Military Review

Do Russians want war? The whole world is held hostage by oil

90
Do Russians want war? The whole world is held hostage by oil

There will be no winners?



Despite the fact that the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have already launched printing presses at full capacity, the financial losses from the coronavirus will be much more serious than from the oil war. Such a conclusion is made today by almost all reputable experts.

A showdown over oil prices, which Russia and OPEC unexpectedly arranged for the whole world, is nothing more than an addition, even one of the additions to the global problem. And it is not so important that the oil war began under the poorly hidden provocations from the United States and even President Trump personally, who was rubbing his hands at the first sign of it.


Donald Trump, as you know, immediately gave the go-ahead to fill American strategic stores. Now, it seems, it remains to wait for the team to save the shale project. The logic here is simple: what, in fact, is the national state oil industry worse than national agriculture, which has been subsidized from the budget for decades?

It subsidizes, by the way, in spite of all the antitrust rules of the WTO, and mainly due to the buildup of the US public debt, which is already immense. In this regard, only the American military really competes with American farmers, but here no WTO rules can hinder Washington.

However, if the oil war drags on, the amount of subsidies that the US will have to support the same shale project may simply go wild. Do not forget that the Republican Trump is not entirely the creature of the oil lobby, which prefers the Democrats, although indirectly, of course, it is connected with it. It’s not right to work out support, but something like his loyalty, right now, when he has to be re-elected, and the rival, until recently absolutely hopeless, is clearly gaining points due to all the misfortunes.

Yes, positional battles in the confrontation between Moscow and Riyadh are unlikely if China recovers quickly enough, which, incidentally, already has the first signs. In addition, the probability of a complete financial collapse of opponents can be excluded a priori, in which they have a strategic advantage over the European Union and the United States.

After all, the whole point is that oil, even if Saudi Arabia tries to fill the whole world with its black gold, cannot end right away. It is in itself a guarantee of capital. But beautiful pieces of paper with portraits of presidents and bridges under the conditions of quarantine suspension of half of the sectors of the economy will remain so empty pieces of paper.

... Winners are not judged


Almost all experts are now predicting a deep recession for the world economy, compared with which the events of 2008-2009 will seem just a slight malaise. It is clear that Russia will not be afraid of the impending default and that is not why it has accumulated reserves for so many years.

Regularly appearing reports that oil traders selling oil of the Russian brand Urals have serious sales problems. This, of course, is not a fake, but simply a statement of fact. Yes, according to a reputable Bloomberg agency, already last week it was not easy to find a buyer for Russian oil, even at a discount of 3,5-4 dollars per barrel.


But is it worth forgetting that there can be no replacement on the Chinese market for gigantic volumes of Russian oil simply for technological and logistical reasons. The last thesis was confirmed already this week, just after the first reports of the "return" of China. So, if three or four trading sessions back in the Northwest Europe market, Urals quotes fell to an 18-year low of $ 18,67 per barrel, then on Monday they were closely pulled up to a symbolic mark of $ 30.

It is clear that so far no one can exclude the probability of a second wave of coronavirus in the same Middle Kingdom, but most likely there will be no more severe drop in oil prices than now. However, the princes are not going to fold yet weapon. From Riyadh, another “last warning” has already sounded, clearly addressed to Moscow.

Recall that it is not the first time that plans have been announced that you will not call adventurous. The point now is to increase production by almost a quarter - from 9,7 to 12 million barrels per day, and at the same time increase exports immediately by one and a half times - up to 10 million barrels per day. Further, more, if the Russians have a bad business even with a discount of three or four dollars, we Saudis can offer discounts of six dollars for Asia, seven for the USA and all eight dollars for Europe.

It is clear that Europe is the most desirable market for princes after China, and not only in terms of oil, but also in gas. Obviously, it’s not just that the Russian ship “Akademik Cherskiy” was forced to bypass the Suez Canal to lay pipes of the long-suffering Nord Stream 2 (“Nord Stream 2”). After all, one can run into not only American sanctions measures, but simply cannot get water or fuel due to the machinations of a competitor.

The Saudi Arabian oil industry is really prepared for harsh measures, the Bloomberg agency did not report, but after several years with a decrease, it is still only a question of returning to previous positions. We in Russia can only envy such an adversary. After all, it seems that he really has all the possibilities to solve problems by simply turning the valves. And it is not so important that the stock quotes of the national oil company Saudi Aramco continue to fall.


But only the first harsh reaction of OPEC and the Saudi royal family to Russia's refusal to reduce production quotas really came as a surprise to Moscow. In the same Bloomberg there were even commentators who believe that the Russian Minister Novak only "spectacularly and artistically" showed his extreme surprise.

We already answered in rubles


The structure, which is no less authoritative than Bloomberg, is Goldman Sachs, an investment bank that deals with everything that is possible in the financial sector, one of those that by all indications really panics. It’s understandable: money bubbles will burst, and it’s not the same as in the fall of 2008 Fanny May and Freddy Mac burst. Moreover, they continue to inflate them now without any restrictions.

