Moody's called the Russian economy stable with falling oil prices

World analysts are trying to determine who is less likely to suffer from a sharp drop in oil prices. In particular, the situation with the economy in countries is discussed, a significant share of the budget revenues of which are from the export of hydrocarbons.

In the international rating agency Moody's presented their calculations on the mentioned situation. Agency analysts believe that a number of oil exporting countries will face a major economic crisis. We are talking about Nigeria, Venezuela, Iraq, Angola, Oman and other states.

At the same time, Moody's believes that Russia will suffer less from the shocks associated with falling oil prices, as the Russian economy has gained some stability. The material speaks of large gold and foreign exchange reserves, and a tenth of which many oil and gas exporting states do not have. These reserves give the Russian economy some stability.

Among the countries whose economy has a certain margin of safety at a time of low oil prices, Mudis experts included Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Qatar, and Kazakhstan. It is stated that these countries have the opportunity to achieve a relatively painless way out of the crisis for the economy, if costs are cut in some way.

Mudis analysis does not mention the problems of American shale companies. But this topic is actively covered by the American media. According to some reports, the owners of the “shale” business are upholstering the doorsteps of Trump’s cabinet asking for state support, which in itself is unbelievable for the American economy, given that over the past few decades they have been talking about economic liberalization.

Comments

[Honest Citizen]

World analysts are trying

Selling to analysts, inexpensive, coffee grounds

[mitroha]

Well, "world analysts" also want to eat, but here in the muddy water of forecasts and analysts, you can try to catch a delicacy fish.
Here vying with everything and predict. Yes, byad, it turns out for the majority worse than our meteorologists.

[Honest Citizen]

Quote: Mitroha

Here vying with everything and predict.

Uh-huh. And no one is responsible for their chatter. Everyone is catching the hype, and with a clever look "broadcast" ...

[Gene84]

there are no more professional analysts left. all so-called "analysts" process the client's order

[rocket757]

It’s easier, a coin ... although it’s not so nice, I guess.

[Svarog]

At the same time, Moody's believes that Russia will suffer less from the shocks associated with falling oil prices, as the Russian economy has gained some stability. The material speaks of large gold and foreign exchange reserves, and a tenth of which many oil and gas exporting states do not have. These reserves give the Russian economy some stability.

All analysts, as one, say that Russia will suffer to a lesser extent .. Perhaps this is so, only the question of Russia specifically, as a state, or about citizens of Russia? Here in 2014, the ruble fell in price twice .. as a result, within half a year, prices rose for everything, to a lesser extent for products .. High-quality shoes went up in price, medicines went up in price, cars went up in price, communal apartment went up in price ..
And why to a lesser extent on products, because they are produced by us .. But if we had to produce everything else and even completely from our raw materials .. then we would not have noticed all these crises ..

[Honest Citizen]

Quote: Svarog

But if we were to produce everything else and even completely from our raw materials .. then we would not even notice all these crises ..

The government is not faced with the task of making Russia self-sufficient. Yes, and it’s dreary to build an economy. It’s much easier to drive raw materials, but to cut sawn offs from the sale of mineral resources. But the economy didn’t pass ...

[Svarog]

Quote: Honest Citizen

The government is not faced with the task of making Russia self-sufficient. Yes, and it’s dreary to build an economy. It’s much easier to drive raw materials, but to cut sawn offs from the sale of mineral resources. But the economy didn’t pass ...

That’s what it was all about .. During a period of high oil prices, it was necessary to do it .. Serious things should be done .. and everyone would be happy today .. Indeed, there is an understanding that nobody just needs it .. For you don’t need to be great an economist to understand that we are self-sufficient and can produce almost everything ..

[Gene84]

Quote: Svarog

In a period of high oil prices and it was necessary to do it .. To do it seriously ..

So they did, engaged in seriously stuffing the wallets and pockets of the oligarchs.

[Ka-52]

For you don’t need to be a great economist to understand that we are self-sufficient and can produce almost everything ..

we can not, do not grind nonsense.

