Military Review

Coronavirus through the eyes of a chemist

104

For those who are older, a cartoon about a kid who liked to count should be remembered. I remember that kid saved many friends by counting them at the right time. I don’t think that I’ll save someone, but maybe I will inspire hope and show someone of the all-proponents that the measures taken by the government are not at all mediocre throwings and bear fruit.


So what is an epidemic? In an epidemic, the virus is transmitted from person to person, and its spread is proportional to the average number of contacts N at time t per one carrier of the virus and the number of carriers. The average number of contacts is variable, it depends on the population density. Finally, with an increase in the number of patients, the number of contacts leading to infection decreases, because the carrier of the virus increases the likelihood of meeting a sick person and less often he comes across healthy ones. Fortunately, the influence of this factor, as well as a decrease in population density due to extinction, is insignificant and can only appear if the epidemic goes too far.

Similarly, there is an increase in the concentration of the product with certain types of chemical reactions, for example, autocatalytic reactions in solutions. In the same way, the number of fission products in an atomic bomb increases when it is detonated. These processes are driven away by chemists and physicists far and wide, and therefore it is not difficult to describe the dynamics of the epidemic.

So, the increase in the number of cases per unit time dn / dt is proportional to the number of cases: dn / dt = knt.

Here k is a coefficient depending on many conditions: the number of contacts N, population density, and the mass of other factors.

This equation has the solution ln n = kt, or n = exp (kt).

Let me remind you: exp () is an exponent, a number in a power that is an argument to a function.

What does this give us? But here: if you plot the number of cases from time to time, plotting the logarithm of the number of cases along the y axis, you should get not an indistinct ascending squiggle, which can be found on many sites, but an inclined line. The steeper she gets up, the worse things are.

Having collected data on the number of cases in Russia, I built such a schedule and made sure that instead of a straight line he gives two connected segments of straight lines. This means, firstly, that the model is correct, but something happened at the junction of the segments. One segment stretches until the second of April, the second from the second of April to the fifteenth of April (the latest data at the time of my observation), and the slope of the second section is less than the first. What so magical happened on the second of April? And here's what: a week has passed since the start of quarantine activities. And the schedule (its first segment) clearly showed: if quarantine had not started, then there would have been not 24 thousand cases, but at least 100 thousand cases. So the measures taken by the authorities work, and how.

Now the question is increasingly being asked: why is the government slowly itching, why didn’t they immediately introduce the emergency mode, do not conduct mass testing, do not isolate the city from idle travelers? It seems to me that immediate tough measures, not properly prepared, would not give anything, but would only aggravate the problem. It was necessary to prepare the transfer of schoolchildren to a remote place, to convince the population of the need for reclusiveness, to force them to wear masks and hand in hand those who use masks and disinfectants, to establish the production of darkness for the right things, to work out the technology for monitoring violators, to arrange the issuance of passes ... All this is not done instantly, and attempts to solve problems immediately and in an orderly manner would lead to chaos and pandemonium, to attempts to distribute both the social program and the admission to crowds of people who infect each other. I am sure that the nuts will continue to tighten further, but gradually, preventing the thread from breaking.

As for the mass testing, and especially the development of the vaccine, it should be understood that both the first and the second take time. This virus manifested itself for the first time very recently, and one can only wonder how much has been done to combat it. Let's be patient, everything will be finally decided.

All patience, optimism and a disciplined attitude towards yourself and loved ones!
Author:
Photos used:
Mohamed Hassan
104 comments
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  1. Mavrikiy
    Mavrikiy April 16 2020 04: 20 New
    0
    if quarantine had not begun, then there would have been not 24 thousand patients, but at least 100 thousand. So the measures taken by the authorities work, and how.
    Yes, no one doubts. request
    It's just that the liberals turn everyone on, with their freedoms, rights and concentration camp. How it is done, everything is not so. "Power is bad, down with" fool
    1. Tatyana
      Tatyana April 16 2020 05: 11 New
      +8
      Let's be patient, everything will be finally decided.

      Let's hope for the best.
      Life, though not for everyone, continues.
      1. Mitroha
        Mitroha April 16 2020 06: 44 New
        12
        I agree. I try to be sympathetic to different points of view, I appreciate a reasonable and balanced approach to argumentation and counterargumentation. But what is happening now in "these Internet of yours" is already overstepping all boundaries. It is worth barking, humming and bleating. People even in the posts manage to splash saliva.
        Therefore, it is always pleasant to read adequate calm analyzes or opinions, regardless of personal consent with them or not.
        We must remain PEOPLE and still optimistic. All health.
      2. Reptiloid
        Reptiloid April 16 2020 07: 23 New
        +3
        Quote: Tatiana
        Let's be patient, everything will be finally decided.

        Let's hope for the best.
        Life, though not for everyone, continues.

        In our house porches they wash 2 times a day with tools, elevators, their walls, buttons, handles, they process everything, it turns out to be the recommended means that they provided. HOA daily sends reports and photos to the Administration, which is obligated to do all the management companies. There are probably other administrative measures that are not immediately visible to the naked eye. And the result from them should be
        Special people also carry out disinfection once a week.
        1. Evil543
          Evil543 April 16 2020 07: 45 New
          +6
          In, and we are twice a week just wiped with a cloth, and no disinfectant.
          1. Reptiloid
            Reptiloid April 16 2020 07: 56 New
            +1
            Quote: Evil543
            In, and we are twice a week just wiped with a cloth, and no disinfectant.
            SPB, Primorsky district. We have 10 apartments on the site.
          2. Akuzenka
            Akuzenka April 16 2020 09: 46 New
            +4
            You are all lucky. Our entrance even stopped revenge with the introduction of self-isolation.
        2. Gardamir
          Gardamir April 16 2020 08: 30 New
          +3
          In our house porches they wash 2 times a day with tools, elevators, their walls, buttons, handles, they process everything,
          Excuse me, Minister, we have at least just begun to wash more often, it’s already happiness.
          1. Reptiloid
            Reptiloid April 16 2020 08: 34 New
            0
            Quote: Gardamir
            ...... Mr. Minister, we at least just began to wash more often, it’s already happiness.

