Military Review

“There will be no hot war”: After Trump’s speech about Iran, China breathed a sigh of relief

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One of the countries where frankly breathed a sigh of relief after yesterday’s speech by US President Donald Trump was China. Recall that Trump in the course of his speech declared in fact about his unwillingness to aggravate the conflict and about the refusal of a new use of force against Iran. According to Trump, Washington will focus on sanctions that will be "as severe as possible."


But why exactly in China did they accept Trump's statement with great enthusiasm?



The fact is that China was and continues to be among the countries that ignore the US sanctions regime against Iran. Beijing continues to import significant amounts of Iranian oil, ignoring US efforts to block such traffic. A significant part of the oil produced in Iran is bought by China (China is the first importer). Prior to the next imposition of sanctions by the Americans, the volume of supplies of "black gold" by sea from Iranian ports to the PRC amounted to about 630 thousand barrels per day (out of 1,7 million barrels of oil exported by Iran).

Against the backdrop of the US-Iranian exacerbation, oil prices soared for the first time in several months above $ 70 per barrel. If Trump had not made his "pacifying" speech, then, experts suggest, a barrel by the end of this week could have reached $ 80. Not only that, if the United States decided to strike at the very 52 Iranian facilities that Trump spoke about, the world oil market would have come to a state of complete shock. This would mean a virtual cessation of Iranian exports, including exports to China. The Chinese economy would have to look for alternative sources of "black gold", but against the backdrop of rising prices and military-political escalation in the Middle East, this would be problematic.

In China itself, experts suggested that an American strike on Iran could ultimately cost the PRC 1,5-2% of GDP (taking into account the decline in the competitiveness of Chinese products), and in the short term. For a longer perspective, they did not dare to give forecasts.

Today, there are reports on Chinese TV that express satisfaction with Trump’s decision. By this, China makes it clear that Beijing has long been accustomed to American sanctions against the same Iran, having managed to adapt, but the military conflict between Washington and Tehran could have dealt a powerful blow to the Chinese economy.

In China, it is noted that there will be no “hot” war between the United States and Iran, but a cold war can manifest itself. But China, experts say, is ready for it.
26 comments
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  1. 1976AG
    1976AG 9 January 2020 10: 35
    +12
    Sooner to calm down. Believe the words of Trump - do not respect yourself. Now it turns out that dozens of US troops died from Iran’s attacks and it will be necessary to create the appearance of revenge for them .. But the Americans do not know how to act accurately, so it will again be like an elephant in a china shop. So wait and see.
    1. cost
      cost 9 January 2020 10: 45
      +4
      For years, China has been considering Iran as its protégé and its “launching pad” in the Middle East, ”Maslov explains. Large commodity circulation and oil supplies have been established between the countries. At the same time, China provides significant support in developing the military potential of Iran and is one of the three leaders in the supply of weapons for Iran. Thus, the PRC provides itself with military support in the Middle East.
      And here is the opinion of the Chinese news agency Xinhua":
      Military cooperation between China and Iran is keeping the United States in suspense. As a reminder, in December 2019, Russia, China and Iran held joint naval exercises in the Indian Ocean and the Ottoman Gulf. They were directed against the presence of US forces there. It was reported that the American special services planned to interfere with the exercises, but their attempts were stopped in time. “So the Iranian events are not an attack on Iran. This is an attempt to prevent the formation of a new China-Iran military alliance, with the participation and interests of Russia. "
    2. Chaldon48
      Chaldon48 9 January 2020 10: 47
      +1
      To get into a full-scale means to suffer big losses, and Trump is positioning himself as a parent of well-being of the United States.
      1. Lelek
        Lelek 9 January 2020 16: 51
        0
        Quote: Chaldon48
        To get into a full-scale means to suffer big losses, and Trump is positioning himself as a parent of well-being of the United States.

        hi
        Not yet evening. Although the United States, through the mouth of Mark Esper (and not the head of the White House), announced a "background" in the latest conflict with Iran,

        nevertheless, they hastened to withdraw their "boxes" from the Strait of Hormuz, which may be a harbinger of another attack on Iran.

        However, let's wait and see how it all ends. Russia has offered Iran its means of defense in any case, but there is no answer yet.
        1. Chaldon48
          Chaldon48 9 January 2020 18: 10
          0
          Well, yes, they killed an uncomfortable man, and in order not to get a serious answer, they started talking about peace, realizing that Iran was not ready for a big war. It’s all the same that a pumped-up ambal broke his ribs, and then he began to assure that he had nothing in view of the terrible, there was not a big skirmish.
    3. Aleksandr21
      Aleksandr21 9 January 2020 10: 50
      +1
      Quote: 1976AG
      Sooner to calm down. Believe Trump's words - do not respect yourself ....


      Not until now Trump:

      "On December 18, 2019, the US House of Representatives held the final impeachment debate against US President Donald Trump

      At the end of the meeting, the first article of charges against the president was approved ("abuse of power. Voting result: 230 votes in favor, 197 - against, one abstained. Thus, the head of state was impeached. After that, the congressmen approved the second article of charges (" obstruction of Congress ") ; the result of voting - 229 votes in favor, 198 - against, with one abstention "

      In January, Senate hearings should be held on impeachment Trump, so he has enough worries.
      1. 1976AG
        1976AG 9 January 2020 10: 51
        +2
        He wanted to sneeze on this mouse fuss.
      2. 2 Level Advisor
        2 Level Advisor 9 January 2020 11: 34
        +2
        Well, the whole nuance is that the majority of the Democrats in the House of Representatives and they are against Trump, while in the Senate there are the majority of Republicans and they have already indicated that there will be no support against "their own" .. So, in principle, he doesn't care about these movements ..
      3. bk316
        bk316 9 January 2020 11: 37
        +3
        Thus, the head of state was impeached.

