Military Review

A strange war between the US and Iran: another zilch from Trump

30

Today the world is in some bewilderment about what happened between Iran and the United States. What was it? The beginning of a big war, which for some reason was prevented by the same leaders who were ready to start it? Demonstration of the capabilities of your own army and your place in regional politics? Is it a mistake of analysts in the US intelligence services, who did not calculate Iran's reaction to the provocation? Let's try to answer these questions.


History Let's leave the Boeing out of brackets. I don't want to participate in a propaganda campaign. And until the conclusions about the catastrophe are drawn by experts on these issues, all conversations will be nothing more than versions of the parties. The American side will blame the Iranian air defense or Iranian saboteurs. The Iranian side will most likely put forward a version of a collision with a UAV, of which there are really many in the sky of Iran now. The official version, meanwhile, is a technical malfunction, engine overheating.

So, why did Trump get involved in this adventure at all, if it was immediately clear that the US in the region would not have enough forces for a big war. Even taking into account military bases in nearby countries. It seems to me that this is nothing more than another step of the election campaign. Alas, Donald Trump decided to enlist the support and money of the Jewish community, ensuring the security of Israel with an agreement with such a militarily powerful country like Iran. 

Very briefly, literally with strokes, about the military-political situation in the region. There will be no big war. But the small one, in approximately the same form that Washington has demonstrated, will continue. Remember the statements about revenge at the “right time and right place”? Translated into ordinary language, this means "wait for the answer constantly, we have not taken revenge." In short, Iran outlined a further strategy for a “silent” war.

Syria. Alas, this stupid trick of the USA hit the American army in Syria. President Assad will gladly support Tehran. True, as I see it, a full-fledged union will not be due to the fact that this is not beneficial to us. But "silent support" will cost America the loss of American positions in Syria. Americans will slowly creep out of Syria.

Turkey. President Erdogan has repeatedly proved that he will act according to his own plan. Although Turkey is a member of NATO, but after the alliance renounced its obligations after the incident with a downed Russian plane, Ankara's hands were untied. Turks instantly close airspace for military aviation NATO if Tehran supports the invasion of the Turkish army in Libya. 

Israel. Everything is complicated here. The Jewish state uses the USA as a shield. We can do anything, but if you don’t like it, contact the American army. Understanding that in the new conditions a big war threatens not only huge casualties, but also the loss of the state, Israeli politicians are seeking political guarantees of security not only in the United States, but also in Iran. I think the creation of a ghostly, but security belt near the borders of Israel at the moment will be a sufficient condition for the Israelis. At the same time, the Israeli military will continue to use the territory and airspace of other states as impudently as it is now.

Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia. All three states took a wait and see attitude. Even a pro-Western politician like Salome Zurabishvili is prudently silent. Ilham Aliyev himself today dictates the conditions for negotiations on joining the EU. Remember his words about “instructions instead of agreements” before the New Year. Nikol Pashinyan, most likely, will have to "cut" the number of American "diplomats" in the republic. In general, this may mean that the second route for the transit supply of the American army will be blocked.

Iraq. This is where Iran has some problems. Iranians can get the American bases located in Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, the Emirates and in Saudi Arabia only through Iraq. Tehran cannot enter troops without the consent of the Iraqi government. And here Islam comes into force. Iraqi Shiites have already submitted to the parliament a bill on the withdrawal of foreign troops from Iraq. Washington has already answered this law. Today, judging by the reports of news agencies, the American troops in Iraq will be "worn out." Chasing the leaders of the Shiite police, bombing convoys and more. That is, it is entirely possible that the Iraqi parliament will pass a law requesting the introduction of Iranian troops into its territory to restore order.