            laughing I will pass on your joke to the HOA. There are no ministers. Block of flats, 91gr, 10 on-site apartments
        3. Mordvin 3
          Mordvin 3 April 16 2020 08: 36 New
          +1
          Quote: Reptiloid
          In our house porches they wash 2 times a day with the means,

          Yesterday we washed for the first time in a month. And even with "Whiteness". winked
          1. Reptiloid
            Reptiloid April 16 2020 08: 40 New
            0
            Quote: mordvin xnumx
            Quote: Reptiloid
            In our house porches they wash 2 times a day with the means,

            Yesterday we washed for the first time in a month. And even with "Whiteness". winked

            Could more often! After all, you have 5 floors without an elevator? Wash easier starting from the top. Pour more water. am with whiteness or something else
            1. Mordvin 3
              Mordvin 3 April 16 2020 08: 42 New
              +2
              Quote: Reptiloid
              After all, you have 5 floors without an elevator?

              We have 3 floors. Stalinka.
              1. Reptiloid
                Reptiloid April 16 2020 08: 47 New
                0
                Quote: mordvin xnumx
                .... We have 3 floors. Stalinka.

                They can be seen, they think, few people live, no one gets sick? Or maybe they’ll wait for it to wash itself somehow
                1. Mordvin 3
                  Mordvin 3 April 16 2020 08: 49 New
                  +1
                  Quote: Reptiloid
                  Or maybe they’ll wait for it to wash itself somehow

                  In principle, I myself sometimes sweep, but I’m not going to shell out any chemistry, and I can wave a mop too.
                  1. Reptiloid
                    Reptiloid April 16 2020 08: 53 New
                    +2
                    Quote: mordvin xnumx
                    Quote: Reptiloid
                    Or maybe they’ll wait for it to wash itself somehow

                    In principle, I myself sometimes sweep, but I’m not going to shell out any chemistry, and I can wave a mop too.

                    That's it! I don’t know, our HOA buys it myself, or what state program? This will probably be seen on the receipt ...
        4. Severok
          Severok April 18 2020 12: 23 New
          +1
          Quote: Reptiloid
          In our house porches they wash 2 times a day with tools, elevators, their walls, buttons, handles, they process everything

          You are lucky. We haven’t done anything in the woods for about six years now, and they take money in a timely manner, and if you don’t pay, they begin to threaten us like that. And during this winter, the porches were never cleaned at all even once, despite complaints. Goons, this is the main threat to the population, not the coronavirus. Because of their greed, redneckness and unwillingness to fulfill their duties, neither an ambulance nor a fire will approach the houses. The water that we take in the columns has to be carried balancing on narrow paths, but imagine a bed patient in an ambulance? ...
          1. Reptiloid
            Reptiloid April 18 2020 12: 38 New
            0
            Yes, all this is sad. From a year and a half to 6, he lived either in villages, then in the taiga, or in a small town. In one-story buildings, of course, there was nothing communal. Electricity. But --- those houses were departmental, so they repaired, painted, brought some cheap firewood. Parents and others only tried to warm up artificially somehow. They cleared snow, parents and neighbors, there was a house for 4 people. But there was no water at all, they brought it from somewhere, they poured into a barrel near the house, if not the city, but the village
            What about today? Maybe we have a HOA, the board is corrosive, they learn about state programs and are seeking their implementation? Why am I writing --- not to boast, but maybe someone needs this information?
            In our 10th year we had snowdrifts, did not clean ---- suddenly all the janitorial guest workers were fired! The city fired! Then it settled somehow .....
            1. Severok
              Severok April 18 2020 13: 16 New
              +1
              Well no. It’s simply unprofitable for them to maintain old houses with eight apartments, such an eructation of the Yeltsin-Putin reforms ... That’s about whom I can say well - this is about the electrician, and even then the man came on an emergency call, did everything, if we were not to burn ....
              1. Reptiloid
                Reptiloid April 18 2020 15: 04 New
                -1
                What does it mean --- unprofitable? After all, take a rent? So the words of the local comrade are recalled that it is necessary to unite. ...... However, I myself am far from the housing and communal services, but with the naked eye it is now clear that it became better with housing and communal services
    2. Lipchanin
      Lipchanin April 16 2020 05: 28 New
      -11
      Quote: Mavrikiy
      "Power is bad, down with"

      And does nothing
      Nobody "notices" this.
      Now the question is increasingly being asked: why is the government slowly itching, why didn’t they immediately introduce the emergency mode, do not conduct mass testing, do not isolate the city from idle travelers? It seems to me that instant tough measures, not prepared properly, would not give anything, but would only aggravate the problem. It was necessary to prepare the transfer of schoolchildren to a remote place, to convince the population of the need for reclusiveness, to force them to wear masks and hand on those who use masks and disinfectants, to establish the production of darkness for the right things, to work out the technology for monitoring violators, to arrange the issuance of passes ... All this is not done instantly, and attempts to solve problems immediately and in an orderly manner would lead to chaos and pandemonium, to attempts to distribute both the social program and the admission to crowds of people who infect each other.
      1. Ilya-spb
        Ilya-spb April 16 2020 06: 19 New
        -4
        I agree! And the article is very interesting. Nice to read the opinion of the scientist.

        And on our site only the president is scolded. I did not screw the nuts, then I gave little money ...
        1. Lipchanin
          Lipchanin April 16 2020 06: 23 New
          -5
          Quote: Ilya-spb
          I didn’t screw the nuts

          That twisted so that poor liberals have nothing to breathe
          1. Ilya-spb
            Ilya-spb April 16 2020 06: 25 New
            -4
            Maybe it’s hard to breathe because of the coronovirus?)))

            The behavior of liberals during the difficult period of the country's life is immoral. They are only able to crap in social networks.
            1. Lipchanin
              Lipchanin April 16 2020 06: 30 New
              -2
              Quote: Ilya-spb

              The behavior of liberals during the difficult period of the country's life is immoral.



