China predicts a record drop in trade performance


A sharp decline in China's trade performance is expected. Experts talk about the reasons for this and possible scenarios for the development of the situation.


This information was published by Bloomberg, referring to surveys of analysts.

They consider the reason for the drop in indicators to be too long holidays due to the lunar New Year and the epidemic of coronavirus.

The recession in China will negatively affect the entire global economy, which is heavily dependent on Chinese exports and imports. Experts suggest that the volume of products supplied from China will decrease by about 20 percent.

They also believe that an instant correction of the situation will not happen, as many Chinese industrial enterprises have significantly reduced their capacities, and quarantine is continuing in some areas, due to which the level of consumption in the country has decreased dramatically.

A decrease in the economic indicators of China also reflects a decrease in demand for Chinese-made goods due to fear of infection. This is especially true of developed countries.

You can more accurately predict the situation after March 7, when Beijing will publish statistics for the first two months of the year.

But in the forecasts of experts there is also a share of optimism. Some of them believe that not only a drop in indicators, but also their subsequent recovery will be fast and record-breaking. This can be facilitated by government support. A number of possible measures to restore the country's economic indicators were identified by Sino-Ocean Capital representative Gai Xinzhe:

If China takes vigorous measures to develop infrastructure, real estate, build 5G networks, sell cars and so on, this will give an impetus to the global economy and in turn will ease pressure on external demand.
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  1. Fedorov 6 March 2020 14: 56 New
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    News damn ... Yes, all and sundry forecast such crap for a long time. I personally drum. hi
    1. Deniska999 6 March 2020 15: 06 New
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      Yes, only the whole world, including us, is tied to China. Let them be bad, everyone will be bad.
      1. Fedorov 6 March 2020 15: 11 New
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        Personally, I do not care. I once lived under Brezhnev, Chernenko and Andropov, Gorbachev and Yeltsin ... How can I still be scared? And in Ukraine, even more so .. wink Natsik would have shot ... Yes, the hunt has not yet been announced. So the Chinese maritime signs to me a light bulb. I have not lost weight over all the years, as I was 85 kg of live weight, so I remain.
        1. Po-tzan 6 March 2020 15: 30 New
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          Quote: Fedorov
          Natsik would have shot ... Yes, the hunt has not yet been announced.


          Announced back in 2014. Get up from the couch, go to Donetsk. You will receive further instructions upon arrival.
          1. Fedorov 6 March 2020 15: 36 New
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            No, I was there until the mess of shooting for power and cash flows and Russian humanitarian aid began. They will put things in order - I’ll go .. The more familiar places, I kind of lived there.
            1. Piramidon 6 March 2020 15: 41 New
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              Quote: Fedorov
              They will put things in order - I’ll go.

              So on a fig then tryndet and a t-shirt on breasts to tear? Or shooting only from the couch?
              Natsik would have shot ... Yes, the hunt has not yet been announced
              1. Po-tzan 6 March 2020 15: 58 New
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                Quote: Piramidon
                So on a fig then tryndet and a t-shirt on breasts to tear? Or shooting only from the couch?

                He would have shot all the Natsiks. But even the shoulder hurts today :)
                1. Piramidon 6 March 2020 17: 14 New
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                  Quote: PO-tzan
                  But even the shoulder hurts today :)

                  And who will fight the keyboard with the Natsiks if he goes to the front. request
                2. Fedorov 6 March 2020 23: 09 New
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                  If it’s at the training ground, it hurts, a bruise, because it’s not regular there is normal. especially. with a bare torso. Try it ... AK-74 minimum.
    2. Maz
      Maz 6 March 2020 16: 25 New
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      China is Russia's unspoken ally in the confrontation with the United States and NATO. It will be bad for China, and there will be returns to the Russian Federation.
      1. Chaldon48 6 March 2020 18: 57 New
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        China is only a temporary travel companion and competitor of the United States in the struggle for world resources, they have long considered Siberia to be a lost patrimony and are doing everything possible to stick to its resources more tightly, and they need a strong Russia for China, an obedient raw-material traitor.
    3. vadim dok 7 March 2020 19: 23 New
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      Even $ 45 oil (For the Urals brand)?
    4. vadim dok 7 March 2020 19: 24 New
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      Do you even care about Urals $ 45 oil?
  2. dzvero 6 March 2020 15: 00 New
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    Coronavirus for the Chinese leadership, of course, is a headache and a serious problem. On the other hand - a lifesaver. Much can be attributed to economics and social policy. Last year, a decline in growth was one way or another outlined. You can refuse from agreements with the United States ... Yes, and just a good reason to tighten the nuts ... Let's see how the Chinese leadership has imagination.
  3. Lord of the Sith 6 March 2020 15: 12 New
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    The main thing is that the product does not go up in price on alik))

