Russian submarine fleet: so afraid of it or what?
David Ex from The National Interest produced a very original analysis: “Watch Out! Russian Submarines Are Prowling Off the US Coast ».
On the one hand, a schukher, the Russians came and I will not save them, on the other hand, the people, we don’t panic, everything will be a hamburger and a stake.
But American admirals are not very pleased with the growing activity of Russian submarines off their coasts.
This is normal. This is generally logical. You just need to remember the "good old" times of the Cold War, when the jambs of Soviet submarines were scared away by US aircraft carriers, lugged inside warrants, in general, they acted as masters of the oceans.
No wonder. The US location is twofold in itself. On the one hand, the country occupies the entire continent. Okay, not all, but I'm sure no one will blame me for the fact that I do not consider Canada a country that can say something like that across the United States. Well, Mexico too.
So the United States is fully insured against conflicts on its land. While in the world there is no one who is able to arrange a landing operation on the coast of the country.
But to come closer under water, to swim up and shy away with something very heavy, nuclear, and with a separable warhead ... Yes, so that without a chance to intercept ...
Aw, aircraft carriers, how are you? Nothing?
The idea of floating airfields pushed into the ocean and keeping nobody within the shot range is a very competent concept. But for an atomic ship that goes at a depth of half a kilometer, and in case of great luck, it can only be detected by a hydrophone. Airplanes, satellites, something else ...
In general, for a submarine this is so ...
That is why the US military very ambiguously perceived the appearance of Russian submarines near their shores.
And buddy David began to console his readers. Say, do not worry, the Russians are swimming, and they’ll get away. And in ten years they will not have any submarines left in order to seriously threaten the United States.
The question is for those readers who are in the compartment: and who will say how many of our nuclear submarines are needed to seriously puzzle Americans?
If one is Yellowstone and the second is Washington?
Last year, the Americans spotted eight of our boats. And two in the test exits. So the Americans have reason to believe that Russia doubled the number of submarine exits. And it cannot but strain. Because to counter these submarines, in theory, you need to triple the number of ships of the US Navy. To search for needles (submarines) in a haystack (ocean).
In fact, everything is not so bad. Eight of our submarines took part in the exercises, and two were on a test trip.
But these two months, during which the exercises went, greatly agitated the American naval command. Naturally, no one in the United States believed in the defensive essence of the exercises in the ocean, they are not defending off the coast of the enemy, even if it’s potential, which means that the intentions of the Russians should be regarded exclusively as a manifestation of aggression of the highest level.
This is a very significant statement. And it would be even cooler if, as an argument, Ex would not cite some data received from ... sources in the intelligence of Norway.
Well, listen, it’s not serious at all! Refer to the intelligence of Norway, which has been searching for Russian boats in its waters for so many years and cannot find the ONLY Baltic submarine fleet - Well, really, not serious at all!
However, the commander of the Second Fleet (urgently resurrected from the non-existence of a reserve in 2018), Andrew Lewis stated that "the east coast is no longer a safe haven for American ships." In February 2020.
Well, I do not agree with the admiral. To the west, too, you can throw someone, it is very possible. Guys will be pulled from Vladivostok, if necessary. And the fleet, which has simply stood in reserve since 2011, is unlikely to be able to become such an effective tool.
“We are seeing an ever-increasing number of Russian submarines deployed in the Atlantic, and these submarines are more capable than ever to deploy over longer periods of time, with more deadly weapon systems,” said Lewis.
No, that’s logical! And why then still need to drive boats into the oceans, to teach and train crews, to develop new weapons systems? No, of course, it would be nice if rowing galleys went on the attack at the USA AUG, but here excuse me - we have what we have.
“Our new reality is that when our sailors go to sea, they can expect to act in a disputed space as soon as they leave Norfolk. “Our ships can no longer expect to operate in a safe place on the east coast or simply cross the Atlantic unhindered to operate elsewhere.”
And this is what the admiral says, under the command of 6 cruisers, 21 destroyers, 8 strategic submarines, 15 multi-purpose attack submarines and 13 patrol ships. And a bunch of completely new and powerful Poseidon anti-submarine aircraft.
Who would check the admiral's pants ... Well, who said that the US Navy simply must feel dry and comfortable anywhere in the World Ocean?
Apparently, Admiral Lewis really scared the public with his remarks, and the brave Interest employee Ex had to reassure the public.
Say, nothing, Moscow simply is not able to maintain the pace and very soon they simply will not have any submarines in order to keep the entire American continent in suspense.
At present, Russia has 62nd submarines of all classes. (In fact, there are 68 of them, the data of the Americans is somehow a little outdated.)
11 of them are strategic with ballistic rockets, 26 - nuclear with cruise missiles, the rest are multi-purpose. 22 diesel-electric we do not take into account, this is weapon close combat. A total of 59.
The remaining nine are special-purpose boats that are not intended to participate in combat operations.
The American expert says that the boats are old, built in the 80-90s, which means that they will soon reach the final. I do not agree, the age for nuclear powered ships is not very critical. Specially looked, but what about the star-striped?
Ok there. The freshest Ohio was built in 1997, and the first in 1984. And the new Columbia will go in the 30s.
And so who would talk about old boats ...