              1. bycharashkO
                bycharashkO April 16 2020 14: 05 New
                0
                I wonder what kind of crap and liberals are so actively minus you.
    3. Pravodel
      Pravodel April 16 2020 08: 32 New
      +5
      Great article. For the first time, the opinion of a truly understanding scientist and the dynamics of infection development is presented. Infectionists who speak from all screens and not screens are good people, but they are doctors, and, as you know, "humanities", including doctors, are not friendly with mathematics. They are well versed in the mechanism of existence, reproduction of the virus, in the mechanism of division and reproduction, but the mathematical calculations lead them immediately to a stupor. Therefore, doctors cannot answer the question: what is the dynamics of the spread of the virus and when to expect a plateau and a decrease in infection. The answer to this question can only be given by mathematicians, physicists, chemists, etc. - scientists for whom the matapparat is the main tool in cognition.
      Here are some initial conditions for the spread of the virus in Russia.
      1. At the time of the outbreak of the virus epidemic in China, Russia was not infected.
      2. During the beginning and development of the virus in the world, our compatriots went abroad to relax in the sun, including countries with developed development: China, South-East Asia, then Europe, America, etc.
      3. The beginning of the closure of countries and the return of our "sunbathers" from countries with a developed spread of the virus. The number of those who returned from these countries in mid-March, according to V.V. - 1 million 300 thousand people. , were taken out and are still taking out. With this in mind, the total number of returnees can be estimated at at least 2 million.
      4. The return of compatriots occurred mainly through air traffic. Moreover, the presence of even one infected or virus carrier in an airplane, taking into account the duration of a flight from China, regions of South-East Asia, immediately leads to infection of all those flying with it on the airplane, including crew members. Later, upon returning from Europe, the number of infected or virus carriers during landing should have been significantly more than 1 person. From here, with the necessity, the whole plane from Europe, America is completely infected, including the internal space of the plane. Whether or not disinfecting measures were taken is a separate issue. If the infected plane took off on a repeated flight, and if there were no infected on the repeated flight, then they appeared when they returned in the infected plane.
      5. Since early April, quarantine and isolation have been introduced. But before that, all these returnees were not isolated, and were not quarantined. The bulk settled in Moscow and St. Petersburg, but some scattered across the regions. With this in mind, all those who traveled to the regions met, and they traveled either by train or by plane, were also infected - auto-infected
      6. If the arrivals in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and the regions were isolated, then the epidemic spread at the expense of auto-infected people; An example is infection from one of the doctors who returned from a hot country, which immediately went to work in a clinic. How many people she managed to infect, a mathematical question.
      7. Subject to paragraphs 1–4, the first initial condition is the arrival of the last infected person in Russia and the countdown from this is 14 days.
      8. Given the auto-infection in Russia, the second initial condition is the identification and isolation of all sick, infected, and virus carriers. As this process develops, there will be a gradual decrease in the number of infected people, a decrease in the number of infected people and a weakening of the quarantine regime. After identifying and isolating the last infected after 14 days, the epidemic will be completely stopped.
      9. What needs to be done first:
      9.1. Restriction of the virus from outside: Taking into account that the return to the territory of Russia in small quantities is still ongoing, in the places of arrival, primarily Moscow, St. Petersburg, it is necessary to forcibly isolate all arrivals, along with the crew and contacts, upon observation for 14 days upon arrival. Measure
      9. 2. Stopping the focus of infection: Given the maximum number of infected in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and certain parts of the regions, to prevent the spread of the virus throughout Russia, strict isolation of Moscow and St. Petersburg from the rest of Russia and infected parts of the regions from uninfected parts is necessary.
      9.3 Hard quarantine in foci of infection, blocking auto-infection.
      Сonclusion: how long the quarantine lasts and when to wait for a decrease in the number of infections.
      1. When stopping the foci of infection according to claim 9 and introducing hard quarantine, a decrease in the infected in the foci of infection will begin immediately after the introduction of hard quarantine.
      2. Within 14 days, the epidemic in the foci of infection will decline and 14 days after the introduction of hard quarantine, quarantine measures can be weakened.
      3. The rest of Russia. Detection of infected by universal vaccination and isolation of infected and contact. Allows you to stop the spread of infection, reduce the number of infected and reach a consistent decrease. Complete cessation of the epidemic - 14 days after the detection of the last infected and sick.
      Conclusion: only the severity of infectious measures can stop the epidemic in the worst case scenario now.
      1. Klingon
        Klingon April 16 2020 09: 04 New
        +1
        1. The dynamics of a pandemic are not predicted by doctors, but by special institutions such as the German RKI (Robert Koch Institute) and there are virologists and biologists, chemists and extras, and many others. so it’s not the job of doctors to do statistics. Doctors work to treat patients and not make predictions. The doctor can give a prognosis for a particular patient, whether he will be cured or not well, or in the local group of patients, for example, in the intensive care unit.
        2. Well, well done. What are you going to vaccinate against coronavirus? Do you have a ready certified vaccine?
        1. bycharashkO
          bycharashkO April 16 2020 14: 10 New
          0
          Quote: Klingon
          Well, well done. What are you going to vaccinate against coronavirus?

          Well, a person who doesn’t happen to have described himself? instead of "testing" I printed "vaccination" ..
        2. AK1972
          AK1972 April 16 2020 15: 04 New
          -1
          Quote: Klingon
          Well, well done. What are you going to vaccinate against coronavirus? Do you have a ready certified vaccine?

