Will a new Russian-Turkish party begin and who will win the victory?

101

Watching what is happening in Syria today, especially three downed Syrian aircraft, you experience more than twofold feelings. On the one hand, it’s like President Putin twice already, and Defense Minister Shoigu was buried by ISIS six times (still banned in Russia, however). Who, then, is so successfully capturing the city from the Syrian army?

Apparently, a certain ISIS-2. Which in the Russian Federation has not yet been banned, not destroyed by our bombs and missiles, but it is still ahead.



But then the next round began, and other regional powers began to be drawn into the conflict. Following some of the world.

The most interesting thing is that each of the participants in the Syrian events has their own goals. Moreover, these goals are so different that the conflict between some countries seems quite real.

Especially now, when almost five years have passed since Russia entered this war.

But since the headline talked about relations in the region of Russia and Turkey, we will dwell on how interesting these relations were. If you can call them that.

Episode number 1


November 24, 2015. We remember the incident when a Russian Su-16 bomber shot down a Turkish air force F-24 in the sky over the Turkish-Syrian border. What is interesting is not so much a demonstration of power by Turkey, but the reaction of Russia.

The press expectedly raised a howl, the public was indignant, all top-level leaders spoke on the topic, as a result, Moscow imposed economic sanctions on Turkey. Tomatoes, resorts ...

However, everything passes, all this has passed. And very fast. Turkey was forgiven, and began to cooperate with her again. Well, I really wanted Turkish money in the Kremlin. Therefore, the “Turkish Stream” was very quickly completed, which gave a good income to those who need it. And all sanctions were lifted without exception. In return for some not very intelligible apologies from Erdogan.

Episode number 2


The second episode, which is a vivid illustration of relations between Russia and Turkey and Putin and Erdogan, was the purchase by Turkey of Russian anti-aircraft systems S-400.

I emphasize that Russia did not sell, but Turkey bought. The initiative came from the Turkish side, but the Russian sold, despite the fact that the buyer was the country of NATO, which has a second army in the bloc. Indeed, to whom is war, to whom is mother dear ...

Erdogan began to demonstrate independence in full.

It seemed that Putin and Erdogan seem to have agreed on who and what will do in Syria. In the language of diplomacy this is called the “division of spheres of influence”. The only problem is that each of the leaders of the two countries very differently understood how to arrange their actions in Syria.

What really happened on the sidelines of the few, but fruitful meetings of the leaders of Russia and Turkey, we, of course, will never know.

However, it is quite possible to imagine, especially starting from what Erdogan is doing today.

And the Turkish president continues to demonstrate independence. His program is quite simple and can be traced without problems.

Erdogan at one time did not add to the assassination of Assad. Either using this as an argument in negotiations with Putin, or relying on ISIS militants. But he could ... And then the "ally" of Russia in the region would become the property stories. Like Saddam Hussein, for example.

But, without overthrowing Assad, Erdogan was able to really bargain with Putin. And the Turkish leader wanted no less, but to create a “gray” buffer zone in northern Syria. The width of the zone is 30 km, the length is “only” 800. Almost the entire length of the Syrian-Turkish border.

Guess there is oil there?

In addition, Erdogan seriously hoped to return “to his historical homeland” about four million Syrian refugees living at the expense of Turkey in Syrian-controlled territory.

And Idlib. Idlib is not just a point on the map. This is actually a reservation, sort of like a de-escalation zone, into which Assad’s opponents from different groups, but mainly those supported by Turkey, have moved. The reservation was arranged at the initiative of Russia, sort of so as not to spill excess blood.

However, this scenario "worked" approximately like the Minsk agreements, that is, it did not work at all. The ceasefire was constantly violated, with both sides fiercely accusing each other. Well, just like Ukraine and the republics of Donbass. It is equally violent and just as ineffective.

Well, in the end, in January of this year, what began was long overdue. That is, the parties just clung to each other's throats.

Episode number 3


Assad’s troops began to strike not only at the units of the Syrian opposition, which were Turkish-oriented and supported by Turkey, but also at the Turkish military, which were stationed in the sector.

It is clear that the Turks responded to each such strike with a much more powerful strike against the Syrian government forces.

February 27. The most massive strike by the Syrian army directly on Turkish troops. He followed after another demand personally from Erdogan of the Syrian army to get out of the demarcation line.

The Syrians delivered a very tangible blow to the Turks. It is noteworthy that at the same time, Russia sent two frigates (Admiral Makarov and Admiral Grigorovich) with Caliber cruise missiles on board, as well as the Orsk BDK to the Syrian coast.

Turkey said it was ready to block the Black Sea straits, but eventually missed these ships.

However, over the past two days, the Turks, without straining at all, shot down three Syrian aircraft. Yes, frank air junk Su-24, but shot down.

What is starting now can be called another "strange war." But this war is reaching a new level. This is not about the fact that statements and claims are exchanged by militant groups controlled by different sides of the conflict, but by the countries themselves that control the region.

The countries that control the region are Russia and Turkey. Syria in the person of Assad is no longer even trying to demonstrate independence. At least, all the claims of Turkey towards Syria are answered from Russia.

Is this good or bad?

My opinion is more competent. And does not cause illusions.

Episode number 4. Last


On February 28, the Turkish side accuses everyone in a row (or rather, accuses the Syrians, referring to ours) of allegedly "Syrian" aircraft attacking a convoy with the Turkish military.

The representative of the Russian center for reconciliation of the parties to the Syrian conflict replies that the blow to the column was delivered not by the "Syrian" but by the Syrian aviation. And in this convoy of Turkish military there shouldn’t have been a single one, and if there were, then the Turks themselves were to blame for not informing them of the presence of their military in the convoy.

In response, Turkish Minister of Defense Hulusi Akara practically accused the Russian representatives of lying. He said that the Turkish department warned the Russian military about the places of deployment of its soldiers, and the “Syrian” aviation hit those very places, including the military ambulances.

Vicious circle. "Syrian", that is, Russian, the aircraft did not bomb, it worked simply Syrian. Who is to blame and who is right, you can figure it out for a long time.

But here it is necessary to look not at the raging politicians and military, but at the first persons.

If you rewind the tape of events, you can see that earlier, after the next / next meeting / telephone conversation between Erdogan and Putin, at least some shifts were observed towards the constructive side, but today it doesn’t even smell.

