Nuclear deal with Iran: is everyone back?

Nuclear deal with Iran: is everyone back?

The unity of Europe ...



Against the backdrop of a tough confrontation between the United States and Iran, which unexpectedly quickly turned into something like a “strange war”, the atomic topic almost fell into shadow. However, almost simultaneously with the “New Year aggravation” provoked by the assassination of General K. Suleymani, positive changes occurred in this direction.

The consultations of the leaders of France and Germany with Moscow turned out to be as efficient, as constructive. And above all, it seems, precisely on the nuclear issue. And immediately after them, the quite expected statement of three European participants in the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Comprehensive Plan of Action), England, France and Germany, was voiced about the desire to make every effort to implement it.




In relations with Iran, the "reliable" US allies in NATO are not the first to refuse to go in the wake of Washington. This is especially sensitive for the Donald Trump administration right now, when it comes to the urgent need to save a literally hurt nuclear deal, signed, recall, in 2015. As you know, then the JCPOA was concluded according to the 6 + 1 scheme, and the top six, besides the USA and Russia, also included China, along with the three mentioned European countries.

In Tehran, they preferred to designate the formula as 3 + 3, sequentially “recording” Russia and China as allies, and after Germany joined, they decided to recall the formulas as little as possible. Apparently, in this case, the fact that Germany was deprived of the right to possess nuclear weapons, but it has a very strong nuclear industry, especially energy, which, however, is now very quickly collapsing.

Currently, it’s just right to talk about the 1 + 6 formula, since all signatories except the United States have clearly indicated their willingness to return, or rather, continue to adhere to the JCPOA. In Washington, however, they continue to pedal the topic of mistrust to Iran, which did not stop the Americans to envy steadily transfer rocket attacks on empty bases as a harsh response from the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Remember the election


It is clear that the election factor, which is important both for the incumbent president and his opponents, and not only from among the democrats, has long come to the fore. It is difficult to say whether the American leader could return to the atomic negotiation table for plus or minus within the United States, but the world would definitely approve of this.

Democrats in the lower house of the US Congress do not stop threatening impeachment of Donald Trump, but this terrible bugbear has long managed to turn into a kind of paper sword and is working more likely not against, but in favor of the Republican President. With this approach, when even the threat of a third world war is ready to turn into an election ace, it does not matter to any owner of the White House whether Iran has a chance to get the notorious “atomic button” in the foreseeable future.


And the announcement of the Islamic Republic of Iran as the main terrorist center does not even come to the fore. It is much more important to simply get a moral carte blanche from the loyal and not very media to prepare at least a semblance of a "Maidan" in Tehran. But thus, the American hawks, regardless of which party they are in, can kill two birds with one stone.

Firstly, to restore the reputation of a country that carries true democracy around the world, although in reality it is a question of strengthening the position of the “world gendarme”. And secondly, finally breaking the extremely precarious balance in the Near and Middle East. The fact is that political or at least moral dividends from any step towards stabilization in the region have recently managed to get almost anyone who could, starting with Russia, but not the USA.


Russian patience


It was no coincidence that Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel hastened to discuss the possibility of preserving the JCPO with the Russian president. And not only because hooking Tehran with a nuclear deal and at least trying to bring the United States back into it is probably the best chance to prevent the escalation of the conflict.

Russia, as you know, has traditionally quite successfully mediated in the region since it took over most of the foreign policy legacy of the USSR. But the Union was rarely a mediator, preferring mainly the position of an active player. However, as it turned out, the influence of an intelligent mediator can sometimes be much stronger than that of an inconsistent ally, and for some, a direct adversary.

The experience of Syria, especially the Russian experience, seems to be thoroughly studied in Tehran, especially since Iran also has to mediate a lot. In other places, it doesn’t turn out so well, although, for example, the Qatari Emirate was safely supported by Iran for many years of the most severe blockade by all other neighbors. And now it is supported.

Is it worth recalling that Russia is interested in the peaceful nature of the Iranian nuclear program, almost more than all the other participants in the JCPOA. It is precisely under the peaceful Iranian atom that numerous promising projects have been set up with the participation of Russian specialists, starting with the construction of nuclear power plants and ending with the disposal and recycling of nuclear waste.


And the fact that Iran is often not in a hurry to make payments, although they have already learned how to accelerate the implementation of a number of projects, is not too embarrassing for Russian specialists. This partner is no worse and no better than others. But it has already been repeatedly tested and almost uniquely hooked on the Russian “atomic needle”.