Meanwhile, once every two years, the Borey rises, which can be called anything but not an old boat. Given that there are actually 4 Boreevs in the ranks, the fifth (Prince Oleg) should be put into operation this year, and 4 more are under construction ...
Given that the construction of boats, which are part of the nuclear triad, is given the highest priority, and besides, we have not forgotten how to build them ...
So I would not be in a hurry with conclusions.
But they are sure of The National Interest: by the end of the 20s, by the beginning of the 30s, maximum 12 submarines will remain in the Russian Navy. The rest either completely fail, or become so old that it will be pointless to keep them in the fleet.
Where such confidence? Maybe we don’t know something like that? Let's watch. Moreover, American colleagues have a terrible figure of 28 submarines at their disposal. Everything that Russian shipbuilding can achieve in 10 years.
No, we have a lot of problems in building ships. But not enough to condemn the submarine fleet.
So let's see.
There is no point in taking diesel submarines for a reason that I already wrote about. So just a figure of 15 boats minimum and 20 maximum, if they do not disrupt the program - and that’s all.
We look at nuclear powered ships.
Project 949A Antey. 8 boats. The first boats came to the fleet in the late 80s. The last Antei was put into service in 1996. Six of them underwent repair and modernization. Two should be updated by 2022. Comparable to Ohio? Quite.
Project 671RTMK "Pike." 2 boats. They went into operation in the early 90s, modernized.
Project 945 Barracuda. 2 boats. It seems to be decided to upgrade to the level of the fourth generation. The boats are old (1983 and 1986), but apparently there is confidence in the correctness of the action.
Project 945A "Condor". 2 boats. They will also upgrade. In general, right, a titanium case is a titanium case.
Project 971 "Pike-B". 12 boats. Yes, unlike the Barracudas and Condors, the steel case is instead of titanium. Because it is debatable, the newer boats will work again.
Project 885 "Ash." One boat. In service since 2014. And two are planned for 2020.
Of course, unlike the American Navy, it is very motley, unfortunately. If you look like the Americans are watching, then yes, the first candidates for parsing are two Pikes. And that’s all. Something else, well, only in the case of deterioration, but I don’t have such data, so use a pitchfork to calculate how many boats can be written off in the next 10 years.
Perhaps some will write off. But really hardly a lot, because it would be worth pulling to the last. Let's take that there are 20 boats left. If we add all those under construction to this quantity, then we will get the same figure 28.
However, we still have the second class of nuclear submarines. SSBN. Suddenly so ...
Ryazan, the last of the project 667RBD Kalmar, of course, will be written off. The 1982 ship built long will not live, alas. Plus the “wet" launch of the missiles - well, still yesterday.
Project 667BDRM "Dolphin". 6 boats. They will still live, since they managed to rearm them on modern Sineva missiles. But it is the “Dolphins” that should replace the “Boreas” by 2030. Which is quite possible.
Project 941 "Shark". One boat. Converted to the Bulava missile, it was tested on it, and may still be living. Although it is possible Severstal and Arkhangelsk will be modernized and put into operation. Not excluded. I would be very happy about this.
Project 955 "Northwind." Three boats. It is planned to build until 2027 another seven cruisers of the modernized project 955A.
Thus, we get 10 (+9).
We put all the nuclear powered ships in one pile and get 38 ships. This is a bit bigger than what David Ex predicts. Well, obviously not 12. But a decrease, of course, will take place.
Summarizing everything, we get that in the most negative development of the situation in the Navy, 37 submarines will be operated. This, of course, is more than NI - 12 predicts. But a decrease in composition will still be significant.
If everything planned is completed, then we will have 41 nuclear submarines. This is minus the Dolphins, who did not understand. Now there are 46 of them. The difference in my opinion is not very big.
That is, there is certainly a difference in quantity, but let's take a sober look: it will be partially compensated by quality. And given the situation with the construction of nuclear submarines, which is better than diesel ones, there is no particular reason for concern.
Ian Ballantyne, David’s colleague, editor of another publication, Warships International Fleet Review, picked up the funeral howl. He also said many kind words to our submarine forces.
“Most strike submarines date from the 1980s and 90s. There are still quite a lot of old, Soviet ships carrying the main load, both shock submarines and boats with ballistic missiles. How many more of these old ships can be sent to the sea, awaiting the arrival of new ones, is a moot point.
The time will come when most of the Russian submarine forces both in the Northern Fleet and in the Pacific Fleet - the most important naval forces - will cease to function, leaving huge gaps. ”
The time will come when most of the Russian submarine forces both in the Northern Fleet and in the Pacific Fleet - the most important naval forces - will cease to function, leaving huge gaps. ”
Well, blessed are the believers ...
In fact, without hatred, the Russian submarine fleet is a more serious and reliable thing. We can build submarines, we can use them. And it is not for nothing that in the USA the admirals began to feel not very comfortable. There is logic in their behavior. It is very difficult to preserve the integrity of the country, which is very easy to get close to the underwater missile cruiser.
But simply waiting for the development of a positive scenario in our country is possible only when the cadres decide everything. When personnel from the bottom to the very top will not steal fuel from emergency generators, will not allow fires on repaired ships, will not continue to sink docks and ships out of the blue, they will not delay the construction of ships for several years.
Then everything will be fine with us, in fear of our enemies. I'd love to.
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