The sudden displacement of CAA from Serakib is only a “warm-up”. A direct collision is indispensable.

120

As you know, most eminent domestic news and military analytical resources continue to focus the attention of the Runet audience on the official details of the general offensive operation in "Greater Idlib" conducted by the SAA units (with the support of tactical strike and reconnaissance aviation Russian Special Forces Mixed Aviation Brigade), despite the ultimatum rhetoric and threats from high-level representatives of the Turkish defense department, as well as the ongoing attempts by Turkish army self-propelled guns T-155 "Firtina" to organize effective fire support for the Tahrir al-Sham counter-offensive throws at east operating direction.

The continuation of the operation to liberate Big Idlib is doomed to failure without direct fire on Turkish artillery positions in the region


Meanwhile, it should be noted that the information on the operational-tactical alignment in the Idlib theater of operations that appears in these summaries until recently was presented only in a rosy light, replete with victorious reports about the successful development of the offensive actions of the government forces of Syria both in the direction of Neyrab and Msibin (along the highway M4), and in the direction of the Al-Gab valley, with the rapid seizure of control of a number of dominant heights in the southern regions of “Greater Idlib”. It is for this reason that the news of a sudden counter-offensive dash by the Tahrir al-Sham formations in the eastern operational direction (with the subsequent displacement of units of the 25th Special Forces Division of the Syrian army from the strategically important settlements of Seraqib, Wadi Haj Khalil and Wadi Mekar, and also at the M4-M5 traffic junction) was greeted with a fair amount of bewilderment on the part of ordinary observers who have a superficial vision of the situation in the conflict-ridden Syrian governorate.



Nevertheless, there is absolutely nothing to be surprised at. The operational and tactical prerequisites for the impending loss of Neurab and Serakib, as well as the shattering of the combat stability of the fortified areas of the first line of defense of the SAA in the area of ​​the M4-M5 highway, began to be traced back to the tenth of February. It was during this period, when Syrian and Russian media were full of pathos about the defeat of pro-Turkish militants in Neyrab, the engineering units of the Turkish Ground Forces began to build observational (observation) posts and fortified areas on the eastern section of the front in Big Idlib. They were hurriedly transferred to the same operational direction tank brigades, anti-tank calculations, batteries of the Turkish army’s barrel and rocket artillery, as well as significant reserves of the Tahrir al-Sham group, which previously covered the rear approaches to the Al-Gab valley in the south-western operational direction.

And therefore, the currently observed successful advance of the units of the 4th mechanized division of the SAA in the direction of the Al-Gab Valley is a matter of course, fully consistent with the tactical layout in this area of ​​the theater of operations; after all, the layered defense of the Tahrir al-Sham formations in southern ON was almost completely exposed, while the Turkish Armed Forces command decided to "project forces" directly in the Seracibian direction, as well as to form new oporniks in the rear areas of Idlib. As for the further implementation of the SAA march in the direction of the city of Jisr al-Sugur (in the north-western operational direction), then with a high degree of probability it is possible to predict its "stopping" by artillery and anti-tank assets of the Turkish army on the far approaches to the M4 and the settlements of Tel Avar and Muhanbal, which are a critical infrastructure for both the Turkish Armed Forces and the Tahrir al-Sham forces.

This scenario can only be impeded by the final decision by the Syrian Ground Forces and the Russian Air Forces command of the final suppression of the Turkish artillery firing positions at the time of its work on the advancing units of the 4th SAA division in critical areas of the Idlib theater. At the moment, the adoption of such a decision depends solely on the geopolitical will of Moscow, which, unfortunately, has a very precarious position amid intensification of Russian-Turkish military-technical cooperation, expressed in the competitive battle between the leading Russian and American military-industrial corporations over the Turkish market weapons.

There are still some progress towards the likely conduct of an operation to force Turkey to peace. In response to the deployment of additional T-155 Firtina self-propelled guns in Idlib, the Syrian army began transferring a certain number of long-range 152-mm towed 2A65 Msta-B howitzers to active sections of the Idlib military theater, which, when using the latest guided artillery shells, “ Krasnopol-D ”can suppress Turkish self-propelled guns and“ fresh ”convoys in the most remote areas of the province, right up to the Gilvegeozyu checkpoint in the Turkish town of Reyhanli.
Our news channels

Subscribe and stay up to date with the latest news and the most important events of the day.

120 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. +8
    February 28 2020
    The coming days will show how much the author is right or not ... One thing I will say is that these days will not be simple, for everyone involved in this conflict
    1. -17
      February 28 2020
      It seems close to the fulfillment of the notorious "prophecy of Vanga" about Syria and the beginning of global troubles for Russia, which will begin from this country ...
      1. -15
        February 28 2020
        Quote: Snail N9
        It seems close to the fulfillment of the notorious "prophecy of Vanga" about Syria and the beginning of global troubles for Russia, which will begin from this country ...

