The debacle of environmental activists: the green era is postponed again


The nature, which the numerous adherents of various ecological movements defended so frantically, suddenly played a cruel joke with them. Victory seemed to be near! A little more, and the world governments will tremble under the onslaught of the followers of Greta Tunberg, marching under the banners of all shades of green - and they will erase the last “unclean” TPPs from the face of the Earth, after which they will transfer all their fellow citizens to electric vehicles, marking the worldwide triumph of environmentalists. But it was not there…


The COVID-19 pandemic broke out, world industrial production collapsed, transport links between the countries fell to an unimaginable minimum, and fossil energy prices rapidly plummeted. Oil was added fuel to the unfolding fierce confrontation over rapidly shrinking markets for energy raw materials, which ultimately resulted in a natural “oil war” between OPEC countries (primarily Saudi Arabia), Russia and the United States. Calling “black gold” this familiar definition for us, after the price per barrel has dropped to $ 25-27, the language doesn’t really turn around ...

What does the environmental activists have to do with it? I will try to explain it as clearly and concisely as possible. To start with the example of China, which, as you know, is one of the world's leading energy importers.

The comrades from the Middle Kingdom build the entire economic policy of the state with a distant aim to ultimately earn by themselves, and not "work for an uncle." Not wanting to feed the exporters of oil and gas, this country is more than fruitfully working on the development of renewable energy, which does not depend on fossil resources at all. Moreover, China has plenty of places for the deployment of entire fields of solar panels or “forests” of wind generators, and it has the appropriate technologies.

According to reports, Beijing planned to invest more than $ 350 billion in green energy in the coming years, getting rid of the vagaries of oil traders, and at the same time creating millions of jobs for its own citizens. Recently, however, something has not been heard about the progress in implementing these plans. They began to curtail them even before the coronavirus epidemic, at the height of the “trade war” with the United States: it was too expensive and it worked out for a long time. Now, when oil is approaching in value, alas, to tap water, the Celestial Empire doesn’t have the slightest sense of tearing and investing in “clean” energy sources. A country that could become the world leader in green energy today does not need it, but in the most rapid and effective recovery of its economy. Cheap oil here will certainly be more reliable than windmills.

About the same история with the Old World, in recent years, almost obsessed with "achieving hydrocarbon neutrality by 2050." A pompous plan to implement this grandiose idea was presented by the European Commission on March 4 this year. And then the coronavirus came ... Yes, yes, and drove everyone you know where. Under the hurricane overwhelming completely inevitable crisis and recession, during which the bankers, industrialists, and ordinary citizens will no longer have the ecological and climatic "horror" from the Norwegian girl and she sang along. Here to survive!

The figures that calculate the amount needed to compensate for the damage from the “greening” of the transport, energy and industrial sectors of the economies of the European Union countries can make any economist turn gray. If it was originally about 100 billion euros, then after some time a little more realistic people in Brussels calculated that, by 2050, perhaps five times as much investment would not be enough for a real transfer of the entire EU to “no-blow” technologies and the like. It is clear that now, after walking through the Old World, sowing decline and ruin, COVID-19, no one will allocate such money for "green" fantasies. Especially when you take into account the fantastic cost reduction of traditional, familiar energy resources, under which European industry, infrastructure, and transport are “imprisoned”. The Green Age is delayed again.

Once upon a time, it was calculated: at the current cost of the rechargeable batteries, electric cars will be able to “defeat” cars with internal combustion engines in cost and profitability only at an oil price of more than $ 300 per barrel! With half the price reduction (which is so far unscientific fiction) of this main unit of the electric car - at $ 100 for the same oil barrel. To all other miracles of "alternative", "renewable", "green" and other energy, this applies to approximately the same extent. Cheap (and all the more ridiculously cheap) fossil fuels instantly take them beyond profitability. And, consequently, the projects related to them are deprived of prospects for implementation.
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  1. Arlen 19 March 2020 06: 23 New
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    Victory seemed to be near!

    The crisis will pass, the pandemic will defeat the medicine, and then the “green” ones will return. They will return with a greener grin and squeeze Europe.
    1. Cowbra 19 March 2020 06: 45 New
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      Amen. If Europe wants to jump from a bridge, you should not hold it, otherwise you can fly with it into the muddy waters.
    2. mavrus 19 March 2020 07: 52 New
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      Green will return as a green stripe on the LGBT flag
    3. Mikhail3 19 March 2020 09: 21 New
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      Quote: Arlen
      Victory seemed to be near!

      The crisis will pass, the pandemic will defeat the medicine, and then the “green” ones will return. They will return with a greener grin and squeeze Europe.

