"We have not encountered anything like this in our lives": the IMF gave economic forecasts for 2020

The International Monetary Fund presented its forecasts for the global economy, as well as for the economies of the regions for 2020. The forecast, as expected, came out substantially adjusted as to what happened at the beginning of the year.

According to the IMF, the economy in some regions of the world will collapse in a way that has not collapsed since the time of the American Great Depression. In particular, fund forecasters believe that US GDP will lose about 2020% in 5,9. An even more significant decline is forecasted for the European economy - 7,5%. In general, on the planet, according to fund analysts, GDP will decline by about 3%. And this is with a relatively favorable development of events.

IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath:

This is the largest recession since 1929. The world has changed a lot over the past three months, since our last update of the global economic forecast published in January. A rare disaster, a pandemic, led to the tragic death of a large number of people. While countries took measures to quarantine and socially distance themselves in order to curb the pandemic, the world entered into a deep recession, isolation. We have not encountered anything like this in our lives.

A separate forecast at the IMF was given for Italy. Its economy is expected to decline by 2020% in 9,1.
In France, they prepared to reduce GDP by 7,2% at the end of the year.

The forecast for Germany is minus 7% of GDP for the year.

Earlier in Russia, a forecast appeared that in 2020 the fall in GDP could become a double-digit number - about 10%.

Comments

[Doccor18]

It is strange why Italy has a 9% drop in GDP and 10% in Russia. In Russia, however, the situation is much more stable in terms of epidemiological situation.

[Stils]

It's all about the collapse of commodity markets. It is unclear how long this pandemic will last, so it’s a lot of stupidity to count now how many will fall. The pace of demand recovery will also not be clear.

[Olgovich]

Quote: Stils

it’s a lot of nonsense to count now how many will fall. The pace of demand recovery will also not be clear.

great stupidity is to make predictions today and listen to them.
If only because the situation is unique and there is simply no experience.

[Stas157]

According to the IMF, the economy in some regions of the world will collapse in a way that has not collapsed since the time of the American Great Depression. ... In general, on the planet, according to fund analysts, GDP will decline about 3%.

Russia's GDP was reduced by 3% until very recently in 2015. Yes, and in 2009, too. We have not noticed!

The crisis does not scare us, we will not crawl out of it. We are only 90 to the terrible freeze!

True, I guess why these scary 90s are afraid of just the conflagrants. Putin was not there! And so it’s the same.

[Zoldat_A]

Quote: Stas157

Russia's GDP was reduced by 3% until very recently in 2015. Yes, and in 2009, too. We have not noticed!

the economy in some regions of the world will collapse in a way that has not collapsed since the time of the American Great Depression

Paradox - during the time of the American Great Depression, the USSR experienced a technological upsurge and carried out industrialization. Therefore, THEIR Great Depression is not yet a sentence for ALL.

Of course, almost 100 years have passed since then and a lot has changed. Of course, the United States is now striving to draw as many “falling” as possible into the orbit of its "spin" in order to try to get out on their own with as little losses as possible. "I wasn't the only one who tumbled in the field" - their principle.

The main thing in this situation is to be as far away from the United States as possible financially and economically. Whoever stands farther from them, the less will hurt THEIR depression. What does Mongolia care about the Wall Street panic? Yes, no. As they grazed cattle in the steppe, so they will graze. But Europe with its bones will pave the way for the United States to get out of the economic crisis. And we with such a "Government" will get the most "hello" ... Let them buy more American debt papers. For gold ...

[Sardanapalus]

Thanks to your "com" I have read from the bottom of my heart about Mongolia. And your statement that Mongolia has nothing to do with the current situation in the world is a little wrong. The main trading partner of the country is China, and China is the United States. Mongolia exports raw materials and agricultural products, imports EVERYTHING, starting from household items. Of course, a person can be returned to a natural primitive society and even turned back into a monkey. Some communities forgotten by God (not caught in the sight of civilization) did so, or degraded, for they always vegetated in degradation. We will climb out with the whole world, this is the essence of globalization. Europe, USA, Russia and everyone else in one team. Self-isolation is a path of regression.

