Military Review

One belt, one way, one coronavirus: will COVID-19 strike a Chinese project

43

One of the most sensitive pain points in China, which is dealt a crushing blow by the deadly epidemic COVID-19 that has spread in this country and is rapidly spreading all over the world, is the ambitious and promising project “One Belt, One Way”. Will the Celestial Empire be able to realize its plans in spite of the misfortune that befell her, or will its “New Silk Road” end, almost without beginning?


Recall that the initiative, widely voiced by the Chinese top leadership in 2013, was declared the country's top priority in foreign economic and foreign policy activity for all the coming years. The colossal project is aimed at unification through the creation of an unprecedented infrastructure and trade network of markets and economies in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. A considerable place in it is given to Russia. Naturally, such intentions with clearly far-reaching consequences from the very beginning aroused hostility in the United States, which rightly saw them as a direct threat to their own claims to the role of world hegemon.

And then the coronavirus struck ... For the world economy unbalanced by trade wars and other confrontations, he played the role of the “black swan”. That is, an unpredictable and unexpected cataclysm, bearing negative consequences, which everyone is destined to feel on themselves.

Today, by far the most affected country in the world is China. The drop in industrial production, quarantine cordons blocking the country, the drop in tourist flow, a sharp decline, and in some respects a complete cessation of exports - all this mercilessly hits the economy of China, threatening, if not destroying, then significantly weakening it for an unpredictably long time. Here, quite possibly, there will be no time for global projects - the priority will be the salvation and revival of their own country.

What international “way” can we talk about, given the fact that an increasing number of countries completely stop air communication with China, close their borders not only for immigrants from it, but also for their own citizens who have been there? The epidemic, like a hurricane, destroys and tears supply chains that have been established over the years, economic ties, and logistics routes. How long they have to recover and whether they will be restored in principle depends on the speed and success of the fight against coronavirus in China itself and the countries in which this disease is rapidly spreading: Iran, Italy, South Korea. Perhaps some others. Today, people infected with COVID-19 have been identified in more than 30 countries.

There is a considerable danger that even for some time after the end of the epidemic, everything from Chinese (contrary to the assertions that the virus is not transmitted through various objects) will be shy away from the plague. And for trips there - it doesn’t matter, tourist or business, only daredevils can dare. There is one more point: the problems arising from the spread of the disease, the same forced shutdowns of production located far outside of China, due to the lack of components and parts traditionally supplied from there, may make some people think about excessive dependence on the Celestial Empire, in recent years arising from many companies around the world. And push for things like diversification and import substitution. And this, too, will not be at all in favor of the development of the "One Belt".

Expert assessments regarding the prospects for the development of the situation today differ to the full polarity. Someone urges to prepare for a global pandemic and almost the end of the world. Unfortunately, among the pessimists there are specialists from the World Health Organization. Others point to the over-inflated panic mood around the disease, compare the number of its victims with the number of those who die from the flu every year, and predict the imminent end of excitement and general horror. Which of them is right, we will know soon. In any case, standing across the new great Chinese route COVID-19 if it does not block it tightly, it will slow down the movement for a long time.
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  1. Keyser soze
    Keyser soze 26 February 2020 15: 57 New
    +5
    Ordinary Chinese trash - Spanish flu tried 50+ million. Again spiz ... copied not that .... laughing

    (humor and satire)
    1. Horon
      Horon 26 February 2020 16: 06 New
      0
      (humor and satire)

      It's more like black humor.
  2. nickname7
    nickname7 26 February 2020 16: 03 New
    +1
    Actually, it worries about China early, this coronovirus is dangerous for all people, it may be necessary to get the whole ball sick ...
    Here they transmit problems in Italy.
    1. Nikolay Ivanov_5
      Nikolay Ivanov_5 26 February 2020 18: 56 New
      0
      If a person intends to expose himself and others to infection with dangerous diseases (does not use personal protective equipment in the territory of the current epidemic, does not go to medical centers for symptoms of illness or escapes from quarantine), the most correct solution would be to equate him with bioterrorists and introduce the appropriate equal responsibility as for terrorism.
  3. Igor Borisov_2
    Igor Borisov_2 26 February 2020 16: 05 New
    +2
    Well, somehow humor about the dead and sick is not decent .....
    1. Keyser soze
      Keyser soze 26 February 2020 16: 10 New
      +3
      Well, somehow humor about the dead and sick is not decent .....