        DECLARED AND NOT ANNOUNCED,
        there is no chance of being approved by the Senate. It takes 2/3 of the vote in the Republican Senate, and the Democrats could not get 2/3 even in Congress.
  2. evgenii67
    evgenii67 9 January 2020 10: 42
    +1
    Trump businessman! And for sure someone on this hype has risen!
    1. bessmertniy
      bessmertniy 9 January 2020 10: 54
      0
      Of course, Trump calculated whether the war would be beneficial to the United States. This time, it turned out to be unprofitable, since the economies of China and the United States today are strongly connected, and the result could be a drop in GDP of both countries.
      1. 1976AG
        1976AG 9 January 2020 10: 57
        +3
        Quote: bessmertniy
        Of course, Trump calculated whether the war would be beneficial to the United States. This time, it turned out to be unprofitable, since the economies of China and the United States today are strongly connected, and the result could be a drop in GDP of both countries.

        It was necessary to count BEFORE the threats of striking Iran’s targets. And then the US doesn’t attack China
        1. bessmertniy
          bessmertniy 9 January 2020 11: 09
          0
          If the US attacks not China, but it affects China, then the negative result should reach the US economy along the "food chain". This is the principle of the Bradbury butterfly, when it is enough to crush it somewhere in the past, and the whole world will change in the future.
          1. Chaldon48
            Chaldon48 10 January 2020 04: 07
            0
            You never know how great brains perish in wars and from various accidents, the world continues to evolve, but no one can yet predict when and how this development will end.
  3. Loess
    Loess 9 January 2020 10: 43
    +5
    China notes that there will be no "hot" war between the United States and Iran, but a cold one can manifest itself.
    And in recent months I have developed a stable impression that the United States needs a pretext for a "hot" war. And Israel's provocations against Iranian representatives in Syria hint that Israel is most interested in the armed conflict between the United States and Iran.
    1. bessmertniy
      bessmertniy 9 January 2020 10: 59
      0
      There are many people interested in this war, but American politicians cannot afford to send American soldiers to fight for other people's interests.
      1. Loess
        Loess 9 January 2020 11: 05
        0
        Quote: bessmertniy
        but send American soldiers to fight for the interests of others

        There and the Americans have more interests than just a lot. Another thing is that perhaps there was ... a reassessment of the possible losses and the general situation in the region as a whole, and against the background of this reassessment, the states played back.
    2. habaroff.ven
      habaroff.ven 9 January 2020 12: 39
      -2
      This is because in Israel, when thinking about Iran’s nuclear weapons, one biblical place shrinks more than everyone.
  4. Mavrikiy
    Mavrikiy 9 January 2020 10: 47
    +1
    “There will be no hot war”: After Trump’s speech about Iran, China breathed a sigh of relief
    On the one hand, Trump does not need a war; elections are ahead; on the other, how does Trump strangle little, little China? This is probably better than blocking the seaways of China, risking aircraft carriers and strategists.
  5. Terenin
    Terenin 9 January 2020 10: 59
    +7
    After Trump's talk about Iran, China breathed a sigh of relief

    Yes, it’s hard to breathe fully in full * opera crying
  6. Qwertyarion
    Qwertyarion 9 January 2020 11: 11
    +1
    . breathed a sigh of relief after yesterday’s speech by US President Donald Trump,

    Performances and actions of Trump are associated with a monkey playing a combat grenade.
    Someone someday will not appreciate the stupid style of Trump’s political game and really answer ...
    1. maden.usmanow
      maden.usmanow 9 January 2020 11: 31
      +1
      Somebody ever


      Iran has lost the most important person in foreign policy.
      Very dumb Trump style, I agree
      1. Qwertyarion
        Qwertyarion 9 January 2020 11: 37
        +2
        . Very dumb Trump style, I agree

        The world is changing and not for the better for the United States.
  7. knn54
    knn54 9 January 2020 12: 11
    -1
    We will wait until the elections, if the "third force" does not intervene.
  8. Wolf
    Wolf 9 January 2020 13: 16
    0
    In China itself, experts suggested that an American strike on Iran could ultimately cost the PRC 1,5-2% of GDP (taking into account the decline in the competitiveness of Chinese products), and in the short term. For a longer perspective, they did not dare to give forecasts.



    At the end of the United States, force China to defend its interests by military means. The loss of 2% of GDP is a big blow to the economy, and China cannot allow their economy to depend on an old, sick reckless state that cannot understand that its time has gone down in history. It’s just that the development of mankind has come to the conclusion that a state like the USA with its outdated views on the world and behavior on the world stage is neither needed by the world nor humanity. Time has passed for a state like the USA! If the US does not realize this in the near future they will lead the world to World War 3 and global cataclysms. But is it strange that the scientific community in the world is not talking about this?
  9. Grandfather-Shchukar
    Grandfather-Shchukar 9 January 2020 17: 09
    -2
    The United States and Israel will not hinder this matter .. Let them not hope!
    Five million Iranian men said goodbye to the general and rocket salute in his honor was given at the base of the us ..
    But China is trying in vain to sit out ..