Military Review

Seeking a way out of the Idlib impasse


Recently, more and more often I read materials about the Idlib province in Syria. But our analysts love to look for a black cat in a dark room, knowing that it cannot be there. We have already agreed to the point that Russia and Syria almost threaten Turkey.

Is it really? What do official sources say about this? And how is it really?

The situation in the Idlib "serpentarium" is really twisted seriously. But not so much as to be insoluble.

What do we have in the asset? The parties, it seems, do not want to continue the war. All parties, it seems, are calling for an end to hostilities. People flee Idlib as soon as possible. All three leaders, Putin, Assad and Erdogan, are ready for a compromise.

What's in the liability? The militants who are concentrated in Idlib today are too “smeared with blood.” They understand that going out and dissolving among civilians is a difficult task. Almost impossible. Therefore, civilians are held in any way to use them as cover.

The last negotiations that took place in Moscow just, by and large, cannot be called successful. Judging by the publications of Syria, Turkey and Russia, the parties simply once again limited themselves to declarations of intent and their vision of the future of Idlib province.

In short, with strokes about the goals of the parties. How to get out of the Idlib impasse.

Syria. Free the province of Idlib from militants and establish the power of President Assad there. In principle, the Syrian government, by hook or by crook, wants to remove armed people and units of other countries from the rebellious province. The Syrians understand that they can’t do it on their own to defeat the militants in this "serpentarium". The problem is precisely the Turkish fighters.

Turkey. Erdogan has repeatedly said that the Idlib province, despite the excellent conditions for the development of agriculture, is not needed by the Turks. Like the Syrians, it is necessary to disarm the militants and establish peace. Erdogan's problem is the Kurds. The Turks would be completely satisfied with the autonomy of the Kurds within Syria, while maintaining their own influence.

Russia. In principle, the goals set by the Russian military have been fulfilled. Now businessmen are starting to work. And for a good business, peace is very important. Therefore, Russia will seek peace at any cost. 

So, all three states will now solve the problem of establishing peace - in the province of Idlib in the first place. At the same time, Turkey and Syria will make every effort to prevent the militants from leaving the "de-escalation zone".

In my opinion, there are two ways out of this impasse. The first is to organize a corridor through which militants will leave the boiler to the territory of a neighboring state. But this option is very problematic. Since it is necessary the consent of this state - Turkey. Which, you understand, is quite difficult. It is difficult already because agreeing to such a step would mean recognition of the militants as an independent political force.

The second option looks more realistic. To take time, forcing the militants to release civilians along the security corridors. Thus saving the civilian population from destruction and depriving terrorists of the opportunity to hide behind them during the offensive of the Syrian army. While the second option is being implemented to one degree or another. Slowly, but - at least, these contours are drawn.

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  1. knn54
    knn54 14 January 2020 18: 52
    The militants, basically, will no longer be able to live a peaceful life. In their understanding, the land is not rich, but hunchbacked.
    We should not discount the Yankees, who are playing into the hands of the "Idlib hotbed of tension".
  2. Paul Siebert
    Paul Siebert 14 January 2020 19: 05
    Victory is when your flag flutters over the den of the defeated enemy!
    And not when your businessmen wait for the go-ahead and rush to buy everything.
    And not when the gas-tomato ally will satisfy its ambitions.
    Our real ally is Assad and the Syrian people.
    Assad will change, and the people will forever remember who helped him to survive and win the war.
    1. Plantagenet
      Plantagenet 14 January 2020 21: 44
      "Our real ally is Assad and the Syrian people."

      “The coup in Damascus in November of the seventieth, when the military pilot Hafez Asad came to power, eliminating his predecessor Saleh Jedid in Moscow, was greeted with caution. But Assad quickly got along. The Syrians first of all asked for weapons and received them in unlimited quantities. Hafez al-Assad, perhaps better than other Arab leaders, mastered the science of receiving from the Soviet leaders everything he needed, without sacrificing anything.

      Assad frankly said: "For less than a billion I am not taking weapons from Moscow."

      Leonid Mlechin “Why did Stalin create Israel?”
      1. Glory1974
        Glory1974 15 January 2020 08: 40
        Believe Mlechin, do not respect yourself. This writer has been repeatedly caught on ignorance of the material about which he writes and on outright lies.
        1. Plantagenet
          Plantagenet 15 January 2020 21: 19
          Hafez al-Assad did not say such words? Can you quote him?
    2. Waddimm
      Waddimm 15 January 2020 07: 19
      Quote: Paul Siebert
      people will forever remember who helped him survive and win the war

      Georgians, Bulgarians and other Greeks. Where are they all with their memory?
  3. Nyrobsky
    Nyrobsky 14 January 2020 19: 48
    Things are getting even more interesting there now. In addition to the pro-Turkish, ISIS and other irreconcilable, there are a large number of militants from the category of local self-defense who fought against the SAA. Looking at the taken tempo of the offensive and realizing that sooner or later the Idlib gadyushnik will be cleaned up, these formations began to establish contacts with the SAA in order to surrender the held settlements on the condition that Russia will act as a guarantor of their security. These negotiations are already taking place without taking into account the opinion of Erdogan, and in the event of a positive decision, these units can strongly participate in the cleansing of the province, but already on the side of the CAA against yesterday's "brothers-in-arms", who, feeling that treason is going on, begin to squabble among themselves for the melting streams of weapons and finance. In general, the prospect that this problem will be resolved this year is quite realistic.
  4. Chaldon48
    Chaldon48 14 January 2020 20: 33
    The Turks of the Kurds will never be defeated by military means. The only way to peace is through peaceful sentences.