Can Turkey defeat the Russian army in Syria?

Can Turkey defeat the Russian army in Syria?

Michael Peck and The National Interest, God grant you good health and long life! And then there is not only Michael Peck, a specialist in the Russian army, but also Michael Kofman, an employee of the Center for Naval Analysis.


And together, two, as I understood, not stupid people, for some reason began to seriously discuss the topic "And if an elephant stands on a whale, who will win"?

Win, of course, stupidity on a global scale. Yes, a lot of things are happening in Russia that cannot be called smart. But constitutional changes, pension reforms, and other turbulences of today are one thing, and the outbreak of World War III is another.

I will not name a hypothetical conflict between Russia and Turkey as a prelude to the third world war. But someone really wants to see it under a magnifying glass from all sides.

Okay, let's and we will see where the Americans are looking and what they see.

"The balance of power is decisively against Russia in Syria."
"But if Turkish and Russian troops really entered the battle in Syria, Turkey would have the advantage."


Both Meehan's voice. Both Kofman and Peck.

And then they wonder why. Indeed, on paper, Russia still looks very sinister. Especially scary is the largest (not fact, by the way) arsenal of nuclear warheads. That is, Michael is very serious.

It is difficult to say why they needed to touch our nuclear arsenal, apparently, according to the old principle: if a gun hangs on stage in the theater in the first act, it means that before the end of the last one they will definitely shoot someone.

Well, there is a certain logic to this. If you squeeze very hard ... No, even if you squeeze hard, not so much independence today among our sovereigns in order to demolish the globe. They can’t.

So, by the will of American experts (I am quite respectfully writing without quotes), Turkey and Russia may converge in a battle on Syrian soil.

Russia, a nuclear power, and Turkey. Non-nuclear. It is not clear, by the way, whether this is good or not. As for me, Erdogan is missing only nuclear bombs dreaming of a new Ottoman Empire.

However, the Turkish army is a very confident army. Although not so long ago a wave of purges among the high command staff swept there, nevertheless, this is the army. And the fleet is quite decent, capable of fighting on a par with our Black Sea.

But what's the point? What is in these comparisons, if there can be no talk of anything but political confrontation between Russia and Turkey?

For now, at least.

What is located at the Khmeimim base is just a laugh compared to the Turkish army. This is simply a very very limited contingent of not even the Russian army, but the VKS.

"Estimated" by the Americans, the grouping of Russian troops consists of several thousand military personnel and several dozen aircraft. And plus support ships.

Well, let one and a half to two thousand flight technical personnel, auxiliary structures and guards with the military police be a few.

Turkey also has several thousand troops as part of its ground forces. 260 to be exact. 260 thousand against two.

Mikhan, what are you talking about?

It is possible that there are only a few dozen (more precisely, 26) F-16Cs that also cost a few dozen (two, well three) Russian aircraft at the Turkish Air Force.

And if we take into account that all the supply of the Russian forces’s group goes through the Bosphorus and Dardanelles, which are controlled by Turkey ... And if Turkey closes the straits, and it also has its own airspace for Russian planes, excuse me, you just have to wait until across the Mediterranean Sea taken out. Slightly hungry.

So just Michael talk about the vulnerability of the Russian contingent. Kofman believes that

"... In a scenario where Russia has one air base, a presence that does not increase, a presence that requires access to the Bosphorus for logistical support, the Russian troops are in a very vulnerable position."


Is logical. But excuse me, why do we need to increase our presence in Syria? Sorry, potential gentlemen, but this is YOUR, not OUR scenario.

Even if we compare the participation in the life of one country (of course, Afghanistan), we also had a limited contingent there. They left with their heads held high, leaving behind cities, schools, hospitals, airfields.

Which Americans use today. Here is a paradox. But what the Americans will leave behind - this is a very complex issue. But obviously not hospitals and schools. They Americans build democracy. But schools and other things are not related to democracy.

Well, a little distracted.

Further, Kofman and Peck reasonably reasonably talk about ... Russia's retaliatory strike on Turkey!

Well, yes, they argue well, but how sensible is hard to say. We look hypothetically, right?

Good. Suppose Erdogan went as far as to strike at Khmeimim. I simply don’t see any other scenario, because he simply has nothing to reach the territory of Russia. Frigates and corvettes, on which it is theoretically possible to place rockets, will meet the "Balls".

Aircraft ... Aircraft will also have something to correct the trajectory, and the worst weaponthat Turkish F-16Cs can carry are Mark 84 bombs, as ancient as ... And with a combat weight of 900 kg.

So in fact, Turkey will not be able to deliver such a blow to Russia in order to have a decent response. And indecent ...

This is where the blow to Khmeimim begs. To which Russia can answer “from the heart”, I agree.

But, firstly, Turkey simply has no reason to seek such an adventure on all points. Of course, no one (thank God) is talking about a nuclear strike, but cruise missiles will be more than enough for Turkey. Moreover, there will be practically nothing to neutralize them.

Very poorly imagine the Atilgan and Zipkin complexes made on the basis of the Stinger, intercepting the Caliber. It would be a very epic sight.

In general, before buying our S-400s from Turkey with air defense it was very so-so. But now the S-400 is not a panacea against Russian weapons.

Count on the help of colleagues in the block?

Complex issue. And the American Michael himself very gently stroking it. On the one hand, yes, Turkey is a member of the NATO bloc. On the other hand, the bloc, according to the charter, is not required to support the participation of bloc members in campaigns in territories outside the NATO zone.

That is, the war of Turkey with the Kurds on the territory of Syria is a matter exclusively of Turkey. But if the Armenian army launched an attack on the city of Kars, citing the fact that Kars was the capital of the Armenian kingdom of Bagratuni and the capital of the Armenian Kars kingdom, then all the forces of the NATO bloc would have to fall upon the hordes of Armenians.

But not before the first Armenian (or non-Armenian) soldier crosses the Turkish border. And no one will forbid having fun outside the national territory of Turkey. At one's own risk.

That is, American experts confirm that 7 thousand people of the Turkish military in northern Syria, coupled with heavy equipment and aviationsupporting supporters or simply beneficial Turkey people - all this is done outside the framework of NATO.