The government is not faced with the task of making Russia self-sufficient.

arrogant phrases suitable only for an armored car.
In fact, I will give you one illustrative example.
A few years ago, the state announced a program for the development of single-industry towns. The program set the task with the help of additional financing to revive the economy of entities completely dependent on city-forming enterprises (for example, when the city was built around a factory or mine). Allocated billions of rubles from the federal budget for this. It seems that the government was concerned. Things are good. But what did it result in?
In fact, on the ground, it turned into a profanity:
1. part of the money was stolen at the stage of creating economic programs, an analogue of R&D by officials of the regional and city levels. Let me explain: my wife, who has a high rank in economics, received an offer to write an economic program for the region for 100 thousand. rub. It seems that the money is good, she took it with pleasure. When the work was done, it turned out that the budget allocated ... fanfare !!! .... 10 rubles. Where are the remaining 000 million? And they dispersed to numerous intermediaries. That's it.
2. part of the money was stolen by regional officials who registered non-existent projects in economic programs and transferred money through shell companies.
3. The remaining money was stolen by pseudo-businessmen, who, for bribes, passed the received financing through a chain of one-day trips, collected loot and declared bankruptcy for their Horns and Hoofs LLC.
And such attempts to solve the problems of the economy will be typed by a cart and a small cart.
That is, the government, in principle, periodically tries to inject blood into the development of the economy, but money most often goes into sand a pocket of a huge number of officials grabbers and a thief of businessmen.

[Svarog]

That is, the government, in principle, periodically tries to pour blood into the development of the economy, but money most often goes into the sand a pocket of a huge number of officials grabbers and a thief of businessmen.

And who is asking us from officials? Doesn’t the government do ... I agree with you that everything is very bad on the ground, but if it’s bad then you need to change something .. don’t find .. okay it would be bad for 5 years .. but it was bad for 30 years ..
The government is trying to inject the blood you write .. but it’s not enough to fill in the money .. a clear plan is needed, the responsible persons .. and the responsibility should be real, but not so that they put it away from one place to an even more responsible one ..

[Ka-52]

The government is trying to inject the blood you write .. but it’s not enough to fill in the money .. a clear plan is needed, the responsible persons .. and the responsibility should be real, but not so that they put it away from one place to an even more responsible one ..

and here you are right. But where to get those responsible? In my opinion, put 100 of any citizens in the mayor / governor's chair and offer to take kickbacks - 99 of them will take! No matter how beautiful the speeches they led up to this on equality, fraternity and decency. And it is depressing.
Do you know what has recently affected the decrease in the number of tricks and kickbacks? No fear of being caught with a bribe. Neither conscience nor patriotism. And the fact that it has become more difficult to cash out funds. They began to squeeze the offices that deal with this. I would never have thought.

[Gene84]

Quote: Honest Citizen

But the economy didn’t pass ...

it must be understood that the vast majority in government circles are financiers and, to put it mildly, poorly understood in the economy. Whatever problems government economists ask about economic issues, they always translate the conversation on finance. they don’t even seem to possess economic terminology, let alone knowledge of economics.

[Quat]

Quote: Honest Citizen

Quote: Svarog

But if we were to produce everything else and even completely from our raw materials .. then we would not even notice all these crises ..

The government is not faced with the task of making Russia self-sufficient. Yes, and it’s dreary to build an economy. It’s much easier to drive raw materials, but to cut sawn offs from the sale of mineral resources. But the economy didn’t pass ...

Alas, the maximum level of our officials is to show off in the media, receive a salary of half a lama and sell state resources.

One cannot dream of any self-sufficiency.
There is no pharmaceutical independence (for a moment, this is strategic security).
You can’t see nano technology, let alone say, go to the plumbing store and look at the manufacturer’s tags, 80% China.
In Russian pharmacies, prices rose PPC as, seven years ago, one thousand rubles, now five thousand.
We live in import occupation, it is beneficial for officials, which means nothing will change.

And if you recall that the children of officials study in Russophobic countries, and then they return here and become new officials, things are generally very bad.

[Roman12345678]

The head of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, whose daily income was estimated several years ago at 2,3 million rubles, said that personally with him collapsed oil prices "do not cause a sense of drama"

[Svarog]

Quote: Roman12345678

The head of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, whose daily income was estimated several years ago at 2,3 million rubles, said that he personally collapsed oil prices "do not cause a sense of some kind of drama"

Of course, they don’t store money in wooden ones .. and indeed they came up with a brilliant scheme .. With a flick of the wrist, the ruble becomes 100% cheaper and as a result citizens become poorer .. Everything works great for them, but not for the average consumer ..