Today, all the conversations between the first persons serve solely for some kind of cover and propaganda of intentions. That is, to expose oneself “white and fluffy” and denigrate a neighbor.

Everything is very logical. In Idlib, too, it all began. Everyone just climbed out of their skin in order to demonstrate their desire for peace. And according to the very same training manual in the Donbass, everyone is so for the world that there will soon be no one to fight for it.

Who wrote these scripts ...

But in fact, in the next telephone conversation between Putin and Erdogan (according to the press service of the AP), on-duty words were said about concern about the situation in the region.

- Recep, the escalation in Idlib is sad. It is annoying.

- Vladimir, I completely agree with this point of view.

“Something needs to be done ...”

- Required!

Well, in the end, the Turkish army smashed the Syrian wholeheartedly, staging the most massive shelling in the history of its illegal stay on Syrian soil.

An interesting way to relieve tension.

More and more various experts are beginning to consider the issue of a direct clash between Turkey and Russia. While theoretically, reasoning, looking at the ceiling. Of course. It would be interesting to arrange this.

Putin reacted by telling us that we do not want to fight with anyone in an interview with TASS.

"We are not going to fight with anyone, but we are creating a situation in the defense field so that it would never occur to anyone to fight with us."


But this is not about defense. It's about Syria ...

It is clear that the "close" media have already thrown a luxurious tantrum, telling their readers how invincible we are, and therefore we simply won’t fight with anyone.

And it’s just wonderful that we won’t. For if you do not fight, then you will not lose.

Turkey has the second strongest NATO bloc army. And the whole block is behind. It is clear that the whole block is not needed here. Turkey will be able to block the straits on its own, just look at its fleet. Will be able.

And by closing the airspace over Turkey and securing the support of Azerbaijan (which in fact is Turkey’s ally partner), one can significantly complicate the life of the Russian contingent.

In general, the script is not drawn the most pleasant, and it is worth discussing separately. There may be as many development options as you like.

The most unpleasant thing in the situation is that Erdogan begins to play from a position of strength and just take what he wants. The claims of the Turkish leader for supremacy in the region and the shah’s throne are no secret to anyone.

As well as the fact that Erdogan is an ally only to Erdogan. Everything else is a fairy tale for believers.

It is very difficult to say how far the sides can go, but the fact that this time the Russo-Turkish confrontation is played on the side of Erdogan and with his advantage is, unfortunately, the bitter truth.

And yes, waving ICBMs and all kinds of Poseidons there will hardly help. Here, as in a card game, you can’t sort it out. Peeling will be the whole community.

Complex alignment, difficult choice. We can only predict and see how our leader will be able to play this difficult game.
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  1. -12
    4 March 2020 07: 00
    As a result of the Syrian multi-port, Russia has slipped to the level of Turkey.
    1. +11
      4 March 2020 07: 07
      Do not go to your grandmother, that following the negotiations on March 5 there will be another "Minsk" agreements and a new line of demarcation. And again the burden - no war, no peace.
    2. +5
      4 March 2020 07: 16
      According to Putin, we have already won in Syria 5-6 times, but this is inaccurate, although a parade with the president over the next victory was held at our base in Syria.
      Tomorrow, the propagandists, jumping out of their pants, will talk about a new breakthrough, but over Turkey, thanks to the greatest hpp and no longer a battlefield, but at the negotiating table. Interestingly, the ice cream maker will be?
      1. -5
        4 March 2020 07: 29
        Quote: Malyuta
        According to Putin, we have already won in Syria 5-6 times, but this is inaccurate, although a parade with the president over the next victory was held at our base in Syria.

        yes, this is not the second afghan ... it can be cooler. but if ours were not there, it would be even worse. it's Complicated...
        1. 0
          4 March 2020 11: 22
          Quote: Aerodrome
          yes, this is not the second afghan ... it may be cooler. but if ours were not there, it would be even worse. it's Complicated...

          Comrade hi drinks Afghan is for us that boil, the heroin flow is being blown directly to us with delivery to each house and, strictly speaking, it is here that our interests are, but what we are doing in Syria, this question is open, no one has yet voiced the true reason finding our group there.
          Excuses propagandists..dists about helping the "brotherly" people and other garbage in my heart does not find a response, but the youth on heroin here and now is a tragedy on a national scale.
          And second, how do terrorists in Syria differ from a terrorist organization in Afghanistan?
          1. 0
            4 March 2020 22: 33
            Terrorists in the SAR are friends with the IS, and the Taliban are fighting with the IS, this is a very important difference. In addition, the Taliban, it seems, very soon will no longer be terrorists, and this is also very important.
      2. +3
        4 March 2020 07: 30
        As the previous "experience" shows, all these HSPs consist in one thing - "freezing the situation" before "it can dissolve on its own, then," and concealment of expenses and losses combined with stuffing "earned" into different "money boxes", just in case. Here is "such", here is "HPP" .... Yes
        1. +3
          4 March 2020 07: 41
          Quote: Snail N9
          Here is "such", here is "HPP" .... Yes

          Quote: Moskovit
          It's funny to watch the troll tantrum. Countless times, Putin has merged Donbass and Syria. But for some reason, the Ukrainian military periodically wash themselves in blood when they try to at least enter the land of the LPNR, and the territory controlled by Assad is growing from year to year. I suppose this time there will be a similar "drain"

          Quote: Snail N9
          As the previous "experience" shows

          You’ll, of course, have ready examples to confirm your words, and you’ll immediately give these examples here Yes
      3. +4
        4 March 2020 08: 22
        Today, Turkish military posts and terrorist fortified areas have merged in Syrian Idlib as a whole, said Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov. The terrorists merged with Turkish observation posts. sad
      4. +13
        4 March 2020 09: 33
        Quote: Malyuta
        According to Putin, we have already won in Syria 5-6 times

        Enough to spread Ukrainian fakes, ISIS was destroyed as a state, and the bandits will be until the Syrians close the border with Turkey, then everything will end.
      5. +6
        4 March 2020 13: 14
        Look at the map, silly. For 15 years and now. Then look at the map of Idlib and its environs at the beginning of December and now. Maybe then something will come if there is where. wink
      6. 0
        4 March 2020 14: 43
        In Syria, we are doing everything right. I hope that a way out will also be found out of the situation in Idlib, although the situation is certainly not simple.
        But still, I would like to hope that our diplomacy will succeed in other areas, which are much more vitally important, especially in the post-Soviet space. Without a strong rear, we will always be vulnerable.
    3. +4
      4 March 2020 09: 16
      Well, so you can say that America once slipped to the level of Yugoslavia or Iraq. Ours are not fighting there "on foot", more and more from the air. So no, our level is higher.
  2. +16
    4 March 2020 07: 03
    In episode number 1, Roman forgot to mention the vile murder of our ambassador ...
    In general, a difficult alignment, a difficult choice.
    1. +3
      4 March 2020 07: 21
      Quote from Uncle Lee
      In episode number 1, Roman forgot to mention the vile murder of our ambassador ...

