Germany predicts two years of coronavirus pandemic to the world

Propagating in waves, the coronavirus can last for several years. True, the propagation speed of these waves is difficult to calculate.

Such an assumption was made by the director of the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) Lothar Wheeler.

According to the German scientist, the coronavirus pandemic will last another two years. And even the creation of a vaccine will have little effect on the number of cases. But creating a vaccine will help limit the pandemic, so the sooner it is created, the better.

Lothar Wheeler suggests that over the next two years, approximately 60-70 percent of the world's population will be ill with coronavirus, after which humanity will develop immunity against this infection.

The scientist believes that the duration of the pandemic will depend on a complex of factors, including the number of cases, the development of immunity to COVID-19, and the duration of the vaccine.

Wheeler does not undertake to predict the level of mortality during the coronavirus pandemic. He did not rule out the possibility that the restrictive measures introduced by many countries to limit the spread of infection would not cancel until the pandemic ends.

The Koch Institute is considered one of the leading research institutions in Germany, administered by the country's Ministry of Health.

Comments

[Honest Citizen]

Ungrateful thing is to make forecasts. Moreover, now there is still only a pandemic and not an epidemic.
But we will see

[16112014nk]

But a pandemic is much more dangerous than an epidemic.

[Kurare]

Quote: 16112014nk

But a pandemic is much more dangerous than an epidemic.

The difference is "only" in scale. The epidemic is local and the pandemic is global.

[Misha Honest]

Quote: Kurare

The difference is "only" in scale. The epidemic is local, but the pandemic is global

This is the flu, do not look ... And flu has been walking around the planet for decades or even centuries.

[syndicalist]

Scientists do not yet know what it is. Only the first cautious assessments are made.

[Voyager]

The pandemic is just the final, most powerful stage of the epidemic. Nowhere else to go.

[Honest Citizen]

Well, now how many sick people are there in the world? And how much is Germany.
I believe that while there are no epidemics in countries, talking about a pandemic is premature.

[Voyager]

Are you sure it's premature? Me not.

[syndicalist]

There is a statistical model built on Chinese data. The first 2-3 weeks the disease does not manifest itself in the infected. With this in mind, the pandemic is already in full swing. If you wait for at least 5% of the population to become infected, this will mean that almost everyone is infected.

[Nastia makarova]

and everyone will die?

[syndicalist]

Where everything was started, the mortality rate is about 5%. Where they have decided to "overdo it," there is still less than 1%. So far, the worst death / recovery ratio in Italy is 0.85, which is almost fifty / fifty. Judging by the fact that our authorities really want to hold a "vote" on the Constitution, shap-handed moods will continue to prevail, which means that the percentage will be rather big.

[Nastia makarova]

it's all artificial hysteria

[Sergey39]

Coronavirus is just an excuse for a long overdue redivision of the world. And how much this will last from the coronavirus is independent.

[Arslan Ali]

The coronavirus epidemic began in China, then the virus spread to other countries, but did not become an epidemic yet, but it became global. (pandemic).

[Shuttle]

Quote: Arslan Ali

The coronavirus epidemic began in China, then the virus spread to other countries, but did not become an epidemic yet, but it became global. (pandemic).

How is it that it turns out that the epidemic did not become an epidemic?

[Aaron Zawi]

The economy in the world will crash.

[Cottodraton]

It should have crashed a long time since someone cut the typewriter at full power.

[Kisa]

this will be interesting to observe. most people do not have savings all over the world live one day. if everything is quarantined, the services and entertainment sector will extend how much 70% of humanity will last .... for a stew like in the 30s during a depression ....
here in a week it is difficult to predict. in Italy, Spain, the infection is gaining momentum of 300-400 people a day ....

[Maki Avellevich]

Quote: kitty

this will be interesting to observe. most people do not have savings all over the world live one day.

what is the point of saving if during the crisis they depreciate?

[Nastia makarova]

will not depreciate !!! there will be no demand for goods

[Nastia makarova]

garden to help survive in Russia

[Harry.km]

Quote: Honest Citizen

Ungrateful thing is to make forecasts. Moreover, now there is still only a pandemic and not an epidemic.
But we will see

It is not a thankful job to evaluate expert forecasts without even understanding the definitions!
According to the Great Russian Encyclopedia, epidemic - this is the spread of an infectious disease that significantly exceeds the level of normal morbidity in a given area.
Pandemic - This is an epidemic characterized by the spread of an infectious disease to the entire country, the territory of neighboring states, and sometimes many countries of the world.

[Honest Citizen]

It is not a thankful job to evaluate expert forecasts without even understanding the definitions!

I repeat.
Well, now how many sick people are there in the world? And how much is Germany.
I believe that while there are no epidemics in countries, talking about a pandemic is premature.
In some country have declared an epidemic? Perhaps in China, I won’t argue, I just don’t know. But in all other countries they didn’t seem to be announced.

[Harry.km]

Quote: Honest Citizen

I believe that while there are no epidemics in countries, talking about a pandemic is premature.

Dear, you apparently are a classified microbiologist about whom the WHO and the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation do not know.

[Honest Citizen]

Alas for me, I am far from microbiology. But common sense suggests that while there is no epidemic, talking about a pandemic is premature.

[Harry.km]

Quote: Honest Citizen

common sense suggests that while there is no epidemic, talking about a pandemic is premature.

