Germany predicts two years of coronavirus pandemic to the world


Propagating in waves, the coronavirus can last for several years. True, the propagation speed of these waves is difficult to calculate.


Such an assumption was made by the director of the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) Lothar Wheeler.

According to the German scientist, the coronavirus pandemic will last another two years. And even the creation of a vaccine will have little effect on the number of cases. But creating a vaccine will help limit the pandemic, so the sooner it is created, the better.

Lothar Wheeler suggests that over the next two years, approximately 60-70 percent of the world's population will be ill with coronavirus, after which humanity will develop immunity against this infection.

The scientist believes that the duration of the pandemic will depend on a complex of factors, including the number of cases, the development of immunity to COVID-19, and the duration of the vaccine.

Wheeler does not undertake to predict the level of mortality during the coronavirus pandemic. He did not rule out the possibility that the restrictive measures introduced by many countries to limit the spread of infection would not cancel until the pandemic ends.

The Koch Institute is considered one of the leading research institutions in Germany, administered by the country's Ministry of Health.
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  1. Honest Citizen 17 March 2020 17: 23 New
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    Ungrateful thing is to make forecasts. Moreover, now there is still only a pandemic and not an epidemic.
    But we will see
    1. 16112014nk 17 March 2020 17: 29 New
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      But a pandemic is much more dangerous than an epidemic.
      1. Kurare 17 March 2020 17: 34 New
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        Quote: 16112014nk
        But a pandemic is much more dangerous than an epidemic.

        The difference is "only" in scale. The epidemic is local, and the pandemic is global.
        1. Misha Honest 17 March 2020 22: 10 New
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          Quote: Kurare
          The difference is "only" in scale. The epidemic is local and the pandemic is global

          This is the flu, do not look ... And flu has been walking around the planet for decades or even centuries.
          1. syndicalist 18 March 2020 06: 33 New
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            Scientists do not yet know what it is. Only the first cautious assessments are made.
    2. Voyager 17 March 2020 17: 33 New
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      The pandemic is just the final, most powerful stage of the epidemic. Nowhere else to go.
      1. Honest Citizen 17 March 2020 17: 35 New
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        Well, now how many sick people are there in the world? And how much is Germany.
        I believe that while there are no epidemics in countries, talking about a pandemic is premature.
        1. Voyager 17 March 2020 18: 13 New
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          Are you sure it's premature? Me not.
        2. syndicalist 18 March 2020 06: 42 New
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          There is a statistical model built on Chinese data. The first 2-3 weeks the disease does not manifest itself in the infected. With this in mind, the pandemic is already in full swing. If you wait for at least 5% of the population to become infected, this will mean that almost everyone is infected.
          1. Nastia makarova 18 March 2020 07: 27 New
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            and everyone will die?
            1. syndicalist 18 March 2020 08: 35 New
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              Where everything was started, mortality is about 5%. Where they decided to “overtake,” there is so far less than 1%. So far, the worst dead / recovered ratio in Italy is 0.85, i.e. almost fifti / fifti. Judging by the fact that our authorities really want to hold a "vote" on the Constitution, cap-and-vote sentiment will continue to prevail, which means that the percentage will be rather big.
              1. Nastia makarova 18 March 2020 09: 02 New
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                it's all artificial hysteria
      2. Sergey39 17 March 2020 17: 40 New
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        Coronavirus is just an excuse for a long overdue redivision of the world. And how much this will last from the coronavirus is independent.
      3. Arslan Ali 17 March 2020 18: 32 New
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        The coronavirus epidemic began in China, then the virus spread to other countries, but did not become an epidemic yet, but it became global. (pandemic).
        1. Shuttle 18 March 2020 03: 29 New
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          Quote: Arslan Ali
          The coronavirus epidemic began in China, then the virus spread to other countries, but did not become an epidemic yet, but it became global. (pandemic).

          How is it that it turns out that the epidemic did not become an epidemic?
          fool
    3. Aaron Zawi 17 March 2020 17: 35 New
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      The economy in the world will crash.
      1. Cottodraton 17 March 2020 19: 11 New
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        It should have crashed a long time since someone cut the typewriter at full power.
      2. Kisa 17 March 2020 20: 03 New
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        this will be interesting to observe. most people do not have savings all over the world live one day. if everything is quarantined, the services and entertainment sector will extend how much 70% of humanity will last .... for a stew like in the 30s during a depression ....
        here in a week it is difficult to predict. in Italy, Spain, the infection is gaining momentum of 300-400 people a day ....
        1. Maki Avellevich 17 March 2020 20: 30 New
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          Quote: kitty
          this will be interesting to observe. most people do not have savings all over the world live one day.

          what is the point of saving if during the crisis they depreciate?
          1. Nastia makarova 18 March 2020 07: 29 New
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            will not depreciate !!! there will be no demand for goods
        2. Nastia makarova 18 March 2020 07: 27 New
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          garden to help survive in Russia
    4. Harry.km 17 March 2020 17: 36 New
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      Quote: Honest Citizen
      Ungrateful thing is to make forecasts. Moreover, now there is still only a pandemic and not an epidemic.
      But we will see

      It is not a thankful job to evaluate expert forecasts without even understanding the definitions!
      According to the Great Russian Encyclopedia, epidemic - this is the spread of an infectious disease that significantly exceeds the level of normal morbidity in a given area.
      Pandemic - This is an epidemic characterized by the spread of an infectious disease to the entire country, the territory of neighboring states, and sometimes many countries of the world.
      1. Honest Citizen 17 March 2020 17: 37 New
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        It is not a thankful job to evaluate expert forecasts without even understanding the definitions!

        I repeat.
        Well, now how many sick people are there in the world? And how much is Germany.
        I believe that while there are no epidemics in countries, talking about a pandemic is premature.
        In some country have declared an epidemic? Perhaps in China, I won’t argue, I just don’t know. But in all other countries they didn’t seem to be announced.
        1. Harry.km 17 March 2020 17: 40 New
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          Quote: Honest Citizen
          I believe that while there are no epidemics in countries, talking about a pandemic is premature.

          Dear, you apparently are a classified microbiologist about whom the WHO and the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation do not know.
          1. Honest Citizen 17 March 2020 17: 42 New
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            Alas for me, I am far from microbiology. But common sense suggests that while there is no epidemic, talking about a pandemic is premature.
            1. Harry.km 17 March 2020 17: 47 New
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              Quote: Honest Citizen
              common sense suggests that while there is no epidemic, talking about a pandemic is premature.