So, it was at Goldman Sachs that the first to sound the alarm about the outbreak of the oil war. Analysts say that with falling demand, frozen industrial production and non-flying aircraft, Saudi Arabia floods the market with millions of barrels of oil. At the same time, not a word of accusation against Russia, but only because it is simply not in a position to fill the market.

Last week’s Saudi Arab Light oil in Europe sold at a discount of $ 10,25 relative to Brent. This did not happen even during the period when the Arab oil industry worked to destroy the USSR, not to mention the summer of 1998, which ended in default for Russia. Is it really in Riyadh, which, in addition to oil and gas, by and large has only armed forces, is seriously planning to deal with the Russians?


Experts disagree on how much “excess” oil is on the market now. But it’s not so important whether it’s about 10 or 15 million barrels, more important, where do they end up, since both fuel consumption worldwide and the loading of deeper refineries have declined globally. This means that a fall in prices will certainly have a delayed negative effect.

What does all this, taken together, coupled with the consequences of quarantine, come across the Russian economy? It is difficult to say, all the more so since Russia has already suffered and continues to suffer real losses, although the biggest difficulties associated with the depreciation of the national currency are still ahead.

The Ministry of Finance made a rather sober and not very encouraging forecast. It follows from this that at an oil price of $ 20 per barrel

“Lost budget revenues will amount to 3,4% of GDP per year. This will make it possible to make ends meet within three years at the expense of the National Welfare Fund in the amount of 10,5% of GDP. ”

With an oil price of about $ 15, the situation will be much worse - the budget may lose 4,4% of GDP per year, and the NWF will last for no more than two years.

The financial department has not yet calculated a deficit budget, although there is someone who can give the state a loan not only abroad, but also inside Russia. But the loss of even 4,4 percent of GDP is not forbidden to anyone honestly lay in the budget. The Ministry of Finance, like the Central Bank, prefers to warn of impending difficulties, according to a bad tradition.

But these difficulties, again, we repeat, will affect primarily ordinary people, but not the oil industry and the budget sphere. Both there, and there airbags should work and will work. We have accumulated rich, even too rich experience in dealing with crises and sanctions.
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  1. The comment was deleted.
  2. Tank jacket
    Tank jacket 25 March 2020 05: 51 New
    +4
    The whole world is hostage to the petrodollar ...
    "Минфин, как и Центробанк, по недоброй традиции предпочитает лишь предупреждать о грядущих трудностях."-
    - Let them introduce a turnover tax, on speculation with the currency, as Gerashchenko introduced in 1998-2000, there are still tools.
    1. Aerodrome
      Aerodrome 25 March 2020 05: 55 New
      +7
      we have a powerful economy, and we tied the laces ... so do not care. (sarcasm)
      1. Tank jacket
        Tank jacket 25 March 2020 05: 57 New
        +5
        It is necessary to untie the string of the IMF from Nabiullina and Siluanov ...
        1. Svarog
          Svarog 25 March 2020 09: 12 New
          +6
          Quote: Tank jacket
          It is necessary to untie the string of the IMF from Nabiullina and Siluanov ...

          Yes, a lot of what is needed .. who only hears you ..
      2. Gene84
        Gene84 25 March 2020 06: 00 New
        23
        Nabiullina will save the country with her financial policy. also sarcasm wassat
        1. Stas157
          Stas157 25 March 2020 06: 22 New
          +5
          . It is clear that Do not scare Russia with future default

          She didn’t go out of there! And it looks like it will not work out until 2036.

          . We have accumulated rich even too rich experience dealing with crises and sanctions.

          Thanks to Vladimir Vladimirovich!
          1. carstorm 11
            carstorm 11 25 March 2020 06: 45 New
            +1
            ha) is he now to blame for the fact that this is happening? ) and world crises occur well only at his will))) the day is becoming more fun)
            1. Stas157
              Stas157 25 March 2020 07: 00 New
              +2
              Well, that you, Vladimir Vladimirovich, are traditionally not to blame for anything! He cannot hold an answer for a cat either, not that for the whole Russian economy permanently suffering from the crisis.
              1. carstorm 11
                carstorm 11 25 March 2020 07: 04 New
                -6
                Yes, I don’t argue) and in 2008 he was to blame and now he launched the virus around the world))) he is omnipotent))) he made the demographic crisis in Europe with his own hands))) and at the same time migratory. all he)))
                1. Fan-fan
                  Fan-fan 25 March 2020 13: 06 New
                  +5
                  Quote: carstorm 11
                  he and the demographic crisis in Europe arranged

                  Нас демография Европы особо не волнует. А вот кто демографический кризис в России устроил, вот это вопрос? Почему у нас рождается людей меньше, чем умирает, а в добавок уезжает больше, чем приезжает к нам? Причём приезжают низкоквалифицированные или вообще не грамотные люди, а уезжают учёные и высококвалифицированные. Кто в этом виноват? Почему власть наша не "чешется", чтобы это исправить?
            2. Malyuta
              Malyuta 25 March 2020 08: 05 New
              13
              Quote: carstorm 11
              ) is he now to blame for the fact that this is happening? ) and world crises occur well only at his will))) the day is becoming more fun)

