Experts: After the global coronavirus pandemic, the oil price expects rapid growth

Experts: After the global coronavirus pandemic, the oil price expects rapid growth

Forecasts of experts in the field of economics more and more resemble attempts to "point a finger at the sky." Moreover, forecasts sometimes differ in diametrical opposite.


A few days ago, forecasters predicted a drop in oil almost to zero, or even to a “minus” (when producers themselves have to pay buyers to take oil so as not to stop the production process and not “freeze” the wells). Today, when oil added about 5% and is trading around $ 28 per barrel (Brent brand), the opposite is true.

So, it is said that the situation with coronavirus will ultimately “turn” the hydrocarbon market. Today, many enterprises in the world are forced to stop production, declare quarantine due to coronavirus and reduce energy consumption to zero. But when the pandemic is overcome, an avalanche-like jump in demand for those very energy carriers will follow, the need for which has substantially fallen in recent weeks.

Experts note that the crisis in the American shale industry, which is showing itself today, can add momentum to the rapid increase in oil prices after a pandemic. At today's oil prices, US shale companies declare themselves bankrupt one after another. If this situation in the oil market lasts about a month, then up to a third of all American shale companies will be forced to leave this market. In this regard, oil prices are predicted to rise at record levels - up to 20% per day. Recall that the fall after the failure of the OPEC + transaction was recorded at a level above 30% per day.

Thus, we can state the following: forecasts that look extremely strange for today are such that for one of them a barrel of oil will drop in price to almost zero, and for others it will jump at least to 60-70 dollars in a few months.
Photos used:
Rosneft website
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  1. rocket757 24 March 2020 11: 02 New
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    Forecasts of experts in the field of economics more and more resemble attempts to "point a finger at the sky." Moreover, forecasts sometimes differ in diametrical opposite.

    So at US, at THEIR crisis, or did they all go out for a walk ???
    1. Aerodrome 24 March 2020 11: 16 New
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      Experts: After the global coronavirus pandemic, the oil price expects rapid growth
      infa for Putin? What side does a Saudi slaughter refer to the virus?
    2. Round Smesharik 24 March 2020 11: 45 New
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      Quote: rocket757
      Forecasts of experts in the field of economics more and more resemble attempts to "point a finger at the sky." Moreover, forecasts sometimes differ in diametrical opposite.

      So at US, at THEIR crisis, or did they all go out for a walk ???

      They, most likely China lowered from heaven ... hi
      And their US debt was reduced a lot ..
      So the Celestial Empire will again be in the zeros ..
      1. rocket757 24 March 2020 11: 54 New
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        The dollar equivalent of the crisis ... not very interesting. All the same, they will tell and show and with their nose they will try to poke, where without it.
        1. cniza 24 March 2020 14: 07 New
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          There is only one conclusion - you don’t have to wait for anything good, you have to plow and plow ...
          1. rocket757 24 March 2020 14: 11 New
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            listen to all kinds of experts less ... then the dream will be deep and useful.
            1. cniza 24 March 2020 14: 14 New
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              Yeah, especially after a full day of work.
    3. den3080 24 March 2020 12: 17 New
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      Iksperdy. They have such a profession - to grind with their tongues. There is no other content there.
      I see this company here in a box :)) ... empty chimes.

      wassat
      1. Ingvar 72 24 March 2020 12: 33 New
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        Quote: den3080
        Iksperdy

        Namely, and it is not clear which. Surnames, qualifications are absolutely not mentioned. From the same opera as The Leading World Scientists. They seem to want to convince us with one mention of them. laughing Absolutely for suckers people hold.
  2. Ru_Na 24 March 2020 11: 09 New
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    Well, nobody has discovered America here, any competent expert knows that after the fall there will be growth, the question is how long and how strong the fall will be, no one can really predict this!
    1. vladcub 24 March 2020 11: 25 New
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      The fact of the matter is that NOBODY knows ANYTHING. I think now both Trump and Merkel (quarantined) and V.V. ALL are just wondering what will happen next?
      Psychics now have a sharp increase in income. I’m sitting and thinking: maybe I’ll start to guess myself? I'll start hammering money
    2. dauria 24 March 2020 13: 28 New
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      a little bit competent expert knows that after the fall there will be growth,


      Mandatory. Moreover, without such "fluctuations" on the exchange can not earn. So if everything is smooth and even, it is like a knife to the throat for many. Money from the air is made on a swing (well, not quite from the air - they flow from the pockets of manufacturers into the pockets of bankers)
      1. vladcub 24 March 2020 14: 05 New
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        Quote: dauria
        a little bit competent expert knows that after the fall there will be growth,


