LNG is “advancing”, it is time for Russia to prepare for serious “battles” in the gas market


We are used to the fact that the gas topic is being actively discussed with us, and throughout the world, in the fall and early winter. And with the onset of January, it disappears from the front pages of publications, loses its relevance. Contracts are concluded, the market is divided, premiums are distributed.


Meanwhile, judging by the “orphan” winter, on the sidelines of gas companies, a search is now under way for not even increasing, but at least maintaining existing supplies to both Asia and Europe. In particular, European companies, frightened by the "gas war" between Russia and the United States, filled their storage facilities to the eyeballs.

Significant adjustments to the situation with gas are also introduced by the panic associated with another disease from China. Coronavirus hit the global economy very hard. Many industries are declining today. Gas consumption, respectively, too. It is clear that in a month and a half they will forget about the virus. But the restoration of production will take some time.

Gas sampling today is below standard. It is already clear that there will be no predicted emptying of storage facilities by spring. As there will be no active search for gas to fill them. Europe will wait for cheap summer gas. Although, everyone is well aware that the price even for winter gas will fall.

We are traditionally one of the main suppliers of gas to the EU countries. Pipeline gas, which is used by most countries, is ours. And gas transportation systems, which have existed for a long time and work successfully, contribute to this. But for several years, LNG has been competing with pipeline gas. Moreover, LNG is literally entering the European market.

Probably, any of the readers can tell about the main advantage of pipeline gas, about cheapness. And it will be quite objective. Pipe is the cheapest transport for gas supplies. In addition, the consumer does not need to build expensive gas liquefaction plants.

It's like that. But the facts, statistics over the past year, speak of something else. LNG supplies to Europe in 2019 beat historical record. 76 million tons of liquefied gas! Which is equivalent to 105 billion cubic meters of pipeline! The market grew by 55%!

And the trend of an increase in the share of LNG will continue. If you look at the market growth figures, it turns out that the share of Europe in global LNG consumption in 2019 increased from 13% (2018) to 21% (2019).

The “gas war” in the sphere of LNG supplies between the USA and Russia was widely discussed in the press. Options were calculated, forecasts were made, and in the end we defeated the Americans. Could resist their expansion.

Win something won. But they took second place in the list of LNG suppliers. But back in 2018, we were the first. So, Qatar has again become the main supplier of LNG to Europe. We are second, and Americans are third.

Everything seems to be fine. But let's look at another figure, which will call into question our advantage in the European market. We have tripled our LNG supply. It is clear that this happened due to the Yamal gas. Russia delivered about 18 million tons of LNG. And the USA for the same period increased deliveries five times! Up to 18,3 million tons. Our share is 20%, US 24% of total LNG supplies.

What is the perspective? In the future, we will increase LNG production in Yamal. All other things being equal, we have an advantage over the Americans in terms of cost of gas. And again, but ...

The Americans report that it is in 2020 that the United States will commission new LNG facilities. An increase in LNG production in the USA is planned no more and no less than by 50%! In numbers, it looks even stronger. The additive will be 21 million tons (29 billion cubic meters). And where will this gas go mainly?

Let's try to draw conclusions from this situation. Firstly, the glut of the European gas market, and indeed the world as a whole, is a reality. And this means that the price of gas will fall. Secondly, the low price of LNG will stop some of its production capacities, which will positively affect the pipeline gas market.

Thirdly, completely different, apart from economic, market mechanisms will enter the “battle”. As I noted above, the cost of Russian LNG is lower than American. However, Americans have many leverage over consumers.

They will simply force the Europeans to conclude long-term contracts and work for their (Europeans) “warehouse” account. Under these contracts, Europeans will be required to buy American LNG or pay for its liquefaction. And this is almost 50% of the total cost of LNG!

We should prepare for serious “battles” in the gas market. 2020, most likely, will not bring big profits. Yes, and increased supplies, too. In my opinion, our gas companies will have to fight even to preserve the already developed markets.
Author:
Photos used:
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  1. Finches 6 February 2020 06: 53 New
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    I don’t know who is preparing for what, but Miller now has a different real smut! He ponders how to get rid of Kokorin’s criminal mug and discard him from the Zenith, so as not to cheapen! And then in the club’s locker room the discipline is at zero, the legionnaires are already starting to work on the hair dryer, demanding from Semak to clarify where he stomped the zone, singing menacingly: "Well, fraer, you handed it back ...."laughing
    1. Monster_Fat 6 February 2020 07: 16 New
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      It seems that Sechin thinks more about football than about the former “national heritage”. Well, it’s true, having transferred a controlling stake to an “unknown person”, it is quite possible to concentrate on your favorite football despite the fact that the subject has not lost his “salary”, as well as the awards for the “result” of the company’s activities.
      1. Svarog 6 February 2020 07: 39 New
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        Quote: Monster_Fat
        It seems that Sechin thinks more about football than about the former "national heritage"

        So what should he think about then .. about the public domain, there is no point in thinking .. when there is something to raise money they will drip .. But about hunting, football .. -this is interesting ..
    2. Starover_Z 6 February 2020 07: 26 New
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      LNG is “advancing”, it is time for Russia to prepare for serious “battles” in the gas market

      Have to pull and sell it to your outback! To supply their northern cities with completely natural gas!