        The situation resembles the Russo-Japanese one, in which they got into the enthusiastic exclamations of the then-patriots, but which was impossible to win based on the geopolitical situation. A couple of dozen of our aircraft will not win the entire Turkish army. I don’t understand what kind of enemy Turkey is in the current situation - it buys gas, builds a nuclear power plant, buys S-400, resorts again. Some stupidity, or the interests of our oligarchs
        1. +2
          February 28 2020
          Similarly, the situation is similar to the Russo-Japanese War. It is enough for the Turks to block the Bosphorus, under any pretext, not necessarily military, as our group in Syria will be in a critical situation. Air supply will not be able to effectively maintain intensive databases, and a direct clash between us and the Turks is not a fig not in our interests, and not in the Turkish ones either. Erdagan drove the situation to a standstill and we ended up there. Given the urgent attempts to bring down our aircraft, there is a high probability of further deterioration of the situation.
          1. 0
            February 28 2020
            Quote: Yrec
            residuals to the Turks to block the Bosphorus, under any pretext, not necessarily military, as our group in Syria will be in a critical situation.

            A century and a half ago, the British and French supplied their troops in Crimea. This distance is approximately the same as from our Baltic ports to Syria. You just have to hand over to the Navy some more number of trans-transport vessels. And Syria's supply will have to be seriously strengthened.
            Plus, it will be necessary to step up work on the formation of an anti-Turkish coalition. From the Kurds, Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia to the United States and internal opposition to Erdogan.
            1. -7
              February 28 2020
              It’s easier to make the 58th army go through Turkey
              1. +8
                February 28 2020
                Quote: Clever man
                It’s easier to make the 58th army go through Turkey

                So you will lead her, and it would be better if you collect all the "turkey beaters" and go ahead. Let him stay at home, no doubt you can handle the Turks yourself.
                1. 0
                  February 28 2020
                  You are simply brilliant))))
                  1. +1
                    February 28 2020
                    Quote: Clever man
                    You are simply brilliant))))

                    No, ingenious, it is to send the 58th army through Turkey to Syria.
                    By the way, why not immediately to Ankara? Or is it Istanbul? No need to trifle.
                    Well, on the way back, take Berlin again, so that you don’t go a second time, which is really there.
                    1. -2
                      February 28 2020
                      Istanbul will definitely have to be taken by the Russian Federation
                      1. +1
                        February 28 2020
                        So you take it.
                        Give a hat? Or will you manage yours?
                      2. -2
                        February 29 2020
                        Okay, wasn’t going to live forever?
                      3. -1
                        February 29 2020
                        immediately with bulgaria! and the other side of the Greeks as a member of NATO))) drinks
        2. -6
          February 28 2020
          Yes, I have already read, on "YaP" a discussion of the fact that in Syria everything looks like the Russian-Japanese one, only the scale is still not the same, but it is developing and developing. It is clear that if Russia has to clash with the Turks, it will be sour in terms of victory - the Turks will easily cut off the supply and amba. Is it that across the Caspian Sea, but through Iran .... and the Iranians will not fail to recall the occupation of 1941-42 ... It is ridiculous to recall the reports of Russian high officials that "in Syria, everyone has already been defeated ..." -ha. We haven't even started to "win" yet - everything is just beginning. It seems that the United States is simply rubbing its hands - it is clear that they did not risk anything from the very beginning and planned: 1-the minimum task is to overthrow Assad and bring to power the puppets signing "peace with Israel" on the conditions Israel needs, 2-maximum task- to embroil Russia in the war and set it off against Turkey, which by any means, in the end, will lead to the defeat of Russia and the fall of Assad. It seems that everything is developing exactly according to the "second" option -... and the USA and Israel now stand aside and laugh.
          1. +1
            February 28 2020
            Where did you hear "We won everyone!" Don't wishful thinking. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the defeat of "the main group of terrorists and their backbone." Well, why bash how ...
            1. +1
              February 28 2020
              Yes? And here, "this" then - what? :: https://ria.ru/20171206/1510372695.html
              https://www.rubaltic.ru/article/politika-i-obshchestvo/12122017-rossiya-pobedila-v-sirii-i-formiruet-novyy-miroporyadok/
              1. +2
                February 28 2020
                Well, read your links carefully. It also says, "individual foci ....."
          2. -3
            February 28 2020
            or Erdogan will retreat and calm down
          3. -7
            February 28 2020
            Nothing like a REV. Turkey has no oil and gas. We shut off their fuel - like two fingers on the asphalt. And then surrender and Hagia Sophia on a silver platter.
            1. +1
              February 29 2020
              We were also told about the Ukrainians .............. Now we rent their pipe on the "pump or pay" principle, if you want to pump more, the tax is 1.5 times more. No one surrenders before us anymore.
          4. -1
            February 29 2020
            lol suggesting a snowden colleague in you ... I suggest you urgently visit the Kiev military registration and enlistment office Yes
        3. -2
          February 28 2020
          22 minuses! Wow, how the local patriotic quilted jackets were aroused, although I just recalled everything about the Russian-Japanese ... took fire on themselves, so to speak wassat
      2. 0
        February 28 2020
        Read Wang carefully .... What are the global troubles for Russia ?! Your fantasy.
      3. 0
        February 28 2020
        Quote: Snail N9
        It seems close to the fulfillment of the notorious "prophecy of Vanga" about Syria and the beginning of global troubles for Russia, which will begin from this country ...
        The notorious prophecy concerned Iran - "When Persia falls".
        Although yes, Syria can probably serve as a trigger for this scenario.
      4. The comment was deleted.
      5. +2
        February 28 2020
        Wang ...
        If you are a Christian, then you should know that this is a sign of paganism, for the priest does not go to fortunetellers :)
        If you are an atheist like me, then you should not believe in it.
        If you are a neophyte of paganism - then everything is OK, and Wang and Predictamus Suffered :)
    2. -1
      February 29 2020
      yes already healed
      because for a month take 5% of them in 20 days and then give 1-8% 4 time in 3 years, then this is of course a change in trend fellow
  2. +2
    February 28 2020
    At night, the Turks got their teeth. I think Sedna will be the decisive day
    1. +14
      February 28 2020
      Yes, our FAB-500 flew to the Turkish headquarters, 28 two hundredths ... I don’t want to scam, but if they start to drive Russia into a corner, all opponents will get lyuley, we just have no other choice or why we exist in this unjust World, right, that would somehow fix it for the better, so Adyu Turkish resorts ....
      1. +1
        February 28 2020
        Where does infa come from? When did it happen?
        1. 0
          February 28 2020
          https://vk.com/wall-55849790_1017130,Конечно это не 100%но дыма без огня не бывает.
        2. -1
          February 28 2020
          the Turks have many dozens of corpses and therefore in Turkey blocked the Internet
      2. +5
        February 28 2020
        It’s not destiny to be friends with the Turks. Of course it is a pity, but we need to choose either we dictate the rules or to us.
        1. +9
          February 28 2020
          The very idea that the Turks can be allies of Russia, idiocy. There are not many options or a war or an image disaster for Russia, unfortunately, I expect the latter.
      3. +1
        February 28 2020
        Quote: anjey
        so Adyu Turkish resorts ....