[aybolyt678]

Quote: Zoldat_A

Paradox - during the time of the American Great Depression, the USSR experienced a technological upsurge and industrialized

Under socialism, industrialization is planned, centrally. Under capitalism, each for himself, someone got out and someone burned out. It is proved that with the same expenses under socialism, 3 times more product will be produced and 2 times less working time will be spent.

[orionvitt]

Quote: Stils

It's all about the collapse of commodity markets

In your opinion, it turns out that the production and consumer markets did not collapse. In our globalized age, where everyone has long been connected to each other by one thread, if one drowns, then all will drown. First of all, those who are heavier (that is, who managed to get involved in the global economy most of all), and vice versa, who did not have time to fully integrate into this "collective farm", have a chance to get off with little blood. Russia is just one of these countries. Thanks to the sanctions and Western politicians who did not want to include Russia in the "house of cards" of the world economy. And now, this house of cards began to collapse.

[aybolyt678]

Quote: orionvitt

Thanks to the sanctions and Western politicians who did not want to include Russia in the "house of cards" of the world economy.

But hasn't Mishustin lifted the embargo?

[smart ass]

It was possible for Russia against the background of the collapse of the economies to find growth points and mitigate the situation. For us, there was more than enough time to take action. Could quickly transfer the economy to the production of medical equipment consumables. To urgently introduce an emergency mode for a period of 2 months during which to pay utility bills to citizens and pay the average salary in the region (at the same time, it is hard to pin down all attempts to leave home). Enterprises have to take tax and credit vacations, return taxes paid for the year. Yes, it would take a lot of money, but on the other hand, why else do you need a reserve, if not for such cases?

[aybolyt678]

Quote: Clever man

find growth points and mitigate the situation.

There is a very simple way, developed in the mid-20th century - the use of hyperimmune serums, at worst, in the blood plasma of ill people for the treatment of viral diseases.
immunoglobulins perfectly inactivate the virus, so the informational noise about the lack of worthy antiviral agents is nothing more than a fake. 1 ml the patient’s serum will cure the patient in the early and middle stages of the disease per day. Therefore, the situation can be mitigated by political will and enlightenment of the medieval level of consumers' minds.
The use of serum will reduce the death of Covid to zero.

[sleeve]

Not really worth listening.

[Ilya-spb]

Question. If the IMF has not encountered anything like this, why is it needed?

The recession of the economy. These are only forecasts so far ... We count the chickens in the fall.

[alexmach]

Question. If the IMF has not encountered anything like this, why is it needed?

And why do you personally need? You, too, have never encountered anything like this before?

[knn54]

This is not a FORECAST, but a REVIEW.
What the IMF has not encountered is the growing volume of its printed matter.
And yet, the Saudi oil company Saudi Aramco announced May prices for buyers from the Asian region at a significant discount for the second month in a row, despite the OPEC + deal ...

[Malyuta]

Quote: Doccor18

It is strange why Italy has a 9% drop in GDP and 10% in Russia. In Russia, however, the situation is much more stable in terms of epidemiological situation.

The fact is that the Italian economy is more developed, does not depend on raw materials exports and is much more stable than the Russian economy.

[Norbert]

yeah, a country with an economy tied to tourism, during a pandemic, is more stable than an economy tied to energy exports.

[Malyuta]

Quote: norbert

yeah, a country with an economy tied to tourism, during a pandemic, is more stable than an economy tied to energy exports.

Tatras, Skoda and Chezeti, too, tourists collect ?!

[Spektr]

Where are the Tatras? In my opinion, when this production was purchased by the USA, the Tatra Mountains ended.

[aybolyt678]

Quote: norbert

yeah, a country with a tourism economy

Yeah! do they buy fruits in Poland? they have frosts over 40? Yes, they take 3-4 potato crops each! textile industry is available!

[alexmach]

Because Italy is a country with a developed economy and Russia is a "developing" and oil-dependent country.

[Krasnodar]

Without oil and gas, they have more than Russian GDP.
Engineering, household appliances, metallurgy, textiles, food industry

[Norbert]

I think, because according to the "objective" opinion of the IMF, the "developed" economy of an EU country, by definition, cannot fall more than the "antediluvian" economy of a potential partner.