      House with gas cylinders (propane-butane - Arkhangelsk) And there are not a few of them!
      1. Pessimist22 6 February 2020 07: 41 New
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        I agree with you, why worry about the capitalists? Gas will be cheaper in any way, competition in the market, so yes, let it be delivered to the domestic market and pipes will be sent to cities and towns.
        1. kjhg 6 February 2020 07: 59 New
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          Quote: Pessimist22
          Gas will fall in price for anyone, competition in the market, so yes, let it be delivered to the domestic market

          Have you forgotten the gas pricing law in Russia? Oil in the world rises in price - gas prices in Russia are rising. Oil is getting cheaper - prices are rising to make up for losses. Why would gas prices behave differently? For information, at the last energy conference in St. Petersburg last year it was announced that gas prices in Russia would begin to grow at a rapid pace.
          “Let's be honest with each other and admit that this“ crossroads ”, when we supported the domestic market through export, will probably no longer be in such a situation. Those prices of $ 400−500, which we once saw, some generation after us, God forbid, will see. This pillow is gone. I think that it will come to the leadership of the ministries and departments in some time, they will realize it, ”Viktor Yatsenko, deputy head of the Gazprom’s economic expertise and pricing department, said at the Russian Gas Forum 2019.
          1. depressant 6 February 2020 09: 16 New
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            Kjhg, in this statement, Yatsenko is the near-sightedness of not only Yatsenko himself, but also the leaders of the state. In the person of Putin, and now - the premiere of Mishustin. Not the ministries should have a headache about the economic strategy of the state, but the top officials. It is they, the first persons, who determine the direction of economic development and give the task to the ministries, it is their imagination that should work. But - does not work! Putin only had enough to make him the tax collector. And that’s all.
          2. vladimirvn 6 February 2020 16: 19 New
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            In short, the conclusion will be robbed. In order to compensate for the losses. Today, payment for a communal apartment, again drove me into depression. Prices are rising for everything.
            1. kjhg 6 February 2020 16: 24 New
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              Quote: vladimirvn
              In short, the conclusion will be robbed. In order to compensate for the losses.

              But how then? Why did they break up the Union? To rob Russia.
              Quote: vladimirvn
              Today, payment for a communal apartment, again drove me into depression. Prices are rising for everything.

              And don’t talk. But you can’t give up, you need to survive no matter what. Someday it should end.
              1. vladimirvn 6 February 2020 16: 28 New
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                Quote: kjhg
                Someday it should end.

                Thank. They made me laugh. laughing How will it end?
      2. Svarog 6 February 2020 07: 41 New
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        Have to pull and sell it to your outback! To supply their northern cities with completely natural gas!

        Here, in order to be profitable, the outback must be endowed with money .. ZP should be in people like in Europe, and people need to propagate ... and this is very expensive and a lot of trouble ..
      3. Hagalaz 6 February 2020 07: 42 New
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        In my opinion, it’s easier for them to raise domestic tariffs again and compensate for losses.
      4. Nikitich 6 February 2020 07: 44 New
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        This is the last thing. First, we will try to give out to everyone who wants it for free, and only then sell it to "our"
      5. Avior 6 February 2020 07: 49 New
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        This is a freezer under the window, I wonder?
      6. domokl 6 February 2020 09: 33 New
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        Quote: Starover_Z
        Have to pull and sell it to your outback! To supply their northern cities with completely natural gas!

        Why the hell to pull gas pipelines there? Expensive and dangerous. I, for example, have 6-7 kilometers to the plant. And yes the gas liquefaction plant is the same or slightly larger. A gas "store" 15 meters from the entrance. They bring liquefied gas once or twice a month and it enters a bunch of surrounding five-story buildings. No pipelines.
        Can they use the same in the north? Moreover, the Yamal of this SPN gives the most I do not want
        1. sibiryk 6 February 2020 14: 02 New
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          Alexander, you seem to live in Omsk, are there really any gas tanks left in the Oil industry? I left Omsk in 2000 (I lived at Moskovka -2), so we just removed the gas tank at that time.
      7. The comment was deleted.
      8. tihonmarine 6 February 2020 09: 39 New
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        Quote: Starover_Z
        House with gas cylinders (propane-butane - Arkhangelsk) And there are not a few of them!

        It has been since the beginning of the 70s, my parents also had gasification in the 70s in this way. Parents have long died, and gas cylinders still stand.
    3. novel66 6 February 2020 08: 13 New
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      no. Well, the real problem! lol
      1. Avior 6 February 2020 08: 23 New
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        Intrigue is just smile
        It doesn’t look like floral .... what
    4. AA17 6 February 2020 13: 16 New
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      Dear Eugene. You said it well "... Miller now has a different real smut! .."
      The AUTHOR did not touch on a very important topic. Serious battles in the European natural gas market are between the suppliers of RUSSIAN GAS (conditionally) by the state-owned company Gazprom and the private company NOVATEK. "... In other words, the conflict between Gazprom and Novatek could seriously reduce Russia's income from gas sales ..." When NOVATEK was organized, it was planned that this company would supply liquefied gas to CHINA, to Southeast Asia.
      But for some reason, NOVATEK began to supply LNG to Europe (probably the main participants in the project decided so): "... The fact is that Yamal LNG sends an overwhelming amount of gas to Europe - it’s easier and more profitable in terms of logistics. Go Gas carriers can only go to Asian markets via the Northern Sea Route for several months a year, the rest of the time it goes through the Suez Canal, for example, the first LNG from Yamal arrived in Japan only in December last year ... At the same time, Europe remains the key Gazprom’s client, who buys gas through numerous pipelines from Russia. To avoid competition, the head of Novatek Leonid Mikhelson previously promised to supply the vast majority of Yamal LNG production to Asia - and this was one of the conditions for supporting the project. But in 2019, 80 percent of gas from the Russian Arctic went to the European market, its share in the region as a whole amounted to almost 20 percent. For comparison, US supplies so far close only 13 percent. Thus, Novatek is directly related to the problems of the Russian state-owned company in terms of revenue reduction. And the arguments that Russian LNG goes to countries that are not bound by contracts with Gazprom can hardly be convincing. After all, the LNG market is common, and where specifically gas carriers with Russian goods are floating is not so important.
      Initially, Gazprom did not like this situation. “Any cubic meter of LNG delivered to the European market is minus one cubic meter of the same Russian gas,” explained Nikolai Kislenko, deputy head of the Gazprom's prospective development department, back in 2017. The losses of the state budget in 2018, when Novatek’s deliveries to Europe were almost three times less than the current ones, the state company estimated at 30 billion rubles. The losses included a number of serious benefits that Yamal LNG has. For example, for 12 years the project is exempted from mineral extraction tax (MET), from property tax, from VAT when purchasing equipment that has no analogues in Russia, and also from duties on LNG export. In addition, he pays income tax at a reduced rate of 13,5 percent, not 20 percent. "Https://lenta.ru/articles/2020/01/23/lng/
      P.S. Something like this.
    5. NEXUS 6 February 2020 14: 32 New
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      Quote: Finches
      I don’t know who is preparing for what, but Miller now has a different real bunt! He ponders how to get rid of Kokorin’s criminal mug and discard him from the Zenith, so as not to cheapen!

