How the US and Saudi Arabia played against us

149

The current oil crisis repeats the situation of 1985-1986. when the USA and Saudi Arabia played against the USSR. A strong drop in prices for "black gold" dealt a severe blow to the then Russia-USSR.

True, the opinion that the oil war has destroyed the Soviet Union is erroneous. The USSR collapsed not because of falling oil prices, but because of a variety of reasons, internal and external (like the Russian Empire in 1917). The main reason was the conscious course of part of the Soviet elite towards the destruction of Soviet civilization and the integration of its fragments into the capitalist world. The face of this course was Gorbachev, the future "best German." The degraded Soviet elite wanted to become part of the global elite, gain real power, privatize (steal) people's wealth and “live beautifully”.



Union of the past against the Red Empire of the future


Soviet (Russian) civilization, even after the death of Stalin and the “perestroika” of Khrushchev, remained the world and society of the future. In the USSR, processes were happening secretly that frightened the Western elite. The USSR-Russia could still rush to the stars, overtake all mankind for generations. Become a society of philosopher thinkers, teachers, creators and warriors. This frightened the Western society of slaveholders and slaves (disguised as a consumer society). The masters of the West could lose a big game on the planet.

For all its shortcomings, the decay of the nomenclature and the old system, which ceased to be updated regularly, as under Stalin, the Soviet Union carried a powerful charge of creation. The core of society and civilization of the future. "Beautiful far away." Russia could break into a new era, the “golden age", leaving the West in the distant past. The symbol of the "golden age" of the Union was a man-creator, creator, a man who revealed his spiritual, intellectual and physical potential. A man penetrating the secrets of the human psyche, learning the secrets of the atomic nucleus, designing settlements on the moon and Mars, in the depths of the ocean and spacecraft.

However, this sunny tomorrow did not take place. He was ruined by the union of the dark forces of the past, including representatives of the Soviet elite who wanted to "live beautifully," for whom the bars and strip clubs were more important than the palaces of culture and spaceships. Literally everyone who was against the Russian "golden age" went on the attack against the USSR. The capitalist world opposed the USSR, essentially continuing the traditions of the ancient slave system. The world of the rule of money, the "golden calf." The leader of the Western world, the United States, entered into an alliance with other fragments of the past, with Saudi obscurantists, Pakistani fundamentalists, the Vatican, etc.

Alliance of the USA and Saudi Arabia


The medieval kingdom, where “oil communism” was built for the indigenous population and its sheikhs (during the slave-owning exploitation of visiting workers), was an important ally of Washington and a key figure in the final battle with the USSR. The largest "oil barrel" of the world in the hands of religious obscurantists and slaveholders. At the same time, the center of Islam: the guardian of Muslim shrines, Mecca and Medina. One of the richest countries in the world where sheikhs simply bathed in dollars when “black gold” became the basis of the energy of human civilization.

Saudi Arabia has become a powerful "ram" of the United States, directed against the USSR. With its help, it was possible to bring down oil prices from $ 35 per barrel in 1980 (taking into account inflation in the 2000s, it is over $ 90) to $ 10 per barrel and lower in 1986 (about $ 20 at the rate of the 2000s ) Also, thanks to the Saudis and Pakistan, the West was able to intensify the war in Afghanistan.

The Americans brought the Saudis under control in the 1970s and made Saudi Arabia their instrument. As a punishment for supporting Israel in the 1973 war, Arab countries imposed an oil embargo on the West. It did not last long, but caused a serious panic. Western capitals suffered from a lack of fuel, and crowds for durable goods began in stores. The authorities had to prohibit the use of personal cars for a while. Black Gold Prices "soared from $ 3 to $ 12 per barrel in one year. This hit the US and Western Europe economies hard. The crisis showed the true extent of the dependence of developed Western countries on oil prices. But oil exporters bathed in money. Especially Saudi Arabia. The USSR also won by increasing oil supplies to Europe. However, there was a downside, the dependence on the so-called. oil needle. It seemed: why further develop production if you can prosper from the sale of resources?

Washington skillfully used this situation. Countless riches went to medieval barbarians. Excellent! The Americans proposed their option for the further prosperity of the Saudis. At the same time, without the development and change of lifestyle (parasitization on resources). The Saudis transferred their oil billions to the United States, bought the securities of the American state and corporations. They themselves lived on interest from investments, bathed in luxury. Could build (not themselves, with the help of Western designers, engineers and poor workers from poor countries in Asia) new cities in the desert, skyscrapers, first-class roads, bridges, airfields, ports, buy luxury yachts, planes, etc.

Thus, the more Saudis received petrodollars, the more they returned to the United States. The kingdom became financially dependent on the United States, its military power, and stably supplied America with "black gold", no longer bullying prices. Instead, the Westerners built a modern civilization for the slave-owners-obscurantists, cities with the most advanced infrastructure, an oil refining industry, oil terminals, ports, water pipelines, desalination plants and water treatment plants, power plants, a network of excellent roads, airports, etc. All modern industry appeared in cities consumption and luxury. Arabs were inundated with the best goods from around the world: European, American and Japanese cars, Japanese electronics, luxury goods from Europe, etc. Sheikhs and other Arab rich people could collect beauties from around the world in their harems. At the same time, the Saudis themselves did not work! They didn’t produce anything themselves! Thousands of highly qualified specialists from the USA and Western Europe and tens of thousands of slave workers from Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Egypt and other countries worked for them.

The United States also provided the armed "roof" of the oil monarchy, bursting with fat. Stronger and well-armed neighbors flocked to a wealthy kingdom: Iraq, Iran and Syria. Shiite Tehran considered Riyadh a traitor to the Islamic world, spreading under the power of the overseas “golden calf”. The Iranians wanted to carry out the Islamic revolution in Arabia in their own way, chop off part of the territories and plant a friendly regime in Riyadh. Yemeni tribes were also not averse to disturbing the calm sleep of wealthy neighbors. Tear off part of the oil-rich territories of the Saudis (previously they were part of Yemen). In addition, Washington made the Saudis reconcile with Israel.

Saudis v. USSR


In just a few years, Saudi Arabia has changed. It has become a modern state. Externally. But retained its slave-owning nature. All Saudi finances are under US control. Now the Arab monarchies were financially interested in strengthening the United States. In keeping the planet the same order.

In the spring of 1981, CIA chief Bill Casey visited the Saudi capital Riyadh. He met with the head of royal intelligence, Prince Turki ibn Faisal (head of intelligence in 1977–2001). The Saudi prince was on good terms with D. Bush Sr., vice president of Reagan. Bush, an American oil tycoon and former head of the CIA, began a relationship with the Turks back in the 70s. The connection between the Bush clan and the Saudis has become one of the powerful threads connecting Washington and Riyadh.

Casey promised the Saudis a "roof" for the United States. The guarantee of military protection by the United States and the rearmament of the Arab army according to NATO standards. In exchange, Riyadh joined the “holy war” against the USSR and increased oil production, knocking down the price of “black gold” and inflicting an economic blow on Russia. And since natural gas in the world market is getting cheaper after oil, the economic blow was double. Moscow's gas plans suffered damage. Also, the Saudis, together with the Americans, had to finance the Afghan Mujahideen, who fought with the Russian troops, through a network of "non-governmental funds". In addition, Western and Islamic secret services wanted to organize and support the anti-Russian underground in the "southern underbelly" of Russia - in Turkestan, and then in the Caucasus and the Volga region. The United States planned to transfer the war from Afghanistan to the north, to the Soviet republics of Central Asia.

In the autumn of 1981, the US Senate approved the rearmament of Saudi Arabia, in particular, the sale of new radar aircraft to it (Boeing E-3 Sentry). Earlier, Washington had given Riyadh guarantees that the American rapid reaction forces would protect the kingdom if necessary (Iran’s attack). In 1982, the head of the Pentagon, Caspar Weinberger, visited the Saudis. He agreed on a plan to defend the kingdom from possible attacks by Tehran. Then the Reagan administration closed information on the investments of Arab sheikhs in the US economy.

Casey again visited Riyadh, where he met with Prince Fahd (the fifth king of Saudi Arabia in 1982-2005). Like, we defended you, it's time to work out. It's time to bring down the price of "black gold". It is worth noting that the decline in oil prices was not a strong blow to the kingdom itself. From the fall in resource prices, the US economy began to grow, that is, their securities, in which the sheikhs invested. On the other hand, the lower the price of oil, the less motive for Europe to buy natural gas from Russians and pull gas pipelines from Russia. That is, Saudi Arabia maintained its market in Europe. Fahd agreed in principle. In the summer of 1982, he became king and began to pursue the policy necessary for Washington. Saudi Arabia, along with Pakistan, helped the United States wage war against the Russians in Afghanistan. Organize the project: "Holy Jihad against the Russians." So Saudi Arabia entered the united front of the war against communism and the Russian world.

It was in the 70-80s that the union of British, American special services with the Saudis and Pakistanis gave rise to a monster - a bloody "black caliphate." Oil dollars and terror and sabotage specialists created the so-called international terrorism. The program "Islam against communism" (de facto - Russian) was supposed to lead to the defeat of the USSR-Russia in Afghanistan, to blow up Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Volga region. It is worth noting that part of this program was the future civil massacre in Tajikistan and the war in Chechnya. In Central Asia, an alliance of radical Islamists, nationalists and drug dealers is forming.

Pakistan entered the Saudi-US alliance, which became the rear base for the war in Afghanistan, which was another blow to the USSR. Pakistan has become the rear base and springboard for Afghan gangs. There they rested, were treated, replenished ranks, trained and armed. In exchange, Pakistan began to receive large loans from the West (IMF and IBRD), helped the local regime to stay in power, wrote off debts. Saudi money was bought weapon and transferred to Pakistan to arm bandits. Pakistani intelligence and the CIA controlled this process. The Americans provided weapons, intelligence, helped with the organization, money and propaganda of the "holy struggle"; Saudis - financed the war; Islamabad provided Afghan militants with a place to rest, replenish, trained, armed and transferred them to Afghanistan. The Afghan "spirits" themselves performed the role of "cannon fodder."

As a result, the United States, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan did not fight the USSR. But they were able to drag the USSR into the Afghan war quagmire, at great expense. Got the opportunity to destabilize the southern regions of the Soviet empire. The Afghan war was a serious test for the already sick Soviet society, spoiled by Brezhnev's "golden stagnation."

Oil shock


In 1985, the United States devalued the dollar by a quarter. Depreciated your public debt. They “threw” their creditors - the Americans themselves, Europeans and Japanese. At the same time, American goods became cheaper, exports grew, and the economy revived. At the same time, a blow was inflicted on the USSR. Contracts for the supply of oil and gas abroad were calculated in dollars. That is, the actual income of the USSR from the sale of resources fell by a quarter. But that was not enough. The Americans wanted to crash oil prices.

The Saudi hour has come to work out debts. Washington pressed King Fahd and his clan. The Saudis were also informed in advance about the future devaluation of the dollar. They were able to timely transfer personal capital to another currency. In August 1985, Riyadh sharply increased production of "black gold" from 2 million barrels per day to 6 million, then to 9 million. Oil prices are falling. Natural gas prices have also gone down. The economy of the USSR, from the time of Brezhnev planted on the "oil needle", was greatly shocked. The surplus in foreign trade was lost: now the USSR spent more than it earned. Moscow had to sell gold. The blow was all the more painful because at that time there was a change of power. Gorbachev's team took over the country and began the "perestroika". Soon, the Gorbachev gang surrendered the USSR to the West.

The Saudi strike took Moscow by surprise. They did not expect the sheikhs to chop the branch on which they themselves were sitting. After all, the raw material war painfully hit the oil monarchies. The Great Oil Crash halved the annual incomes of the Saudis themselves, other Arab monarchies, inflicted a powerful blow on all the world's gas stations: Iraq, Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Algeria, Mexico, etc. After all, everyone is used to dollar abundance, life doesn’t affordable. Saudi Arabia after the 85th year found itself in a protracted socio-economic crisis. The Saudis had to go into debt. Only the new oil boom of the 2000s straightened its position. But the golden times of the 70s never came back.