        Mandatory. Moreover, without such "fluctuations" on the exchange can not earn. So if everything is smooth and even, it is like a knife to the throat for many. Money from the air is made on a swing (well, not quite from the air - they flow from the pockets of manufacturers into the pockets of bankers)

        Will you come to me as a companion? Let's start hanging noodles on ears. True, this is a risky occupation. Remember, "The Adventures of Haeckel Berefin" there, the "noodles" were smeared in resin and crushed
  3. Zeev Zeev 24 March 2020 11: 14 New
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    After a pandemic, oil will skyrocket. But the epidemic is still very far away and in a couple of countries the economy will fall below the plinth.
    1. vkl.47 24 March 2020 11: 50 New
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      Yes, there’s not a couple of countries. Everything will be in the red. The question is who accumulated more grandmothers and that will be extended. The rest of the debts will be quite. And here the IMF with interest) here who will loot the loot under draconian interest after the crisis and on its own terms They are in chocolate.
    2. knn54 24 March 2020 11: 55 New
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      The price of oil will rise, because the production of shale oil is reduced.
      1. Zeev Zeev 24 March 2020 12: 43 New
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        With rising oil prices, shale oil companies will unfreeze their wells and enter the market again, slowing down the price increase. This has happened more than once.
        1. knn54 24 March 2020 13: 23 New
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          Zeyev, there will be a "slowdown" in price increases, but not a fall. Which, again, is not profitable for shale producers.
          Given the sharp rise in the cost of transportation, Russian pipes can also contribute to this process.
  4. bessmertniy 24 March 2020 11: 14 New
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    This is an axiom: after the huge losses caused by quarantine measures and production shutdowns, it will be necessary to restore the economy and the demand for hydrocarbons will increase. But it’s too early to guess when the fall will end and recovery will begin. what
    1. Vasyan1971 24 March 2020 11: 43 New
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      Quote: bessmertniy
      demand for hydrocarbons will increase.

      Therefore, the main question is who will stand, and who will fall and will not be able to stand up. All mess with oil is designed for this. The strongest survives. Or the meanest ....
  5. Mentat 24 March 2020 11: 16 New
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    So it is obvious that the price is artificially low as a result of dumping by Saudi Arabia, and they wrote about it in plain text.

    There is no need to be seven spans in the forehead to understand: as soon as someone is blown away in this price war, oil will go up. And the one who is blown away will lose a significant part of the sales market, which is why all the cheese is boron.

    For a long time this whole situation will not last, by the middle of summer, a maximum by the beginning of autumn, everything will be resolved.

    The Anglo-Saxons wanted to crush Russia, as a result: they lost Venezuelan oil, Russia will take part in production in Syria and Libya. Haha three times.
    I doubt very much that the Saudis will already be able to get out of the water dry, so that in Europe our share will also grow.
    1. voyaka uh 24 March 2020 11: 31 New
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      "lost Venezuelan oil" ///
      ---
      She's so viscous as honey that NO ONE wants to take her. The Russians also refused.
      ---
      "in production in Syria" ////
      ----
      There are no industrial oil deposits in Syria. Small things for export
      fuel trucks.
      ----
      There is a war in Libya. And the oil will go to the Emirates and Egypt if Hartaf defeats.
      1. akims 24 March 2020 11: 50 New
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        I'm sorry, Hartaf, what is this evil wizard?
        1. Ross xnumx 24 March 2020 12: 40 New
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          Quote: akims
          I'm sorry, Hartaf, what is this evil wizard?

          Khalifa Belkasim Haftar (Arabic: خليفة بالقاسم حفتر; born 1943, Ajdabiya, Libya) - Libyan military leader.

          Ah, Hartaf, that’s their diction ... laughing
        2. voyaka uh 24 March 2020 12: 40 New
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          That you just put it: "evil wizard" good
          Haftar, he is a generalissimo, a cool man, the leader of all Bedouins and Berbers
          North Africa.

          About to take Tripoli ...
          1. cniza 24 March 2020 14: 05 New
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            I think it looks more like a "hornless tuareg" ...
  6. Loess 24 March 2020 11: 17 New
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    Thus, we can state the following: forecasts that look extremely strange for today are such that for one of them a barrel of oil will drop in price to almost zero, and for others it will jump at least to 60-70 dollars in a few months.
    I am not an expert and I don’t know what will happen to oil prices, but I’m unlikely to be mistaken if I predict that gasoline in Russia will not fall in price.
    1. Ingvar 72 24 March 2020 12: 36 New
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      Quote: Less
      that gasoline in Russia will not fall in price.