That's why, in fact, Michael is considering such a turn of events as the military confrontation between Russia and Turkey.

But it can really begin. It's hard to argue with the Americans. In the area of ​​the same Idlib are Russian advisers and military police. It is easy to imagine several scenarios when Turkish and Russian troops enter into direct battle.

“For example, a Turkish attack on Syrian troops could injure Russian advisers who require air support from Russian aircraft. Or Turkish planes accidentally shot down Russian planes mistaken for Syrian planes, and then Russia could strike back by shooting down Turkish planes. ”


The translation is accurate. That's just again the Americans speak in accordance with their standards. This was already when a Turkish plane shot down a Russian one. Therefore, in spite of all the curtsies, “by chance” it is unlikely that anyone will take the Turkish plane for a Turkish one, and therefore they will receive whoever they need with a rocket. But no one was horrible.

But in general, Kofman and Peck are well aware that both Russia and Turkey will “understand” the political arena until the last moment. And only then the guns can speak, and even then it all looks so ... How can the Russian air contingent pose a real threat to the Turkish side, I personally do not really understand. This is exactly the case when the Turks will be taken in bulk.

Yes, the question is whether Turkey and Russia have goals that can be satisfied, given the interests of both countries.

Here yes, it is unlikely. Turkish troops are occupying northeastern Syria in order to create a buffer zone between Syrian Kurds who want to live apart from Assad and Turkish Kurds who have long wanted independence from Turkey. In general, to arrange a sort of reservation, where it will be possible to place all dissenters.

In addition, Turkey does not hide its joy over the hypothetical collapse of the Assad regime with the desired death of the latter. Then the borders of the Kurdish reservation could be extended towards the oil-bearing areas, and then many of Turkey’s problems would be resolved as if by themselves.

And the third problem that I mentioned in one of the previous articles: a million Syrian refugees in Turkey. A bit not the “reward” that Erdogan would like. More precisely, not at all. Erdogan needs gas (albeit Russian, okay) and oil. As cheap as possible.

For its part, Russia supports the Assad regime. Yes, the Americans do not understand the difference between the legal stay of their troops in the territory of another state, because for them the opinion of another country is not significant. The main thing - the Senate and Congress decided, and then the grass does not grow, because they still trample it.

Very old and very American position.

Kofman, however, understands that the Russian side is beginning to act in the style of the Americans. And this frankly doesn’t amuse him or infuriate him.

“It is clear that the Russian military will intervene on behalf of the Syrian regime if the stability and survival of the regime are in question. But she (Russia) is not going to intervene on behalf of the Syrian forces in Idlib. Idlib Russia is not needed. "


Well, we'll see it, by the way. Whether Idlib is needed or not needed on the map of Syria as a Syrian city - yes, this will be decided in Moscow and Damascus. It's a shame that it’s not in Ankara and Washington?

Such is the current political situation in the region.

The military alignment to look closely at the point, as you see, is not. There is nothing to compare with the Turkish army from Russia. So I’m sure you don’t have to worry about the escalation of hostilities and the hypothetical conflict between Turkey and Russia.

Peck and Kofman did a very good job. And a conflict of interests between Russia and Turkey on Syrian territory is very possible. And even as a prelude to the third world.

But still, I think that the World War III will be provoked by the Swiss Navy corvettes, who will open fire on fishing vessels in Belarus, catching trout in the wrong places.

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  1. maidan.izrailovich 12 March 2020 05: 16 New
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    The Russian army is in Russia. That means defeating her in Syria is not possible.
    Only the military contingent of the Russian army can win in Syria. But not the fact that it will work out.
    1. tlauicol 12 March 2020 05: 35 New
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      Quote: maidan.izrailovich
      The Russian army is in Russia. That means defeating her in Syria is not possible.
      Only the military contingent of the Russian army can win in Syria. .

      which has nothing to do with the Russian army?
      it's just like
      Or Turkish planes accidentally shot down Russian planes that were mistaken for Turkish, and then Russia could strike back by shooting down Turkish planes
      1. Tatyana 12 March 2020 06: 20 New
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        Quote: Roman Skomorokhov
        Nothing but Prelude to the Third World, a hypothetical conflict between Russia and Turkey I will not name.

        I absolutely agree with that!
        This is very correct and bitterly said! sad
        1. Maki Avellevich 12 March 2020 07: 06 New
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          Quote: Tatiana
          Quote: Roman Skomorokhov
          I will not name the hypothetical conflict between Russia and Turkey as a prelude to the Third World War.

          I absolutely agree with that!
          This is very correct and bitterly said!

          when today we leaf through the pages of historical books it is easy for us to understand at what point the world was replaced by war.
          in real time, the average man finds it difficult to sense that a great war has already begun.
          wars, as we know, begin long before they begin. sorry for the pun.

          a big war is already going on, as always the prelude is very long in time and therefore poorly visible to us.
          It has long been said that the holy fools were given a prophecy, but who ever listened to them?
          Well, well, it’s probably the turn of our generation to dance ..
          1. andj61 12 March 2020 12: 37 New
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            Perhaps a great war is already underway. The only hope is that the world hegemon is not at all inclined to fight. Syria (Turkish operation in Kurdistan) and North Korea are evidence of this.
      2. maidan.izrailovich 12 March 2020 07: 30 New
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        which has nothing to do with the Russian army?

        In the incorrectly posed question, it was a question of victory over the Russian army, and not over a single military contingent of this (Russian) army itself. hi
    2. Terenin 12 March 2020 05: 59 New
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      Further, Kofman and Peck reasonably reasonably talk about ... Russia's retaliatory strike on Turkey!
      yeah, about the last hit ... right now, in the morning, the head of Rosselhonazor, having read this, will instruct again to carefully check that the level of Turkish tomato pesticides is certified, and already in the afternoon, people in black from Erdogan will arrive at Kofman and Pek hello! " fellow
    3. Insurgent 12 March 2020 06: 16 New
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      Quote: maidan.izrailovich
      The Russian army is in Russia. That means defeating her in Syria is not possible.
      Only the military contingent of the Russian army can win in Syria.