      Are you serious? That is, in your opinion, Miler does not sleep at night in thought, what to do with this football player (namely a football player)?
      In the world now there is a war of corporations and here mastodons of the world economy really converged. What nafig Kokorin?
      1. Finches 6 February 2020 16: 07 New
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        In principle, of course, I was joking, but it seems to me that Miller first of all thinks about his pocket, then about the pocket of his relatives, then about the pocket of his curators, then about the pocket of friends, then about the pocket of mistresses (if any), after the pocket of colleagues and only then about Russia (after having read the name of our country on the map)! That is why Germany is gasified an order of magnitude better than us ... and Kokorin, just fits into the thoughts of a pocket! hi But this is my subjective opinion!
  2. Vasily Ponomarev 6 February 2020 07: 05 New
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    US sells LNG not to countries, but to tanker operators who decide where to sell this gas
  3. Far B 6 February 2020 07: 06 New
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    This is how to understand:
    We are second, and Americans are third
    и
    Russia delivered about 18 million tons of LNG. And the USA for the same period increased deliveries five times! Up to 18,3 million tons. Our share is 20%, US 24% of total LNG supplies
    My math begins to freeze, adnaka.
    1. smart ass 6 February 2020 07: 26 New
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      Half of the articles come out niochem, begins to turn into trash
      1. Mityay65 6 February 2020 08: 13 New
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        ?? repeat
        The “gas war” in the sphere of LNG supplies between the USA and Russia was widely discussed in the press. Options were calculated, forecasts were made, and in the end we defeated the Americans. Could resist their expansion

        An article about the defeat of the damned Yankees near Greifswald, the stump is clear ...
      2. Nyrobsky 6 February 2020 08: 46 New
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        Quote: Clever man
        Half of the articles come out niochem, begins to turn into trash
        Why about nothing? Gas and oil, these are the resources for which wars are being waged, and therefore where, if not on a military review, it is necessary to talk about the root causes of these wars causing. Tanks, planes, ships are just tools that help propel gas, or stop its flow. Why did Iraq, Libya and Syria blaze? Because they were "lucky" to have deposits of energy resources. Vanuatu has no deposits, so there are no mattress carriers in their waters.
    2. major147 6 February 2020 09: 27 New
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      Quote: Far In
      My math begins to freeze, adnaka.

      "Russian" look too freezes? lol Joke!
      Now about the USA and mathematics.

      In October 2019, Russia ranked second in terms of energy supplies to the United States. According to a report by the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, that month 20,9 million barrels of oil and oil products were exported from Russia to the United States. This is a record high over the past eight years.
      According to statistics, Russia is usually on the third line in the list of the largest energy suppliers in the United States. Our country managed to change its position in October due to an increase in the share of petroleum products (their supply increased 2,5 times compared with the figures at the beginning of 2019).
  4. Lamata 6 February 2020 07: 09 New
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    Is it Miller who will be the main fighter for our gas traffic? He had repeatedly shown himself to be the commander of the sky.
  5. Uncle lee 6 February 2020 07: 10 New
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    On Sakhalin, LNG produces about 10 million tons of liquefied natural gas per year
  6. 30143 6 February 2020 07: 27 New
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    Instead of thinking how to consume it inside, they only think about abroad.
    And if they refuse to buy gas at all? What will happen then? ....
    One gets the impression that Russia will not. Money will be lost.
    They don’t know how to live differently. The brains are not for those goals sharpened.
    Only gas ... I'm in shock.
    And people still live in barracks.
    It would be better if they were silent with such topics, so they are discussing. The author did not understand that he wiped his feet about himself.
    1. Lamata 6 February 2020 07: 39 New
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      Why, in domestic consumption, they think, in the direction of an increase in prices.
    2. depressant 6 February 2020 07: 42 New
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      30143, The author did not wipe his feet against himself, he showed weakness, one-sidedness, and therefore, the flaw in our economy. What is fraught for us all.
  7. Mityay65 6 February 2020 07: 38 New
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    Probably, any of the readers can talk about the main advantage of pipeline gas, about cheapness. And it will be quite objective. The pipe is the cheapest transport for gas supplies

    There is a notion well known to economists and gas traders of the term "comparative effective transport leverage" for pipeline gas and LNG. This is a value that shows how far it is cost-effective to transport gas through the main pipeline in comparison with the transportation of LNG carriers, i.e. up to a certain distance it is advantageous along the pipe, and above on an LNG carrier. According to different estimates, it is different for different conditions, economists consider from 1500 km to 4000 km. And the figure changes over time, because technology, cost of equipment and economic structure are changing. Modern economists believe that the effective transport shoulder for gas is 2500 km. Those. at a distance of up to 2500 km, it is advantageous to transport gas through labor, and at a greater distance, it is more advantageous to carry LNG. Therefore, declarations like “The pipe is the cheapest transport for gas supplies” are just meaningless chatter.
    In addition, the consumer does not need to build expensive gas liquefaction plants.

