Will Russia Follow Marshal Haftar: Scenario for Libya


Russia continues to play an important role in Libya. It is not surprising that it was Moscow that was chosen as the venue for negotiations by the leaders of the warring parties - Marshal Khalifa Haftar and the head of the Government of National Accord Faiz Saraj.


In Libya, Putin and Erdogan are on the opposite side of the barricades


From midnight on January 12, Saraj and Haftar agreed to a temporary ceasefire in Libya. This decision was made under pressure from Russia and Turkey - it was Vladimir Putin and Recep Erdogan who came up with this idea at a recent meeting.

In fact, Russia's attention to the Libyan civil war is not surprising. The conflict in Libya has long outgrown national and even North African proportions. Against the background of the gradual elimination of the United States and even European countries from the Libyan problem, Russia and Turkey have become the main players, and it is their interests that have now clashed in a distant North African country.

Despite Moscow’s repeated statements that Russia does not support any of the parties to the conflict and is in favor of ending it, everyone understands that the Kremlin is betting on Khalifa Haftar. Marshal has repeatedly met with the top military leadership of Russia.

Recently, Turkey has openly stated that in Libya, Russian mercenaries from private military companies can fight on the side of Haftar. True, Vladimir Putin in response stressed that if Russian citizens are fighting in Libya, they do not represent Russia as a state and do not express its interests.

In turn, Ankara is supported by Faiz Saraj and his Government of National Accord. Moreover, it supports not only diplomatically and informationally, but also financially, and even provides military assistance. The new year 2020 began with the transfer of units of the Turkish army to Libya. They had to at least instruct the PNE troops, and as a maximum - to fight precisely against Russia-backed Haftar.

Of course, turning Turkey into a military adversary in Libya is not included in Moscow’s plans. After all, Putin and Erdogan are in good relations, they not so long ago managed to practically solve the Syrian problem, is this Libya worth it to quarrel over it again?

Why does Russia need a Libyan coast?


Russian political interests in Libya are directly related to the economic component, are its expression. After all, Libya is one of the richest oil countries in the African continent. It’s easy to get oil in Libya, and even easier to export through Libyan ports. Back in February 2017, the head of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, signed an agreement with the Libyan representatives on cooperation in oil exploration and production. But not only oil interests us in Libya.

“Africa's Gateway to the Mediterranean Sea” is what the former Jamahiriya is called in Europe and the Arab world. It would be very good for Russia to equip in Libya, for example, in Tobruk, a naval base that would allow control of the southern part of the Mediterranean Sea. Khalifa Haftar, a military man and much indebted to Russia, could very well have taken such a step.


However, for oil production, and for the construction of a naval base, one single condition is necessary - stabilization, at least relative, of this African country that has been blazing for nine years after the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi. As a military man and charismatic in terms of restoring order, Moscow trusts Marshal Haftar more than Faiz Saraj. Although Sarajah does not openly repel.

Of course, the optimal scenario for Russia in the further development of events in Libya would be the victory of Khalifa Haftar and his establishment of control over the entire territory of Libya. Moreover, the marshals are supported by the same French, who are also convinced: the military leader will quickly restore order in the country without democratic traditions, rather than politicians from the government of national accord.

But Moscow is well aware that Turkey and a number of other states will not allow Haftar to overthrow the government in Tripoli. Russia cannot openly support Haftar, since the Saraj government is kind of recognized by the UN and is considered legitimate.

Therefore, now the main task for the Russian side is to prevent the escalation of the conflict and to put opponents at the negotiating table. And then we can think, including, of creating a coalition government, in which there would be a place for both Haftar supporters and Saraj supporters.
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  1. rocket757 13 January 2020 14: 20 New
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    Why does Russia need a Libyan coast?

    is OVER fuss, advantageously ... all the more, when below kiss a tangle ... all, different, gathered.
    1. Lexus 13 January 2020 14: 24 New
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      Will Russia go for Marshal Haftar

      The paths of Gazprom are inscrutable ...
      1. rocket757 13 January 2020 14: 39 New
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        Quote: lexus
        The paths of Gazprom are inscrutable ...