          Sorry to interfere. Are there any vaccines for viruses? If they exist, then where are the vaccines for swine, bird flu, H1N1, SARS, MERS, the same Ebola ?. Indeed, funds were allocated for their development by WHO and the funds are not small. The second question is where did the above diseases go in the absence of vaccines? collective immunity? Question No. 3 - is there any statistics on mortality from complications from ordinary seasonal seasonal SARS epidemics, it would be interesting to compare. There are many doctors on the site, if not difficult, explain to the techie.
          1. awdrgy
            awdrgy April 16 2020 20: 44 New
            0
            Statistics are interested "in the field", so to speak, from the type of influenza with complications in the form of pneumonia, which has been going on for the 4th year already, does not differ much, although I said it mildly, the dock was more determined, although we do not have Moscow, there is not enough data yet and then I had a conversation with only one specialist, albeit not an ordinary doctor
          2. Klingon
            Klingon April 16 2020 20: 54 New
            0
            from influenza (influenza) from types A, B the vaccine is only seasonal, TK. new strains are constantly appearing. from viral hepatitis type A, B (from C, D not present) From tick-borne encephalitis (also a virus) there is a vaccine with stable immunity for 10 years. There is a swine flu virus, I don’t have any information from SARS, there is also an Anti-Rabies (from rabies, also a virus), from smallpox (virus), measles, rubella, polio. Many animal viral diseases also have specific vaccines. By the way, for example, a vaccine for CORONAVIRUS gastroenteritis in dogs. I'm telling you as a veterinarian. this is my first VO. and now I'm in human - I work as a medicine. with people, I mean.
            from influenza (Influenza), the annual mortality is higher than now from the coronavirus, and the mortality from malaria is even higher.
            Complications arise against the background of existing chronic diseases, coronary insufficiency, diabetes, obstructive pulmonary diseases, peripheral sclerotic vascular lesions (this is the reward of smokers), autoimmune diseases, secondary bacterial infection may develop, kidneys may fail, etc. all these complications can occur even with the usual flu
  2. Mikhail m
    Mikhail m April 16 2020 04: 30 New
    13
    Everything would be good if harsh measures were taken for patients spreading the infection. But the distribution mostly includes healthy and uninvolved people. And to prove innocence is impossible.
    1. Lipchanin
      Lipchanin April 16 2020 05: 25 New
      -12
      Quote: Mikhail M
      if tough measures were taken for patients spreading the infection.

      Do they specifically transmit it? Go and sneeze and cough at all?
      Tough measures should be taken for those who are already isolated and know that they are infected, but escaped from quarantine
      1. depressant
        depressant April 16 2020 08: 09 New
        0
        Yes, there was such a dude in Japan: knowing that he was infected with the coronavirus and the disease had gone far, he walked everywhere, specially sneezed and coughed at people. Apparently, from an evil consideration "I will die, but I will take you with me too." Caught, wanted to judge, but he took and died.
        1. Lipchanin
          Lipchanin April 16 2020 08: 14 New
          0
          When AIDS came to the USSR, they also found such an individual. Avenged so
          I also know the case with us. It was somewhere in the late 70s. One person, in order to take revenge on his ex, paid another person who was sick with gonorrhea to fuck that lady, which he successfully did. Then the first one spread this "news" to all his and her friends
    2. g1washntwn
      g1washntwn April 16 2020 09: 23 New
      +4
      Do you know the word "prevention"? We have already updated the information that asymptomatic carriers are 30% of all cases. The overwhelming majority is not even aware of this.
      Well, and who has already received a positive result of the analysis on the cove and continues to hang around their business - a bacteriological terrorist, no less.
  3. Thrifty
    Thrifty April 16 2020 05: 03 New
    +7
    The author at least showed his schedule, would argue about the results! And so, in essence, he is right - if certain measures give a certain lasting effect, then you just need to observe these security measures!
  4. Ross xnumx
    Ross xnumx April 16 2020 05: 20 New
    +8
    And the schedule (its first segment) clearly showed: if quarantine had not started, then there would have been not 24 cases, but at least 100 cases. So the measures taken by the authorities work, and how.

    From this place more details:
    Over the past 1175 hours, 56 new cases of coronavirus infection were detected in Russia in 19 regions, the operational headquarters for combating COVID-1154 informs. The day before, 8672 new cases were reported. The total number of confirmed cases of coronavirus infection in the country reached 81 - infection was detected in 85 out of XNUMX regions.


    The number of patients with coronavirus in Russia as of April 15, 2020 reached 21160 people. This is evidenced by data provided by the regional operational headquarters to control the spread of infection.
    Over the past day, the number of patients with COVID-19 increased by 2808 or 16%. The leaders in the number of patients with COVID-19 are Moscow (13 002, +1489), Moscow Region (2315, +460), St. Petersburg (799, +121).
    More than 150 cases of the disease to date have been recorded in the Republic of Komi (305, +97), Nizhny Novgorod (292, +68) and Leningrad (190, +35) regions, Krasnodar Territory (215, +5).
    The number of people recovering from COVID-19 is changing with approximately the same dynamics: over the past day, the number of people who have recovered increased by 236 or 17%. The total number of recoveries reached 1709.
    For the entire time of the epidemic, 173 people became victims of coronavirus. The number of tests exceeded 1,4 million.
    According to the statement of the head of Rospotrebnadzor Anna Popova, 90 thousand studies on coronavirus are carried out per day. For comparison, only 2 thousand tests were done a month ago.
    1. Pike
      Pike April 16 2020 07: 40 New
      +6
      Thanks for the visualization, otherwise the author for some reason hesitated to provide his "direct".
      Otherwise it sounds like a joke (is it a joke?): "The growth rate of the number of cases begins to accelerate at a slower pace."
      1. The comment was deleted.
    2. astepanov
      April 16 2020 11: 42 New
      +1
      Trying to insert a graph. Does not work. Alas, old, poorly versed ... Maybe someone will tell? I have it in * .jpg format
      1. Vitaly gusin
        Vitaly gusin April 16 2020 15: 18 New
        +1
        Quote: astepanov
        Maybe someone tell me? I have it in * .jpg format

        1. astepanov
          April 16 2020 15: 42 New
          0
          Thank. Here is the schedule:
          Please note: the vertical scale is logarithmic. I took the statistics from the site https://yandex.ru/maps/covid19?ll=41.775580%2C54.894027&z=3
          1. andranick
            andranick April 16 2020 16: 15 New
            +2
            The change in growth was not affected by quarantine, but by the change in the arrival of Russian citizens from other countries. Here is the information from the report:

            Link to the report: https: // stopkoronavirus.rf/ai/html/3/attach/2020-04-16_coronavirus_government_report.pdf

            And so your and my calculations coincide, although I thought a little differently

            1. andranick
              andranick April 16 2020 16: 45 New
              0
              Blue graph - shows the percentage increase in patients for 1 day in relation to the total number of patients. 22% descend to 15%
              The brown graph is the percentage of fatal cases to the sum of fatal cases and recoveries at the moment. The schedule is somewhat from the crafty, but nonetheless ...
              The yellow graph is the percentage of those who passed through the disease with one or another outcome to the total number of cases.
            2. astepanov
              April 16 2020 17: 09 New
              -1
              Quote: andranick
              The change in growth was not affected by quarantine, but by the change in the arrival of Russian citizens from other countries.