        Alas, not everyone is friends with their heads. So this season there will be a stream of news about the various troubles of our tourists in Turkey.
        1. +3
          February 28 2020
          Quote: Captain Pushkin
          Alas, not everyone is friends with their heads. So this season there will be a stream of news about the various troubles of our tourists in Turkey

          Last year, two cops raped a young athlete with her friend in the Krasnodar Territory! I have never heard of such a thing about Turkey.
  3. +6
    February 28 2020
    The author is one hundred percent right. That's just at the expense of the courage of our leadership, I doubt it. And without this, the Syrians will simply run into full-scale hostilities with the Turks. After that, Idlib will move on to the Ottomans. And do not throw me with cheap populist slogans. Tired of cheers patriotism.
    1. -4
      February 28 2020
      Well, go and fight as it should. When populism bothers, it's time to organize everything yourself. I think so
      1. -4
        February 28 2020
        Yes, I would go again and become a bit old. I'm not used to it. But such screams from couch wise men have always been surprising. Well, God be with you. Tired of it.
        1. -1
          February 29 2020
          You are exactly the same screamer-couch warriors. You all know how, defeat everyone and you strive to hit everyone ... only for some reason it is more by someone else's hands. I don't think the soldiers from the trenches will thank you for that later. We already have problems with demographics, so we can "beat" everyone.
          1. +1
            March 4 2020
            Yes, start me on Syria. That’s why I myself fought because I know how it is. But you give the patriots just yelling how to cook in the Americans, Turks., Barmaley .... Strictly look at it.
    2. -4
      February 28 2020
      Yes, do not care at all for idlib, let them take it if they have enough strength
  4. +3
    February 28 2020
    Playing with fire is all, Putin was mistaken for the second time at Erdogan's expense or was not already mistaken, but rather the second time Erdogan put Putin in an awkward position, to say the least, the first time when our plane was shot down, everyone remembers: " back "," let's not forget we will not forgive ", so what? Six months later, Putin and Erdogan hugged, now again, Erdogan is sabotaging the gas pipe and will now demand to surrender Idlib, or maybe something else in exchange for this project, I think Putin will now finally understand that you cannot save dictators and believe them also, as for Assad in general. Turkey is already preparing to launch a large-scale operation, turned to NATO to activate the article of the treaty on collective security and demands the creation of a no-fly zone in Idlib (for a start), the United States has already expressed support, what smells like I think everyone understands, again: "stab in the back", "not let's forget not forgive ", again in general, Putin does not learn anything, unfortunately, but ordinary soldiers pay for everything with their blood ... Interestingly, Erdogan ordered the S-400 specially for NATO, but did we sell it? The question is rhetorical. Can be counted as a third miscalculation or about .. Putin. Okay, let's see how it ends, while the situation is leaning towards an unambiguous defeat, the alternative is a war between Russia and Turkey, which is impossible for many reasons, and above all from our side.
    1. +3
      February 28 2020
      it’s time to get used to the fact that the KGB’s habit is measured 100 times, another 100 times to think is characteristic of Putin. This is both good and bad. There is no temper in decisions. (I will give an example of Stalin’s odious personality, honestly, not for his propaganda, the type of thinking is similar). Therefore, many commentators who do not take into account natural professional slowness, think that it is indecision. I think this is not so. There is an analysis of many components, from feeding the Kurds, for which now it’s time to act, is internal in Turkey, and I think that the Turks will not be given a small victorious war which Erdogan needs it. The diplomatic lines have already been convinced that the flow can be stopped, the tourist-tomato lever, and the nuclear power plant can be stopped (this removes the Turks’ dependence on gas to some extent, they’re just they’ll quit) .. the levers are different. As for the battle for Turkish military orders, the Turks have already spent money, the Patriots weren’t given them either, the Americans are educating them. The Americans will allow the Turks to insist on the pope for the same purpose. would have more support. Work in progress.
      1. +6
        February 28 2020
        KGBshnaya habit 100 times to measure, another 100 times to think characteristic of Putin