You are right in that))) But not in our case ... The epidemic threshold has already been passed. It is not possible to localize the infection, there is nothing to treat. In the Russian Federation, everything is just beginning ... After 2 weeks of sick (officially) there will be several thousand (I am still optimistic). There are no masks in pharmacies. We will eat arbidol)))

[Gray brother]

Quote: Harry.km

The epidemic threshold has long been passed.

Where exactly?
Do not fill your head with nonsense, the word "pandemic" defines only the fact that the disease has crossed the borders of countries and continents, while not necessarily in all these countries there must be an epidemic, there simply are sick and that's it.

[Harry.km]

Quote: Gray Brother

Quote: Harry.km

The epidemic threshold has long been passed.

Where exactly?
Do not fill your head with nonsense, the word "pandemic" defines only the fact that the disease has crossed the borders of countries and continents, while not necessarily in all these countries there must be an epidemic, there simply are sick and that's it.

I won't even argue, reading you I understand that we live from different countries. In my country, the government and the president recognize the pandemic and set up operational headquarters. Well, in yours ... and in yours they continue to struggle with the "libroids"))))

[Gray brother]

Quote: Harry.km

In my country, the government and the president recognize the pandemic and set up operational headquarters. Well, in yours ... and in yours they continue to fight the "libroids"))))

I am happy for your country. However, you never understood what I wrote.
Are you olga trolls on the network fronts contused chtol?

[Voyager]

Arbidol will not only not help, but it will also harm your body.

[Harry.km]

Quote: Voyager

Arbidol

Sarcasm! )))

[Voyager]

My cant, not recognized Last time, all on serious

[Gray brother]

Quote: Voyager

Arbidol will not only not help, but it will also harm your body.

All immunostimulants that are not in the form of injections are bullshit.

[major147]

Quote: Voyager

Arbidol will not only not help, but it will also harm your body.

This is because they are not being treated correctly. And you need this:

Hundreds of Hindu believers threw a party on March 14 at which they drank cow urine in the hope that it would protect them from the coronavirus. A group called Akhil Bharat Hindu Mahasabha (All India Hindu Union) held a party on Saturday in Delhi, the capital of the country, where they drank urine in the hope of protecting themselves from the virus. The event was attended by about 200 people, and the organizers are going to hold similar meetings in other areas of India, where 84 cases of the disease were recorded, as a result of which two people died.
One of the men present said that he had been drinking cow urine for 21 years, taking a bath with cow dung, and had never been ill.

Upload photos !?

[Tank hard]

Quote: Harry.km

There are no masks in pharmacies.

Masks do not help ... Is it not so? And respirators are in workwear stores.

[Harry.km]

Quote: Tank Hard

Masks do not help ... Is it not so?

Not this way! The mask helps not to infect someone ...

[Tank hard]

Quote: Harry.km

The mask helps not to infect someone ...

For how long?

[Harry.km]

Quote: Tank Hard

For how long?

I would love to answer your question, but I would like specifics, tell you about what protection class? If the third grade, then long enough!

[Tank hard]

Quote: Harry.km

I would love to answer your question, but I would like specifics, tell you about what protection class? If the third grade, then long enough!

Are you such a connoisseur of protection that you want to tell me that class protections exist ?:
FFP1 (4 MPC) - up to 80%
FFP2 (12 MPC) - up to 94%
FFP3 (50 MPC) - up to 99%
And what protection class does the ordinary mask that was sold in the pharmacy belong to? Citizen expert.

[Harry.km]

Quote: Tank Hard

And what protection class does the ordinary mask that was sold in the pharmacy belong to?

All types of masks (respirators) are sold in pharmacies. There is also a third class, the price before the pandemic was 100-150 rubles. How many now I don’t know ... And I don’t know what "ordinary mask" is for you either. Available without an exhalation valve, looking like a rag, but in protection class 2 or 3. Enough for 8 hours. The cost was 25 rubles.

[Tank hard]

Quote: Harry.km

And what an "ordinary mask" is for you, I also don't know

With an expert, I, apparently, was in a hurry ...

Quote: Harry.km

All types of masks (respirators) are sold in pharmacies. There is a third class, the price before the pandemic was 100-150 rubles

What are your packaged pharmacies. In our city, only in specialized stores there was some variety and it was a couple of months ago ... There was almost no third "class" of protection at all, except through the Internet, and then the prices are higher than those that you indicated, so it's cheaper to purchase a PMM mask (type BRIZ-4301M) + filters (the cheapest, + review, + mask (will not fog up), + checked by deed). But you will look cool in it (at least for now). But this is better than 8 (or even 3, in real life) hours.

Quote: Harry.km

Enough for 8 hours.

[Harry.km]

Quote: Tank Hard

What are your packaged pharmacies?

I admit, I also generalized about pharmacies)) I saw, before, like stale goods, of the 2nd class without a valve. Now there is nothing at all. But BREEZE is cool!))))

Quote: Tank Hard

But you will look cool in this (at least for now).

Somehow it was necessary for people to appear in GP-5 ...

Quote: Tank Hard

But this is better than 8 (or even 3, in real) hours.

It’s in the manuals and in accordance with GOST 8 hours, but it wasn’t necessary to check how it was in real life.

[Tank hard]

Quote: Harry.km

But BREEZE is cool!))))

I have a BREEZE for my family, and PMK 3 itself, in excellent condition from storage, has a complete set, but walking in this now will be somewhat defiant.