Thus, Washington forced the Saudis to act contrary to national interests. The selfish interests of the king and his clan were placed above the interests of the whole people. The Americans used personal connections and the corrupt, clan-mafia nature of power in the kingdom to their advantage. The Saudi family chose to collapse the oil market, but saved personal capital (invested in the US financial pyramid) and their asses.
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  1. +19
    18 March 2020 15: 06
    it was Sechin who advised Putin to break the agreement.
    The deal is dead: Russia has abandoned the largest decline in oil production since 2008
    Saudi Arabia failed to convince Russia to agree to the largest reduction in oil production since the global crisis. Agree to extend the previous terms of the transaction to OPEC + countries


    Saudi Arabia was proposing a new reduction in production by 1,5 million barrels per day, a third of which was to come from non-OPEC members, that is, Russia. This proposal was intended to curb the fall in prices due to the coronavirus epidemic.
    Russia and Neopec accounted for a decrease of 0,5 million barrels per day - about 2%.

    According to an unnamed source, Bloomberg, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak notified colleagues that Moscow supports the preservation of the existing terms of the deal until June. Officially, Novak has not yet commented on the position of Russia. On Wednesday, he left the OPEC + monitoring committee meeting ahead of schedule, disagreeing with the arguments of other countries.


    Interviewed by The Bell analysts, economists and market participants do not see rational economic reasons for Russia to exit the transaction with OPEC. “I'm in a light shock. This is a very unexpected, irrational, to put it mildly, decision, ”said The Bell co-owner of Lukoil Leonid Fedun.
    1. +17
      18 March 2020 15: 17
      The selfish interests of the king and his clan were placed above the interests of the whole people. The Americans used personal connections and the corrupt, clan-mafia nature of power in the kingdom to their advantage. ... family ... saved personal capital ... and their asses.

      Is this about Saudi Arabia? Is it not so in the largest country in the world today?winked
      1. +7
        18 March 2020 15: 24
        Quote: lexus
        Is this about Saudi Arabia?

        Of course! Could you really suspect a slave in the galleys and his relatives in such indecency? laughing
        "You argue apolitically" (c) laughing
      2. 0
        24 March 2020 16: 19
        The selfish interests of the king and his clan were put above the interests of the whole people

        Is it the Saudis - that people? Arabs are a people, and the Saudis are a small herd of glossy donkeys.
        The Saudis have no concept of the people, there is a sheikh and his servants.
    2. +9
      18 March 2020 15: 24
      Quote: Dmitry Vladimirovich
      Analysts, economists and market participants do not see rational economic reasons for Russia to exit the transaction with OPEC

      They are simply not there. Political reasons: China, in order to quickly recover from the coronovirus collapse, asked to lower the price of oil. The authorities could not refuse to partner, as could not predict the collapse of the ruble. After Novak’s demarche, the Saudi crown prince wanted to get in touch with Putin, but he was inaccessible. The Crown Prince is very wayward and emotional, he decided to take revenge on the Russian Federation. He gave the order to increase production and reduce the price. Later, Iraq and Qatar joined the Saudis. After the incident, now the Kremlin subscriber was looking for a conversation with the Crown Prince, but he was cold. Oil prices continued to fall. Judging by the publications, the Arabs make up their budget for the 20th year, based on the price of $ 13 per barrel.
      1. 0
        18 March 2020 15: 31
        Quote: Silvestr
        After the incident, now the Kremlin subscriber was looking for a conversation with the Crown Prince, but he was cold.


        Well, at least the Saudi princes lowered the Kremlin prisoners to the ground.
        1. +8
          18 March 2020 16: 01
          Quote: Dmitry Vladimirovich
          Well, at least the Saudi princes lowered the Kremlin prisoners to the ground.

          And now the Kremlin sitters will recoup their wet panties on their people. But the Kiselevs, Solovyovs and the Scabeyevs will rush to tell how everything is fine with us.
          1. +2
            19 March 2020 15: 17
            It was in any case only the crisis was planned according to forecasts for 2021-2022
      2. +8
        18 March 2020 18: 01
        Have you seen how you dialed a phone number? Attended the negotiations? And so on .... who is right, who is to blame for the time, but without knowing the facts, without reading the documents, making such statements is to say the least
        1. +1
          18 March 2020 19: 01
          Hello, Andrey
          You went to the site at a time when sofa "experts" - oilmen who think that gasoline is being extracted from a well, gathered there.
        2. -3
          20 March 2020 14: 25
          Quote: Andrey VOV
          Have you seen how you dialed a phone number, attended the negotiations?


          You know - there are also channels for the receipt of information, except for the zombies and clicks from Rosneft.
          It is enough to have a desire to understand the big picture.
          On March 6, Novak informed his counterpart from Saudi Arabia that Russia would no longer reduce oil production. “The ministers were so shocked that they did not know what to say,” one of the negotiators told the agency. Another informed source told Bloomberg that the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia even wanted to call Putin on March 6th. But a spokesman for the Russian president made it clear that Putin would not intervene.

          https://www.yandex.ru/turbo?utm_source=turbo_turbo&text=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.ru%2Fnewsroom%2Fbiznes%2F394569-bloomberg-uznal-soderzhanie-razgovora-putina-s-neftyanikami-pered-razryvom
    3. +4
      18 March 2020 18: 59
      Because LUKOIL has long been sitting only on production and, unlike SURGUTNEFTEGAS and even ROSNEFT, has not been looking for new deposits for a very long time. Therefore, Mr. Fedun is unhappy - LUKOIL has nothing to increase production, and even in the future nothing is visible.
    4. +5
      18 March 2020 19: 17
      Quote: Dmitry Vladimirovich
      “I'm in a light shock. This is a very unexpected, irrational, to put it mildly, decision, ”said The Bell co-owner of Lukoil Leonid Fedun.

      What else could he say if Lukoil is an American company?
      Check out those who own the company:
      The top managers of the company in July 2010 owned the largest package (more than 30%) of the company’s shares, including Vagit Alekperov, president of Lukoil, 20,6%, and 9,08%, vice-president Leonid Fedun. ConocoPhillips, an American oil company, owned 19,21% (by February 2011, this company completely withdrew from Lukoil’s shareholders, selling its shares, and partially to Lukoil itself) [21] [27] [28] [29]. The remaining shares were freely traded on the London Stock Exchange, Frankfurt Stock Exchange, RTS, MICEX. Market capitalization - $ 64,4 billion (September 1, 2008) [30]. The nominal holders of Lukoil shares that carry out their storage and accounting are: 61,78% - Bank of New York, 10,79% - Cyprus company LUKOIL EMPLOYEE LIMITED (controlled by the Bank of Cyprus through Odella Resources Limited).
      In March 2020, Vagit Alikperov owned a 3,11% stake in Lukoil[31].
      From 1993 to the present, Vagit Alekperov is the president of PJSC Lukoil [32].
      The board of directors of the company includes 11 members. The Board of Directors elected on June 21, 2017 [33]: Vagit Alekperov, Victor Blazheev, Valery Graifer, Igor Ivanov, Ravil Maganov, Richard H. Matske, Lyubov Khoba, Toby Gati, Roger Mannings, Ivan Pictet, Leonid Fedun. Valery Graifer was elected Chairman of the Board of Directors.

      It is not surprising that Alikperov lost his share in the shares from 20,6% to 3,11%, and the most interesting is not reported who now owns the largest stake.
    5. +4
      19 March 2020 03: 41
      six months before, Russia had warned that it could no longer reduce production. Due to the OPEC + transaction, the commissioning of the Russian Rosneft field was already postponed from 2017 to the fourth quarter of 2018, and the Taas-Yuryakh, Tagulskoye and Kuyumbinskoye (the first two are Rosneft, the last is its joint venture with Gazprom Neft) were launched not at the beginning, but only at the end of 2018.
  2. -2
    18 March 2020 15: 09
    Well - sooner or later, we’ll take account of the Saudis too .. When we take off the bourgeoisie and build the USSR 2.1 ... And in it, we will take into account all the mistakes of the past and remember everyone and everything .. Including our traitors.
    1. +12
      18 March 2020 15: 33
      Quote: paul3390
      we will take into account all the mistakes of the past and remember everything and everything .. Including our traitors

      So were the Saudis friends? Enemies do not betray, betray only their
    2. +1
      18 March 2020 18: 06
      Quote: paul3390
      Well - sooner or later, we’ll take account of the Saudis too .. When we take off the bourgeoisie and build the USSR 2.1 ... And in it, we will take into account all the mistakes of the past and remember everyone and everything .. Including our traitors.

      Well, yes, attacking Saudi Arabia means getting a war in the Caucasus. States with shale help)).
      1. +5
        18 March 2020 19: 24
        Quote: Krasnodar
        Well, yes, attacking Saudi Arabia means getting a war in the Caucasus.

        Do not fantasize so primitively - the war in the Caucasus was going on even when Yeltsin passionately kissed Clinton, and we were the best "friends" of the West. So we need to immediately, with the help of Iran, activate the actions of the Houthis, and this will be a very correct decision for the oil price to rise. And we will not help the States if we create problems for the Saudis - they already have enough problems of their own, so the Democrats will be happy to bring down Trump, organizing his persecution for failing with oil.
        1. +11
          18 March 2020 19: 30
          1) And what about the States? Russia alone cannot attack the country in whose territory Mecca and Medina are located.
          2) That's right - by the hands of Iran, but not by ourselves!
          3) Shales to Trump and the Democrats are mediocre - shale oil production is 0,5% of US GDP. Rise as a result of the Iranian attack by the Saudis - good. Do not rise - figs with her. Once again - to help the American shale, creating problems for yourself - is impossible.
          1. +2
            18 March 2020 19: 40
            Quote: Krasnodar
            1) And what about the States? Russia alone cannot attack the country in whose territory Mecca and Medina are located.

            The Hussites can do this by organizing an attack on the Saudi oil refineries - this has already happened recently.
            Quote: Krasnodar
            That's right - by the hands of Iran, but not by ourselves!

            And I didn’t offer another one, especially since low prices are also unprofitable for Iran.
            Quote: Krasnodar
            Shales to Trump and the Democrats are mediocre - shale oil production is 0,5% of US GDP.

            They also have one, because the USA itself wants to become the largest exporter of oil - times have changed, and they keep their noses in the wind.
            1. +2
              18 March 2020 19: 48
              I agree with the first and second, about the American shale - it is more profitable for them to attack Iran themselves, provoking the Persians to strike at Saudi Arabia. The question is, what is the weight of the shales in the States themselves?
  3. The comment was deleted.
  4. +10
    18 March 2020 15: 14
    The current oil crisis repeats the situation of 1985-1986. when the USA and Saudi Arabia played against the USSR.

    everything new is well forgotten old.
    1. +6
      21 March 2020 19: 27
      Quote: Gene84
      everything new is well forgotten old

      You can also do this: "Everything old is reflected and applied in everything new" laughing
  5. +15
    18 March 2020 15: 15
    They did not expect the sheikhs to chop the branch on which they themselves were sitting. After all, the raw material war painfully hit the oil monarchies.

    I wonder if I missed the collapse of Saudi Arabia alone?
  6. +8
    18 March 2020 15: 16
    The fall in oil is an extremely ill-conceived decision by the Russian leadership.
    Adopted at a meeting with Putin in Vnukovo-2 on the eve of the OPEC + meeting.
    Novak only broadcast the decision.

    The result of the incompetent actions of the leadership of the Russian Federation - instead of a 2% reduction in production - minus 30% in the price of oil, on which the Russian budget depends on 60%.
    (The US budget is only 1% dependent on oil, with shale oil barely half of 1%)

    OPEC's inability to agree can be called a “massive political failure”, Bloomberg notes
    1. +5
      18 March 2020 15: 30
      Quote: Dmitry Vladimirovich
      The result of the incompetent actions of the leadership of the Russian Federation - instead of a 2% reduction in production - minus 30% in the price of oil, on which the Russian budget depends on 60%.