              It’s his fault that he didn’t give all these 20 years to at least try to jump off the oil needle, but he made money and dust the naive inhabitants with endless promises, contests, championships, forums, crooked lines, and now he he also wanted to rule forever, relying on a fake constitution and a fake vote.
              Nah, we don’t need such hockey !!!
              1. Anika
                Anika 25 March 2020 09: 01 New
                +2
                We needed the Olympics, the championships, look how the infrastructure of the cities pulled up, speed swallows were launched, there was a review of the cities on YouTube, look, you’ll understand that 20 years haven’t been in vain and you don’t sit idly by, if we became a prototype of EBN, it seems to me that we didn’t have such a Russia,
                1. Malyuta
                  Malyuta 25 March 2020 09: 21 New
                  +5
                  Quote: Anika
                  Olympics, championships, we needed, see how the infrastructure of the cities pulled up, speed swallows launched, there is in youtube city ​​overview was-it was look

                  Have you conspired today or what? What have you got there in yubub?
                  A classic of the genre to study the state of the country in Google’s file hosting, and for the completeness of the picture to work out completely, then look at the drain cistern and evening M.
                  1. Anika
                    Anika 25 March 2020 09: 26 New
                    +2
                    They simply show the city street 20 years ago and at the moment, it’s very interesting, and of course it’s better to watch a rutub, but there’s little information so far
                    1. The comment was deleted.
                    2. The comment was deleted.
              2. Alexey Sommer
                Alexey Sommer 25 March 2020 09: 05 New
                -5
                Quote: Malyuta
                It’s his fault that not a damn thing gave all these 20

                Vladimir Vladimirovich is to blame for the fact that you are sitting at 8 in the morning and posting comments, but not earning?
                Ida I do not complain about life, so do not blame me for answering you at 9.)
                Quote: Malyuta
                Nah, we don’t need such hockey !!!

                Кто это "нам", Вы Николай 2, что ли?
                However! ... What a conceit!
                1. Malyuta
                  Malyuta 25 March 2020 09: 16 New
                  +9
                  Quote: Alexey Sommer
                  Vladimir Vladimirovich is to blame for the fact that you are sitting at 8 in the morning and posting comments, but not earning?
                  Ida I do not complain about life, so do not blame me for answering you at 9.)

                  Today you are the first contender for the comment of the day !!! Well, the Shnobel Prize!)))))) good drinks
                  1. Alexey Sommer
                    Alexey Sommer 25 March 2020 09: 17 New
                    -2
                    Quote: Malyuta
                    Well, the Shnobel Prize!))))))

                    Flattered drinks
                  2. Machito
                    Machito 25 March 2020 12: 16 New
                    +4
                    Vladimir Vladimirovich promised citizens 25 million jobs by 2020. I look at the calendar, the year coincides, there are no jobs. Promises remained promises.
                    1. ccsr
                      ccsr 25 March 2020 17: 58 New
                      +3
                      Quote: Bearded
                      Vladimir Vladimirovich promised citizens 25 million jobs by 2020.

                      So he created them, but for some reason, not all our citizens want to work for our citizens, so they had to import migrants:
                      Nearly 16,5 million foreign citizens were registered with migration in 2019,

                      What Putin lied to if our businessmen do not want to evaluate the work of compatriots so that we do not need migrants? Here is what really happened:
                      What the FSB Border Service Revealed
                      In the first half of 2019, 2,4 million foreigners said they arrived in Russia for work, follows from the calculations of RBC according to the statistics of the FSB border service for the indicator “Entry of foreign citizens into the Russian Federation”. In total, in January-June of this year, more than 15 million foreigners arrived in Russia, taking into account all the purposes of the trip (business, work, tourism, study, transit travel, moving to permanent residence, private, staff of vehicles).

                      Read more at RBC:
                      https://www.rbc.ru/economics/16/08/2019/5d5560979a7947af4fa8a883
                      They didn’t try to ask themselves the question - why are our employers so greedy that they are more willing to take migrant workers rather than their compatriots? Mauger is not a matter of Putin, but of our people, those who are willing to take advantage of the current situation?
                    2. Sling cutter
                      Sling cutter 25 March 2020 23: 34 New
                      +2
                      Quote: Bearded
                      I look at the calendar, the year coincides, there are no jobs. Promises remained promises.

                      But did someone promise that he would cease to promise? So here it is necessary to accept a separate decree or amendment to the constitution.
                    3. Sling cutter
                      Sling cutter 25 March 2020 23: 55 New
                      0
                      Quote: Bearded
                      Promises remained promises.