        Such small "fish" do not swim there! They are "sharks" hanging out next to one tooth.
  2. Altona 13 January 2020 14: 25 New
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    Blah blah blah ... You just had to block at one time UN Security Council resolution 1973 on the "no-fly zone", which Medvedev did not do, having surrendered Gaddafi and buried $ 11 billion in investments. And today we are making "diplomatic efforts."
    1. Alex Nevs 13 January 2020 15: 59 New
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      Then (however, as now), foreign accounts saved everything where everything was obtained by excessive labor.
  3. dvina71 13 January 2020 14: 25 New
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    Despite Moscow’s repeated statements that Russia does not support any of the parties to the conflict and is in favor of ending it, everyone understands that the Kremlin is betting on Khalifa Haftar. Marshal has repeatedly met with the top military leadership of Russia.

    Who is this for everyone? And why? With the fact that Haftar promised to buy Russian weapons and will allow the construction of Russian bases?
    Can anyone give me a quote from Kozhugetovich or Gerasimov ... where is it directly spoken about the support of Haftar?
    1. Nyrobsky 13 January 2020 15: 17 New
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      Quote: dvina71
      Can anyone give me a quote from Kozhugetovich or Gerasimov ... where is it directly spoken about the support of Haftar?

      Kufugetovich did not speak directly about support for Haftar, but he indicated Russia's interest in Libya. At one time, England made a warning in the sense that - "We warn the Russian bear so that he does not put his paws in Libya," to which Kuzhugetovich answered - "What is on their coat of arms? A lion seems to be? So, not every cat a lion, which means that not every lion is given the opportunity to indicate to the Russian bear where to poke or not to poke its paws "(not literally, but something like that). hi
      1. dvina71 13 January 2020 15: 19 New
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        Quote: Nyrobsky
        that he would not stick his paws to Libya "

        So then about Libya .. but about Havtor, is there even such a thing?
        1. Nyrobsky 13 January 2020 15: 22 New
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          Quote: dvina71
          Quote: Nyrobsky
          that he would not stick his paws to Libya "

          So then about Libya .. but about Havtor, is there even such a thing?

          No, he didn’t talk about Haftar. In principle, none of our politicians spoke openly and publicly about this.
          1. dvina71 13 January 2020 15: 23 New
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            Quote: Nyrobsky
            No, he didn’t talk about Haftar. In principle, none of our politicians spoke openly and publicly about this.

            Then where does the steadily imposed opinion come from, does the Kremlin support the Havtor?
            1. Nyrobsky 13 January 2020 15: 29 New
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              Quote: dvina71
              Then where does the steadily imposed opinion come from, does the Kremlin support the Havtor?

              Nobody has canceled secret contacts and agreements, but they are, like other interested countries blowing in different directions in support of the warring parties. Perhaps only Erdogan was clearly identified on the side of Sarajah, that in case of losing it, is very short-sighted, because This will automatically turn Turkey off from the process of post-war distribution of buns. Well, if Sarajah retains power, then the Turks will be in courage.
              1. dvina71 13 January 2020 15: 31 New
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                Quote: Nyrobsky
                No one canceled secret contacts and agreements

                That is, with the help of the OBS, we can say that the Kremlin could support Haftar .. and that's it ...
                Someone gives out their Wishlist for the voice of the Kremlin .. however ..
                1. Nyrobsky 13 January 2020 15: 47 New
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                  Quote: dvina71
                  That is, with the help of the OBS, we can say that the Kremlin could support Haftar .. and that's it ...
                  Someone gives out their Wishlist for the voice of the Kremlin .. however ..

                  No, if everything was based on what “one grandmother would say”, then the GDP and Edik’s contacts on the Libyan problem would simply not be needed, but they are also aimed at preventing the interests of the Kremlin and Ankara in Libya from overlapping, in order to avoid conflict, the fact of the Kremlin’s interest is more than obvious. Well, if Ankara blows for Sarajah, then it is clear who Moscow is blowing for.
                  1. dvina71 13 January 2020 15: 49 New
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                    Quote: Nyrobsky
                    GDP and Edik on the Libyan problem would simply not be needed, but they are also aimed at ensuring that the interests of the Kremlin and Ankara in Libya do not overlap strongly in order to avoid conflict, thereby the fact of the Kremlin's interest is more than obvious.

