We can get a potential “Crimean scenario” or “Tsushima-2” in Syria. Our defeat at a remote theater, where we cannot concentrate a full-fledged grouping capable of opposing the enemy.
Neither peace nor war
The meeting between Russian President V.V. Putin and Turkish President R. Erdogan did not bring any side of visible success. Each side remained of its own opinion, and further events in Syria will inevitably show the correctness of this conclusion.
On March 5, 2020, negotiations were held. On March 6, a truce entered into force. Both sides agreed on the status quo. That is, the Syrian army and its allies remained the territory occupied over two months. Turkey retained only part of Idlib, having lost control over the M-4 and M-5 routes, which worsens the ability of the Turkish army and pro-Turkish gangs to control territories and supply, truncate their food supply, etc. Also, the territory of the buffer territory necessary for Ankara to dump masses of refugees. At the same time, Idlib militants with the help of Turkey avoided a complete defeat. It is not surprising that on the 8th, Erdogan announced that he was ready to resume hostilities in Syria. At the same time, clashes between Turks and Kurds continue. Turkey is building up a military force in Syria and asks NATO for support in the fight against "terrorists."
Turkish leader Erdogan cannot retreat. Firstly, the stakes are too high. He must not lose face in front of his supporters and the "party of war." Otherwise, loss of trust and power. Secondly, a lot is at stake. The Turkish "Sultan" is playing a card to restore the sphere of influence of the Ottoman Empire in the Middle East. Hence the three wars that, in fact, are waged by the Turks. With Kurds (including Iraq), in Syria and Libya. There is a whole knot of contradictions. The Kurdish question is very painful for the Turkish elite. Ankara also needs control over part of Syria in order to create a buffer state entity, which can then replace the regime of B. Assad. The Turks participate in the "gas war", promoting their project (along with Qatar) and striking at other people's projects. Erdogan turns his country into a regional gas hub, which will allow him to influence European politics. Hence the struggle for the Cypriot shelves, participation in the war in Libya and the conflict with Greece.
Thus, Erdogan decided to use the window of opportunity that fell to him to recreate Ottoman Empire 2. The moment is rather favorable. The United States under Trump gradually abandons the position of a superpower in the Near and Middle East (Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, refusal to fight with Iran, etc.). Washington will not actively engage in Middle Eastern affairs until the November elections. Iran, China, France, Great Britain, Russia and Israel conduct their policies. Iraq and Syria are destroyed. The region is in chaos.
The threat of a new Russian-Turkish war
All this poses a threat to a new military clash between Russia and Turkey. Moscow is still evading a direct conflict, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to do so. The conflict in Idlib exacerbated the situation. The current situation does not suit either Damascus, nor Moscow, nor Ankara. There is no solid foundation for peace. And a new round of confrontation is inevitable. It began literally immediately after the truce.
On the whole, Russia's situation is extremely unstable. Without control of the straits, she cannot guarantee the supply of her group and bases in Syria. Turkey has a common border with Syria and can quickly form a group that has complete superiority over the remnants of the Syrian army and our forces. At the same time, there is a hostile attitude on the part of other "partners" in the Syrian war: Saudi Arabia, England, France, the United States, NATO as a whole, and Israel. Iran is also not worth hoping for help (Russia and Iran are only tactical allies). At any time, Tehran will become an adversary or take a position of neutrality, when Russia needs support.
Israel has its own interests. The Russian group plays the role of a “buffer” that protects Israel from jihadists and Iranian and pro-Iranian groups. At the same time, Israel regularly bombes Iran’s positions in Syria, since the transformation of this country into a strategic bridgehead of Tehran does not correspond to the interests of Jerusalem. Therefore, Moscow turns a blind eye for Israeli air and missile attacks on Syrian territory.
Thus, we get a potential “Crimean scenario” (Crimean War of 1853-1856) or “Tsushima 2”. Russia's defeat at a remote theater, where it cannot concentrate and supply a full-fledged grouping capable of opposing the enemy. At the same time, the Russian power and the people receive nothing from Syria (the current benefits from resources and military bases are minimal), and without control of the torrential zone, Moscow could lose everything at any time. Russia has no benefits from a “partnership” with Turkey, and feeds a strategic and historical adversary. The “Turkish stream” brought only losses, its prospects in the current conditions are very vague. Moscow does not have a full-fledged ally in the person of Iran. Tehran does not need a war with Ankara, the Iranians see the enemy in Israel, who is the "friend" of the Kremlin.
As a result, we can see either the inglorious withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria, or a new Russian-Turkish war. But the war is local, only at the Syrian theater. Both scenarios are negative. Both the conclusion and the defeat will be used for the further buildup of the domestic political situation. And in a new round of global and domestic Russian economic crisis (the collapse of the policy of the pipe - the energy "power"), this is very dangerous.
Russian historian. V. Klyuchevsky noted:
«History “This is not a teacher, but a supervisor: she does not teach anything, but severely punishes her for not knowing the lessons.”