              3. Sling cutter
                Sling cutter 25 March 2020 23: 31 New
                0
                Authentic vidos !!!! good drinks I can look at it endlessly. Thank you from Soul, rjunemagu laughing laughing good
            3. Vadim777
              Vadim777 30 March 2020 09: 25 New
              -1
              ha) is he now to blame for the fact that this is happening? )


              And who killed a small business in early 2000? Not Vladimir Vladimirovich?
          2. sleeve
            sleeve 25 March 2020 08: 05 New
            -2
            Seriously? GDP thanks for the sanctions?
        2. Tank jacket
          Tank jacket 25 March 2020 06: 45 New
          0
          Evil languages ​​say that the leadership and management of the Central Bank are connected by kickbacks with banks that make good money on the instability of the ruble ...
          1. mavrus
            mavrus 25 March 2020 07: 44 New
            +4
            Quote: svp67
            The reason for the outbreak of war is clear to everyone. Just numbers. In 2018, according to the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA), the United States exported an average of 2 million bpd (barrel per day). In March of this year, exports exceeded 4 million barrels per day (bpd), reaching 4,4 , XNUMX million bps. Increase in more than TWO TIMES. The Americans expanded their pipeline networks from production sites to storage and loading facilities, while simultaneously increasing the number of oil terminals in ports. To speak and negotiate with OPEC about the next decline in production, in such conditions, it is to give markets to your competitor on your own, who does not agree on any agreements.

            Therefore, they came up with a great plan ... Collapse the ruble.
            Правильно: "Бей своих, чтобы чужие боялись!"
          2. Svarog
            Svarog 25 March 2020 09: 17 New
            +3
            Quote: Tank jacket
            Evil languages ​​say that the leadership and management of the Central Bank are connected by kickbacks with banks that make good money on the instability of the ruble ...

            Do not listen ... this is the fifth column, enemies .. in fact, the key posts in the Russian state are crystal clear people .. wassat For this reason, we are not afraid of crises .. just our economic geniuses will not allow this ..
        3. Svarog
          Svarog 25 March 2020 09: 13 New
          +3
          Quote: Gene84
          Nabiullina will save the country with her financial policy. also sarcasm

          Я бы "спасет" заменил у вас на "пасет" laughing
      3. AlexVas44
        AlexVas44 25 March 2020 06: 37 New
        +2
        Quote: Aerodrome
        and we tied the laces ... so do not care. (sarcasm)

        It is a pity that they did not manage to stroke the laces. laughing
    2. siberalt
      siberalt 25 March 2020 06: 49 New
      +8
      Here pan or disappeared. But once the petrodollar should come to an end. Everyone will suffer. This is a world financial war.
  3. samarin1969
    samarin1969 25 March 2020 06: 03 New
    +7
    With an oil price of about $ 15, the situation will be much worse - the budget may lose 4,4% of GDP per year, and the NWF will last for no more than two years.


    Вообще-то Трамп может вообще "обнулить" экспортные поставки. И может это сделать также, как поступил с СП-2: "недемократический газ" дополнится истерикой про "авторитарную нефть". Китай пока "проседает". И на ВО была статья, что КНР и США договариваются о "сепаратном" восстановлении импорта американских углеводородов.
    Те, кого на Западе упрощённо называют "русскими" действительно не хотят "войны". Но кто их спросит?
    Автор вторую надежду на "позитив" увидел в тщетности "триллионных" усилий США и ЕС для запуска роста фондового рынка. Это про доллары, которые "так пустыми бумажками и останутся". laughing Вполне возможно. Вчерашние 9-11% роста акций/индексов - это банальная скупка государством акций "паникёров". В РФ тоже так пытались удержать "тихую гавань" в 2008м. Потом поняли, что "триллионы небезграничны" и подняли курс. Пока вирус действительно может подорвать рынок США.

    If you believe the media, then Trump sees a way out in squeezing from the markets of the Russian Federation. The Russian Federation answers in its own style: discounts for Belarus, airplanes in Bergamo and tries to appeal to Adam Smith. wassat
    Probably it is worth introducing an emergency mode and state regulation in the Russian economy. Otherwise, chaos. bully
    1. siberalt
      siberalt 25 March 2020 06: 53 New
      +4
      So it turns out that the amendments to our constitution are a kind of intermediate option for preparing a new one in connection with the future, a different economy. We will see.
  4. Scipio
    Scipio 25 March 2020 06: 04 New
    +7
    Our economists in government remind me of doctors, and our economy is a man in a coma. The only thing these doctors are capable of is to support the patient in a coma, periodically the truth either causes problems or improvement, but to remove the patient from the coma and make him healthy, they either cannot or do not want .....
    1. Vladimir61
      Vladimir61 25 March 2020 07: 46 New
      -5
      Quote: Scipio
      ... but to remove the patient from a coma and make him healthy, they either can not or do not want .....
      Судя по вашему краткому, но "сочному" комментарию, вы наверное, это можете? Так подскажите этим неумехам... Разве можно "скрывать" профессиональные таланты, которые принесут пользу стране и обществу.
      Otherwise, it's just a chatter and a desire to seem smarter than the rest.
      1. Scipio
        Scipio 25 March 2020 11: 28 New
        +4
        Will you write down and pass it on ??? What do you need to do? Investing in your economy, opening production, making loans cheap for business and the public, and most importantly spending money efficiently, rather than scatter it in your pockets ..
        1. Vladimir61
          Vladimir61 25 March 2020 12: 20 New
          -5
          Quote: Scipio
          Will you write down and pass it on ??? What do you need to do?