        I agree!
        What many mistake Putin for indecision is actually a deep analysis.
        According to his zodiac sign, Putin is "scales". Balance in decision making is the main thing for him.
        I have a son - "scales". Half a day makes a decision, if important. But he chooses the best.
        His silence, the refusal to immediately meet with Erdogan, says one thing - the General Staff is working.
        Ottomans expect unpleasant surprises ...
        1. -2
          February 28 2020
          Quote: Paul Siebert
          What many mistake Putin for indecision is actually a deep analysis.
          According to his zodiac sign, Putin is "scales". Balance in decision making is the main thing for him.
          I have a son - "scales". Half a day makes a decision, if important. But he chooses the best.
          His silence, the refusal to immediately meet with Erdogan, says one thing - the General Staff is working.


          Let’s take a look, while I see only individual tactical successes, for which there is no clear strategy for a strategic victory, the situation is becoming more complicated and spinning more and more every year, expenses are growing, and there are no dividends from this at all, strategically this is a complete failure
        2. +3
          February 28 2020
          I have a wife, scales. Cancels one, the output is different, the hair stand on end!
          1. +1
            February 28 2020
            I have a wife

            You are easier with her ...
            Libra - vulnerable natures! .. wink
      2. +2
        February 28 2020
        Many components are being analyzed, from feeding the Kurds, for whom it is now time to act, internally in Turkey, and I think that the Turks will not be given the small victorious war that Erdogan needs. The diplomatic lines have already been convinced that the flow can be stopped, and the tourist-plus lever, and nuclear power plants stop (this removes the dependence of the Turks to what extent on gas, they will simply speculate for them) .. there are different levers.


        Are you sure that for Erdogan (as a dictator) all the things you listed are more important than his authority and the Ottoman empire? For some reason, for Putin, Crimea was more important than all the sanctions that you somehow stop for Erdogan, and why do not you think that for Erdogan Syria is like Crimea for us and he wants to capture it no matter what?)))
        1. The comment was deleted.
          1. -1
            February 28 2020
            Quote: nznz
            Erdogan's Syrian piece is already much more expensive.


            And Syria is not costing us free either, but have we got something for all the years?
            1. +1
              February 28 2020
              two bases for 99 years, what do you think is worthless, at least strategically?
              1. +1
                February 28 2020
                Honestly, no. Maybe you have information that it gives us strategically, only without general phrases, about "growing influence in the region", this is always said when there is nothing to say, practically what?
          2. -1
            February 28 2020
            Quote: nznz
            he reminds me of something, a Turkish Komsomol member, a ground beetle, but he fell into strong hands

            And Lukashenka very skillfully milked Russia and you and I have been doing for many years, so he, as a politician, is generally well done, he does not wage war, but gets nishtyaki, and his obligations are all in words: " millions of words go to him))) We did not notice the Belarusian troops in the Donbas and Syria, so he just milked us
            1. 0
              February 28 2020
              It is a great mistake to accept the deceit of a person for political merits.
              How did Gorbi and Yeltsin cheer believe and think! And today there are no more despised figures and you will not find, the people have set everything up. And the AG will also stand in a row of which he is worthy. Over time.
              It’s naive to accept indulgence and concessions for the tricky moves of a cunning politician. They allowed, received. Now they don’t give, and here I got it. I already got messages to read about what he says. Nobody drags an alliance to the Russian Federation, nobody! it is he who betrays fakes that is so needed. But he sees perfectly the fate of other leaders who have taken a different path. Everything is nearby. And the union of weaker countries around the powerful is not only a historical law and the law of survival. The strong will survive this way, but pay more. But how can the small ones survive? Where are those Balts? Where Ukraine is distraught .. A cunning proletician, directly some kind of milking apparatus, and not a person.
              Let’s see .. the bench is closed. I would have thought it cunning if he had made a reserve so that he could raise the country to him and rebuked the RF, they say wherever I go to you, my people live better. Catch up. But I don’t see that on Belarusian shrimp, Polish apples and gas our (excess), he did something in reserve. I did not know that when the cornucopia will end? And where is the money ..from oil and speculation in other people's goods? Is this not the main question.? Where did the money go, if the economy is in place, it’s stagnating .. people don’t see something to get rich .... where did it go?
    2. +7
      February 28 2020
      S-400 is interesting Erdogan specifically ordered for NATO, and we sold?

      worse. Given a loan.
      1. 0
        February 28 2020
        but photon reflectors held hopefully .. :)
      2. -1
        February 29 2020
        Thus, our people paid for them. Just get fucked up.
    3. 0
      February 29 2020
      You are an optimist, my friend! This is not being treated ...
  5. +5
    February 28 2020
    Will wait. Good luck to our military and Syrians!
  6. +3
    February 28 2020
    was met with a fair amount of bewilderment with side of simple browsers, having surface vision situation in the conflict-ridden Syrian governorate.