      Well, soon we’ll get sick all - the virus cannot be stopped in any way. And at the same time, they die from the ordinary flu at the same speed, but no one makes problems with it. Just the media are completely hysterical. Zadolbali completely and sang and turned on black humor.
      1. bk316
        bk316 26 February 2020 17: 05 New
        -2
        ordinary flu die at the same speed

        They die, the mortality from the flu is only 50 or 100 times less (they cannot be determined in any way), and the virulence is also much less. And so it’s possible to die from a brick on the head ...
        1. mark2
          mark2 26 February 2020 17: 50 New
          -1
          Ebola virus mortality 40℅
          Bird Flu Mortality 52℅
          Swine flu virus mortality 17℅
          Flu classic up to 13℅ mortality
          Coronovirus only 2,1% mortality

          The journalists are to blame for the panic in the world.
          1. bk316
            bk316 26 February 2020 18: 47 New
            0
            Swine flu virus mortality 17℅

            Should drink less... am

            N1H1 - swine flu - in the Russian Federation 0,02%
            Seasonal flu - in the Russian Federation 0,01%
            H5N1 - yes 52% ONLY HE DOES NOT TRANSFER FROM HUMAN TO HUMAN, so do not touch the chickens or get sick.
            Well, calculate the Coronavirus yourself, apparently about 5%
            BETTER BEFORE WRITING WOULD LIKE TO NAME THE DISEASE laughing
            1. mark2
              mark2 26 February 2020 19: 00 New
              +1
              And when here in Russia? Coronovirus in the Russian Federation isolated cases. By your logic, with regards to the Russian Federation, this is not a virus, it's just a runny nose. Mortality is zero.
              We are all online and we can all find what you need.
              And do not be rude.
              1. bk316
                bk316 26 February 2020 19: 17 New
                +1
                And when here in Russia?

                And because mortality data are transmitted by WHO by region, and are aggregated AFTER THE END OF THE EPIDEMIC. And the coronavirus epidemic is just beginning. Didn't you know? belay And if you do not understand the topic, why write?
                It’s not by chance that I asked about the p-factor, but you seem to be completely off topic.
                What is the p-factor of H5N1?
                Strives for ZERObut it doesn’t tell you anything .... And you write about 52% of mortality. Doesn't it seem better to be silent?

                Let me give a hint. I considered the pandemic matmodels when you hadn’t heard such words. And with coronavirus, it's not like bird flu.
          2. sharp-lad
            sharp-lad 26 February 2020 21: 46 New
            0
            Coronovirus only 2,1% mortality
            I got 2,4%, but still less than the flu average. hi
  4. cniza
    cniza 26 February 2020 16: 07 New
    +5
    One belt, one way, one coronavirus: will COVID-19 strike a Chinese project


    No, it won’t.
  5. bk316
    bk316 26 February 2020 16: 10 New
    +3
    Forget about China. China coped with epidemics. But Italy is unlikely to cope, and there are doubts about Korea ...
    1. Nasrat
      Nasrat 26 February 2020 16: 28 New
      -2
      Quote: bk316
      Forget about China. ..

      Already forget?
      Quote: bk316
      China coped with epidemics. ...

      There are a lot of sick people, but according to yours, did you manage? ... WHO does not know about this ...
      Quote: bk316
      But Italy is unlikely to cope, and there are doubts about Korea ...