      To this "episode", as well as to the death of the pilot, Putin angrily responded about tomatoes, while the Foreign Ministry expressed concern. This ended the "episode".
      True, there are a couple more episodes, the "Turkish portok" and the nuclear power plant, but this is already our sadness, as taxpayers.
  3. +14
    4 March 2020 07: 03
    More and more different experts are beginning to consider the issue of a direct clash between Turkey and Russia

    There will be no new party between Russia and Turkey. Tomorrow, March 5, the heads of state of Russia and Turkey will meet and agree on everything. We will find out what exactly will be agreed tomorrow.
    1. 0
      4 March 2020 07: 42
      I repeat 3 times in the fields of VO: From a dead donkey you will receive ears, not a contract with Erdogan. And I’ll be right 3 times .... Given the situation inside Turkey itself, the pressure on Erdogan, he is not negotiable
    2. -5
      4 March 2020 08: 19
      Putin will not be left with anything, most likely Idlib will have to surrender, since the Turks have shown their teeth, and Russia simply cannot and does not want to fully fight Russia with Turkey in this region. The only problem is whether Erdogan will be limited only to Idlib? Most likely not, he has already expressed his opinion and will go to the end - Assad’s regime must be destroyed, as he put it. Turkey smelled of blood and appetite, as you know, comes with food, and at best for us everything will go according to the scenario of Cyprus, i.e. Turks chop off part of the territories to themselves and increase their borders in the south, at worst they will extinguish to a victorious end. The task for Russia will be how nicely to get out of this situation so as not to face the dirt, perhaps Putin will offer new lender to the Sultan in the form of which next megaprojects in Turkey at the expense of naturally Russian taxpayers
      1. +4
        4 March 2020 09: 09
        Why take an idlib if it is 50% captured? they will finish off the remnants of the barmaley and without them the Turks will not fight
    3. 0
      4 March 2020 08: 34
      The real weak spot of Turkey is the Kurds, I think it’s time for Russia to play the Kurdish card for a long time, it is much cheaper and will cost us a little blood!
      1. +6
        4 March 2020 10: 03
        Quote: Alex Russia
        The real weak spot of Turkey is the Kurds, I think it’s time for Russia to play the Kurdish card,

        So I have to hand over Idlib or play the Kurdish card? laughing
    4. +1
      4 March 2020 11: 10
      We don’t know. Because Putin will ask Erdogan not to be impudent until April 22.
  4. +8
    4 March 2020 07: 08
    So far Iran has not clearly said its word, this party is not clearly visible. But the alignment, of course, is quite tough.
    1. 0
      4 March 2020 13: 59
      Quote: bessmertniy
      So far Iran has not clearly said its word, this party is not clearly visible. But the alignment, of course, is quite tough.

      So the IRGC is fighting there on earth, what other word should Iran say?
  5. +3
    4 March 2020 07: 12
    The position of the Turks at the moment is more advantageous from the standpoint of strength and logistics. Our military is in such a position that at the beginning of the outburst they will simply be blocked and for release it will take a full-blown strike on Turkey with all the consequences. What is happening in Syria is a continuous outwardly political mistake of our leadership which in the near and long term does not bode well.
    1. -2
      4 March 2020 09: 14
      The real weak spot of Turkey is the Kurds, I think it’s time for Russia to play the Kurdish card for a long time, it is much cheaper and will cost us a little blood!
  6. +3
    4 March 2020 07: 12
    I think Erdogan decided to play on the side of the opposition of Istanbul. The plans of the Turkish leader to support NATO are collapsing. Yes, and in the information field he does not feel any fraudulent support. The Turkish stream also does not let go headlong.
    1. +2
      4 March 2020 09: 21
      And what kind of support should be from NATO? In the occupation of a neighboring country or what? This is not recorded in the NATO charter. Let me remind you that the backbone of NATO is the EU countries, and there nobody harbors warm feelings for Turkey! A veto will be strewed at every turn, a recent example of the right of veto that Greece imposed right there
      1. 0
        4 March 2020 23: 58
        Well, the Greeks will not rust. They have imposed long ago on all of Turkey. And the Greeks will not miss a single Turkish question in NATO.
  7. +4
    4 March 2020 07: 13
    I hope everything will do without a direct collision with the Turks. Otherwise it will be hard. Strong enough army with rear against a limited contingent. And there can be no talk of actions on the territory of Turkey. We are waiting, as we can agree, those on whom everything depends
    1. +1
      5 March 2020 00: 03
      War with each other is not in anyone's interests. You think our contingent will be torn to pieces? This is instant death for all power. However, if we consider the scenarios of further actions, then in 2015 it was partially worked out by deploying units of the 58th army on the Armenian-Turkish border. Yes, and low-power nuclear weapons could well be applied. The world is not the same as it was before. There are practically no rules.
  8. +5
    4 March 2020 07: 14
    Good morning, dear forum users!
    In my opinion, there will be no war with the Turks. The time has not come. Too it is not beneficial to those in power. But incidents, let them happen. And basically the Syrians will receive it.
    Example: the murder of Ambassador Karlov. pure cause for war. Or the downing of our plane. The death of the general, without the Turks, was there as well. Now money, big money is everything. Profitable - fighting, not profitable not fighting. This applies to all conflicting parties.
    1. +2
      4 March 2020 08: 29
      The time of class-ideological wars has passed, the time has come again for geopolitics, economic competition, covered by lies and terry demagogy, the era of the wars of world oligarchs.
  9. +1
    4 March 2020 07: 16
    Salvage wins everything, the interests of the country are of no interest to anyone.
  10. +6
    4 March 2020 07: 20
    In tactical terms, the situation in Idlib is quite good. Yes, the allies (Syria, Iran, the Russian Federation) suffered heavy losses, but Turkish-controlled militants / rebels were incapable of a major counterattack, even with the fire assistance of the Turkish army. This army itself does not directly enter into battles.
    But in a strategic sense, the situation for the Russian Federation is absolutely hopeless. We have been in Syria longer than the Great Patriotic War lasted, the goals of the war are unclear, and most importantly, the only reasonable goal that you can even imagine: restoring the territorial integrity of Syria is completely unattainable. More precisely achievable, but for this you need to directly fight with Turkey and the United States. That on this theater is impossible for us.
    1. -6
      4 March 2020 08: 29
      And I have been telling Russia for a long time to turn off this booth. What exactly the Russian Federation is seeking in Syria is not clear, and it is not clear from here how to evaluate our military presence in Syria. Success or failure all depends on what we are there for.
      1. 0
        4 March 2020 10: 06
        Quote: Alex2048
        What exactly is the Russian Federation seeking in Syria is not clear