[Shuttle]

Quote: Doccor18

It is strange why Italy has a 9% drop in GDP and 10% in Russia. In Russia, however, the situation is much more stable in terms of epidemiological situation.

So for the sake of this and the article. Whose forecast is it, what is it based on, when given, where is not a word.
You can now start a new LJ-shechku, write there that a large Eech is expected to appear in the area between the Karakalpak Upland and Ararat, and woo-a-la - you can also write in the article that "there was a forecast earlier ...".

[Irokez]

The IMF is still the pipe under which it blows - under that it will blow.
And we are not accustomed to sanctions, and this coronovirus is just another sanction, and that’s all, and what 10% are there. Drive as always on objectionable.

[UserGun]

"Earlier in Russia there was a forecast that in 2020 the fall in GDP could become a double-digit number - about 10%."

But then the fabulous benefactor of all Russia spoke through the duroscope and, in a single burst of zeroing, began to broadcast about a new breakthrough in minus 5.5%))) From the well-groomed face, it was true, to put it mildly, that our everything, without which everything would be lost and perish, did not understand what is it about, but most importantly, he "moved" other countries in this matter)))

[Tochilka]

I read and remembered instantly about "25 million high-tech places" and "galley" ...

[A. Privalov]

Quote: Doccor18

It is strange why Italy has a 9% drop in GDP and 10% in Russia. In Russia, however, the situation is much more stable in terms of epidemiological situation.

Oh, don't jinx it !!! Pah pah pah! Knock on wood!

[Doccor18]

May it not be worse with us than in Italy. We have not yet optimized all Soviet hospitals in the Soviet Union, there are still many doctors who have a Soviet doctor’s diploma, and people here have not forgotten how to help each other for free.

[alexmach]

We have not yet optimized all Soviet hospitals

By the way, this is true. The very number of tests conducted for this coronavirus shows the wide coverage of the population with medicine. They also point to such a factor that Russia's economic downturn is "not the first time."

[aybolyt678]

Quote: Doccor18

our people have not forgotten how to help each other for free.

+++ Thank you! I am not alone !!!

[A. Privalov]

In other words, the essence of the article:
the fat ones lose weight, and the thin ones bend.

[DMB 75]

So at all times and everywhere it was .. The crisis and without IMF forecasts I think it will still be there, it will not seem to the whole world, not only to us ..

[Chaldon48]

Russia seems again ahead of the rest

[rocket757]

A very optimistic forecast, especially now, when they didn’t figure out the epidemic, didn’t win, also because many countries rushed to violate all sorts of international rules and treaties! And after all, the process is still in progress when it is not at all clear!

[Demon_is_ada]

Victor With the epidemic, it becomes more understandable, according to preliminary estimates, we have from 30 to 40% of carriers of antibodies to the corona That is, this canoe began not last month, but last year. Therefore, they started testing for antibodies, all those with antibodies are go arbeiten, the sun is still high By May, something will work. It will be like this with economics (wangyu and tuned up) - a 20% price increase for groups of goods back and forth 2-5%, since the majority sits at home and does not produce goods, there are no warehouses like in the USSR, and there is a shortage of stock. The problem of deficiency is solved in different ways - in socialism there is money, but you just can’t buy it, under capitalism there is one deficit - money . Further, it will go according to the usual scheme - the lack of money does not allow the development of production, and it is not necessary because of the lack of money from the buyer , a vicious circle called pseudo-recession. Nobody will solve this problem, since it can only be solved by changing the system, and who wants to lose the unbearable honest work? The deputies have clearly and clearly sent a signal - we will not cut our wages!