In general, Trump's gamble brought about the same amount of image losses to the United States as the Americans already had after close communication with Kim Jong-un. But this is not the main thing. The main thing is that the Americans have lost the status of protector in the eyes of regional leaders. And this can only mean one thing, the US influence in the region is fading away.
Author:
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  1. GKS 2111
    GKS 2111 10 January 2020 08: 07
    +7
    "What was it? Donald Trump decided to enlist the support and money of the Jewish community, ensuring the security of Israel with a treaty with such a militarily powerful country like Iran."
    All this immediately looked like a contractual football match, the result of which becomes obvious by the minute to the tenth or fifteenth game. Even the reaction on the website of many was somehow touched - "well, everything, now the United States is a US citizen" or "FSE, Iran has gotten overboard" ... Immediately It was clear that it would not come to any war, a sort of "combat" draw, where the sides would disperse like ships at sea, very pleased with themselves. The USA continues to do whatever they want and where they want with practically impunity, Iran has shown that it is not afraid of the hegemon. The grandmasters shook hands and agreed to a draw.
    1. dSK
      dSK 10 January 2020 08: 42
      +1

      US President Donald Trump said that US "defending Europe from Russia", and lamented that European countries disliked him.
      / RIA Novosti05: 03; 10.01.20/XNUMX/XNUMX./
      The States are ordinary reciters, they impose their "roof" on everyone and collect tribute. Those who refuse are satisfied with the "funny bully a life".
      Moscow has repeatedly stressed that Russia will never attack any of the NATO countries.
    2. Plate
      Plate 10 January 2020 21: 59
      +2
      I agree. In my opinion, Iran’s actual message to the Americans about the shelling of the American base is enough to assert that all this was agreed by the two parties as a presentation to the external public. You can understand why Trump needs this. But why does Iran need this?
  2. maden.usmanow
    maden.usmanow 10 January 2020 08: 11
    -10
    Exactly the opposite. Iran’s influence will weaken. For influence, Iran needs petrodollars. Trump's sanctions last a little over a year, and Iran is already bending. Sanctions will not be lifted after 5 or 10 years. Iran is doomed.
    The US will go to the Asia-Pacific region.
    America has become the largest oil and gas power, the Middle East is losing its former importance. The Americans have no reason to stay there.
    1. Rostislav Bely
      Rostislav Bely 10 January 2020 08: 21
      +3
      Tradition is fresh, but Iran is ancient ... and something has not been bent, and money is wandering from state to state, now you call them petrodollars
    2. KCA
      KCA 10 January 2020 08: 26
      +12
      Sanctions against Iran imposed mattresses for the first time in 1979, Iran has been bent since then, only it does not want to bend, and Russia somehow all bends under sanctions, but does not break, and against Russia, not even the USSR, sanctions were imposed in In 1918, nicho, perebdeli, Zadornov, it seems, but I could be mistaken, said "All the Jews have already left the USSR and returned to live back in Russia, but the Jackson-Venik amendment is valid"
    3. domokl
      10 January 2020 08: 36
      +7
      Quote: maden.usmanow
      The US will go to the Asia-Pacific region.

      Where specifically? What is the country that has kept its attitude to the United States unchanged in this region? Especially after the skirmish with the DPRK
      1. Hunter 2
        Hunter 2 10 January 2020 08: 38
        +5
        Quote: domokl
        Quote: maden.usmanow
        The US will go to the Asia-Pacific region.

        Where specifically? What is the country that has kept its attitude to the United States unchanged in this region? Especially after the skirmish with the DPRK