              You are right in that))) But not in our case ... The epidemic threshold has already been passed. It is not possible to localize the infection, there is nothing to treat. In the Russian Federation, everything is just beginning ... After 2 weeks of sick (officially) there will be several thousand (I am still optimistic). There are no masks in pharmacies. We will eat arbidol)))
              1. Gray brother 17 March 2020 18: 04 New
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                Quote: Harry.km
                The epidemic threshold has long been passed.

                Where exactly?
                Do not bother yourself with nonsense, the word "pandemic" defines only the fact that the disease has crossed the borders of countries and continents, while there is no need for an epidemic in all these countries, there simply are people who are sick and that's it.
                1. Harry.km 17 March 2020 18: 10 New
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                  Quote: Gray Brother
                  Quote: Harry.km
                  The epidemic threshold has long been passed.

                  Where exactly?
                  Do not bother yourself with nonsense, the word "pandemic" defines only the fact that the disease has crossed the borders of countries and continents, while there is no need for an epidemic in all these countries, there simply are people who are sick and that's it.

                  I won’t even argue, reading you understand that we live from different countries. In my country, the government and the president recognize the pandemic and set up operational headquarters. Well, in yours ... and in yours, they continue to struggle with the "libroids"))))
                  1. Gray brother 17 March 2020 18: 18 New
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                    Quote: Harry.km
                    In my country, the government and the president recognize the pandemic and set up operational headquarters. Well, in yours ... and in yours, they continue to struggle with the "libroids"))))

                    I am happy for your country. However, you never understood what I wrote.
                    Are you olga trolls on the network fronts contused chtol?
              2. Voyager 17 March 2020 18: 14 New
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                Arbidol will not only not help, but it will also harm your body.
                1. Harry.km 17 March 2020 18: 26 New
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                  Quote: Voyager
                  Arbidol

                  Sarcasm! )))
                  1. Voyager 17 March 2020 18: 33 New
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                    My cant, not recognized hi Last time, all on serious
                2. Gray brother 17 March 2020 18: 28 New
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                  Quote: Voyager
                  Arbidol will not only not help, but it will also harm your body.

                  All immunostimulants that are not in the form of injections are bullshit.
                3. major147 17 March 2020 18: 54 New
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                  Quote: Voyager
                  Arbidol will not only not help, but it will also harm your body.

                  This is because they are not being treated correctly. And you need this:
                  Hundreds of Hindu believers threw a party on March 14 at which they drank cow urine in the hope that it would protect them from the coronavirus. A group called Akhil Bharat Hindu Mahasabha (All India Hindu Union) held a party on Saturday in Delhi, the capital of the country, where they drank urine in the hope of protecting themselves from the virus. The event was attended by about 200 people, and the organizers are going to hold similar meetings in other areas of India, where 84 cases of the disease were recorded, as a result of which two people died.
                  One of the men present said that he had been drinking cow urine for 21 years, taking a bath with cow dung, and had never been ill.

                  Upload photos !?
              3. Tank hard 17 March 2020 18: 47 New
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                Quote: Harry.km
                There are no masks in pharmacies.

                Masks do not help ... Is it not so? And respirators are in workwear stores. repeat
                1. Harry.km 17 March 2020 18: 53 New
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                  Quote: Tank Hard
                  Masks do not help ... Is it not so?

                  Not this way! The mask helps not to infect someone ...
                  1. Tank hard 17 March 2020 18: 55 New
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                    Quote: Harry.km
                    The mask helps not to infect someone ...

                    For how long?
                    1. Harry.km 17 March 2020 19: 00 New
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                      Quote: Tank Hard
                      For how long?

                      I would love to answer your question, but I would like specifics, tell you about what protection class? If the third grade, then long enough!
                      1. Tank hard 17 March 2020 19: 07 New
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                        Quote: Harry.km
                        I would love to answer your question, but I would like specifics, tell you about what protection class? If the third grade, then long enough!

                        Are you such a connoisseur of protection that you want to tell me that class protections exist ?:
                        FFP1 (4 MPC) - up to 80%
                        FFP2 (12 MPC) - up to 94%
                        FFP3 (50 MPC) - up to 99%
                        And what protection class does the ordinary mask that was sold in the pharmacy belong to? Citizen expert. repeat
                      2. Harry.km 17 March 2020 19: 13 New
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                        Quote: Tank Hard
                        And what protection class does the ordinary mask that was sold in the pharmacy belong to?

                        All types of masks (respirators) are sold in pharmacies. There is a third class, the price before the pandemic was 100-150 rubles. How many now I don’t know ... And what for you "ordinary mask" I also don’t know. There is no exhalation valve, it looks like a rag, but in protection class 2 or 3. Enough for 8 hours. The cost was 25 rubles.
                      3. Tank hard 17 March 2020 19: 25 New
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                        Quote: Harry.km
                        And what for you "ordinary mask" I also do not know

                        With an expert, I, apparently, was in a hurry ... repeat
                        Quote: Harry.km
                        All types of masks (respirators) are sold in pharmacies. There is a third class, the price before the pandemic was 100-150 rubles

                        What are your packaged pharmacies? In our city, only in specialized stores there was some variety and it was a couple of months ago ... The third "class" of protection was almost never met, except via the Internet and the prices were more than those that you indicated, so it’s cheaper to buy a PMM mask (type BRIZ-4301M) + filters (the cheapest, + review, + sub-mask (does not fog up), + checked by deed). But you will look cool in this (at least for now). But this is better than 8 (or even 3, in real) hours.
                        Quote: Harry.km
                        Enough for 8 hours.

                        request
                      4. Harry.km 17 March 2020 19: 46 New
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                        Quote: Tank Hard
                        What are your packaged pharmacies?

                        I admit, I also generalized about pharmacies)) I saw, before, like stale goods, of the 2nd class without a valve. Now there is nothing at all. But BREEZE is cool!))))
                        Quote: Tank Hard
                        But you will look cool in this (at least for now).

                        Somehow it was necessary for people to appear in GP-5 ...
                        Quote: Tank Hard
                        But this is better than 8 (or even 3, in real) hours.

                        It’s in the manuals and in accordance with GOST 8 hours, but it wasn’t necessary to check how it was in real life.
                      5. Tank hard 17 March 2020 19: 56 New
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                        Quote: Harry.km
                        But BREEZE is cool!))))

