When the Chinese Navy will come to first place in the world: in the United States gave a forecast


China continues to build up its naval capabilities. At such a pace, in the foreseeable future, he may acquire the largest in the world. fleet.


Over the next 10 years, the Chinese Navy will take first place in the world, overtaking even the US Navy. Retired U.S. Navy Rear Admiral Michael McDevith, who published an article for the U.S. Naval Institute, came to such disappointing conclusions. The expert believes that the United States is still the world's most powerful naval power, but China is rapidly catching up with America.

Since the Naval Institute, for which MacDevith wrote his article, is a private non-profit military association, the position of the author may be somewhat tendentious and reflect only his subjective point of view. But to listen to this forecast would be worth it. China is really paying more and more attention to its naval forces, knowing full well that only a powerful fleet will ensure Celestial dominance in the Asia-Pacific region.

According to McDevith, by 2021, the Chinese Navy will have 131 warships, including 2 aircraft carriers, 36 destroyers, 30 modern frigates, 9 amphibious warships, 8 nuclear submarines, 30 diesel strike submarines, etc. Of course, the potential of the US Navy, with 236 ships, is still far away, but China is not going to stop in increasing the number of ships. By 2035, Xi Jinping set the task of acquiring 270 warships. And this is quite realistic when you consider that the PRC ocean fleet was built literally in the last decade.

In terms of compliance with modern requirements for ships, China is still inferior to the United States, but has already overtaken all other countries of the world. In terms of the number of warships, they are also inferior to it: in Russia, according to McDevith, there are only 73 warships capable of open navigation, in Japan - 44 ships, in the “Queen of the Seas” of Great Britain - 39 ships, in France - 36 ships, in India - 33 ships.

In the Asia-Pacific region, China has an undeniable advantage over the United States, since all its warships are based in the ports of the Pacific Seas and can be advanced much more quickly for combat missions. Although American ships also pass through the South China Sea, the numbers of US and PRC ships present there are not comparable. This is recognized by other countries in Southeast Asia, which are also concerned about the growth of the naval potential of China.

Filipino journalist Jaime Lod quotes an anonymous source, a former high-ranking officer in the Philippines armed forces monitoring the situation at sea. According to the officer, the naval presence of China in the South China Sea is irreversible. If American warships were not in the region, then China would have completely taken control of the South China Sea for a long time.


Recall that China claims the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, which are also subject to territorial claims of Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines. But the naval forces of all these states, even if they unite and try to defend the South China Sea, will still have no chance in the event of an armed conflict against the Chinese Navy.

Despite the purchase of new ships and boats, the naval forces of the countries of Southeast Asia are able to solve only the tasks of confronting fleets of similar strength, as well as radical and pirate groups. It’s ridiculous to talk about the possibility of Malaysia or the Philippines somehow affecting Chinese ambitions in the South China Sea.

Russia, by the way, should also not turn a blind eye to the strengthening of China's naval power. Moreover, given that the entire Asia-Pacific region, including the Far East, is considered as a traditional zone of its interests in Beijing. In addition, China’s plans to expand its presence in the Arctic and Antarctic are also known, although for the time being it is only an economic presence, but where there are economic interests, sooner or later political and military will appear there.
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  1. McDonnell Douglas 2 March 2020 15: 27 New
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    Soberly assessing the situation, through the prism of events in Syria, I clearly understand the ever-growing threat that we will lose in the future some parts of Siberia. It is necessary to gradually remove their relatives from Chita, Priargunsk and Krasnokamensk. There and now it’s far from so hot, and then there’s nothing to help just ....
    1. Nasrat 2 March 2020 15: 36 New
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      Lavrov well done - accurately, briefly and succinctly spoke about such unique things as you ...

      1. McDonnell Douglas 2 March 2020 15: 40 New
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        If you measure wisdom by the number of birthdays, then I can’t keep up with you. © S.V. Lavrov
        1. Shurik70 2 March 2020 21: 56 New
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          Regarding the article:
          Short summary: "Russia, quarrel with China."
          And what for?
          Yes, China has economic interests in the Arctic and the Far East. With a competent policy, this interest will help Russia develop these regions.
    2. Voyager 2 March 2020 16: 55 New
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      With the removal of people, the chance of losing territory only increases. What is the logic? Well, so little will not seem to anyone in the event of a conflict following the loss of territories.
    3. ammunition 2 March 2020 17: 46 New
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      Quote: McDonnell Douglas
      I clearly understand the ever-increasing threat that we will lose some of the regions of Siberia in the future.

