Mikhail Leontyev: “The crisis concerns not the whole world, but the so-called“ golden billion ”
The Federation Council approved a law expanding the anti-crisis powers of the Russian government for this year. In particular, the measures of state support of enterprises were revised and provisions were approved that allow the government, without amending the budget law, to allocate funds from the Reserve Fund to support the stability of the Russian economy.
In order to counter speculative attacks, very fast actions are needed.
This is just a technical detail, in my opinion, perfectly reasonable in the sense that the means of support are really needed. All crisis fluctuations are speculative in form. They are always like that. They may be fundamental in content, but in form they are always speculative. In order to resist a speculative attack, we need very fast, strong actions. We know from the previous anti-crisis measures that, in general, they were largely delayed, and because of this, their effectiveness declined. Therefore, if you are building anti-crisis structures, then you should give these structures the opportunity to work quickly, otherwise the meaning of this is simply depreciated.
The only thing worth saying is that the anticrisis measures in the form in which they acted one way or another, good or bad, in the period from 2008, as we know, last a maximum of six months, or even less. As far as we imagine the depth of the coming crisis and the length, and its length ... well, there’s no end in sight. Of course, shocks, vibrations, primary waves can be extinguished by accumulating and using reserves, but it is impossible to withstand a crisis. This is a question which, in fact, determines the length of the agony. Of course, if there are any fundamental changes in the economic strategy, then, probably, these reserves can be useful in order to give time for transition. But if these changes in the strategy will not be (and now they are absolutely not visible), then, of course, all this is an absolute palliative, because we have not really seen a crisis. If earlier we talked about the allegedly unsustainable recovery, it seems that the economy is not recovering from the crisis very well, now they say that no one comes out of the crisis.
For the USA, the ideal anti-crisis program would be the dismantling of all social programs.
“The world economy is doomed to long-term stagnation” is absurd. Stagnation does not happen instead of a crisis, it happens after a crisis, but it has not yet existed as such. It still needs to be earned. This is an attempt to complacency. If you do not have a medicine and you do not see a cure for the disease, then the best way is to deny the disease. From this point of view, everything that is being done is reasonable from a technical point of view, but these are not anti-crisis measures at all. It is necessary to understand such a thing, that practically no country in the world is pursuing any anti-crisis policy.
The crisis does not concern the whole world, but the so-called. "Golden billion", i.e. developed countries of the West. They export this crisis all over the world, because the whole world works for this system. For example, for Russia it is clear that this is a question of demand for our export resources. For China, this is the conjuncture of prices for Chinese processed products, i.e., for Chinese industrial products (consumer goods, we will say so). Fundamentally, the crisis is huge bubbles, huge, unpaid debts in principle, which were created by the developed countries of the world.
The only way to cure a crisis is to restore macroeconomic equilibrium. It should be understood that the macroeconomic equilibrium will be restored at any cost, but this price can be extremely destructive. It can not be extremely destructive. From this point of view, the anti-crisis policy is the dismantling of the social infrastructure that the developed countries of the world cannot contain. We see it, they go quietly, they go, all these savings. This is a rejection of the social security system in the broad sense of the word - medicine, health care, the pension system, etc. In principle, the ideal anti-crisis program for America would be a program of dismantling and, in fact, eliminating all social programs, but no one would maybe because in the conditions of modern democracy this is generally impossible. Therefore, such a decision will be made gradually, by collapse.
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