      This is the most deafening, but not the first, recent failure of Sechin. Before that, I recall, there was Iraqi Kurdistan, with Kirkuk, which Iraq took control of, and of Vnesheuel with American sanctions. On the other hand, when a philologist leads a major oil company, what can be expected.
      1. +12
        18 March 2020 15: 36
        Quote: Stirbjorn
        recent failure Sechin

        I believe that such a decision is not of Sechin’s rank. He made a decision!
        By the way, it turns out that Rosneft is in great debt to China, the latter wanted to buy shares of Rosneft, but for some reason changed its mind a couple of days ago laughing
        China solved its problem with the price of oil due to the fall of the Russian ruble. What you won’t do for your partner request
        1. +2
          18 March 2020 15: 52
          Quote: Silvestr
          I believe that such a decision is not of Sechin’s rank. He made a decision!


          But Putin organized the meeting and listened to several parties and made an extremely erroneous decision - very similar to Sechin's lobbying.
          Bloomberg learned the content of Putin’s conversation with oil workers before breaking deal with OPEC


          The meeting took place on March 1 at the terminal of Vnukovo-2 airport before the start of Putin’s working trip to Pskov. As the Kremlin press service reported, it discussed the most important international problems, such as the spread of coronavirus, the situation in the world economy and the oil market. Among them were the head of Rosneft Igor Sechin, the general director of Gazprom Neft Alexander Dyukov, the general director of Surgutneftegaz Vladimir Bogdanov, the first executive vice president of Lukoil Ravil Maganov and the minister of energy Alexander Novak. Most of the meeting was closed. The Kremlin’s website provides only Putin’s introduction, which says that he wants to consult and listen to business opinions “on how we need to identify further steps to balance the global hydrocarbon market.”


          That is, at the meeting there were normal oil companies that operate on profits and which are extremely unprofitable for falling oil prices.

          And after this extremely unsuccessful decision, only Rosneft made excuses - which suggests that it was Sechin's lobbying efforts that led to the collapse of the OPEC + agreement and only thanks to him the Central Bank is selling every day at $ 3.7 billion to keep the ruble from falling.

          And there is hardly enough foreign exchange reserves for half a year, with such daily sales - an alternative - only the devaluation of the ruble.
          1. +2
            18 March 2020 16: 15
            Quote: Dmitry Vladimirovich
            But Putin organized the meeting and listened to several parties and made an extremely erroneous decision - very similar to Sechin's lobbying.

            It’s very similar .. recently, before the ruble fell, the first showed how Sechin was a nightingale before Putin, about how Rosneft is the world's number one in terms of profitability, production and so on, and Putin means nodded, so approvingly, although it’s obvious that it’s a blizzard the first in terms of profitability in our conditions and with our technologies
          2. +4
            19 March 2020 03: 57
            probably for the same reason, even the last fools thought that the more they decrease the custody of production, the more so the countries that are not members of it produce more. you try to understand that in fact world production was only growing and all our companies stupidly lost markets in the long run. First of all, it is about transforming the United States from a net importer into a net exporter of oil and petroleum products. Formally, this happened last September, when US exports exceeded imports for the first time in more than 45 years of statistical observations from the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA). Having reached 89 bps in September, by December, net exports (the difference between exports and imports) of oil and petroleum products increased to 000 bps, while a decade earlier, in December 487, net imports (imports minus exports ) amounted to 000 million bps. This large-scale shift is largely due to the lifting in December 2009 of the embargo on US oil exports (established in the distant 8,5), which led to a rapid increase in export deliveries: in December, according to EIA, their volume reached 2015 million b / s, which is only one and a half times lower than last year’s daily average oil export from Russia (1975 million b / s, according to the data of the Central Dispatch Department of the Fuel and Energy Complex), although back in 3,7 this difference was more than four times (5,3 million b / s versus 2017 million b / s). Sit here with a smart look every nonsense post. They have already overtaken us. and we all reduced production and slowed down projects. just this deal is a scam. they stupidly squeezed us out of the markets under a beautiful wrapper, and we were waiting for something.
            1. -1
              19 March 2020 09: 41
              Quote: carstorm 11
              that in fact, world production was only growing and all our companies stupidly lost markets in the long run.


              Yes, everyone understands perfectly well that OPEC + is a certain control over production and the remaining "wild" ones, including the American "shale producers," pressed OPEC + on the markets.

              But - for the United States, the sale of 5 million barrels and the import of 6,5 million barrels per day is only 1,5 million barrels of surplus in domestic consumption - which is exported.
              Moreover, of these 5 million barrels of daily imports - part of the Russian supply.
              The Saudis proposed to reduce production, and the share of Russia's reduction would be 2-3% (taking into account how neopek would agree with other countries).

              Now oil has collapsed from $ 46 per barrel to $ 26 - a 40% drop.
              Formulas for calculating the price of gas are also tied to oil prices - so this decline will pull the fall in gas prices.

              And as I already wrote, the oil sector in the United States accounts for less than 1% of GDP, the Russian - 60%.

              Having “shot” the US shale producers, the Russian leadership shot itself in the foot - a minimum oil price of $ 42,6 per barrel was included in the budget.
              The United States will not feel the collapse of shale oil in general, the Russian Federation will not be able to increase production by more than 2-3%, which does not compensate for the drop in oil prices by 30-40%.

              Frankly - in the world they laugh at this decision.

              Effects?
              The ruble is weakening, the population is getting poorer - the price of fuel is growing, the Russian economy is withering away, because the population cannot afford to buy more.

              For the United States, falling oil prices — well in the long run — reduce the price of fuel, lower transport costs in the price of goods, lower prices of goods — that is, the US economy will accelerate.

              And who in the end got better?
              Well, definitely not to Russian citizens.
              1. -3
                19 March 2020 10: 20
                Quote: Dmitry Vladimirovich
                And as I already wrote, the oil sector in the United States accounts for less than 1% of GDP, the Russian - 60%.

                Having “shot” the US shale producers, the Russian leadership shot itself in the foot - a minimum oil price of $ 42,6 per barrel was included in the budget.
                The United States will not feel the collapse of shale oil in general, the Russian Federation will not be able to increase production by more than 2-3%, which does not compensate for the drop in oil prices by 30-40%.

                Frankly - in the world they laugh at this decision.

                Effects?
                The ruble is weakening, the population is getting poorer - the price of fuel is growing, the Russian economy is withering away, because the population cannot afford to buy more.

                For the United States, falling oil prices — well in the long run — reduce the price of fuel, lower transport costs in the price of goods, lower prices of goods — that is, the US economy will accelerate.

                And who in the end got better?
                Well, definitely not to Russian citizens.

                You all answered correctly, comrade wise guy, a fighter for the oil market - there’s nothing to add. It's just amazing what kind of a mess people have in their head, under the influence of the TV.
              2. -3
                19 March 2020 10: 59
                Quote: Dmitry Vladimirovich
                Frankly - in the world they laugh at this decision.

                Obama recently laughed too, calling us a regional power and a gas station, and now, just a way out of negotiations, has put the whole world on the brink of economic collapse. So we don’t need to pretend that the whole world is laughing at us - the whole world began to change diapers at first because of the coronavirus, and now also from our step in order to destroy shale mining in the USA.
                Listen more to the tales of Western propaganda - according to their idea, we no longer exist as a state influencing world events. And suddenly such a bummer - so they got enraged, and so much so that Germany already requires the immediate lifting of sanctions against Russia.
                Quote: Dmitry Vladimirovich
                For the US, falling oil prices are good in the long run

                And why didn’t they do this before when they canned their oil fields and bought oil from other countries, including Venezuela?
                Quote: Dmitry Vladimirovich
                that is, the US economy will accelerate.

                Etk for which year - give your forecast, so that later you will be reminded of it.
                Quote: Dmitry Vladimirovich
                And who in the end got better?
                Well, definitely not to Russian citizens.

                But we will summarize the result in 10-12 months, then I think the picture will mostly clear up. All the current dancing around trading exchange prices resembles a temporary change in "white noise", as they say in radio engineering.
            2. 0
              21 March 2020 19: 21
              Well, let's look at practice - have you increased your production greatly?
          3. -1
            19 March 2020 12: 48
            How many specialized departments for managing the state and state corporations do VO have? For production cuts, you stubbornly ignore the fact that the United States was not involved in the cut. The USA is in the top of the world's oil production. That is, everyone is cutting production, while the United States is increasing. You stubbornly keep silent about it. You got it already with shouts of "Putin's failures" in every article. Are you such an analyst? Why then are you only analyzing the Western press, which lobbies only Western interests? And oil dropped in price even before the deal was broken. And all you have is "Putin is to blame." So close to mental disorders.
        2. +1
          19 March 2020 03: 49
          this is prepayment money that hangs in debt until deliveries are made. do not read all kinds of zen. for such topics there are a bunch of special publications in which normal pros write. not doctors talking about oil production. as for the purchase of their shares, they wanted to buy them from the Qatari people. and this is purely their personal troubles why they do not grow together or vice versa. as for decided, I’ll repeat about prepaid money.
      2. +1
        19 March 2020 09: 32
        You would still remember a journalist .... The main thing is that? The main thing is loyalty, tenacity and devotion .... And professionalism - who needs it ???
    2. -7
      18 March 2020 15: 42
      expect oil to win back by the end of the year
      1. +7
        18 March 2020 16: 14
        Quote: Nastia Makarova
        expect oil to win back by the end of the year

        Is it after the 14th year that the ruble returned to its former corridor:
        1 $ = 30 rubles?
        1. -5
          19 March 2020 06: 46
          at 14 he was rising not only due to oil
        2. -3
          19 March 2020 11: 07
          Quote: Silvestr
          Is it after the 14th year that the ruble returned to its former corridor:
          1 $ = 30 rubles?

          Well, it's not for you to whistle, Crimean - you'd better tell how you have arranged a paradise life at the expense of the rest of Russia, and you still whine that everything is not enough for you. Because of you, the ruble had to devalue, so before reminding about its rate, first return what Russia has invested in you. And then even for the construction of the bridge, hard workers had to be imported from all over the country, and local personnel only watched how it was being built - for some reason you quickly "forgot" this truth.
      2. Alf
        -1
        18 March 2020 21: 40
        Quote: Nastia Makarova
        expect oil to win back by the end of the year

        Which year ?
  7. +5
    18 March 2020 15: 23
    Thus, Washington forced the Saudis to act contrary to national interests.

    And who made Russia act in the person of Novak contrary to national interests? Look, maybe it will become clear to you whose interests the Russian government is protecting.

    Was it a pity to cut production by 600 barrels? Didn’t want to hit the pockets of oil oligarchs? Well, this is predictable. Hit the pockets of the population and the NWF ...
    hi
    1. +6
      18 March 2020 16: 32
      nothing surprising ... all the attempts of the Kremlin and Ozerkovskie to "bend" someone in the world end, as always ... even more bending over their own population and tearing up the "money-boxes of the motherland" in friendly pockets ...
    2. -3
      18 March 2020 19: 30
      Quote: ROSS 42
      Was it a pity to cut production by 600 barrels?

      In that case, we would help support the development of shale oil in the United States. If you carefully assessed all our previous agreements, then you would have understood that it was beneficial for us to lower the price of oil in order to squeeze the US out of the market in the long run. And I think that now the time has come for radical action - it’s time to strike at our competitor so that he feels the same as we did in our time from the fall in oil prices.
      1. Alf
        +1
        18 March 2020 21: 42
        Quote: ccsr
        now the time has come for radical action - it’s time to strike at our competitor,

        I don’t know the competitor, but my own got it in full.
        "This is not a retreat, this is an offensive towards the rear."
      2. -1
        20 March 2020 03: 45
        But quite a few years ago .. Utrioganda with hoo-Utriots flooded with all the resources that shale gas-oil is an American scam and they say they like to invent an empty bubble like about the Moon. And now, because of these shales, the whole country has to tighten the straps. They were not mythical at all.
        1. -2
          20 March 2020 11: 33
          Quote: Sardanapalus
          But quite a few years ago .. Utrioganda with hoo-Utriots flooded with all the resources that shale gas-oil is an American scam and an empty bubble

          And now we’ll see how the producers of shale oil survive, if the price of oil is set at a price of about $ 40, it is not yet evening.
          Quote: Sardanapalus
          And now, because of these shales, the whole country has to tighten the straps.