[Harry.km]

Quote: Tank Hard

PMK 3

A good alternative to ZM)) After a couple of weeks, I think the acquisition issue will become very relevant))) But this is not a panacea ... the incubation period is from 3 to 24 days, the possibility of transmission 24 hours after infection has been proven. Contagiousness 3-6 (normal flu 2-3) is a lot. Ours officially recognize 1% of the asymptomatic course, and the Chinese say that 50% of people under the age of 14 carry symptoms without symptoms. So, in my opinion, the prospects are very vague ...

[Tank hard]

Quote: Harry.km

A good alternative to ZM)) After a couple of weeks, I think the acquisition issue will become very relevant))) But this is not a panacea ...

Yes, sarcasm is, despite all these gas masks and respirator packs, all this is useless in our reality, well, you can’t isolate yourself for up to 3 months. For this, strengthening, a group of trained comrades, all-round defense, stocks ... All this is not possible in our conditions, gas masks and products will not help rot in vain ... Calm down for everyone.

[Harry.km]

Quote: Tank Hard

all this is useless in our reality

+ 1)))
Yes, a serious thing, but in the size of all mankind it is absolutely not deadly)))
Just arrived from stores, there’s no buckwheat in a magnet since lunch ... Here is such a calico))

[Nastia makarova]

and toilet paper bought a year in advance?)))

[Harry.km]

Quote: Nastia Makarova

and toilet paper bought a year in advance?)))

So far with this, we at least have everything in order. But rumors are already circulating that somewhere, at some wholesale centers, the goods are no longer there. Although the general mass of the people makes fun of those who "hoarse" for the year ahead ... Although they may be right )))

[Nastia makarova]

it's all because of human stupidity

[lucul]

The epidemic threshold has long been passed. It is not possible to localize the infection, there is nothing to treat

Why ? Let me remind you - in the 20th century there were outbreaks and plague and cholera and anthrax and all of them were quickly localized and defeated in literally weeks. Now what? Have forgotten how to fight? AND ? Or just someone really needs this coronavirus?
By the way, according to rumors, many who have recovered from coronavirus already have infertility - but again, this is rumor ...

[Nastia makarova]

they got it already with masks)))) there is no and it is not necessary, it is better to buy paper and buckwheat /)))))

[ghby]

Quote: Harry.km

We will eat arbidol)))

There is no sense in him, how many do not eat

[Kurare]

Quote: Honest Citizen

But common sense suggests that while there is no epidemic, talking about a pandemic is premature.

By announcing an epidemic in a single country and a pandemic on a global scale, scientists thus admit that they cannot stop the spread of the "Wuhan Infection". When an epidemic / pandemic is declared, it is possible to allocate large funds for, for example, the development of a vaccine, moreover, several institutions at once.

Your common sense is right and wrong at the same time. If you do NOT declare urgency, you can simply overload the health care system, even one that is developed as in Germany, and then there will be panic and a complete collapse with all the consequences.

At the same time, there are precedents when a pandemic was declared (swine flu), and it came out - zilch. More precisely, billions of dollars / euros were very nicely "mastered" by the pharmaceutical industry, and the pandemic turned out to be just another flu.

[Machito]

I did not notice much excitement and panic in Moscow stores, but stood in line for food for more than an hour. From the shelves really dared toilet paper, soap and napkins. They are simply not there. Muscovites are completely calm, but they are making reserves in full. Apparently the stores have good revenue.

[DymOk_v_dYmke]

Quote: Bearded

From the shelves really dared toilet paper, soap and napkins. They are simply not there. Muscovites are completely calm, but they are making reserves in full.

Wonderful. It was necessary to sweep away alcohol-containing drinks.
And they are preserved well and have healing properties .

[New Year day]

Quote: Honest Citizen

now there is only a pandemic and not an epidemic.

Pandemic is bigger than epidemic

[Gray brother]

Quote: Silvestr

Pandemic is bigger than epidemic

In a geographical sense, yes, but in terms of the number of cases it’s not necessary. It depends on what kind of epidemic.
For example, in 2017 - 2018, in the USA, 78 thousand people squinted during the flu epidemic, and got sick a hundred times more.
Not compare yet

[knn54]

He seems to be more of an administrator than a scientist. Lots of words, "terrible" numbers and NO specifics.

[Olya Tsako]

Why watch when around us nihilistic stupid nonsense and obscurantism.
In St. Petersburg at the Smolensk cemetery is the chapel of Ksenia of Petersburg, a particularly revered local saint. There are always a lot of people here. The place is called prayer. I get to worship in the chapel tightly. Not a single face in the mask. People go to the icon in a row, kiss it - I have time to notice that some wipe the glass with an antiseptic cloth, but few. Then they kiss the stone sarcophagus of the saint in the same manner. It is quiet, calm, warm, singing in beautiful voices - it seems as if a dangerous virus is raging in parallel reality.
I understand the tradition of kissing the cross (and the Orthodox now have a week of the Cross, but this is a direct way of spreading the coronavirus. And even that the question of closing churches for quarantine is not being discussed. Earlier, the St. curtail the worship of relics because of the pandemic. And the archpriest of the Kazan Cathedral said that the virus cannot spread in the temple, because "the Lord will heal everyone."
And THIS is all over Russia.
From this, cities died out in the "plague years".
In the courtyard of the 21st century.