Top Secret Bluff


It is very characteristic that, unlike the situation two years ago, in the current difficult situation, neither the US nor Israel are pulling any atomic dossiers with evidence that Iran has already developed a plan for creating nuclear weapons. The fact that such a plan exists is simply no longer in doubt. Even exact dates are called for when Tehran can receive the long-awaited “nuclear button”. The earliest of the forecasts speaks of the end of 2021.

From an engineering point of view, both the forecasts themselves and the position taken by Washington and Tel Aviv can be regarded as nonsense. First of all, due to the fact that in any case, Iran will need considerable time to obtain the required volumes of nuclear materials.


In the few months that have passed since the United States withdrew from the JCPOA, Iran could not make such a powerful technological breakthrough. Especially taking into account the sanctions, which sharply limited the possibility of obtaining a number of necessary materials and special equipment.

The very centrifuges that are talked about so much in the context of the "nuclear deal" are by no means primitive, but rather complex structures using unique raw materials, automation, and other things that are not obtained from the air. This is especially true for the technology that is needed in the final stages of enrichment.

And there are very big doubts that Iran, by the time of the signing of the JCPOA, fully had everything necessary to complete the nuclear cycle. Obtaining, under sanctions and tight control of the IAEA, any of the most necessary so that it remains unknown to anyone, today is almost impossible.

The same secret plants that the American media insist on can hide underground, but all raw materials and energy, as well as equipment, must also be delivered there somehow. Modern technology allows us to conclude that military work is being carried out at nuclear facilities, even on indirect grounds.

But even them, as you can understand, Washington does not have. Not so long ago, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu presented a certain atomic dossier to the world, but many did not believe in it. As it turned out, they did the right thing. At the same time, it is by no means possible that Iranian nuclear scientists are simply bluffing, claiming some of their technological breakthroughs.

However, the very fact of possession of certain atomic semi-finished products, that is, for example, under-enriched uranium, should be considered dangerous. The important thing is whoever has all this in their hands. And what happened to the Ukrainian Boeing only confirms such concerns. The unprofessionalism of so many fighters of the same IRGC, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, whose special unit was led by General Kassem Suleimani, is simply scary.
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  1. Hunter 2 17 January 2020 05: 44 New
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    Here is a double feeling from the Persian Nuclear Program ... on the one hand, possession of nuclear weapons is Iran’s security, a guarantee of non-aggression primarily from the United States and Israel (which in general will strengthen the peace in the region) ... on the other hand, the appearance of another Neighbor possessing Nuclear weapons are not in Russia's interests, why do we need such a neighbor ??? today between the countries normal relations, and what will happen tomorrow is unknown.
    The Nuclear Club is not rubber, there are enough participants in it without Iran.
    Peaceful atom - helping the Persians to master, this is serious money, and plus to the Prestige of Russia.
    1. Krasnodar 17 January 2020 05: 53 New
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      Good morning!
      While in this country young men and women are arrested for joint dances, they should not have nuclear weapons
      1. Hunter 2 17 January 2020 06: 12 New
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        Good morning! There is an agreement on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. There are Countries with nuclear weapons ... Everything - The door is closed, the members of the Nuclear Club should not become larger, regardless of arrests for dancing!
        1. Krasnodar 17 January 2020 06: 13 New
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          It is truth too. Otherwise, it will provoke the appearance of the same weapons among the Saudis, Egyptians and further along this “peaceful and calm region”.
        2. Ross xnumx 17 January 2020 17: 51 New
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          Quote: Hunter 2
          There is an agreement on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. There are Countries with nuclear weapons ... Everything - The door is closed, members of the Nuclear Club should not become anymore

          Uh, how's it going? And this:
          The parties to the Treaty are 190 states. The contract was not signed India, Pakistan, Israel.
          How will we build? By ranking, or immediately start to hit the brazen red face?
          We have the UN, but Israel did not recognize its resolutions and the United States did not condemn them in this ... belay
          And claims to Iran suddenly arose, as in due time to Cuba, Iraq, Libya, the DPRK ... Maybe at first to clarify the binding international rules for all without exception?
          1. Hunter 2 17 January 2020 18: 54 New
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            A head to think? Iran between the business has a common border with Russia. Possession of nuclear weapons by Iran - It certainly will not go unnoticed in Israel and the United States. How will they react to this? I don’t want the Nuclear War at Our borders!
            The question of Israel ... it’s stupid to fight with what is already in fact. Israel is deeply indifferent to the opinion of the World Community (which incidentally is regrettable) its nuclear weapons, they will not give up. To create another Nuclear Power in the form of Iran ... is silly and dangerous, until recently, Iran regarded us as an adversary along with the United States, are you sure about the long-term warming of relations between our countries?
            NW is too dangerous to distribute and allow to create it to anyone who gets into it, too high risks.
            1. Ross xnumx 17 January 2020 19: 02 New
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              Quote: Hunter 2
              A head to think?

