The beginning of 2020 turned out to be rich in "fun" news. Here, the spread of the coronavirus COVID-19, and the threat of the escalation of the military conflict in Syria due to the actions of Turkey, and a sharp decline in oil prices, followed by a depreciation of the ruble.
We have already experienced the depreciation of the ruble more than once, maybe this time it will cost, although, of course, there is little joy. Nuclear war over Turkey is also unlikely to start - the great powers do not sacrifice themselves for the sake of the allies. But on the coronavirus we dwell in more detail.
The first cases of COVID-19 coronavirus infection were detected at the end of December 2019 in the city of Wuhan, Hubei Province of central China. As early as December 31, 2019, Chinese authorities informed the World Health Organization (WHO) of an outbreak of unknown pneumonia. As of March 12.03.2020, 126, 672 19 cases of infection with COVID-68 coronavirus were recorded, of which 305 4 people recovered, 641 30 people died. At a meeting of the WHO Emergencies Committee on 2020 January XNUMX, the outbreak of the new coronavirus was recognized as a public health emergency of international concern
In Russia, the first cases of coronavirus were recorded on January 31, 2020. The sick were residents of China. As of March 12.03.2020, 28, 19 infected with the coronavirus COVID were recorded in Russia.
Coronavirus distribution map
Dynamics of changes in the number of sick and recovered
The main indicator characterizing the degree of infectiousness of the virus is base reproductive number - the expected number of secondary cases of infection caused by one infection, that is, the number of people who, on average, are infected by one patient. According to recent estimates, for the coronavirus COVID-19, this indicator is approximately 2-4 (the indicator increased from the end of January to the current time). For comparison: in the influenza virus, this indicator is 1,3-2.
Basic reproductive number for various diseases
According to information from the WHO website, the incubation period (the time period between infection and the onset of clinical symptoms of the disease with the COVID-19 virus) ranges from 1 to 14 days and most often is about five days. These estimates will be updated as new data become available, as there is information that this period can be up to 28 days.
Infectious carrier in the absence of symptoms contributes to the spread of coronavirus. A person infected with COVID-19 coronavirus does not suspect about his illness for a long period of time, is actively in contact with others, and by the time signs of the disease appear, he manages to infect a significant number of people.
Cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Italy
Cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in France
Confirmed cases by date of registration of cases of COVID-19 in Italy
Confirmed cases by COVID-19 case registration date in France
Pay attention to the similarity of the graphs of the increase in the number of diseases in Italy and France: isolated cases and after three to four weeks - a sharp surge.
Extrapolating the situation to our country, we can assume that there is a likelihood of a situation developing in a similar way, in this case, a sharp increase in patients with the coronavirus COVID-19 can be expected within a few weeks.
There is a suspicion that the small number of cases in some countries is explained either by the inability of their healthcare system to quickly identify cases or by the reluctance of the leadership of these countries to recognize / voice the problem. This primarily refers to the countries of the Third World, where, with terrible crowding and unsanitary conditions, the coronavirus epidemic seems to be gone. It is enough to recall the case in Turkmenistan:
In Ashgabat, the police fined a local resident who appeared on the street with a mask to protect herself from the coronavirus. According to the Chronicle of Turkmenistan, police stopped a woman on the street under the pretext of checking a residence permit. After making sure that everything was fine with this, they asked why she was walking in the mask. Law enforcement officers regarded her actions as a provocation and distrust of the quarantine measures of the government. A citizen was fined 249 manat ($ 71).
On March 11, 2020, WHO announced the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 2019-nCoV.
On the other hand, there is good news: the Chinese authorities said that the peak of the spread of coronavirus in the country has passed. The question is how realistic this forecast is, and how much governments of other countries can and are ready to repeat the tough and effective measures of the PRC to curb the spread of the disease.
An important issue is the mortality rate of COVID-19. In many respects, this determines the attitude of the population to the disease: the fear of death makes people (not all) more anxious about their health and the recommendations of doctors.
Mortality of a disease is a statistical indicator equal to the ratio of the number of deaths from a disease to the number of patients with this disease for a certain time period. Those who are still sick are not taken into account.
Thus, on March 12.03.2020, 19, the average lethality of COVID is:
(number of dead / (number of dead + number of recovered)) x 100% = (4 641 / (4 641 + 68 305)) x 100% = 6,4%,
- in China: (3 172 / (3 172 + 62 892)) x 100% = 4,8%;
- in Italy: (827 / (827 + 1)) x 045% = 100%;
- in Iran: (429 / (429 + 2 959)) x 100% = 12,7%;
- in South Korea: (66 / (66 + 333)) x 100% = 16,5%;
- in Spain: (55 / (55 + 183)) x 100% = 23,1%.