[tihonmarine]

Quote: Olya Tsako

Not a single face in the mask. People go to the icon in a row, kiss her - I have time to notice

You need to go to God with an open face, and with a closed one to girls with reduced social responsibility. Well, kissing an icon is a believer’s business. I personally do not kiss the icon.

[Olya Tsako]

Each keyboard advisor imagines himself a gross strategy, seeing the battle from the side.
Who came to the Temple-kisses. This is a tradition.

[Tank hard]

Quote: Olya Tsako

Each keyboard advisor thinks of himself as a social strategy

Self-critical.

[dauria]

You need to go to God with an open face,

Unfortunately, doctors have no right to send you to God for treatment. Will babysit, falling from their feet. Torn between the urgent (and not only the flu) and flooded. But what about? He will pray for recovery, and for peace. No earnings left.
Is it really so hard to understand that this flu is not terrible, but the unpreparedness of any medicine in any country for such an influx of patients? The Chinese should not erect a monument to the heroes-cosmonauts, not the military, but to those nurses who did not crawl out of the hospital for days. Without relatives, without children, without taking off overalls.

[Fishery]

their Mother of God will hide with a cloak))

[Paul Siebert]

New decree of the Ministry of Health of a tolerant EU:
"During the spread of the coronavirus, more than two in one bed do not get together!"

[Barmaleyka]

Quote: Honest Citizen

that now there’s only a pandemic and not an epidemic.

you would first find out the meaning of the terms and then you were in a hurry to leave the FIRST comment

[Tank hard]

Quote: Barmaleyka

you would first find out the meaning of the terms and then you were in a hurry to leave the FIRST comment

But what about the stars?

[Grim Reaper]

Quote: Tank Hard

Quote: Barmaleyka

you would first find out the meaning of the terms and then you were in a hurry to leave the FIRST comment

But what about the stars?

Here on this "scorching" vyunosh, nerds and "merlikan spies".

[Tank hard]

Quote: Grim Reaper

Here on this "scorching" vyunosh, nerds and "merlican spies"

It is what it is.

[Seregarodionov]

panicdemia

[Yaro Polk]

Pandemic (Greek πανδημία “the whole nation”) is an unusually strong epidemic characterized by the spread of an infectious disease throughout the country, neighboring states, and sometimes many countries of the world ...

[Yaro Polk]

Thanks to the filthy mattresses (sarcasm)

[venik]

Quote: Honest Citizen

Moreover, now there is still only a pandemic and not an epidemic.

========
And you actually know that. WHAT does a "pandemic" differ from an "epidemic" ??? So: "epidemic - this is when an outbreak of the disease is actively and uncontrollably spreading in the territory of one country. AND pandemic - this is when a disease is raging in different parts of the world."!!!
Well, what is worse ???

[Maz]

Funny, in this situation, only Russia is in a 100% gain. Firstly, all anti-Russian sanctions will collapse in the near future, since the EU will need to survive. Secondly, Nord Stream-2 can now be completed without regard to US sanctions, because against the backdrop of the general economic crisis, all US threats look like a "child horror story."

[north 2]

an epidemic is already a known disease that has spread locally and against which there is a vaccine
and there are methods to treat it. A pandemic is a disease still unknown. which has spread globally throughout the world, which until now was unknown and against which there are no drugs
no methods to treat it. So a pandemic is a worse epidemic

[cniza]

He did not rule out the possibility that the restrictive measures introduced by many countries to limit the spread of infection would not cancel until the pandemic ends.

Then humanity will die out of hunger and cold ...

[NF68]

Many stores in Germany do not find kitchen napkins or toilet paper. Shelves with some products are half empty or even empty. Even if this pandemic lasts less than two years, then you can’t store everything in advance. But the people are still fooling around.

[A. Privalov]

People are scared. They can be understood. They are buying up not in order to gain for two years, but so that for some time it would be possible to stay at home without any problems. At least until everything gains at least some stability and it becomes clear what happens next. I dare to suggest that not today or tomorrow you will see this phenomenon at home. Alas...

[NF68]

Quote: A. Privalov

People are scared. They can be understood. They are buying up not in order to gain for two years, but so that for some time it would be possible to stay at home without any problems. At least until everything gains at least some stability and it becomes clear what happens next. I dare to suggest that not today or tomorrow you will see this phenomenon at home. Alas...

Quote: A. Privalov

People are scared. They can be understood. They are buying up not in order to gain for two years, but so that for some time it would be possible to stay at home without any problems. At least until everything gains at least some stability and it becomes clear what happens next. I dare to suggest that not today or tomorrow you will see this phenomenon at home. Alas...

And someone is not making bad money on this.

[A. Privalov]

Quote: NF68

And someone is not making bad money on this.

Well, the deal, for now, didn’t get to the giveaway.

[Seregarodionov]

get a subsistence allowance for six months and today, from a TV platform, the wise guy added cash for the same period

[Nastia makarova]

let no one sit at home))) is to quit work and live on what?

[A. Privalov]

You are mistaken, dear. You won’t sit at home if quarantine is announced; only a couple of weeks will remain.
Take a look around. Not in such countries far from you for not observing the quarantine by a healthy person 1000 Euro fine., Patient, 7 years in prison. If survives.