      Only if Europe continues to be rich. And this is a big question.
  2. Uncle lee 19 March 2020 06: 27 New
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    Everything fell into place! And then - eco-cars! And where to get electricity to charge them,
    and the manufacture and disposal of batteries pollutes the planet worse than nuclear power plants, state district power stations and car exhaust!
    1. siberalt 19 March 2020 06: 41 New
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      That's right, comrade. Extraction of "green energy" also requires costly energy. The production of finished energy (oil, gas, uranium or coal) does not depend on drought, weather and flora disease.
  3. Strashila 19 March 2020 06: 38 New
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    "" Alternative "," renewable "," green "and other energy", it is clear how people always rush to the extreme. If you think about the logic of "green" energy, it doesn’t exist in fact, this is a fake. It's just that all the dirt from the production of components of this "green" energy is located somewhere far beyond the mountains. All "environmental", "green" organizations are in fact akin to the action of saboteurs and terrorists operating in the financial interests of multinational companies.
    It is clear that nature must be protected - our mother, but wisely.
    1. Mestny 19 March 2020 08: 57 New
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      According to the theory of the "golden billion" everything is in order.
      This same billion lives in ecologically ideal conditions, and the energy for this is generated in the territories of those who have not entered it.
    2. EMMM 22 March 2020 10: 02 New
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      Actually, the price of each product reflects the energy consumption of its creation. That is, if an electric car costs 3 times more than a gasoline one, then it took three times more energy to create it (I will not talk about the cost of disposal). It is a fact.
  4. apro 19 March 2020 06: 42 New
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    Who in their right mind can consider green as independent organizations? There is an order against oil platforms ... paid bills. Begin actions. Also against nuclear waste. Whalers. Diesel engines. For electric cars. There is no order. Pass by and do not frown. .
    1. Strashila 19 March 2020 10: 47 New
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      how many under these slogans they closed in the country in 90 plants
  5. Valery Valery 19 March 2020 06: 44 New
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    Now the terrible girl Greta will not go to school because of quarantine.
  6. nikvic46 19 March 2020 06: 59 New
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    When the greens were noisy, their focus was primarily on gas imports from Russia. Errors in alternative energy are obvious. But those who do not look to the future are buried in their own problems. To trade, you need to have a flair for a trader. If there is a person in the ordinary market with two trucks of potatoes, this does not mean that he will get the desired profit. He is smart with his flexibility and will not lose income, and will laugh at the newcomer.
  7. rocket757 19 March 2020 07: 33 New
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    "green mold" receded temporarily and for objective reasons ... just as long as the technology does not allow its use to be sufficiently competitive compared to the use of hydrocarbons. This is not forever and this also needs to be prepared.
    1. Mestny 19 March 2020 08: 59 New
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      Technology and can not oppose anything traditional.
      Unless of course a fundamental breakthrough happens. Which is also unlikely
      1. rocket757 19 March 2020 09: 16 New
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        Quote: Mestny
        Technology and can not oppose anything traditional.

        Some parameters of modern products will improve, but it will not be very significant and decisive.
        Quote: Mestny
        Unless of course a fundamental breakthrough happens. Which is also unlikely

        Will be, but WHEN ???
        1. Mestny 19 March 2020 09: 20 New
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          Scientists tell us that fundamental breakthroughs should not be expected. The physical picture of the world, that is, its explanation as a whole, is formed. No breakthroughs such as the victory over gravity, the movement of masses over vast distances, the receipt of energy from sources now unknown are not expected.
          1. rocket757 19 March 2020 09: 30 New
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            La hell. "father dear" promised us the same thing on unknown physical printers !!! how not to believe him!
            1. Mestny 19 March 2020 09: 44 New
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              And without these footnotes in any way?
              By the way, he had in mind several other things.
              1. rocket757 19 March 2020 10: 25 New
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                The question is ... who did it mean?
                I do not like and do not respect those who are in power with us now and do not hide this. This is a principled position. I do not like talkers ... however, hardly anyone loves them at all.
                The GDP mentioned systems, weapons based on new physical principles, it was so ... I didn’t talk about energy.
                And so ... in the morning the mood is so "bright", from the edge, to the edge shakes. BUT, I do not go beyond the bounds of decency, I do not need this.
  8. mavrus 19 March 2020 07: 56 New
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    Quote: rocket757
    "green mold" receded temporarily and for objective reasons ... just as long as the technology does not allow its use to be sufficiently competitive compared to the use of hydrocarbons. This is not forever and this also needs to be prepared.