The calculation as a whole and for each country is separately carried out for the period of accumulation of statistics.
If you count mortality on the number of cases:
(number of deaths / (number of deaths + number of sick)) x 100% = (4 641 / (4 641 + 128 343)) x 100% = 3,5%,
- in China: (3 172 / (3 172 + 80 932)) x 100% = 3,8%;
- in Italy: (827 / (847 + 12)) x 462% = 100%;
- in Iran: (429 / (429 + 10 075)) x 100% = 4,1%;
- in South Korea: (66 / (66 + 7 869)) x 100% = 0,8%;
- in Spain: (55 / (55 + 2)) x 277% = 100%.
The calculation as a whole and for each country is separately carried out for the period of accumulation of statistics.
It must be understood that mortality rates become more realistic over time, when statistics accumulate, since patients can die much faster than recover. Therefore, the most realistic mortality rate in China is about 3,8-4,8%. However, in the absence of proper medical care, the mortality rate can be significantly higher.
A large-scale study, which was based on data on 72 confirmed cases of infection in China, showed that in 000% of cases the disease is mild, in 80% of cases in severe form, and in 14% of cases in extremely severe form. According to reports, this infection is most dangerous for the elderly and those with concomitant diseases.
Coronavirus mortality rate COVID-19 for different age groups
The average mortality rate for COVID-19 is estimated to be around 3-6% and may be significantly higher in countries with poor health care. For comparison: the lethality of the influenza virus is less than 1% (about 0,1% in the influenza viruses H2N2 and H3N2).
Threats and Risks
Threats from the coronavirus COVID-19 can be divided into three groups:
- a threat to health;
- a drop in the quality of life;
- a threat to the economy.
Let's start with the second point, since it is already noticeable. You can say as much as you like that the threat of coronavirus is a fake, that COVID-19 is not more dangerous than the flu, and that coronavirus is the machinations of aspirin producers. This does not cancel the existing reality.
The threat of the epidemic is considered seriously at different levels, provokes the corresponding reaction of special services and organizations that issue reports, make statements and give recommendations for its prevention, including restrictive and prohibitive ones. As a result, communications stop, enterprises close, and the burden on the healthcare system and social infrastructure increases. This causes the corresponding movements in the economy: stocks and exchange rates are falling, prices and interest rates on loans are rising.
For example, Russian stocks and the ruble fell after the announcement of the WHO pandemic.
The decrease in the value of shares of Russian companies is in all sectors of the economy
You should not think that this is typical only for Russia. After the outbreak in China, the same thing happened with the shares of Chinese companies. According to Bloomberg, the share price of more than 2800 Chinese companies fell by more than 10%, the Financial Times notes that the drop in quotes at the opening of mainland China exchanges on Monday was a record since 2007.
The situation in the United States is no better: the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday, March 12, 2020, experienced the largest decline since Black Monday 1987, despite the decision of the Federal Reserve System, which acts as the US Central Bank, to allocate 1,5 trillion . dollars as short-term loans to stimulate the national economy and stabilize the financial system.
The direct influence of the COVID-19 virus on Russians in terms of the economy, and also on citizens of other countries, can be:
- reduction of wages;
- shortage of certain goods;
- reduction in the number of jobs;
- increase in the cost of goods and services.
Another factor influencing the COVID-19 virus will be a decline in quality of life. Restrictions on international movements have already been introduced, events with a large crowd of people are being canceled, arrivals from abroad are placed in strict quarantine. In the future, we can expect a significant increase in restrictive measures up to the introduction of a ban on the operation of entertainment facilities, curfews, and the closing of quarantine of entire settlements.
In Russia, you can expect:
- a ban on travel to a number of countries or in general;
- cancellation of concerts, sporting events, etc .;
- home quarantine for suspected coronavirus;
- forced isolation for those suspected of coronavirus.
If the situation worsens:
- closing entertainment facilities - restaurants, bars, shops, etc .;
- a ban on leaving populated areas (creation of quarantine zones).
Map of countries restricted to visit. There is no doubt that the number of such countries will increase
From the point of view of health, elderly people are at greatest risk, mortality from coronavirus COVID-19 for which reaches 20%. Considering that many families live together with older relatives or communicate closely, the threat to the latter increases significantly due to the increased risk of infection. On the plus side, the lesser impact of coronavirus COVID-19 on children, especially younger children.