          It’s not a matter of shale, but the fact that a crisis has long since matured, and excess oil production has accumulated - that’s a collapse, and this is a common occurrence.
          You specifically in what tightened your belt - for example, I do not yet see the need to do this.
    3. 0
      19 March 2020 07: 52
      I understand that the math is not entirely yours but I’ll ask. But how does our reduction go so far as we were cutting the States, for example, in one year we were ahead of exports? nothing confuses you in this scheme? we are reducing production and all who are not in its custody increase it? if somewhere decreases then somewhere is added and someone stupidly fills these volumes with his own? explain how it ends or guess yourself ah?
  8. +6
    18 March 2020 15: 28
    the second (or third) year of the great breakthrough promises to be especially bright, and this radiance is not even nonsense with a vote, you can drape ...
  9. +5
    18 March 2020 15: 44
    Royal reception
    In 2017, the Kremlin hosted the King of Saudi Arabia, Salman Ben Abdel Aziz Al Saud. Negotiations with the keeper of two shrines (the mosque of al-Haram in Mecca and the mosque of the Prophet in Medina) were to dot i in matters related to the oil market and military-technical cooperation.
    These are the partners laughing
    1. -2
      18 March 2020 19: 34
      Quote: Silvestr
      Royal reception
      In 2017, the Kremlin hosted the King of Saudi Arabia, Salman Ben Abdel Aziz Al Saud. Negotiations with the keeper of two shrines (the mosque of al-Haram in Mecca and the mosque of the Prophet in Medina) were to dot i in matters related to the oil market and military-technical cooperation.
      These are the partners

      You simply naively evaluate such negotiations, because the Saudis are generally non-negotiable in the long run and throw any partners. I don’t think that our Foreign Ministry didn’t know about it, they just arranged a show for these children in the desert, and they are glad. The usual trick, which was still used by experienced rulers under Tsar Gorokh, was for the natives to imagine that they mean something to those who decide the fate of the world.
      1. +3
        18 March 2020 20: 43
        Quote: ccsr
        You simply naively evaluate such negotiations, because the Saudis are generally non-negotiable in the long run and throw any partners.

        Well, actually, Russia came out of custody +
        Quote: ccsr
        I don’t think that our Foreign Ministry didn’t know about it, they just arranged a show for these desert children

        Well, probably more correctly - the children of the desert tilted the God-bearers
        Quote: ccsr
        The usual trick, which was still used by experienced rulers under Tsar Gorokh, was for the natives to imagine that they mean something to those who decide the fate of the world.

        these natives are ahead of the subjects of the king / pea in living standards.
        1. Alf
          +2
          18 March 2020 21: 44
          Quote: atalef
          these natives are ahead of the subjects of the king / pea in living standards.

        2. -2
          19 March 2020 10: 43
          Quote: atalef
          Well, actually, Russia came out of custody +

          Russia did not get out of the negotiations, but refused to support the proposals of the Saudis, which is why they have reached an impasse - as they say in Odessa, these are two big differences. But do not sit there until the second coming, so our delegation left the meeting.
          Quote: atalef
          Well, probably more correctly - the children of the desert tilted the God-bearers

          The issue is debatable - let's get back to it in December, and then it will be clear who and whom has bent.
          Quote: atalef
          these natives are ahead of the subjects of the king / pea in living standards.

          All the difference is that we can destroy the United States, and they can only lick the American ass. And we know our role in this world - it suits us.
  10. +11
    18 March 2020 15: 46
    How much can you post these tales about the conspiracy against the USSR!
    The price of oil has fallen due to the Saudi withdrawing from the oil embargo against Western countries that supported Israel. And they refused the embargo in view of the loss of markets after the start of oil production in the North Sea and Eastern Siberia. But even then, the Saudis tried to restrain the fall by cutting their production from 10,27 million barrels. per day in 1980, up to 2,5 million barrels. per day in 1985. But other OPEC members did not support them!
    1. 0
      19 March 2020 06: 33
      Of course, it was not the low oil price that destroyed the USSR. It was destroyed by a very specific person - EBN. Gorby did not want the collapse of the USSR. Why would he want when he is the president himself? But Gorby did not retain power. Allowed weakness and did not shoot, did not plant all the opposition. And Yeltsin did not take his place, but instead tore Russia away from the USSR, thereby pulling the "union-forming" republic out of the USSR. But VVP or Luka, for example, did not make mistakes Gorby. There is no opposition. Everything is cleaned and reset. Stability, however, is ensured. laughing
      1. -1
        19 March 2020 09: 37
        Listen, it’s been enough years for the emotional tension to be thrust somewhere. When you hit the finger with a hammer, emotions, the stump is clear, they rule wink But after a couple of days you can already calm down.
        All these quite understandable attempts to hang everything on one (who he is, this enemy - does not play a role, even though the reptilians)))) are quite understandable to themselves, only they have nothing to do with real life. The union died from a heap of reasons, and the most numerous - the "new historical community - the Soviet people" Most of this took part in their inaction, although how to say)))) Everything else is a consequence of it, albeit very disgusting)))) An attempt to hang everything that on Marked, that on the animator he says that in the view of the person who hangs up - the people are just a herd of rams marching there, where the shepherd with the shepherd dogs drives them. Do you really think so?
        1. 0
          19 March 2020 21: 01
          Quote: frog
          An attempt to hang everything on the Labeled one, which on the animator suggests that, in the view of the hanging man, the people are just a herd of sheep walking there, where the shepherd with the shepherds drives them. Do you really think so?


          Yes, that's exactly what I think. Under an authoritarian regime, the people can “decide” something only when this power has weakened for some reason. This weakness can arise only within the government itself, in its elites. As an example - the same EBN against Gorby. All popular uprisings at all times were suppressed by a strong government. Spartak, Razin, Pugachev. With a strong government, the people are silent, and who is not - cleaned up softly or harshly.
  11. -4
    18 March 2020 16: 15
    The US protectorate over Saudi Arabia was established at the request of the latter after the meeting of King Ibn Saud with President Roosevelt in February 1945 aboard the American cruiser Quincy (as opposed to Britain and the USSR). The Americans pledged to protect the KSA from external aggression, the Saudis gave their economy to the Americans.

    Immediately after this, mooring facilities began to be built in the ports of Saudi Arabia for basing the American Navy. In 1946, the largest American air base was commissioned in Saudi Arabia, the training of the Saudi military and the supply of weapons were monopolized by the United States.

    In 1952, the Money Management Agency (an analogue of the central bank) was created as part of the KSA government, which was headed by an American citizen, American companies settled in the oil and gas industry. In 1974, the United States entered into an agreement with Saudi Arabia, under which the States pledged to buy oil from the Saudis, and the kingdom in return invested in the US public debt.

    The cooling of relations between KSA and the USA came about because of the beginning of large-scale production of shale hydrocarbons in the USA in the first half of the 2010s, after which the Americans violated their obligations regarding the purchase of Saudi oil.
    1. 0
      19 March 2020 09: 44
      So, like the FDR still promised, like, in the kit, and that the state of the Jews would not be created with the support of the United States (or somehow, I do not know the exact wording)))). True, he soon somehow very sloppy died .....
  12. +5
    18 March 2020 16: 28
    Oil falls to 27 dollars per barrel Brent. The fall is approaching 50% since Putin ruined the OPEC + deal ($ 42,6 was budgeted).

    The Central Bank is selling $ 3,6-3,7 billion daily to curb the devaluation of the ruble - otherwise it would be $ 100 per dollar or worse.

    The question is how long the country's mediocre leadership will refrain from devaluing the ruble when it feels that the bins accumulated over 2 years of the OPEC + deal have been wasted on compensating for the ill-considered decisions of the "infallible".
    1. 0
      18 March 2020 16: 38
      Quote: Dmitry Vladimirovich
      The question is how long the country's mediocre leadership will refrain from devaluing the ruble when it feels that the bins accumulated over 2 years of the OPEC + deal have been wasted on compensating for the ill-considered decisions of the "infallible".

      I would put the question differently. How many more "breakthroughs" are needed in the economy, so that even the very last "zaputintsy" would realize that the authorities are often without talent and enemies of their own people?
      1. +2
        19 March 2020 09: 46
        Quote: Honest Citizen
        that power is very often mediocrity and enemies of their own people


        Yes, they are not enemies - they stupidly use the people to satisfy their ambitions.
        Games of "good Putin" and worthless boyars are a common fairy tale of the population.

        As a friend from abroad wrote, as in the Middle Ages - boyars glorifying Tsar Vladimir.
  13. +1
    18 March 2020 16: 31
    The economy of the USSR was crippled by the arms race, and then low oil prices.
    The party elite from senility did not understand that the arms race could not be pulled. It was necessary to focus on quality. Invest in weapons based on new physical principles, rather than riveting so many nuclear warheads that it was possible to destroy our planet several times. And then we would create lasers, hypersound, and petrel. Moreover, financial costs would be many times less.

    And now, multi-path with coronavirus is possible to slow down the global economy and reduce oil demand.
    Again, at first glance, a blow to China, but in fact to Russia.
    1. -1
      19 March 2020 13: 04
      Yes, there is not so much nuclear warheads as a huge amount of conventional weapons played a role. Well, why did you have to have a 5 millionth army?
  14. for
    +2
    18 March 2020 16: 42
    The easiest external enemies to find.
    1. -1
      18 March 2020 17: 26
      ,, The easiest thing to find external enemies. ,,

      But they are not there ?!
  15. VLR
    0
    18 March 2020 17: 01
    In the Kremlin, of course, panic, and therefore it was decided to transfer the arrows to coronavirus. Passions are escalating, the population is zombified with stories about the upcoming apocalypse - because fear for one's health and the health of loved ones dulls the reaction to the devaluation of the ruble, which is leaving at the peak. Against the background of an absolutely stable epidemic situation and a sharp decrease in the incidence of seasonal respiratory viral diseases (the situation is improving before our eyes), monstrous and inadequate decisions are made. They even hit him in the field of education, sending children (for whom the coronavirus is not dangerous) for the holidays - this is very backfire, especially to current graduates. They aggravate the situation, not paying attention to the fact that at the same time a number of regularly operating and stable industries are being destroyed and ruined - air transportation, tourism, the services and entertainment sectors, catering and the hotel business, at the risk of causing massive bankruptcies, as a result of which tens of thousands of people will lose their jobs - but even this seems to the Russian authorities a lesser evil in comparison with the social explosion and the requirements to personally answer for the failures of economic policy.
    1. -1
      18 March 2020 18: 05
      Hysteria and panic not only in Russia, but also in the world. And the measures are inadequate to the threat. It seems that the manufacturers of the virus and the owners of the media are the same people. I would not be surprised if pressure is exerted on our authorities from outside.
      1. Alf
        0
        18 March 2020 21: 46
        Quote: Grizzly Bear
        I would not be surprised if pressure is exerted on our authorities from outside.

        Right. Holding them by me ... wallet.
        1. -2
          18 March 2020 21: 59
          ,,Right. Holding them by me ... wallet. ,,

          Amendments to the constitution must therefore be adopted.
          1. Alf
            +1
            18 March 2020 22: 03
            Quote: Grizzly Bear
            Amendments to the constitution must therefore be adopted.

            And what is so new about them that was not previously written in the Constitution?
            1. -1
              18 March 2020 22: 10
              Accounts abroad prohibit having the powers that be.
              1. Alf
                +2
                18 March 2020 22: 59
                Quote: Grizzly Bear
                Accounts abroad prohibit having the powers that be.

                It was forbidden before.
                1. -1
                  19 March 2020 06: 30
                  Any laws can be changed quite quickly and quietly. You can’t change the constitution secretly.
                  1. Alf
                    +3
                    19 March 2020 19: 23
                    Quote: Grizzly Bear
                    Any laws can be changed quite quickly and quietly. You can’t change the constitution secretly.