    Technology does not yet make green energy less dirty.
    1. rocket757 19 March 2020 09: 19 New
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      Quote: mavrus
      Technology does not yet make green energy less dirty.

      Everything is correct. There is harm from the "green", just camouflage it, I hide, the usual practice of manufacturers and sellers.
      In general, we are waiting with what really new, breakthrough, scientists will invent ....
  9. Kot_Kuzya 19 March 2020 08: 03 New
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    It has long been estimated that even if all the land is built up with windmills and solar panels, then this will not be enough to provide humanity with electricity. All these windmills and panels are just crazy.
    1. Mestny 19 March 2020 08: 59 New
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      And they do not need all of humanity. They only need an elite part of it.
    2. Galleon 19 March 2020 09: 36 New
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      No good said except the last sentence. Windmills and panels are not nonsense. Proof: 50% of Denmark's electricity is wind power.
      1. Mestny 19 March 2020 09: 43 New
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        The issue is on a scale. I’m absolutely sure that if you build up most of Europe with windmills (and you will have to be effective), this will greatly affect the distribution of air masses across the Earth. Which of course will lead to a climate disaster.
        This is without taking into account the necessary energy and materials for the production and installation of these same windmills.
      2. Kot_Kuzya 19 March 2020 10: 33 New
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        Can I link?
        1. Galleon 19 March 2020 11: 09 New
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          Catch
          http://operby.com/energosistema-danii-vetroenergeticheskij-raj-ili.html
          1. Kot_Kuzya 19 March 2020 14: 08 New
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            And where do you see 50% energy substitution there? This is at the peak of 50%, and on the nadir it is generally 10%. Where did you get such liars from?
            1. Galleon 19 March 2020 14: 37 New
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              It is clear that you perceive any spray as "God's dew." And the fact that China in the wind produces energy, like 25 of our Novovoronezh NPPs, you did not see in the article? In vain.
              And if they began to be expressed in astronomical terms, then at the zenith of 50%.
              1. Kot_Kuzya 19 March 2020 17: 20 New
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                Well, of course! So conveniently jumped to China, whose consumption is 15 times more than the consumption of Russia. So, admit that you cheated with Denmark?
                1. Galleon 19 March 2020 18: 17 New
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                  Get out of here! Tired of it.
                  1. Kot_Kuzya 19 March 2020 19: 26 New
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                    Merged. There are no facts that 50% of Denmark’s consumption is covered by green energy. You are a liar! And by the way, I drove to the house and looked at your link. It says about 39%, not about 50, as you claimed. You are doubly a liar! However, like all demagogues juggling with numbers.
  10. The comment was deleted.
    1. Kot_Kuzya 19 March 2020 09: 32 New
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      Cut down electricity at home, cut off the wires and get electricity from the panels and windmill. Show an example, if so, skipping for renewable resources.
      1. Pay
        Pay 19 March 2020 10: 34 New
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        Going to the goal usually needs to be done step by step gradually, and the offer to drop everything and run ...
  11. 7,62h54 19 March 2020 08: 26 New
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    I don’t know what’s in China and others, but at such a pace depreciating the ruble and zeroing the standard of living of the electorate, our Dear Leader will transfer the people to pedal and horse-drawn vehicles.
    1. Mestny 19 March 2020 09: 01 New
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      So we will go horse-drawn.
  12. bar
    bar 19 March 2020 08: 33 New
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    at the current cost of the rechargeable batteries that feed them, electric cars will be able to “defeat” cars with internal combustion engines in cost and profitability only at an oil price of more than $ 300 per barrel!

    Again these iksperdy. At least one of them calculated how many times it is necessary to increase the generation of electricity to charge these "winners" of internal combustion engines? And did anyone suggest a way how to do this without thermal power plants, nuclear power plants, etc. "dirty technologies"? “Green Technologies” is not yet able to even replace the already existing electricity generation, which they already need to increase it several times. All these dances around electric cars and "green energy" resemble a matinee in a kindergarten. Well, Greta Tumberg with her oligophrenia is excusable, but why are adults being fooled? And who benefits from all this coven? Chinese manufacturers of solar panels and batteries?
    1. Mestny 19 March 2020 09: 08 New
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      Quote: bar
      “Green Technologies” is not yet able to even replace the already existing electricity generation, which they already need to increase it several times. All these dances around electric cars and "green energy" resemble a matinee in a kindergarten.

      Everything is based on psychology here. If for example a resident of Germany is told that as a result he will drive an electric car and the air will be clean, he will gladly agree.
      And really - where he lives will be so. What will happen where this energy will be generated and batteries produced will not interest him at all. The main thing is that everything will be all right with him.
      This "green energy" is only for the elite. This must be understood.
      1. bar
        bar 19 March 2020 09: 13 New
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        This "green energy" is only for the elite. This must be understood.