      What, there will be no more Italians and South Koreans ??? Have you already buried them? ....

      P.S., A strange mania - to glorify China, and even where problems are on the face ...
      1. tihonmarine
        tihonmarine 26 February 2020 16: 41 New
        +4
        Quote: Nasr
        There are a lot of sick people, but according to yours, did you manage? ... WHO does not know about this ...

        You can cope by developing an effective vaccine. What the Chinese say is far from a vaccine. Russia asked China to issue the strain, but was refused, saying "we will do it ourselves." With this approach, it is not necessary to say that the fight against caronavirus was crowned with success. The infected have already appeared, who have already been ill once. The situation is serious, it cannot be inflated, but it cannot be approached from the position of "throwing our hats", and "we do not have it yet."
      2. bk316
        bk316 26 February 2020 16: 53 New
        +1
        There are a lot of sick people, but according to yours, did you manage? ... WHO does not know about this ...

        WHO knows about this. You simply do not know anything about WHO. laughing
        So for balabol who is lazy to go to the appropriate site - the number of patients in China has been decreasing for a week.
        What, there will be no more Italians and South Koreans ???

        Did I write this somewhere? Or really want to balabolit? The number of cases in Italy in fifth day is growing exponentially and they cannot find the primary focus, by the epidemic spread model with such a p-factor, it is enough that quarantine measures within a country of this size become ineffective.
        Strange Mania - Magnify China,

        Yes, and really strange - are you talking to yourself? laughing
        1. Maki Avellevich
          Maki Avellevich 26 February 2020 21: 35 New
          0
          crown infographic link (updated)

          https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

      3. Aleksandr21
        Aleksandr21 26 February 2020 17: 04 New
        +4
        Quote: Nasr
        P.S., A strange mania - to glorify China, and even where problems are on the face ...


        A man writes a little about something else above the post. Yes, there are problems in China, but the PRC’s policy is very tough and the measures taken are simply unprecedented, for example, criminal liability is imposed for concealing the symptoms of the virus. And the virus is under their control, of course there is a new infection, but every day the number of new cases is reduced + out of 78 cases in China, 064 were cured and these are very good results. But in South Korea and Italy, especially in Italy, not such strict measures and it may well be that the coronavirus spreads across Europe and the Europeans will not laugh. But time will certainly show.
        1. bk316
          bk316 26 February 2020 17: 45 New
          +4
          But time will certainly show.

          Will show the COMING TIME.
          And yes, you wrote everything correctly. Still do not forget about the loot - discipline and loot - this is the best recipe.
          In general, such a parameter as the peak of the epidemic is classically determined, this is when the number of newly sick is equal to the number of recovered + dead (well, in other words, these are sick NOW). China peak has passed (pah-pah). True, there is one thing: immunity seems unstable, and peaks can be multiple ....
      4. mark2
        mark2 26 February 2020 18: 00 New
        0
        . There are a lot of sick people, but according to yours, did you manage? ... WHO does not know about it ..



        77000 out of two billion. This is 0, 00385℅
    2. Mavrikiy
      Mavrikiy 26 February 2020 17: 21 New
      +1
      I agree China has definitely come up. At 77700 infections, 2600 deaths, 27600 recoveries. Salvage defeated evil.
      Italy 230 infections, 7 deaths, 1 recovered.
      SKR 900 infections, 8 deaths, 22 recovered. request
      1. bk316
        bk316 26 February 2020 17: 37 New
        +3
        Salvage defeated evil.

        Salvage and a gun, (like a kind word and a gun) laughing
        I saw a picture from Korea, an employee with a robotic system in a full suit of biosecurity disinfects the street and there is a Korean without a mask nearby - no loot will help ....
        1. Galleon
          Galleon 26 February 2020 19: 48 New
          +1
          Quote: bk316
          Salvage defeated evil.