                        I have a BREEZE for my family, and PMK 3 itself, in excellent condition from storage, has a complete set, but walking in this now will be somewhat defiant. wink
                      6. Harry.km 17 March 2020 20: 22 New
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                        Quote: Tank Hard
                        PMK 3

                        A good alternative to ZM)) After a couple of weeks, I think the acquisition issue will become very relevant))) But this is not a panacea ... the incubation period is from 3 to 24 days, the possibility of transmission 24 hours after infection has been proven. Contagiousness 3-6 (normal flu 2-3) is a lot. Ours officially recognize 1% of the asymptomatic course, and the Chinese say that 50% of people under the age of 14 carry symptoms without symptoms. So, in my opinion, the prospects are very vague ...
                      7. Tank hard 17 March 2020 20: 31 New
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                        Quote: Harry.km
                        A good alternative to ZM)) After a couple of weeks, I think the acquisition issue will become very relevant))) But this is not a panacea ...

                        Yes, sarcasm is, despite all these gas masks and respirator packs, all this is useless in our reality, well, you can’t isolate yourself for up to 3 months. For this, strengthening, a group of trained comrades, all-round defense, stocks ... All this is not possible in our conditions, gas masks and products will not help rot in vain ... Calm down for everyone. stop laughing
                      8. Harry.km 17 March 2020 21: 12 New
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                        Quote: Tank Hard
                        all this is useless in our reality

                        + 1)))
                        Yes, a serious thing, but in the size of all mankind it is absolutely not deadly)))
                        Just arrived from stores, there’s no buckwheat in a magnet since lunch ... Here is such a calico))
                      9. Nastia makarova 18 March 2020 07: 33 New
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                        and toilet paper bought a year in advance?)))
                      10. Harry.km 18 March 2020 07: 51 New
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                        Quote: Nastia Makarova
                        and toilet paper bought a year in advance?)))

                        So far with this, at least everything is in order with us. But rumors are already circulating that somewhere, at some wholesale bases, the goods are no longer there. Although the bulk of the people are kidding with those who are "charged" for the year ahead ... Although maybe they are right what )))
                      11. Nastia makarova 18 March 2020 08: 59 New
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                        it's all because of human stupidity
  • lucul 17 March 2020 20: 01 New
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    The epidemic threshold has long been passed. It is not possible to localize the infection, there is nothing to treat

    Why ? Let me remind you - in the 20th century there were outbreaks and plague and cholera and anthrax and all of them were quickly localized and defeated in literally weeks. Now what? Have forgotten how to fight? AND ? Or just someone really needs this coronavirus?
    By the way, according to rumors, many who have recovered from coronavirus already have infertility - but again, this is rumor ...
  • Nastia makarova 18 March 2020 07: 30 New
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    they got it already with masks)))) there is no and it is not necessary, it is better to buy paper and buckwheat /)))))
  • ghby 18 March 2020 07: 31 New
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    Quote: Harry.km
    We will eat arbidol)))

    There is no sense in him, how many do not eat
  • Kurare 17 March 2020 18: 06 New
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    Quote: Honest Citizen
    But common sense suggests that while there is no epidemic, talking about a pandemic is premature.

    By announcing an epidemic in a single country and a global pandemic, scientists thus acknowledge that they cannot stop the spread of Wuhan Infection. When an epidemic / pandemic is announced, it is possible to allocate large sums of money for, for example, developing a vaccine, moreover, at once by several institutes.

    Your common sense is right and wrong at the same time. hi If you do NOT declare urgency, you can simply overload the health care system, even one that is developed as in Germany, and then there will be panic and a complete collapse with all the consequences.

    At the same time, there are precedents when a pandemic was announced (swine flu), and zilch came out. More precisely, the billions of dollars / euros were very beautifully "mastered" by the pharmaceutical industry, and the pandemic turned out to be just another flu.
  • Machito 17 March 2020 21: 16 New
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    I did not notice much excitement and panic in Moscow stores, but stood in line for food for more than an hour. From the shelves really dared toilet paper, soap and napkins. They are simply not there. Muscovites are completely calm, but they are making reserves in full. Apparently the stores have good revenue.
    1. DymOk_v_dYmke 17 March 2020 22: 26 New
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      Quote: Bearded
      From the shelves really dared toilet paper, soap and napkins. They are simply not there. Muscovites are completely calm, but they are making reserves in full.

      Wonderful. It was necessary to sweep away alcohol-containing drinks.
      And they are preserved well and have healing properties hi .
  • New Year day 17 March 2020 17: 40 New
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    Quote: Honest Citizen
    now there is only a pandemic and not an epidemic.

    Pandemic is bigger than epidemic
    1. Gray brother 17 March 2020 18: 07 New
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      Quote: Silvestr
      Pandemic is bigger than epidemic

      In a geographical sense, yes, but in terms of the number of cases it’s not necessary. It depends on what kind of epidemic.
      For example, in 2017 - 2018, in the USA, 78 thousand people squinted during the flu epidemic, and got sick a hundred times more.
      Not compare yet
  • knn54 17 March 2020 17: 40 New
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    He seems to be more of an administrator than a scientist. A lot of words, "scary" numbers and NO specifics.
  • Olya Tsako 17 March 2020 17: 58 New
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    Why watch when around us nihilistic stupid nonsense and obscurantism.
    In St. Petersburg at the Smolensk cemetery is the chapel of Ksenia of Petersburg, a particularly revered local saint. There are always a lot of people here. The place is called prayer. I get to worship in the chapel tightly. Not a single face in the mask. People go to the icon in a row, kiss it - I have time to notice that some wipe the glass with an antiseptic cloth, but few. Then they kiss the stone sarcophagus of the saint in the same manner. It is quiet, calm, warm, singing in beautiful voices - it seems as if a dangerous virus is raging in parallel reality.
    I understand the tradition of crucifixion (and the Orthodox have a crucifix week but this is a direct way to spread the coronavirus. And even that the question of closing churches for quarantine is not discussed. Previously, the St. Petersburg diocese said that it’s not that there will be no quarantine, but it’s not even supposed to curtail the worship of relics because of a pandemic, and the archpriest of the Kazan Cathedral said that the virus could not spread in the church, because "the Lord will heal everyone"
    And THIS is all over Russia.
    From this in the "plague years" the city died out.
    In the courtyard of the 21st century.
    1. tihonmarine 17 March 2020 18: 08 New
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      Quote: Olya Tsako
      Not a single face in the mask. People go to the icon in a row, kiss her - I have time to notice