      Leonid Ivashov on the likelihood of a war with Turkey, the impact of political agreements with the West on the military operation in Idlib, and a little about the domestic policy of the Russian Federation.

      Briefly, balanced, understandable.


      1. Tatyana 12 March 2020 09: 48 New
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        Quote: Insurgent
        Leonid Ivashov on the likelihood of a war with Turkey, the impact of political agreements with the West on the military operation in Idlib, and a little about the domestic policy of the Russian Federation.
        Briefly, balanced, understandable.
        Yesterday I watched this video "General Ivashov on the closure of the Bosphorus / # UGLANOV" Published: Mar 9. 2020
        In analytical terms, this is a worthy video of comments by General Ivashov.

        It’s just even interesting who these minus members are who are for this video immediately - without viewing and just for the company - cons put?
        1. Insurgent 12 March 2020 11: 40 New
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          Quote: Tatiana
          It’s just even interesting who these “minus” members are

          No difference. I’ve been to this site recently, but here it’s the same as on others where there are ratings.
          1. Tatyana 12 March 2020 11: 51 New
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            Quote: Insurgent
            Quote: Tatiana
            It’s just even interesting who these “minus” members are
            No difference. I’ve been to this site recently, but here it’s the same as on others where there are ratings.

            When earlier the VO participants had national flags attached and did not hide, which indicated which country they were from, such RELEASED minuscation on the VO website was still not observed. And now it’s just striking.
            1. Insurgent 12 March 2020 11: 55 New
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              Quote: Tatiana
              it's just striking

              Throws, no doubt. Especially when the rating per night (?) “Flies” by 1000 points to “minus”.

              But what will you do? Anonymous rating ...
              1. Tatyana 12 March 2020 12: 07 New
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                Quote: Insurgent
                Throws, no doubt. Especially when the rating per night (?) “Flies” by 1000 points to “minus.” But what do you do? Anonymous rating ...

                It is anonymous, anonymous. However, I have a suspicion of the presence of conscious extrusion of someone from the site by someone, i.e. some kind of grouping.
                It is painful at the same time, biased minuses are sometimes put to the comments left and right, and the authors of the articles are not the case sometimes, in my opinion, they spread rot! And this is wrong!
                1. Insurgent 12 March 2020 12: 18 New
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                  Quote: Tatiana
                  I have a suspicion of the presence of conscious extrusion of someone from the site by someone

                  Do you need to worry about such a rating? This is for us, the slag, to keep our eyes open. laughing
                  1. Tatyana 12 March 2020 12: 35 New
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                    Yes, I’m not worried about myself. It offends me for others. The quality of comments is affected, people are offended and leave the site or participate in comments less and less.
                    We are here on the site in order to constructively exchange views and come to a common understanding and worldview. However, the foreign enemy does not sleep and, under the guise of Russians, deliberately introduces a destructive split here - into the consciousness of Russian society - under the guise of the opinion of the supposedly Russians themselves - and this despite the fact that we have enough problems in our country and without their provocations.
                    1. Insurgent 12 March 2020 12: 39 New
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                      Quote: Tatiana
                      foreign enemy does not sleep and under the guise of Russians

                      Well, it’s you who bent ... I, too,while NOT Russian fellow
                      And besides, you have your own, homegrown fool ,few ?
                      1. Tatyana 12 March 2020 12: 45 New
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                        Quote: Insurgent
                        Well, it’s you who have bent ... I, too, haven’t been a Russian yet

                        Yes, I know about you about you. You didn’t hide it.
                        And there are those who hide their citizenship and speak on behalf of supposedly Russians. And we are already here in the lies "caught"! And, of course, some of them oppose the national interests of the Russian Federation for their NATO countries - they are bending stealthily on their NATO, anti-Russian and Russophobic line.
                      2. Insurgent 12 March 2020 12: 51 New
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                        Quote: Tatiana
                        Yes, I know about you about you. You didn’t hide it.

                        But why hide, on the contrary, I am proud of being from the DPR.
                        Quote: Tatiana
                        And we are already here in the lies "caught"!

                        On the contrary, some "some" try to "catch" me a lie that I’m not from the DPR fellow laughing
                        The world and Russia are big and fool there are a lot of them ...
                2. BIABIA 13 March 2020 15: 51 New
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                  And here, the rating can be taken. I have been on this site since 2009. He was a colonel by rating. Then here everyone cut the stars. He became a lieutenant. When asked by the moderator, they answered that the dofiga generals had divorced, so that's it. Old-timers should remember. Then they banned me. Well, all over again)
  2. iouris 12 March 2020 20: 56 New
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    Quote: maidan.izrailovich
    Only the military contingent of the Russian army can win in Syria. But not the fact that it will work out.

    The only issue to be discussed is what the consequences may be.
  • Ka-52 12 March 2020 05: 31 New
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    I read the title of the article ... I read the name of the author, I thought: "Well, Roman can’t write this nonsense." Lowered his eyes to the phrase
    And together, two, as I understood, not stupid people, for some reason began to seriously discuss the topic "And if an elephant stands on a whale, who will win"?