          I'm not literate!
          П.и.ш.у п.о б.у.к.в.а.м - недаром нас, ранее, называли Страной Советов. Вокруг одни советчики , эксперты, критики и заумные блогеры..., - "языком трепать, не мешки ворочать".
          1. Scipio
            Scipio 25 March 2020 12: 34 New
            +4
            Are there only advisers around? Wrong, I am a citizen of this country and everything that happens in it concerns me directly, just like any other citizen of the Russian Federation. Do you have no desire for a country to order, if there is no corruption? Do not want this?
    2. Alexey Sommer
      Alexey Sommer 25 March 2020 09: 09 New
      -6
      Quote: Scipio
      Our economists in government remind me of doctors

      That’s what exactly you have for the March in your life has changed for the worse, can you say?
      1. Scipio
        Scipio 25 March 2020 11: 35 New
        +2
        He stopped production, engaged in the production of building materials. Demand fell, 1 warehouse is full and 1 is almost half full, at which time warehouses usually begin to empty.
        I would send people to houses, but fortunately for them and for me there is another area of ​​activity where I transferred them .... What else do you need?
        1. Alexey Sommer
          Alexey Sommer 25 March 2020 11: 37 New
          -2
          Quote: Scipio
          He stopped production, engaged in the production of building materials.

          Yes, I’m working at a construction site.
          We're fine.
          How can I help you?
          In which region do you work and what do you supply?
          I think I'm lying.
          But I can help as I can.
          I can help. No kidding.
          1. Scipio
            Scipio 25 March 2020 11: 45 New
            +1
            I am engaged in the production of blocks, buyers are private clients, discard your offer for help in a PM, let's see which of us is responsible for our words
            1. Alexey Sommer
              Alexey Sommer 25 March 2020 11: 46 New
              0
              Region?
              what blocks are you doing?
              Mark?
              Company card?
              To make blocks, you need your own RBU.
              I doubt that you have the opportunity to have your own RBU.
              This is an expensive pleasure.
              Who has RBU does not sit on VO)
        2. Alexey Sommer
          Alexey Sommer 25 March 2020 11: 42 New
          -1
          Igor do not be silent!
          Annoying.
          What materials do you release?
          Waiting for specifics.
          I think you're a liar, but I hope I'm wrong ..
          1. Scipio
            Scipio 25 March 2020 11: 47 New
            +1
            Write in a personal
            1. Alexey Sommer
              Alexey Sommer 25 March 2020 11: 54 New
              0
              Yes, write here)
              Вы же "режим" обличаете в общем чате?)
              So here and write your details))
              1. Scipio
                Scipio 25 March 2020 11: 58 New
                +2
                If you can help but chatter, leave this help to yourself
                1. Alexey Sommer
                  Alexey Sommer 25 March 2020 12: 02 New
                  0
                  Quote: Scipio
                  If you can’t help but chatter

                  Not constructive of you.
                  Region indicate where you are dying of starvation and the map of the company.
                  Kindly?)
                  I think you are a liar)))
                2. Alexey Sommer
                  Alexey Sommer 25 March 2020 12: 05 New
                  0
                  Garik really looking forward)
                  1. Scipio
                    Scipio 25 March 2020 12: 10 New
                    +1
                    I wrote everything to you, empty talk is not interesting.
                3. Alexey Sommer
                  Alexey Sommer 25 March 2020 12: 08 New
                  -1
                  GARRRIIII)
                  Why are you keeping silent?)))
                  1. Scipio
                    Scipio 25 March 2020 12: 13 New
                    +2
                    Everything is written above. Either we are specifically discussing everything in PM, or you can continue to try to troll me here
                    1. Alexey Sommer
                      Alexey Sommer 25 March 2020 12: 20 New
                      0
                      Specifically write in which region is your sharaga write?)
                    2. Alexey Sommer
                      Alexey Sommer 25 March 2020 12: 28 New
                      0
                      Wrote in PM.
                      Waiting for an answer)
                      I won’t leave you behind
                      1. Scipio
                        Scipio 25 March 2020 12: 36 New
                        +2
                        You are very mistaken if you think that you will be able to bother me and infuriate me. Waiting for specific offers in PM
                      2. Alexey Sommer
                        Alexey Sommer 25 March 2020 12: 54 New
                        0
                        Igor wrote.
                        Yours! drinks
  • svp67
    svp67 25 March 2020 06: 06 New
    +6
    The reason for the outbreak of war is clear to everyone. Just numbers. In 2018, according to the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA), the United States exported an average of 2 million bpd (barrel per day). In March of this year, exports exceeded 4 million barrels per day (bpd), reaching 4,4 , XNUMX million bps. Increase in more than TWO TIMES. The Americans expanded their pipeline networks from production sites to storage and loading facilities, while simultaneously increasing the number of oil terminals in ports. To speak and negotiate with OPEC about the next decline in production, in such conditions, it is to give markets to your competitor on your own, who does not agree on any agreements.
    1. carstorm 11
      carstorm 11 25 March 2020 06: 52 New
      -7
      you haven’t entered here yet that all this growth dynamics amid a decrease in production of OPEC and us. question. but why was it necessary to reduce production if it was all immediately occupied by state products? Why did our companies freeze their projects? in order to give their place with their own hands? a reduction in quotas was the scam we got into. and the hysteria of the Saudis only proves it. Well, they would have reduced production themselves and everything would have been fine. and prices would not collapse.
      1. lwxx
        lwxx 25 March 2020 07: 40 New
        +5
        I would add here. Saudis can give oil even for free, but! Overseas and heifer are a cradle, but the ruble is transported. Everything depends on delivery, they already have problems with tankers, maybe everyone is busy storing cheap oil in the hope of increasing. A new problem is brewing in the oil market In recent days, rates for supertankers have increased by 700% (up to $ 200-300 thousand per day) And this is a rental that eats up all the discounts. We are saved by oil pipelines.
    2. Alexey Sommer
      Alexey Sommer 25 March 2020 09: 10 New
      +1
      Quote: svp67
      Increase in more than TWO TIMES.