[Nastia makarova]

yeah, everyone will die, do not say stupid things, all this nonsense about the coronovirus got

[A. Privalov]

Nastya, believe me, I sincerely wish that this scourge did not touch you!

[Nastia makarova]

I wish you the same

[Grim Reaper]

Yes, I was surprised today to observe the half-empty shelves of Auchan. And madness in the eyes of people. Buying up "at least something" by carts.
The paranoia virus is much more dangerous than some sort of crowned virus.
ECB.

[Operator]

The greatest danger of coronavirus in another is its ability to mutate and re-infect survivors with greater mortality and immunity to previously developed vaccines.

[Never mind]

Scientists have already refuted no re-infection.

[Operator]

I'm talking about re-infection with a new strain of coronavirus (after a mutation in humans).

[Departure]

A quote from Wikipedia about the Spanish flu epidemic for you to think about; "Many of the victims of the flu were young and healthy people in the 20-40 age group (usually only children, the elderly, pregnant women and people with certain medical conditions are at high risk)." why do you think?

[Operator]

What does the specificity of the Spanish-18 lesion have to do with the specifics of the COVIR-19 lesion?

And what can you know now about the specifics of the defeat of COVIR-20?

[asbond]

60-70 ٪ - a lot! If we take mortality in the region of 2-4% of the sick (now the ratio of sick and dead is approximately the same) - we get about 1-2% of the total population of the planet! This is just an unrealistic big number! Something the Germans are overwhelming with panic!

[Paranoid50]

Quote: asbond

the Germans are overwhelming with panic!

This, by the way, is not the Germans whose head-mattress just wanted to buy the future vaccine?

[Kurare]

Quote: asbond

60-70 ٪ - a lot!

This is exactly the level after which the epidemic, or now a pandemic, is beginning to fade. There are a sufficient number of ill and who simply can not further infect someone.

[New Year day]

Quote: asbond

Something the Germans are overwhelming panic!

Infection schedule

\ World indicators

[A. Privalov]

I don’t see anything particularly out of the ordinary.
For example, the number of cases of coronavirus in Italy grew like this:

20.02 - 3 people
21.02 - 19
22.02 - 62
23.02 - 150
24.02 - 229
25.02 - 288
26.02 - 378
27.02 - 650
28.02 - 888
29.02 - 1.128
01.03 - 1.694
02.03 - 2.036
03.03 - 2.502
04.03 - 3.089
05.03 - 3.858
06.03 - 4.636
07.03 - 5.883
08.03 - 7.375
...

The number of infections in Italy in the last day amounted to 2470,
In total, 27980 were infected, 2158 patients died, and 2740 recovered.

[Avior]

. 2158 patients died, and 2740 recovered.

Mortality at 40 percent ?!
Are there any errors in the numbers?

[A. Privalov]

Sorry, you were wrong in the calculations. Try again.

[Avior]

I made a mistake?
If 2740 people died for the 2158 survivors, then (2158: (2158 + 2740)) • 100% = 44% mortality.
Of almost two people, one dies, the second recovers.
This is something wrong with the numbers, I can’t believe in such mortality

[A. Privalov]

The mortality rate is calculated by the ratio of the number of cases with the number of deaths.
2158: 27980 X 100 = 7,71%
A lot, too, but this is due to the large risk group in Italy. There are a lot of elderly people.

[Avior]

The mortality rate is calculated by the ratio of the number of cases with the number of deaths.

why's that? It is not known how the disease will end, some of the sick will still die, and you think by the number of sick. It does not carry any information; it only makes sense after the pandemic is over.
the percentage is calculated according to the results of the disease, that is, for those who have recovered or died from it, according to their ratio
such a ratio as you have in the numbers nowhere, the usual - for one dead ten recovered
https://multimedia.scmp.com/widgets/china/wuhanvirus/#

[A. Privalov]

To understand: The first column of the table is the age group, the second is the distribution of deaths by age group, the third is mortality (percentage of deaths among those infected).

According to the data shown in the table, in Italy there are no deaths from coronavirus among those under the age of 30. Only 30% of deaths occur in the age group of 49 - 0,7 years; they have a probability of mortality from coronavirus - 02 - 03%.

Age group 50 - 69 years - 11,2% of deaths, average mortality - 1,0 - 3,2%.

The highest mortality rate in the elderly group. Therefore, every tenth infected person dies due to coronavirus if he is over 70 years old. In this group, mortality is 11%.

Moreover, 60% of the dead are men, 40% are women.

As of March 17, the highest mortality rate was recorded in Italy. There, 7,71% of patients died from coronavirus. This is followed by Iran (6,11%). Spain (4,5%) and China (3,99%). In other countries, mortality is noticeably lower - less than 2,5 percent.

[Avior]

I do not see any connection with the topic
The older, the higher the risk everywhere, not only in Italy
But this ratio as a whole for all groups together between the recovered and the dead is almost one to one, nowhere
Therefore, I was surprised
It turns out, according to the results of the disease, half recovers, half dies.
Obviously what is wrong, this cannot be

[A. Privalov]

Quote: Avior

Obviously what is wrong, this cannot be

Fact: In Italy, on March 17.03.20, 28 nearly XNUMX thousand people fell ill,
the total number of deaths exceeded 2,1 thousand
with 2,7 thousand cured.
What else bothers you?