    Finally, the wisest of the wisest Eugene-aka, who deeply studied "what-where-when" happens
    on the far approaches to the M4 motorway and the settlements of Tel Avar and Mukhanbal, which are a critical infrastructure for both the Turkish Armed Forces and the Tahrir al-Sham forces
    He opened our eyes, and even in expressions that arouse certain suspicions. belay
  7. -5
    February 28 2020
    The best advertisement for Russian weapons in Turkey is to hit the Turks in the teeth.
    More reasons to remove the Americans from Figs.
    In addition, no one will force Turkey to buy weapons that they can come and just take away.
    So think less, pull the trigger more.
  8. -4
    February 28 2020
    Strike while the iron is hot
  9. -9
    February 28 2020
    I don’t understand what is the point of risking so many things, in which Russia cooperates with Turkey, for the sake of a piece of land called Idlib, which Russia needs like a runny nose. You can lose everything, but what? What Assad will regain some Idlib?

    I explain that from a historical and ethnic perspective, Idlib for Turkey is about the same as Donbass for Russia.
    1. -1
      February 28 2020
      Quote: ichudov
      I explain that from a historical and ethnic perspective, Idlib for Turkey is about the same as Donbass for Russia.


      Plus or minus it is. And here, as usual, we observe the double standards of the Anglo-Saxons. Donbass must be returned to the "legitimate" government (although there was no legal coup d'etat), and give Idlib to the Turks. From what ....?!
    2. +1
      February 28 2020
      I agree, but only in a broad sense, including the entire territory of Syria. Without Putin’s help, Islamic fanatics would have long been standing at a pistol shot from Tel Aviv. The whole Kremlin pathos is aimed only at protecting the borders of Israel, alas ...
    3. +2
      February 28 2020
      joked? Donbass Ukrainian has become thanks to Khrushchev, and now it is still. But Groundhog day is over and trampling is stopped, we are waiting for Donetsk and Lugansk, and who else will decide to return.
      But those who wish to join Turkey in Idlib can see something besides the mercenary fighters and the Turkish occupation. Are you pulling everything? not from Israel?
  10. -27
    February 28 2020
    The confrontation between Russia and Turkey and the United States, Iran with Israel and the United States in Syria only intensify ....
    With the exception of the Russian Federation and Iran, no one in the world considers the Assad regime, guilty of monstrous massacres and crimes against humanity, the legal representative of the Syrian people.
    Until the United States, Iran, Russia, Turkey withdraw their troops from Syria and the UN-sponsored elections are held, the war in Syria will not end
    1. +8
      February 28 2020
      In Libya, there is a government from the UN. AND?
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. +2
      February 28 2020
      Quote: alta
      With the exception of the Russian Federation and Iran, no one in the world considers the Assad regime, guilty of monstrous massacres and crimes against humanity, the legal representative of the Syrian people.

      Please remind me when the trial of Assad took place, show us evidence of his crimes of which you blame him. At the same time, submit polls for each country around the world that describes the attitude towards the Syrian leader. And before providing this data, let me consider you a liar and a hollow bream. I have the honor
  11. 0
    February 28 2020
    I don’t understand one thing. Why would the Russian aerospace forces come into direct conflict with the Turks? Isn’t it easier for us to give the Syrians self-propelled artillery and counter-battery radars? And let the Turks extinguish.
    1. +2
      February 28 2020
      Quote: andrei2911
      Isn’t it easier for us to give the Syrians self-propelled artillery and counter-battery radars? And let the Turks extinguish.

      In 2010, Assad had under 10.000 units of armored vehicles and under 5000 artifacts. A lot of the old, of course, but the amount ... As if suggestive of the rationality of the transmission of something there.
    2. -3
      February 28 2020
      There is a video on the Web how an Ottoman wedge heels a Syrian tank across the field, with such a level of combat training no equipment can help.
      1. -4
        February 28 2020
        do not write nonsense, there the tank is trying to hide because it could have been a shahid mobile
    3. 0
      February 28 2020
      Already passed to the Syrians air defense. Less Russian Il.
  12. -4
    February 28 2020
    Today flashed infa: the videoconferencing struck a Turkish column heading in the direction of seracib, according to Turkish instagram 200 +78, after which Instagram was blocked, locals talked about more than one hundred 200s, and cars for transporting 200s and 300- x everyone arrives ... wait on
    1. +1
      February 28 2020
      Hk forget about the internal showdown. The Sultan’s position will write any nonsense to discredit Erdogan.
  13. +8
    February 28 2020
    Quote: Orel
    Turkey is already preparing to begin a large-scale operation, appealed to NATO to activate an article of the collective security treaty and demands the creation of a no-fly zone in Idlib (for starters),

    You are mistaken, the article says that if the country is attacked, and in this case, Turkey attacked Syria and fights in Syria, which means that it’s impossible to refer to the NATO article
    1. +2
      February 28 2020
      they do not understand, Taldychat NATO NATO ...
  14. -3
    February 28 2020
    Details are not of interest, the question is different - are we being quietly drawn into the war?
    What are our actions? sluggishly reacting - however, as always, as a result, we get in one's pants; or immediately on the tinsel - all that is available - so that side thinks further what and how.
  15. +5
    February 28 2020
    If Erdogan now does not go head-on with Russia, he will have problems in his travels .... This is his initiative to get into Syria and support the barmaley for his own ambitions, time goes on, money is wasted, there are casualties among the Turkish military, I think this summer season holiday in Turkey, it will already be foiled, I would not have taken my family now to the tourist region, to rest among the relatives of the deceased barmaley and Turks from the Russian Aerospace Forces. On the map today is the image of the greatest and most terrible, Erdogan. A direct clash with Russia can lead to the loss of the Ottoman’s face in all directions, from the army to the Turkish economy.
    1. -5
      February 28 2020
      Quote: Chingachguk
      a direct clash with Russia can lead to the loss of the Ottoman’s face in all directions, from the army to the Turkish economy.