    I realized that Roma is writing in the right direction. Although after this phrase you could not continue, do not waste time. Although, on the other hand, what can be read will streamline the brain activity of some sofa-minders writing about events in Idlib:
    Graz (Maxim) March 10, 2020
    There is a nuclear weapon, it means that it is necessary to demonstrate the readiness of its use so that all understand and penetrate it
    1. Horon 12 March 2020 14: 25 New
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      Someone your criticism hurt, how many minuses have thrown! Do not agree. If their will had been used for a long time, the whole world would be in ruin, the main thing is that you don’t get up from the sofa!
  • Strashila 12 March 2020 05: 32 New
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    “Can Turkey defeat the Russian army in Syria?”, And can Turkey live without tourists, generally without tourists, by the fact that they will not be there when the military confrontation with Russia is announced.
    C can Turkey oppose on two fronts, on the southern in Syria and the northern on the Black Sea, who said that Russia will defend its interests only on Syrian territory.
    1. sniperino 12 March 2020 10: 21 New
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      Quote: Strashila
      can Turkey live without tourists
      Can. For a good war with Russia, she will be forgiven and compensated for. And after a bad war, it may turn out that she will have nowhere to invite tourists. If only extremals.
  • kiril1246 12 March 2020 06: 08 New
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    “In general, before buying our S-400s from Turkey with anti-aircraft defense, it was so-so. But even now, the S-400 is not a panacea for Russian weapons.”
    Here it’s just right to turn to Israel, how to overcome the unparalleled in the world of air defense.
    1. carstorm 11 12 March 2020 06: 39 New
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      what for? firstly, Israel has never opposed such air defense. and secondly, try to imagine how Israel is breaking through, for example, Moscow’s air defense. The complex itself, no matter how advanced it may be, cannot be a panacea without a combination of forces and means.
    2. sniperino 12 March 2020 10: 29 New
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      Quote: kiril1246
      Here it’s just right to turn to Israel, how to overcome the unparalleled in the world of air defense
      That is another "secret". More often drive your leader to Moscow in order to negotiate with the GDP.
    3. Horon 12 March 2020 14: 31 New
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      Israel attacked Russian bases? Change the diet you have health problems. fool
  • Mordvin 3 12 March 2020 06: 28 New
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    But still, I think that the World War III will be provoked by the Swiss Navy corvettes, who will open fire on fishing vessels in Belarus, catching trout in the wrong places.
    Since Belarusian ships are registered in Kaliningrad, and Swiss corvettes are based in Sweden, we need to target the Swedes vigorously in the first place.
    1. ser56 12 March 2020 10: 11 New
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      Quote: mordvin xnumx
      we need vigorous-loaf to target the Swedes in the first place.

      that is why the Swedes whine about the Russian threat - they smell ... bully
  • rotmistr60 12 March 2020 06: 37 New
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    Michael Peck, a specialist in the Russian army, but also Michael Kofman, an employee of the Center for Naval Analysis.
    That is what the so-called experts, to reason, suppose, and, depending on the country of their arrival, also bring their reasoning in the right direction. Today, no one can rule out another conflict situation between Turkish and Russian w / c, all the more so considering Erdogan’s behavior. But to argue who wins and how to win is really stupid. Maybe it was more useful for the Americans to speculate on the topic of Afghanistan and who there eventually “won”.
  • Pecheneg 12 March 2020 06: 41 New
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    How many feelings does the author have, impression, energy and ... lyrics. It was impossible simply, briefly and clearly, clearly without any blah blah blah, to make this, in principle, very interesting material.
  • Zaurbek 12 March 2020 07: 07 New
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    Of course he can ..... there forces and means are not intended for such wars. Another thing is that this is not a contingent of Bulgaria ... and then they crash
  • rocket757 12 March 2020 07: 10 New
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    Can Turkey defeat the Russian army in Syria?

    I wanted to write that the question was not correctly posed !!! I tried to understand, figure it out .... it turns out that there is nothing better than a name other than utter nonsense.
    Of course, from the “couch” it is much easier to argue, but if you recall the army’s past .... to a simple, it would seem, question asked to political workers then - Who will win the nuclear war ??? - once managed to hear an objective answer NO ONE! though it was the CHIEF over all other "commissars" and his shoulder straps were nowhere wider.
  • The comment was deleted.
    1. Maki Avellevich 12 March 2020 07: 59 New
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      Quote: Ministerium für Staatssicherheit
      War?
      - Don’t tell my slippers, there can only be a scuffle and a scream for the whole bazaar between traders, but it will never grow into a fight, otherwise the goods from the counters will be stolen from both.

      you analyze the actions of people using logic.
      turn our actions is not led by her.
      emotions and instincts, not our leaders.
      so anything is possible.
    2. sniperino 12 March 2020 11: 00 New
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      Quote: Ministerium für Staatssicherheit
      there can only be a brawl between traders
      You probably missed the moment when Russia switched from trade to upholding its national interests. Perhaps the German MGB receives the latest news from the CIA with a delay of 10-12 years.
    3. Horon 12 March 2020 14: 44 New
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      War?
      - Don’t tell my slippers, there can only be a scuffle and a scream for the whole bazaar between traders, but it will never grow into a fight, otherwise the goods from the counters will be stolen from both.

      The WWII and WWII began precisely with "traders." At the time of Napoleon, Russia and France also had strong trade ties, which did not stop them from entering the war! Look for other arguments, strain your brain!
  • Kazimir Prutikov 12 March 2020 08: 10 New
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    The worst case scenario is if a war breaks out between Turkey and Syria. Then Turkey gains the right to control the movement through the Bosphorus of not only military courts, but also civilian ones. Military cargo will have to be transported through Gibraltar. And oil export from Novorossiysk can be stopped altogether.
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  • Hermit21 12 March 2020 08: 20 New
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    Although not so long ago a wave of purges among the high command staff swept there, nevertheless, this is the army


    Saudi Arabia also has an army. And this also does not help much.

    And the fleet is quite decent, capable of fighting on a par with our Black Sea


    Corvettes and frigates with light anti-ship missiles with a range of 90-120 kilometers and air defense missiles with a range of 40-45 kilometers against carriers of anti-ship missiles OH with a range of 800-1000 km, missiles with a range of up to 3500 km, medium-range and long-range air defense missile systems, air defense systems, coastal complexes, fighter and strike aircraft, TNW. On a par yes
  • Sardanapalus 12 March 2020 08: 29 New
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    The author of this little phrase also answered the question of his article “It will win, of course, global stupidity.” But why then the article, even ordinary people here understand that Turkey will not fight openly against Russia. Because even the Allies in Commitment (NATO) spit on the plans of Turkey.
  • Chingachguk 12 March 2020 08: 30 New
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    The article is a big one, a lot has been said, many arguments have been cited. It is not said only about one thing ----- if the armed forces of the Russian Federation were controlled by delitants, psychos, idiots, housewives and gynecologists, as well as hysterics, then maybe it would be worth discussing something here ..... All the time what Putin and his people, everything miscalculated for months and years in advance. Sometimes it really seemed that VV I knew that it would be so and therefore did everything like that. And as a result of stocks or some sort of collapse for Russia, there has never been. Fast or slow, but Russia under Putin was constantly moving forward. I don’t know how it will be this time, but for some reason there is a feeling that the Russian leadership knows what it is doing.
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  • EvilLion 12 March 2020 08: 52 New
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    It’s just a very very limited contingent of not even the Russian army, but the VKS.