    “Liquefaction plants” are commonly referred to as “regasification terminals”. Equipment for such a terminal is much cheaper than the cost of equipment for a gas pipeline, and now it is rapidly falling in price, because quickly mastered by industry, especially by the hardworking hardworking guys from Southeast Asia, in contrast to the equipment for the main gas pipeline, where the main components - powerful gas turbines and compressors are produced by units in the USA and Europe, for reference - in our SP-2 only half the pipe, on-ground compressor and underwater fittings from the camp of the adversary. And if you take into account the cost of renting land under the main gas pipeline, with an exclusion band of 100 m, guarded by jeeps and helicopters, then the question is, which is generally cheaper.
    The “gas war” in the sphere of LNG supplies between the USA and Russia was widely discussed in the press. Options were calculated, forecasts were made, and ultimately we defeated the Americans. Could resist their expansion

    How did we defeat the Americans? In fact, SP-2 is still in a state of tragicomedy, if you are not in the know. The recessed end of the pipeline at a distance of 150 km from the coast - well, isn’t it comical?
    We were forced to sign an unprofitable agreement with Ukraine, according to which we must daily to pump a certain share of gas - the condition is "download or pay". If we don’t pump, then it’s our problem to pay for daily volume pumping should. This is significantly worse than before.
    Where is the victory over the Americans here?
    All this is a defeat for gas policy and, in general, a click on the nose ... They hoped so, they hoped to build an SP-2 and heal them, they adapted themselves to Europe, they merged New Russia, they almost disowned Donbass, they forgave any trick, and in vain - click on the nose ...
    1. Monster_Fat 6 February 2020 07: 59 New
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      You shouldn’t be so, the "potreots" already, who almost "defeated the dying USA", and who firmly believed in the infallible, "unyielding", "lifted Russia from their knees," the "Sun-faced", may experience an apoplepsy blow from your words, motivated by cognitive dissonance " Do not take away from the unfortunate the last faith in the infallibility of the KPP and "we will soon live." yes .
    2. Stirbjorn 6 February 2020 09: 08 New
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      Quote: Mityai65
      How did we defeat the Americans? In fact, SP-2 is still in a state of tragicomedy, if you are not in the know. The recessed end of the pipeline at a distance of 150 km from the coast - well, isn’t it comical?
      We were forced to sign an unprofitable agreement with Ukraine, according to which we must pump a certain share of gas every day - the condition is “download or pay”. If we don’t pump, then this is our problem - they should pay for the daily volume of pumping. This is significantly worse than before.
      Where is the victory over the Americans here?

      With the South Stream, too, it turned out crookedly - initially they were going for 4 threads, instead of two, as a result, without transit through Ukraine, in any case, in any way. Moreover, Turkey is reducing our gas consumption through TANAP. Miller, of course, in general, failed on all fronts, it is simply amazing how everything can be overwhelmed - it’s an option to provide for the sanctions of the Americans and have the pipe layer ready
    3. Astoria 6 February 2020 09: 59 New
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      We were forced to sign an unprofitable agreement with Ukraine, according to which we must pump a certain share of gas every day - the condition is “download or pay”. If we don’t pump, then this is our problem - they should pay for the daily volume of pumping. This is significantly worse than before.
      Where is the victory over the Americans here?
      Poland is not going to extend the contract for gas transit, 30 billion cubic meters will go to the Ukrainian direction.

      As for victories, it reminds double-circuit thinking: chi zrada, chi peremoga!
      1. Mityay65 6 February 2020 11: 45 New
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        Quote: Astoria
        Poland is not going to extend the contract for gas transit, 30 billion cubic meters will go to the Ukrainian direction.

        Well, not really like that. In accordance with the Third Energy Package, Poland is obliged, after the termination of the transit agreement, to put up gas transmission capacities for auction. Whoever buys them will use them. Gazprom has proudly announced a couple of times that he is the only buyer and he doesn’t really want to buy these capacities. They do not need him de nafig, and de will do without them ...
        I suspect that this will end with the fact that Gazprom will have to buy these capacities at the last minute, having forgotten their proud posture ... sad
        By the way, according to the agreement with Ukraine, Gazprom will be able to buy additional capacity for pumping through the Ukrainian GTS. But the price is not determined, it is negotiable, in Kiev they rub their hands in anticipation. I believe that Ukraine and Poland will enter into a conspiracy on this subject and are now doing just that.
        That's how we defeated the Americans.
        1. Astoria 6 February 2020 11: 55 New
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          I suspect that this will end with the fact that Gazprom will have to buy these capacities at the last minute, having forgotten their proud posture ...
          What are your suspicions based on other than OBS?

          By the way, according to the agreement with Ukraine, Gazprom will be able to buy additional capacity for pumping through the Ukrainian GTS. But the price is not determined, it is negotiable, in Kiev they rub their hands in anticipation. I believe that Ukraine and Poland will enter into a conspiracy on this subject and are now doing just that.

          If Gazprom decides to increase supplies to Europe through Ukraine in excess of the volumes specified in the new contract, the company will have to reserve additional capacities in the Ukrainian gas transportation system. In this case, the contract provides for increasing coefficients for transit: booking additional capacities per quarter will cost 1,1 times more than the usual rate, per month - 1,2 times, per day - 1,45 times. That is, the maximum rate increase is up to 45%.
          - it's not a secret

          That's how we defeated the Americans.
          invented by yourself - denied by yourself laughing
    4. Roman070280 6 February 2020 12: 50 New
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      How did we defeat the Americans? In fact, SP-2 is still in a state of tragicomedy, if you are not in the know. The recessed end of the pipeline at a distance of 150 km from the coast - well, isn’t it comical?
      We were forced to sign an unprofitable agreement with Ukraine, according to which we must pump a certain share of gas every day - the condition is “download or pay”. If we don’t pump, then this is our problem - they should pay for the daily volume of pumping. This is significantly worse than before.
      Where is the victory over the Americans here?



      "Money of Russian pensioners at the bottom of the Baltic Sea"
      Author V. Putin. Oil on Canvas, 2019
    5. CommanderDIVA 6 February 2020 18: 18 New
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      I recently read in the media that, in my opinion, Gazprom pumped 40 percent less gas through Ukraine in January than under the terms of the contract, but paid the full amount in accordance with the contract, in my unexperienced view from my sofa this is a failure our gas monopolist
  8. antiaircrafter 6 February 2020 07: 39 New
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    In my opinion, our gas companies will have to fight even to preserve the already developed markets.