      Hitler was building up the army and the Luftwaffe, and not the fleet (kriegsmarin). And this meant that he was not going to attack England.
      China is building up its fleet and its air forces, and not its own land army. And this means that China is not arming itself against Russia, but against the United States and its henchmen (Japan, etc ...)
      1. Malyuta 2 March 2020 22: 07 New
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        Quote: ammunition
        Hitler was building up the army and the Luftwaffe, and not the fleet (kriegsmarin). And this meant that he was not going to attack England.

        You are very mistaken, colleague, Hitler built flocks of submarines and if you look at the tonnage of the Allied ships sunk by wolf packs of Karl Doenitz:
        During the Second World War (until May 1945), German submariners were sunk 2603 warships and transport ships of the Allies with a total displacement of 13,5 million tons. Among them are 2 battleships, 6 aircraft carriers, 5 cruisers, 52 destroyers and more than 70 warships of other classes. At the same time, about 100 thousand sailors of the military and merchant fleet died. This is the greatest result.
        And you say that Hitler did not develop the Navy.
        1. Dart2027 2 March 2020 23: 04 New
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          Quote: Malyuta
          Hitler built flocks of submarines

          By the beginning of the war there were only 57 of them, which is not enough for a serious war with England. Then yes, they built as they could.
          1. Malyuta 2 March 2020 23: 33 New
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            Quote: Dart2027
            By the beginning of the war there were only 57

            Moreover, out of 57, only 26 were suitable for operations in the Atlantic. However, already in September 1939, the German submarine fleet (U-Bootwaffe) sank 41 vessels with a total tonnage of 153 tons. Among them are the British airliner Athenia (the first victim of German submarines in this war) and the aircraft carrier Korejdes. Another British aircraft carrier Ark-Royal survived only because the torpedoes with magnetic detonators fired into it by the U-39 boat detonated ahead of time. And on the night of October 13-14, 1939, a U-47 boat under the command of Captain Lieutenant Gunther Prien (G? Nther Prien) entered the raid of the British military base Scapa Flow (Orkney Islands) and launched the Royal Oak battleship .
            Britain urgently removed its aircraft carriers from the Atlantic and limited the movement of battleships and other large warships, which were now especially guarded by destroyers and other escort ships. After that, the Reich leadership changed its initially negative opinion about submarines, and expanded their mass construction. Within 5 years, the composition of the German fleet included 1108 submarines.
            1. Dart2027 3 March 2020 06: 22 New
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              Quote: Malyuta
              Within 5 years, the composition of the German fleet included 1108 submarines.

              Quote: Dart2027
              Then yes, they built as they could.
  2. Sergey39 2 March 2020 15: 30 New
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    The South China Sea will be taken over and calm down. And plans to take first place in the world in the fleet are a bluff. Even the United States can’t afford such a fleet.
    1. Orel 2 March 2020 15: 47 New
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      Quote: Sergey39
      And plans to take first place in the world in the fleet are a bluff. Even the United States can’t afford such a fleet.


      I agree, but I would say differently, only the United States can afford it at the present time, and the situation with the PRC fleet resembles the history of the tank forces in 1941, 16 tanks, and as a result, separate tank battalions had to be formed at the end of go, so here China may have more ships, but what quality will they be? And are they suitable in confronting someone serious? There are big doubts here
      1. Sergey39 2 March 2020 15: 51 New
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        Nevertheless, the United States has now begun to reduce its fleet due to all sorts of obsolete components.
        1. Orel 2 March 2020 16: 43 New
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          Quote: Sergey39
          Nevertheless, the United States has now begun to reduce its fleet due to all sorts of obsolete components.


          You are right, only I am inclined to believe that this is simply a recognition of the fact that there’s no one really confronting the sea, they’re unlikely to seriously consider China, a couple of years ago there was an article about Chinese destroyers, so they repeat the technology of Soviet destroyers for another 60- x years, so apparently the quality of the Chinese Navy is more to justify budgets overstate
          1. donavi49 2 March 2020 17: 40 New
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            Well, what kind of technology of the 60s do the Chinese use in modern serial destroyers? Universal PU, in stacked blocks? With variable downloads? Oh, and the Russian Navy still cannot master this technology. Rather, I only mastered the model for exhibitions.