        And the rest of the unselected will cook food on a fire from renewable fallen leaves?
        1. Mestny 19 March 2020 09: 27 New
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          The rest will be killed first. Because some on the planet came to the conclusion that so many people are not needed. It is useless and harmful. Maybe, ideally, they will kill themselves or simply die of hunger and disease.
          All the rest will be first lowered into the Stone Age.
          Those who remain will work in factories, power plants, and so on. To do this, they will be washed, taught the simplest operations, and built them the simplest huts. What they will be grateful for.
          And the civilized part will use all this. The medicine of the future, the cleanest environment, the achievements of high technology.
          The population of the planet will be no more than 1 billion people, and most likely even less.
          This is not a joke, and not a conspiracy thesis. This is how they offer to save the planet.
          1. Kot_Kuzya 19 March 2020 09: 31 New
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            The elite will live on the Emerald Isle (the current island of Britain) as in the science fiction book Hungry.
            1. Mestny 19 March 2020 09: 40 New
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              There are more comfortable living areas. For example, in the United States. No wonder the authors of these ideas come from there, and the films they shoot are appropriate. For example, The Hunger Games.
              Only in them everything is not serious, for teenagers. reality can be many times larger and inhumane. Hitler with his childhood fascism will nervously smoke around the corner.
              1. Kot_Kuzya 19 March 2020 10: 34 New
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                Britain, as the second world power and the youngest partner of the United States, will join the elite club.
        2. unhappy 19 March 2020 09: 30 New
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          I have a nuclear station 60 kilometers away. I do not buy oil and logging. I do not enter the golden billion. hi
          1. bar
            bar 19 March 2020 09: 40 New
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            Sorry. Only 45 km away from me is an institute with almost a dozen operating reactors and with several damped ones.
            We will all be there ...
            1. unhappy 19 March 2020 09: 43 New
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              But not from the virus.
  13. Operator 19 March 2020 11: 07 New
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    How do you like oil for $ 20, Elon Musk? laughing
  14. honest people 19 March 2020 13: 11 New
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    Quote: Strashila
    "" Alternative "," renewable "," green "and other energy", it is clear how people always rush to the extreme. If you think about the logic of "green" energy, it doesn’t exist in fact, this is a fake. It's just that all the dirt from the production of components of this "green" energy is located somewhere far beyond the mountains. All "environmental", "green" organizations are in fact akin to the action of saboteurs and terrorists operating in the financial interests of multinational companies.
    It is clear that nature must be protected - our mother, but wisely.

    And these pity you do not read! laughing



  15. ccsr 19 March 2020 13: 42 New
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    Author:
    Alexander Kharaluzhny
    Once upon a time, it was calculated: at the current cost of the rechargeable batteries, electric cars will be able to “defeat” cars with internal combustion engines in cost and profitability only at an oil price of more than $ 300 per barrel!

    The problem is not so much the cost of oil as the fact that we do not have so many rare-earth metals that even the entire current fleet of cars (and it will grow) will be transferred to batteries - they are sorely lacking and their price is constantly growing. That is why no one in the next twenty to thirty years will be able to transfer humanity to electric cars, well, unless they create a cheap and reliable fundamentally new battery of electricity.
    1. Gado 19 March 2020 16: 03 New
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      But the answer to all this catavasia lies in a nutshell - thermonuclear fusion.
  16. dgonni 19 March 2020 17: 40 New
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    Haraluzhny reminds me of Miller who kept repeating about the shale soap bubble. If the author is not in the know, then green energy was one of the factors in the fall in oil and gas prices! And if the author did not understand again. That low energy prices will not stop this process. Low prices, it reduces the cost of production of all components of wind, hydro and solar power plants! So by 2050, they will go to zero to the grandmother do not go.
    To understand the situation! In Europe, in fact, the era of coal has already ended, on the threshold of the end of the era of oil in terms of energy, gas and atom are on the way. Progress does not stop whether the author wants to or not!
  17. honest people 19 March 2020 18: 29 New
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    Quote: ccsr
    Author:
    Alexander Kharaluzhny
    Once upon a time, it was calculated: at the current cost of the rechargeable batteries, electric cars will be able to “defeat” cars with internal combustion engines in cost and profitability only at an oil price of more than $ 300 per barrel!