      You need to go to God with an open face, and with a closed one to girls with reduced social responsibility. Well, kissing an icon is a believer’s business. I personally do not kiss the icon.
      1. Olya Tsako 17 March 2020 18: 11 New
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        Each keyboard advisor imagines himself a gross strategy, seeing the battle from the side.
        Who came to the Temple-kisses. This is a tradition.
        1. Tank hard 17 March 2020 18: 50 New
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          Quote: Olya Tsako
          Each keyboard advisor thinks of himself as a social strategy

          Self-critical. good
      2. dauria 17 March 2020 19: 41 New
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        You need to go to God with an open face,


        Unfortunately, doctors have no right to send you to God for treatment. Will babysit, falling from their feet. Torn between the urgent (and not only the flu) and flooded. But what about? He will pray for recovery, and for peace. No earnings left.
        Is it really so hard to understand that this flu is not terrible, but the unpreparedness of any medicine in any country for such an influx of patients? The Chinese should not erect a monument to the heroes-cosmonauts, not the military, but to those nurses who did not crawl out of the hospital for days. Without relatives, without children, without taking off overalls.
    2. Fishery 18 March 2020 00: 09 New
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      their Mother of God will hide with a cloak))
  • Paul Siebert 17 March 2020 18: 30 New
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    New decree of the Ministry of Health of a tolerant EU:
    "During the spread of the coronavirus, more than two in the same bed cannot be collected!" laughing
  • Barmaleyka 17 March 2020 18: 49 New
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    Quote: Honest Citizen
    that now there’s only a pandemic and not an epidemic.

    you would first find out the meaning of the terms and then you were in a hurry to leave the FIRST comment
    1. Tank hard 17 March 2020 18: 56 New
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      Quote: Barmaleyka
      you would first find out the meaning of the terms and then you were in a hurry to leave the FIRST comment

      But what about the stars? laughing
      1. Grim Reaper 18 March 2020 11: 25 New
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        Quote: Tank Hard
        Quote: Barmaleyka
        you would first find out the meaning of the terms and then you were in a hurry to leave the FIRST comment

        But what about the stars? laughing

        This is where the warriors, nerds and the "Merlican spies" "scorch". laughing
        1. Tank hard 18 March 2020 13: 04 New
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          Quote: Grim Reaper
          This is where the boys, nerds and the "Merlican spies" "scorch"

          It is what it is. hi
  • seregarodionov 17 March 2020 19: 00 New
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    panicdemia
  • Yaro Polk 17 March 2020 20: 35 New
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    Pandemic (Greek πανδημία “the whole nation”) is an unusually strong epidemic characterized by the spread of an infectious disease throughout the country, neighboring states, and sometimes many countries of the world ...
    1. Yaro Polk 17 March 2020 20: 37 New
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      Thanks to the filthy mattresses (sarcasm)
  • venik 17 March 2020 20: 45 New
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    Quote: Honest Citizen
    Moreover, now there is still only a pandemic and not an epidemic.

    ========
    But do you even know. WHY is a "pandemic" different from an "epidemic" ??? So: "epidemic - this is when an outbreak of the disease is actively and uncontrollably spreading in the territory of one country. AND pandemic - this is when a disease is raging in different parts of the world."!!!
    Well, what is worse ??? fool
  • Maz
    Maz 17 March 2020 22: 19 New
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    Funny, in this situation, only Russia is in a 100% gain. Firstly, all anti-Russian sanctions will collapse in the near future, since the EU will need to survive. Secondly, Nord Stream-2 can now be completed without regard to US sanctions, because against the backdrop of the general economic crisis, all US threats look like a "child horror story."
  • north 2 17 March 2020 23: 39 New
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    an epidemic is already a known disease that has spread locally and against which there is a vaccine
    and there are methods to treat it. A pandemic is a disease still unknown. which has spread globally throughout the world, which until now was unknown and against which there are no drugs
    no methods to treat it. So a pandemic is a worse epidemic
  • cniza 17 March 2020 17: 25 New
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    He did not rule out the possibility that the restrictive measures introduced by many countries to limit the spread of infection would not cancel until the pandemic ends.


    Then humanity will die out of hunger and cold ...
  • NF68 17 March 2020 17: 25 New
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    Many stores in Germany do not find kitchen napkins or toilet paper. Shelves with some products are half empty or even empty. Even if this pandemic lasts less than two years, then you can’t store everything in advance. But the people are still fooling around.
    1. A. Privalov 17 March 2020 18: 11 New
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      People are scared. They can be understood. They are buying up not in order to gain for two years, but so that for some time it would be possible to stay at home without any problems. At least until everything gains at least some stability and it becomes clear what happens next. I dare to suggest that not today or tomorrow you will see this phenomenon at home. Alas...
      1. NF68 17 March 2020 18: 41 New
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        Quote: A. Privalov
        People are scared. They can be understood. They are buying up not in order to gain for two years, but so that for some time it would be possible to stay at home without any problems. At least until everything gains at least some stability and it becomes clear what happens next. I dare to suggest that not today or tomorrow you will see this phenomenon at home. Alas...

        Quote: A. Privalov
        People are scared. They can be understood. They are buying up not in order to gain for two years, but so that for some time it would be possible to stay at home without any problems. At least until everything gains at least some stability and it becomes clear what happens next. I dare to suggest that not today or tomorrow you will see this phenomenon at home. Alas...


        And someone is not making bad money on this.
        1. A. Privalov 17 March 2020 18: 43 New
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          Quote: NF68
          And someone is not making bad money on this.