Panic and an increase in the number of cases can lead to a shortage of vital medicines, possibly products, as well as other essential goods. Currently, there is already a significant shortage of personal protective equipment (PPE) - respirators, medical masks, etc. due to their purchases in large quantities by foreign buyers.
The most significant problem can be considered the possibility of exceeding the number of patients with the coronavirus COVID-19 over the health system's ability to treat them. In this case, an increase in mortality can be expected due to the untimely provision of medical care.
Thus, the main threats to the health of Russians arising from the coronavirus COVID-19 can be considered:
- delays in receiving medical care for a disease or the complete absence of such an opportunity;
- shortage of drugs, PPE, food and other vital goods;
- increased risk of death for the elderly.
Questions and Answers
Perhaps the Russian health care system will be able to contain the epidemic better than is done in China, Italy and other countries? Our health care system, too, is working to the limit during normal times due to a shortage of doctors. My child is examined by a female doctor who examined me as a child, and that was more than 30 years ago. According to her, those wishing to come to her place are not particularly observed.
Doctors consider normal daily duty followed by a shift, i.e. in fact, a working day with a length of about 30-35 hours (sleeping on duty in a large hospital is almost unrealistic, at best 1-2 hours in fits and starts).
With ARVI disease, it’s easier to take a few days at your own expense than to stand in a queue for 1-2 hours every other day in a clinic for a sick leave, at the risk of picking up something else, and you can sign up in advance most often only for a date in 1-2 weeks, what will be no longer relevant.
Now let's try to predict the situation in hospitals with an increase in the number of patients with the COVID-19 coronavirus to 1000-5000-10000 people ...
The optimization of healthcare has led to the massive closure of hospitals and a drop in the quality of medical care in Russia, experts say. By 2021-2022, the country in terms of the number of hospitals can reach the level of the Russian Empire in 1913
If not a healthcare system, then maybe the government will save us?
So far, the government has not taken any serious action. No, there are some checks, someone was quarantined, but all this is a drop in the bucket. The incubation period is long, so the number of infected increases unnoticed. Introducing quarantine after the epidemic has already spread is much less effective than doing it now.
Nothing of this kind is being done; only independent media raise a “panic”:
The threat of coronavirus spread in Russia is minimized, said Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.
I would only like to understand what such optimistic statements are based on?
On the other hand, perhaps some measures are still being taken. For example, on the website of the manufacturer of air purification systems the following announcement is posted:
At the moment, there is a difficult situation with the shipment of Dezar irradiators due to the threat of the spread of coronavirus infection. There are NO irradiators in the free sale. There are NO models! They will appear in free sale in stock at the warehouse only after all the needs of most public places are met.
Will the author’s article cause a panic and the very deficit from which it is proposed to insure? Not. Most people, whether consciously or not, profess the so-called. sheep’s principle of survival - ignoring threats, unlimited optimistic perception of reality and reckoning on chance (luck). That is, they will not take any reasonable actions to increase their security by default, and they are not interested in materials on this topic. As experience shows, changing this behavior model is almost impossible.
If panic occurs, then most likely it will begin due to an official announcement, for example, about quarantine closing of the city, or something similar. Panic has nothing to do with smart planning, a portrait of panic is a crowd sweeping away everything from store shelves without regard to whether it needs it or not. Panic and pogroms lead to even greater restrictions: curfew, card distribution of goods and the like.
It can be assumed that the main factor in the shortage of certain goods may be their supply abroad at a higher cost and / or the actions of speculators buying up goods for subsequent resale.
Citizens who make reasonable purchases of essential medicines, products, and other basic necessities in advance are more likely to smooth out the peak of consumption that will occur during the period of maximum development of the epidemic.
Is the coronavirus epidemic a conspiracy of pharmacists to cash in on ordinary people? Yeah, of course, the WHO announced a pandemic just to ensure that the Chelyabinsk Nonwovens Plant increased sales of medical masks ...
Coronavirus epidemic organized by the USA against China? Play with bacteriological weapons - It's like setting fire to an apartment building to annoy a neighbor. But even so, what's the difference? Objective reality will not be affected in any way.
COVID-19 Coronavirus Outbreak Prevention
Measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus epidemic COVID-19 can and should be taken both at the state and at the personal level.