    The problem is not so much the cost of oil as the fact that we do not have so many rare-earth metals that even the entire current fleet of cars (and it will grow) will be transferred to batteries - they are sorely lacking and their price is constantly growing. That is why no one in the next twenty to thirty years will be able to transfer humanity to electric cars, well, unless they create a cheap and reliable fundamentally new battery of electricity.


    Lithium and cobalt deficiency for batteries

    Open and accessible at current prices, lithium reserves will be enough to produce more than one billion electric vehicles - this is exactly the whole world car fleet. The consumption of cobalt per electric vehicle over the past 6 years has fallen by 4 times. The real problem could be that the lithium and cobalt mining industry is not keeping pace with market demands. But in fact, including due to a reduction in the use of cobalt, it, on the contrary, is developing at a faster pace. Because of this, since the beginning of 2018, there has been a serious overproduction on the market of these metals: in a year and a half, the price of cobalt fell three times, the price of lithium - by 45%.
    1. ccsr 19 March 2020 18: 52 New
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      Quote: honest people
      Open and accessible at current prices, lithium reserves will be enough to produce more than one billion electric vehicles - this is exactly the whole world car fleet.

      Not everyone shares this optimism:
      The avalanche-like growth in the production of hybrid cars in the world has led to the unexpected problem of the shortage of rare chemical elements used in various components of these cars. This was during the aerospace conference in Barcelona, ​​said the consultant and author of a number of studies, Jack Lifton.
      According to the expert, it is time for consumers of rare earth metals to think about the fact that the reserves are not endless. In the coming years, the demand for a number of rare-earth elements will exceed supply by 40 thousand tons annually if new deposits are not discovered.
      Most of all, the production of hybrids requires elements of lanthanum and neodymium belonging to the group of rare-earth metals. The first of them is used in batteries, and the second - as an alloy component for the manufacture of magnetic coils of electric motors. For example, one Toyota Prius contains 1 kg of neodymium and 10-15 kg of lanthanum, and there is a direct correlation between the energy efficiency of the hybrid and its need for rare earth elements, writes AutoNews.Ru.

      http://www.battery-industry.ru/2009/09/03/хватит-ли-запасов-редких-металлов-на-з/
  18. honest people 19 March 2020 19: 06 New
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    Quote: ccsr
    http://www.battery-industry.ru/2009/09/03/хватит-ли-запасов-редких-металлов-на-з/

    Of course, I apologize, but I think that the Kremlin boat should update the manuals and not refer to the 2009 article? crying
    1. ccsr 20 March 2020 20: 30 New
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      Quote: honest people
      Of course, I apologize, but I think that the Kremlin boat should update the manuals and not refer to the 2009 article?

      And what has the situation with rare earths in the world changed, Mask propagandist?
      Learn what was recently reported at VO:
      Recently, there has been a sharp jump in prices for these strategic metals. For example, the cost of zinc in 2005 increased by 403%, uranium in 2006 - by 778%, molybdenum in 2007 - by 809%, silver in 2010 - by 443%. Rare earth metals soared even more. Since 2008, their price has risen on average 20 times. The price of the most expensive rare earth metal, europium, used in monitor screens, medical imaging, nuclear and defense industries, increased from $ 403 per kilogram in 2009 to $ 4,900 in 2011.

      https://topwar.ru/119743-mirovaya-bitva-za-redkozemelnye-metally.html
      So where will they come from to transfer all cars to batteries if they are missing now and prices are constantly rising?
  19. honest people 21 March 2020 06: 37 New
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    Quote: ccsr
    Quote: honest people
    Of course, I apologize, but I think that the Kremlin boat should update the manuals and not refer to the 2009 article?

    And what has the situation with rare earths in the world changed, Mask propagandist?
    Learn what was recently reported at VO:
    Recently, there has been a sharp jump in prices for these strategic metals. For example, the cost of zinc in 2005 increased by 403%, uranium in 2006 - by 778%, molybdenum in 2007 - by 809%, silver in 2010 - by 443%. Rare earth metals soared even more. Since 2008, their price has risen on average 20 times. The price of the most expensive rare earth metal, europium, used in monitor screens, medical imaging, nuclear and defense industries, increased from $ 403 per kilogram in 2009 to $ 4,900 in 2011.

    https://topwar.ru/119743-mirovaya-bitva-za-redkozemelnye-metally.html
    So where will they come from to transfer all cars to batteries if they are missing now and prices are constantly rising?

    You still agreed on the training manual. And continue to sell the country for 30 pieces of silver, tell us that green energy is a myth electric cars that we should sleep peacefully and do not worry, we will exchange our oil and gas for beads!
  20. Vadim777 24 March 2020 09: 25 New
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    Another article from the category of nefig to develop new technologies, OIL OUR