[Avior]

And you are not confused by the atypical ratio between the recovered and the dead?
Perhaps the numbers will change further as the recoveries grow, but so far they look strange

[A. Privalov]

This is not a typical disease at all. So, you can evaluate only what is. Italy is a completely normal and developed country. They neither need to hide nor exaggerate.

[Liam]

Figures in China on January 29 (at the beginning of the epidemic).



CORONAVIRUS
News per night: The death toll from coronavirus in China reaches 132
January 29 202005: 10
Almost 6 thousand people became infected with the new 2019-nCoV coronavirus, another 9,2 thousand are under suspicion, according to the latest data from the Chinese authorities. Currently 132 people are dead from the coronavirus. Also known about four cases of cure

[Liam]

Quote: Avior

atypical

Very typical. Adjusted for a much higher percentage of the elderly population in Italy compared to China, as well as the reliability of the data provided and the different stages of the epidemic. Here is the picture in China for a more or less similar phase of the epidemic
Around the world, the number of patients with the new coronavirus continues to grow. On the morning of February 7, it reached 31 people. More than 482 thousand patients were added per day. The disease claimed the lives of 3 people, still the majority of fatal cases (638) in China. The number of patients recovered has grown to 636,

[Golovan Jack]

Quote: Liam

Around the world, the number of patients with the new coronavirus continues to grow. On the morning of February 7, it reached...

Why do you sell rotten meat? Today is March 17, your "news" for 40 days already

[Avior]

It is clear that at the initial stage the number of deaths is relatively high, because they die faster than they can be cured.
That is, 10 got sick, during the week 1 died, and they will recover another week, and so we get a strange figure
The more numbers recovered, the closer the ratio will be towards the global

[Liam]

Quote: Avior

The more numbers recovered, the closer the ratio will be towards the global

Not a big remark. The world-wide data in this case, by and large, are Chinese data. And there is a difference with% of elderly people compared to Europe and big doubts about the accuracy of their data. Mortality from coronavirus can easily be hidden in the pneumonia columns and other diseases that hurt dead with already weak immunity - oncology, HIV, cardiovascular, asthma, etc.
The real% of deaths can be calculated when the EU, the USA, etc. get sick. Where the "starting conditions" are more or less the same. I think that in the countries in which the epidemic started later in Italy, the indicators will approach the Italian

[Avior]

So, a conclusion about real mortality can be made only when statistics on the world appear.
And then most likely, with an increase in the number of cases, the estimate should increase simply because of the increased load on doctors and hospitals
Then it will be possible to conclude whether such precautions were taken correctly or reinsured

[Liam]

Now the emergency is over and everything is left to save the sick. And the consequences for those who have suffered this virus are very grave. Yesterday, for publication in a scientific journal, Italian doctors published X-ray images of the lungs of a Chinese couple of tourists, which were the first two cases in Italy back in February. The consequences are terrible, the lungs are almost destroyed. For three weeks, the lungs were flooded with pus, blood and other fluids, the circulatory system of the lungs was destroyed. They were technically cured, but will remain disabled. This is definitely not an ordinary flu

[Liam]

Quote: Avior

It can not be

It takes about 3 weeks to recover from the virus. It takes 3-5 days to die, especially for the elderly with a bunch of other diseases. A massive outbreak in Italy takes 10 days or less. Therefore, in the initial stage of the epidemic, the percentage of deaths is higher in relation to to recovering.
At the moment, convalescents are those who contracted the virus 3-4 weeks ago. Among the dead are those who fell ill a month ago and those who fell ill 3 days ago. These two categories have different "speeds". At the end of the epidemic, they will switch places. will be a fraction of a percent

[A. Privalov]

Quote: Liam

The dead will be fractions of a percent

Let's hope.

[Avior]

I agree, I wrote already above

[tihonmarine]

Quote: asbond

Something the Germans are overwhelming panic!

Even from the virus, you can get economic benefits, the main thing is how to present it.

[Olya Tsako]

People in Europe and America who buy toilet paper in supermarkets are desperate optimists. They think that in two years they will have food.

[Kurare]

Quote: Olya Tsako

People in Europe, America who buy toilet paper in supermarkets ...

It is very simple to explain: when one coughs, ten need to wash their pants after that.

[Harry.km]

Quote: Olya Tsako

They think that in two years they will have food.

Olya You are not capable of thinking about anything other than "zhrachka"? You need paper, wipe your HANDS, because the towels become a carrier of bacilli! Study the experience of people, soon the same will happen in your country!

[Tank hard]

Quote: Harry.km

Olya You are not capable of thinking about anything other than "zhrachka"?

Nobody has yet canceled the basic instinct, however ...

[Harry.km]

Quote: Tank Hard

The basic instinct has not yet been canceled

Is he sexually transmitted? ))))

[Tank hard]

Quote: Harry.km

Is he sexually transmitted?

Well, I don’t know about you, but they told me that when there is nothing to eat, then the sex drive disappears somewhere ... But I am not an expert, unlike you, I do not pretend, you probably better know ...

[Harry.km]

Quote: Tank Hard

Well, I don’t know how you are

As we are aware of, I would like to know how it is transmitted from you. And are the sexual transmission rates equal and when shaking hands? And then FFP3 will have to use more than one set)))

[Tank hard]

Quote: Harry.km

I would like to know how it is transmitted from you.

What a prankster you are however ... We are not in "Europe", we do not want to share our personal lives.