      This whole story may end, as an option, with the partition of Turkey. The United States has been talking about such plans for decades. A more convenient case is unlikely to appear in the foreseeable future.
      The only question is that the Yankers have similar plans for Syria and the Russian Federation. Who will work in the first place? It seems to me that whoever shows the slack will be torn apart.
    2. +1
      February 28 2020
      Quote: Chingachguk
      If Erdogan now does not go head-on with Russia, he will have problems in his travels ....

      It is curious to ask the only question: who has a border with Syria, Turkey or Russia?
      1. +2
        February 28 2020
        Do you think that if Turkey has a border with Syria, then Russia can already collect clothes and bring down from there? Five years shove deep into a famous place?
  16. +3
    February 28 2020
    the adoption by the commands of the Ground Forces of Syria and the Russian Air Forces of Russia of the final decision on the suppression of the firing positions of the Turkish artillery at the time of its work on the advancing units of the 4th SAA division in critical areas of the Idlib theater. At the moment, the adoption of such a decision depends solely on the geopolitical will of Moscow, which, unfortunately, has very shaky positions against the backdrop of intensification of Russian-Turkish military-technical cooperation,
    Even the absence of any military technical cooperation and the complete absence of any other economic ties does not negate the fact that before a direct military clash with a strong adversary, everything must be carefully calculated. And pay attention to the features of the future theater of operations. There are too many factors to be taken into account, and the "intensification of Russian-Turkish military-technical cooperation" is far from the most important of them.
  17. -2
    February 28 2020
    Turks climb into the cauldron themselves .....
  18. +1
    February 28 2020
    Quote: Snail N9
    It seems close to the fulfillment of the notorious "prophecy of Vanga" about Syria and the beginning of global troubles for Russia, which will begin from this country ...


    It’s possible in more detail, otherwise these prophecies in different forms with different sauces) and if possible, the source (I understand that the primary source is most likely Wang)
    1. +1
      February 28 2020
      Banned "Manul" in "Google" again? I sympathize.
  19. +2
    February 28 2020
    Yes, here from any position, except for the gopniks, Eric the Ottoman is wrong. He climbed into a foreign land, therefore, he must receive in full and no matter in whose performance it will be.
    1. -3
      February 28 2020
      Erodogan does not consider this a foreign land, that's the nuance. There is his "Turkish world", which he defends. And this "world" (or rather the war) is right at its borders, and refugees are fleeing to it, to Turkey, not to the Russian Federation. So his motives are partly understandable to me, while Russian (Putin's) ones raise questions. At first they fought with IS, and now they have begun to work on the Turks. What's next? Assad without the Russian Federation will be thrown off in a couple of days. And what then did the Russian Armed Forces do there for all 5 years? The Second World War ended faster with an understandable result, but what is happening in Syria? Maybe Assad is not needed there by anyone except the blood-smeared environment?
  20. +1
    February 28 2020
    "As you know, most of the eminent domestic news and military-analytical resources continue to focus the attention of the Runet audience on the official details of the general offensive operation in" Greater Idlib "conducted by the CAA units"
    Yes. Now I have read the set of news and articles of the Military Review.
    Everything is the same.
  21. The comment was deleted.
  22. -7
    February 28 2020
    I hear the clock ticking in anticipation of the next discharge of the Commander-in-Chief, after the shameful surrender of the Russian Spring, from this miserable Buonaparte they expect exclusively meanness and betrayal.
    1. +1
      February 28 2020
      What russophobes, he drifted behind and let's throw on the fan? How many got out of you? Do not break the shovels.
  23. +1
    February 28 2020
    Quote: Orel
    why don’t you think that for Erdogan Syria is like Crimea for us