                    Why change the Constitution if there are laws that exist even without amendment? Or do you think that those laws that are and are not enforced in the amended Constitution will be enforced?
        2. Alf
          0
          18 March 2020 22: 11
          Quote: Alf
          Quote: Grizzly Bear
          I would not be surprised if pressure is exerted on our authorities from outside.

          Right. Holding them by me ... wallet.

          Judging by the mass minuses that appeared, a white dog ran in.
  16. +3
    18 March 2020 17: 10
    Sanctions recreated agricultural and food production in Russia.
    Yes, and heavy industry is developing.
    Many more can be listed.
    Shipbuilding, aircraft construction, production, infrastructure and logistics of liquefied natural gas.
    And much more.
    Now we have simultaneously received two pandemics.
    One medical, another oil.
    Let us hope that vaccines will be developed for one and the other disaster.
    Why be surprised.
    Everything is as usual.
    Pecking roasted cock.
    Now they will harness faster.
    Since there is no other choice.
    1. -2
      18 March 2020 21: 04
      I even give you a plus for such optimism)
      1. +2
        18 March 2020 21: 11
        We knew worse times.
        The nineties will never forget, especially the beginning.
        Now and now there is no hopelessness
    2. Alf
      +1
      18 March 2020 21: 48
      Quote: Livonetc
      Let us hope that vaccines will be developed for one and the other disaster.

      And why should these vaccinations be developed if there has long been a universal antidote-cardinal change in the political model of the state structure.
  17. +2
    18 March 2020 17: 39
    yeah) let's pity the Saudis) they are rotting, they have dealt a powerful blow to all the world "gas stations": Iraq, Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Algeria, Mexico, you can add the Russian Federation and Venezuela
    1. +1
      18 March 2020 19: 37
      I’ll continue the list: Canada, Norway, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan (exporting gas, the price of which is tied to oil).
      1. -1
        18 March 2020 21: 02
        Canadians and Norwegians live well))) especially Norway) the standard of living in Canada and Turkmenistan is still different)
  18. +5
    18 March 2020 17: 51
    How it really was. And as it is.
    In general, until recently, everyone was waiting for the US war with Iran, the so-called "Suleymani factor." Oil, as you remember, rose, right up to $ 60. But nothing happened! And everyone saw that the war game was being postponed.
    And what happened in the USA? In Russia (as always) no one was interested (supposedly, this is not a royal matter). But in vain! The situation in the United States should be considered under a magnifying glass to the whole world, if it does not want to get into the hole. Which, incidentally, are smart and do.
    But a simple and, it must be admitted, more than once thing happened: shale workers, seeing that there would be no war, and the price - so far - high, insured the position (i.e. the price). Who does not know what it is - the purchase of derivatives (futures, options, etc.) for a fall in prices. In “human language”, this means that if you sell oil, even when it falls to “below-low,” you will still receive your $ 60, the bank will pay the difference with the real price.
    So shale oil producers are not afraid of the immediate consequences of the fall. And to support investment banks that bought insurance, the Fed (Federal Reserve System) pumps in $ 0,4 trillion. short-term loans. This is a cool, very cool solution! instead of creating “financial bubbles,” money will lead - and are already leading - to lower interest rates on loans and, consequently, to reduce the cost of $.
    The latter is just wonderful for the economy, because it increases competitiveness.
    What is the primary result?
    Defending the shale industry, America, of course, was preoccupied with a general decline in the cost of oil, because it is necessary for economic growth. How? It is very simple, helping the Saudis increase their exports. I must say that here, apparently, a certain "multi-pathway" is visible.
    It must be remembered that after the well-known events (the bombing of oil refineries), the Saudis “voluntarily” reduced their production (there was no way to keep the “light” oil after the destruction of the capacities in the required volumes). But they have a lot of “dirty” (sulfur-containing) oil. And what did they do?
    Right! They offered it to Europe! They buy Russian "Urals" of about the same quality. But here, you see, there is a contradiction with the terms of the OPEC + deal to limit the volumes mined (primarily with the Russian Federation).
    How to torpedo it so that Russia itself leaves it?
    3 weeks ago, the United States imposed sanctions against the trading company Rosneft. That, as you know, sells Venezuelan oil. And to whom did she sell it? India.
    1. +9
      18 March 2020 17: 51
      And what happened?
      Payments stopped, but there is a contract, but no oil. That is, somewhere urgently need to take this same oil. Where? Only mine. Those. it is necessary to increase the volumes of our own production. But the Saudis demand a decrease in volumes (OPEC +)!
      What happens next? And everything is simple: Russia refuses, the Saudis bring down the market .......
      Yes, and they introduce monstrous discounts for buyers.
      Have you thought in Russia about such a development of events or not? It seems that only Siluanov, who was hated by readers, who, under the fierce fire of criticism, was saving and saving ... saving and saving ...
      Still very briefly about the ruble course:
      Currency reserves in Russia are large. But it must be understood that the purchasing power of the population - in reality - depends on the $ rate, as a huge number of goods, components for production and so on. bought for currency. And here it comes to the time that Russia needs to “hold out”: the longer, the higher the ruble / dollar exchange rate. After all, in order to keep the ruble, it is necessary to sell dollar reserves. Siluanov himself said that 68 rubles - 2 years, 75 - 3. True, someone here blurted out that, they say, enough for 10 years!
      Well, get ready: 100 rubles for 1.
      Here I read about the fact that, say, the Saudis as long as we do not hold out ... As we said in our distant youth, "three ha ha!"
      The “small” Saudi Arabia has some $ 500 billion in financial reserves, and Saudi Aramco’s capitalization surpasses $ 2 trillion. - so much you can "borrow" under it. They have an excellent credit rating, they will be given as much money as they need.
      And Russia-shish.
      "What will calm my heart?"
      For a number of countries and industries there will be something like a catastrophe: Omani, bituminous Canadian sands, and small African miners can practically fly out of the market. Of course, he will save Slantsevikov, Donald Trump, especially since the major players in the United States are waiting for this - they won’t wait when the small-medium-sized companies can be bought, enlarged, cheaply invested in new technologies and made the “shale” really competitive in price with ordinary prey. It remains to wait 5-7 years, no more.
      True, Iran is sorry: they pushed under $ 90 per barrel ...
      Russia is also a pity: Sechin promises to increase oil production "as much" by 250 - 300 thousand barrels! Well done what ... Saudis "without tension" of 2,5 million ... For Russia today, the figure called by Sechin is generally a speculative limit, there are no capacities, there is no technology, there is no supply of critical equipment.
      By the way, the Americans will not completely drown Rosneft together with Russia - no one needs it. Live and let live. If they wanted to, they would impose an embargo on such a not very clear thing to the "masses" as oil service - a "stop" to the supply of bursazazki ... and that’s all.
      Here many are interested in how “we will live”. There is such a thing - the deflator is called. This is such a calculation method based on the consideration of various prices in order to understand what is the situation in the economy as a whole. So, if you use this same deflator, then recalculating the current $ 35-40 per barrel will just give approximately $ 20, so the 95th, 98th.
      Well, this is how Russia will live if something else does not happen. Bad.
      Here's an interesting question: was it possible to avoid butting with the Saudis? Years by 2, by 3, not more - during this time, shale workers would pay off loans for new equipment and begin to introduce new ones that reduce the cost of mining technology. This, by the way, will happen anyway, but there is a little time now.
      True, there is not enough money.
      In general, it is extremely interesting to observe the “troubles” of the oil and gas power with a country in which the promotion of private initiative, the creation of new technologies, the ability to introduce innovations and technological superiority are elevated to the rank of national values.
      1. -10
        18 March 2020 18: 07
        And why are you so smart on the site, and not in the government or top company management?
        1. +8
          18 March 2020 18: 10
          This is not the mind, it is just "some" knowledge leading to "much trouble"
          I wanted to clarify something for you, as if I thought of nothing as self-conscious as I could, but you, fool, rightly replaced my earth worm in my place.
          Thank you
        2. +8
          18 March 2020 18: 12
          And the minus is where! Minus! I feel how your hand itches, for it is said in the scripture: "itching - scratching!"
          1. -1
            18 March 2020 18: 27
            And the point is to put a minus? I put the minus exclusively on nonsense, which is clear to the goat, but for what? For your knowledge? Well, this is unreasonable
            1. +4
              18 March 2020 18: 28
              I wanted you to smile
              1. +1
                18 March 2020 18: 30
                Smiled, I generally try to smile more often
      2. +3
        18 March 2020 18: 17
        It’s a pity that you cannot subscribe to VO
      3. -1
        18 March 2020 18: 18
        But the Saudis, why bump the market? Dozens of other countries will suffer along with Russia. But the whole world still can’t provide them with oil. Even with the Americans. Let them agree with them on reducing production to profitable.
        1. +1
          18 March 2020 18: 22
          Did I understand correctly that this is a question for me?
          1. 0
            18 March 2020 18: 27
            Yes sir. Please clarify the positions of all players in the oil market.
            1. +8
              18 March 2020 18: 53
              Approx.
              The so-called "oil market players" want, in fact, only one thing: a stable price level for as long as possible (due to huge basic investments in the industry) - first, and a smooth rise in oil prices at least without lagging behind inflationary processes - the second ...
              Neither one nor the other in life has been observed lately. There are many reasons - a confrontation with Iran you know, someone, a number of minor conflicts in North Africa (it seems that there isn’t much oil coming from there, but if you add up the falling volumes, then it’s not so little!), And most importantly, the games speculators who are able to raise a panic first and then bring down prices.
              An example of this is insurance of American shale: who, in your opinion, was the SECOND counterparty of this action?
              As the saying goes, “watch your hands”: the second participant in this charitable cause was ... oil speculators (!!), who were 100 - no, 150% sure that there will be a war with Iran! Will be!! It can not be !! After all, they hit our soldiers ...
              True, as it now turns out, the "soldiers" were warned and then, when they were exhausted, they gently (so as not to hurt anyone) were smeared in revenge for the general ...
              The speculators “came in and bought” so many contracts that if the price fell, the losses would be calculated in figures comparable to the budget of the Russian Federation (!). But I must say, there was insider information that there would be no war. Apparently, everyone waited for about a week and a half, and, having analyzed the position of Mr. President, rushed to talk with "their sources" in the Pentagon. And as soon as everything became clear (insider always wins) a furious purchase of futures began.
              But the Saudis became, let’s say, a ram that they used after securing a “bright future” for themselves. And the battering ram is not in the loser: he received support in pushing Russia out of the European (and not only) market (help in breaking OPEC + as if they provided Russia with a stroke of the pen).
              The Chinese were the first to understand this and went to sign contracts for the purchase of oil in the United States.
              And the positions of the participants ... Yes, the Saudis at all, by and large, do not care. Only they can, if they want, increase production God knows to what extent.
              1. +3
                18 March 2020 19: 00
                Here the question is - the Brent futures after the attack on Suleymani shied away by 70, after answering 72 EMNIP bases, then after Trump’s speech, the pullback went down. Question - why buy up Brent, striving for 60? Play short on a situation?
                1. +4
                  18 March 2020 19: 36
                  In general, they do not buy, they want to at least move everyone everywhere
                  In this (specific) case, this is a strategy, more precisely, the beginning, apparently, of a large strategic game of replacing permanent operators in other markets. Apparently (well, I’m very sure of that) it was done exactly so that it would look like “playing short on the situation”.
                  Those. to drag "some" into an allegedly short-term battle, and then by supplying ever-increasing volumes to stifle the price downward without the possibility of a rebound.
                  If I'm right, then we should expect US assistance in "non-market pressure" on other suppliers of sulfuric oil, as they did with Venezuelan supplies to Rosneft. It seems the guys from Johns Hopkins Aramco Healthcare are already in India ...
              2. +2
                18 March 2020 19: 22
                Yes, the Saudis at all, by and large, do not care. Only they can, if they want, increase production God knows to what extent.
                --------------
                The Saudis have a large "box", but not bottomless. And their budget is set at $ 80 per barrel. It turns out, in your words, that they should cover the shortfall in income with huge volumes of production. And American oil producers do not need such "ridiculous" prices in the long run. It's easier to just roll up loot until better times. Sooner or later, prices will go up anyway. This swing goes on all the time. What do you think?
                1. +4
                  18 March 2020 19: 51
                  I have already indicated that the Saudis have huge reserves, for their scale they are simply huge. They will last 10 years if necessary. The cost of their company is also huge, so they will always find money. Also, do not forget, perhaps, that the profitability of American securities owned by the Sauds is very, very - it’s also a penny. If necessary, they will cut the budget by half, and they will offer to replace the US military expenses, which they will do with pleasure: the US will give weapons to the Saudis without any problems, the relations with “the most producing country in the world” are too important today
                  And this is not a swing - this is a fundamental struggle for future markets in the light of the future reduction in oil needs (it must be understood that if growth simply stops, then this is already a decrease). And this is also the beginning of the struggle for benevolent relations with the United States in the future: America will nevertheless achieve a reduction in the cost of shale oil. They always do.
                  1. +1
                    18 March 2020 20: 14
                    Why do they hold on for 10 years? Wouldn’t it be easier here and now with the Americans to impose sanctions against the Russian oil sector? At the same time, the price of oil would most likely jump. And another question interests me: why didn’t they do it against their worst enemy --- the USSR, and why did they start playing for a fall?
                    1. +5
                      18 March 2020 20: 36
                      The simple answer is because there are not only centripetal, but also centrifugal forces on the world market.
                      More or less correct:
                      If the United States decided to simply kill the Russian oil industry, then it would be done simply and quickly - I have already mentioned the supply of lubricants for drilling equipment, it is all American in Russia.
                      Immediately: chick and - done.
                      But the question is - why beat the same Rosneft? This is an American-British company. Who has the block packages? In the Russian Federation. And also? At the Qatar Foundation. And who is there "behind the main"? British Petroleum. There profitability ... God forbid everyone! Double digits! This is someone whose hand will rise ?!
                      But the growth, especially significant, Donald Trump will not allow! It is not a matter of shale oil - they are in the balance of the United States in general, to be honest, they are less than 1% and, when necessary, they will be given as much money as they need !.
                      You look at life correctly: the scale of the American economy is colossal.
                      The president needs, firstly, the economic growth that he promised, and the growth is constant and steady. And for this you need to have a balanced energy cost. In addition, Trump needs instant, one-time achievements, especially on the eve of the election - and here is just a drop in gas prices!
                      Regarding the "worst enemy - the USSR" - let me omit this matter ... Here, at VO, there are too many people whose jaws are shaking from the fact of its (USSR) disintegration. Then everything was completely different - everything was different, the geostrategic situation was completely different.
                      And the priorities, respectively, are different. Those who wanted, achieved much less effort and, frankly, with less risk ...
                      I do not want and, I think, do not have the right to write things that cause anger among so many and, no doubt, worthy people.
                    2. +7
                      18 March 2020 20: 45
                      Forgive me, I didn’t answer the first part: “Why would they hold out for 10 years?”
                      The fact is that RUSSIA has a difficult resource for 10 years.
                      Here we are not talking about the Saud - they are, if really so, in their own way, an instrument. I meant that the kingdom has a huge margin of safety. But it will not be possible to "negotiate" with the Americans: it is America that decides what global strategy for the oil industry - the global one - to develop and how. Something they succeed, something not very good. Without the United States and, more broadly, without the West and its technologies, the Saudis will remain camel drivers. With oil ... without oil ...
                      That is, in appearance, of course, they agree, consult, convince ... but what about
                      1. +1
                        18 March 2020 21: 05
                        Thanks for the detailed answers! But on the Internet, from liberals to patriots, they unanimously blame Putin and his regime for an unreasoned collapse in prices with a demonstrative reluctance to agree with OPEC (read with the Saudis). But what could be done in such a situation if the Americans had all the leverage?
                        -----------
                        And for this you need to have a balanced cost of energy /////
                        -----------
                        She is needed not only by them, but also by the Chinese. The main competitors of the Americans and the enemy No. 1 in the list of enemies of America according to Trump.
                      2. +5
                        18 March 2020 22: 01
                        As my acquaintance, let's say, who knows / is observing the process of making some decisions, Sechin's "brain exploded" when Salman announced the need to reduce production: there is a problem with the supply of Venezuelan raw materials, the Indians are almost threatened with penalties, production is not what cut - you need to raise. Apparently, he himself tried to talk to Salman, saying that we cannot reduce production in any way.
                        The Saudis brought down the market in response. Of course, there is an element of speculation, but judging by the speed of events, decision-making took place at very high levels - there are practically no traces of passing documents on intermediate approvals, and you can always find them with some effort, you can’t hide it .