        And in my opinion everything is very clear. Syria’s restoration to the pre-war border is being achieved. And at the moment, Turkey is the only obstacle. And we will find out on the 5th. And I doubt that we will make concessions to Erdogan.
      2. +3
        4 March 2020 16: 52
        Quote: Alex2048
        What exactly the Russian Federation achieves in Syria is not clear, and from here it is not clear how to evaluate our military presence in Syria

        According to the official legend, "we are fighting international terrorism." Then the version changed - and we began to fight for the Syrian territorial integrity
        The first, of course, is designed for absolutely idiots, the second is closer to reality, but the puzzle does not add up if the authorities of the Russian Federation for unknown reasons would be interested in the integrity of Syria, the Russian Federation would intervene in 2011-2012. Assad’s power could then be maintained without major problems. However, Mr. Putin then declared that we had no interests there. And then he completely helped to eliminate the main Syrian military asset, chemical weapons.
        As for the real reasons, the main versions
        1) Gazprom’s interests after the defeat in Ukraine in 2014. If you follow this version, the war is lost - the gas bypass of Ukraine failed.
        2) The request of the Big Host (USA) to help in the fight against ISIS in exchange for any preferences, such as partial lifting of sanctions. Here, too, the war is lost; we have been fighting for 5 years; no one is going to lift sanctions.
        3) Well, "Occam's razor". Just a desire for foreign policy PR and stupidity. Here too, the war is lost, there was a good PR for a year, but after 3 or 4 "victory announcements" people just started laughing.
        Quote: Alex2048
        And I have been telling Russia for a long time to turn off this booth.

        The entrance is the ruble, the exit is two. Judging by the 3 or 4 declaration of victory and withdrawal, even the authorities of the Russian Federation came to what trap they fell into, but getting out is not so simple.
        Are you sure that Iran alone and its proxies will hold the front? I personally do not. And if they don’t hold back and everything rolls back, then even the electorate with brainwashed by the TV may have a question - why did they actually fight?
    2. -4
      4 March 2020 09: 22
      The real weak spot of Turkey is the Kurds, I think it’s time for Russia to play the Kurdish card for a long time, it is much cheaper and will cost us a little blood!
    3. +2
      4 March 2020 10: 46
      It is surprising that the author of the article, that most of the commentators argue in the realities of the last century and completely do not understand the specifics of the modern postmodern world where everything mixes up, and war and partnerships, armies and PMCs, corporate and state interests.
      All countries are divided into “subjects of“ international law and “objects” of law enforcement
      Subjects and their aspirants are fighting influence, markets and spaces, waging continuous hybrid and proxy wars, carrying out large projects with the participation of their own and international corporations. These wars are waged on the territory of "objects", which, in turn, are trying to get out of their state in the process of the same wars and competition between subjects
      Russia gradually left its object state (remember the 90s - the beginning of the 2000s, when there were wars for pipeline routes and promising regions on our territory) and began to fight for its interests and those of its corporations in new directions. These interests and their application vectors add up and overlap with the actions of other entities
      That's right, there are no permanent friends, there are only permanent interests, today are allies, and tomorrow competitors
      Russia is trying to gain a foothold in the most important region of the world - the cradle of civilization - the Mediterranean, to consolidate its interests in the region’s energy projects, do not forget about the active development of Iraqi fields by Russian companies
      Its actions clash with the interests of Turkey, which is experiencing a development crisis, has lost its European perspective and is facing the threat of internal upheaval and Israel, which is defending its leadership in the context of internal (Palestinian) and external conflicts, supported by certain influential forces of the United States and its allies. but by certain political and economic groups of this state formation
      Such is the world now and there is no need to whine, that now something is somehow wrong and all because of money, etc., accept it, try to be subjects, and if possible not to be objects, and this is very not easy
  11. 0
    4 March 2020 07: 20
    Not for nothing that recently we went there for a transporter helmet for a transporter. I think March 5th will no longer be coercion to implement the Sochi accords. The fastest Idlib will remain with the Syrians.
  12. +10
    4 March 2020 07: 25
    the analysis of what is happening now is just from the area of ​​blah blah blah finger to the sky. we do not know in my opinion even 30 percent of the information. why are Putin and Erdogan quietly talking? Why is there not even a hint that there is at least some kind of tension between the leaders? our planes to Syria quietly fly through Turkey. Ships calmly pass the strait. it's some kind of agreement. about which they still will not say anything.
    1. +6
      4 March 2020 07: 54
      Quote: carstorm 11
      the analysis of what is happening now is just from the blah blah blah blah

      That this analysis is done with a finger is beyond doubt. But is it precisely in the sky - the question, in my opinion, is interesting winked

      Quote: carstorm 11
      we do not know in my opinion even 30 percent of the information. this is some kind of agreement about which we still will not say anything

      100%
    2. -1
      4 March 2020 09: 11
      because they agreed 2 months ago and the attack on idlib is a spectacle
  13. +2
    4 March 2020 07: 50
    Quote: Edward Vashchenko
    As a result of the Syrian multi-port, Russia has slipped to the level of Turkey.