[rocket757]

Welcome
What do I have to say. Gorid is a hard worker, none of the enterprises has been stopped, at the maximum, the offices have been transferred to a remote location, but there are duties at the place of work. Himself such, twice a week for work or on call. Products are exported, wages on time.
In all enterprises, this is exactly so ... although, all enterprises are of a continuous cycle, they simply cannot be stopped.
Really do not work all sorts of salons, small shops and other miscellaneous. I took up construction, went bought cement, blocks and other miscellaneous, etc. Dangled to the market for meat for dogs, everything is as always, they just sprinkle different rubbish and masked people !!!
Oh yes, PROBLEM! Nowhere to get a haircut, yes, you’ll have to go to a friend’s house! I have a pass, everything is within the route.
Of course, not everywhere like that !!! So far we have 46 infected / confirmed to the region (2 million inhabitants) and two have not survived!

[Demon_is_ada]

Well, in our village, everyone is slowly being hammered into "self-isolation," the "slave market" has already appeared (Uzbeks for construction and digging). Services do not work, this is a fact, in principle, if everyone observes at least the elementary rules of the tank war, then the burden on doctors will not be spontaneous, it seems to me that with such a "responsibility" of the population and leadership, we are doomed to get sick of everything Even sellers do not wear masks, although they are not in pharmacies, like paracetamol In general, everyone was sparsely fucked up, "what is the priest and the parish" and vice versa ... There is something to think about on the topic - and we need it?
I have a garden on my isolation and without it Well, and housework (private house) We had +20 here yesterday, this morning snow the truth has already melted ... surprises when you consider that the crops have already hatch, it’s good that they keep a little frost ... In my opinion, the crown and surprises of nature are the messenger of the abcacalypse

[rocket757]

So the masked people walk. Without masks, units. And the rest, until the fried rooster pecks, only harsh measures can some kind of regime, restrictions be maintained.
We are not unique in that ... just unconditional obedience of citizens, this rarity. Few countries can boast of this.

[awdrgy]

There, Kissinger even spoke about the institutions of governance that will not survive the coronavirus (will not be wealthy). Everyone should see it means that either it is necessary to toughen everything or to "score" everything, but if we move away from this framework of the worldview into which they are trying to drive us Why should we do it in the country " those who have not survived the coronavirus "the institution of usury. After all, by and large, what requires all people to regularly earn" live "money-payments of housing and communal services (which the state can cancel) and loans Further medicines (not always to everyone and not regularly, and some of them are also under the control of the state ) food (depends on subsidiary farming and, again, the state is able to regulate) clothes are no longer so critical energy carriers (again state control) It turns out that only usurers are completely uncontrolled bloodsuckers And by the way, we have a unique situation in the country that both Orthodoxy and Islam condemn usury to put it mildly people will support

[abrakadabre]

And by the way, we have a unique situation in the country in that both Orthodoxy and Islam usury to put it mildly condemn te people will support

The uniqueness of the situation is nothing more than a photo on Instagram with puffed lips-dumplings for girls who sympathize with lowered social responsibility. If Catholic standards are strictly observed, then usury is also condemned. So what?
But what is true is true - financial capital is not able to cope with such a challenge. Because for them, the real world and material production has long turned into an abstraction, something unnecessary and complex. And since in the world financial capital has crushed the real sector of the global economy, the real sectors are skidding.

[voyaka uh]

"And since in the world financial capital has crushed the real sector of the world economy, the real sectors are stalled." ////
----
You have confused the concepts of "financial capital" and "services". They are not the same thing.
You wanted to say that the service sector has crushed the manufacturing sector.
The normal ratio of services to production is 65-75 to 35-25.
If the country has a manufacturing sector of 50%, for example, then the country is underdeveloped
in the service sector.
But if in the country the production is 10%, for example, it means that it has technological degradation.

[abrakadabre]

You have confused the concepts of "financial capital" and "services". They are not the same thing.
You wanted to say that the service sector has crushed the manufacturing sector.

Not at all. You mixed it up. It's not about the service sector, but about financial capital, which owns the lion's share of industrial shares and other assets on a global scale. Got sick of the Fed, Walt Street, the IMF doesn't tell you anything? These are far from cafes with hairdressers.
The thing is that money has become higher than material production and has come off from it.