        Taiwan ... but they are also from hopelessness.
  3. antivirus
    antivirus 10 January 2020 08: 14
    +1
    everything is lost, everything is lost ..
    And who is the boss?
    give money - the main slogan.
    China will take the place of the United States on the BBV, or persuade others?
  4. Rostislav Bely
    Rostislav Bely 10 January 2020 08: 17
    +2
    Ours do not exclude the continuation of clashes between the USA and Iran (Foreign Ministry - Ryabkov)
    The question arises - if sanctions are imposed on Iraq, then a situation arises when the "petrodollars" will lose control over a significant part of the funds and, as a result, the purchase of weapons from Russia, China outside the dollars and other infrastructure projects ...
    1. 2 Level Advisor
      2 Level Advisor 10 January 2020 09: 37
      -2
      and now they don’t buy because there is no money or because we do not sell?
  5. Loess
    Loess 10 January 2020 08: 20
    +2
    Alas, Donald Trump decided to enlist the support and money of the Jewish community,
    This is perhaps the most realistic explanation for what happened. I don’t believe in the agreement. Sanctions in response to the attacked bases are serious damage to the reputation of the United States and Trump himself. And it is unlikely that the "support of the Jewish community" will be able to compensate for these reputational losses. Although a lot here depends on how the American media will present this situation.
    As for the lack of casualties among the US military, I am also not sure.
  6. Rusfaner
    Rusfaner 10 January 2020 08: 24
    +4
    "Strange war between the United States and Iran: another zip from Trump" (c)

    More like "zilch" from the Persians ...
  7. rocket757
    rocket757 10 January 2020 08: 30
    +1
    Today, the world is at a loss at what happened between Iran and the United States.

    And sho, guys "observe protocol"! Without politeses, we exchanged a couple of cuffs and EVERYTHING is happy ... at least not stuck, yet, deep ...
    And then we'll see, because this is clearly not the end.
  8. prodd
    prodd 10 January 2020 08: 31
    0
    The Americans killed the general, the Persians decided to take revenge, during the "revenge" about 200 Persians and not a single American were killed. Americans are shocked.
  9. Fon elia
    Fon elia 10 January 2020 08: 44
    +1
    It was necessary to remove Suleymani. He disturbed everyone. Both to Americans and within the political elite of Iran. In the upcoming elections in Iran, he could be a competitor.
  10. Stirbjorn
    Stirbjorn 10 January 2020 08: 50
    0
    Syria. Alas, this stupid trick of the USA hit the American army in Syria. President Assad will gladly support Tehran. True, as I see it, a full-fledged union will not be due to the fact that this is not beneficial to us.
    So he already depends on Iran directly ... if not for the Shiite "volunteers" whom Iran had brought with Assad would not have resisted. And then, why won't there be a union, because "it is not beneficial for us" - Syria is a Russian colony, or what ?!
    Although Turkey is a member of NATO, but after the alliance renounced its obligations after the incident with a downed Russian plane, Ankara's hands were untied.
    In the sense? What obligations were needed to fulfill? - Russia fucked up at Turkish bases, or something in return, like the Iranians now ?! Or NATO should have forced Russia to buy Turkish tomatoes, under the threat of bombing missiles wassat
  11. smaug78
    smaug78 10 January 2020 09: 22
    0
    Again propaganda. Something I don’t remember that Alexander Staver wrote about Putin’s zilch after the planes were shot down by the Turks and Israelis, and our people died. And then zilch suddenly ... Propaganda in the worst style in the style of the late USSR (((
    1. AU Ivanov.
      AU Ivanov. 10 January 2020 09: 47
      +1
      Well, if you recall, soon after the downing of our Drying by the Turks, by pure chance, there was a terrorist attack in which 21 Turkish pilots died. Why is it a pilot, not a sailor or an artilleryman. Probably so the stars converged.
      1. shinobi
        shinobi 11 January 2020 01: 31
        +1
        Very convenient chance laughing But Russia doesn’t carry out deviations, that you, no lol
  12. JonnyT
    JonnyT 10 January 2020 09: 46
    0
    Apparently Trump did not win the election without the intervention of the Russian Federation. Let him call Putin and tearfully ask for help from the trolls, wise advice and money for the election campaign.
  13. smaug78
    smaug78 10 January 2020 09: 51
    -2
    Quote: AU Ivanov.
    Well, if you recall, then soon after the downing

    And what happened after the downing of the Su-24 by the Turks and the death of our people? Tomatoes were banned, terrible revenge on the Turks ... And then again kisses on the gums. And here no one was hurt, and Trump tightened sanctions. And what happened after our plane was shot down by Israel, on the product the cheers-patriotics hysterical and that's all ...
  14. eagle owl
    eagle owl 10 January 2020 09: 52
    0
    First, emphasized public coolness. He defiantly did not give a damn about all public international rules, and no one could do anything for him. Thus, an additional plus sign was drawn into political karma before the election.