[Nastia makarova]

they die of hunger, they have no gardens like in Russia

[Minipig79]

"Capable", "can" - anyone can make such "predictions". Maybe aliens are attacking, maybe not ...

[New Year day]

This is bad, so there are no real achievements in the fight against it

[Harry.km]

Quote: Silvestr

This is bad, so there are no real achievements in the fight against it

Infa slipped that the Chinese are starting vaccine trials ... the truth on mice or volunteers is not yet known.

[Antidote]

It seems to be a vector with 13 options, but oh well, apparently a lot of people started looking for a solution.

[Harry.km]

Quote: Antidote

It seems to be a vector

I'm not talking about the vector, I'm talking about the Chinese, they officially announced the start of the tests. But here is what I started with so far not in the know. I think that there will not be a double random one for sure))

[Thrifty]

And then what? An epidemic of a new misfortune? It’s already clear that a lot of diseases like Ebola, HIV, athepatic pneumonia, and this coronovirus are obvious products of those same USA laboratories located all over the world! It would be better if all of these viruses hit the country that pleased them and released them into the world!

[mark2]

Who understands and from what is it clear? Are medieval epidemics also products of an evil genius? You are talking nonsense. Diseases such as Ebola and HIV are Ebola and HIV.
Ebola was before its discovery of HIV, perhaps also. Just widespread after removing moral barriers. Sexual revolutions and moral principles in human relationships.
To this virus arose in the most that there is no ecologically clean country in the world, where it could hang in cities, even an ax, where they eat everything that is found in the same ecology.
They would still begin to drink water from the sewer. So there it may be that the coronovirus will run a runny nose.

[Departure]

I won't say anything about HIV with Ebola, but different respiratory byaka traditionally comes from China and usually affects everyone, incl. and the USA. Why exactly from China, and not for example from India, is not known exactly, and there are enough factors. Where the ears of the flu grow from is being tested and one was probably American: the Russian flu of 77, which came at the wrong time and behaved like a laboratory strain. The lecturer even told us the name of the American strain, o-orange, if I'm not mistaken. And now I open the first link to the allegedly "Russian" (no) seven "and see that it turns out that these are not Americans, but evil communists against their people https://russian7.ru/post/russkiy-grippa-zagadochnaya-yepidemi/

[primala]

But a pandemic is much more dangerous than an epidemic.
==============
From rearranging the places of the terms, the "sum" does not change.

Those who developed this virus, obviously, and a vaccine is available.
Soros, go deeply burrowing and watching ... (idiot piece)
They opened chemical biological laboratories around the world, and rejoice in human grief.

[Antidote]

You should rest from the TV, bring to the pen.

[primala]

Quote: Antidote

You should rest from the TV, bring to the pen.

==================
Do you think you do NOT need to know !? It’s strange.
You know, it’s armed.

[Antidote]

Do you think you KNOW the source, who invented it?
Not RENTV told you this? Prokopenko? Americans? Reptilians?

[primala]

Quote: Antidote

Do you think you KNOW the source, who invented it?
Not RENTV told you this? Prokopenko? Americans? Reptilians?

I don’t look, and I never looked at dubious sources. And all the more RanteVe.

[Dzafdet]

The trouble is that the virus gives mutations. And the Americans let gin out of the bottle ...

[iouris]

In other words, the EU will be dissolved.

[VLR]

Adequate doctors, whose voices are hammered by the screams of alarmists, claim that the coronavirus infection is a "paper tiger". She is absolutely too tough for children (who are easily knocked down by any other viral infections), she only tangentially touches people under 50, and poses a real danger only for elderly patients with a bunch of serious concomitant diseases. That is, it does not threaten humanity as a biological species in the slightest degree - unlike the plague, smallpox
or cholera. Coronavirus infection is new, therefore it is quite contagious, but it will stop by itself when immunity to it appears in at least 50 percent of people. And then everyone will forget about her. It will become ordinary and no more dangerous than all other viral ARI, of which there are hundreds of varieties. Coronavirus is already walking around the globe and will take its 50 percent in any case - at least disinfect everything with water, at least with holy water, even with a tambourine dance. And all these quarantines, in fact, only delay the process of formation of the immune layer. It is because of them that the epidemic can drag on for several years, instead of ending in a few months.

[Alex Justice]

And I think coronavirus infection is too tough for smokers. At such disgusting in the lungs settles.

[Vasyan1971]

But creating a vaccine will help limit the pandemic

Is a "limited" pandemic still a pandemic? And how does it, in general, look and is called in this case? Or is it now such a fashion - "pandemics" cram everywhere?

[Pavel57]

For 2 years of a pandemic, you can correct the geopolitical map of the world.

[Million]

In our city, it seems, there are no cases, but the store shelves are empty quickly

[RitaNik]

Recently I read an article where the psychologist explained the fearlessness of Russians before the coronavirus. I liked the comment below it: Russians have only two diseases - garbage and Tryndets. Bullshit itself will pass, and Tryndets is incurable.
I wish you all strong immunity!

[Arslan Ali]

I believe that while there are no epidemics in countries, talking about a pandemic is premature.
In some country have declared an epidemic?
The coronavirus epidemic began in China, then the virus spread to other countries, but did not become an epidemic yet, but it became global. (pandemic). That is how many politicians formulate a pandemic, among them there are practically no professional virologists. For them, a pandemic is not a global epidemic, but the territory where the disease spreads. Therefore, misunderstandings arise.