          Well, the deal, for now, didn’t get to the giveaway.
      2. seregarodionov 17 March 2020 19: 04 New
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        get a subsistence allowance for six months and today, from a TV platform, the wise guy added cash for the same period
      3. Nastia makarova 18 March 2020 07: 37 New
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        let no one sit at home))) is to quit work and live on what?
        1. A. Privalov 18 March 2020 08: 46 New
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          You are mistaken, dear. You won’t sit at home if quarantine is announced; only a couple of weeks will remain.
          Take a look around. Not in such countries far from you for not observing the quarantine by a healthy person 1000 Euro fine., Patient, 7 years in prison. If survives.
          1. Nastia makarova 18 March 2020 09: 04 New
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            yeah, everyone will die, do not say stupid things, all this nonsense about the coronovirus got
            1. A. Privalov 18 March 2020 09: 48 New
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              Nastya, believe me, I sincerely wish that this scourge did not touch you! hi
              1. Nastia makarova 18 March 2020 09: 55 New
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                I wish you the same
      4. Grim Reaper 18 March 2020 11: 30 New
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        Yes, I was surprised to see the half-empty regiments of Auchan today. And the madness in the eyes of people. Buying "at least something" carts.
        The paranoia virus is much more dangerous than some sort of crowned virus.
        ECB.
  • Operator 17 March 2020 17: 26 New
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    The greatest danger of coronavirus in another is its ability to mutate and re-infect survivors with greater mortality and immunity to previously developed vaccines.
    1. Never mind 17 March 2020 17: 36 New
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      Scientists have already refuted no re-infection.
      1. Operator 17 March 2020 18: 02 New
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        I'm talking about re-infection with a new strain of coronavirus (after a mutation in humans).
        1. Departure 17 March 2020 19: 03 New
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          A quote from Wikipedia about the Spanish epidemic for you to think about; “Many of the victims of the flu were young and healthy people in their 20s to 40s (usually only children, the elderly, pregnant women, and people with certain medical conditions are at high risk).” why do you think so? hi
          1. Operator 17 March 2020 19: 09 New
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            What does the specificity of the Spanish-18 lesion have to do with the specifics of the COVIR-19 lesion?

            And what can you know now about the specifics of the defeat of COVIR-20?
  • asbond 17 March 2020 17: 26 New
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    60-70 ٪ - a lot! If we take mortality in the region of 2-4% of the sick (now the ratio of sick and dead is approximately the same) - we get about 1-2% of the total population of the planet! This is just an unrealistic big number! Something the Germans are overwhelming with panic!
    1. Paranoid50 17 March 2020 17: 32 New
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      Quote: asbond
      the Germans are overwhelming with panic!

      This, by the way, is not the Germans whose head-mattress just wanted to buy the future vaccine? wink
    2. Kurare 17 March 2020 17: 36 New
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      Quote: asbond
      60-70 ٪ - a lot!

      This is exactly the level after which the epidemic, or now a pandemic, is beginning to fade. There are a sufficient number of ill and who simply can not further infect someone.
    3. New Year day 17 March 2020 17: 54 New
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      Quote: asbond
      Something the Germans are overwhelming panic!



      Infection schedule
      \ World indicators
      1. A. Privalov 17 March 2020 18: 22 New
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        I don’t see anything particularly out of the ordinary.
        For example, the number of cases of coronavirus in Italy grew like this:

        20.02 - 3 people
        21.02-19
        22.02-62
        23.02-150
        24.02-229
        25.02-288
        26.02-378
        27.02-650
        28.02-888
        29.02-1.128
        01.03-1.694
        02.03-2.036
        03.03-2.502
        04.03-3.089
        05.03-3.858
        06.03-4.636
        07.03-5.883
        08.03-7.375
        .

        The number of infections in Italy in the last day amounted to 2470,
        In total, 27980 were infected, 2158 patients died, and 2740 recovered.
        1. Avior 18 March 2020 00: 14 New
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          . 2158 patients died, and 2740 recovered.

          Mortality at 40 percent ?!
          Are there any errors in the numbers?
          1. A. Privalov 18 March 2020 08: 23 New
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            Sorry, you were wrong in the calculations. Try again. hi
            1. Avior 18 March 2020 10: 07 New
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              I made a mistake?
              If 2740 people died for the 2158 survivors, then (2158: (2158 + 2740)) • 100% = 44% mortality.
              Of almost two people, one dies, the second recovers.
              This is something wrong with the numbers, I can’t believe in such mortality
              hi
              1. A. Privalov 18 March 2020 10: 18 New
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                The mortality rate is calculated by the ratio of the number of cases with the number of deaths.
                2158: 27980 X 100 = 7,71%
                A lot, too, but this is due to the large risk group in Italy. There are a lot of elderly people. hi
                1. Avior 18 March 2020 13: 08 New
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                  The mortality rate is calculated by the ratio of the number of cases with the number of deaths.

                  why's that? It is not known how the disease will end, some of the sick will still die, and you think by the number of sick. It does not carry any information; it only makes sense after the pandemic is over.
                  the percentage is calculated according to the results of the disease, that is, for those who have recovered or died from it, according to their ratio
                  such a ratio as you have in the numbers nowhere, the usual - for one dead ten recovered
                  https://multimedia.scmp.com/widgets/china/wuhanvirus/#
                  hi
                  1. A. Privalov 18 March 2020 13: 16 New
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                    To understand: The first column of the table is the age group, the second is the distribution of deaths by age group, the third is mortality (percentage of deaths among those infected).

                    According to the data shown in the table, in Italy there are no deaths from coronavirus among those under the age of 30. Only 30% of deaths occur in the age group of 49 - 0,7 years; they have a probability of mortality from coronavirus - 02 - 03%.

                    Age group 50 - 69 years - 11,2% of deaths, average mortality - 1,0 - 3,2%.

                    The highest mortality rate in the elderly group. Therefore, every tenth infected person dies due to coronavirus if he is over 70 years old. In this group, mortality is 11%.

                    Moreover, 60% of the dead are men, 40% are women.

                    As of March 17, the highest mortality rate was recorded in Italy. There, 7,71% of patients died from coronavirus. This is followed by Iran (6,11%). Spain (4,5%) and China (3,99%). In other countries, mortality is noticeably lower - less than 2,5 percent.
                    1. Avior 18 March 2020 13: 24 New
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                      I do not see any connection with the topic
                      The older, the higher the risk everywhere, not only in Italy
                      But this ratio as a whole for all groups together between the recovered and the dead is almost one to one, nowhere
                      Therefore, I was surprised
                      It turns out, according to the results of the disease, half recovers, half dies.
                      Obviously what is wrong, this cannot be
                      hi
                      1. A. Privalov 18 March 2020 13: 28 New
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                        Quote: Avior
                        Obviously what is wrong, this cannot be

                        Fact: In Italy, on March 17.03.20, 28 nearly XNUMX thousand people fell ill,
                        the total number of deaths exceeded 2,1 thousand
                        with 2,7 thousand cured.
                        What else bothers you?
                      2. Avior 18 March 2020 13: 34 New
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                        And you are not confused by the atypical ratio between the recovered and the dead?
                        Perhaps the numbers will change further as the recoveries grow, but so far they look strange
                        hi
                      3. A. Privalov 18 March 2020 13: 39 New
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                        This is not a typical disease at all. So, you can evaluate only what is. Italy is a completely normal and developed country. They neither need to hide nor exaggerate.
                      4. Liam 18 March 2020 13: 48 New
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                        Figures in China on January 29 (at the beginning of the epidemic).