    But what is wrong with Turkey ???
    Not a weak state that has serious ambitions in the BV!
    Yes, the "sultan" suffered ... but this does not mean that one can dismiss such a state.
  14. +1
    4 March 2020 07: 52
    Sometimes the winner is not the one who successfully started, but who provided for everything. It’s hard to guess on the coffee grounds, if you also took the mug)))). I don’t think that TAM sits and reels their own snot in their fists. They have a difficult choice. And I feel sorry for Syria and I don’t want to start a war, and actually a lot of things .... It’s a difficult decision to make, it’s a fact.
  15. +1
    4 March 2020 07: 52
    Sometimes the winner is not the one who successfully started, but who provided for everything. It’s hard to guess on the coffee grounds, if you also took the mug)))). I don’t think that TAM sits and reels their own snot in their fists. They have a difficult choice. And I feel sorry for Syria and I don’t want to start a war, and actually a lot of things .... It’s a difficult decision to make, it’s a fact.
    1. -1
      4 March 2020 11: 26
      About fortune-telling on coffee grounds, when the mug was taken, you said it beautifully good
      But about a difficult choice? Somehow there are people who don’t even see one move ahead. How they were circled with the northern stream. Here, too, they themselves gave carte blanche to Erdogan, now they are racking their brains.
  16. +4
    4 March 2020 08: 02
    Everyone in this war has its own goals and they are all different. Erdogan acts from a position of strength, knowing that there will be no serious answer. Turkey can overnight complicate our positions in Syria without risking anything. The war in Syria dragged on, draining the warring. In terms of logistics, our positions are the worst. Just leaving Syria is no longer a camilpho, so you have to come to a compromise. Erdogan on horseback
  17. -2
    4 March 2020 08: 04
    It's funny to look at this whole situation and see how the house of cards collapses out of illusions about some kind of ghostly "ally" and "partner" in the person of Turkey, because more than once smart people in Russia emphasized that flirting with the main historical geopolitical enemy of Russia (in this region) this is a big mistake, and in the end it will turn out to be Russia once again, but the great "strategist" of Russia naturally has his own special view, but as you know, whoever does not want to study history will have to repeat all the same mistakes of the past!
    1. +2
      4 March 2020 10: 12
      Eeee ... Germany for soap? Do not sell gas? Do not trade? The enemy was cleaner than Turkey. And no one called Turkey an ally. Not.
    2. +1
      4 March 2020 10: 20
      Quote: Alex Russia
      It's funny to look at this whole situation and see how the house of cards collapses from illusions about some kind of ghostly "ally" and "partner" in the person of Turkey,

      A typical projection of one's own psychological problems onto others. Who had a "house of cards of illusion", VVP? Or Shoigu?
  18. +3
    4 March 2020 08: 07
    Will a new Russian-Turkish party begin and who will win the victory?

    For some reason, from every war anyone with Russia, the British or the Americans won.what
  19. -3
    4 March 2020 08: 11
    At what point do the Flow valves close?
  20. -7
    4 March 2020 08: 15
    Putin Assad’s Socket. Will trade only with all interested parties and merge
    1. +4
      4 March 2020 08: 19
      Quote: Million
      Putin Assad’s Socket. Will trade only with all interested parties and merge

      Once again:

      Quote: Moskovit
      It's funny to watch the troll tantrum. Countless times, Putin has merged Donbass and Syria. But for some reason, the Ukrainian military periodically wash themselves in blood when they try to at least enter the land of the LPNR, and the territory controlled by Assad is growing from year to year. I suppose this time there will be a similar "drain"

      Take this medicine as needed, before and after meals. If the case is not running - should help.
      1. -3
        4 March 2020 08: 24
        Learn to play chess, you will become smarter than Pavlov’s dog
      2. +1
        4 March 2020 13: 16
        Soon we will see for ourselves, there is too much intertwined, but we can’t retreat ...
    2. -1
      4 March 2020 10: 13
      Well yes. Well yes. All-powerful.
      1. -3
        4 March 2020 11: 30
        And more than once. Just suddenly, as about Donbass, they will stop talking about Syria.
  21. -1
    4 March 2020 08: 22
    Putin will not be left with anything, most likely Idlib will have to surrender, since the Turks have shown their teeth, and Russia simply cannot and does not want to fully fight Russia with Turkey in this region. The only problem is whether Erdogan will be limited only to Idlib? Most likely not, he has already expressed his opinion and will go to the end - Assad’s regime must be destroyed, as he put it. Turkey smelled of blood and appetite, as you know, comes with food, and at best for us everything will go according to the scenario of Cyprus, i.e. Turks chop off part of the territories to themselves and increase their borders in the south, at worst they will extinguish to a victorious end. The task for Russia will be how nicely to get out of this situation so as not to face the dirt, perhaps Putin will offer new lender to the Sultan in the form of which next megaprojects in Turkey at the expense of naturally Russian taxpayers
    1. +3
      4 March 2020 10: 12
      Quote: Alex Russia
      Putin will not be left with anything, most likely Idlib will have to surrender,

      Has Putin ever delivered anything?
      Quote: Alex Russia
      because the Turks showed their teeth, and Russia can’t fully fight with Turkey in this region

      It is only proto-ukry who are "at war" with us only in Donbass, but not in other places.
      Quote: Alex Russia
      Most likely not, he has already expressed his opinion and will go to the end - Assad’s regime must be destroyed

      Language will not bring Edik and his entourage to good.
    2. +2
      4 March 2020 10: 15
      Repeat, my friend. wink
  22. -3
    4 March 2020 08: 22
    Quote: R. Skomorokhov
    Will a new Russian-Turkish party begin and who will win the victory?

    The Turks fought with us 16 times and never won. They will not defeat us this time either.

    What is Erdogan counting on? The fact that "our" elite will act the same way as under the hunchback, who betrayed the Afghans and withdrew our troops. He hopes that "our" corrupt elite is about to throw off Putin and the new ruler of Russia will act the same way as the humpbacked one with Avganistan - withdraw troops from Syria. Can't wait!

    And by the way, if Putin’s amendments to the Constitution are approved, then this will not happen with any leader. That is why the fifth column is so zealously opposed to these amendments.

    Erdogan must always remember that as we saved him, we can not save him the same way.
  23. 0
    4 March 2020 08: 23
    Novel! As always - good
    And yes, waving ICBMs and all kinds of Poseidons there will hardly help. Here, as in a card game, you can’t sort it out.