[Machito]

Rating agencies always provide information biased, as it is beneficial to their owners. Objectivity does not smell there. The news that our belts are tightened is not as strong as the other, it can hardly be called pleasant.
A self-sufficient country was the USSR, which, due to constant sanctions, was forced to produce everything and everything.

[Krasnodar]

Quote: Bearded

A self-sufficient country was the USSR, which, due to constant sanctions, was forced to produce everything and everything.

THE USSR? ))))
www.istmat.info/node/9321
For a lot of items, right up to the start of perestroika, 50% of different products - from grain to various machines, imported

[Polymer]

Regarding the link to istmath - why are you transmitting information so one-sidedly? For example, a quote from the same page:

The development of engineering, advances in science and technology have turned the Soviet Union into one of the largest exporters of equipment. A prominent place in the country's exports began to occupy products such as equipment for nuclear power plants, electronic computers, numerically controlled machines.

And then, the main import went from the CMEA member countries, and this greatly changes the alignment.

[Krasnodar]

Quote: Svarog

And why to a lesser extent on products, because they are produced by us .. But if we had to produce everything else and even completely from our raw materials .. then we would not have noticed all these crises ..

Greetings!
Here you raise a number of problems, some of which are solved, for example:
Business security
Creation of benefits for domestic manufacturers
Creation of offshore companies for foreign companies with mandatory quotas for local labor force and regulation of pricing in the domestic market
Etc.
However, there are global problems that require decades - the creation of our own research institute base with a smoke of foreign specialists, for example
Cash flow control in this area, etc.
There are problems that are very difficult or impossible to solve - the cost of production in all kinds of Malaysia will always be lower than ours

[Svarog]

Quote: Krasnodar

However, there are global challenges that require decades - creating your own

Well, 30 years have passed, how much more do you think will take time?

There are problems that are very difficult or impossible to solve - the cost of production in all kinds of Malaysia will always be lower than ours

Which for example ? Logistics with Malaysia costs us a pretty penny that eliminates the cost price - this is the first, second, our energy industry is all self-sufficient and at normal prices, tariffs, we would have long had the cost price been one of the lowest in the world ..
You have listed a lot of problems .. actually, they have been talking about them for 30 years .. but it all ends in conversations .. This is the problem, no one is involved in the development of the country ..

[Krasnodar]

1) Over the past 30 years there have been many positive changes - don’t you? )))
2) Even taking into account logistics, it will be cheaper to make a lighter in China (including delivery), to grow bananas in Ecuador

[Svarog]

Quote: Krasnodar

2) Even taking into account logistics, it will be cheaper to make a lighter in China (including delivery), to grow bananas in Ecuador

There are doubts about the lighter .. plastic is made from oil (we have it), gas is also there .. What is the problem? You can buy bananas .. for those who can’t do without them .. But everything else needs to be done ..

[Krasnodar]

The cost of labor and rental of premises is higher than in Malaysia. Upon delivery in huge quantities, a premium for logistics will not be felt
Produce everything else - yes, necessary, I agree

[Svarog]

Quote: Krasnodar

The cost of labor and rental of premises is higher than in Malaysia. Upon delivery in huge quantities, a premium for logistics will not be felt

What is the rental of premises? It’s all possible to regulate .. as well as utilities and electricity tariffs. As for the cost of labor .. look at the movie .. a lot of workers you see there? And here they came to the machine tool industry ..

[Krasnodar]

How do you see this - to all manufacturers to configure state boxes and hangars?
Ok - on the video.
1) There are adjusters, operators, movers, logisticians, security, etc.
2) The cost of the above, taking into account depreciation and maintenance of equipment, is not a fact that it is cheaper than manual assembly in Malaysia - for example

[Svarog]

Quote: Krasnodar

How do you see this - to all manufacturers to configure state boxes and hangars?

Krasnodar .. I would tell and set out a clear plan of action .. but why? To convince you .. yes you kind of agree with me already .. This should be done by people who get money for wiping their pants ..
We take a list of products and goods that are forced to buy abroad, we divide them into categories, assign a responsible person for each category who calculates the possibility of production from us, set a filter by priority, select, say, 100 most important products, determine the amount of money, find the contractor, start production . This is all very brief, it’s rather a principle but not an action plan .. I want to say that it is possible and quite simple if desired .. I have not raised one business .. I’m sure of this ..

