The border of Turkey and Syria: can Assad regain control over it?


Preventing Turkish intervention in Syria could be taking control of the border with Turkey by Syrian troops. Let's try to figure out how likely this scenario is in the foreseeable future.


Today, Turkish troops violate the state sovereignty of Syria, being on its territory against the will of Damascus. Moreover, the Turkish military actually entered the war against the Syrian government forces, taking the side of the armed forces operating in Idlib. But the Syrian Arab army continues to press militants with Russian help.

One of the main goals of the Turkish military presence is to establish control over the border territories. Ankara believes that this is necessary, first, to protect Turkey from the armed forces of the Syrian Kurds, and secondly, they say that Turkmens and Sunni Arabs living in northern Syria need protection from the Bashar al-Assad government. In addition, much is said in Turkey about the humanitarian disaster in Idlib, which led to a large influx of refugees to the Turkish border.

For Damascus, the main thing is to restore its sovereignty over the northern territories, which today are beyond its control. In order to enter the Syrian-Turkish border and completely regain control over it, government forces will have to solve the problem with their three opponents: radical groups in Idlib, the Kurdish militia and the regular armed forces of Turkey. The last task is the most difficult.

If Turkey had not supported the militants in Idlib, then the Syrian troops would have routed them long ago. But the militants receive the most diverse weapons from Turkey, right up to armored personnel carriers and tanks. And the Turkish troops themselves have already attacked the positions of the Syrian government troops.

The military potential of Syria and Turkey is currently not comparable. Despite the fact that the Syrian army has been fighting for a long time and has extensive combat experience, the Turkish armed forces have a good weapon, fresh and well trained staff. Finally, they are much more numerous.

Now Ankara has concentrated very impressive forces on the border with Syria. It was not for nothing that the Turkish Minister of Defense Hulusi Akar and the Chief of the General Staff, General Yashar Guler, recently visited the border. They inspected the personnel of the Turkish troops, checking their combat readiness.

To push the Turkish troops to the border and force them into the territory of Turkey, Syria is not yet possible. Moreover, as more active operations of the Syrian Arab army, Turkey will transfer more and more new units and military equipment to the border areas. The only hope for the Syrians is associated with help from Russia, but Moscow will not get involved in a full-scale armed conflict with Turkey, even on Syrian territory.

Therefore, such a development of events can be predicted. Most likely, the issue of the presence of Turkish troops in Syria will be decided at the talks of representatives of Ankara and Moscow. And here it all depends on what mutual concessions and, conversely, decisive action are prepared by Recep Erdogan and Vladimir Putin. It is possible that Turkish troops may move back to the border, but their presence on Syrian territory will not end.

The complete withdrawal of troops from Syria would be a serious political defeat for Recep Erdogan. Moreover, the Turks, it seems, are gaining a foothold in the occupied Syrian regions for a long time: they introduce their own currency, open educational institutions with teaching in Turkish. The restoration of Damascus’s control over these territories would be a collapse of Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman ambitions, and of course he would never agree to such a development of events. Syria will not force Turkey to withdraw by force.
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  1. Aerodrome 25 February 2020 05: 36 New
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    Today, Turkish troops violate the state sovereignty of Syria, being on its territory against the will of Damascus
    there "of the invited" are generally only ours.
    1. Stas157 25 February 2020 08: 18 New
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      The border of Turkey and Syria: can Assad regain control over her?

      Will be able. If the Kremlin under the Turks does not bend.
  2. Mar.Tirah 25 February 2020 05: 37 New
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    Until it can. Like the Golan Heights, it’s necessary to endure, build up strength and authority. I think these territories can be returned later. In general, everything in this world is relative. Some states arise, others disappear if they show their non-viability. Some Jews are tenacious, their crush and they climb out in another place.
    1. Maki Avellevich 25 February 2020 07: 29 New
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      Quote: Mar. Tira
      Some states arise, others disappear if they show their non-viability. Some Jews are tenacious, they are crushed, and they climbed out in another place.