              Judging by the schedule you provided, by the end of March 284 thousand people arrived. By that time, the proportion of infected people found in none of the countries in the world exceeded 0,05% (and in Thailand and Vietnam it was much less). Even if we take it to the maximum, then no more than 140 people have come to the obvious carriers of the infection. But by April 2, the fracture point of the identified patients in Russia, there were already over 3500 people. Those. the process was already going on as self-sustaining, almost independent of the number of new arrivals from behind a hillock of infected people.
              Another thing is more interesting: to estimate how many asymptomatic patients are wandering and what is the infection rate. It seems to me that, since the dynamics of the disease are now known (latent asymptomatic stage, active phase and their duration), it is possible to estimate the number of distributors surrounding us.
              1. andranick
                andranick April 16 2020 18: 18 New
                0
                Perhaps you are right. Only public information is available to me, and imported cases prevailed in it until the end of March.
                It is possible to estimate by asymptomatic, but there is a significant probability to draw the wrong conclusions. Too little data. In the Krasnodar Territory, it seems that until April 9 all cases were imported, according to the summary for today - all contact cases.
    3. astepanov
      April 16 2020 13: 04 New
      +1
      Otherwise it sounds like a joke (is it a joke?): "The growth rate of the number of cases begins to accelerate at a slower pace."
      Alas, this is precisely so: it is the growth rates that are slowing down. If you remember the basics of mathematics, then the derivative of a function is precisely the rate of its change, and the exponent has any derivative - this one is also an exponent.
      Thanks for the visualization, otherwise the author for some reason hesitated to provide his "direct".
      Ross 42 has graphs in the coordinates of time - the number of infected, and it is from the site where I took the data from. Try changing the coordinates: instead of the number of infected, take the logarithm of that number, no matter what basis. You will get a line of two line segments with one with one "knee". I have carried out a detailed analysis, but for some reason I cannot insert the graph into the comments. I would be grateful if you teach.
      1. Kisa
        Kisa April 16 2020 18: 05 New
        -1
        derivative logarithms .... comrade we would show on fingers))) the only time when mathematics came in handy in my life - when I dropped the keys into the toilet into the airport, I bent the wire by the integral to get it ...
        1. astepanov
          April 16 2020 19: 05 New
          -1
          Quote: kitty
          we would show on fingers
          It's easy to show the "goat" on the fingers. And some more pieces that can be beaten.
    4. Mikhail m
      Mikhail m April 16 2020 18: 21 New
      +1
      On a logarithmic scale, which the author speaks of, the exponent looks straight. This is in high school passed. In my time passed, now I do not know.
  5. Lipchanin
    Lipchanin April 16 2020 05: 22 New
    -12
    I built such a schedule

    Well show
    and made sure that instead of a line he gives two connected segments of lines.

    I want to make sure too
    But in general, the article is good, optimistic.
    . Let's be patient, everything will be finally decided.

    God grant that it be so
    I am sure that the nuts will continue to tighten further, but gradually, preventing the thread from breaking.

    Ok, endure yes
    1. depressant
      depressant April 16 2020 08: 57 New
      +1
      Bear it, my friend Lipchanin? What is it like? The people as a whole can endure, having lost a number of fellow citizens. But the individual cannot endure. For example, in the case when the carrier of the coronavirus has walked nearby. And so there weren’t many such carriers, it was necessary to place all fellow citizens arriving from abroad under strict militarized protection, harshly suppressing attempts to get out. And quarantined, based on parole. And the carriers escaped, exponentially increasing the number of carriers. The question is, did the government have no information that coronavirus-19 is a deadly disease that is far more contagious than the known types of flu? Sorry, I won’t believe it! Criminal negligence? Whose? And now the disease raced across the country ...
      I am the same individual who does not share the optimism of the author. Because my lungs wheeze and dizziness does not stop. And if I go out into the street, in the current epidemiological situation, the virus will find me, I will not survive. From what the people will endure, in the next world it will not be easier for me. And whom should I thank for the self-arrest?
  6. Jingibi
    Jingibi April 16 2020 05: 38 New
    13
    Interesting article, but somewhat illogical. The schedule and stuff is fine. One can not argue with this. But why the second part of the article about the justification of legal lawlessness? Actual control measures and their legal justification are different things. Let's take a closer look at the second part. The Supreme Commander sent most of the population to rest with a broad gesture, setting non-working days. All. No more. And the regimes of "self-restriction", "passes" are a gag to the regional authorities. And I understand them - Verzovyn sent everyone, at the expense of the employer, to rest. Having indicated verbally that these are measures "against the plague." Having heard the regionals started thinking about "increased readiness", "special measures". All this was fruitful from the wheels. There are no such legal institutions in the country. More precisely, they were drawn along the way. Because a banquet at the expense of institutions.
    1. DMB 75
      DMB 75 April 16 2020 05: 49 New
      16
      I agree with you, it’s just that the Kremlin shifted responsibility to the Posadsky boyars. And quarantine is introduced throughout the country, and not in individual counties. And yes - a banquet at the expense of institutions. This is very convenient - they will survive, well, well, we are great, but no - they themselves are to blame there, we warned them. This is not the state’s policy, this is the policy of anarchy - save yourself, who can. And who can’t? Yesterday, 12 thousand people said they would give, it also looks like half measure, but if a person received more ?

