The truce in Idlib: will it violate


The meeting between Vladimir Putin and Recep Erdogan in Moscow ended with the conclusion of an armistice agreement in Idlib. But will the agreements affect the real situation in this Syrian province?


The truce in Idlib officially came at 00:00 on March 6, 2020. A six-kilometer-wide safety corridor is being created around the M4 highway, and by March 15, Russian and Turkish troops should organize joint patrols in this area. It was the Hama-Aleppo highway that they planned to take control of the Syrian government forces, which launched an offensive in February 2020.

Just an hour before the ceasefire began, militants fired from the Aleppo-Damascus highway with artillery, destroying at least five cars. Syrian government forces repelled the attacks of militants in the area of ​​the village of Dadih and prevented another attack to repel Serakib.

However, after the start of the ceasefire, the Syrian Arab army stopped all military operations in the designated area. The Turkish troops are also observing a ceasefire while preparing to jointly patrol the territory around the highway with the Russian military.

At the same time, in the northern region of Idlib, movements of Turkish troops were noticed. According to Aleppo AMC, a convoy of armored vehicles, infantry fighting vehicles, artillery pieces and trucks passed through the Kafr-Lusin border crossing and headed to the southern part of the province, in the direction of the observation posts of the Turkish armed forces.

But it should be understood that the militants who operate in Idlib province are not formally subordinate to the Turkish military command and can still carry out armed attacks and provocations. Moreover, they, as has already happened before, can generally use the ceasefire to strengthen their positions in the province of Idlib. In the event that any questions arise regarding the observance of the ceasefire, Ankara will answer that the Syrian opposition’s formations are not subordinate to the Turkish command, and accordingly there are no levers of influence on them.

It is clear that for Turkey, good relations with Russia are still more important than demonstrating integrity in the issue of the situation in the Syrian province. But one must understand that the radical groups operating in the north of Syria for many years will not give up their positions and the areas they control will not yield to government troops.

In addition, the truce concerns only the province of Idlib, and in other provinces of Syria, including in the north of the country, clashes between government forces and various armed groups continue, as skirmishes between the radical groups themselves continue.

Accordingly, the problem is simply frozen for a certain period, but not resolved. And Turkey, at least as long as Recep Erdogan is in power in the country, will not give up support for Turkoman and Arab-Sunni forces in northern Syria. In order to provide this support, it is absolutely not necessary to take a direct part in the conflict, it is enough to transfer weapons, ammunition and “volunteers”, which may be the same cadre military personnel of the Turkish army.

There is no doubt that the ceasefire will be violated by radical groups, which means that the Syrian government forces will have to react to these violations sooner or later. Therefore, one can hardly count on the long term of the ceasefire.

The future of Idlib is closely connected with the future of all of Syria as a single state, and, as you know, it is torn by internal contradictions of an ethnic and religious nature, to which the economic and political interests of a number of other states join.
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  1. paul3390 6 March 2020 14: 08 New
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    Will definitely be. Erdogan - he is his own boss, he wanted - he gave, he wanted - he took it. His promises are worthless. Yes, and Assad - still need to somehow free the native land from the invaders ..
    1. DMB 75 6 March 2020 14: 12 New
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      I agree-"There is no doubt that the ceasefire will be violated by radical groups, which means that the Syrian government forces will have to respond to these violations sooner or later."
      1. 210ox 6 March 2020 14: 19 New
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        This Idlib will have to be squeezed to the aul ...
        1. Mar.Tirah 6 March 2020 14: 59 New
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          Quote: 210ox
          This Idlib will have to be squeezed to the aul ...

          After the first call, they didn’t sting badly.
          But it’s still far away from a complete victory. The coalition that vowed to fight Isil finally showed what it really is doing there. That is, it is carrying out armed intervention. Only all the “fighters” have different goals, therefore there is no unity.
          1. Romario_Argo 7 March 2020 10: 18 New
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            Turkey sent troops about 15000. The feeling that the fighting was quiet, the Turks went into a dead defense. The militants are again building up strength. The question is where did the strength come from? - and so already 6100 + of the wounded 2500 were digested.
            I believe that it is necessary to advance, and to crush the entire province of Idlib, to the borders with Afrin. The faster the better.
            CAA the most sane divisions in this area:
            25th Special Forces Brigade, 4th Tank (fact. Spn), 11th Panzer, 9th Panzer, 5th, 7th, 30th Republican Guard of the Special Forces + our 5th DShK (7 Br. ) to help where you need to shut up Turkish self-propelled guns and MLRS (!)
          2. Grits 8 March 2020 15: 44 New
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            Quote: Mar. Tira
            After the first call, they didn’t sting badly.

            After the next violations of the truce, my Syrians and I will say again that they are tired and again beat on bash-bazookas. And what is now painted over with raspberry color will be painted over in red.
        2. Insurgent 7 March 2020 05: 23 New
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          Quote: 210ox
          This Idlib will have to be squeezed to the aul ...