                        Is it "the fault of Putin and his regime in the ill-conceived collapse of prices with a demonstrative unwillingness to agree .." - of course not.
                        At a minimum - a low self-qualification, a maximum - perfectly planned in the shortest possible time and the operation (s) performed as if by notes.
                        "Liberators" - for the second, "patriotists" - for the first.
                        "What could have been done in such a situation if the Americans had all the leverage?" - here "either-or":
                        or close / raise the visor and somehow rush into battle.
                        I think the result will not please
                        or to behave more modestly, quieter, to threaten less with "nuclear ash" (and it is better to keep quiet about it at all) and gradually establish normal relations as possible. Actually "defense industry" to squeeze, and all the more or less promising developments and technologies obtained in it, try to inject into commercial products with high added value, and to develop them immediately with an eye in the first place on the foreign market. True, they broke enough firewood that they can be stoked for 10-15 years, according to my estimates, until the foreign political paradigm in the USA changes once again.
                        As for the "balanced cost of energy resources," here, I ask you to pay attention to this: in each specific economic state of the system, its own criteria for balance. What is a crisis of one kind or another, with its price jumps? This is just the process of bringing the system into a balanced state, nothing more.
                        The question is that the current "rebalancing", even if it is not intentional (which I personally do not believe in), is dramatically changing the economic picture, I am afraid, but I will say, of the entire world economy.
                        There is, however, a small hope that everything can somehow "settle down" ... but weak.

                        The "balanced cost of energy resources" for the United States is not at all the same as for the Russian Federation. In the United States, there are 2 mutually exclusive factors: shale producers (and oilmen in general), who, of course, want high prices (this is understandable) and Mr Trump and the people who want the opposite (this is also understandable). At the same time, ordinary citizens working in the oil industry and companies that provide it seem to want low prices, but at the same time high earnings.
                        Here they are looking for balance. The hands of the Saudis on the one hand and the support of the shale on the other.
                        In Russia, it is somewhat different: low world prices will lead to a decrease for everyone (except Sechin).
                        As for the PRC, then, sorry, everything is more complicated. In t you wrote the word "enemy" ... For the United States, there are several gradations of external relations, in each case, the tools and methods of action are different. These are "Enemy", "Adversary", "Opponent", "Competitor", "Partner", "Ally" - there are no others, but these are clear, legally verified concepts in politics, although in conversations, of course, everything is greatly simplified.
                        The "enemy" of the United States in their history was only Hitler, and no one else was.
                        The "enemy" existed in the face of the USSR (not for long), sometimes crossing over and combining both "opponent" and even "partner".
                        China today fluctuates in the "table of ranks" from "partner" to "opponent", although over the past 10 years it has gradually slipped to the last. Trump is trying with all his might to prevent this - he is not a man of war, but of peace, he is much more comfortable in economic competition, he feels at ease here.

                        Sorry for some verbosity, but with short questions you open the doors of hell, as they say in economics
                      3. -1
                        19 March 2020 00: 09
                        Quote: A.TOR
                        For the United States, there are several gradations of external relations, in each case the tools and methods of action are different. These are "Enemy", "Adversary", "Opponent", "Competitor", "Partner", "Ally" - there are no others, but these are clear, legally verified concepts in politics, although in conversations, of course, everything is greatly simplified.
                        The "enemy" of the United States in their history was only Hitler, and no one else was.
                        The "enemy" existed in the face of the USSR (not for long), sometimes crossing over and combining both "opponent" and even "partner".

                        Oops on! And what to do with the DPRK and Vietnam? Who is this? Competitor? or opponent? And for the United States, the concepts of ENEMY and OPPONENT are unambiguous!
                      4. 0
                        19 March 2020 17: 49
                        DPRK does not understand who leads Washington in a stupor for a long time, Vietnam is a partner, and the volume of the planned interaction is impressive.
                        mr. Trump, when he came to the presidency, somewhat slowed down this matter in order to minimize problematic issues in relations with Xi Jingping. Last Vietnam and everything connected with it does not take to the spirit. There are reasons.
                      5. -1
                        19 March 2020 04: 27
                        it’s interesting to listen to you, although you can make a mistake)))) and how do you see the prospects of our national heritage pipe 2 north after construction, God forbid? in light of recent events, the Chinese abandon Rosneft's pipes and switch to American, fearing sanctions that will begin in May ... will Tram be able to bend the Germans in the same way ???
                      6. +3
                        19 March 2020 18: 01
                        [quotehot even though you can break] [/ quote]
                        If you want to talk, I ask you to exclude formulations of this kind. I don’t insist on anything - I’m just explaining some things, the understanding of which in the near future will determine the well-being of you and your loved ones.
                        The pipe is likely to be completed, the problem is not in it, but in gas prices. Usually its price is tied to the oil with a time lag of 3 to 6 months. Now there is a certain struggle for an attempt to break off or at least weaken this connection both in terms of time and in %% of the cost.
                        What happens - ??
                        In general, in the light of long-term trends, I would call this project risky.
                        As for "scaring", it is unlikely. The German economy is part of the European one, it is powered not only by the Russian pipe. In addition, gas is not oil, here everything is more complicated with delivery and storage (costs are many times higher). So far, the US does not have super attention to the European oil market - it "works" by the hands of the Saudis. What will happen next? We will see.
                      7. +1
                        19 March 2020 09: 54
                        Thank you so much for the great comments !!! Did not try (or already)))) to engage in the education of the masses ??
                      8. +2
                        19 March 2020 18: 07
                        Everything that I wrote above is an attempt to "put in order" the thoughts of those present a little. I'm not trying to teach anyone, I just tried to explain what is coming from where. I don’t want normal people to rely in their life plans on crazy ideas and political science chatter.
                        Life must be seen as it is.
                        It's desirable
                      9. 0
                        19 March 2020 11: 46
                        Quote: A.TOR
                        Here, of course, there is an element of speculation, but judging by the speed of events, decision-making took place at very high levels - there are practically no traces of passing documents on intermediate approvals, and you can always find them with some effort, you can’t hide it.

                        I can’t take your statement seriously, because it’s quite obvious that this was a "homework" that Novak demonstrated at the meeting. And I'm 95% sure that this situation was discussed even when restrictions on oil production were imposed when an agreement with OPEC was signed - it could not be otherwise, because everyone knew that these restrictions were temporary, and all options were calculated in advance, including breaking the agreement and its consequences. There is no other way at this level - too much money even for Americans is tied to this business.
                        By the way, the fact that this option was worked out in advance was confirmed by one recent fact - the sale of British gold for currency just happened on the eve of the transaction with OPEC breaking, and this is not an accident, I hope you will agree with that.
                      10. +1
                        19 March 2020 18: 11
                        Sorry: 5% of those remaining are the truth. For Mr. Novak, what happened was a shock, to say the least.
                        No one expected that the sanctions on Rosneft would hit Russia so hard on the OPEC + agreements. But now, if viewed from the outside, the Russian Federation has become a violation of the agreement.
                        Formally, the king is even right. Formally.
                      11. -2
                        19 March 2020 19: 25
                        Quote: A.TOR
                        Sorry: 5% of those remaining are the truth. For Mr. Novak, what happened was a shock, to say the least.

                        You were his referent at that meeting?
                        Quote: A.TOR
                        But now, when viewed from the side, the Russian Federation has become a violator of the agreement.

                        We don’t give a damn about who and how will look at it - you better think about the bid and its price, then you will understand that the game is going on at a large price for all world prices.
                        Quote: A.TOR
                        Formally, the king is even right. Formally.

                        Let’s leave the formality, but it’s better to return to this issue by the end of the year - then it will become clear who looked at how many moves forward.
    2. -3
      19 March 2020 11: 20
      Quote: A.TOR
      I must say that here, apparently, a certain "multi-pathway" is visible.