      The minimum will not fall; rather, it will grow a little.
      1. CT-55_11-9009 24 March 2020 13: 06 New
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        An old joke: "Gasoline in Russia rises in price in three cases: when oil rises in price, when oil becomes cheaper and when the price of oil remains unchanged."
  7. sagitch 24 March 2020 11: 19 New
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    The so-called "life after a pandemic" will not be. COvir19 and its mutations will now be with humanity forever. The term of survival for the joy of the government will decrease significantly. The states will erect "iron curtains", will become self-sufficient. Then comes a virus that kills adults, then young and ...
    1. Doctor 24 March 2020 11: 50 New
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      Then comes a virus that kills adults, then young and ...

      Come on horror catch up. There is nothing new under the sun.


      Mankind has not coped with such challenges.
      1. Evil543 24 March 2020 12: 05 New
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        The right set of essentials wassat in spite of the survivors
      2. Keyser soze 24 March 2020 13: 10 New
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        Come on horror catch up. There is nothing new under the sun.


        Only to your note that F.S. Fitzgerald did not write such a letter. Internet creativity.
        1. Doctor 24 March 2020 13: 31 New
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          Only to your note that F.S. Fitzgerald did not write such a letter. Internet creativity.

          Maybe. But now a positive attitude is important.

          Here is another example from ours.
          They also say fake, but as it is written:

          Alexander Sergeevich Pushkin, being in quarantine about cholera in Boldino, addresses
          to us today !!!

          ***
          Excuse me, the inhabitants of the country,
          In hours of mental torment
          Congratulate you from confinement
          Happy Great Spring Festival!

          Everything will settle down, everything will pass
          Sorrows and anxieties will go away
          Smooth roads again
          And the garden, as before, will bloom.

          To help the mind,
          Sweep the disease by the power of knowledge
          And the days of hard trials
          We’ll survive one family.

          We will become cleaner and wiser
          Not surrendering to the darkness and fear,
          Perk up each other
          We will become closer and kinder.

          And let the holiday table
          We will enjoy life again
          May the Almighty send on this day
          A piece of happiness in every home!

          A.S. Pushkin 1827
          1. Keyser soze 24 March 2020 14: 25 New
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            Alexander Sergeevich Pushkin, being in quarantine


            Poems are beautiful :)
            1. The comment was deleted.
    2. Piramidon 24 March 2020 12: 20 New
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      Quote: sagitch
      The so-called "life after a pandemic" will not be. COvir19 and its mutations will now be with humanity forever. The term of survival for the joy of the government will decrease significantly. The states will erect "iron curtains", will become self-sufficient. Then comes a virus that kills adults, then young and ...

      You would not write posts on VO, but write scripts for films on the theme of post-apocalypse for Hollywood. Mad Max would rest.
  8. shuv 24 March 2020 11: 26 New
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    how many people, so many opinions
  9. evgen1221 24 March 2020 11: 28 New
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    That's just a big suspicion that most of the brave American shale is either ha paper or small compasses with scanty efficiency. Yes, and the fact of shale revolution is a good PR for cutting off the high prices of ordinary oil.
  10. AB
    AB 24 March 2020 11: 31 New
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    Experts, bliiiin ... My grandmother wondered, said in two, whether it was rain, or snow, or it would be, or not. It is necessary to drive these predictors with a filthy broom. I can say without any analytics that the average Russian citizen has become poorer by at least 30% and there is no gap in this. We do not have where taxes are canceled, gasoline is getting cheaper and to everyone, I emphasize - to everyone, they send a check for a piece of bucks. We only ... In short, it makes no sense to spread over the tree, you yourself know everything.
  11. sanik2020 24 March 2020 11: 32 New
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    Experts: After the global coronavirus pandemic, the oil price expects rapid growth