[Arslan Ali]

 "limited" pandemic 
No such, there is a pandemic limitation.

[A. Privalov]

Quote: Arslan Ali

In some country have declared an epidemic?

Coronavirus reached one hundred and fifty countries of the world.
The first seven leading countries with the most infections are China, Italy, Iran, Spain, South Korea, Germany and France. It should be noted that this list has not changed for a long time - only the order of countries changes depending on the number of infected. In China at the moment the number of cases is 81.058, in Italy - 27.980, in Iran - 14.991, in Spain - 9.942, in South Korea - 8.320, in Germany - 7.588, in France - 6.664.
The situation in Spain continues to worsen. If the authorities reported that from March 15 to 16 a thousand new infected were detected, then already over the past 182 hours their number has grown by almost two thousand. 491 patients died per day, and a total of an illness took the lives of XNUMX citizens of Spain. Nearly six hundred people are now in serious condition.

At 14:00 on March 17, the number of people infected in the world reached 183372.
The disease took the life of 7167 patients, 79731 people recovered.

PS To date, 116 cases have been registered in Russia.

[Arslan Ali]

It was a question in a comment, to which I gave an answer below, about a pandemic.

[Arslan Ali]

He seems to be more of an administrator than a scientist. Lots of words, "terrible" numbers and NO specifics.
Yes, I completely agree.

[Evgeny Ivanov_5]

This is how much the dollar will cost by the end of the pandemic ????? A piece for a buck?

[Nastia makarova]

dollar is flying into the abyss

[Cowbra]

... and GretaTumberg can finally
If you comply with quarantine measures - this is not a threat at all.

[Simfy]

on the topic of the virus ... in Crimea there is not a single case, but yesterday all state were quarantined. universities (although all kindergartens and schools operate in normal mode) ... now students will fly-go home for 3 weeks, and this is the floor of Russia, LDNR, and the CIS countries ... and in three weeks they will return ...
and now the question of the task?) where are more likely to become infected? and what stupid people make such decisions?

[Pacifist with AK]

Let's look at the coronavirus from a philosophical point of view: the almost Equal Biblical Great Equalizer has come! Everyone is sick - poor and rich, beautiful and terrible, smart and stupid, white and black, democrats and totalitarianists, atheists and believers .... Reminder of sins? Clicking on the nose of arrogant people? How to know ....

[hohol95]

Such an assumption was made by the director of the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) Lothar Wheeler.

He would have better stated why the swine flu vaccine cost 250 million euros!
They scared everyone with swine flu, they scared him, and he took it and disappeared later! After the sale of the British emergency vaccine. They bought a vaccine, but there’s no more flu ...
So now ...

[Warrior MorePhoto]

We are on the eve of the great economic depression of the 21st century.
Say this does not apply to the topic of the article? Yes, but ....

[Klingon]

- all that’s left is to turn off the electricity and now you have a real APOKALIPSIS

[Pandiurin]

Quote: asbond

60-70 ٪ - a lot! If we take mortality in the region of 2-4% of the sick (now the ratio of sick and dead is approximately the same) - we get about 1-2% of the total population of the planet! This is just an unrealistic big number! Something the Germans are overwhelming with panic!

Now there are already at least two variants of the virus, stiff and with milder symptoms - the course of the disease.
Due to the fact that people can carry the mild variant on their feet or be confused with the common cold, the mild variant of the virus will spread much faster and give new mutations in which even lighter variants will have the same advantage in spreading. Therefore, most who fall ill with coronavirus will suffer from its light version where the mortality rate is lower.
Of course, nuances are possible, but this is the most linearly predicted option.

Then the Germans predict 70% in TWO years. During this time, the most effective treatment options by traditional means will be developed. There will be several different vaccine options from different farm companies. So mortality will be lower than now.

The worst thing is the explosive increase in the number of cases at this stage. Then medical resources will not be enough for patients with a severe course of the disease. The lack of intensive care for such patients is equivalent to death.

[Military Builder]

Klingon (Úlfar)
- all that’s left is to turn off the electricity and now you have a real APOKALIPSIS

no, electricity is the last century, now it’s enough to turn off mobile communications. and all is a vacuum

[Gennady Fomkin]

A crisis wave has come to Germany, that's what they remembered about the virus, what will be the problem in the economy?

[A. Privalov]

Judging by what is happening in the world, very soon, neither you, nor me, nor anyone else on this site will be more worried about the problems of Germany. We will each be busy with our problems to such an extent that strangers will become of little interest to us.

[Gennady Fomkin]

It can be assumed that the Bundestag stocks of hand sanitizers will be depleted during this week. "Ralf Schuler on Twitter
“Im Bundestag wird Desinfektionsmittel knapp. Eine Rundmail an die Abgeordneten ging heute an alle Büros @BILD_Politik ”

[Gennady Fomkin]

German folk remedies:

In Munich, a 45-year-old Bosnian sprinkled disinfectant on his Chinese neighbor on the staircase. At the same time, he shouted several times about the "coronavirus" and then threatened that he would "shorten her head."
Coronavirus News: Dritter Corona-Toter in Deutschland, Lufthansa streicht 23 Flüge
Coronavirus News: Dritter Corona-Toter in Deutschland, Lufthansa streicht 23 Flüge
Das Coronavirus breitet sich weiter aus. Alle Updates gibt's im BILD-Live-Ticker.