                        CORONAVIRUS
                        News per night: The death toll from coronavirus in China reaches 132
                        January 29 202005: 10
                        Almost 6 thousand people became infected with the new 2019-nCoV coronavirus, another 9,2 thousand are under suspicion, according to the latest data from the Chinese authorities. Currently 132 people are dead from the coronavirus. Also known about four cases of cure
                    2. Liam 18 March 2020 13: 55 New
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                      Quote: Avior
                      atypical

                      Very typical. Adjusted for a much higher percentage of the elderly population in Italy compared to China, as well as the reliability of the data provided and the different stages of the epidemic. Here is the picture in China for a more or less similar phase of the epidemic
                      Around the world, the number of patients with the new coronavirus continues to grow. On the morning of February 7, it reached 31 people. More than 482 thousand patients were added per day. The disease claimed the lives of 3 people, still the majority of fatal cases (638) in China. The number of patients recovered has grown to 636,
                    3. Golovan Jack 18 March 2020 14: 06 New
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                      Quote: Liam
                      Around the world, the number of patients with the new coronavirus continues to grow. On the morning of February 7, it reached.

                      Why are you selling rotten meat? Today is March 17th, your “news” is 40 days old laughing
                    4. Avior 18 March 2020 16: 00 New
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                      It is clear that at the initial stage the number of deaths is relatively high, because they die faster than they can be cured.
                      That is, 10 got sick, during the week 1 died, and they will recover another week, and so we get a strange figure
                      The more numbers recovered, the closer the ratio will be towards the global
                    5. Liam 18 March 2020 16: 39 New
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                      Quote: Avior
                      The more numbers recovered, the closer the ratio will be towards the global

                      hi
                      Not a big remark. The world-wide data in this case, by and large, are Chinese data. And there is a difference with% of elderly people compared to Europe and big doubts about the accuracy of their data. Mortality from coronavirus can easily be hidden in the pneumonia columns and other diseases that hurt dead with already weak immunity - oncology, HIV, cardiovascular, asthma, etc.
                      The real% of the dead can be calculated when the EU, the USA and so on recover. Where the "starting conditions" are more or less the same. I think that in countries where the epidemic started later than Italy, the indicators will approach Italian
                    6. Avior 18 March 2020 17: 34 New
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                      So, a conclusion about real mortality can be made only when statistics on the world appear.
                      And then most likely, with an increase in the number of cases, the estimate should increase simply because of the increased load on doctors and hospitals
                      Then it will be possible to conclude whether such precautions were taken correctly or reinsured
                    7. Liam 18 March 2020 17: 44 New
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                      Now the emergency is over and everything is left to save the sick. And the consequences for those who have suffered this virus are very grave. Yesterday, for publication in a scientific journal, Italian doctors published X-ray images of the lungs of a Chinese couple of tourists, which were the first two cases in Italy back in February. The consequences are terrible, the lungs are almost destroyed. For three weeks, the lungs were flooded with pus, blood and other fluids, the circulatory system of the lungs was destroyed. They were technically cured, but will remain disabled. This is definitely not an ordinary flu
        2. Liam 18 March 2020 13: 35 New
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          Quote: Avior
          It can not be

          It takes about 3 weeks to recover from the virus. It takes 3-5 days to die, especially for the elderly with a bunch of other diseases. A massive outbreak in Italy takes 10 days or less. Therefore, in the initial stage of the epidemic, the percentage of deaths is higher in relation to to recovering.
          At the moment, convalescents are those who caught the virus 3-4 weeks ago. Among the dead, those who fell ill a month ago and those who fell ill 3 days ago. These two categories have different "speeds." At the end of the epidemic, they will change places. The dead there will be fractions of a percent
        3. A. Privalov 18 March 2020 13: 45 New
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          Quote: Liam
          The dead will be fractions of a percent

          Let's hope. drinks
        4. Avior 18 March 2020 16: 00 New
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          I agree, I wrote already above
  • tihonmarine 17 March 2020 18: 10 New
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    Quote: asbond
    Something the Germans are overwhelming panic!

    Even from the virus, you can get economic benefits, the main thing is how to present it.
  • Olya Tsako 17 March 2020 17: 28 New
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    People in Europe and America who buy toilet paper in supermarkets are desperate optimists. They think that in two years they will have food.
    1. Kurare 17 March 2020 17: 38 New
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      Quote: Olya Tsako
      People in Europe, America who buy toilet paper in supermarkets ...

      It is very simple to explain: when one coughs, ten need to wash their pants after that. laughing
    2. Harry.km 17 March 2020 17: 43 New
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      Quote: Olya Tsako
      They think that in two years they will have food.

      Olya. Are you able to think of anything else except the "zhrachka"? Paper is needed, wipe your hands, because towels become a bacillus peddler! Study the experience of people, soon the same will be in your country!
      1. Tank hard 17 March 2020 18: 53 New
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        Quote: Harry.km
        Olya. Are you able to think of anything else except about the "zhrachka"?

        Nobody has yet canceled the basic instinct, however ... repeat
        1. Harry.km 17 March 2020 19: 03 New
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          Quote: Tank Hard
          The basic instinct has not yet been canceled

          Is he sexually transmitted? ))))
          1. Tank hard 17 March 2020 19: 12 New
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            Quote: Harry.km
            Is he sexually transmitted?

            Well, I don’t know about you, but they told me that when there is nothing to eat, then the sex drive disappears somewhere ... repeat But I am not an expert, unlike you, I do not pretend, you probably better know ... wink
            1. Harry.km 17 March 2020 19: 17 New
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              Quote: Tank Hard
              Well, I don’t know how you are

              As we are aware of, I would like to know how it is transmitted from you. And are the sexual transmission rates equal and when shaking hands? And then FFP3 will have to use more than one set)))
              1. Tank hard 17 March 2020 19: 32 New
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                Quote: Harry.km
                I would like to know how it is transmitted from you.