    Also experts to me, each Vasya Pupkin sees how many vehicles are put on jokes and the production is closed because of the coronavirus, of course, when all this works, resources will be required.
    But at the expense of swiftness is not a fact, many countries are actively developing alternative energy and every oil crisis only pushes us to get rid of oil dependence.
    But the fact that oil partially (no more than $ 100) will be recouped is a fact.
    1. Egor53 24 March 2020 12: 47 New
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      Dear Sanya!
      In the energy sector, the only alternative to hydrocarbons (oil and gas) is ONLY nuclear power plants. The cost of receiving email. energy at nuclear power plants is 2-2,5 times lower than at conventional thermal stations. Email cost energy in Germany is 65-70% more than in France. There are few AS in Germany, and in France 75% of the total energy.
      https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki Список_стран_по_стоимости_электроэнергии
      Alternative energy sources, wind and solar, are complete nonsense. This alternative energy costs many times more, and its receipt is harmful to the environment disproportionately. In no sovereign country, wind and solar power plants are not built.
    2. svoit 24 March 2020 14: 49 New
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      Rather no higher than $ 10
  12. rotmistr60 24 March 2020 11: 32 New
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    By the way, yesterday we talked about military "experts" who are not much different from economic, energy, etc. The profession is such that you need to say at least something otherwise everyone will forget that you are an "expert." They wrote correctly above - after the fall in oil prices, sooner or later, but the price will creep to the top. And here you don’t even have to be an expert.
  13. vnord 24 March 2020 11: 38 New
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    Quote: voyaka uh
    lost Venezuelan oil "/// --- It is so viscous as honey that no one wants to take it. The Russians also refused.

    The main buyer of the United States, the factories have ground this oil ... The United States imposed an embargo on Venusuela and the latter began to have financial and political problems ..
  14. regdan 24 March 2020 11: 41 New
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    A swift squad awaits some grandmasters, not an increase in oil prices ...
  15. Sayan 24 March 2020 11: 55 New
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    In the meantime, someone will actively love the quietly buying up cheaper assets quietly
  16. maidan.izrailovich 24 March 2020 12: 15 New
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    I'm losing weight .... Captain, evidence ... Mlyn.
    And after each sunset, the sunrise. crying
  17. Egor53 24 March 2020 12: 35 New
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    All hard-to-reach oil (and gas) is called SHALE. This is not an exact term. There is shale oil - Shail oil, and solid oil - tight oil. Not every dense layer is a slate.
    This is determined purely by the method of extraction. It is impossible to extract oil from dense rocks and slate in simple ways. Fracturing is required with the injection of water and propatts into this fractured formation. Proppants are balls 1 - 1,5 mm in size that mimic an easily permeable formation.
    Pressure at a depth of 1 km. about 150 atm., and at 2 km. all 300 atm. When fracturing, the pressure of the injected water (with proppants) should be 50-100 atm. GREATER than reservoir pressure.
    Hydraulic fracturing is expensive. The cost of oil from fractured wells cannot be less than $ 30-40 per barrel.
    The cost of offshore oil is also above $ 30.
    The cost of oil production in Canada (from bitumen sands) is generally more than $ 80 per barrel.
    If the price of oil lasts below $ 30 for at least half a year, shale oil will cease to be extracted worldwide. And the share of shale oil in US production is about 40%.
    Low oil prices will undermine the US economy to a much greater extent than the Russian economy.
    1. Krasnodar 24 March 2020 13: 28 New
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      The share of shale oil in the US GDP is approximately 0,5%.
    2. svoit 24 March 2020 15: 05 New
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      No need to write nonsense and consider everyone as fools, the United States will simply stop shale mining and start buying, the price will settle at $ 30-35, but do we need this?
  18. Mentat 24 March 2020 12: 45 New
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    Quote: voyaka uh
    "lost Venezuelan oil" ///
    ---
    She's so viscous as honey that NO ONE wants to take her. The Russians also refused.
    ---
    "in production in Syria" ////
    ----
    There are no industrial oil deposits in Syria. Small things for export
    fuel trucks.
    ----
    There is a war in Libya. And the oil will go to the Emirates and Egypt if Hartaf defeats.

    Blah blah blah.
    These are the same “no one wants to take” dozens of Venezuelan oil refineries in the US, probably? What are you talking about?

    Nearly 14000 wells were drilled, in 2014 about 3 million barrels per day were produced, 45% of this volume purchased by USA. The largest buyers of Venezuelan oil are also India and China. Who are you trying to hang noodles on your ears here?

    The Russians also refused ... it is probably hard to write more rubbish.
    Do you know that according to Forbes, Russian companies today control 70% of Venezuelan oil production?

    Russia plans to invest $ 20 billion in deposits in the Orinoco River basin alone.
    An agreement was also signed on the extraction of gold by Russian companies and on the supply of grain.
    China is also investing billions in Venezuela.

    So why are you writing ridiculous messages like yours?

    Further, "there is no oil in Syria, only a little for a fuel truck."
    Explored deposits are small. However, as the exploration of the offshore shelf, it became clear that there was a high probability of discovering huge deposits of gas and significant oil off the coast of Syria.