      Somewhere the horses dance to the beat
      Reluctantly and smoothly.
      It's all wrong along the road
      And in the end - even more so.
      And neither the church nor the tavern -
      Nothing is holy!
      No guys it's not like that
      All wrong guys!
      1. Lipchanin
        Lipchanin April 16 2020 06: 22 New
        -14
        Quote: DMB 75
        I agree with you, it’s just that the Kremlin shifted responsibility to the Posad boyars.

        He did not "shift the responsibility", but gave them the authority to effectively manage the region.
        The liberals were whining about this all the time, that Putin had taken all his power.
        Now the governors have been given carte blanche to fight the epidemic and again "everything is not so"
        1. Jingibi
          Jingibi April 16 2020 06: 38 New
          14
          The heads of regions have the authority to introduce a regional emergency. This is the only one, similar to adequate, given to him by law. At least one subject name where such a regime is introduced? No? Not delivered? Sorry. And all from the same. No compensation for the consequences.
          1. Lipchanin
            Lipchanin April 16 2020 06: 45 New
            -10
            Quote: jingibi
            one subject, where is such a regime introduced? No? Not delivered? Sorry.

            Here are the data on the Lipetsk region
            Infected
            85 + 11
            Passed away
            0
            Recovered
            15 + 3

            Enter emergency mode?
            1. Jingibi
              Jingibi April 16 2020 07: 02 New
              11
              A counter question, but what about introducing a high-availability mode and isolation itself? And where is the logic and measure? Oh yes! There is such a person - the Chief Medical Officer, called. It’s only a pity that he can enter quarantine
              1. Lipchanin
                Lipchanin April 16 2020 07: 11 New
                -9
                Quote: jingibi
                A counter question, but what about introducing a high-availability mode and isolation itself?

                Read it yourself
                Well, everything is described in great detail
                https://www.interfax.ru/chto-takoe-chs-chp-samoizolyacziya-i-karantin.html
                1. Jingibi
                  Jingibi April 16 2020 07: 43 New
                  +6
                  Did you get to know each other? Better, of course, with the regulatory framework, with magazine extracts. But what is there. So, the rhymes of isolation itself in the regions began to be introduced before such a concept generally appeared in the law. And about compensation, the article is correctly written. Compensation only in case of emergency. Therefore, you yourself will analyze and separate the grains from the chaff.
                  1. Lipchanin
                    Lipchanin April 16 2020 08: 24 New
                    -5
                    Quote: jingibi
                    Did you meet

                    Met
                    Better, of course, with the regulatory framework, with magazine extracts.

                    Means not read, time about "magazine pomace." speak
                    . So, the rhymes of isolation itself in the regions began to be introduced before such a concept generally appeared in the law

                    Yes, there is no such law on self-isolation.
                    This once again suggests that one hundred you do not read what they give you, but you reason
                    1. Jingibi
                      Jingibi April 16 2020 09: 22 New
                      +2
                      Federal Law of 01.04.2020 N 98-FZ "On Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts of the Russian Federation on the Prevention and Elimination of Emergencies". He introduced the expansion of the powers of the Government of the Russian Federation and refers, in essence, the "threat of emergence" to the grounds for the introduction of a high alert regime.
                      Well, also a question with a preamble on the "filling".
                      Part 3 of Article 55 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation establishes that
                      Rights and freedoms of man and citizen may be limited federal law only to the extent that it is necessary in order to protect the foundations of the constitutional system, morality, health, rights and legitimate interests of others, to ensure the defense of the country and the security of the state. [/ quote]
                      Do not tell me since when the decrees of shabby governors can affect my right to freedom of movement? Federal law has not yet introduced such restrictions.
                      Do not argue with a lawyer, much less give him advice to read magazines. Read the laws right away, it's more efficient.
        2. Sgt.
          Sgt. April 16 2020 07: 49 New
          +8
          Citizen, at least in terminology you will understand what "liberalism" is and who are "liberals", and only then, on reflection, scribble your messages without clogging up the forum.
          Putin, by the way, considers himself a liberal
          1. Lipchanin
            Lipchanin April 16 2020 08: 26 New
            -5
            Citizen, there are liberals like Putin, and there are liberals like these
        3. Gardamir
          Gardamir April 16 2020 08: 44 New
          +4
          liberals
          In vain you started these games. There is no VO, and it seems that there have never been imaginary liberals. And Putin, provides financial assistance to banks, this is what allegedly is his fight against coronovirus.
          1. Lipchanin
            Lipchanin April 16 2020 09: 02 New
            -3
            Quote: Gardamir
            And Putin provides financial assistance to banks,

            And where do you get your salary and pension from?
            this allegedly consists in his alleged struggle with the coronovirus.

            Well yes. All left to chance
            I noticed for a long time that your position in life is "Not a good word about what is happening in the country."
            Solid dirt in the comments.
            The word Putin in a positive comment for you is like a red rag for a bull.
            Everything that is being done in the country of good is perceived only from the negative side. When they write about the bad, your day. Bile and dirt are pouring
            I feel sorry for you. You are a loser in life and therefore do not see and do not want to perceive anything positive in life
            More to communicate, read, or comment on your clots of anger, I will not.
            The last request. Do not text me anymore. Minus to diarrhea, but just rid me of your highs
            1. Gardamir
              Gardamir April 16 2020 10: 01 New
              +4
              your life position
              My position in life, Great Russia. Your greatness officials.
              And I never insulted you, mister trading in honor and dignity
      2. Jingibi
        Jingibi April 16 2020 06: 35 New
        14
        This money will be allocated to enterprises of industries particularly affected by the plague. The list of such industries is approved by the Government. Feel the taste? I suppose not a baker with a pharmacist will be on this list.
        1. Lipchanin
          Lipchanin April 16 2020 07: 12 New
          -13
          Quote: jingibi
          I suppose not a baker with a pharmacist will be on this list.