    And the 810th brigade began to relate to the Air Force? Actually, Turkey drove something to Syria near the division, Russia has Khmeinima protection and military police forces are quite comparable.

    Well, in the event of an attack on Khmeinim, the Turkish Black Sea coast simply flares up.

    And the level of competence of the Turks raises many doubts. The Turks essentially have a large army with a bunch of outdated weapons and the absence of at least some military experience and successful military traditions in general. Since Suvorov, they themselves have not won a single war in my opinion.
  • Vyacheslav p 12 March 2020 09: 15 New
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    How did they build the Armavir radar in time
  • Boris55 12 March 2020 09: 23 New
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    If the Turks could do something, then they would do it in Idlib, and, having changed diapers, they ran to the Kremlin.
  • faterdom 12 March 2020 09: 23 New
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    The biggest secret - if Erdogan expands to the point that Turkey will be occupied - there will be a storm in the media, screams that "Russia will pay the price" from all sorts of crazy aunts in Congress.
    There will be even more powerful teachings in Estonia that grass will stop growing there.
    But that's all!
    Otherwise, everyone will end, including all the baituns and psakoobraznyh, so that they do not think about themselves there.
    There will be no blockades of Petersburg - in return, the guaranteed destruction of all the capitals of the NATO countries, along with all the coastal territories of the USA, Great Britain and the rest.
    The Vatican ... Maybe we’ll leave to console the survivors, to call them to humility and patience
  • Boratsagdiev 12 March 2020 09: 43 New
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    Soooo ... I’ll sit comfortably, but with a coffee ...)
  • Nyrobsky 12 March 2020 09: 49 New
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    The prelude to the third world war was the recent killing of General Suleimani with mattresses, when Iran and the United States really moved from verbal threats to a real exchange of blows. Only in this case did the mattresses realize that they would not be beaten for children and the victory would come at a great price, silently swallowed Iran’s attacks on their bases and for a month they considered their shell-shocked, nullifying formidable rhetoric. They need a war, but it would be desirable if it was waged by other people and against their geopolitical rivals, so their sore brain draws scenarios of the war between Turkey and Russia.
  • AAK
    AAK 12 March 2020 09: 50 New
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    Colleagues! In order to squeeze Russia out of Syria, Turkey absolutely does not need to fight with the Russian military contingent there. The only question is the critical increase in the number of cockroaches in Erdogan’s head. To assess the situation, just look at the map or on the globe (who has what), and turn on the fantasy a bit. It is enough for the Turks (as a result of military losses or a usual provocation) to unleash serious hostilities (with the mobilization and declaration of martial law) with Syria:
    By forces of 3-4 army corps (now in Idlib and in northern Syria along the border with Turkey there are no more than 2-3 full-fledged Turkish divisions), Turks on land can very well reach Damascus in a short time, and in the forefront they use Idlib Turkoman and recruited "Vlasovites" from Syrian refugees in Turkey, many of whom are opponents of Assad. Further we will have 2 main options:
    1. Russia does not directly engage in battle with the Turks, Iran also does not fit into the war with its regular army. CAA and Hezbollah will not last 2 months, the Americans who control the east of Syria can fit in on the side of the Turks either themselves or with the hands of the Kurds, who will be hung up with another carrot in the form of a guarantee, well, to consider the issue of the Kurdistan Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic very soon, after why Assad is evacuated to Rostov at best, or he can repeat the fate of Allende or even Gaddafi. After that, the Syrian Hamid Karzai is elected on the tribal jirga, gives part of the territory to the Turks in gratitude for the salvation of the Syrian people, the territory of Syria is divided into occupation zones like Germany in 1945, the economy is under external control and the Qatari Stream-1 is being built at a record pace, Well, Russia, as usual, protests loudly, after which a corridor is given for departure from Khmeimim, and the land contingent with deployed banners and drill song performs a march to Tartus, where it is loaded onto ships ...
    2. Russia also does not enter directly into the battle, but declares war on Turkey and Iran. The First Middle East War begins. In this case, Turkey and Israel and the mattresses led by NATO and the Saudis may fit in with Turkey, and, in addition to Syria, Iraq may also be torn to pieces. In this version, either a very short prelude to the 4th World War, or “The Gulf Storm” against Iran ... Russia, again, very, very, very simply angrily protests, and then repeats the departure procedure with the banners deployed ...
    The direct support by Russia and, possibly, Iran of the military operations of Syria against the Turks is the 4th MV without options ...
    1. ser56 12 March 2020 10: 15 New
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      Quote: AAK
      unleash serious hostilities (with the mobilization and declaration of martial law) with Syria:
      By forces of 3-4 army corps (now in Idlib and in the north of Syria along the border with Turkey there are no more than 2-3 full-fledged Turkish divisions), Turks on land can reach Damascus in a short time,

      1) Turkey's economy will not collapse? It just won’t become gas ... request
      2) will the mobilization take place? Where to get the money - see paragraph 1.
      3) the generals will not throw off the Sultan? A good reason...
      1. AAK
        AAK 12 March 2020 11: 45 New
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        Gas will come from the same Qatar, the United States and the Arab monarchies will throw money, and there will be some economic trophies, well, and the generals, as a result of such a war, can become marshals and pasha, even kiss the sutan shoe with joy ...
        1. ser56 13 March 2020 11: 20 New
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          Quote: AAK
          Gas will come from the same Qatar,

          are there terminals and gas carriers? hi
          Quote: AAK
          throw money and the United States

          not even funny ... laughing
          Quote: AAK
          and the Arab monarchies,

          is it with oil 35? bully
          Quote: AAK
          and the generals, following the results of such a war, can become marshals and pasha, even kiss the shoe on the cassock with joy ...

