A strange war between the US and Iran: another zilch from Trump


Today, the world is at a loss at what happened between Iran and the United States. What was it? The beginning of the great war, which for some reason the same leaders who were ready to start it were able to prevent? Demonstration of the capabilities of their own army and their place in regional politics? The mistake of analysts in US intelligence agencies who did not calculate Iran’s reaction to the provocation? Let's try to answer these questions.


History about the Boeing will be left out of brackets. I don’t want to participate in the propaganda campaign of the company. And until that moment, until conclusions are drawn about the disaster by experts on these issues, all the conversations will be nothing more than versions of the parties. The American side will blame Iranian air defense or Iranian saboteurs. The Iranian side will most likely put forward a version of the collision with UAVs, of which there really are many in the sky of Iran. The official version, meanwhile, is a technical malfunction, overheating of the engine.

So, why did Trump get involved in this adventure at all, if it was immediately clear that the United States did not have enough forces in the region for a big war. Even taking into account military bases in nearby countries. It seems to me that this is nothing more than the next step of the election campaign. Alas, Donald Trump decided to enlist the support and money of the Jewish community, ensuring the security of Israel with an agreement with a militarily powerful country like Iran.

Very briefly, literally with strokes, about the military-political situation in the region. There will be no big war. But the small one, in approximately the same form that Washington has demonstrated, will continue. Remember the statements about revenge at the “right time and right place”? Translated into ordinary language, this means "wait for the answer constantly, we have not taken revenge." In short, Iran outlined a further strategy for a “silent” war.

Syria. Alas, this stupid trick of the USA hit the American army in Syria. President Assad will gladly support Tehran. True, as I see it, a full-fledged union will not be due to the fact that this is not beneficial to us. But "silent support" will cost America the loss of American positions in Syria. Americans will slowly creep out of Syria.

Turkey. President Erdogan has repeatedly proved that he will act according to his own plan. Although Turkey is a member of NATO, but after the alliance renounced its obligations after the incident with a downed Russian plane, Ankara's hands were untied. Turks instantly close airspace for military aviation NATO if Tehran supports the invasion of the Turkish army in Libya.

Israel. Everything is complicated here. The Jewish state uses the USA as a shield. We can do anything, but if you don’t like it, contact the American army. Understanding that in the new conditions a big war threatens not only huge casualties, but also the loss of the state, Israeli politicians are seeking political guarantees of security not only in the United States, but also in Iran. I think the creation of a ghostly, but security belt near the borders of Israel at the moment will be a sufficient condition for the Israelis. At the same time, the Israeli military will continue to use the territory and airspace of other states as impudently as it is now.

Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia. All three states took a wait and see attitude. Even such a pro-Western politician as Salome Zurabishvili is prudently silent. Today, Ilham Aliyev himself dictates the conditions for negotiations on accession to the EU. Remember his words about “instructions instead of agreement,” said before the New Year. Nikol Pashinyan, most likely, will be forced to "reduce" the number of American "diplomats" in the republic. In general, this may mean that the second path for the transit supply of the American army will be blocked.

Iraq. This is where Iran has some problems. Iranians can get the American bases located in Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, the Emirates and in Saudi Arabia only through Iraq. Tehran cannot enter troops without the consent of the Iraqi government. And here Islam comes into force. Iraqi Shiites have already submitted to the parliament a bill on the withdrawal of foreign troops from Iraq. Washington has already answered this law. Today, judging by the reports of news agencies, the American troops in Iraq will be "worn out." Chasing the leaders of the Shiite police, bombing convoys and more. That is, it is entirely possible that the Iraqi parliament will pass a law requesting the introduction of Iranian troops into its territory to restore order.