    As for Libya, it was Russia that brought Haftar to the Berlin conference, so our influence in this region is very great. The fact that Russian companies will get part of the development of oil and gas fields is obvious.
  19. dgonni 24 March 2020 13: 25 New
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    Dreams Dreams are how sweet your dreams are!
    Yes, the author and experts are right. After the decline in hydrocarbon prices, the price will go up. The question is, who with what volumes will remain in the market? The Saudis are already in full swing pushing Russia into the European market. Urals somehow suddenly stopped selling. Gas spills over the oil. Dreams of driving oil shale out of the market are just dreams. If 5 years ago, the average cost of oil shale production was at the level of 50-55 per barrel. That is currently an average of 35. Well, all of a sudden! The cost of oil production among Arabs ranges from 3 to 10 killed raccoons. In Russia, from 10 to 25, depending on the field. Dreams of oil at 60-70 can immediately be put on the far shelf. 40-45 will be a dream of the government somewhere in a year. So you need to get used to living in different conditions and price levels. Even if we assume that Sechin and Novak right now go to the Arabs and fall into their legs with the words forgive us not far, we hurried. And the Arabs will accept the cry of Yaroslavna. That level of reduction in production of Russia will not impose not 0,5 lard barrels but all 1,0 and even 1,5.
    So while fat is losing weight, the dead will die.
    1. svoit 24 March 2020 15: 14 New
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      Well, if 1.5 lard allows you to stabilize the price of the barrel at least $ 45 .... This is an offer that you can’t refuse
      1. dgonni 24 March 2020 17: 56 New
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        I agree. Just a question, why was it necessary to refuse 0.5?
  20. cniza 24 March 2020 14: 02 New
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    Thus, we can state the following: forecasts that look extremely strange for today are such that for one of them a barrel of oil will drop in price to almost zero, and for others it will jump at least to 60-70 dollars in a few months.


    Everything is as always, someone will be right ... lol
  21. Gennady Fomkin 24 March 2020 14: 23 New
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    The current crisis has a very strong difference from the previous ones - today credit squeezing is not at all as acute as it used to be. Today, financial and political authorities are flooding the crisis with money from all hoses and hoses. But psychology remains the same as it was hundreds of years ago. And one more curious moment of differences between past and present crises. “An interesting touch of unexpected metamorphoses of modern economic psychology. During the period of a particularly low drop in production indices in 2008–2009, economists began to repeat the idea that the Chinese economy would stretch the whole world, which means that not everything is so scary. A little more, and remember the sacramental: "Abroad will help us." Indeed, the Chinese in many ways pulled the world out of crisis in 2009. But today no one is hoping for China. Today they rely only on a printing press. But you won’t leave on it for a long time ... laughing
  22. Gennady Fomkin 24 March 2020 14: 28 New
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    Tick ​​tock, tick tock, Mr. Powell! laughing
  23. Gennady Fomkin 24 March 2020 14: 31 New
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    Optimist - 13

    Realist - 15

    This is about DOW

    Sanders is an ultra-Trotskyite. laughing The Central Bank can arrange such a rally, but it will be a massacre of financiers. laughing
  24. Gennady Fomkin 24 March 2020 14: 40 New
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    Many people like to talk about oil at 150. Few people think that by this moment a ton of wheat will cost 1000, a clutch on a Toyota 1500 and a zero John Deere more than a million. Many people are happy to watch the dollar turn into waste paper. Few people think that by this moment lira, yen or rupee will turn into dust, and the euro will simply disappear. Many people clap their hands merrily, condemning Kirdyk to your America. Few people understand that kirdyk did not come to America, but to the global economy and the global division of labor. With the collapse of world trade as a bonus. Everything that already happened in the early 90s within the framework of a separate Soviet Union with simultaneously collapsed production chains and frozen industry will now occur on a global market. laughing
  25. Zabvo 24 March 2020 19: 55 New
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    We hardly believe in raising prices in principle, which is now beneficial to everyone.
  26. Whirlwind 25 March 2020 15: 57 New
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    Swift only diarrhea happens ...
  27. honest people 25 March 2020 16: 12 New
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    Quote: Mentat
    So it is obvious that the price is artificially low as a result of dumping by Saudi Arabia, and they wrote about it in plain text.

    There is no need to be seven spans in the forehead to understand: as soon as someone is blown away in this price war, oil will go up. And the one who is blown away will lose a significant part of the sales market, which is why all the cheese is boron.

    For a long time this whole situation will not last, by the middle of summer, a maximum by the beginning of autumn, everything will be resolved.

    The Anglo-Saxons wanted to crush Russia, as a result: they lost Venezuelan oil, Russia will take part in production in Syria and Libya. Haha three times.
    I doubt very much that the Saudis will already be able to get out of the water dry, so that in Europe our share will also grow.

    Kremleboty vanguard