Is there a way out of the Syrian “maze”: on the interests of the parties


Photo by: kremlin.ru


The talks between Vladimir Putin and Recep Erdogan, scheduled for March 5, give hope for an end to at least the most acute phase of the confrontation in Syrian Idlib, which risks escalating into a full-blown armed conflict, whose participants are likely to be not only Russia and Turkey. However, even in the event of a temporary relaxation of tension, the main problems will most likely remain relevant, the first of which is the need to establish a permanent and stable peace in Syria. Is this achievable at all and on what does the arrival of peace on this long-suffering land depend? Is there a way out of the Syrian "maze"?

It’s worth trying to find an answer to such a difficult question with at least a brief overview of the interests and goals that the main forces that are present and active in the region are pursuing today. Letting go of Ankara’s imperial plans to create a quasi-state unit in northern Syria that is completely under its control or to join it in Turkey. Focus on the “minimum program” for Erdogan. This is causing maximum damage to the Kurdish armed forces, pushing them as far away as possible from the borders of Turkey, in fact, and providing an opportunity for their own armed forces to operate against the Kurds in the same Afrin.

However, this is only half the battle, and at the moment, alas, less. Having got involved in fights in Syria, Ankara suffered significant losses and now the main thing for it is to exit the fighting with minimal loss of face. This is especially true for Erdogan personally, who recently has absolutely nothing to brag about on either the domestic political or the economic fronts. If a small, but not at all a victorious war is added to this, the business for the president could end up very badly. On the one hand, he understands that further escalation is fraught with even greater sacrifices, on the other hand, he can no longer stop.

For Russia, the demands put forward by the Turks to "step aside" and withdraw their troops from Syria are clearly completely unacceptable. This would mean a complete collapse of the entire policy of Moscow, not only in this country, but also in the Middle East as a whole. And not only there, perhaps. Money, human lives, diplomatic and military efforts - everything will be thrown to the wind. It is unprofitable to quarrel with Ankara, I do not want to, but to capitulate in front of her - to sign her own inability to defend the interests of her allies and her own in a critical situation.

The Syrians are fighting and dying in Idlib for the most, perhaps, simple and unambiguous reasons. The elimination of the "adder" there and the control over strategic highways are vital for Damascus to begin the process of rebuilding the country from the ruins into which it was plunged by a long war. To achieve internal stability, without which it will await the fate of Libya. And this is not the worst case. The Syrians will not retreat under any circumstances.

Iran has its own interests in Syria - at least it is a territorial buffer between the Islamic Republic and Israel, which Tehran would not want to see pro-American and pro-Israeli.

Everything is simple with Europe: its leaders are scared to hiccups by the prospect of new waves of refugees, especially since Erdogan has already very kindly conducted a “substantive demonstration” of what strength and power they can be. Europeans, as usual, are ready to pay off, to act as peacekeepers, but just not to host new hundreds of thousands of war-destitute exiles from the Middle East. It would be extremely tempting for the United States to continue to fan the fire of war in Syria, and, even better, still get rid of the Bashar al-Assad that he hates and annoy the Russians as much as possible. Well, the Turks at the same time - for treachery and inconstancy. However, in light of the upcoming elections, Washington is unlikely to intervene on a large scale in the conflict. Rather, he will wash his hands and wait for the results.

Based on all this, the near future, not only of Idlib, but of the whole of Syria, to the greatest extent depends on whether the leaders of Russia and Turkey can find a clear compromise. An intermediate solution would be to move the situation to a level at which each side will get its own without big battles and frontal attacks, without advertising both the concessions made as a result of reaching agreements and the “bonuses” received in exchange for them.

In this case, Turkey will have to decide what is more important for it - solving problems with the Kurds or supporting the gangster anti-Assad "opposition". Damascus, obviously, still has some time to put up with the last pockets of resistance of its most irreconcilable enemies, not trying to completely eliminate them. For the sake of the opportunity, having gained control of the M-4 and M-5 routes, they can begin to restore the economy and infrastructure, they can do it there. It is important for Russia, having stood the pressure of Erdogan, not to give up its interests and, without diminishing its own presence and significance in the region, once again act as the most balanced and wise player in the Middle East.
Author:
Photos used:
Wikipedia / Negotiations on Syria in Sochi
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  1. Arlen 4 March 2020 16: 55 New
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    the near future, not only of Idlib, but of Syria as a whole, depends to the greatest extent on whether the leaders of Russia and Turkey can find a clear compromise.