In general, Trump’s gamble brought the United States about the same amount of image loss as the Americans already had after close contact with Kim Jong-un. But the main thing is not this. The main thing is that the Americans have lost the status of defender in the eyes of regional leaders. And this can only mean one thing, US influence in the region is waning.
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  1. GKS 2111 10 January 2020 08: 07 New
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    "What was it? Donald Trump decided to enlist the support and money of the Jewish community, ensuring the security of Israel with a treaty with such a militarily powerful country like Iran. "
    All this at once looked like a contractual football game, the result of which becomes obvious by the minute of the tenth to fifteenth game. Even somehow touched by the reaction on the site of many, “well, the Cuban is now the United States” or “FSE, Iran has done it” ... Immediately but it was clear that it would not come to any war — a sort of “combat” draw, where the parties parted like ships in the sea, very pleased with themselves. The USA continues to do whatever they want and where they want with impunity, Iran has shown that it is not afraid of hegemon. The grandmasters shook hands and agreed to a draw.
    1. dSK
      dSK 10 January 2020 08: 42 New
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      US President Donald Trump said that US "protect Europe from Russia", and lamented that European countries disliked him.
      / RIA Novosti05: 03; 10.01.20/XNUMX/XNUMX./
      States - ordinary rectors, impose their "roof" on everyone and collect tribute. Those who refuse are happy bully a life".
      Moscow has repeatedly stressed that Russia will never attack any of the NATO countries.
    2. Plate 10 January 2020 21: 59 New
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      I agree. In my opinion, Iran’s actual message to the Americans about the shelling of the American base is enough to assert that all this was agreed by the two parties as a presentation to the external public. You can understand why Trump needs this. But why does Iran need this?
  2. maden.usmanow 10 January 2020 08: 11 New
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    Exactly the opposite. Iran’s influence will weaken. For influence, Iran needs petrodollars. Trump's sanctions last a little over a year, and Iran is already bending. Sanctions will not be lifted after 5 or 10 years. Iran is doomed.
    The US will go to the Asia-Pacific region.
    America has become the largest oil and gas power, the Middle East is losing its former importance. The Americans have no reason to stay there.
    1. Rostislav Bely 10 January 2020 08: 21 New
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      Tradition is fresh, but Iran is ancient ... and something has not been bent, and money is wandering from state to state, now you call them petrodollars
    2. KCA
      KCA 10 January 2020 08: 26 New
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      The sanctions were introduced against Iran for the first time in 1979, since then everything has been bent, only does not want to bend, and Russia somehow bends under sanctions, but does not break, and sanctions were imposed on Russia, not even the USSR In 1918, nicho, we moved, Zadornov, it seems, but I could be mistaken, said, "All the Jews left the USSR and returned to live back to Russia, but the Jackson-Venik amendment is valid"
    3. domokl 10 January 2020 08: 36 New
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      Quote: maden.usmanow
      The US will go to the Asia-Pacific region.

      Where specifically? What is the country that has kept its attitude to the United States unchanged in this region? Especially after the skirmish with the DPRK
      1. Hunter 2 10 January 2020 08: 38 New
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        Quote: domokl
        Quote: maden.usmanow
        The US will go to the Asia-Pacific region.

        Where specifically? What is the country that has kept its attitude to the United States unchanged in this region? Especially after the skirmish with the DPRK

        Taiwan ... but they are also from hopelessness.
  3. antivirus 10 January 2020 08: 14 New
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    everything is lost, everything is lost ..
    And who is the boss?
    give money - the main slogan.
    China will take the place of the United States on the BBV, or persuade others?
  4. Rostislav Bely 10 January 2020 08: 17 New
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    Ours do not exclude the continuation of clashes between the USA and Iran (Foreign Ministry - Ryabkov)
    The question arises - if sanctions are imposed on Iraq, then a situation arises when the "petrodollars" lose control over a significant part of the funds and, as a result, the purchase of arms from Russia, China without dollars and other infrastructure projects ...
    1. 2 Level Advisor 10 January 2020 09: 37 New
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      and now they don’t buy because there is no money or because we do not sell?
  5. Loess 10 January 2020 08: 20 New
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    Alas, Donald Trump decided to enlist the support and money of the Jewish community,
    This is perhaps the most realistic explanation for what happened. I don’t believe in “agreement”. Sanctions in response to the attacked bases are serious damage to the reputation of the United States and Trump himself. And it is unlikely that "support of the Jewish community" will be able to compensate for these reputational losses. Although much here depends on how the American media will present this situation.
    As for the lack of casualties among the US military, I am also not sure.
  6. Rusfaner 10 January 2020 08: 24 New
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    "A strange war between the USA and Iran: another zilch from Trump" (c)

    More like a "zilch" from the Persians ...
  7. rocket757 10 January 2020 08: 30 New
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    Today, the world is at a loss at what happened between Iran and the United States.

    But sho, the guys are "following the protocol"! Without polites, exchanged a pair of cuffs and EVERYTHING is satisfied .... at least not stuck, yet, deeply ....
    And then we'll see, because this is clearly not the end.
  8. prodd 10 January 2020 08: 31 New
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    The Americans killed the general, the Persians decided to take revenge, during the "revenge" killed about 200 Persians and not a single American. The Americans are in shock.
  9. Fon elia 10 January 2020 08: 44 New
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    It was necessary to remove Suleymani. He disturbed everyone. Both to Americans and within the political elite of Iran. In the upcoming elections in Iran, he could be a competitor.
  10. Stirbjorn 10 January 2020 08: 50 New
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    Syria. Alas, this stupid trick of the USA hit the American army in Syria. President Assad will gladly support Tehran. True, as I see it, a full-fledged union will not be due to the fact that this is not beneficial to us.
    So he already depends on Iran directly ... if it weren’t for the Shiite "volunteers" whom Assad would bring to Iran, he could not resist. And then, why will there be no union, because "it is not profitable for us" - Syria is a Russian colony, or what ?!
    Although Turkey is a member of NATO, but after the alliance renounced its obligations after the incident with a downed Russian plane, Ankara's hands were untied.
    In the sense? What obligations were needed to fulfill? - Russia fucked up at Turkish bases, or something in return, like the Iranians now ?! Or NATO should have forced Russia to buy Turkish tomatoes, under the threat of bombing missiles wassat
  11. smaug78 10 January 2020 09: 22 New
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    Again propaganda. Something I don’t remember that Alexander Staver wrote about Putin’s zilch after the planes were shot down by the Turks and Israelis, and our people died. And then zilch suddenly ... Propaganda in the worst style in the style of the late USSR (((
    1. AU Ivanov. 10 January 2020 09: 47 New
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      Well, if you recall, soon after the downing of our Drying by the Turks, by pure chance, there was a terrorist attack in which 21 Turkish pilots died. Why is it a pilot, not a sailor or an artilleryman. Probably so the stars converged.
      1. shinobi 11 January 2020 01: 31 New
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        Very convenient chance laughing But Russia doesn’t carry out deviations, that you, no lol
  12. JonnyT 10 January 2020 09: 46 New
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    Apparently Trump did not win the election without the intervention of the Russian Federation. Let him call Putin and tearfully ask for help from the trolls, wise advice and money for the election campaign.
  13. smaug78 10 January 2020 09: 51 New
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    Quote: AU Ivanov.
    Well, if you recall, then soon after the downing