    It's like in "Poker": it is useless to bluff against Royal Flash.
    Complex alignment, difficult choice. We can only predict and see how our leader will be able to play this difficult game.

    As for the difficult situation. Novel! But wasn't this leader allowed this alignment to take place? Is it not with his "tough answers" that he allowed wiping his feet on Russia not only for the Turks, but for everyone who is too lazy. This is against the patient Russian people, he is able to create different “things-tricks”, and he will not be allowed to make any amendments to the global alignment and rules on the basis of the armed people behind the Zolotov’s department.
    We can predict as much as we like, but so far (next comes Brzezinski’s famous quote about the Russian elite) no one will ever give an equal answer to any attacks and sanctions of the West - the gut is thin. I have already said it once, but I will repeat it without any embarrassment (in the light of the need for some “fairy tale method” to be adopted, urgently and in a package of amendments to the constitution):
    It may be that we will burn in a nuclear fire, and someone will continue to express concern and call for understanding.
    In big politics, there is no place for “yard wimps”, “toilet cleaners” and “galley rowers”, as well as storytellers looking for the guilty overseas and somewhere out there, among the people who are allowed to work for beggarly wages until their death.
    Therefore, to wait for some kind of game, some worthy completion of the party from ... The born crawl can only teach to crawl and crawl.
    1. +2
      4 March 2020 10: 18
      Why aren’t you a foreign minister yet. Not! Defense!
      1. -1
        4 March 2020 10: 58
        Quote: Mikhail Tynda
        Why aren’t you a foreign minister yet.

        I don’t speak languages ​​... crying
        Quote: Mikhail Tynda
        No! Defense!

        Do you think that this entire Syrian campaign is a tricky plan for the General Staff? MO is an instrument in the hands of the “lost coast” of the guarantor. The plan of any campaign has a goal. And at the General Staff they are developing specific actions and methods to achieve this goal ...
        I still don’t know why, with such fabulous and unmatched weapons in the world, the existing specific goal cannot be achieved within almost a five-year period? That's all...
        Name at least one example of the use in Syria of the latest weapons (reported by the Defense Ministry or representatives of the Defense Ministry) that shook the West ..
        Sorry, but shaking the air with words during the fighting is crazy. When the guns are scorching ...
        1. +1
          4 March 2020 19: 42
          Name at least one example of the use in Syria of the latest weapons (reported by the Defense Ministry or representatives of the Defense Ministry) that shook the West ..

          I think that the "shocked West" also really wants to see him. But we don't want to attack anyone. We do not want to attack, BUT, if someone attacks us, then we bang him, and bang very quickly.
          So whoever wants to see, let him take a chance and attack.
          Z.Y. It seems that the West really wants to watch this movie in Turkey, because it incites them.
          We do not have a goal to fight with Turkey, our position: the territorial integrity of Syria. We will not leave this position. And to start a war, and therefore to disentangle all the consequences (and the consequences will be terrible) will be the one who started the war. But it will not be us.
      2. -1
        4 March 2020 11: 35
        Mr. Berkakit. In order to get into the government, you need not brains, but connections.
        1. +1
          4 March 2020 13: 44
          Tynda and Berkakit are not the same thing. Learn the geography of the country first. Start with this, maybe they will let me into the government and communications will not be needed.
        2. 0
          4 March 2020 14: 07
          Quote: Gardamir
          Mr. Berkakit. In order to get into the government, you need not brains, but connections.

          mostly neural, but you don’t have one, so don’t worry laughing
  24. -3
    4 March 2020 08: 34
    The real weak spot of Turkey is the Kurds, I think it’s time for Russia to play the Kurdish card for a long time, it is much cheaper and will cost us a little blood!
    1. +1
      4 March 2020 10: 18
      Repeat, my friend.
      1. +1
        4 March 2020 14: 09
        Quote: Mikhail Tynda
        Repeat, my friend.

        yes it is a troll, no need to react at all
  25. +5
    4 March 2020 08: 48
    We remember the incident when in the sky above the Turkish-Syrian border
    Well, I really wanted Turkish money in the Kremlin.
    Well yes. The Turkish pilot is dead. Howl over the death of two groups of Turkish special forces was raised literally the next day after the incident. And such a term as "Turkomans" has disappeared from the lexicon of the Turkish leader. Probably due to the fact that the Turkomans ceased to exist as an organized force. The Kurds suddenly, from somewhere, had the opportunity to shoot down Turkish helicopters, and over the territory of Turkey. The attempted coup in Turkey also seemed to have no prerequisites. The economic damage to Turkey from the sanctions, which in the article is modestly called "tomatoes", amounted to about $ 12 billion.
    It turns out that tomatoes are different.
    1. -1
      4 March 2020 11: 07
      Quote: Less
      Turkey also seemed to have no prerequisites. The economic damage to Turkey from the sanctions, which in the article is modestly called "tomatoes", amounted to about $ 12 billion.
      It turns out that tomatoes are different.

      You consider damage to Turkey. Have you considered the damage from such an early change of mood in relations between Russia and Turkey? Was it really necessary to rush into the arms of “anyhow anyone” so soon?
      The damage to the MiG-25 span cost the USSR 2 rubles (about $ 000). I wonder how much the delivery (urgent and inexplicable) of the S-000 to the NATO member country (or circle ???) will pour out? And there is also voluntary-compulsory lending ... a pipe along the bottom of the Black Sea. We have nowhere to put our gas? Or do Turkish lyres sound louder and gently caress?
      Tomatoes really are different, as are the “drones” standing in service ...
      hi
      1. +4
        4 March 2020 11: 38
        Quote: ROSS 42
        I wonder how much the delivery (urgent and inexplicable) of the S-400 to the NATO member country (or circle ???) will pour out?

        Greece S-300 sold. This is a country of NATO. There would be damage about it so far everyone would be broadcast.
        There was a rumor that even direct to the United States someone managed to sell the S-300. I do not know the truth or not, but I admit such an opportunity, for it was the mid-90s. And what is the result? NATO countries have not received any significant advantages. Or do you have other data on this?
        Quote: ROSS 42
        pipe along the bottom of the Black Sea. We have nowhere to put our gas?