    Let them fight for the undeveloped gas market in Russian villages.
    The field is not plowed.
    1. Avior 6 February 2020 07: 54 New
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      They seem to find this market less solvent.
      Someone must pay for the construction of networks and other gasification works.
      1. Lamata 6 February 2020 07: 58 New
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        Back in 2009, my father, who lives in Sochi, was confronted with the idea that he could carry gas into the house and connect (20 meters of pipe) 100 rubles. Just nishtyak.
        1. Avior 6 February 2020 08: 21 New
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          And if you need to go to a village in the distance?
          They set themselves the task of not providing the population with gas, but of ensuring maximum profit, therefore, priorities determine prices
          1. Lamata 6 February 2020 08: 38 New
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            I am silent about the remote villages. In the same Sochi, those NPs that are 15 km from Sochi itself about gas and energy are thinking. Yes, even those who do not stutter closer
            1. Lamata 6 February 2020 12: 01 New
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              Like millerata or about. laughing
          2. 30143 6 February 2020 10: 11 New
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            For these purposes, there is gas in bottles.
            In Norway, I noticed that an electric branch runs through the fjords to a lonely house on a mountain.
            Everything is on electricity there. Gas only to the power plant. And in the bottles to the restaurants. Nobody pulls pipes, they dig like moles.
            And, in general, the burning of hydrocarbons is harmful to the environment.
            Now I will issue a slogan - nuclear power, that's all!
  9. rocket757 6 February 2020 07: 51 New
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    LNG is “advancing”, it is time for Russia to prepare for serious “battles” in the gas market

    It is still very warm, conversations, conversations will continue.
    Suppose the REAL WINTER comes, then?
    In general, it all depends on the circumstances ..... but, where is the energy sector and how to get around its problems? NPPs will be closed, coal-fired TPPs seem to be waiting for the same fate ... what will the boiler houses be heated with? Or will they unscrew all the bulbs, turn off the robotic machines and put the Tesla on a joke or something?
    In general, it is still necessary to look and calculate how it WILL, and not how they fantasize.
    1. 30143 6 February 2020 10: 14 New
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      Believe me, they will get out. They will come up with and, most importantly, do it. And we are without a pipe? ... We are a pipe!
      1. rocket757 6 February 2020 10: 45 New
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        Quote: 30143
        Believe me, they will get out. They will come up with and, most importantly, do it. And we are without a pipe? ... We are a pipe!

        Have you seriously stated this? Ha, ha ... at least some numbers, calculations, graphs, plans HAVE TO SHOW?
  10. Million 6 February 2020 07: 58 New
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    So again in Russia gas will rise in price
    1. Lamata 6 February 2020 08: 12 New
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      oh, as they pass, I suppose millerata.
  11. atalef 6 February 2020 08: 00 New
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    The “gas war” in the sphere of LNG supplies between the USA and Russia was widely discussed in the press. Options were calculated, forecasts were made, and in the end we defeated the Americans. Could resist their expansion.
    Win something won.

    Honestly, I do not quite understand what the victory is?
    I don’t say anything, and probably it’s already worth bracking out the mantra of mantra about useless shale gas and the super expensive LNG - they crashed into reality.
    LNG is a fact and a powerful competitor to the pipeline.
    Now, a vspros, developing pipelines and laying huge grandmothers in them (of course gas transportation through pipelines is a cheap business - but I add not a small additional cost to building them, operating and all other nishtyaki, that is, no one canceled the conversation about payback)
    so back to victory.
    In my understanding, LNG and pipelines are like 2 cups of scales, when one outweighs, the second automatically rises.
    They are stepping up LNG production automatically by piping gas, and as I understand it, the trend is that LNG is what will turn the payback of pipelines into such a distant prospect that the question is whether Russia buried tens of billions of dollars in pipeline policy.
    And all these flows will remain unstoppable megaprojects with zero political component.
    1. Astoria 6 February 2020 10: 48 New
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      those increasing the production of LNG, automatically hit the pipeline gas
      - which in turn again hits LNG.

      that LNG is what will turn the payback of pipelines into such a distant prospect that the question is whether Russia has buried tens of billions of dollars in pipeline policy.


      payback depends on pumped volumes; pipeline gas can compete only with pipeline gas, but not liquefied.

      Liquefaction costs between 2,5 and 4 dollars per million British thermal units. The cost of gas at Henrihub is $ 2 per million TE + the cost of a tanker. That is, at least $ 4,5 per MTE + tanker cost. In terms of recalculation per thousand cubic meters (1 MTU = 28.263682 m3, i.e. 1000mz = 35,38 MTU) 4,5 * 35,38 = + - $ 155 per 1000 m3.

      Price in Europe with delivery now + - 3,60. Novatek voiced his marginal price of 3,15.

      Gazprom trades with Germany at $ 120 per 1000 cubic meters.
    2. rocket757 6 February 2020 10: 52 New
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      Quote: atalef
      Now, a vspros, developing pipelines and laying huge grandmothers in them (of course gas transportation through pipelines is a cheap business - but I add not a small additional cost to building them, operating and all other nishtyaki, that is, no one canceled the conversation about payback)

      Do you assume that such problems do not put pressure on shale and LNG?
      It will be interesting to hear evidence thereof.
      Where there is no pipe, there is LNG out of competition, where there is a pipe, LNG gets the residual volumes, which are for objective or other reasons.
      1. atalef 6 February 2020 11: 24 New
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        Quote: rocket757
        Do you assume that such problems do not put pressure on shale and LNG?
        It will be interesting to hear evidence thereof.

        the evidence is simple and lies on the surface - namely, the price of gas and the destruction of the imaginary monopoly on gas and the assertion that Russia holds Europe for bells.
        / These evidence are voiced and you can not argue with them
        Quote: kjhg
        Those prices of $ 400−500, which we once saw, some generation after us, God forbid, will see. This pillow is gone. I think that it will come to the leadership of ministries and departments in some time, they will realize it, ”Viktor Yatsenko, deputy head of the Gazprom’s economic expertise and pricing department, said at the Russian Gas Forum 2019
        1. rocket757 6 February 2020 11: 32 New
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          Blah, blah, blah ... let's see how it really will be. "Game" for a long time.
          1. atalef 6 February 2020 11: 35 New
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            Quote: rocket757
            Blah, blah, blah ... let's see how it really will be. "Game" for a long time.