      Martira, do not lose hope.
      1. Mar.Tirah 25 February 2020 07: 34 New
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        Quote: Maki Avellevich
        Martira, do not lose hope.

        Yes, I focused attention on the example of survival. So you need to be proud that I said it. You’ll fit in everywhere, smear it with everyone, and therefore you will survive unlike other peoples who do not know how to sacrifice themselves for the sake of survival, like Russian soldiers for example.
        1. Maki Avellevich 25 February 2020 07: 43 New
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          Quote: Mar. Tira
          Yes, I focused on the example of survival. So you need to be proud that I said this.

          maybe he didn’t understand it, but the choice of the word "get out" pushes negative connotations.

          and yes. Jews went through a large number of wars and tribulations, terrible defeats and victories over the past few years.
          ruthless selection, as a result of which was bred Surviving jew in latin.
  3. rocket757 25 February 2020 06: 41 New
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    Everything is interconnected.
    An attempt to destroy the state of Syria came from outside, although internal contradictions contributed to this.
    Now, the moment of restoration of the state and restoration of peaceful life, this also depends on external "players" ....
    And the intentions of those external are DIFFERENT!
    1. novel66 25 February 2020 07: 39 New
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      Vit hi and where are the UN peacekeepers, it’s interesting to know
      1. rocket757 25 February 2020 07: 46 New
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        Hello Roman soldier
        UNushka, if it has not become abusive, then it will not be long. For business.
  4. Gene84 25 February 2020 07: 25 New
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    Syria has not yet been able to regain control of the border with Turkey. Syria does not have enough strength for this. Russia will not go to an open conflict with Turkey. We will negotiate with the Turks and possibly agreed that part of the territory of Syria will remain under control, and Turkey will make concessions to us in other matters.
    1. papandopala 25 February 2020 08: 41 New
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      Quote: Gene84
      Syria has not yet been able to regain control of the border with Turkey. Syria does not have enough strength for this. Russia will not go to an open conflict with Turkey. We will negotiate with the Turks and possibly agreed that part of the territory of Syria will remain under control, and Turkey will make concessions to us in other matters.

      Or maybe vice versa. To stop Moscow, Ankara will close the Bosphorus Strait ”, this outweighs all the tourists, and the Turkish stream and the NPP <POMIDORS> And the C400 isn’t what happened so much hodovachka https://mk-turkey.ru/blog/povestka/ 2020/02/24 / ostanovit-moskvu-idlib-sr.html
  5. high 25 February 2020 07: 30 New
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    Quote: Mar. Tira
    .One Jews are tenacious, they are crushed and they climbed out in another place.

    You insult Christianity who pray to a Jew ....
    The Virgin Mary the Most Holy was Jewish. And Jesus was a Jew.
    John the Baptist, who blessed the first holy baptism, was a Jew.
    And all four Gospel writers were Jews. And all twelve apostles.
    1. novel66 25 February 2020 07: 38 New
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      Yes Yes! for it was said:
  6. Livonetc 25 February 2020 07: 45 New
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    Please explain about the quality of the Turkish army declared in the article, "fresh personnel"?
    What exactly does this mean?
  7. SanSanych Gusev 25 February 2020 08: 52 New
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    Amad must be announced that Syria will create a 30-kilometer zone in Turkey to protect the Kurds!
  8. Hermit21 25 February 2020 08: 59 New
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    Syria may not force. But the imperial astronauts have been hinting at the Turks for about a week now that it is time to honor
  9. akunin 25 February 2020 09: 02 New
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    The border of Turkey and Syria: can Assad regain control over it?
    the question is not posed correctly
    The border between Turkey and Syria: will Putin be able to regain control over it?
    Assad has not been able to do anything for a long time.
  10. Xenofont 25 February 2020 11: 36 New
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    In existing realities, Assad fails to create a full-fledged combat-ready army, for the hat-wise mentality wins. How many young men are sitting on hookahs or engaged in trafficking when a war is near. The philosophy of opportunism dominates in the society there: like, and you can live with the Igiloids.