              Where did you get the clone hunters from? Not from ONF? What am I typing here?
              Quote: ROSS 42
              Can it first be understood that international rules are binding on all, without exception?

              I realized who is closer to you ... And closer to me is equal international law for everyone.
              1. Hunter 2 17 January 2020 21: 23 New
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                And you - Clowns ROSS 42 where did they call? You are indifferent to everything, including international law and the country in which you live. Do not strain your head, do not understand what is closer to Me. You would have to temper your mentor tone, however already wrote about it, apparently it doesn’t reach .. rEvolutionary! laughing
      2. knn54 17 January 2020 11: 16 New
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        Israel was one of the countries that stood at the cradle of the creation of nuclear energy in Iran and the application of nuclear technology in various areas of the Iranian national economy. Specialists from the Israeli nuclear centers in Dimon and Sorek worked on construction sites in accordance with the bilateral agreement, having managed to lay the foundation of the nuclear reactor in the southern Iranian city of Bushehr before the start of the Islamic Revolution in 1979 and to create a draft feasibility study for the creation of a research reactor in Isfahan ...
        From declassified documents (very recently) of the Israeli archive.
        1. Krasnodar 17 January 2020 11: 19 New
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          But Ayatollah Khomeini called the nuclear bomb non-Islamic weapons, after which the project was canceled. After the Storm in the Desert, the Persians again began to show interest in the creation of nuclear weapons, after the overthrow of Saddam they intensified their work)).
        2. asv363 17 January 2020 15: 02 New
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          Nikolay, the contract was concluded with the German company KWU, it was precisely according to her project that they managed to build 2 units, but did not have time to supply and assemble all the equipment.
        3. Ross xnumx 17 January 2020 18: 01 New
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          Quote: knn54
          Israel was one of the countries that stood at the cradle of the creation of nuclear energy in Iran and the application of nuclear technology in various areas of the Iranian national economy.

          What are you saying here? examples in the studio ...
          The Bushehr nuclear power plant (Persian نیروگاه اتمی بوشهر) is a nuclear power plant built in Iran near the city of Bushehr. The first nuclear power plant in Iran and the entire Middle East [1]. Construction began in 1975 ... Construction of a nuclear power plant southeast of the city of Bushehr was launched in 1975 by the West German concern Kraftwerk Union (German), a division of Siemens...
          On August 24, 1992, the governments of Russia and Iran signed an agreement on cooperation in the peaceful uses of atomic energy. On August 25, 1992, an agreement was concluded to continue the construction of a nuclear power plant in Bushehr.

          History is silent about Israel and its active participation ... Does France share the secrets of nuclear energy with them in the form of reactors? Or not? Have you guessed it yourself?
    2. Same lech 17 January 2020 07: 02 New
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      on the other hand, the appearance of another neighbor possessing nuclear weapons is not in Russia's interests, why do we need such a neighbor ???

      It is not Iran that is much more dangerous for us, but the United States, with its indefatigable desire to bomb everyone and everything ... Iran is just a darling against the backdrop of this hegemon.
      1. Aleksandr21 17 January 2020 09: 07 New
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        Quote: The same Lech
        It is not Iran that is much more dangerous for us, but the United States, with its indefatigable desire to bomb everyone and everything ... Iran is just a darling against the backdrop of this hegemon.


        To give nuclear weapons to everyone to protect against the United States is not an option, the risks are many times greater, these are terrorist groups of all kinds, if a nuclear bomb hits the world with such problems ... (you can recall the same ISIS), or give nuclear weapons to a country like Ukraine in 2014, what would happen if the radicals had carriers and nuclear weapons at that time? The mind to use them would be enough (against us, respectively). And so in the world there are a lot of religious / territorial conflicts, some nuclear weapons will be done and others will need to. So this is not an option.
    3. Ross xnumx 17 January 2020 17: 43 New
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      Quote: Hunter 2
      Here is a double feeling from the Persian Nuclear Program ...

      And I look here all the time:

      Iran’s position is indicated there, and as for Israel, it’s not at all ...
      There is still a nuclear DPRK ...
      And the point of foreign policy is not to live and be afraid, divining on the coffee grounds. And to compare the real affairs of countries and their chatter.
      Quote: Hunter 2
      The Nuclear Club is not rubber, there are enough participants in it without Iran.