            Harness slowly, but drive fast.
            Your grandfather probably told you this proverb.
            1. rocket757 6 February 2020 11: 42 New
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              Blah, blah, by the way, applies to everyone. I also make suggestions, nothing more.
              "The game is long" ... weather, decline \ rise in industrial production and everything else that will necessarily affect the consumption of FUEL, is different ... these factors are stretched in time, in the long.
              It's simple if ...
      2. Leshy1975 6 February 2020 12: 20 New
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        Quote: rocket757
        Quote: atalef
        Now, a vspros, developing pipelines and laying huge grandmothers in them (of course gas transportation through pipelines is a cheap business - but I add not a small additional cost to building them, operating and all other nishtyaki, that is, no one canceled the conversation about payback)

        Do you assume that such problems do not put pressure on shale and LNG?
        It will be interesting to hear evidence thereof.
        Where there is no pipe, there is LNG out of competition, where there is a pipe, LNG gets the residual volumes, which are for objective or other reasons.

        The actual state of affairs suggests a different trend (source blog El-Murid):
        January gas deliveries of Gazprom to Europe through Ukraine fell three times compared to January last year and amounted to only 2,65 billion cubic meters compared to 8 billion last year. Deliveries fell both on Ukrainian transit and through the territory of Belarus via the Yamal system. On the Nord Stream-1, on the contrary, they grew slightly. Overall decline in exports to Europe in January amounted to more than 34 percent - 11,4 against 17,3 billion cubic meters.
        You can, of course, talk about a warm winter, excess gas reserves in underground storage facilities, but LNG deliveries of third suppliers to Europe, by contrast, in January increased by about a third compared to last year. The excess of January deliveries compared to last year amounted to approximately 3 billion cubic meters.
        By the way, not only Gazprom has problems, but all gas suppliers through the pipe ...
        Apparently, the structure of deliveries in favor of liquefied gas continues to change, and this is not a January story, but a long-term trend. He has a completely objective reason - Last year, European LNG reception terminals were only a quarter full, and therefore the reserve of capacities is enormous, which cannot but affect the prices and attractiveness of such supplies. In addition, the segment of spot (exchange) deliveries is growing at a significant pace with respect to long-term contracts. It is spot deliveries that create market conditions for the entire gas market, and despite the obvious problems of this type of trade (first of all, gas exchange trading fails during periods of peak consumption), this trade allows consumers dictate terms to sellers and for traditional pipe deliveries.

        hi
        1. rocket757 6 February 2020 12: 42 New
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          In general, you can see the analysis that experts on the profile give out.
          Causes, effects and consequences ... there is no pessimism. Just predicted changes in the Geyropeysky gas market, as well as many where else.
          The way forecasts are made we can accept / not accept, only time will tell who was right.
          The game is long.
          In general, what will win, the political conjuncture or economic foundations, will be interesting to look at.
        2. Astoria 6 February 2020 19: 27 New
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          I do not know who Elmurid is, there are enough masters to scribble. laughing

          The actual state of affairs suggests a different trend (source blog El-Murid):
          January gas deliveries of Gazprom to Europe through Ukraine fell three times compared to January last year and amounted to only 2,65 billion cubic meters compared to 8 billion last year. Deliveries fell both on Ukrainian transit and through the territory of Belarus via the Yamal system. On the Nord Stream-1, on the contrary, they grew slightly. In general, the decline in exports to Europe in January amounted to more than 34 percent - 11,4 against 17,3 billion cubic meters.
          You can, of course, talk about a warm winter, excess gas reserves in underground storage facilities, but LNG deliveries of third suppliers to Europe, by contrast, in January increased by about a third compared to last year. The excess of January deliveries compared to last year amounted to approximately 3 billion cubic meters.
          but the gas supplies sold to Gazprombank are not taken into account, how do you know when the indicated LNG was paid if, in fact, it was delivered only in January.

          By the way, not only Gazprom has problems, but all gas suppliers through the pipe ...
          Apparently, the structure of deliveries in favor of liquefied gas continues to change, and this is not a January story, but a long-term trend. It has a completely objective reason - last year the European LNG reception terminals were loaded only by a quarter, and therefore the reserve of capacities is enormous


          Here is a simple price chain HenryHub price $ 2 per 1 million thermal units (1000 M3 = + - 35,16 MTU) => 2 * 35.16 = + - $ 70 per 1000 m3, + minimum $ 2,5 per MTU per liquefaction ( world prices 2,5 - 4) + delivery and liquefaction. All together about 5,5 dollars per MTE.

          The price in Europe is 3,6 per MTE.

          Even LNG produced is free with the above transaction costs already more expensive than prices in Europe.

          because the reserve of capacities is colossal
          It was designed for the era of expensive gas, the reserve can be doubled - and it still will not do anything, except for increased maintenance costs.

          last year
          and the year before, and the year before laughing

          In addition, the segment of spot (exchange) deliveries is growing at a significant pace with respect to long-term contracts.
          It grows, but does not mean that it will displace. By the way, LNG supplies from the USA to the same Poland are concluded on a long-term basis. laughing

          such trade allows consumers to dictate terms to sellers and for traditional pipe deliveries.
          such a situation beats everyone, according to the Bank of America ("Gasmaggedon”) estimate - at current prices - export of LNG from the USA is economically meaningless. hi
  12. rudolff 6 February 2020 08: 35 New
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    And how do states live not producing and selling, but purchasing gas and oil? They also manage to develop. The mind is incomprehensible! Yesterday, I heard briefly on RBC that growth is only observed in the oil and gas sector, in other industries either stagnation or decline. They killed industry, now they are ready to pray for these pipes!
    1. Lamata 6 February 2020 08: 40 New
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      Industry is a lot of money, planning, specialists for a couple of years to grow up on a slurred faculty, but why do our compradors need it
    2. Stirbjorn 6 February 2020 09: 03 New
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      Quote: rudolff
      They killed industry, now they are ready to pray for these pipes!

      Well, in China, the decline in production due to coronavirus, oil is falling in price, the ruble too. That is our leaders' hope that China will quickly cope with its epidemic, otherwise the income will fall. There is only one conclusion - today we are a raw materials appendage of China, no matter how bombardment of local jingoists by local cheers
      1. rudolff 6 February 2020 09: 10 New
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        Not China. For all developed and developing. Just a raw materials appendage.
        1. Mordvin 3 6 February 2020 09: 13 New
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          Quote: rudolff
          Just a raw materials appendage.