      I agree with this assessment. But the question arises - who dedicated you to the players ’intentions, because the link to the media, to put it mildly, does not inspire confidence. I hope you are aware of what are custom articles that constantly appear in different publications, and which come true with the opposite prediction.
      For example, there was very interesting information that for the first time in such a situation, global financial capital refused to invest surpluses in US government securities, and began to look for other sources of placement. What can you say about this and is this an alarm bell?
      1. +2
        19 March 2020 18: 30
        I don't refer to the media, most of the time I live "there", so I see what and how. By the way, he did not make any predictions. I advise "do not read Soviet newspapers in the morning." I am not making jokes, you just have to understand that the vast majority of Russian publications are not that incompetent - they interpret what is happening from the Russian point of view. Insofar as Russia, to call a spade a spade, takes part in world economic life very fragmentarily, there is a fair amount of parochialism in the analysis of the economic situation (sorry for such a comparison).
        Regarding "world finance capital" - what it is, I do not understand. American securities are extremely attractive, the country's economy is in great shape, the president is great!
        1. -1
          19 March 2020 19: 35
          Quote: A.TOR
          I advise "do not read Soviet newspapers in the morning." I am not making a mistake, you just have to understand

          Yes, I not only look through the Russian media, but sometimes I read INOSMI and the comments of some foreign experts - we have Euronews in the public domain.
          Quote: A.TOR
          Insofar as Russia, if you call a spade a spade, takes part in economic world life in a very fragmented way, there is a fair amount of small-town parity in the analysis of the economic situation (sorry for such a comparison).

          Those. you want to prove that we potentially cannot have professionals to assess the global processes in the economy - usually such small-town experts make such statements regarding Russia.
          Quote: A.TOR
          American securities are extremely attractive, the country's economy is in great shape, the president is excellent!

          Tell this to someone else more naive:
          In January 2019, the deficit peaked since 2011: the authorities spent $ 32,6 billion more than they earned. According to the forecast of the Congressional Budget Office, this fiscal year (ending in September), the deficit will exceed a trillion.
          Analysts point out that the decline in the interest of foreign creditors in the US public debt is a consequence of Trump's aggressive protectionist policies. A financing crisis is not far off, which will erupt when foreigners stop buying treasury bonds and start selling dollar assets. As a result, Washington will itself pronounce the verdict on the dollar as the world's reserve currency.

          https://ria.ru/20200221/1564982387.html
          1. +1
            19 March 2020 20: 22
            Of course, I will not argue with you. The link you indicated - "ria.ru" - makes the conversation meaningless. The same is with INOSMI - this is, excuse the rudeness, a waste of information activities.
            Nevertheless, I wish you a normal time through difficult times.
            Best regards
            Alexander T.
            1. 0
              20 March 2020 11: 27
              Quote: A.TOR
              The same thing about INOSMI - this, sorry for the rudeness, wastes of information activities.

              Those. you have to understand that only you own the whole "truth" - a familiar propaganda trick, we have already gone through this.
              Quote: A.TOR
              Nevertheless, I wish you a normal time through difficult times.

              I don’t see any difficulty yet - I didn’t notice it, even gasoline prices didn’t change. There are people who take advantage of some goods, but those who survived the nineties simply feel sorry for these poor people. Tell us in more detail what "difficulties" await us, so that we can use your advice.
              Quote: A.TOR
              The same thing about INOSMI - this, sorry for the rudeness, wastes of information activities.

              But the TV channels of the Bibisi, Deutsche Welle, the French channels in the package of all the main operators of television programs - should they not be trusted either? They sometimes such scenes show that you begin to understand why the Germans rebelled against emigrants.
              1. +1
                20 March 2020 17: 32
                I'm not proving anything to you - I don't care if you believe it or not. After reading "a lot of nonsense" I decided to shed some light on the issue. And it's not a fact that I'll be right everywhere. There is no point in expressing disagreement with my point of view, I have a small stake in the oil shale company, so I follow the events. here is my main interest.
                I won’t give you any advice, I only wish - and sincerely - that everything would be fine. Although I doubt the latter (life experience, you know).
                But where does the migrant, and even in Germany? Do not pile everything together. They talked about oil.
                In general, in Russia, people are interestingly talking about everything and nothing at the same time. Somehow I lost the habit of such communication.
                1. -1
                  20 March 2020 19: 02
                  Quote: A.TOR
                  After reading "a lot of nonsense" I decided to shed some light on the issue.

                  I immediately understood where you were going - in our oil business there is a separation of large companies according to the composition of shareholders and their views on the future, and you are a clear lobbyist of the Lukoil group, as I understand it. Or at least express their point of view.
                  Quote: A.TOR
                  But where does the migrant, and even in Germany?

                  This is about the information field we live in. You apparently still do not know that we have information from various sources.
                  Quote: A.TOR
                  Somehow I lost the habit of such communication.

                  You would still be unaccustomed to teach us from the habit - you would not have a price. I hope you tell us how the current events affected your stake - at least in terms of their price dynamics by the end of the year.
                  1. 0
                    20 March 2020 20: 26
                    I am not a lobbyist of Lukoil and I live, mainly, not in Russia
                    1. -3
                      20 March 2020 20: 36
                      Quote: A.TOR
                      I'm not a lobbyist for Lukoil

                      If not direct, then indirect.
                      Quote: A.TOR
                      and I live mainly not in Russia

                      This confirms my idea that you don’t know what’s going on here - emigrant circles and Western analysts specializing in Russia suffer from this. People like you periodically appear at various talk shows with us, and we have ideas about what they sometimes carry nonsense, not understanding the essence of our lives.
                      1. +1
                        21 March 2020 13: 33
                        HA ha = ha! Here you have killed me! Emigrant circles ... Western analysts ... Is it not funny for you yourself to speak such a condo language? In the second decade is the 21st century?
                        What is happening here, I know much better than you, because Now invited to implement a project to create production in Gatchina. (Gatchina is such a city 40 km. From Leningrad.) Now I’m looking out the window (Promyshlennaya St., St. Petersburg), and I’m thinking about what else you would like to blur out at the next talk show in order to raise Lukoil’s shares.
                        You are funny
                      2. -1
                        21 March 2020 15: 02
                        Quote: A.TOR
                        Here you have killed me! Emigrant circles ... Western analysts ... Is it not funny for you yourself to speak such a condo language?

                        I realized that you are already on the verge of death, since you are laughing hysterically - apparently the latest information about the prospect of shale oil production and the request of the US senators shocked you. As for the other, then watch our TV and there you will see James Simes and Jacob Kedmi and many others, in general, as they say, whatever you want. What do you dislike then?
                        Quote: A.TOR
                        and I’m thinking about what else would you like to throw up at the next talk show, that would raise Lukoil’s shares.

                        Try it, and we'll see what kind of "analyst" you are and whose team you work for.
                        Only you are an ordinary whistler, and this is already understood by those who know how to evaluate information from various open sources.
                        Quote: A.TOR
                        You are funny

                        So be it, but we will return to your tales by the end of the year to remind you of your forecast. Then we’ll see who they consider in the fall ...
                      3. +2
                        21 March 2020 16: 05
                        "you are an ordinary whistler" - what an interesting habit of sculpting labels and offending everyone who is missing. In Russia, more and more often any conversations end with ordinary, banal insults.
                        How do you all get so much bitterness? Is it really that complicated?
                      4. -1
                        21 March 2020 16: 32
                        Quote: A.TOR
                        "you are an ordinary whistler" - what an interesting habit of sculpting labels and offending everyone who is missing.

                        Our people are original and self-sufficient, which is why we are not used to fawning in front of various foreign pretzels and say in person what we think about them.
                        Quote: A.TOR
                        In Russia, more and more often, all conversations end with ordinary, banal insults.

                        I would say differently - unequivocal assessments of opponents and their arguments.
                        Quote: A.TOR
                        How do you all get so much bitterness? Is it really that complicated?

                        And here I’ll laugh at you - as soon as they showed you that all your predictions are worth it, you immediately began to look for reasons in your opponent’s personality, although I used only alternative assessments of the situation of other specialists. It’s not funny for yourself?
                      5. +1
                        21 March 2020 16: 37
                        You are our original
                        horror
            2. 0
              21 March 2020 12: 37
              Alexander T., thanks for the detailed comments.
      2. -1
        19 March 2020 18: 33
        I mostly live "there", so I know what and how. As for the "world financial capital", I do not know what it is. US securities are a reliable thing, perhaps the most reliable in the world, provided by all the power of the American economy, its prestige and the exclusive obligation of US financial institutions.
        1. +1
          20 March 2020 10: 20
          Good morning Alexander! I came from a day (this work). There were a couple more questions.
          You wrote that the Americans will not kill ROSNEFT, because it is an American-British company with the participation of Qataris and who are making good profits. But in the light of recent events in connection with the collapse in oil prices and the sanctions imposed by the Americans (and this is for a long time), their incomes will also fall sharply. Why did the Americans not warn their friends before their introduction so that they could dump toxic assets?
          And the second question. The Americans supply a special, exclusive lubricant for the Russian oil industry for drilling, and it is enough to stop deliveries and oil production in Russia will stop (from your words). The question is where does Iran get such lubricant, which continues to extract oil and sells it bypassing UN sanctions to China and (sort of) India.
          1. +1
            20 March 2020 17: 18
            Hello!
            Work a day - a good job, usually real, male.
            As for Rosneft: I think no one has thought about such a trifle. I meant that earlier they were not particularly touched, but when they decided to win back the value globally (after all, "their" shale producers were covered from being hit by a hedge) then Rosneft and others did not give a damn. But no one will throw off the toxic: the company supplies oil to Russia and not only, so it brings a pretty penny.
            It is true that what will happen next is not clear and interesting, I think that if the low prices remain until the summer (which I doubt), they may "ask" American partners to leave.
            As for bursmaz and other things, it must be understood that the difficult production conditions in Russia in the northern and not only latitudes require, indeed, special materials. HERE IS NOT ONLY LUBRICANT, BUT AND A LOT OF OTHER EQUIPMENT. To be honest, the fact is that in America there is no strategic goal to strangle Russia, it is only in Russia that they think so. I will not try to teach you, I just bring my opinion: Russia, rather, causes annoyance and occasionally irritation than the desire to really strangle it. Till.
            But I don’t know where Iran takes what: I only know that production efficiency is low there and mainly Chinese components and materials are used. However, in their climate there are probably no problems.
            1. -1
              21 March 2020 19: 11
              True, what will happen next is incomprehensible and interesting, I think that if low prices last until the summer (which I doubt) /////
              ---------------------------
              That is, you agree with my forecast that sooner or later prices will go up, because everyone wants to make good money. Even if the Americans manage to reduce the cost of production to comparable to the Russian one (about $ 20), the current oil prices will only allow working on the brink of profitability. As I already wrote, it is better to suspend production until better times, and shale technologies allow this, in contrast to the traditional one. That is, the best solution for all (in my opinion) would be for the Americans to join OPEC + for a joint agreement on reducing production in the face of falling demand. But they will not agree to this, because they prefer to live well at the expense of others - you guys, cut back, and we will earn. You yourself have indicated the same - // // But "negotiating" with the Americans will not work: it is America that decides what global strategy of the oil industry - the global one - to develop and how. // // That is, not they are negotiable, but they blame others for all crises, but not themselves.
              ---------------------------------------------
              //// If the United States decided to just kill the Russian oil industry, then it would have done it simply and quickly - I already mentioned the supply of lubricants for drilling equipment, it is all American in Russia.
              Immediately: chick and - done ./////
              ------------------------------------------
              I want to remind you that oil has been produced in Russia since the end of the century before last. And somehow they did without the Americans. They did without them and their technologies in the Soviet Union. So "just chick ..." will not work (Iran is an example of this). Yes, the Americans have advanced technologies in oil production, but I think over the years of working with them, ours have also learned something (at least I hope so). Yes, and on bursmazki the same there are some developments. All the same, not all research institutes have bent into the "holy 90s".
              -------------------------------------------------- ---
              ///// Securities of the United States is a reliable thing, perhaps the most reliable in the world, it is provided with all the power of the American economy, its authority and the exclusive commitment of US financial institutions ./////
              -------------------------------------------------
              From a financial point of view, it may be so. But not political. As one "authoritative" criminal once put it in relation to his former cellmate and future banker-oligarch in the 90s --- I would not entrust my prison rations to these guys, and not that money laughing
              The slightest disobedience and funds will be frozen, arrested, seized and redirected to "fight the bloody regime." There are a lot of examples. So if you want to pursue an independent policy, then it is safer to keep money in other assets or invest in the development of your own economy, rather than finance someone else's. You veiledly offer to go down to the knee - elbow position and keep quiet in a rag. For us, this is not acceptable in principle.
              ----------------------------------------------------.
              ///// Actually "defense industry" to squeeze, and all the more or less promising developments and technologies obtained in it, to try to inject into commercial products with high added value, and to develop them immediately with an eye first to the external market. ///
              -------------------------------------------------- -----
              We have already squeezed the defense line, while our "opponents - competitors - opponents" were actively expanding it. This did not lead us to anything good. Lost a lot of technologies, enterprises, specialists, sales markets, jobs. Now you have to make up for the lag, but at the same time, and again not allow yourself to be drawn into an unnecessary arms race
              Well, lastly, the video that I got yesterday: https: //www.youtube.com/watch? V = nh4EhAIVzF8
              1. +2
                21 March 2020 21: 39
                Let's not make predictions, a lot of people are trying to express them, but it turns out that something is not predictive at all. Of course, low prices for sellers of raw materials is not good, but for the same China, which lives in production, it is good. And for ordinary citizens in the overwhelming majority, cheap gasoline and goods, the cost of which is associated with it, is also a blessing.
                As for the America + OPEC + project - I think this is a very fantastic option for reasons of an intra-American nature. I can’t imagine the United States merging in the arms with the countries that produce raw materials.
                Although this is probably possible in theory. (for me, of course, wildly, but ...)
                Regarding the fact that Russia dispensed with the Americans — it has never dispensed with the West in oil production. The same Baku oil fields were created thanks to the participation of Britain and Germany, to a lesser extent France. His there was - hell - yes rabsila. And then - in Soviet times - they bought and copied gradually more and more in the USA.
                Regarding the "knee-elbow" - did not understand anything. If you look somewhat abstractly - from the outside, so to speak, you see an acute desire of the leadership of the Russian Federation to remind of themselves as much as possible with all their might, and - mainly - the military. Shake, so to speak, nuclear and other bucks. They say that we are still a great power and so on. Well, yes, Russia can probably destroy everything on earth, including bedbugs. Here's something constructive, there are some new products, medicines, technologies ... These are all the attributes of an advanced, modern, interesting country.
                And so, in practice - how does the Russian Federation differ from that of Saudi Arabia, if you look at the gist?