      Thanks for the constructive comment. good hi
  • DMB 75
    DMB 75 25 March 2020 06: 06 New
    10
    We have arrived, we can’t do anything without oil. In the Soviet Union, all this would not have been so painful, there were developed industry and agriculture, and now we are sitting and wondering about the whole country, how much a barrel of oil costs now and how much it will cost tomorrow ...
    1. carstorm 11
      carstorm 11 25 March 2020 07: 00 New
      -9
      then the world was a little different. consumption was much less. there are far fewer people on the planet. 4 billion - 1974; 5 billion - July 1987; 6 billion - October 1999; 7 billion - October 31, 2011. it will only get worse.
      1. nikvic46
        nikvic46 25 March 2020 08: 27 New
        +3
        Dmitry. India, China, Indonesia are already 3 billion people. Other countries would not withstand such a load.
    2. Alexey Sommer
      Alexey Sommer 25 March 2020 09: 11 New
      -2
      Quote: DMB 75
      We’ve arrived, we can’t do anything without oil. In the USSR, all this would not be so painful

      Can you bet?)
      Have you ever lived under the USSR?
      I have been on the planet since 1972, and you?
    3. Alexey Sommer
      Alexey Sommer 25 March 2020 09: 54 New
      -8
      Quote: DMB 75
      Under the USSR, all this would not be so painful

      But actually you can clarify ..
      What happened to you so painful?
      Do not talk about $. because in my life so far I don’t see the difference from the course.
      If you see, please indicate specific examples.
      1. Alexey Sommer
        Alexey Sommer 25 March 2020 10: 01 New
        -5
        Cripples are mental!)
        You cannot even formulate arguments, just minus how stupid people are from around the corner.
        Miserable)
      2. Svarog
        Svarog 25 March 2020 10: 36 New
        +4
        Quote: Alexey Sommer
        Do not talk about $. because in my life so far I don’t see the difference from the course.

        You probably get in ZP dollars? laughing
        1. Alexey Sommer
          Alexey Sommer 25 March 2020 10: 39 New
          -6
          Quote: Svarog
          You probably get in ZP dollars?

          No in rubles.
          And what has changed ?!
          Everything was as it was in the shops.
          You indicate the difference, only specifically.
          I seriously want to understand that this happened to you.
        2. Alexey Sommer
          Alexey Sommer 25 March 2020 11: 20 New
          -4
          Like Vysotsky ..
          In response to silence)
          1. 2 Level Advisor
            2 Level Advisor 25 March 2020 14: 08 New
            +2
            Alexey, nothing changes in the economy (prices for the final consumer) in 2-4 weeks, the inertia is large, and when the maximum changes by May / May, your question will be of no interest to anyone .. But! If you really are not a Troll, but really do not understand, you can poke me in mid-May, for example, because prices have not changed much since the beginning of March and I admit my mistake, ok?
    4. The comment was deleted.
  • rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 25 March 2020 06: 32 New
    +2
    the oil war began under poorly concealed provocations by the United States and even President Trump personally, who was rubbing his hands at the first sign of it
    Имея такую подтанцовку как Саудовская Аравия почему бы не потирать руки в надежде, что он (Трамп) в отличии от Обамы действительно "разорвет в клочья" экономику России. Но почему-то не просчитал, что в долгосрочном порядке это ударит и по Сша или надеялся на то, что наша страна быстренько поднимет лапки к верху? Да и у "подтанцовки" оказались еще и свои планы. Авторы сделали расклад по Сша и СА, покритиковали российское правительство, а что предлагается? Или нам нужно было сразу идти на уступки и соглашаться на невыгодные предложения ОПЕК (читай саудитов), чтобы американский план быстренько претворить в жизнь? Справедливости ради порадовала и придала оптимизма концовка
    We have accumulated rich, even too rich experience in dealing with crises and sanctions.
  • rocket757
    rocket757 25 March 2020 06: 40 New
    +2
    There will be no winners?