          About this, Billy Clinton was written in a CIA report, according to Channel One.
      2. Aleksandr21 6 February 2020 09: 24 New
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        Quote: Stirbjorn
        Well, in China, the decline in production due to coronavirus, oil is falling in price, the ruble too. That is our leaders' hope that China will quickly cope with its epidemic, otherwise the income will fall. There is only one conclusion - today we are a raw materials appendage of China, no matter how bombardment of local jingoists by local cheers


        They will definitely be able to cope with the virus, only now the USA has seriously bent China with the trade agreement (which was signed on January 15, 2020), as I read a review of an article on this subject and came across interesting information:

        Prior to the outbreak of trade wars, China purchased US $ 18 billion worth of oil and gas a year. Now, China has committed to buy $ 2 billion worth of US energy in 52 years. This means that the Chinese will have to give up other suppliers, because in this amount the Chinese economy does not need oil and gas.


        And how this trade agreement (USA vs China) will affect us, in terms of energy supplies to China, the big question. If China refuses or cuts its purchases of oil / gas, it will hit our incomes very painfully. Not to mention the payback of such a project as the Power of Siberia.
        1. New Year day 6 February 2020 12: 52 New
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          Quote: Aleksandr21
          Not to mention the payback of such a project as the Power of Siberia.

          And what about the Turkish stream?
          Turkey in 2019 reduced gas purchases from Russia by 40%! Ponte-Ponte, some Ponte
          1. The comment was deleted.
      3. Lannan Shi 6 February 2020 09: 53 New
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        Quote: Stirbjorn
        There is only one conclusion - today we are a raw materials appendage of China,

        Not a raw materials appendage, but an energy superpower. Mr. Pu said so. That is, a super-appendage, translated into Russian. Be proud. Yeah.
  13. Gardamir 6 February 2020 08: 39 New
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    This is just the case when personally I have completely no patriotism. I’m on the drum whether Miller will have money or not.
    It is possible that for residents of Russia the price of gas will increase.
    Now, after all, such an ideology is such that the inhabitants of Russia should be proud that the rich are getting richer.
    1. rudolff 6 February 2020 09: 14 New
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      Definitely not a patriot! But we have been brainwashed for so many years that the problems of Gazprom are the problems of a single citizen, and you ..!
      crying
      1. Golovan Jack 6 February 2020 11: 50 New
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        Quote: rudolff
        But for so many years we have been brainwashed that the problems of Gazprom are the problems of a single citizen

        Well, in fairness - there will be no sales from Gazprom - the budget will be sour. And then everything will be sour.

        Is it really that hard? wink
  14. Ross xnumx 6 February 2020 08: 40 New
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    Let's try to draw conclusions from the situation ...
    Firstly, the oversaturation of the gas market in Europe, and indeed the world as a whole, is a reality. And this means that the price of gas will fall.
    Secondly, the low price of LNG will stop some of its production capacities, which will positively affect the pipeline gas market.
    Thirdly, completely different, apart from economic, market mechanisms will enter the “battle”. As I noted above, the cost of Russian LNG is lower than American. However, Americans have many leverage over consumers.

    Firstly, the oversaturation of the European gas market will not affect Russia's gasification and gas prices in the domestic market. GAZPROM’s attempt to compensate for the loss of the simultaneous construction of several pipelines by raising prices for Russian consumers is an objective reality.
    Secondly, the economy of the Russian Federation will be positively affected by low prices on the domestic market (to reduce the cost of domestic production) and the prudent use of natural resources (accounting, exploration of reserves and planning for their use).
    Thirdly, the author’s words about gas prices from the “evil one”:

    And it should not be a secret for you that it is precisely because of the prices that Lukashenko "raises". He doesn’t want the Republic of Belarus to pay for the headshots of Russian “effective managers”.
    1. Stirbjorn 6 February 2020 09: 00 New
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      Quote: ROSS 42
      Secondly, low prices in the domestic market will positively affect the Russian economy (to reduce the cost of domestic production costs)

      There are doubts about low prices in the domestic market, for some reason gasoline does not fall in price, but on the contrary, everything is growing
      1. Mordvin 3 6 February 2020 09: 18 New
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        Quote: Stirbjorn
        There are doubts about low prices in the domestic market, for some reason gasoline does not fall in price, but on the contrary, everything is growing

        Read the tax maneuver, all doubts will disappear.
        1. Lexus 7 February 2020 00: 43 New
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          Read the tax maneuver, all doubts will disappear.

          Yes Yes. On the ears of "persons deceived by hooligans" separate "logic" relies.
          "Oil is getting cheaper because gas is getting more expensive," painting, Vasya Lozhkin (Alexei Kudelin), A wonderful folk artist
      2. Ross xnumx 6 February 2020 09: 58 New
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        Quote: Stirbjorn
        There are doubts about low prices in the domestic market, for some reason gasoline does not fall in price, but on the contrary, everything is growing

        wassat
        Secondly, on the Russian economy low prices in the domestic market will have a positive effect (to reduce the cost of domestic production) ...

        This is not a statement of fact, but a summary (assumption). Regarding prices:
        GAZPROM's attempt to compensate for the loss of the simultaneous construction of several pipelines due to price increases for Russian consumers - an objective reality.

        hi
    2. Astoria 6 February 2020 11: 00 New
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      And it should not be a secret for you that it is precisely because of the prices that Lukashenko "raises". He doesn’t want the Republic of Belarus to pay for the headshots of Russian “effective managers”.

      1) Lukashenko’s economy could consume 10 billion cubic meters, but due to low energy efficiency it consumes 20. Is Russia also to blame for this?

      2) It is possible to switch to exchange prices with Belarus, today it’s 100, and tomorrow 200. If something doesn’t suit you, we shut off gas in the winter.