        Strong economic ties are very conducive to good neighborly relations, but they do not cancel or replace national interests. For example, the same Lukashenka. How many buns he had for decades actually "just like that". And what is the result? In not a single delicate situation, when Russia needed political support, Lukashenka did not unambiguously take the side of Russia. It's the same with Ukraine. It's the same with the Baltics. All of them had a good "got" from the Russian transit, but they all considered that they had their own interests. None of them got better after that.
        Quote: ROSS 42
        Tomatoes really are different, as are the “drones” standing in service ...

        How many drones can be made for 12 billion dollars?
        Quote: ROSS 42
        Have you considered the damage from such an early change of mood in relations between Russia and Turkey?

        If everything depended only on Russia ... Russia cannot make decisions for Turkey. And Erdogan is an independent ruler of an independent state, and not the governor of the Turkish Autonomous Okrug within the Russian Federation. Therefore, Putin cannot order him.
        1. -2
          4 March 2020 11: 43
          Quote: Less
          Or do you have other data on this?

          I am not going to engage in gossip with a person who answers a question with a question. There a new topic on Turkey has come, go explain what the Russian generals will do in response to Turkish remarks ...
          1. +3
            4 March 2020 11: 52
            Quote: ROSS 42
            I am not going to engage in gossip with a person

            Smiled. That is, there is no talk of damage.
            Quote: ROSS 42
            go explain what the Russian generals will do in response to Turkish remarks ...

            Russian generals do not report to me. And it is hardly worth paying attention to "Turkish remarks" at all. The army is not obliged to enter into a squabble like grandmother in the market. It has other functions.
  26. +6
    4 March 2020 08: 59
    A fairy tale quickly affects, but it is not quickly done, especially political. Wait and see how the card will fall. Oh haste-all-scouts wait, GDP always plays for a long time. Striped people were already convinced of this, now they are sitting and scratching turnips, as we have done with cartoons.
  27. +7
    4 March 2020 09: 03
    Skomorokhov, as always in his own style: chef, everything was gone! The client is leaving! ...

    All; what Roman writes happens without participation and understanding of the situation both in Syria and inside Turkey. Naturally, Turkey has stronger opportunities in the region. The question is, will it apply them, all other things being equal? Erdogan has problems in Libya, problems on the Cypriot shelf with a gas conglomerate, starting from Greece and ending with Egypt, internal political problems, problems with the Kurds. And these are all military problems. Too many coffins with Turkish soldiers, despite the fact that he disinfected the army, dismissed, repressed and planted a bunch of military specialists, only 30% of the generals are there.

    And the war with Assad for Erdogan is an equation with too many variables.

    There are many factors in the military sense that can be used against Turkey. Starting from that new Syrian army, created by the Russian apparatus of military advisers over the years, and ending with the Kurds, who, with proper weapons and certain agreements, would gladly go to destroy the Turks.
    1. +2
      4 March 2020 10: 14
      Exactly, I read the first couple of lines and the author immediately became obvious. laughing
    2. -1
      4 March 2020 11: 11
      Quote: ButchCassidy
      All; what Roman writes happens without participation and understanding of the situation both in Syria and inside Turkey. Naturally, Turkey has stronger opportunities in the region. The question is, will it apply them, all other things being equal?

      Perhaps, then, with your analytical mind, can you explain to us “on the fingers” for what and what daily 126 rubles, “completely unnecessary and meaningless” for the Russian economy and social life, are swollen?
      1. +4
        4 March 2020 11: 52
        Quote: ROSS 42
        Perhaps, then, with your analytical mind, can you explain to us “on the fingers” for what and what daily 126 rubles, “completely unnecessary and meaningless” for the Russian economy and social life, are swollen?

        Sure, no problem. Learn the basics of budget legislation. That is the whole answer.

        A small explanation: the spending provided for the Ministry of Defense does not go anywhere, except for the needs of the Ministry of Defense. Including social spending. And vice versa. Spending on social programs can not go on spending on defense. Moreover, defense spending is reduced annually.

        Therefore, your proposal is from the category "let's distribute all the bombs to the elderly and children!" And about the fact that it is better to leave the barmaleevs to fertilize the land of Syria, and not to catch them all over Russia and Central Asia, I think you yourself understand, you are a reasonable person, right?
  28. 0
    4 March 2020 09: 05
    Erdogan resembles Hitler, so only a bullet in the forehead
  29. +1
    4 March 2020 10: 01
    According to the first paragraph, so that absolutely there were no illusions. The ban on tomatoes was only on TV. In all Moscow stores were fresh tomatoes and eggplant.
    As a result. The country is ruled by people for whom their own pocket is more important than patriotism and pride in the country.
    These people can only collect bonuses on our ancestors, I'm talking about May 9th.
  30. +1
    4 March 2020 10: 15
    Quote: ButchCassidy
    And the war with Assad for Erdogan is an equation with too many variables.

    And most importantly there is one constant, this is the position of Russia.
  31. The comment was deleted.
  32. +1
    4 March 2020 11: 27
    Aviakhlam su 24 ??? then what can we say about B 52. the author does not remember obsolete weapons !! but there is a wrong use of it!
  33. 0
    4 March 2020 11: 33
    It is time to rename Istanbul to Constantinople, and at the same time to annex Israel to Birobidzhan.
  34. +4
    4 March 2020 12: 54
    The author's words are jarring: "Well, I really wanted Turkish money in the Kremlin. Therefore, the Turkish Stream was completed very quickly, which gave a good income to anyone who needs it."

    The Turkish stream gives income first of all to the country's budget, and only then a small part of it "who needs it", i.e. shareholders.
    Expenses include extraction, storage, transportation, payment for transit, technical support of systems and much more, staff salaries, depreciation of equipment and buildings, rental of space, etc. .. This takes away the lion's share of the company's profit - more than 50%.

    The rest is received by the state, in the range of 30-40% as excise taxes.

    That is why only part of the revenue goes to the state.

    The company remains approximately 8-9% of the excess profit that goes to the development of the company, the payment of dividends to shareholders. You can look, for example, in Gazprom. The yield on shares brings about 7-10 percent per annum.