    And what happened after the downing of the Su-24 by the Turks and the death of our people? Tomatoes were banned, terrible revenge on the Turks ... And then again kisses on the gums. And here no one was hurt, and Trump tightened sanctions. And what happened after our plane was shot down by Israel, on the product the cheers-patriotics hysterical and that's all ...
  14. eagle owl 10 January 2020 09: 52 New
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    First, emphasized public coolness. He defiantly did not give a damn about all public international rules, and no one could do anything for him. Thus, an additional plus sign was drawn into political karma before the election.

    Secondly, he put the Pentagon in a position where there is nothing left for it but to start preparing the withdrawal of troops from Iraq. It is obvious that the Iranians will not secretly detonate the atomic bomb in the United States, but it is easy to turn the life of the American contingent into Iraq into hell.

    Well, and most importantly, thirdly, while everyone is enthusiastically discussing the theme of the Third World War, which is about to begin, the public and, more importantly, the media have completely forgotten about impeachment. But this is the only weapon against Trump left by the Democrats. Moreover, in the absence of sound legal arguments, opponents strongly pedaled the exclusively emotional component. It was her escalation in the Middle East that was overshadowed.

    In general, there is a lot of fun. For example, they forgot about one country, and they jumped very funny:
  15. Chingachguk 10 January 2020 09: 54 New
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    Hell, hell breaks his head belay smarter party trump! We pay one, two went to mind. Here we sing, here we do not sing, here we wrap the fish. And at this time, Putin is not good, he is testing “daggers” and putting them into service ..... He does this because he does not know how to play the most complicated, Western European parties as the president of America! what
  16. bandabas 10 January 2020 11: 35 New
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    And who will end up being a whipping boy? Guess once.
  17. smaug78 10 January 2020 19: 04 New
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    Quote: AU Ivanov.
    Well, if you recall, soon after the downing of our Drying by the Turks, by pure chance, there was a terrorist attack in which 21 Turkish pilots died. Why is it a pilot, not a sailor or an artilleryman. Probably so the stars converged.

    I love conspirators. We fix - Russia made a terrorist attack. Keep jumping laughing
  18. Radikal 10 January 2020 23: 41 New
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    Today, the world is at a loss at what happened between Iran and the United States. What was it? The beginning of the great war, which for some reason the same leaders who were ready to start it were able to prevent?
    No one was going to start either a large or a small war - simply, most likely, Israel was able to eliminate its enemy Suleymani, after which, through Trump's son-in-law, he asked the latter to cover up this attack with his "authority". Following this, Merkel arrived in Moscow on an unplanned visit, apparently at the request of Trump to clarify this situation. Well, after that, again, the Garant’s sudden flight to Syria, where he personally talked with Assad, and one can assume - with the representatives of Iran, who on the fingers explained that no war is necessary, because The Russian Federation will not support this event. Well, and as a climax - the Iranian missile strike "retaliation." lol Purely symbolic. Everyone is happy. wassat
  19. shinobi 11 January 2020 01: 36 New
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    Well, the general’s merged theirs, it’s understandable. Because the answer is modest and civilized. But here’s how we’ll end the multi-entry route.
  20. Eroma 11 January 2020 10: 42 New
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    The United States eliminates people capable of achieving something! Zakharchenko was killed in the Donbas, now there is no prominent leader in Iran who is capable of influencing the situation outside Iran, which Iran will now be able to do, is not known. A missile strike does not compensate for the loss of such a person, but perhaps the United States demonstrates that there are such generals in Iran.
    In general, the United States simply kills people and reports this to the whole world that they can kill anyone! And the world stuck his tongue in ...
  21. Oleg Zorin 12 January 2020 17: 02 New
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    Good article. Most importantly, she looks even more convincing if you read her a week later. When you already know that the Iranian air defense shot down the plane, that the Yankees knew about the missile attack in advance and successfully went wrong, that more than fifty people trampled at the Suleymani funeral, that almost 2 hundred Persians stole on the plane ... In a word, “look at the tabolo” as one comedian said.