      3)
      Thirdly, the author’s words about gas prices from the “evil one”:
      Novatek announced its constant price for deliveries to Europe 3,15 (for Asia I do not know)
    3. Genry 6 February 2020 11: 36 New
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      Quote: ROSS 42
      And it should not be a secret for you that it is precisely because of the prices that Lukashenko "raises".

  15. New Year day 6 February 2020 08: 42 New
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    Our share is 20%, US 24% of total LNG supplies.

    about this, about 3 weeks ago, they kicked me a lot, claiming that "everything is captured and there are no problems."
    ... our gas companies will even have to fight to preserve already developed markets.
  16. Maks1995 6 February 2020 09: 03 New
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    And how, one year ago, the SMIM threw LNG caps over their heads !!!! Like, ravage, defeat, defeat .....

    You can’t trust anyone ...
  17. CommanderDIVA 6 February 2020 09: 07 New
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    We deliver to Europe not only pipeline but also LNG, unlike our competitors, so our positions are not so bad, we will dump prices to save consumers in Europe, possibly by analogy with shale gas
    1. Yegorchik 6 February 2020 10: 45 New
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      Quote: CommanderDIVA
      We deliver to Europe not only pipeline but also LNG,
      Is your surname Shelomov? Or Miller or Sechin? What do you have to do with gas belonging to these esteemed gentlemen?
      1. CommanderDIVA 6 February 2020 17: 58 New
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        The site was created to express their opinions, and not for scandals, to you on the show, there PR your nickname
  18. GenNick 6 February 2020 09: 14 New
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    Quote: Svarog
    Have to pull and sell it to your outback! To supply their northern cities with completely natural gas!

    Here, in order to be profitable, the outback must be endowed with money .. ZP should be in people like in Europe, and people need to propagate ... and this is very expensive and a lot of trouble ..

    ... and I like the process of reproduction. You write, which is troublesome and costly.
    Have you tried for love ?, so that for joy?
    1. Avior 6 February 2020 11: 43 New
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      .and I like the breeding process.

      the first 15 minutes are pretty good
      But then there may be problems
      including troublesome and costly smile
  19. GenNick 6 February 2020 09: 18 New
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    Quote: Gardamir
    This is just the case when personally I have completely no patriotism. I’m on the drum whether Miller will have money or not.
    It is possible that for residents of Russia the price of gas will increase.
    Now, after all, such an ideology is such that the inhabitants of Russia should be proud that the rich are getting richer.

    ,, ... Silently ... '' (Cipolino)
  20. ZaharoFF 6 February 2020 09: 26 New
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    For this war, consumers will pay in the domestic market, i.e. we are with you.
  21. Yehudi Menuhin 6 February 2020 09: 50 New
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    Serious fights should have been prepared about 5 years ago. And one more thing: the construction of "we" just touches. This is probably Mr. Staver and Gazar
  22. JonnyT 6 February 2020 10: 15 New
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    Top managers can’t see big profits, what a sadness, directly popular, like property
    They were sitting on the pipe without moving, rowing money with a shovel, and now they have realized it. Neither you nor yachts or houses in France with the kept women.
  23. 30143 6 February 2020 10: 26 New
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    It seems that gas carriers are more mobile than pipelines. To build gas carriers is one money, and pipelines are another. And if demand fell in Europe and increased in Australia? Will we also pull the pipe there? Or are we going to carry gas carriers? Definitely that gas carriers.
    Oh yes, an example is a pipe to China. They built, they built ..., and in China they took and reduced the volume of consumption due to the increase in liquefied. And how many years will this pipe fight back? fifty? Nowhere else to spend money? Probably a couple, three aviation regiments could be bought. Or build your long-haul in a series.
    So no, let's bury ... Effective managers, fuck them!
    And again, there was a gas station, but they became ... A pipe.
    It's a shame. The feeling that he returned 20 years ago.
    I apologize in advance for the incontinence.
  24. Larkis 6 February 2020 11: 15 New
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    Not my opinion, but I completely agree with him
    "So, Turkey began to refuse Russian gas, Belarus almost agreed to replace Russian oil, and" Most Ukrainians called Russia a hostile country, "and of course, only a brilliant grandmaster could realize a multi-way approach with such a final,

    worthy of the Order of Midas I degree. But those in history have happened a little before. But to achieve that "In Belarus, a" landslide "of pro-Russian sentiment was revealed," and more than a year, "is already beyond human capabilities. This is something fabulous ... "
    https://putnik1.livejournal.com/7936861.html
  25. iouris 6 February 2020 11: 53 New
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    Miller failed. Or is it as intended?
  26. honest people 6 February 2020 16: 07 New
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    Quote: Hagalaz
    In my opinion, it’s easier for them to raise domestic tariffs again and compensate for losses.

    How Gazprom came to such a life
    1. honest people 6 February 2020 16: 20 New
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      Gapromovsky idiots minus?
      1. Astoria 6 February 2020 19: 30 New
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        Let's Yuri Medovar to the heap.
  27. ser56 6 February 2020 17: 12 New
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    It turns out that the strategy for increasing gas supplies to the EU was wrong? Or are these temporary problems?
    If the first, then a very large investment in SP-2, the construction of LNG plants on the Yamal Peninsula, the port of Sabetta, nuclear icebreakers - may not be effective? request If the second - then it happens ... hi
  28. Grading 6 February 2020 17: 34 New
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    Gas prices are declining and this is not the limit! request
  29. orf
    orf 8 February 2020 22: 07 New
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    The US cannot compete with LNG with Russia simply because they simply have nothing to transport this gas to Europe. There are not so many gas carriers in the world and ALL of them are chartered for long contracts. There are no free people. American LNG producers deliver their gas only to terminals on the US coast and do not care about them further. Gazprom’s most important competitor in Europe, oddly enough, is the Russian Novatek, which carries its own LNG there. And all the stench and sanctions of AI are not even directed against Russia in the long run, but against its allies
  30. 1970mk 10 February 2020 16: 27 New
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    It’s not clear to me what does “Russia” have to do with it? Gazprom is just an AO ... which gives the state a mere penny. No? Look at the net profit of GAZPROM although in 2018 .... and how much of this profit was transferred to the budget ..