    And what does today's Turkey have to Syria? In Syria (which actually separated from the Ottoman Empire in 1920 and became an independent state in 1946), Syrians live. They are NOT Turks. And in the Crimea live RUSSIAN. Recreation of the Crimean Khanate may in principle be desired by the Crimean Tatars. But Ukrainians have no rights to it.
    1. -4
      February 28 2020
      In Syria, there are a lot of nationalities of different ethnic groups and different faiths. Moreover, Syria, like Palestine, is more of a territory than a country. At one time, when the British with the French left there, the borders were drawn in a hurry, out of historical context. Hence the contradictions (both religious and national) between the population, which became the cause of the civil war that has been going on there for 8 years. Moreover, it is already clear that the new Syria will have a completely different configuration. And the Turks "defend" their Turkish world, plus they have practically a humanitarian catastrophe with refugees who are fleeing the war to them, and not to Iran, the Russian Federation or the SA.
      1. +2
        February 28 2020
        They will soon come to defend their "Turkish" world in Russia, look at their maps in front of which Erdogan likes to pose for a selfie so much - there is almost half of Russia, the Turkish world in his opinion, I'm not talking about Crimea, which the Turks a priori consider yours! Do not pee, you need to crush these reptiles mercilessly while they are still sitting in their holes, because as they crawl, it will be too late
    2. -2
      February 28 2020
      And the Turks have nothing to do with these territories, learn my dear history, Turkic-Mongols are nomadic people and can only download rights in their historical homeland - from the deserts of Mongolia where they came from 500 years ago! Like the Tatars to the Crimea, let them go there from where they came to Mongolia, for that matter Crimea should return its old one, the original name - Kherson, and transfer to the Greeks who lived there 2000 years
      1. +1
        February 28 2020
        Sorry, not Kherson, but Tauris, a typo
  24. +2
    February 28 2020
    Here, here Turkey will close the Bosphorus, and what? Closes, well, the Turks, too, life can be complicated. Support Kurdistan, freeze tourist flow, etc. Etc. So, do not make a tragedy from this moment. Everything will be formed, and on the Syrian front too!
    1. 0
      February 28 2020
      Every strategy should have a goal. A, B, C, and so on, with forks and a clear plan of action. Do you see the goal of the Russian Federation?
      1. +2
        February 28 2020
        Get rid of your fifth column to begin with, are you one of them?
  25. 0
    February 28 2020
    I would like to congratulate Damantsev, finally (I hope!)) He heard the voice of the people and began to write texts not overloaded with terms, but something digestible! Keep it up!
    1. +1
      February 28 2020
      After a couple of sentences it’s all the same - oh, yes, Damantsev!
      What about the nuclear power plant - what is the problem of stopping the construction, and demanding immediate payment for the constructed one, in case of failure - to arrest the assets of Turkish companies in Russia? Who is on the hook?
      1. +1
        February 28 2020
        Very simple. We comply with the requirements of the agreements we have signed. Another question is what kind of agreement should be put to the wall ...
        1. 0
          February 28 2020
          Have you read the full text of the agreements? Or do you want to put to the wall based on your inner feelings?
          1. 0
            February 28 2020
            Why should I read the full text of the agreements if I have a head on my shoulders? Information from open sources is enough to say that the establishment of nuclear competencies in a state that has more than 100 years of genocide experience and that does not stop exposing the genocide of Kurds living in Turkey, Iraq and Syria, which relatively recently excluded Russia from its open the list of military enemies (even Armenia was expelled earlier) does not meet the country's long-term interests.
            Moreover, we do it for our money (and Turkey is completely solvent), and besides, no one in Turkey hides neo-Ottoman ambitions, as well as plans to meet the 100th anniversary of the Republic of Turkey (2023) with nuclear weapons.
            Trade with Turkey food and other things corresponds to the concept of Real Politik, but everything else is definitely not. There aren’t even tax preferences when Russia builds this nuclear power plant. Listen to this topic by E.Ya. Satanovsky, S.A. Bagdasarov, and others.


            From taka ..., little ones!
  26. 0
    February 28 2020
    Good day, gentlemen, experts, to the question of who benefits from it, any exacerbation of external political factors, partly to one degree or another, alleviates domestic political symptoms, and this, as we know, is very necessary for both Khazret Leri and the esteemed ......
    1. -3
      February 28 2020
      Sure. For Putin, the Constitution needs to be changed at a run (for some reason, although 4 years ahead), and according to polls, only a quarter of the population is ready to take part in this carnival. This is not enough for a "referendum on confidence" and can seriously complicate its position in the format "and the tsar is not real." We must urgently defeat someone and unite the nation. Lukashenko has jumped off, IS have won more than once, so think further for yourself.
      1. 0
        February 28 2020
        I do not know who will vote for the new Constitution. Here people have already slipped so many times, and here is a new game. So who is involved?
        But it turns out that everyone will go and vote "For". Because it’s not enough, you see, horrible. Like: Let's again believe that everything that happened before was a mistake and a misunderstanding. But now, for sure, everything will be right. And we will support
  27. +1
    February 28 2020
    Well, while the Turks feel at ease, being in the position of "untouchable", extinguishing the Assad forces from art and UAVs. And they even scare the Russian Aerospace Forces with launches of MANPADS. But this is until the moment when they seriously began to "feel". So .... it's too early to wang.
  28. +1
    February 28 2020
    Notice how many pro-Turkish trolls "all-fenders" appeared at once on all open spaces of the Runet. That's it, paws up, Erdogan turns out to be a force, you have to bow to him. Do not piss brothers, Erdogan himself is like a hare, a bunch of problems, the geopolitical situation in Syria is clearly not in his favor, he has no allies there, the only thing, how ironic it was, was Russia. It is necessary to crush the Turks before they wake up!
  29. +3
    February 28 2020
    A direct collision is indispensable.


    with forecasts, the author was several years late. A direct military clash has continued since the destruction of our SU-24 by a Turkish fighter. Now, just for Erdogan, the critical moment is in trying to cling to other Syrian territories and keep the army of militants controlled by him. Apparently the militants are in such a bad position that without the support of the regular units of the Turkish army is only capable of retreat.

    Sudden displacement of CAA from Serakib


    really amused. You need to be fair in that the SAA offensive periodically ends with a retreat from certain settlements. Naturally, if reinforcements in the form of military units of the Turkish regular army approached the militants, then some occupied settlements had to be left.
    The "clever men" are especially striking by trying to draw analogies with the battles of the hoary antiquity and their results.