    In general, all this hype with the virus is somehow artificial.
    1. AU Ivanov. 6 March 2020 15: 28 New
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      That's right - artificial. And this is by no means a break-in of a combat virus - it is a break-in of new political technologies.
      1. Old bun 6 March 2020 15: 29 New
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        exactly! the mortality rate is higher, and it affects them more.
      2. Lord of the Sith 6 March 2020 15: 29 New
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        It is weak for a war virus, and it is successfully treated. But all the news only about this and trumpet, distract the consciousness of people from something.
        That is the question, from what?
        1. dzvero 6 March 2020 18: 53 New
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          Most likely the West is setting the stage for very unpopular decisions. Artificial force majeure, and you can write off a lot. And to do such that under normal conditions would be political suicide. In about two months, it will begin when the initial outbreak of infection occurs in most EU countries and in the USA. Very timely entot virus turned up ...
        2. Dimak 7 March 2020 09: 25 New
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          Quote: Lord of the Sith
          It is weak for a war virus, and it is successfully treated.
          Kindly, you are such a dock, tell us how this virus is treated?
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  4. Vyacheslav p 6 March 2020 15: 52 New
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    They will raise interest rates by 10% -20% and that's it. As everything was Chinese, so be it. My leadership (and it is Chinese) is not steamed at all. They said that on the other hand, all stale goods are fused, and even without promotions and other marketing moves. In May, deliveries will begin.
    1. Alex Justice 7 March 2020 10: 06 New
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      We have lost toilet paper. They will sell only 4 rolls per hand.
      The Chinese are buying milk powder.
  5. NF68 6 March 2020 18: 14 New
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    Even if this prediction really comes true, after the Chinese quickly catch up on everything that they temporarily missed.
  6. Vladimir Mashkov 6 March 2020 19: 49 New
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    Of course, I will be accused of conspiracy theories and all the associated sins. But tell me, please, WHO is most interested in what has happened? Who benefits most? WHO never stops to achieve YOUR goals?
    1. Alex Justice 7 March 2020 10: 08 New
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      America is happy. Strong China competitor.
  7. Moskovit 7 March 2020 01: 25 New
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    Yes, all the factories have already begun to work. The world can breathe easy. Now there are more patients from Europe than from China.
    1. Dimak 7 March 2020 09: 31 New
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      Quote: Moskovit
      Yes, all the factories have already begun to work. The world can breathe easy. Now there are more patients from Europe than from China.
      The whole world, and Russia in particular, received a very small call, which can be when they get hung up on one supplier. No, yes, to use this moment to rebuild their own industries. But no, we will be glad that the Chinese returned.
      1. Moskovit 7 March 2020 11: 05 New
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        You are right, everyone immediately felt their vulnerability. But for a large-scale transfer of production home, this applies not only to Russia; huge funds and political will are needed. Therefore, it’s cheaper to wait.
        It is also interesting to observe how neither nuclear weapons, nor ACG, nor the threat of war, and not the most terrible disease, immediately shook the seemingly mighty China. In Mao’s time, no one would have noticed this coronovirus. Globalization!
        1. gsev 7 March 2020 23: 11 New
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          Quote: Moskovit
          immediately shook the seemingly mighty China.

          I suppose that after the coronavirus, the Chinese will simply count the money. If earlier, for the sake of show-offs, in order to defeat Russian truck manufacturers in a tender for one of the Arab countries, the Chinese car factory sold its cars far below cost and demanded compensation from the state. I suppose that I received the full compensation. So now the Chinese state will not compensate for such ponte costs. I suppose that with smart leadership, the Chinese state will only become stronger as a result of the coronavirus. But Europe will cope with the virus is another question.