    And you thought that oil and gas themselves are produced, transported and sold?
  35. +1
    4 March 2020 13: 56
    [quote] but the fact that this time the Russian-Turkish confrontation is played on the side of Erdogan and with its advantage is, unfortunately, the bitter truth. [quote]

    another stupidity from the author
  36. 0
    4 March 2020 14: 16
    IMHO, the invaders begin the war, the defenders fight off them. The invaders are trying to get the property of those they attacked. Having captured a foreign state, the attackers receive at least territory, and the maximum and more significant jackpot.
    And what can we, as a capitalist state, get in Syria? So far, I see only headaches and expenses. They say that the army was run in. In 1939, the army was "run in" in Finland, and before that Halkin-gol. And what did it give us? In 1941 they rolled back to Moscow. And then there was Spain. And it seems, too - the Red Army is the strongest. It should be borne in mind that there was a real confrontation in Finland and Mongolia. Tank battles, aviation.
    Our tank crews are not fighting in Syria. What about aviation? What kind of aviation is fighting? Where is the adversary? There were real battles with American aircraft in the sky of Korea. And in the beginning there were serious losses of our aircraft, then they were rebuilt and off.
    What is our aviation doing in Syria? Mostly bombs. So it can be done at the landfill. Our country is big.
    Arabs do not know how to fight. Egypt. 5 day war. Also the Syrians. Refugees to Europe! Men of military age are fleeing the war! They do not care and Assad and their homeland.
    Helped Cuba. Caribbean crisis. But there are Cubans, not Arabs.
  37. -1
    4 March 2020 14: 19
    To solve this difficult knot of problems, you need to look at the root: the problem is not in Turkey, but in Ukraine, more precisely in the collapse of the USSR in 1991. All of this could have been foreseen, and instead of dividing the Soviet inheritance, all efforts should be directed to the restoration of the destroyed state, and, if that was not possible at that time, to the formation of a strong alliance with Ukraine and other republics. Then there would be no ground for rampant nationalism in Ukraine, and all subsequent problems and tragedies could be prevented.
    Instead, we are now trying to find allies where they have never been, and we are losing those with whom we have lived side by side for centuries. God grant that this does not happen yet with Belarus.
  38. +1
    4 March 2020 14: 55
    Complex alignment, difficult choice. We can only predict and see how our leader will be able to play this difficult game.


    We’ll see the first moves soon ...
  39. +1
    4 March 2020 15: 35
    Erdogan began to demonstrate independence in full.

    Seriously?
    Turkey said it was ready to block the Black Sea straits, but eventually missed these ships.

    Such, you see, a demonstration of independence. The boy himself gave the word; the boy himself took it back and took it.
    Go, warships, to the Syrian coast, you are on a friendly visit, yeah, play good game.

    It is clear that Erdogan is trying to pull the blanket to his side. As much as pulls. But about "independence" - this is nonsense. Any politician is dependent on the situation and his own capabilities and is forced to limit his “Wishlist” to a very serious framework.
    And in vain you are so ironic about the "tomatoes" and "resorts." Too many Turks are tied to profits from these industries, and does not smile at all for Erdogan to have so many dissatisfied behind him. The coup attempt is very fresh in his memory. The coup, frankly, who had a lot of chances for success. And it is not known how many chances the next will have. And how many dissatisfied in the army! They are still sitting quietly. Give only a chance.
  40. 0
    4 March 2020 20: 43
    "The most unpleasant thing in the situation is that Erdogan begins to play from positions of strength and just take what he wants. The claims of the Turkish leader for supremacy in the region and the Shah's throne are no secret to anyone."
    Erdogan will come with an ultimatum! And Putin will not dare to refuse him!
  41. 0
    4 March 2020 21: 23
    As a summary of your article, I would say that Putin made one of his few mistakes in relation to Turkey. After all, most of us hanging out at VO wrote that the Turks were the enemy of Russia, historical and real, Erdogan from the very beginning of the events in Syria supported ISIS in every possible way and it was clear that he had turned into another Middle Eastern dictator, but a dictator inside NATO, and this carries him only more weight in his understanding. And when he decided that he would show everyone who he is Erdogan, he showed, despite all the risks and losses.
    If tomorrow the GDP does not shake up the new "sultan" properly, then there will be losses in the ranks of the Russian military police, and this is Russia has already passed in Georgia and everyone knows how it ended.
    All that I wrote is just my guesses and conclusions, and time will tell what and how.
  42. 0
    4 March 2020 21: 59
    Stop whining. This situation would not have happened if Russia and Syria didn’t really cover the sky. So that it’s not like UAVs, so that the mouse does not slip
  43. +2
    5 March 2020 01: 56
    For me, so much by the author is far-fetched and distorted, knowingly or not, I do not presume to say so far. Well, yes, point by point. 1) Turkey is the second army in NATO ... Probably not in terms of strength, since the basis of the Turkish army is tanks comparable in strength to museum T-54s. The Turkish Air Force is also very seriously inferior to the Russian Air Force, both in the number of aircraft and in their armament. Nothing like Russian missiles such as the X-22 Storm, or Turkey has no caliber. 2) The Turkish fleet is stronger than the Russian ... This is a myth, because the Turkish fleet needs to be divided into two, because part of it is in the Black Sea, and part in the Mediterranean Sea, and the whole fleet from the Mediterranean to the Black Sea in Turkey does not conflict with Greece Cyprus. For this and not only this reason, NATO will not fight against Russia on the side of Turkey. Greece will block all Turkish cries for help, and the Germans do not like the Turks too much, it is too bad they behave in Germany. Russia, in the Black Sea, has a Black Sea Fleet, and a combined detachment of ships of the Baltic, Northern and Pacific Fleets, including nuclear submarines, can enter the Mediterranean Sea ... 3) Azerbaijan is a bad ally for Turkey for two reasons. The entry into the war against the Russian Federation fights off Armenia, in the war with which Azerbaijan has not been very lucky all this time and there is no reason to believe that it will be lucky now. In addition, the lion's share of Azerbaijan’s arms was bought in the Russian Federation, and Azerbaijan’s entry into the conflict with the Russian Federation deprives Azerbaijan of spare parts, ammunition and technical support from the Russian Federation, which will quickly bring all the equipment and especially the Azerbaijani Air Force to a pile of useless iron, which will only accelerate the resolution of the territorial dispute with Armenia not in favor of Azerbaijan
  44. 0
    5 March 2020 12: 35
    Quote: Martyn
    They are still sitting quietly. Give only a chance.

    Well, it’s not quiet. Already had a fight. In parliament. And so far no one has touched tomatoes with resorts. Erdogan has such independence.

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