            Large radar canvases inscribed in the superstructure? Gas-gas-turbine universal installation, which goes immediately to 055, 901, and other projects? A large UDC of 40 in a series (the second is already being collected).


            Well, the only serious technological omission is a quiet electric ship. This technology is being implemented everywhere (the Russian Navy has the first ship with the ability to navigate at 12 knots under the electric propulsion corvette 20386 is planned). At the moment, the Chinese are catching up in the Stakhanovian way. Probably the new subset of corvettes 056 will get this opportunity, but at 8 knots. And a new type of frigate is already being made under electric motion at low speed.
            1. Orel 2 March 2020 17: 42 New
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              Quote: donavi49
              Well, what kind of technology of the 60s do the Chinese use in modern serial destroyers? Universal PU, in stacked blocks?


              If you, as an expert, vouch for the fleet of China, then I do not argue, I'm talking about the article that was here. Are you a fleet expert?
              1. donavi49 2 March 2020 17: 53 New
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                They have normal ships that do not crawl out of the seas. Right now 34 Task Force in Africa is hanging out. And they go without tugboats. If they break somewhere in London, Kiel or Sydney - then they will immediately trumpet this. So far, there have been no sensations about breakdowns.




                As for the combat equipment. They have normal characteristics on paper. And visually everything is relatively normal (like other similar ships in the world) arranged. Will it be effective? In a war similar to Syria - that is, kicking the broads / proxies of the enemy / unarmed state, their capabilities are clearly multiple times higher than the Russian Navy. Just because you can stuff 100 CR into such a ship. And such ships are being built in series at 2 shipyards. And there is also a giant 052D series - there are 64 mines under the KR / RCC / SAM. And they can defend their interests practically anywhere in the world, because in addition to the destroyers they riveted a series of 903 (8 units = 8 KMGs can feed) + 2 suppliers, the largest operating in the world (well, each feeds AUG, and goes at 901 nodes, that is does not slow down the connection).


                How it will show itself in a serious battle - no one knows. Just as no one knows how the French, Italian frigates (one of the most popular in the world and stuffed) or Japanese destroyers, like the same Sijon the Great (the most heavily armed destroyer in the world), will show himself. Even the Americans do not have normal statistics and they themselves caught the unexpected who should not have caught.
                1. Orel 2 March 2020 17: 58 New
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                  Quote: donavi49
                  As for the combat equipment. They have normal characteristics on paper. And visually everything is relatively normal (like other similar ships in the world) arranged.


                  I’m not trying to judge here, I remember exactly in the article that there was an indication that “everything is fine outside”, but inside it is antediluvian, the concept of an “electric ship” didn’t even sleep there, it’s flammable, but I won’t vouch for that article either, it happens "Hooray-patriotism" unload that you can clutch your head, even if not an expert.

                  Quote: donavi49
                  And such ships are being built in series at 2 shipyards. And then there's the giant 052D series


                  Build quickly, your truth, there is no arguing.

                  Quote: donavi49
                  How it will show itself in a serious battle - no one knows. Just like no one knows how the French, Italian frigates will show themselves


                  I hope you don’t have to check;)
    2. knn54 2 March 2020 16: 16 New
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      NUMBER of pennants is not everything.
      But Pacific Fleet needs to be strengthened, and not with corvettes. South Korea is already stepping on its heels, not to mention Japan.
      1. donavi49 2 March 2020 17: 34 New
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        South Korea for a minute still has the three most armed destroyers in the world - 144 main missiles (large missiles in the case of Standard2blok4, anti-ship missiles, missile defense Hyunmoo-3 for 1000-1500km).



        And 3 more under the project KDX-III + (that is, an improved Shizhon the Great) are being built.
  3. Nasrat 2 March 2020 15: 41 New
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    Let's see how coronavirus will affect Chinese industry, it may happen that the economy starts to stagger .. here it may not be up to the first places, it will ...

    The Chinese government, in connection with the coronavirus, issued a decree - all sick people who have now come to work will be treated + quarantine for contacts - at the expense of these same enterprises where they worked .. they are not yet burning (massively) with the desire of the capitalists from China to risk - do not work ... units of enterprises work ..
    We collect popcorn, we look, when they will work out.
    1. McDonnell Douglas 2 March 2020 15: 45 New
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      If their economy starts to stagger, ours will collapse! A crisis in any strong economy is almost our verdict. Just face it.
      Mortgage crisis in the USA - we have defaulted.
      The Asian crisis - we have inflation.
      And God forbid, we will begin the epidemic of coronovirus ....
      1. Nasrat 2 March 2020 15: 49 New
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        Quote: McDonnell Douglas

        And God forbid, we will begin the epidemic of coronovirus ....