At the state level it is necessary:
- already cancel all public events throughout the country: concerts, exhibitions, sporting events and the like, all only through television and the Internet;
- officially recommend to employers, if possible, to transfer employees to the home office mode of work (remote work at home);
- recommend employers to minimize the number of business trips of employees, meetings, personal meetings - if possible, organize the resolution of issues remotely;
- cancel or restrict education at schools and institutes, if possible, switch to distance education via the Internet;
- recommend that parents do not take their children to kindergarten if it is possible to leave them with someone;
- develop a list of recommendations for behavior in public places, identify signs of the disease, etc., and bring them to the public through the official media;
- severely restrict or completely prohibit the export of personal protective equipment (FFP3 respirators and supplies for them, medical masks), devices for cleaning and filtering air, vital medicines, products;
- reduce or temporarily remove taxes and excise taxes on the production of products, the deficit of which may arise due to the epidemic of coronavirus;
- prosecute for speculative trading at repeatedly inflated prices of PPE, medicines and other necessities;
- provide equipment for air purification and filtering facilities of state institutions, schools, kindergartens, etc .;
- oblige large enterprises and companies at the federal level to equip the premises with devices for cleaning and filtering air;
- organize the distribution of PPE, antiseptic agents, and possibly a limited grocery set from the Rosrezerv’s warehouses, to the voting procedure for amending the Constitution of the Russian Federation (at the same time this will ensure the appearance necessary for the country's leadership);
- consider and envisage the possibility of rapid deployment of mobile hospitals for patients, including those based on indoor stadiums and other sports facilities, concert halls and cinemas, etc., as well as ways to increase the capacity of existing medical institutions to treat infected patients.
The irradiator-recirculator of air, the ultraviolet bactericidal wall ORUBn-3-3-KRONT ("Dezar-3") prevents the spread of infections such as influenza, acute respiratory infections, diphtheria, tuberculosis and many others by disinfecting indoor air. The main task is to work in rooms where constant maintenance of aseptic conditions in the presence of people is required. The recirculator is also intended for use in rooms with an increased risk of the spread of diseases transmitted by airborne droplets and by air. The degree of disinfection: 99%, productivity - 100 m³ per hour, power - 60 W
On a personal level:
- refuse to attend mass entertainment events, regardless of prohibitions at the state level;
- Do not take children to kindergarten if there is someone to leave them at home with;
- restrict children from attending additional classes, circles, sections, etc. until the end of the epidemic;
- if possible, minimize contacts in public transport and in crowded places;
- observe personal hygiene - be sure to wash your hands immediately after visiting public places, use the recommended means for disinfecting hands and face;
- if the situation worsens outside the home, constantly use PPE (respirators), it may be worthwhile to do it now, and if any member of the family becomes ill, use them at home;
- purchase respirators of the FFP3 class, and to whom it is possible to use means, half masks or full-face masks with appropriate filters, to study methods of their disinfection for long-term use (Respirator FAQ), we can immediately say that now it’s not always possible to do it everywhere, and prices have already increased 4-10 times. The most effective are full-face masks, with respirators and half masks, the use of goggles is necessary, since the virus effectively infects when it gets into the eyes;
Full face mask and half mask with anti-aerosol filters - this is the best way to protect against COVID-19 coronavirus infection
- medical masks for healthy people are practically useless, they are necessary for those who are already sick, to reduce the impact on others. You can use medical masks only in the absence of other PPE: WHO recommendations on the use of masks in the population, in the care of the sick at home and in the provision of medical care in the context of an outbreak of a new coronavirus (2019-nKoV);
- create a supply of medicines necessary for personal use, for example, if someone drinks pills for a chronic disease, then create a supply of them for 2-3 months, as well as a similar supply of the simplest inexpensive drugs - antipyretic, anti-inflammatory. In addition to the risk of drug shortages, it is necessary to minimize the number of visits to pharmacies during the threatened period, since they will be more likely to run into COVID-19 patients;
- create a stock of long-term storage products and household goods for a period of 2-3 months in case of a shortage of products or the introduction of restrictions on movement (quarantine);
- based on financial capabilities, consider the possibility of acquiring a household air purifier with a HEPA filter and a UV filter that can reduce the likelihood of transmission of infection between family members (FAQ on choosing air purifiers);
- limit spending on luxury goods and other goods not related to essential goods;
- do not succumb to panic, when creating reserves, use the principles of reasonable sufficiency, do not show aggression towards sick and potentially sick people and prevent such aggression shown by others, be attentive to the health status of your loved ones.
WHO recommendations for the care of patients with a mild form of the disease allegedly caused by the new coronavirus COVID-19.