          Salvage and a gun, (like a kind word and a gun) laughing
          I saw a picture from Korea, an employee with a robotic system in a full suit of biosecurity disinfects the street and there is a Korean without a mask nearby - no loot will help ....

          Just a gun ??? belay belay angry
          1. bk316
            bk316 26 February 2020 19: 49 New
            0
            Just a gun ??? belay belay angry

            Yeah. Put on the mask, put on the mask I said, pum - take it away laughing .
  6. Igor Borisov_2
    Igor Borisov_2 26 February 2020 16: 15 New
    -1
    Quote: Keyser Soze
    Well, somehow humor about the dead and sick is not decent .....


    Well, soon we’ll get sick all - the virus cannot be stopped in any way. And at the same time, they die from the ordinary flu at the same speed, but no one makes problems with it. Just the media are completely hysterical. Zadolbali completely and sang and turned on black humor.


    I agree with you about the flu - in our region many schools have been closed, and they will only be worn out because of the coronavirus, but nothing is said about the flu ...
  7. igorlvov
    igorlvov 26 February 2020 17: 08 New
    +1
    650 thousand die a year from complications of acute respiratory infections, I think the theme of coronagrippa will last until the pharmacists make and shove a couple of lard of vaccines for a couple and fade away, well, and WHO is always with the pharmacists
    1. bk316
      bk316 26 February 2020 17: 40 New
      +4
      650 thousand die a year from complications of acute respiratory infections

      Well, you are all so uneducated and talkative. Well, study the topic - then write. am
      650 out of how many sick?
      And what is the p-factor in ARI?
      Is immunity stable after an illness?
    2. mark2
      mark2 26 February 2020 18: 04 New
      -1
      So the panic and who supports. All for the sake of selling certain vaccines at reasonable prices. All for the money. Previous pandemics also rang out until the World began to buy medicines, making revenue to pharmaceutical companies.
      1. bk316
        bk316 26 February 2020 18: 49 New
        0
        Previous pandemics

        Are you talking about the plague or the Spanish woman?
        1. Reptiloid
          Reptiloid 26 February 2020 22: 34 New
          +2
          It seems to me, speaking of the number of cases, it is worth talking about the size and density of the entire population of the countries in question? Maybe about the climate? recourse
  8. igorlvov
    igorlvov 26 February 2020 17: 11 New
    +1
    On June 11, 2009, WHO Director-General Margaret Chan, announcing to humanity the impending swine flu pandemic, said that it was a new virus that “spreads easily from one person to another and moves from country to country” ...

    Many people in Russia did not notice the pandemic, but drew attention to another - immediately after the World Health Organization announced the beginning of the epidemic, in some cities not quite adequate anti-epidemiological measures were taken. For example, prices for conventional medical masks jumped sharply - two to three times at once, not to mention medicines. More than 4 billion rubles were allocated from the federal budget to vaccinate the population against “swine flu”. Moreover, the vaccine against the "pig" in no way protected from the usual flu.
    1. akunin
      akunin 26 February 2020 17: 54 New
      +1
      Quote: igorlvov
      Moreover, the vaccine against the "pig" in no way protected from the usual flu.

      now the vaccine is polyvalent ("pig" also knocks down).
  9. akunin
    akunin 26 February 2020 17: 48 New
    +3
    Unfortunately, there are specialists from the World Health Organization among the pessimists.
    I don’t quite understand the humor and satire of the aforementioned - there are no drugs (they suggest using anti-HIV drugs), there is no vaccine (when even the patient knows), moreover, it is not very clear with the incubation period and distribution routes. Mortality is relatively small (about 2%) , but somehow I don’t want to confirm the statistics. Now everything is decided on tenerife, in Africa and Iran (Iraq, it also came under the distribution). why there? no one knows how the virus will behave at a high ambient temperature (in the places I have listed, the air temperature is much higher than ours and almost all of China (except Hainan Island) and Europe. on Hainan Island there are isolated cases of the disease and that’s good. China will get out, but here we are.
    1. bk316
      bk316 26 February 2020 18: 51 New
      +2
      I don’t quite understand the humor and satire of the undersigned