    Not a fact, not a fact ... who and how later will calculate, and will say \ define himself, others ... whom, where!
  • rocket757
    rocket757 25 March 2020 06: 44 New
    +2
    Oil, it is NOT ONLY !!! - Indeed, it’s not only an energy-rich natural resource, it’s now in all corners and holes. dependent on her.
    We will break through, it’s understandable, the question is how we will be able to take advantage of the advantages, how we will be able to level out the disadvantages!
  • Cowbra
    Cowbra 25 March 2020 07: 16 New
    -2
    But these difficulties, again, we repeat, will affect primarily ordinary people, but not the oil industry and the budget sphere. Both there, and there airbags should work and will work.

    Wait, in fact you are saying that the striker can and will be - but we dampen. And these are whose words:
    But is it worth forgetting that there can be no replacement on the Chinese market for gigantic volumes of Russian oil simply because of technological and logistical reasons. The last thesis was confirmed already this week, just after the first reports of the "return" of China.

    It seems not fools, but an article - dope, beating in the trash and at times. Guys! A smarter come up with?
    The financial department has not yet calculated a deficit budget, although there is someone who can give the state a loan not only abroad, but also inside Russia.
    True - it is necessary to say where the error is ?!
  • Stas157
    Stas157 25 March 2020 07: 20 New
    -4
    . But, again, these difficulties will be affected. first of all ordinary people, but not the oil industry and not the budget sphere.

    The state is not for people. Rather - not for ordinary people.
    1. Cowbra
      Cowbra 25 March 2020 07: 35 New
      -5
      Quote: Stas157
      not for ordinary people.

      “But you need to drive you in, B-run out,” Fyodor Simeonovich said in an unexpectedly calm voice. “You, it turns out, are an n-unpleasant figure.”

      - P-stop demagoguery! - finally exploded, and Fedor Simeonovich. - K-how are you not ashamed to carry such nonsense? What kind of n-simple person am I to you? And what kind of word is this - n-simple? This d-duplicate is simple! ..
      1. Stas157
        Stas157 25 March 2020 07: 45 New
        0
        Are you afraid of your rejection to express directly and for this, quote other people's quotes? Fine and cowardly.
        1. Cowbra
          Cowbra 25 March 2020 07: 50 New
          -3
          Stasik, I quoted citations of such people. that you’re not good for them. This number of times. And number two. who of you mnu and you are a coward ... Hehe. I’m not so sure that I
          1. Stas157
            Stas157 25 March 2020 07: 56 New
            -1
            Quote: Cowbra
            Stasik ... you’re not good for them. This number of times. And number two. which of mnu and you are a coward... hehe. I’m not so sure that I

            Do not worry so much! But yes, the truth is she is - it hurts.
            1. Cowbra
              Cowbra 25 March 2020 08: 29 New
              -4
              Well, you sew a wound) And God forbid, bring something unkind to it) A training manual. eg
  • Gennady Korsunov
    Gennady Korsunov 25 March 2020 07: 28 New
    -3
    I don’t know who the whole world is hostage to. But We Russians are definitely held hostage by our mediocre rulers !! The country is flying downhill in all spheres of life, and this is true. If the people do not expel Putin and his thieving accomplices we kirdyk .. Urgently need to look for people like Primakov, Maslyukov, Gerashchenko !! This is my opinion, born in 1953, who worked on a helicopter and experienced the delights of a perestroika cap. democracy ..
    1. podymych
      25 March 2020 07: 46 New
      +3
      Gennady Korsunov (Gennady Korsunov) Today, 07:28 AM NEW

      Namely - Primakov, Maslyukov, Gerashchenko
      https://topwar.ru/145268-eto-my-obyavili-defolt-dvadcat-let-spustya-chast-1.html
      https://topwar.ru/145271-eto-my-obyavili-defolt-dvadcat-let-spustya-chast-2.html
      1. Cowbra
        Cowbra 25 March 2020 07: 52 New
        -1
        And so?
        https://alex-leshy.livejournal.com/1459174.html
  • 72jora72
    72jora72 25 March 2020 08: 05 New
    +3

    But these difficulties, again, we repeat, will affect primarily ordinary people, but not the oil industry and the budget sphere.
    Quote: Gene84
    Nabiullina will save the country with her financial policy. also sarcasm