        You have this virus inborn, and not one - you are not afraid of Chinese ..

        Quote: McDonnell Douglas
        If their economy starts to stagger, ours will collapse! .


        Your already collapsed ...
        1. McDonnell Douglas 2 March 2020 15: 57 New
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          You have this virus inborn, and not one - you are not afraid of Chinese ..

          So you recognized my genetic perfection over you ...
          Your already collapsed ...

          So be it, the main thing is that you enjoy it ...
          1. Nasrat 2 March 2020 16: 11 New
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            Quote: McDonnell Douglas

            So you recognized my genetic perfection over you ...
            .

            Naturally admitted, this is hard not to notice, especially when you begin to gush your thoughts.
            1. McDonnell Douglas 2 March 2020 16: 13 New
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              Pay attention to you?
              Rate it somehow?
              You put a plus sign?
              1. Nasrat 2 March 2020 16: 18 New
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                Quote: McDonnell Douglas
                Pay attention to you?
                Rate it somehow?
                You put a plus sign?


                Some kind of genie ... do you fulfill all your desires? wassat
    2. Sergey39 2 March 2020 15: 56 New
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      Coronavirus is the external side of the struggle between the Washington and Chinese financial tycoons. What actually happens there is hidden from prying eyes. And how the future will show.
      1. Nasrat 2 March 2020 16: 05 New
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        I agree with you, there is an undercover struggle ... but coronavirus is already affecting the industrial segment of China .. - econom. the losses are really awful, though the reserves in China are the same ..
        1. Sergey39 2 March 2020 16: 13 New
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          Not only in China affects. The US market also collapsed. And very much.
    3. Viktor p. 2 March 2020 20: 16 New
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      if they start to stagger, it will collapse.
  4. Mavrikiy 2 March 2020 16: 06 New
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    Russia, according to McDevith, has a total of 73 warships capable of open navigation,
    We have a defensive doctrine. Squadron battles in the ocean - we need.
    Russia, by the way, should also not turn a blind eye to the strengthening of the naval power of China. Moreover, given that the entire Asia-Pacific region, including the Far East, is considered as a traditional zone of its interests in Beijing.
    The author of a drink of water, oholoni. The Far East is perfectly protected by land and the coastal fleet.
  5. Alexander Sosnitsky 2 March 2020 16: 15 New
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    And then America will become our best friend as with Bill Clinton, husband of Madame Clinton. Will we rescue them from the invasion of the Mexicans on the original x? land.
  6. Dart2027 2 March 2020 16: 17 New
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    Russia, by the way, should also not turn a blind eye to the strengthening of the naval power of China.
    We have a land border with China. Their fleet is a US problem.
  7. Ryaruav 2 March 2020 16: 36 New
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    tell me why I have problems at my gas station and a rather large market for my goods, from slippers to microelectronics (I don’t say anything about anchor chains for the Russian Navy) and Russia is a very strong carrier of nuclear weapons, including precision ones (we don’t have competitors here yes, keep an eye on it, but don’t have to panic to joy, not suicides are at our top and admittedly not stupid people, of course, I would like to do better, but what are the Syrian problems? a big showdown over Middle Eastern oil and gas could easily become a very large conflict between Russia and the West on neutral territory, it certainly won’t lead to a nuclear war, but I think some people there want to check Russia for lice precisely in tactical terms, therefore I think our boards sit in hmemi and BDK and tr constantly go to tartus
  8. cniza 2 March 2020 16: 55 New
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    Moreover, given that the entire Asia-Pacific region, including the Far East, is considered as a traditional zone of its interests in Beijing.


    Yeah, they look at the NSR with great interest ...
  9. 川 建国 2 March 2020 19: 14 New
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    Major General of the US Navy said this because he wanted to ask Congress for more money. At present, the naval forces of China and the United States are not at the same level. During the service ceremony for the Shandong aircraft carrier in 2019, Xi Jinping said: “efforts to turn the Chinese fleet into a world fleet!