                What a prankster you are however ... repeat We are not in “Europe”, we don’t want to share our personal life. stop
    3. Nastia makarova 18 March 2020 07: 40 New
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      they die of hunger, they have no gardens like in Russia
  • Minipig79 17 March 2020 17: 29 New
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    “Capable”, “may” - anyone can issue such “forecasts”. Or maybe the aliens attack, or maybe not ...
  • New Year day 17 March 2020 17: 38 New
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    This is bad, so there are no real achievements in the fight against it
    1. Harry.km 17 March 2020 17: 51 New
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      Quote: Silvestr
      This is bad, so there are no real achievements in the fight against it


      Infa slipped that the Chinese are starting vaccine trials ... the truth on mice or volunteers is not yet known.
      1. Antidote 17 March 2020 18: 47 New
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        It seems to be a vector with 13 options, but oh well, apparently a lot of people started looking for a solution.
        1. Harry.km 17 March 2020 18: 55 New
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          Quote: Antidote
          It seems to be a vector

          I'm not talking about the vector, I'm talking about the Chinese, they officially announced the start of the tests. But here is what I started with so far not in the know. I think that there will not be a double random one for sure))
  • Thrifty 17 March 2020 17: 43 New
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    And then what? An epidemic of a new misfortune? It’s already clear that a lot of diseases like Ebola, HIV, athepatic pneumonia, and this coronovirus are obvious products of those same USA laboratories located all over the world! It would be better if all of these viruses hit the country that pleased them and released them into the world!
    1. mark2 17 March 2020 18: 13 New
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      Who understands and from what is it clear? Are medieval epidemics also products of an evil genius? You are talking nonsense. Diseases such as Ebola and HIV are Ebola and HIV.
      Ebola was before its discovery of HIV, perhaps also. Just widespread after removing moral barriers. Sexual revolutions and moral principles in human relationships.
      To this virus arose in the most that there is no ecologically clean country in the world, where it could hang in cities, even an ax, where they eat everything that is found in the same ecology.
      They would still begin to drink water from the sewer. So there it may be that the coronovirus will run a runny nose.
    2. Departure 17 March 2020 19: 40 New
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      I won’t say anything about HIV with ebola, but different respiratory problems traditionally come from China and usually affects everyone, including and the USA. Why exactly from China, and not from India, for example, is not known exactly, and there are enough factors. Where the ears of influenza grow is checked and one was probably American: the Russian flu of the 77th year, which arrived at the wrong time and behaved like a laboratory strain. The lecturer even told us the name of the American strain, o-orange, if I am not mistaken. And now I open the first link to the supposedly "Russian" (no) seven "and I see that it turns out that these are not Americans, but evil communists against their people https://russian7.ru/post/russkiy-grippa-zagadochnaya-yepidemi/ laughing
  • primaala 17 March 2020 17: 55 New
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    But a pandemic is much more dangerous than an epidemic.
    ==============
    From rearrangement of places of terms, the "sum" does not change.

    Those who developed this virus, obviously, and a vaccine is available.
    Soros, go deeply burrowing and watching ... (idiot piece)
    They opened chemical biological laboratories around the world, and rejoice in human grief.
    1. Antidote 17 March 2020 18: 51 New
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      You should rest from the TV, bring to the pen.
      1. primaala 17 March 2020 18: 59 New
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        Quote: Antidote
        You should rest from the TV, bring to the pen.

        ==================
        Do you think you do NOT need to know !? It’s strange.
        You know, it’s armed.
        1. Antidote 17 March 2020 19: 41 New
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          Do you think you KNOW the source, who invented it?
          Not RENTV told you this? Prokopenko? Americans? Reptilians?
          1. primaala 17 March 2020 19: 48 New
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            Quote: Antidote
            Do you think you KNOW the source, who invented it?
            Not RENTV told you this? Prokopenko? Americans? Reptilians?

            I don’t look, and I never looked at dubious sources. And all the more RanteVe.
  • Dzafdet 17 March 2020 18: 02 New
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    The trouble is that the virus gives mutations. And the Americans let gin out of the bottle ...
  • iouris 17 March 2020 18: 17 New
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    In other words, the EU will be dissolved.
  • VLR
    VLR 17 March 2020 18: 19 New
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    Adequate doctors, whose voices are clogged by the cries of alarmists, claim that coronavirus infection is a "paper tiger." Children (who are easily knocked over by any other viral infections) are absolutely too tough for her, she only touches people under 50 on a tangent, and represents a real danger only for elderly patients with a bunch of serious concomitant diseases. That is, to humanity, as a biological species, it does not threaten in the slightest degree - unlike the plague, smallpox
    or cholera. Coronavirus infection is new, therefore it is quite contagious, but it will stop by itself when immunity to it appears in at least 50 percent of people. And then everyone will forget about her. It will become ordinary and no more dangerous than all other viral ARI, of which there are hundreds of varieties. Coronavirus is already walking around the globe and will take its 50 percent in any case - at least disinfect everything with water, at least with holy water, even with a tambourine dance. And all these quarantines, in fact, only delay the process of formation of the immune layer. It is because of them that the epidemic can drag on for several years, instead of ending in a few months.
    1. Alex Justice 18 March 2020 10: 06 New
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      And I think coronavirus infection is too tough for smokers. At such disgusting in the lungs settles.
  • Vasyan1971 17 March 2020 18: 24 New
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    But creating a vaccine will help limit the pandemic

    Does a “limited” pandemic remain a pandemic? And how does she generally look and be called in this case? Or is it such a fashion now - to push “pandemics” everywhere?
  • Pavel57 17 March 2020 18: 25 New
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    For 2 years of a pandemic, you can correct the geopolitical map of the world.
  • Million 17 March 2020 18: 57 New
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    In our city, it seems, there are no cases, but the store shelves are empty quickly
  • RitaNik 17 March 2020 18: 58 New
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    Recently I read an article where the psychologist explained the fearlessness of Russians before the coronavirus. I liked the comment below it: Russians have only two diseases - garbage and Tryndets. Bullshit itself will pass, and Tryndets is incurable.
    I wish you all strong immunity!
  • Arslan Ali 17 March 2020 18: 58 New
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    I believe that while there are no epidemics in countries, talking about a pandemic is premature.
    In some country have declared an epidemic?
    The coronavirus epidemic began in China, then the virus spread to other countries, but did not become an epidemic yet, but it became global. (pandemic). That is how many politicians formulate a pandemic, among them there are practically no professional virologists. For them, a pandemic is not a global epidemic, but the territory where the disease spreads. Therefore, misunderstandings arise.
    1. Arslan Ali 17 March 2020 19: 02 New
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      "limited" pandemic
      No such, there is a pandemic limitation.
    2. A. Privalov 17 March 2020 19: 13 New
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      Quote: Arslan Ali
      In some country have declared an epidemic?