                Right now - again, to call a spade a spade - Russia has entered "a tough clinch, a mortal battle with a dangerous enemy" in the person of the Kingdom of Saud.
                Just large-scale opponents, if not a coronavirus, take popcorn and bet.
                Regarding the "defense" - in fact, America has relaxed. Well, nothing, everything that is needed will be created quickly, with the necessary quality and in quantities that - as always - will shock the world. The question is WHAT good will it give to the world? In my opinion - nothing good, the more weapons, the more likely some kind of accident with consequences ...
                By the way, after the end of the Cold War, the United States, like other NATO countries, has greatly reduced the military-industrial complex, so you are exaggerating about "at a time when our" opponents - competitors - opponents "were actively expanding it.
                By the way, in the US, military developments bring good profit when implemented in commercial areas. Kaby in Russia was also - it would be great. Only in Russia to implement such achievements in fact is not much possible. Therefore, I say that too much is spent.
                I watched the video, I didn’t understand anything. Some garbage hysterical.
                1. 0
                  23 March 2020 18: 47
                  Let's not make predictions /////
                  -------------------------------------------------
                  This is more likely not a forecast, but an objective reality. Nobody will sell oil for a long time for cheap, balancing on the brink of profitability, or even at a loss, to the delight of commodity producers and lovers of cheap gasoline. Sooner or later, prices will go up. But at what point they are "balanced", then guessing about it is a thankless task. In addition, the main component in the price of gasoline is not the prime cost, but excise taxes and taxes, which, for example, in Russia make up 60%. But I would increase them even more, otherwise they are already tired of driving under the windows, in business and not in business.
                  -------------------------------------------------- -----------
                  As for the America + OPEC + project, I think this is a very fantastic option for reasons of an intra-American nature. I somehow cannot imagine the United States merging in the arms of raw material producing countries. ////
                  No need to "merge in an embrace." You just need to sit down at the negotiating table and agree. When the Americans feel the urge, they even talk to the Taliban. But the reluctance of the Yankees to negotiate because of a domestic and foreign policy nature or something else, costs the rest of the world dearly in the form of a series of wars (cold and hot) and all kinds of crises (economic and financial).
                  -------------------------------------------------- ------------
                  The same Baku oil fields were created thanks to the participation of Britain and Germany, to a lesser extent France. His there was - hell yes rabsila. /////////////////
                  Undoubtedly (where is America here?). Backward and agrarian Russia attracted Western countries to the development of deposits, there was access to technology, knowledge and, for sure, trained Russian engineers. And there is no need to place semi-colonial, illiterate tsarist Russia and the Soviet Union on a par with those who emerged (I admit - not without the help of the American bourgeoisie) among the industrially developed countries and were the FIRST to go into space. Well, since you have already touched on the topic of labor, I remembered an article here on VO, where one of our comrades shared his impressions of a trip to enterprises in the USA. So there, almost all of the engineering and technical personnel consisted of Indians, Chinese, Russians and Jews, and the "blue collars" - all the local staff. Who would have thought?
                  -------------------------------------------------- -
                  . And then - in Soviet times - they bought and copied gradually more and more in the USA .////////////////////////
                  Strange, very strange. The Jackson-Broom amendment immediately comes to mind, according to which even the supply of milk filling lines was blocked, and you are talking about the sale of equipment for a strategically important industry of a potential enemy. I remember one Japanese company ("TOSHIBA" it seems) the Americans lowered the plinth for the supply of high-precision machine tools. Why are there machines - they imposed an embargo on grain supplies to the USSR. And YOU are talking. Anticipating your argument about the purchase of grain, I will say - we had enough of our own grain, but for the countries "embarking on the path of socialist development" and other parasites, we had to buy more in the USA and Canada. Here it was bought rather over the shoulder of the supply. Still, to carry grain from these countries to Cuba, Nicaragua, Angola, etc. much closer than from the ports of Odessa and Novorossiysk.
                  ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Regarding the "knee-elbow" - I did not understand anything. ///////////////////////
                  Yes, you understand everything. This is understood even by the Poles, who, through the words of his minister in private conversation, spoke even more figuratively (something like oral suction from American partners). Once again-- for us, this is unacceptable. Russia is one of the permanent members of the UN Security Council. And you want-- you don't want to, but you have to reckon with this.
                  -------------------------------------------------- ---
                  If you look a little abstractly - from the side, so to speak, you see an acute desire of the leadership of the Russian Federation to remind of itself as much as possible by all means, and - mainly - by the military ./////////
                  And I look at it from the other side. And I see that my country is surrounded on all sides by a ring of Russophobic countries - the Limitrophes, with the deployment of military infrastructure on their territory amid hysterical cries about the need to contain aggressive Russia. Demonstration of military capabilities on the part of Russia is a reaction to what is happening and at the same time a call for negotiations: "Guys, let's live together. Well, he nafig!" Or as we say - do not wake up smartly while it is quiet. The situation is reminiscent of the events of the Caribbean crisis, when, in response to the deployment by the Americans of the IRBM in Turkey, the USSR deployed its missiles in Cuba. And under the threat of a nuclear conflict, the parties managed to agree. At the same time there was a warming in relations, recalling Nikita Sergeich's "corn voyage".
                  -----------------------------------------------------------------
                  And so, in practice - how the Russian Federation differs from the same Saudi Arabia ////////////////
                  Very different. For example, the one that supplies rocket engines to the United States. Fighters and engines for them to China. Builds nuclear power plants in many countries of the world (which has already forgotten how to do in America, by the way), etc. Yes, the same Iran, imposed on all sides by sanctions, will give the Saud, and many countries the so-called. "developed European democracy" one hundred points ahead in terms of technological development. And you are comparing with Russia. And by the way, have you heard something about
                  Australian computers? But the fact that Australia is a supplier of bauxite and other ore to China is known. This is on the issue of raw materials appendages.
                  -----------------------------------------------------------
                  1. +3
                    23 March 2020 18: 57
                    You are a good person, honest and decent. Therefore, I will not try to dissuade you of anything. Not because it is impossible - because it is on people like you that Russia is holding on to today. Let everything work out for you!
                2. +1
                  23 March 2020 19: 00
                  I watched the video, I didn’t understand anything. Bullshit some hysterical ///
                  If we discard the propaganda husk, the video reflects such a moment about which I indicated above that the Saudis will not be able to fill all markets with oil. Including on the issue of logistics. There are not enough tankers and shipowners lifted the price of freight, making the price of oil even less profitable.
      3. The comment was deleted.
  19. +1
    18 March 2020 18: 00
    The main buyers of Soviet oil were the CMEA countries. Payment was made in foreign currency. The price was fixed for 5 years in advance. The USSR was destroyed not by the Saudis, but by Gorbachev.
    1. +2
      18 March 2020 18: 29
      In 86, if you remember the Chernobyl disaster, there was so much money to liquidate the consequences, passion, plus the external situation and the peak of the war in Afghanistan ... and of course the actions of the then ruling our so-called elite
      1. Fat
        +1
        18 March 2020 21: 23
        Quote: Andrey VOV
        In 86, if you remember the Chernobyl disaster, there was so much money to liquidate the consequences, passion, plus the external situation and the peak of the war in Afghanistan ... and of course the actions of the then ruling our so-called elite

        It is worth adding the Spitak (Leninakan) earthquake of 1988, to overcome the consequences of which huge sums of money were spent from the budget of the Union ... And as a finishing blow, the collapse of CMEA
        The Soviet delegation was led by Nikolai Ryzhkov. He calmly stated that trade for transferable rubles between the CMEA countries was being terminated. The dollar should be the currency, and the price of any product should be no lower than the world one. People in the hall were bewildered. A stunned Czech delegation said: “But in this case, we will have to leave CMEA ?!” And Ryzhkov answered: “Well, go out. Yes please!"

        Valery Naydenov (Bulgaria) on the 1990 CMEA session
  20. 0
    18 March 2020 18: 52
    This time it will be the other way around
  21. -2
    18 March 2020 19: 08
    Well, in general, well-known things are listed ... True. oddly enough, despite the fact that none of the above is hidden - heaped up, for example, do not believe in it)))
    1. 0
      18 March 2020 20: 29
      Quote: Cowbra
      heaped, for example, do not believe in it)

      - heaped up is such a job.
  22. +1
    18 March 2020 21: 23
    I wonder how many years will be enough oil? )))
    1. -2
      19 March 2020 11: 50
      Quote: Mister Who
      I wonder how many years will be enough oil?

      I think the question should be posed in another way - how quickly they will find a cheap alternative source of energy, when hydrocarbons will not be in great demand in order to play a decisive role in energy production around the world.
  23. -1
    23 March 2020 07: 59
    Quote: Sibguest
    Because LUKOIL has long been sitting only on production and, unlike SURGUTNEFTEGAS and even ROSNEFT, has not been looking for new deposits for a very long time. Therefore, Mr. Fedun is unhappy - LUKOIL has nothing to increase production, and even in the future nothing is visible.

    But Sechin is now pleased.
  24. 0
    24 March 2020 08: 13
    There is a good analysis of the oil situation in the newspaper tomorrow. The actions of the United States with shale oil, in Venezuela, who supplies what kind of oil (oil happens to be different and different regions and markets need certain oil), actions of Russia and Rosneft are analyzed in detail.

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