          And you don’t think and go to the Internet and see who is on the list
          1. Jingibi
            Jingibi April 16 2020 07: 29 New
            +3
            On duty, I get acquainted with regulatory acts. Not delivered yet
    2. flicker
      flicker April 19 2020 17: 51 New
      0
      The supreme gesture sent a large part of the population to rest, setting non-working days.
      Declaring a mode of self-isolation. Those. He considered that he was addressing not to CHILDREN, but to ADULT and REASONABLE citizens, counting on their consciousness, on their concern for their own health (and the health of their relatives).
      And the fact that citizens turned out to be not adults and reasonable, but children - this is not to power.
      ---
      Claims to power are optimization of health care, education, etc. etc.
      Try zagani forcibly (they were already whining when, after arrival, they were placed at camp sites - they say, they are deprived of their rights and freedoms, etc. And many people sang along - they say yes.
      Now these many re-singers have subsided.
      ---
      In general, the attitude to the coronavirus now and a month ago in the population has also changed.
  7. Brylevsky
    Brylevsky April 16 2020 05: 42 New
    +2
    The author, please be so kind: provide, for clarity, the graph that you received, as well as its calculation and link is not a source of statistical data. The fact is that “this is not so straightforward” with this virus: in Sweden, for example, no significant restrictions were introduced, and yet the percentage of people infected there is almost the lowest.
    So, the increase in the number of cases per unit time dn / dt is proportional to the number of cases: dn / dt = knt.

    Is this if we are dealing with a natural focal infection? And if we assume that people ... are intentionally infected? Remember the plot of the well-known game “Day R”, where some “agents of the State Department” sprayed some rubbish from aerosol cans at the right time in Russian cities, as a result of which the population of our country began to die in large numbers? How then will the above mathematical model work? Or is it not a model, but a Stopudian law of nature? I'm just not up to date on this topic ... tell me if it's not difficult.
    1. AUL
      AUL April 16 2020 10: 25 New
      +4
      You know, when the author reduced the model of a very multifactorial phenomenon to a linear equation of one variable, I had strong suspicions of his competence in this topic!
    2. Vadim237
      Vadim237 April 16 2020 11: 46 New
      0
      In Sweden, no restrictions have been introduced - it’s not yet evening, the wave has not reached them.
  8. savage1976
    savage1976 April 16 2020 05: 54 New
    -2
    I’m glad that not all authors at VO are in the camp of all-propellers and understand that there is a big difference between Wishlist and opportunities, that doctors, IVL, masks, an egg appear in stores not by magic.
    1. Gardamir
      Gardamir April 16 2020 08: 52 New
      +2
      that not by a wave of a magic wand, doctors, mechanical ventilation, masks, an egg appear in stores.
      You are right, the titanic work has been done, I had to wave the oars on the galleys more than once in order to optimize medicine.
      And now the Question! Here, many loved to throw a show-off, "we can repeat". So if tomorrow is in battle, then everything will be the same, suddenly it turns out, no weapons, no cartridges. It will be, as with masks, now everyone sews themselves, then you will have to make weapons yourself.
      1. savage1976
        savage1976 April 16 2020 09: 00 New
        -2
        It will not be like with masks, with masks for a week or two they can’t sit at home and the panties get dirty from the mere mention of the coronavirus. in case of war, most of these repeaters in the hayloft will stumble.
      2. Vadim237
        Vadim237 April 16 2020 11: 53 New
        -1
        Now the war is completely different radically different from those that were 70 years ago - everything is decided by high-precision weapons; minimum consumption of missiles and ammunition; maximum efficiency; and cannon fodder has nothing to do on it.
  9. 7,62h54
    7,62h54 April 16 2020 06: 34 New
    +8
    "The screws will continue to tighten" - this is the only thing that the Dear Leader and Co. can do. Spin and wait.
    1. Lipchanin
      Lipchanin April 16 2020 06: 46 New
      -10
      Quote: 7,62x54
      "The screws will continue to tighten" - this is the only thing that the Dear Leader and Co. can do. Spin and wait.

      And who here constantly dreams of an "iron hand"?
      Wrong again?
      1. 7,62h54
        7,62h54 April 16 2020 06: 51 New
        +9
        I somehow got used to it without a hand, in a natural way. And you are more careful with the "iron", rub something.
        1. Lipchanin
          Lipchanin April 16 2020 07: 14 New
          -12
          Quote: 7,62x54
          I’m used to it without a hand, in a natural way

          And I, too, somehow do without her
          I mean those who every day dream of an "iron hand" in Russia
  10. parusnik
    parusnik April 16 2020 07: 39 New
    +5
    Yes, everything is correct, if food prices did not rise as the dollar exchange rate ... The guarantor promised to suspend the price increase, what it would look like ..
    1. polar fox
      polar fox April 16 2020 08: 05 New
      +5
      Quote: parusnik
      .Garant promised to suspend price increases

      laughing He has promised this for 20 years .... request
      1. Ingvar 72
        Ingvar 72 April 16 2020 08: 34 New
        +5
        Quote: polar fox
        He has promised this for 20 years.

        And he brought the Russian proverb to the point of absurdity "wait for the promised three years"! good drinks
  11. Svarog
    Svarog April 16 2020 07: 55 New
    +2
    Let's be patient, everything will be finally decided.

    Of course, everything will be decided .. and we will tolerate, we have been suffering for 30 years and here we will endure ..
  12. alstr
    alstr April 16 2020 08: 32 New
    +6
    In fact, claims to power are simple:
    1. The quarantine arriving at the initial period (February-March) is not organized. Those. he was, but in fact he was not. There were many cases when they flew from abroad to Moscow and it was not so much that they were quarantined even by checking the temperature. And then they traveled around the country.

    2. The entire financial burden is shifted to the shoulders of the working people themselves. All measures are belated and insufficient. And sometimes mocking (hi mortgage tax holidays)

    3. General mess at all levels.
  13. Maks1995
    Maks1995 April 16 2020 08: 51 New
    +2
    And, again, general reasoning.
    Something unexpected is missing from the chemist.