    One of Russia's goals in Syria is the elimination of international terrorist garbage, the potential of which can be used by the West to conduct terror in Russia and Erdogan wants to keep this garbage by placing it in the territory of a foreign state of Syria. The Russian government inevitably understood and took into account the conflict with Turkey before entering the videoconferencing system in Syria.
    1. 0
      February 29 2020
      Well, that is, the president urgently convenes the Security Council, and is it just ridiculous to you?
      1. +1
        February 29 2020
        Quote: Zefr
        President urgently gathers Security Council


        he collects it for any reason, from the flu and scrofula and at the end of each meeting or conversation with a foreign leader.
  30. 0
    February 28 2020
    The United States hopes to kill three or four rabbits in such a mess.
  31. +2
    February 28 2020
    This scenario can only be hindered by the final decision by the Syrian Ground Forces and the Air Forces command of the Russian Federation on the final suppression of the Turkish artillery firing positions at the time of its work on the advancing units of the 4th SAA Division in critical areas of the Idlib theater. At this moment the adoption of such a decision depends solely on the geopolitical will of Moscow, which, unfortunately, has a very precarious position amid intensification of Russian-Turkish military-technical cooperation, expressed in the competitive battle between the leading Russian and American military-industrial corporations over the Turkish arms market.
    I would argue with this paragraph of Eugene. The price of the issue of the Syrian war is much, much more than Antaeus's dollar profits. At stake is Russia's military and geopolitical prestige on the world stage. We are spending much more on Syria than we have from the Almaz-Antey deal. The pipeline issue also does not cover the set-up. Therefore, I object to you and can justify it. It is a pity that you do not enter into a direct dialogue, HERE.
  32. 0
    February 28 2020
    The most difficult situation: you can’t fight with Erdogan, and you can’t give him Idlib! One thing is clear: this time Idlib will not be completely liberated. It would be nice to return the Seracibian denouement ... Success and good luck!
  33. 0
    February 28 2020
    Neither Iran nor the Kurds said their word,
    Syria did not tighten the reserve.
    There are fighters from Lebanon.
    Russia is in talks to probe and drag out time.
    The fact that Erdogan drones used, self-propelled guns, plus artillery.
    Aircraft of the Turks will not save.
    February 27-28, survive day-night.
    And tomorrow it will be seen.
    Russia can do half the job with one reconnaissance and identification of firing and strongholds.
  34. 0
    February 28 2020
    But sobering up a cocktail of terrorists and about Turkish proxies and regular troops is in all seriousness.
    Not their territory.
  35. 0
    February 28 2020
    Author: Eugene Damantsev; here it’s all :)

    Yes, most likely you are right, there could be a direct collision :) But a number of questions arise about what has been written, strange turns of speech are used in the style of "echeloned defense" and a number of others :) What is this, I know, but where this is observed in Syria I do not know :)
    And Eugene do not call for war, this is not necessary ... I understand you are a mega-analyst and expert, but .... fi fi :)

    not a big observation from life, if you are going to beat your face ... They don’t tell you, step back or I'll give it in the eye, you will be pushed off and then hit. And then threats are raining, but not actions.
  36. +1
    March 1 2020
    Quote: Voletsky
    Author: Eugene Damantsev; here it’s all :)

    Criticizing - offering.
    You write an article. We will gladly appreciate it.
  37. 0
    March 1 2020
    Turks don't have tomahawks? No. No Normal Air Defense? No. And we have calibers that from the Crimea calmly reach Turkey. Well, about that22 (which incidentally was held at the World Cup exercises last week) I generally am silent. No, I do not argue, war is surrealism, And I myself think with horror about it, but purely abstract ...

"Right Sector" (banned in Russia), "Ukrainian Insurgent Army" (UPA) (banned in Russia), ISIS (banned in Russia), "Jabhat Fatah al-Sham" formerly "Jabhat al-Nusra" (banned in Russia) , Taliban (banned in Russia), Al-Qaeda (banned in Russia), Anti-Corruption Foundation (banned in Russia), Navalny Headquarters (banned in Russia), Facebook (banned in Russia), Instagram (banned in Russia), Meta (banned in Russia), Misanthropic Division (banned in Russia), Azov (banned in Russia), Muslim Brotherhood (banned in Russia), Aum Shinrikyo (banned in Russia), AUE (banned in Russia), UNA-UNSO (banned in Russia), Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People (banned in Russia), Legion “Freedom of Russia” (armed formation, recognized as terrorist in the Russian Federation and banned)

“Non-profit organizations, unregistered public associations or individuals performing the functions of a foreign agent,” as well as media outlets performing the functions of a foreign agent: “Medusa”; "Voice of America"; "Realities"; "Present time"; "Radio Freedom"; Ponomarev; Savitskaya; Markelov; Kamalyagin; Apakhonchich; Makarevich; Dud; Gordon; Zhdanov; Medvedev; Fedorov; "Owl"; "Alliance of Doctors"; "RKK" "Levada Center"; "Memorial"; "Voice"; "Person and law"; "Rain"; "Mediazone"; "Deutsche Welle"; QMS "Caucasian Knot"; "Insider"; "New Newspaper"