          the generals are not as stupid as you think ... repeat
  • KURT330 12 March 2020 11: 08 New
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    I read it .. I laughed heartily)) This is not analytics, alas!
  • KURT330 12 March 2020 11: 21 New
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    Quote: AAK
    but declares war on Turkey Iran

    Americans are just waiting for this))
  • faterdom 12 March 2020 11: 30 New
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    Quote: AAK
    Colleagues! Turkey in order to squeeze Russia out of Syria

    Once again, I hint subtly: Russia can be made exactly as much as it allows - it has all the necessary means for this!
    If this ruler does not have enough spirit - there will be another, that’s all!
    Turkey is not balanced by Russia, and there is nothing to consider a “separate battle for Idlib,” otherwise you can easily stay without Istanbul.
    1. AAK
      AAK 12 March 2020 11: 48 New
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      Russia will be able to destroy Turkey’s infrastructure in the event of a direct military conflict, but the consequences will be very severe ... The pressure will be such that the current admiring “eat Russia” approvers can not only send GDP to Rostov but also to The Hague ...
      1. faterdom 12 March 2020 11: 51 New
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        But many will want to squeeze us out of somewhere, usually 50 years is enough.
    2. From Siberia we 12 March 2020 14: 40 New
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      Turkey is not balanced by Russia

      Justify. The Turkish ground forces are the main type of the country's armed forces (260 people - 200% of the total strength of the army. Field armies - 73, army corps - 4 (including six in the field armies), three commands (army aviation , training and doctrines of the ground forces, rear.) In total, there are 8 divisions, 7 separate brigades, 38 separate regiments, more than ten garrison commands, and combat and logistic support units.
      The following are in service with the ground forces: launchers of operational-tactical missiles - 36; battle tanks - approx. 4000; PA guns, mortars and MLRS - St. 6000; anti-tank weapons - approx. 4000 (anti-tank systems - approx. 1500, PTA guns - approx. 2500); PU SAM - 105; MANPADS - approx. 1500; armored combat vehicles - St. 5000; Army aircraft and helicopters - approx. 500.
      What, apart from nuclear weapons, can Russia oppose WITHOUT a total transfer of aircraft?
    3. From Siberia we 12 March 2020 14: 52 New
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      Turkey is not balanced by Russia

      And why is that?
      Turkish Navy: DEPL -13 units, Frigates URO-16 units, Corvettes URO-10 units.
      Russian Navy: DEPL - 7 units, Cruisers - 1 unit, Guard ships of the far sea zone - 6 units, MPC - 11 units, MPC - 8 units,
      1. Artavazdych 17 March 2020 02: 11 New
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        "And why is that?"
        - Because Sinop.
  • svp67 12 March 2020 12: 10 New
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    However, the Turkish army is a very confident army. Although not so long ago a wave of purges among the high command staff swept there, nevertheless, this is the army. And the fleet is quite decent, capable of fighting on a par with our Black Sea.
    No, the Turkish army has not yet retreated from the shock and having a large number, it has mediocre combat qualities, and the fleet, fleet and it is not only capable of fighting with our Black Sea fleets, it also surpasses it, purely by table .. .but one should not forget that the fleet was in the lead, in terms of the number of "coupists" and honestly, I still can’t find out whether Turkey was able to return all its warships to its control.
    1. From Siberia we 12 March 2020 14: 56 New
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      having a large number, it has mediocre fighting qualities

      The fighting qualities of any army are checked only on the battlefield. And recently, whose army is fighting in a large-scale war?
  • Constanty 12 March 2020 12: 10 New
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    I do not agree with the conclusions of the authors. The size of the contingent in Khmeimin does not matter, and how much the state stands behind these two thousand. The fact of the attack on the contingent will undoubtedly be cassus belli, it can still lead to Russia recognizing and supporting Kurdistan - by the way, I am surprised that Russia did not play this card actively - Russia can change the balance of forces in the region as a defender of this "Cornerstone" between Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Syria.
    Then not Ilgib by Erdogan’s problem And not Russia but Turkey are under threat
    1. From Siberia we 12 March 2020 15: 08 New
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      how much the state stands behind these two thousand.

      how Russia stands we have already seen in Yugoslavia, Libya, Iraq, Egypt, Vietnam, Cuba. What Russia values ​​more, we saw money or its sons in Chechnya. And what about the Allies of Russia? Does Russia have a lot of them?
      "In the sphere of influence of the USSR was the entire territory of Eastern Europe to Austria / Germany, 70% of the Middle East (including Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq and, what is especially important, Yemen), almost complete domination in the Mediterranean Sea remained (Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Syria) , control was maintained in Asia, including through important strategic bases in Vietnam. Then all fronts were covered, attacks of all kinds and types could be repelled by preventive measures of suppression. Covering the fronts was so widespread that a breakthrough was impossible even theoretically. It was architecture 100 percent defense.
      In the orbit of influence of the USSR was almost 2/3 of the world's population, up to half of world GDP (at that time) and as much land mass. It was a powerful empire that had complete sovereignty and a clear understanding of development priorities and vectors. "

      What do we have now? Nothing. We do not have a single (!) Strategic ally in the world, that is, none at all, an absolutely ringing void.
      Let us explain what we mean by a strategic ally. To understand the structure, three levels can be distinguished (with an example for Russia).
      First level. Allies who are guaranteed to enter into armed conflict on the side of Russia and will defend the interests of the Russian Federation in the international arena, even if this contradicts their own interests, economic feasibility, or even security issues.
      Second level. Allies who will be ready to provide material, financial or political assistance to Russia in the event of an aggravation of the situation or the critical situation of the Russian Federation. At the same time, the second-tier countries are not ready to infringe on their own interests for the sake of Russia and will not enter the war on the side of the Russian Federation until this directly affects them.
      Third level. Allies who remain neutral with Russia and will not assist the enemies of Moscow in the event of a war against the Russian Federation. That is, these are countries that will not fight against Russia, but are not ready to fight along with the Russian Federation. The third level allies retain full autonomy with respect to Russia and are not ready to infringe on their own interests for the sake of the Russian Federation. Who is Russia an ally of the third level? North Korea, Mongolia, Syria, Argentina, Venezuela.
      As for the CIS countries, this is a big, big question. The current crisis has clearly shown that we are in some way on opposite sides of the barricades, that is, none of the CIS countries for Russia is an ally of the first level. In the event of a hypothetical conflict between NATO and the Russian Federation, even the participation of Belarus on the side of Russia is in question. Minsk will not fight against Russia (as long as Lukashenko is there), but the full assistance of Belarus on the side of the Russian Federation is a debatable issue - there are no guarantees, including given the mass of Lukashenka’s unfriendly and aggressive gestures towards Moscow.