    They will find. I do not know what a compromise will be, but the fact that it will be achieved, in my opinion, is 99%.
    1. Svarog 4 March 2020 17: 02 New
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      Quote: Arlen
      the near future, not only of Idlib, but of Syria as a whole, depends to the greatest extent on whether the leaders of Russia and Turkey can find a clear compromise.

      They will find. I do not know what a compromise will be, but the fact that it will be achieved, in my opinion, is 99%.

      Someone will have to give way .. the only question is to whom ..
      1. Arlen 4 March 2020 17: 05 New
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        Quote: Svarog
        Someone will have to give way .. the only question is to whom ..

        But this is a very interesting question, the answer to which is so far under the question mark ...
      2. New Year day 4 March 2020 17: 14 New
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        Quote: Svarog
        Someone will have to give way .. the only question is to whom ..

        compromise is mutual concessions
      3. Ros 56 4 March 2020 18: 18 New
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        I even guess who, but I won’t tell. laughing
      4. Nyrobsky 4 March 2020 20: 28 New
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        Quote: Svarog
        Someone will have to give way .. the only question is to whom ..

        They will come to a consensus. Everything rests on its laurels. CAA does not advance further, and Ankara does not retreat further and, like the first time, guarantees that it will sort the moderate from the insane. The situation will settle down for a while. A regrouping of forces and assets will be carried out on both sides. However, given the fact that the militants are not paid for absenteeism, they will once again disrupt the truce, thereby substituting Erdogan as a non-guaranteeing guarantor and provide an excuse for starting an SAA offensive. So in the interests of the Sultan, in order to maintain his presence in Idlib, somehow it is necessary to really reduce the insane livestock by sending them for recycling to the same Libya. In compensation for moral costs, Erdogan will announce that he was able to stop the advance of the "regime" troops with "Turkish forces" who suffered "100500 times losses" and are now afraid to contact Ankara. Damascus, in turn, will announce that it defeated the terrorists and returned to its control 50% of the province of Idlib, and the army needs to be equipped and re-equipped. Russia will express itself in the sense that diplomatic measures have succeeded in stabilizing the situation and returning the process to a peaceful track. As a result, everything is in chocolate and there are no losers. At least for a while. Something like this ... winked
        1. vargo 4 March 2020 23: 40 New
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          I am 90% sure that it will be so. Just painted everything exactly as requested now. Everyone needs a pause, and we need to have time to consolidate certain results. Everyone has something to be proud of, and they will pause. Only at the expense of the militants, I think they know how to explain very clearly where and how to shoot. Just the shooting was always agreed.
    2. Honest Citizen 4 March 2020 17: 05 New
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      A compromise may be found. Just the initial conditions for negotiations are very inconvenient. Erdogan is just stupidly blackmailing the EU so that they would put pressure on the Russian Federation from this side as well. The US request for missile assistance is also a kind of blackmail of the Russian Federation, especially after the sale of S-400 to Turkey.
      In general, we will see.
  2. Mar.Tirah 4 March 2020 16: 57 New
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    The Kremlin has already voiced its position on the indivisibility of the Syrian territories. For this, the CPVS was created, there are already agreements with the sheikhs on the transition of entire regions to the side of the SAR. God bless Idlib, and there you can talk about the Golan Heights.
    1. vargo 4 March 2020 23: 47 New
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      With the Golan, everything is much more complicated, and the story there is a long one. Still, whatever one may say, Israel will fight for them many times stronger than Turkey. I think everyone understands that Turkey has not seriously fought. The hands were nevertheless tied by a number of circumstances (the main one, of course, of the Russian Federation). And Israel, who ate the dog on forceful responses, is sure to be able to react very painfully. There, even if you deal with the issue, then preparation is important serious. But I wouldn’t touch them to the end, it’s better not to create unnecessary tensions while others are enough.
      I think they would rather take up the Kurds in the north again, again divide their land, and introduce patrols, then a number of units will be forced to go under the protectorate of the SAA, and then a conversation with the USA, slowly but surely they will have to be pushed out of there. Somewhere in between there will again be a series of clashes in Idlib, well, something like that, slowly recovering everything.