    Secondly, he put the Pentagon in a position where there is nothing left for it but to start preparing the withdrawal of troops from Iraq. It is obvious that the Iranians will not secretly detonate the atomic bomb in the United States, but it is easy to turn the life of the American contingent into Iraq into hell.

    Well, and most importantly, thirdly, while everyone is enthusiastically discussing the theme of the Third World War, which is about to begin, the public and, more importantly, the media have completely forgotten about impeachment. But this is the only weapon against Trump left by the Democrats. Moreover, in the absence of sound legal arguments, opponents strongly pedaled the exclusively emotional component. It was her escalation in the Middle East that was overshadowed.

    In general, there is a lot of fun. For example, they forgot about one country, and they jumped very funny:
  15. Chingachguk
    Chingachguk 10 January 2020 09: 54
    -1
    Hell, hell breaks his head belay the smartest Trump party! We pay one, two come to mind. We eat here, we don't eat here, we wrap the fish here. And at this time, a bad Putin, tests "daggers" and puts them into service ..... This he does because he does not know how to play the most complicated Western European parties as the president of America! what
  16. bandabas
    bandabas 10 January 2020 11: 35
    0
    And who will be the "whipping boy" as a result? Guess it at once.
  17. smaug78
    smaug78 10 January 2020 19: 04
    0
    Quote: AU Ivanov.
    Well, if you recall, soon after the downing of our Drying by the Turks, by pure chance, there was a terrorist attack in which 21 Turkish pilots died. Why is it a pilot, not a sailor or an artilleryman. Probably so the stars converged.

    I love conspirators. We fix - Russia made a terrorist attack. Keep jumping laughing
  18. Radikal
    Radikal 10 January 2020 23: 41
    +2
    Today, the world is at a loss at what happened between Iran and the United States. What was it? The beginning of the great war, which for some reason the same leaders who were ready to start it were able to prevent?
    No one was going to start either a big or a small war - it is just that Israel most likely managed to eliminate its enemy Suleimani, after which, through Trump's son-in-law, asked the latter to cover up this terrorist act with his "authority". Following this, Merkel rolled to Moscow on an unscheduled visit, apparently at Trump's request to clarify this situation. Well, after that, again, a sudden flight of the Guarantor to Syria, where he personally talked with Assad, and one can assume - with representatives of Iran, to whom he explained on his fingers that no war is needed, since RF will not support this event. Well, as the culmination - the Iranian "retaliation" missile strike. lol Purely symbolic. Everyone is happy. wassat
  19. shinobi
    shinobi 11 January 2020 01: 36
    0
    Well, the general’s merged theirs, it’s understandable. Because the answer is modest and civilized. But here’s how we’ll end the multi-entry route.
  20. Eroma
    Eroma 11 January 2020 10: 42
    -1
    The United States eliminates people capable of achieving something! Zakharchenko was killed in the Donbas, now there is no prominent leader in Iran who is capable of influencing the situation outside Iran, which Iran will now be able to do, is not known. A missile strike does not compensate for the loss of such a person, but perhaps the United States demonstrates that there are such generals in Iran.
    In general, the United States simply kills people and reports this to the whole world that they can kill anyone! And the world stuck his tongue in ...
  21. Oleg Zorin
    Oleg Zorin 12 January 2020 17: 02
    -1
    Good article. Most importantly, it looks even more convincing if you read it a week later. When you already know that the plane was shot down by Iranian air defenses, that the Yankees knew about the missile attack in advance and successfully fumbled, that more than fifty people trampled on Suleimani's funeral, that almost 2 hundred Persians were trampled on the plane ... In a word, "look at the tabolo" as one humorist used to say.