      This is from the deep illiteracy of those who wrote. When people were first told about bacteria, they giggled too .... An article or something to write ....
      1. akunin
        akunin 27 February 2020 10: 24 New
        0
        Quote: bk316
        An article or something to write ....

        write, if the god of mind gave. hi
  10. Askold Matveev
    Askold Matveev 26 February 2020 17: 56 New
    +2
    Will the Celestial Empire be able to realize its plans in spite of the misfortune that befell her, or will its “New Silk Road” end, almost without beginning?

    Will succeed. The Chinese are stubborn.
    Coronavirus is dangerous not only to China, it is dangerous to the entire planet.
  11. Minipig79
    Minipig79 26 February 2020 18: 47 New
    -3
    In the words of the comrades of the Romans- Look for who is profitable! In addition to the United States and pharmaceutical pharmacies (most of the United States) nothing comes to mind ...
  12. CommanderDIVA
    CommanderDIVA 26 February 2020 20: 25 New
    0
    Once the author considered the topic of coronavirus and "One Way" one-sidedly, it is also possible to cover the topic of the relationship between coronavirus and Aliexpress, coronavirus and the Chinese space program, in my opinion, if this virus gets out of control, then a furry scribe will come to visit not only to the inhabitants of Beijing, but also to Washington, Moscow and other cities of the planet, the author, if you have already undertaken to analyze this topic, so suggest and solutions to the problem
    1. evgen1221
      evgen1221 26 February 2020 20: 49 New
      0
      At the expense of the coronovirus and aliexpress, everything is normal with them, there was a delay in delivery for a week, and now my parcels have already arrived in the fly. Young people, sorting and sending have already been restored.
  13. evgen1221
    evgen1221 26 February 2020 20: 46 New
    0
    I remember about 5-6 years ago Americans zealously promoted about success in business
    synthesis of DNA viruses (well, those that are sharpened on certain halogen groups of the population), they said that there are serious shifts. Well, apparently the Chinese decided to test.
  14. nikvic46
    nikvic46 27 February 2020 05: 51 New
    0
    I don’t remember such a noise even in the cholera in the 70s in the Volga region, in bird flu. A large movement of people contributes to the spread of new misfortune. Everyone will have to count the losses. The national football championship will start soon. And this is a big crowd. If local authorities don’t will be inert to this disease, everything will work out.
    1. bk316
      bk316 27 February 2020 14: 25 New
      0
      If local authorities are not inert to this disease, everything will work out.

      That's it if yes ....

      Everyone who is interested in this issue now.
      1. Everything will be decided in a month or two.
      2. If the virus comes to the Russian Federation, it will come not from China but from Europe, or less likely from Central Asia.
      3. There will be considerable damage to the global economy. There will almost certainly be a crisis.
      On any of these points I’m betting on grandmas, I’m completely sure.

      Now less likely things, but still significantly probable.
      1. In a month or two, an epidemic will break out in the Russian Federation with the introduction of quarantine in schools, the abolition of public events, and the introduction of a mask regime. Quarantine of some cities is possible in the likeness of China.
      2. Thousands of older people, possibly tens of thousands, will die from the virus.
      3. The epidemic will last at least a year.
      4. The economy of the Russian Federation will receive a catastrophic blow, it will recover several years.
      Personally, I advise you to prepare for such a development of events.

      Unlikely things, but a possible course of events.
      1. A pandemic will lead to a significant reduction in the world's population - tens of perhaps hundreds of millions of dead.
      2. Under the guise will be made attempts, possibly successful, redivision of the world.
      3. The economy will be rebuilt in a military fashion, the American financial pyramids and the dollar in particular will collapse. Who will be able to re-industrialize.
      It’s impossible to prepare for this, so you don’t have to bathe ....