  3. Malyuta 4 March 2020 16: 57 New
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    Most importantly, all parties to the conflict should be negotiable. And it will turn out, as with Minsk-1,2 ............ 1 ......
  4. Vladimir61 4 March 2020 17: 08 New
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    Exist! Forget about situational partners and ineffective “agreements”. Be guided only by their national interests and their commitments - to destroy the hotbeds of terrorism in Syria.
  5. Lannan Shi 4 March 2020 17: 10 New
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    That is fundamentally wrong with Iran. He does not need any buffer. Iran needs a foothold.
  6. anjey 4 March 2020 17: 12 New
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    It seems to me that if it were a matter of the interests of Russia, Syria and Turkey, we would have agreed a long time ago, many other players add fuel to the fire and play on contradictions, wanting to get the chestnuts out of the fire, in every way encouraging the Sultan, but not giving firm guarantees. with the help of the Turks, the United States, Europe and Israel dream of squeezing Russia out of the BV, only Iran without Russia will fall there too quickly, its cautious position for now is not very clear.
  7. Odysseus 4 March 2020 17: 13 New
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    Already wrote today, strategically the war for the Russian Federation has been lost for a long time no matter what the real goals of the authorities pursued by engaging in this adventure. But as you know, even when you are eaten you have two options.
    What can be offered constructive?
    1) The most reasonable thing is to achieve Turkey’s territorial shifts in Idlib and at least some peace guarantees. Then once again announce victory and finally leave. Having left behind him, in addition to the original Tartus, Khimki. Assad’s defense and restoration of the part of the country that he controls is left to Iran and its proxies. But there is a big minus, there are no guarantees that Iran alone can cope with this. And then everything will roll in the opposite direction. And here even the electorate with brainwashed completely by television may have a question - why did they fight?
    2) Turn the tide and end the war, thus ensuring Assad's territorial integrity. Then, at least from the point of view of public relations, it will be possible to talk about victory. But for this it is necessary to fight with Turkey and to drive the Americans out of their bases, plus to come to an agreement with the Kurds. The problem here is that only Iran can do this by using, in addition to the IRGC and its proxies, a regular army. Obviously, they won’t do it. We can’t do it purely technically, there isn’t so much manpower and resources, and the supply of the group passes through the same Turkey.
    1. dzvero 4 March 2020 19: 24 New
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      But I, from the side, do not see a loss. What happened was expected - a clash with Turkish interests in idlib. And the fact that the Syrians began the liberation of the province clearly indicates the existence of a plan, and not the wishes of Assad's left heel. Not in that position ...
      Let's wait until tomorrow. Let’s see if the sultan is negotiable or, having bit a bit, trample on the forehead ... The recent history of Russian foreign policy has proved balanced actions in combination with extraordinary decisions. Kakby before Erdogan the question was raised not what to do, but what will pay off ...
  8. gmb
    gmb 4 March 2020 17: 15 New
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    I did not understand what buffer between Israel and Iran, if there is not only a common border, but a couple of countries between fit.
    1. Odysseus 4 March 2020 17: 22 New
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      Quote: gmb
      I did not understand what buffer between Israel and Iran, if there is not only a common border, but a couple of countries between fit.

      This refers to the idea of ​​a Shiite corridor from Iraq to Lebanon. The author simply scribbled her.
      1. gmb
        gmb 4 March 2020 17: 55 New
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        You are very correct. smile
  9. Gvardeetz77 4 March 2020 17: 33 New
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    In recent years, our guarantor met with the Ottoman and talked on the phone more often than I did with my neighbor on the landing, and the agreements voiced after the meetings are always optimistic, but the results are somehow not very good, but what are there, some shitty results .. .
  10. cniza 4 March 2020 17: 37 New
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    For the sake of the opportunity, having gained control of the M-4 and M-5 highways, they can begin to restore the economy and infrastructure, they can do it there. It is important for Russia, having withstood the pressure of Erdogan, not to give up its interests and, without diminishing its own presence and significance in the region, once again act as the most balanced and wise player in the Middle East.