    You are in a blow today. good
  • nikvic46
    nikvic46 25 March 2020 08: 38 New
    0
    Хотят ли русские войны? Конечно не хотим.Именно для этого и существует армия и флот.Но вот тему мира четко не хотим обозначить.В отличии от Китая.Что будет в будущем одному Творцу известно.Читаю,жильцам надо освободить коммунальные квартиры.Все это связывает с эпидемией.И " заботой" о платеже коммунальных услуг. А куда они пойдут? Из одного общежития в другое? И это предлагает депутат ГД. Ну заморозь им квартплату. Глупость простирается далеко,как вселенная.
  • Aleks2048
    Aleks2048 25 March 2020 08: 45 New
    0
    It might be better to sponsor Iran or their terrorists with a ready-made weapon a little, but to a sufficient extent, so that the oil production of the princes might not be completely, but noticeably destroyed. Pulling the strings can some crazy there are a couple of tankers drown. The main thing is not to overlook. lol
  • Octopus
    Octopus 25 March 2020 08: 55 New
    +3
    The authors wrote some incoherent nonsense. For what purpose they did this - it is not clear.
    financial losses from coronavirus will be much more serious than from the oil war. Such a conclusion is made today by almost all reputable experts.

    The financial losses from the cove are monstrous. There are no financial losses from the oil war in general, developed economies - oil consumers only benefit, everyone is hit by drumming.
    the oil war began under poorly concealed provocations from the United States and even President Trump personally, who was rubbing his hands at the first sign of it.

    And why should Trump be against it?
    Is the national state oil industry worse than national agriculture, which has been subsidized from the budget for decades?

    The authors rave. Agricultural in the States by European standards is the realm of wild capitalism. There are many songs on oil taxes, but to name what is happening subsidized, and even from Russia-it is strong.
    the amount of subsidies that the US will have to support the same shale project can simply go wild.

    1. Why subsidize them? How much does it cost to pay benefits to their former employees?
    2. Что значит "могут зашкалить"? 6 мбд сланцевой добычи, субсидия 20 баксов на баррель = 120 млн.долл. в день, 40 млрд в год. Тот же самый эффект можно получить, введя налог на импортную нефть в том же размере, чтобы внутриамериканская цена стала не 20, а 40. Затраты на субсидирование для общества те же, но бюджет в плюсе, а не в минусе.
    the probability of a complete financial collapse of opponents can be ruled out a priori, in which they have a strategic advantage over the European Union and the United States.

    What?
    oil ... in itself is capital provision

    I recall the great friend of Russia Manduro (by the way, where is he?) And his new currency, El Petro.
    Is it worth forgetting that there can be no replacement on the Chinese market for gigantic volumes of Russian oil simply because of technological and logistical reasons.

    Russia's share in China's oil imports last year is 15%. Half as much as in EU imports.
    stock quotes of the national oil company Saudi Aramco continue to fall.

    How to speak. Look at the RTS.
    lose 4,4% of GDP per year, while the NWF is enough for no more than two years.

    As if the Russian government did not put a bolt on the economy. These are accountants, they give an assessment budget revenue shortfall specifically from the oil industry. What they will receive when the currency shock once again cracks in other sectors, they themselves do not know and do not want to know.
  • Aleks2048
    Aleks2048 25 March 2020 09: 05 New
    -3
    In general, seriously, then my opinion needs to be hit on the hegemon by joining forces with China. China with its labor force and the Russian Federation with resources can turn the tide of the economic potential of the EU and the US ... Moreover, it is necessary to unite efforts with China, and not territories and peoples. Maybe joint sanctions against Google and companies using their products or something else need to be beaten in vulnerabilities ... Everything except transportation ... If the hegemon at least staggers, then the princes’ problems will be reset to nothing. But this is in theory ... But will China be friends with us?
  • Zoer
    Zoer 25 March 2020 09: 25 New
    0
    Quote: carstorm 11
    Yes, I don’t argue) and in 2008 he was to blame and now he launched the virus around the world))) he is omnipotent))) he made the demographic crisis in Europe with his own hands))) and at the same time migratory. all he)))


    Yes, yes ... In France, the cancellation of utility bills. In the US, helicopters of money, $ 1000 each ...
    В РФ: "А чего это у нас топливо так быстро дорожает" (с) В.В. Путин. Про падение курса нац валюты синхронно падению цен на нефть, как следствие 20ти летнего стабилизца, про это вообще скромно умолчим.
  • Grading
    Grading 25 March 2020 12: 15 New
    0
    Quote: Anika
    We needed the Olympics, the championships, look how the infrastructure of the cities pulled up, speed swallows were launched, there was a review of the cities on YouTube, look, you’ll understand that 20 years haven’t been in vain and you don’t sit idly by, if we became a prototype of EBN, it seems to me that we didn’t have such a Russia,
    Kremleboty switched to shift schedule? good
  • honest people
    honest people 25 March 2020 14: 33 New
    0
    Quote: Anika
    We needed the Olympics, the championships, look how the infrastructure of the cities pulled up, speed swallows were launched, there was a review of the cities on YouTube, look, you’ll understand that 20 years haven’t been in vain and you don’t sit idly by, if we became a prototype of EBN, it seems to me that we didn’t have such a Russia,