      It is true that it is not rubber. But there are partners who do not want to register membership in it. And some even keep secret the amount of YABG ... Perhaps they would like to remain the dominant state in the Middle East.
      Sometimes it is the presence of nuclear weapons that can achieve better results than its absence.
  2. rocket757 17 January 2020 06: 57 New
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    In relations with Iran, the "reliable" US allies in NATO are not the first to refuse to go in the wake of Washington.

    Gayropeyskie politicians are not pigeons of the world, they clearly have their own interests! The new big fire in the BV is clearly not fit into these interests.
    The “house on the white hill” is there, far away, and if anything, the consequences of the conflict, if it gets to him, it’s not at all the kind that can cover the geyropu.
  3. atalef 17 January 2020 07: 09 New
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    The same secret plants that the American media insist on can hide underground, but all raw materials and energy, as well as equipment, must also be delivered there somehow. Modern technology allows us to conclude that military work is being carried out at nuclear facilities, even on indirect grounds.

    Seriously ?
    The fact that Iran had a military nuclear component is a fact.
    For her, he fell under sanctions.
    That is, the presence of deception by the Iranian authorities is not in doubt.
    After the nuclear deal, Iran did not allow inspectors to its facilities.
    This is the same fact.
    And about indirect signs - Libya practically created nuclear weapons and no one even suspected it.
  4. Aleksey Aleksandrovich 17 January 2020 08: 10 New
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    Nuclear deal, Iran can’t have nuclear weapons and so on .... But is Israel able and necessary to have nuclear weapons? Is Israel a more peaceful country than any other in the region? Or, as usual, the old song - are we kind and fluffy Jews and they all want to kill us? Right now, just the “cute and fluffy” Jews can bomb the nuclear bomb if they are impatient and go unpunished. And there should not be a sense of impunity. Need a counterweight.
    1. Edik 17 January 2020 19: 51 New
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      Alexey Alexandrovich between Israel and Iran is a big difference for everyone! And the difference is that Israel already has nuclear weapons and can answer for the bazaar yesAnd Iran can create it, and then it will also be able to answer for the bazaar, it’s no good for anyone request
      1. Aleksey Aleksandrovich 17 January 2020 20: 29 New
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        Who is this to anyone? Israel and the USA?
        1. Edik 17 January 2020 20: 31 New
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          Quote: Alexey Alexandrovich
          Who is this to anyone? Israel and the USA?

          Alexei, it’s not profitable for everyone in the world!
          You think about why the developed nuclear weapons in the United States, leaked information about the nuclear weapons of the USA USSR?
          1. Aleksey Aleksandrovich 17 January 2020 20: 35 New
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            What about Iran? Or have the Iranians, contrary to themselves, been trying to create nuclear weapons for so many years? Or do their interests not count?
            1. Edik 17 January 2020 20: 44 New
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              Quote: Alexey Alexandrovich
              What about Iran? Or have the Iranians, contrary to themselves, been trying to create nuclear weapons for so many years?

              Iran is an interested party!
              Quote: Alexey Alexandrovich
              Or do their interests not count?

              Of course !! These are their interests! And everyone who has nuclear weapons, and does not, is interested in Iran not receiving nuclear weapons!
              1. Aleksey Aleksandrovich 17 January 2020 21: 20 New
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                Whose interests are more important for Iran? Own or those who are not interested?
                1. Edik 17 January 2020 21: 51 New
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                  Quote: Alexey Alexandrovich
                  Whose interests are more important for Iran? Own or those who are not interested?

                  I don’t understand what you care about Iran’s Interests? I’m interested in the interests of Russia closer to the body! It’s in Russia's interests that Iran does not have nuclear weapons! And the United States and Israel will also repeat
  5. Soveticos 17 January 2020 09: 01 New
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    For the sake of justice, we must admit that it was the signing of an agreement on cooperation in nuclear energy and the completion of the construction of the Bushehr nuclear power plant begun by the Germans that actually saved the Russian nuclear industry from complete collapse in the very beginning of the 90s. Russia, though with difficulty, but managed to defend Iran’s legal right to a peaceful atom and prevent the inclusion of this nuclear power plant in the sanctions regime. As we know, only those countries that want to dominate others or those that want to defend themselves against such countries acquire nuclear weapons. If there weren’t the former, the latter would not have sought to get this hellish weapon. Iran was initially to blame for the fact that he dared to go against the United States and pursues an independent policy. So, if Iran even completely abandons everything that is somehow connected with the atom, they will find other reasons, such as a missile program, etc.
  6. viktor_ui 17 January 2020 12: 06 New
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    And in kegs in the photo pivasik ???