      And what about the USA? In the US’s third level allies, in fact, the whole world except North Korea, Venezuela and some countries where active pro-American structures are fighting (Syria, Yemen). The United States has managed to maintain political influence and dominance in all key regions of the planet. Even China can be considered an ally of the United States of the third level, if only for the reason that the United States is Beijing’s main trading partner, and American investment in China is in the first place, and China holds over 1.2 trillion. Gold and foreign currency reserves in US securities.
      China is the number one geopolitical adversary for the United States because of its expansion - both economic and financial, but China remains completely neutral with the United States, at least for now. There is another reason why we included China in the third level allies - this is because China will not fight against the United States (at least in the next 7-10 years). Beijing is ideologically closer to Moscow and will never be a US partner in the political or military arena (it will not fight for the USA), but the economic and financial ties between China and the USA are too strong to pretend that they are not.
      Regarding U.S. First Level Allies? The last year they decrypted. These are all EU countries + Norway + Sweden + Switzerland + Japan + Canada + Australia, Ukraine has been added. It is still worth considering Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait.
      In the orbit of influence of the United States - all the key countries of the world where technology, production facilities, financial resources and economic power are located. If necessary, the United States can mobilize regions under its control in such a way that it is stuffed with weapons, which will devalue the entire military power of Russia. No matter how much the Russian Federation produces tanks, the production, financial and economic capabilities of pro-American countries are significantly, many times higher. Yes, now from a military point of view, the balance of power between Russia and the countries of Europe (without the USA) is near parity, but this calculation does not take into account the mobilization capabilities of, say, Germany itself. Let them have a miserable hundred tanks in their arsenal, but if necessary they can be filled with thousands.

      With the exception of the use of weapons of mass destruction, we have no realistic chance of confrontation with the United States and its allies.
      1. faterdom 12 March 2020 17: 25 New
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        Everything seems to be scientifically, and analytically .... flintlocks of 5000000 pieces, cast iron cores of 100000 pieces ... And France over there ... is worried.
        Only now, for the first time in history, we technologically outstripped the West in several types of weapons at once (and not all were presented and demonstrated!) And the simple listing of someone’s divisions, tanks and aircraft carriers inspires some respect, only no one wants to be a tanker or a sailor in them, even the Japanese are no longer so suicidal. With Hitler or Napoleon, too, the list of allies is terrific - and they went confidently to divide Russia, and not die in it ....
        Moreover, all the same: we do not attack Turkey, and this, if we ignore verbiage, everyone understands that greatly reduces the moral obligation to “help”.
        1. From Siberia we 12 March 2020 17: 29 New
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          Quote: faterdom
          for the first time in history we are technologically ahead of the West

          Did you find out from the TV? The country has no microelectronics, machine tools, etc., but what can I say there are no bandages !!! We cannot make condoms! Lighters and those Chinese like nails! But they did a child prodigy. Do you believe it yourself? Or work out a salary?
          1. faterdom 12 March 2020 17: 44 New
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            Do you not believe in the existence of Iskander, Dagger, Caliber and Vanguard? "Ball" and "Bastion"? What Crimea is Russian and from there the Black Sea is tightly closed for all NATO countries and sympathizers? Well, this is a religious question ... Or philosophical.
            I have already served a salary for a long time, I live on retirement ... But so far I have up to 60 years, so if I can help with anything I can.
  • ZaharoFF 12 March 2020 15: 17 New
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    These "Bears" are ridiculous in their attempts and make an analysis (compare the warm with the blue) and please the "bosses." As a result, this is not an analysis, but analyzes, in the worst sense, and they didn’t please the authorities, obviously. Hedgehogs pricked, cried, but continued to eat a cactus.
  • From Siberia we 12 March 2020 18: 01 New
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    Quote: faterdom
    What Crimea is Russian and from there the Black Sea is tightly closed for all NATO countries and sympathizers?

    How is it blocked? The Black Sea is blocked by Turkey if it becomes a belligerent. Then please answer the question. Why should the NATO fleet crawl into the Black Sea puddle? The fleet needs operational space which is not there. Based on the number of countries of NATO allies in the Black Sea theater, the Russian Navy will not even have a chance to pop there.
    Do you not believe in the existence of Iskander, Dagger, Caliber and Vanguard? "Ball" and "Bastion"?

    All of this or similar to this is with your "NATO" friends. Particular laughter is called "caliber" This obsolete tomahawk has never learned how to hit sea targets. (and how many calibers do we have?) If the NATO fleet will not be in the Black Sea, then who will shoot balls and bastions? Do not remind the German fleet in the Black Sea during WWII? What was there? : boats and a dozen torpedo boats. Oh yeah, another Siebel landing craft. Almost ALL losses on the Black Sea in WWII were suffered by the Black Sea Fleet in OWN minefields. So it was during the absence of URO ships. Now, like the Black Sea Theater, nobody needs a gift. Like the unsinkable aircraft carrier in the form of the Crimea.
    1. faterdom 12 March 2020 18: 11 New
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      Since it’s so incomprehensible I am reporting: it is Turkey that has half the coast - the Black Sea. Not from Germany, not from Italy and not from the USA - from Turkey! And therefore, given the range of modern weapons, it is vulnerable to us through and through, everywhere, for non-nuclear weapons, including weapons, that is, open-air Turkish tanks and MLRS simply will not be possible to move. Airfields - underground, oil refining to zero in the first hours, and so on - bridges, railways ...
      1. From Siberia we 12 March 2020 18: 18 New
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        Check out my post above about allies. War with Turkey is a war with the whole world. Do not remind why the WWII began. Or was this duke duke so dear to everyone? The whole world will fight with you. From Norway to Alaska (counterclockwise) ALL the planes in the world will hammer you. And believe me, China will not miss its beating in this. Like Japan itself. You don’t have the strength to fight all at once. And I have already said, but I repeat. It is enough to turn off the master of cards and visas and the country will be in chaos, famine, etc. The people themselves will sweep away the power that will allow this.
        1. faterdom 12 March 2020 18: 22 New
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          Quote: From Siberia we
          War with Turkey is a war with the whole world.