      Coronavirus reached one hundred and fifty countries of the world.
      The first seven leading countries with the most infections are China, Italy, Iran, Spain, South Korea, Germany and France. It should be noted that this list has not changed for a long time - only the order of countries changes depending on the number of infected. In China at the moment the number of cases is 81.058, in Italy - 27.980, in Iran - 14.991, in Spain - 9.942, in South Korea - 8.320, in Germany - 7.588, in France - 6.664.
      The situation in Spain continues to worsen. If the authorities reported that from March 15 to 16 a thousand new infected were detected, then already over the past 182 hours their number has grown by almost two thousand. 491 patients died per day, and a total of an illness took the lives of XNUMX citizens of Spain. Nearly six hundred people are now in serious condition.

      At 14:00 on March 17, the number of people infected in the world reached 183372.
      The disease took the life of 7167 patients, 79731 people recovered.

      PS To date, 116 cases have been registered in Russia.
      1. Arslan Ali 17 March 2020 19: 19 New
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        It was a question in a comment, to which I gave an answer below, about a pandemic.
  • Arslan Ali 17 March 2020 19: 10 New
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    He seems to be more of an administrator than a scientist. A lot of words, "scary" numbers and NO specifics.
    Yes, I completely agree.
  • Evgeny Ivanov_5 17 March 2020 19: 12 New
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    This is how much the dollar will cost by the end of the pandemic ????? A piece for a buck?
    1. Nastia makarova 18 March 2020 07: 45 New
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      dollar is flying into the abyss
  • Cowbra 17 March 2020 19: 17 New
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    ... and GretaTumberg can finally laughing
    If you comply with quarantine measures - this is not a threat at all.
  • Simfy 17 March 2020 21: 28 New
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    on the topic of the virus ... in Crimea there is not a single case, but yesterday all state were quarantined. universities (although all kindergartens and schools operate in normal mode) ... now students will fly-go home for 3 weeks, and this is the floor of Russia, LDNR, and the CIS countries ... and in three weeks they will return ...
    and now the question of the task?) where are more likely to become infected? and what stupid people make such decisions?
  • The comment was deleted.
  • Pacifist with AK 17 March 2020 22: 50 New
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    Let's look at the coronavirus from a philosophical point of view: the almost Equal Biblical Great Equalizer has come! Everyone is sick - poor and rich, beautiful and terrible, smart and stupid, white and black, democrats and totalitarianists, atheists and believers .... Reminder of sins? Clicking on the nose of arrogant people? How to know ....
  • hohol95 17 March 2020 23: 15 New
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    Such an assumption was made by the director of the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) Lothar Wheeler.

    He would have better stated why the swine flu vaccine cost 250 million euros!
    They scared everyone with swine flu, they scared him, and he took it and disappeared later! After the sale of the British emergency vaccine. They bought a vaccine, but there’s no more flu ...
    So now ...
  • Warrior MorePhoto 18 March 2020 00: 54 New
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    We are on the eve of the great economic depression of the 21st century.
    Say this does not apply to the topic of the article? Yes, but ....
  • Klingon 18 March 2020 01: 03 New
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    - all that’s left is to turn off the electricity and now you have a real APOKALIPSIS wassat
  • Pandiurin 18 March 2020 01: 30 New
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    Quote: asbond
    60-70 ٪ - a lot! If we take mortality in the region of 2-4% of the sick (now the ratio of sick and dead is approximately the same) - we get about 1-2% of the total population of the planet! This is just an unrealistic big number! Something the Germans are overwhelming with panic!


    Now there are already at least two variants of the virus, stiff and with milder symptoms - the course of the disease.
    Due to the fact that the mild variant people can carry on their feet or confused with the common cold, the mild variant of the virus will spread much faster and give new mutations in which even lighter variants will have the same advantage in spreading. Therefore, the majority of those who get coronovirus will be ill with its light version where mortality is lower.
    Of course, nuances are possible, but this is the most linearly predicted option.

    Then the Germans predict 70% in TWO years. During this time, the most effective treatment options by traditional means will be developed. There will be several different vaccine options from different farm companies. So mortality will be lower than now.

    The worst thing is the explosive increase in the number of cases at this stage. Then medical resources will not be enough for patients with a severe course of the disease. The lack of intensive care for such patients is equivalent to death.
  • The comment was deleted.
  • Military Builder 18 March 2020 10: 16 New
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    Klingon (Úlfar)
    - all that’s left is to turn off the electricity and now you have a real APOKALIPSIS

    no, electricity is the last century, now it’s enough to turn off mobile communications. and all is a vacuum
  • Gennady Fomkin 18 March 2020 14: 36 New
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    A crisis wave has come to Germany, that's what they remembered about the virus, what will be the problem in the economy?
    1. A. Privalov 18 March 2020 17: 04 New
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      Judging by what is happening in the world, very soon, neither you, nor me, nor anyone else on this site will be more worried about the problems of Germany. We will each be busy with our problems to such an extent that strangers will become of little interest to us.
  • Gennady Fomkin 18 March 2020 14: 39 New
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    We can assume that Bundestag's hand sanitizers will be depleted during this week. "Ralf Schuler on Twitter
    “Im Bundestag wird Desinfektionsmittel knapp. Eine Rundmail an die Abgeordneten ging heute an alle Büros @BILD_Politik ”
  • Gennady Fomkin 18 March 2020 14: 40 New
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    German folk remedies:

    In Munich, a Bosnian, 45 years old, sprayed his Chinese peer neighbor on the landing with a disinfectant. At the same time, he shouted several times about the "coronavirus", and then threatened that he would "shorten her head" laughing
    Coronavirus News: Dritter Corona-Toter in Deutschland, Lufthansa streicht 23 Flüge
    Coronavirus News: Dritter Corona-Toter in Deutschland, Lufthansa streicht 23 Flüge
    Das Coronavirus breitet sich weiter aus. Alle Updates gibt's im BILD-Live-Ticker.