[Krasnodar]

I also agree - the question is:
Why return to the USSR? )))

[Svarog]

Quote: Krasnodar

I also agree - the question is:
Why return to the USSR? )))

First, Russia should be an empire, both in terms of security and in terms of the market.
Secondly, it is impossible to develop industry under a capitalist economy .. at least in Russia ..
For the development of industry, it will be necessary to completely change the economic policy and in particular resources will be needed .. without the nationalization of the oil and gas, energy, alcohol, major enterprises it will not be possible to pursue a new economic policy ..
Thirdly, without the support of the bulk of the population, it will not be possible to pursue a new economic policy and a policy towards the CIS countries.
Socialism is still very attractive in the CIS countries and could serve as a unifying factor ..
You can continue to list .. but I think this is enough ..
Why do you think the capitalists have not done anything in terms of development for 30 years?

[Krasnodar]

1) De facto and so empire. As for sales - here the market determines. Demand, supply ... the Japanese, Koreans, Italians and Germans conquered foreign markets without any empires, being capitalist democracies
2) Everything can be developed under capitalist Russia - by showing state initiative
Oil and gas, energy - I agree. Defense industry. Alcohol - but by no means!
3) The political system does not provide total support to the population - it can only create its illusion
4) Well, why is the system that has collapsed the country attractive? )))
5) Because it’s not the capitalists, but the former commies who moved from the Volga and the Seagulls to Mercedes and Maybach)). The capitalist is Donald Trump, who ensured the growth of the US economy.

[Svarog]

Quote: Krasnodar

De facto and so empire.

Without Ukraine and Belarus, we are no empire .. so the remnants ..

As for sales - here the market determines.

Well, you’ve got it ... the market is the market .. it doesn’t determine anything .. It determines the quality product and the low price .. and yes .. there is still politics .. And we have all the opportunities .. but they have not been used for 30 years ..

Japanese, Koreans, Italians and Germans conquered foreign markets without any empires, being capitalist democracies

And why didn’t we conquer being capitalist democracy for 30 years?

Everything can be developed under capitalist Russia - showing state initiative

And why don't they show and develop? And under socialist Russia it will be possible to develop everything and there will be more opportunities for this.

) The political system does not provide total support to the population - it can only create its illusion

Yeah .. here you are completely bent .. Compare what social guarantees a citizen of the USSR and Russia had and how they were respected ..

4) Well, why is the system that has collapsed the country attractive? )))

People have destroyed the country .. this is a separate issue, I have answered this question more than once .. There were mistakes .. considering these, we need to build a new socialism .. But meanwhile, Russia never achieved such indicators as under socialism .. Today we live in this reserve ...

Because it’s not the capitalists, but the former commies who moved from the Volga and the Seagulls to Mercedes and Maybach)). The capitalist is Donald Trump, who ensured the growth of the US economy.

Yes, drop it ... resettled .. tell their children and grandchildren .. Yes, the point is not even that .. not in people .. but in the system ..

[Krasnodar]

1) Do you propose joining Ukraine and Belarus to us? )))
2) Of the 30 years, 10 have been tearing the Soviet heritage, the last 20 years have been sharing the tear-bank and have built a more or less acceptable life
3) Because even under the Union, our product was a frank drack - except caviar and ballet
4) Something has developed - wheat, unlike the Union, has begun to export, sunflower oil, reinforcement
5) The social guarantees of the Soviet worker destroyed the USSR, calculations of the other, firstly, not everyone needed, secondly
6) What did not achieve - in the smelting of iron and steel? )) Or in the purchase of Canadian wheat ??
7) Well, so they created a more comfortable system for their grandchildren and children - is there any guarantee of preventing this?
Maybe the country needs an analogue of Norwegian society with the provision of social guarantees at the expense of state oil money?

[tatra]

And let his people be without work, and without a livelihood? That is why those who captured Russia in 1991 created a wretched commodity-import economy, not only because they do not know how to work, but also because they are mentally parasites and cosmopolitans. Produced in their country gives people work, gives them a salary, and they go to shops to buy domestic goods. And in this way the development of the economy is going on., And the well-being of the people.

