How Real is Russia's Technological Independence: Facts and Thoughts
The head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Denis Manturov, in a recent interview with the Handelsblatt newspaper of German business circles, said that Russia made the maximum bet on its own digital technologies and solutions, including in the energy sector.
In the interest of national security
Denis Manturov stressed that Russia's desire for independence from foreign IT products is caused by national security considerations. In the future, the government will try to eliminate dependence on foreign suppliers.
As an example, the minister cited history from a slightly different high-tech industry - energy. “I can’t allow the second case,” Manturov said in an interview, “when the supply of turbines to the Crimean peninsula would be called into question."
In this regard, the minister warned Siemens. If it does not transfer intellectual property for the production of large turbines with a capacity of 70 and 160 MW to its subsidiary in Russia, the Russian side will no longer order turbines from it. Russia, according to Manturov, has already begun to develop its own units of this class.
In recent years, we have become accustomed to the term import substitution. In the media and public speeches of government representatives quite often there is information about successes in replacing foreign supplies of food, equipment, components and components for the production of important products for the country.
Behind these positive messages is an unpleasant factor in the new era. In the modern world, the international division of labor is no longer a condition for the effective functioning of the economy. The sanctions that Western governments have carried away are now creating serious problems for individual companies and even entire states.
Russia actively used the advantages of the international division of labor, until it began to annoy the West with its independent policy, strengthening its own economy and authority in the world. The answer was various kinds of restriction, which quickly turned the benefits of international economic cooperation into a big problem for the country.
The level of dependence on imports was prohibitive in Russia. According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade for 2015, it amounted to 44% in the automotive industry, 55% in the shipbuilding industry, 56% in the agricultural machinery industry, 60% in the oil and gas and heavy machinery industries, over 70% in the light and pharmaceutical industries, and in the medical, electronic and machine-tool industry - over 80%, in aircraft construction (including leasing of civil liners) - 92%!
Now the situation has changed positively, at least in the agricultural sector and the military-industrial complex. However, the problem has not lost its relevance. This was shown by the meeting of the interagency commission of the Security Council of Russia on economic and social issues, which took place shortly after the change of government.
In a laconic press release, they said: “The meeting was dedicated to the import substitution of critical technologies in civilian industries. Its participants proposed additional measures of state regulation that would neutralize factors threatening the country's economic security. ”
Russian potential and its implementation
This message has caused a response in the expert environment. It was said that the widely announced import substitution program did not produce the desired effect. They even questioned Russia's ability to gain technological independence. Then they calmed down a bit.
If we discard the extremes in judgments, it is not difficult to notice the positive changes that have occurred in the country in recent years. In Russia, there was its own payment system, electronic devices and their components with high characteristics, their own software, their own processor and much more from the sphere of high technologies.
In the new year there appeared payment cards of the Mir system with a chip for contactless payment of the production of the Russian company Micron. According to experts, these cards are in no way inferior to cards with chip modules of foreign manufacture. But they increase the technological security of the Russian financial system.
The examples presented here from the most high-tech sectors show the potential of Russia. Experts call it a self-sufficient country, implying not only natural resources.
In Russia, a large number of researchers and scientists are 3 researchers per 131 million people (1th place in the world). A high proportion of graduates of engineering and scientific specialties is 29% of the total number of graduates (28,1th place in the world). In this positive picture, there was a place for a fly in the ointment. In terms of volume and quality of investments in new technologies, Russia occupies a modest 13th place in the world.
This is the key question. Knowledge must be converted into real achievements. Without proper funding, this will not work. Last year, the Industrial Development Fund, specially created six years ago to modernize industry, organize new production facilities and provide import substitution, financed 189 projects for a total loan amount of 34,5 billion rubles, which is 30% higher than in 2018 in terms of the number of projects and 24% higher a similar indicator for the amount of loans issued.
In total, in the period 2015-2019, the FRP funded 559 projects of industrial enterprises for a total amount of 119 billion rubles. Moreover, more than 180 borrowers have already launched production in 52 regions of Russia.
Whether it is a lot or a little for a country like Russia, the question is open.
In the media from time to time there are reports that instead of import substitution there is a banal re-marking of foreign products. Last year, according to the Russian Expert website, a Russian telephone an IP phone with quantum encryption was discovered on Amazon. Craftsmen to reduce the cost combined the product, so the super-secure connection turned out to be a big flaw.
In another case, one of the Russian companies introduced Huawei routers and Dell servers, clumsily re-marked for their products. However, these are rare extremes. More often there are cases when companies that are under sanctions simply switch from the Western import market to the Asian one. Either make a new product from Chinese or Indian components.
All these are temporary tricks. The world is entering an era of digital economy and artificial intelligence. Here, you can’t put your “hard-core” into Chinese development. We'll have to spare and spend our own money. The Russian authorities have already declared an independent transition to the digital sphere. There is potential for this. The only question is when and how it will be implemented.
- Gennady Granovsky
- Facebook / Rusnano
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