    That would be an acceptable solution ...
  11. atalef 4 March 2020 17: 46 New
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    We abandon Ankara’s imperial plans to create a quasi-state unit in northern Syria that is completely under its control or to join it in Turkey.

    And why should one give up? this is exactly the main goal
    Having got involved in fights in Syria, Ankara suffered significant losses and now the main thing for it is to get out of the fighting with minimal loss of face.

    are there proofs? Chief.
    So far, from Ankara's side, everything looks pretty positive.
    For Russia, the demands put forward by the Turks to "step aside" and withdraw their troops from Syria are clearly completely unacceptable.

    Is it really about the withdrawal of troops from Syria?
    in my opinion, it was a withdrawal of troops in accordance with the Sochi accords
    The Syrians fight and die in Idlib for the most, perhaps, simple and unambiguous reasons. The elimination of the "adder" there and the control over strategic highways are vital for Damascus to begin the process of rebuilding the country from ruins,

    It seems that this prevents the restoration of the country.
    author take a map and see.
    Idlib is far from all Syria
    To achieve internal stability, without which it will await the fate of Libya. And this is not the worst case. The Syrians will not retreat under any circumstances.

    And what then agreed earlier. By the way, I generally do not particularly see the difference between LDNR and Idlib.
    Identical quasistructures supported by a cross country.
    Iran has its own interests in Syria - at least it is a territorial buffer between the Islamic Republic and Israel,

    Does the author have a two in geography?
    Between Israel and Iran are - Syria and Iraq - but no side Idlib
    Everything is quite simple with Europe: its leaders are hiccuped by the prospect of new waves of refugees, especially since Erdogan has already very kindly conducted a “substantive demonstration” of what kind of strength and power they can be.

    strange statement, but the author does not specify? Is it not from Assad’s troops that refugees from Idlib are fleeing and not from Assad that 4 million refugees in Turkey do not want to return
    In this case, Turkey will have to decide what is more important for it - solving problems with the Kurds or supporting the gangster anti-Assad "opposition".

    But the author does not think that both of these problems in Turkey are equally important.

    Weak article.
    Frankly weak.
    I think so.
    1. gmb
      gmb 4 March 2020 17: 57 New
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      I will support you
  12. Keyser soze 4 March 2020 18: 52 New
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    Erdogan has already very kindly conducted a “substantive demonstration” of what kind of strength and power they can be.


    Yes, 100 people entered Greece and 73 of them went to prison directly, while the Greeks received from Brussels 700 million euros for their labors. laughing

    Our account is straight forward also good - they came in 2x50, entered 0, received from Brussels - 300 million euros.
  13. Thrifty 4 March 2020 18: 52 New
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    Alexander, the problem of the Kurds there is far-fetched by the Sultan. He wants to create a new empire, a copy of the Ottoman, but so to speak, on a modern version.
  14. Ryaruav 4 March 2020 18: 57 New
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    Iran needs Syria because it is one step from Syria to Israel, although the Iran-Israel brawl is mainly warmed up from the United States, the states are pumping it in the Middle East
  15. Gardamir 4 March 2020 19: 15 New
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    I read the comments. Had some fun. What does Syria have to do with it? Do you see this person in the photo at the beginning of the article?

    They don’t even remember about him.
  16. Knell wardenheart 4 March 2020 21: 22 New
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    It’s a little incomprehensible to me why the Turks are not interested in the speedy closure of this issue - Assad will take up the “combing” of his Kurds the day after the closure of issues with the terrorists ..
    Few people like when in your state there are some "special" territories, with militias, weapons and servo zones for collecting taxes and entrepreneurship.
    1. protoss 4 March 2020 21: 56 New
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      the Assad family has always stood behind the RPK. throughout the civil war, the Asadites and Kurds were either neutral or at the same time. Turks in their minds so far, so entrusting the Bashar with a pinch of Ocalanites would be ridiculous.