[vadim dok]

Moody, s is absolutely right! Neither Sechin nor Miller will suffer! They (and several of them) have a VERY solid airbag and they are very stable!

[Piramidon]

Quote: Honest Citizen

World analysts are trying

Selling to analysts, inexpensive, coffee grounds

One smart man said - "I have never heard of a fortune teller winning a large sum in the lottery."
Py.Sy. Something about Globa has not been heard for a long time.

[Honest Citizen]

Quote: Piramidon

One smart man said - "I have never heard of a fortune teller winning a large sum in the lottery."

I've heard something similar somewhere: the only sure way to win at roulette is to write a book "How to Win at Roulette"

[Snail N9]

Selling to analysts, inexpensive, coffee grounds

True, recently even fortune-telling on coffee gives, well, let's say, an "ambiguous" result ..... completely "ambiguous ...

[dzvero]

According to some reports, the owners of the “shale” business are upholstering the doorsteps of Trump’s cabinet asking for state support, which in itself is unbelievable for the American economy, given that there has been talk of economic liberalization in recent decades.

It’s not clear ... the fried rooster just crowed or has already pricked up to peck anyone?

[210ox]

So something is wrong .. Since Mudis is most likely sure ...

[sanik2020]

We are all analysts, but what's the use of this? Until the thunder strikes the peasant does not cross himself, that the aligarch is that commoner. The oil and coronavirus crisis is only confirmation.

[mole]

Rosneft propaganda. A good mine with a bad game. Apparently, they made a mistake, but they cannot afford to admit the mistake. In Russia, 24 in the running line of messages about the growth of our indices, the fall of the green. I would like to believe, but the experience of "the son of difficult mistakes" suggests not to believe.

[svoit]

There is no mistake, citizens have suffered, maybe even the state, but not Rosneft, it didn’t affect its performance

[vadim dok]

There is no mistake! The main "oil" and "gas" of the Russian Federation is the population! Payments from the production and sale of oil, gas and other minerals ABOUT 1/3 of budget revenues from taxes and fees! (C) Goskomstat.

[kin]

We are talking about Nigeria, Venezuela, Iraq, Angola, Oman and other states.

They compared Russia ... They put it in one row.

[Fishery]

Well, on salaries in the bucks of the Russian Federation and Nigeria, in principle, at the same level))))
http://zarplatymira.ru/dohod/nigeria-uroven-zarplat

[Roman12345678]

Among the countries whose economy has a certain margin of safety at a time of low oil prices, Mudis experts included Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Qatar, and Kazakhstan.

As I understand it, of the losers only Venezuela will be ..
For we, trading at 20, instead of 60, definitely do not win anything ..

I still remembered the recent view of Sechin ..

"If you give your market share, you are more never go back there - this is precisely the point. And the price, it is adjusted. But if you go away from your consumers, you go there never come back again"- Sechin told reporters.

US comes first in world oil production
"Were built about nine new export pipelines, offshore terminals, the active entry of American gas workers and oilmen into the European market began. Ten times, for example, increased supplies to India, six times to Europe, "the head of Rosneft said

Does anyone have a discord ??
How can it be possible to increase deliveries by several times somewhere to where you can never return ??

[mitroha]

In your reality, "active input" "increase supplies" and "return" are synonyms?

[Roman12345678]

That's right .. in reality it is just that ..
If a country has the ability to increase trade in its oil, it means it finds ways to enter (return) to someone’s market ..
An example of this is the SA, which announced discounts on its oil, and therefore, hoping to attract more buyers ..
For Sechin, it turns out that for some reason only the states have the opportunity to increase their sales markets, and Russia, supposedly, can only lose ..

[Zaurbek]

But not sustainable incomes of the population .... + 20% $ .... in time they will win back the prices.

[svoit]

The Russian economy collapsed on the first working day, and that’s only because it used to be a weekend, but Saudi Arabia is quite successfully holding on to this day.

[Gennady Korsunov]

Yeah, I still remember this mudis with EBN !! It's also not bad, not good, and suddenly the default oppa arrived !!

[Polymer]

Mudis analysis does not mention the problems of American shale companies.

This is because the US economy is not based on the export of hydrocarbons, but on the export of dollars. Recently, the share of democracy exports in the US economy has also increased significantly.

[ML-334]

Ferrets are horny.