    That quarantine, pah, self-isolation (quarantine is not there) gives results - this is a no brainer.
  14. Alanart
    Alanart April 16 2020 10: 32 New
    0
    Yes indeed. Although, as they say, in logarithmic coordinates anything can be reduced to a linear form. But actually there are three plots. The first not very noticeable fracture in the region of March 20. About this, for some reason no one talks, but this is the day when the chief sanitary doctor announced quarantine and ordered to isolate the arrivals from behind the cordon. Yes, quarantine according to article 31 of Federal Law No. 52 has been introduced :)
    1. Jingibi
      Jingibi April 16 2020 11: 41 New
      +1
      We have introduced quarantine of the state border. These are still slightly different events.
      1. Alanart
        Alanart April 16 2020 14: 15 New
        0
        Well, by law, we have no other. And in fact, this role played. I here, following the example of the author, played with excel.
        If as he allocate 2 sites until April 1 and after. That approximation gives today about 89,5 thousand instead of 28 thousand. And if for three - until March 20 (quarantine order), March 20-31 (before isolation) and from April 1 to today, then without quarantine and isolation would be 197 thousand, without isolation 59,5 thousand
        And if you look into the future, then according to the author's model on April 24, with "everything as it is" it will be 96 thousand, without isolation it should have been 533 thousand. If you divide like me, then the numbers are 96 thousand, 304 thousand and 1,43 million: )
  15. rica1952
    rica1952 April 16 2020 11: 04 New
    +1
    The author of what quarantine you are talking about, was in quarantine in Kamoizolyatsiya, Vietnam, the result we see is the so-called self-isolation, we also see the largest increase in infected people, the infection time is delayed but the result is not inevitable.
    1. Vadim237
      Vadim237 April 16 2020 11: 57 New
      0
      We have an increase in infected patients because two weeks of incubation alteration have passed since the beginning of their infection - let's see what happens in the fifth week.
    2. Alanart
      Alanart April 16 2020 14: 18 New
      0
      I already wrote above, if there were no isolation there would be 89 thousand, not 28, and in another week 533 thousand: =) Well, of course, according to the mathematical model.
  16. faterdom
    faterdom April 16 2020 12: 48 New
    +3
    Everything seems to be so, but the measure was obvious in March: "Sheremetyevo-2" flights from the EU and the USA were in quarantine for 2 weeks. Forced and without sentimentality. Right there at the airport. Field camp, disinfection and so on ...
    Only the status interfered: the "elite" - they are the most noisy, the most famous, sometimes influential in their provinces or on TV, you can't do that with them, they need a "vacation", even if they go to Sochi, since there is money - this is the most important !
    And in this case, they are only biological objects of increased danger, stripes on them, or a deputy badge.
  17. ser56
    ser56 April 16 2020 12: 55 New
    +1
    It’s reasonable, but the article would be adorned with a chart, which is mentioned ... hi
    1. Alanart
      Alanart April 16 2020 16: 59 New
      0
      I did (s)
      https://cont.ws/@alanart/1644736
      1. ser56
        ser56 April 16 2020 17: 14 New
        -1
        "So, here is the dynamics of the number of cases in logarithmic coordinates."
        noticeably better, but these are semilogarithmic coordinates repeat Only one coordinate with ln hi
    2. O. Bender
      O. Bender April 16 2020 17: 12 New
      0
      So yes, I needed a graph. Now, without source data, I can’t calculate using the formula, but it’s a pity, at the same time I would check the author
  18. O. Bender
    O. Bender April 16 2020 17: 10 New
    0
    In the news in Russia 1, today in the news section of Saratov, the announcer, it was the announcer who suggested dropping off the population in order to build a hospital ???? !!!! for the treatment of those infected with coronovirus. I am in quiet horror ..... The air time is from 13.00 In general, they had dinner with their family. And Skabeeva had a program on the table, a rating table for the tests for the crown hung. First place in the USA, I don’t remember the numbers, and second place, attention! Russia, with the amount of 1 million. 400 thousand. tests. All of the above, seen and heard personally in the presence of his wife and children. What?
  19. Ryaruav
    Ryaruav April 16 2020 21: 18 New
    0
    if the virus would be created by man naturally with the help of computers then after some time people using the same computers would find an antidote, but nature creates such organisms that our flights into space multiply by zero in this way in the match humanity against nature, nature strikes and while 2: 0 in favor of nature (in the USSR, I think the first minimized foci and in a short time found anti-pieces, the managers who completed courses in the USA are completely dumb) for Mishustin there are less and less pensioners
  20. Klingon
    Klingon April 16 2020 22: 36 New
    +2
    Quote: Michael m
    Everything would be good if harsh measures were taken for patients spreading the infection. But the distribution mostly includes healthy and uninvolved people. And to prove innocence is impossible.

    at you everything is as simple as separating patients from healthy ones .... for this you need to test ALL and FREE for the virus. And not like in the Russian Federation - you want to test-pay (which during a pandemic is generally absurd and criminal in fact), but
    how will you separate flies from cutlets? if a person is just an inert carrier of the virus, without signs of disease? he is so left to them may not even get sick
  21. NordUral
    NordUral April 17 2020 12: 03 New
    0
    To the quarantine - YES, but to the electronic concentration camp that we are being prepared - NO! Do not confuse white with black, author.
    1. The comment was deleted.
  22. sniperino
    sniperino April 18 2020 13: 03 New
    -1
    perhaps I will inspire hope and show someone of the all-crawler ...
    Dear author! To stop here (in the media) the pedaling of the depressive-hypochondriacal syndrome by those whom you kindly call "all-consuming people" will not work with the help of such education. Few of them do not understand that their actions contribute to the deterioration of the epidemiological situation. For them, the worse the better. They can only be stopped by strict and rigorous application of the federal law "On the sanitary and epidemiological welfare of the population." Rospotrebnadzor needs to read it carefullyhi
  23. The comment was deleted.