                    And where is the Hawtor?
                    Yesterday GDP talked with Angela about Libya .. and what will the OBS say now?
                    1. Nyrobsky 13 January 2020 16: 06 New
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                      Quote: dvina71
                      And where is the Hawtor?

                      Well, if Ankara blows for Sarajah, then it is clear who Moscow is blowing for.
                      Quote: dvina71
                      Yesterday GDP talked with Angela about Libya .. and what will the OBS say now?

                      Grandma Angels, taking into account the fact that God was deprived of energy by Germany, also has his own interest in Libya. It may seem strange to you, but the victory in Libya with the participation of Turkey, we, too, seem to be on hand due to the fact that Edik will consolidate his influence in the Mediterranean and be able to interfere with the construction of a gas pipeline from Israel through Greece along the bottom of the Mediterranean Sea, bypassing Turkey , which is also in the hands of Germany, as a country securing the status of a European gas hub.
                      1. dvina71 13 January 2020 16: 08 New
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                        Quote: Nyrobsky
                        Well, if Ankara blows for Sarajah, then it is clear who Moscow is blowing for.

                        Nifiga is not clear .. although from the point of view of the OBS everything is clear ...
                      2. Nyrobsky 13 January 2020 16: 11 New
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                        Quote: dvina71
                        Nifiga is not clear ..

                        Sorry. How could he helped. winked For sim, I take my leave, it’s better than there is reason to interpret and interpret hi
                      3. dvina71 13 January 2020 16: 13 New
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                        Quote: Nyrobsky
                        For sim, I bow, it’s better to reason than I can’t

                        I don’t need to think .. I’m used to using facts ..
              2. Oquzyurd 13 January 2020 16: 24 New
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                Turkey is primarily interested in dividing the Mediterranean, and for Turkey, Libya and Saraj are the key in this matter. By the way, dividing the sea by Turkish patterns is beneficial for the Russian Federation, since a competitive gas pipe under the sea will not work without the permission of the Turks. Moreover, there are conversations that the Turks can develop these offshore fields with companies from the Russian Federation.
                Interestingly, the Turkish divide of the sea is beneficial to Egypt (receives an additional 16 thousand square kilometers) to Lebanon, Israel (also receives more land) and Libya. The only losers in this division are Greece and the Greeks of Cyprus, because Israel is also silent more, Lebanon unexpectedly leaned towards Turkey, Egypt did not take part in the agreement with the Greeks by pipe. And Italy also refused to participate in this. That is, soon if we see the establishment of relations between Israel and Turkey, and between Egypt and Turkey, do not be surprised .
                1. Nyrobsky 13 January 2020 16: 31 New
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                  Quote: Oquzyurd
                  Turkey is primarily interested in dividing the Mediterranean, and for Turkey, Libya and Saraj are the key in this matter. By the way, dividing the sea by Turkish patterns is beneficial for the Russian Federation, since a competitive gas pipe under the sea will not work without the permission of the Turks. Moreover, there are conversations that the Turks can develop these offshore fields with companies from the Russian Federation.

                  In principle, I wrote about this.
                  Quote: Nyrobsky
                  It may seem strange to you, but the victory in Libya with the participation of Turkey, we, too, seem to be on hand due to the fact that Edik will consolidate his influence in the Mediterranean and be able to interfere with the construction of a gas pipeline from Israel through Greece along the bottom of the Mediterranean Sea, bypassing Turkey ,

                  Quote: Oquzyurd
                  That is, soon if we see the establishment of relations between Israel and Turkey, and between Egypt and Turkey, do not be surprised.