[voyaka uh]

You do not understand what you are talking about.
1) Banks do not own industry. Banks themselves are in a deep "pope".
Industry (stocks of companies) are buying up investment
trust funds
Wealthy people and the middle class invest in these funds.
to make a profit.
Clear?
2) The Fed is a group of American large banks.
Wall street - these are the same banks, insurance companies and trust funds.
The IMF is a relatively small monetary fund.
----
The banking sector worldwide is in crisis. There is not enough capital for
investment and production development. Especially in Europe, where banks are "at zero".
There is still money in the States. Chinese banks have the most capital.

[Liam]

Quote: voyaka uh

. Chinese banks have the most capital

https://www.google.com/amp/s/iz.ru/export/google/amp/955887

[voyaka uh]

Chinese banks are pumped up by the state. It's not a secret.
A crisis can occur if the state "kills" them. There is a risk.
For this reason, Chinese banks are continuously investing:
finance construction and production projects
all over the world, reinforcing Chinese trade. In hope,
that they will return the money. Their strategy is clear.

[Liam]

Their strategy is not new - they created a huge financial bubble inside the country with gigantic cross-debt that was ready to explode before the epidemic.
The World Bank announced the beginning of a new crisis over the Chinese
08:00, December 29, 2019
https://www.google.com/amp/s/ria.ru/amp/20191229/1562884543.html
In 2008, the West cleared of the bubble, albeit falling into a recession for a couple of years. And China cannot afford it, so it continued to inflate the bubble with new debts that have already reached monstrous proportions. The only way to somehow delay the inevitable is only the continuous growth of the economy and exports. at a rate of no lower than -6-8%, otherwise everything will fall apart. Therefore, they coped with the epidemic "quickly". They cannot afford not only a recession, but even a slowdown in growth.
But I'm afraid in an effort to embellish reality, they allowed a pandemic and a collapse of the global economy that will pull them into a hole, but they risk not into a hole like the West, but into an abyss.

[voyaka uh]

"economic and export growth at a rate of at least -6-8% otherwise
everything will fall down. Therefore, the epidemic was "quickly" coped with ////
----
You are absolutely right. Epidemics in China - every 5-8 years.
They know that the economic losses from them are huge for China.
and therefore learned to cope quickly, without quotes.

[Liam]

Quote: voyaka uh

Epidemics in China - every 5-8 years.

Exactly. Worse than in Africa. The very fact speaks of real Chinese "efficiency" in this area.

Quote: voyaka uh

quickly without quotes

If without quotes, then China for 2 months-December and January-denied and lied about the very fact of the epidemic and its magnitude and danger (it also lied during the previous epidemics). And while lying and denied, the virus has spread freely around the world. then for 2,5 months I turned part of the country into a concentration camp to somehow stop the epidemic. 4 months quickly for you?
Taiwan or the South Caucasus coped quickly and efficiently. And without the concentration camps. Because they had the experience of previous Chinese epidemics and know the real cost of the Chinese lies and the figures of the Central Committee of the Party. The same Taiwan closely followed everything from the very beginning and even in early January when China for two voices with WHO they sang songs about the fact that there is no epidemic and there is no need to close the message with China - they noticed that China began to actively buy ventilators and masks for these songs. And the Taiwanese immediately reacted - restrictions on flights from China, screening of those arriving from there, especially from Wuhan, tests, isolation and focal quarantines. And today, less than 400 infected and several deaths. So did the Koreans, Singaporeans, Hong Kong, etc. Because they have already experienced the "effective" lies of the Chinese. And all the rest the world is not and we have what we have

[voyaka uh]

"And while he lied and denied, the virus was crawling unhindered throughout the world" ///
-----
The Chinese took two to three weeks to determine the degree of danger.
Of these, as they acknowledge, is lost (silence in the hospital with
the first patient - a market trader) was one week.
They sent information to the WHO about the new virus right away.
But WHO did not respond.
Do not exaggerate the guilt of the Chinese. For a country with 1.5 billion people
they worked super-fast.

[Liam]

https://aillarionov.livejournal.com/1173054.html
Read the chronology of lies

Quote: voyaka uh

But WHO didn’t react at all

I wonder why WHO officials bought in the bud went to their ears about the fact that they didn’t have to interrupt communications with China and did not allow Taiwanese reports in their press releases.