          Idlib city (center of the province), or the entire province ("Big Idlib")? This is the crucial issue.
    2. Nyrobsky 6 March 2020 16: 48 New
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      Quote: paul3390
      Will definitely be. Erdogan - he is his own boss, he wanted - he gave, he wanted - he took it.

      In principle, he behaved like that before the start of the CAA attack. Ignored the shelling by the forces of the militants of the positions of the SAA, the suburbs of Aleppo and the flights of drones in the direction of Hmeimim. Now he was taught a visual lesson that you don’t need to behave like that and squeezed out half of Idlib. I had to remember everything and fly to an audience in the Kremlin. Would he want to repeat this experience in order to lose control of Idlib altogether? Most likely, he himself will begin to oust the insane from the zone of responsibility, so that they do not prematurely set him up. We will see how much he learned the lesson.
    3. Alex Nevs 6 March 2020 18: 46 New
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      Be sure to break. Nobody canceled the provocation.
  2. Killemall 6 March 2020 14: 15 New
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    The truce in Idlib: will it violate

    and why else do you need ceasefire agreements? take a breath, regroup, drag reserves and rushed on.
    And anyway ... what kind of truce can there be in principle?
  3. Strashila 6 March 2020 14: 42 New
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    Naturally, for this, in fact, a truce is concluded in order to break it later.
    1. Moreover, in the negotiations of the participants there were only two of at least five! There will always be an opportunity to blame violations on someone else.
  4. iouris 6 March 2020 14: 53 New
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    There is a third party that has no obligation.
  5. parusnik 6 March 2020 16: 21 New
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    The truce in Idlib: will it violate
    ... And then ... The people promised an empire ... but does not add up ..
  6. Vladimir Mashkov 6 March 2020 19: 38 New
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    Trucelessly will certainly violate the truce! And active hostilities will certainly resume. You need to be prepared for them. The question is WHEN.
  7. bandabas 6 March 2020 19: 46 New
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    What? Again? On an old rake (that is, poisonous Turkish tomatoes)?
    1. Tank hard 6 March 2020 21: 12 New
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      Quote: bandabas
      On an old rake (that is, poisonous Turkish tomatoes)?

      No matter how funny it may sound, but a very effective thing (IMHO). repeat
  8. Tank hard 6 March 2020 21: 11 New
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    The Turks again proved to everyone that trusting them is pointless. All one will do some muck.
    1. Salty 7 March 2020 09: 08 New
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      Quote: Tank Hard
      All one will do some muck

      To myself. They already did one - they lost half an idlib and hit their face in the mud.
  9. nikvic46 7 March 2020 07: 39 New
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    On the one hand, Turkey was held back by the supply of S-400 in April. On the other hand, Erdogan scored too much acceleration in his rhetoric.
  10. Alex Russia 7 March 2020 08: 50 New
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    Will the Turks violate the truce in Idlib? Are you serious, is this a type of question? Are there really naive people who believe in some kind of truce with the Turks?
    1. Salty 7 March 2020 09: 06 New
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      Quote: Alex Russia
      Are you serious, is this a type of question?

      No, this is the type of response:

      Quote: Alex Russia
      Putin will not be left with anything, most likely Idlib will have to surrender, as the Turks showed their teeth. The only problem is whether Erdogan will be limited only to Idlib? Most likely not, he has already expressed his opinion and will go to the end - Assad’s regime must be destroyed. Turkey smelled of blood, and at best for us - the Turks chop off some of their territories and increase their borders in the south, but in the worst they will be extinguished to a victorious end. The task of Russia will be how nicely to get out of this situation so as not to face the dirt, perhaps Putin will offer new lender to the Sultan in the form of which next megaprojects in Turkey at the expense of naturally Russian taxpayers

      Still have questions? wink
      1. Alex Russia 7 March 2020 11: 05 New
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        Man, so you don’t retype it for me and put dislikes, but send it to others, I understand all this as a white day, but others apparently do not ask such questions very often
        1. Salty 7 March 2020 11: 09 New
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          Quote: Alex Russia
          Man, so you do not retype it for me and put dislikes, but send it to others

          You were not on the field where I was making a need.

          Quote: Alex Russia
          I understand all this as a white day

          I, too, understand everything about you. Like a white day and twice two.

          Quote: Alex Russia
          but others apparently not very often asked similar questions

          Do not be sad, I think, everything will soon become obvious to others regarding you.
          1. Alex Russia 7 March 2020 11: 12 New
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            Man urgently call these numbers!
            +7 495 242-23-32
            +7 495 952-88-33
            +7 495 358-35-57
            +7 495 614-26-18
            1. Salty 7 March 2020 11: 18 New
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              Quote: Alex Russia
              +7 495 242-23-32


              Quote: Alex Russia
              Man urgently call these numbers!

              It is good that you know these numbers. I do not need them yet, thanks. laughing
              1. Alex Russia 7 March 2020 11: 38 New
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                Not at all, I tried for you, spent the whole 10 minutes until I found them on the Internet! All the same you call, do not start :)