                  No, the establishment of relations is definitely better than war, and besides, this provides options. We will see how there, according to the result of the Libyan disassemblies, the card will fall. It’s too early to predict somethinghi
  • Silinvv 13 January 2020 14: 29 New
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    If I am not mistaken, then Faiz Saraj are the Muslim brothers.
    1. Oquzyurd 13 January 2020 16: 27 New
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      You are mistaken. When Saraj was brought to power, at that moment intentionally, everyone was rumored to have dissolved this organization in Libya, adding that there would be secular rule in Libya.
    2. protoss 13 January 2020 21: 52 New
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      Quote: Silinvv
      If I am not mistaken, then Faiz Saraj are the Muslim brothers.

      he is one man, so he cannot be brothers, only a brother.
  • Eug
    Eug 13 January 2020 14: 42 New
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    Is Turkey worth sacrificing Russians in Libya for its interests? Are there any options for engaging not only the carrot, but also the threat of a whip in relations with Erdogan? Solitaire...
    1. Alex Nevs 13 January 2020 16: 03 New
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      Your interests Must be everywhere !! Remember this. If there are none, then their interests will then be directed at you. Or, specifically, the struggle for the homeland outside their territories. Such are the realities.
  • aybolyt678 13 January 2020 14: 46 New
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    the main thing is that there are economic dividends, for political, as time shows, are illusory
  • knn54 13 January 2020 14: 50 New
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    Confuses the age of the marshal. But "+" is enough. It's easier to negotiate with him. than with field commanders from the PNS. And Cyrenaica, well, a very tasty piece, especially since it goes into the hands.
  • svp67 13 January 2020 14: 54 New
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    For whom the city of Sirte and all the oil infrastructure around it is now, that is the real owner of Libya. And everything else is particular
    1. Nyrobsky 13 January 2020 20: 34 New
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      Quote: svp67
      For whom the city of Sirte and all the oil infrastructure around it is now, that is the real owner of Libya. And everything else is particular
      The idea is interesting. Probably now in the negotiations in Moscow in front of Saraji and Haftar, all the layouts will be laid out on the table so that they do not stupid and agree to transfer the conflict from the military stage to the political stage. Further, it will most likely be proposed to hold nationwide elections and recognize their result, regardless of which side the scales are inclined to, under the guarantee of general amnesty and other goodies for the losing side. Well, then, all the "interested" will agree among themselves on how to distribute this Libyan "pie."
  • Gardamir 13 January 2020 14: 57 New
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    Nizzya Haftara support, otherwise Erdogan will not give a tomato.
  • yuliatreb 13 January 2020 15: 03 New
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    However, both oil production and the construction of a naval base require a single condition - stabilization, at least relative,

    In this region, stability was only under Gaddafi, that’s when it was necessary to come to an agreement, to build and decide something, maybe Gaddafi remained alive, but now there’s no question of stabilization, everyone wants caustobiolites, the war is for them, someone Faiza supports someone Haftar and the one who will be better funded will win, and then the patrons will decide how to continue living.
    1. Alex Nevs 13 January 2020 16: 15 New
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      He thought that his grandmother would play the role of a keeper, and the grandmother's bodyguard would be taken away.
  • AntonR7 13 January 2020 15: 56 New
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    Forgive me my ignorance, but what does Haftar of Russia owe?
  • parusnik 13 January 2020 17: 33 New
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    And then we can think, including, of creating a coalition government, in which there would be a place for both Haftar supporters and Saraj supporters.
    .... Rather, it will be so, the more warring parties are met in Moscow ... But even if a coalition government is created, how long the dog will be damned ... Haftaru, it will be more convenient to overthrow Saraj
  • Ros 56 13 January 2020 17: 35 New
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    Why does Russia need a Libyan coast?

    And just in case, they are very much together with the Syrian base will provide control over the Mediterranean. fellow negative
  • Charik 14 January 2020 03: 45 New
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    Haftar left and did not sign a truce
  • Dmitry Zverev 14 January 2020 09: 41 New
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    I was surprised by this phrase - “Especially since the same French are also supporting the marshal, who are also convinced that the military leader will restore order in the country faster.” Where did such interesting data come from?
    The French destroyed Gaddafi in order to then support his former subordinate? Right selvuple avek plezir some.