[awdrgy]

Investing in order to make a profit is great And I thought that investing should be done to research for the benefit of people to learn new things (so to speak through thorns to the stars) This is the problem that they created this consumption system for their belly and when there wasn’t enough when the planet was baited by garbage when the balance of production and consumption was broken instead so that they decided to drive everyone into digital slavery and start launching all kinds of viruses (It's so easy to dough a lot - I'm the boss all the old way, and then cut the average thread I can’t (I don’t know how and I don’t know how), it’s nothing) Well, what danger is there in changing the world, but what if the most cunning is not the smartest?

[Alex Nevs]

And didn’t Grandfather Lenin write like that?

[samarin1969]

Economists have paranoia with their "GDP growth and fall" by several percent ... The Great Depression is hunger, boxed Hooverillies, fights with the police, closure of all banks, ruin of 25% of business, complete collapse of stock exchanges, battles of cops-bandits .. So far, these pictures are far away.

[sanik2020]

A monkey runs through the forest and yells: - crisis, crisis.
She meets a fox and asks: -monkey, what are you yelling?
- How not to yell, because the crisis is the same.
-Well, the crisis, so what, I walked in furs and will walk.
The monkey waved a hand and ran on: -crisis, crisis.
A wolf comes in, he asks: -What are you yelling, have you scared the whole forest?
-So the crisis, how not to yell?
- Well, and what is the crisis, I ate meat as I will.
A monkey runs and thinks: - and it’s true that I am screaming, as I ran with my bare ass, I will run.

[Ross xnumx]

According to the IMF, the economy in some regions of the world will collapse in a way that it did not collapse since the American Great Depression.

How is it?

Great Depression - The global economic crisis that began in October 1929 with the stock market crash in the United States and continued until 1939 year.

The International Monetary Fund, IMF (International Monetary Fund, IMF) - a specialized agency of the UN, with headquarters in Washington, USA. At the Bretton Woods Conference on Monetary and Financial Affairs 22 July 1944 year The basis of the agreement was developed (IMF Charter).

Maybe I, too, should sit down and reason about the causes and results of WWII? What-what, and your international moneylenders office has long shown its Smelly, self-serving inside.
It is not surprising to me that some states are trying to return to barter deals, which guarantees the absence of IMF intervention and the payment of “rent” for using the dollar.
Those countries that live off their own resources will not notice either the crises or the consequences of the coronavirus. And those whose economies are based on the market and finances use banking speculation will go ... into the woods.

[Keyser soze]

Today, JP Morgan gave a forecast for a decline in US GDP for the second trimester with 40% and unemployment - 20%. Wells Fargo says it’s not at all necessary that recovery will be at the end of that year.

The EU gives more conservative estimates of the decline, but I think we can calmly multiply the decline by 2x. For Bulgaria, the IMF predicts a 12% decline for this year, but I think that is the minimum cost. Easy could be more.

[orionvitt]

“We have not encountered anything like this in our lives”

How is it not encountered? One might think that capitalism has never had a major crisis before. It's just that earlier, they were solved by world wars, but now (due to the presence of nuclear weapons), this method is difficult. To act in the old way, that is, to fill in with freshly made money, does not work the same. As the saying goes, "we walked, had fun, counted, wept." Who else can say that capitalism is the best economic and political formation? Now let's see how the market will settle everything. Who did not fit into the market. I would not be surprised if it turns out to be a simple thing that the market did not fit in, first of all, those who created it, that is, the world economic giants. For that fought for it and ran. Well, it turns out that the coronavirus is to blame.

[apro]

Capitalism shows the teeth .. got bored. What we were going to and come to. The man is only an adjective to money .. there is no money no man.
Falls rise ebbs and flows. Large capital solves its problems at the expense of the population. And there is no profit left. And the rest ... get ready for the incomprehensible ...

[Victorio]

the world in crisis is a lot of work for the IMF.

[gorenina91]

-And why do not they give forecasts on the economy of China ???
-China that ...- organized this entire epidemic, and now will flourish ???