          Yeah, the battle for Idlib! In my opinion, “the whole world” has already quite definitely spoken out about this. Yes, and China is on the side of the Uigur Muslim separatists - are you not very keen on alternative history? Rather, he should pay extra for each of his utilized bearded men.
        2. Nyrobsky 12 March 2020 20: 30 New
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          Quote: From Siberia we
          The whole world will fight with you. From Norway to Alaska (counterclockwise) ALL the planes in the world will hammer you. You have no strength to fight all at once.
          There are great doubts about the fact that “You are from Siberia,” but that is not the point. Any orchestra has a conductor, and in order for the orchestra to nakosyachit it is not necessary to beat off the fingers of each individual violinist or harpist, it is enough to hit the conductor. In the event of a cut with NATO, the venturer will receive the first whip and will not be able to sit with impunity across the ocean. As the GDP said, “If there is no Russia in this world, then Russia is such a world” (not literally but somehow). And live with this, understanding that you will have to breathe radiation in solidarity for many years, and therefore pray that the war of ALL "(counterclockwise)" with Russia does not take place as long as possible, but better in general.
          Quote: From Siberia we
          And I have already said, but I repeat. It is enough to turn off the master of cards and visa and the country will be chaos, famine, etc.
          Yeah, blessed are those who believe, especially in dependence on a piece of plastic. Have tried already. They incurred losses and reconnected, having lost at the same time a part of the market that has moved to Mir. And in case of disconnection from SWIFT, another system is developed and functions.
      2. AAK
        AAK 12 March 2020 19: 53 New
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        Colleague, we are all telling you that the Turks do not have to attack our contingent in Syria so that Russia is squeezed out of this country. They will never do it first. Moreover, none of the Turkish leaders is going to attack the mainland Russia first. They can begin to peck Assad very seriously, having come up with a bunch of pretexts of varying degrees of fiction ... And just one or two bombings of our attacking Turkish columns by our aircraft are enough to at least close the Bosphorus and Turkish airspace and this is only the beginning (see posts by my and colleagues higher...)
  • Ural resident 12 March 2020 18: 58 New
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    With a big war, Turkey can really deliver a lot of trouble with its submarines. With American intelligence, they can become a formidable force, their submarines are good and plentiful, and here, as far as I know, the means of detection are still in the last century. The soldiers themselves will fight, the Turks are rather stubborn, but here the command structure is historically weak. The mobilization of their army for the crazy ideas of Erdoganushka will not bring anything good either, they will have to bear big losses and this will certainly spoil our relations for 100 years ahead. Khmeimim will not stand without the use of tactical weapons, but will there be a will. Striking with conventional calibers will not bring much damage. That is, they will have to fight on the ground, but here ours are certainly stronger. The topic with drones was apparently our General Staff specially "merged" to explore their capabilities. Complex counteraction systems were not activated, they were eventually shot down with old weapons and forces of the Syrian army, everything else, including communications, had to be studied in detail. That is, we will certainly win, but the Turks can deliver us a lot of troubles. Although in the end they will lose the state within the borders in which it now exists.
  • Garris199 13 March 2020 00: 03 New
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    And here, "carry the ball." The author naively believes that if we demolish the Turkish military bases of nuclear weapons, will the US rush to bomb Russia with strategic nuclear weapons? Do not tell my slippers.
  • Kazimir Prutikov 13 March 2020 19: 51 New
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    The answer to the question posed in the title of the article suggests itself. The Turkish army will not defeat the Russian, but there is a chance that we will lose this company. The main reason is supply. The Syrian army (which from a legal point of view is fighting for its territory, and we only provide assistance), depends entirely on our supply of ammunition, equipment and spare parts (I don’t know what about food and fuel). This dependency is critical. Any, even advanced technology during the war turns into ordinary scrap metal, if not with what to shoot! There are two critical points for supply - the Bosphorus and Gibraltar. The first is controlled by the Turks, the second by the British. During the signing of the Astana agreements, a miscalculation was made - the Turkish army was allowed to be officially in Syria, i.e. she is there legally in the designated areas. Therefore, the attack on these points by the Syrians can, in principle, be interpreted as an attack on Turkey. If Turkey claims to have been attacked, i.e. if she was at war with a neighboring state, then she can establish control over the movement of ships through the Bosphorus legally. NATO will not participate here, since the Alliance only guarantees the protection of its members' territory. Can NATO establish control over Gibraltar? Maybe if it is "proved" that military cargo was transported through it for Libya. Well, for such "evidence" the British are experts. In general, we get the second Donbas. If we do everything through one place and never bring anything to the end, then the results will always be consistent!
  • Chaldon48 16 March 2020 13: 39 New
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    To build reasonings like: “What would happen if this happened under such circumstances”, it is possible at closed staff games or in science fiction novels, a very interesting entertainment, on a full stomach.
  • Artavazdych 17 March 2020 02: 46 New
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    1. There is a historical reality - we always beat the Turks with a smaller number. Well, or almost always. (Well, yes, we are waiting for cries from that side)
    2. If the Turks and crush Hmeimim, Tartus and generally our limited contingent in Syria ... I can’t find that video of the actions of our VKS in one of the first days. It seems to be deleted. There, just the settlement of the Barmalei was erased, something like Hiroshima. Very "spectacular". A vacuum bomb, or whatever it is.