Today, the media in the European and European countries widely discuss the decision of the three states to strike Russian Gazprom with its own gas pipeline. We are talking about the joint construction by Israel, Cyprus and Greece of the EastMed gas pipeline, which is supposed to deliver gas to Europe from two fields: the Israeli Leviathan and the Cyprus Aphrodite. Can the appearance of this submarine gas pipeline really harm the Turkish Stream Russian-Turkish gas pipeline somehow?
Where did the new deposits come from? "Leviathan" was opened in 2010. According to geologists, there are 453 billion cubic meters of recoverable gas there. m .. Agree, for Gazprom this is not a competitor. At best, this gas can provide 40–50 years of gas consumption in Israel. True, there is another field found in 2009 - Tamar. But there is even less recoverable gas - about 307 billion cubic meters. m. Cyprus Aphrodite "younger." Discovered in 2011. But as befits a "lady", she is smaller than a "sea monster." A total of 170 billion cubic meters. m
So, the total volume of gas that can be produced from two fields, as planned according to the signed agreement, is 620-630 billion cubic meters. If Europe needs about 460 billion cubic meters. m. (in 2018) is not even a minuscule. This is zilch. Gazprom annually exports to Europe up to 200 billion cubic meters of gas.
Now about the gas pipeline itself. The depths at the gas production site are 1500-2500 meters. This greatly complicates gas production. And the length of the gas pipeline itself is, naturally, taking into account that you have to bypass the economic zone of Turkey, which will not give a building permit, about 1900 km. For comparison, SP-2 is 1200 km.
We add here the depths along which it is necessary to lay pipes. The depth of the Mediterranean Sea along the EastMed route reaches 3000 meters. The cost of work at such depths is increasing. According to Israeli experts, the total cost of the EastMed gas pipeline will be at least $ 7 billion. Compare with the SP-2. The length of the pipeline is 1200 km, the depth of the pipe is from 50 to 250 meters. The cost of 9,8 billion. $. The difference in the cost of gas pipelines is explained by the fact that EastMed was originally designed as a political project. The EU has even allocated about $ 39 million for design.
There is another indicator that must be mentioned. This is the expected capacity of the pipeline. The planned capacity of EastMed is 15 billion cubic meters. However, according to independent experts, squeezing more than 10 billion from Leviathan and Aphrodite is simply impossible. That is, at a comparable cost, gas from the Israeli gas pipeline will cost more.
Conclusion? In an effort to oust Gazprom from the southern European gas market, the EU and the US are playing on the side of the Russian gas giant. The created Energy Triangle of Greece, Cyprus and Israel cannot actually compete with Gazprom. However, its creation pushes Asian gas producers to closer contacts with the Russian concern.
For the countries of Central Asia and Azerbaijan, there are simply no other ways to deliver their own gas to the EU, except for the TANAR (bypassing Russia) and two Russian gas pipelines - the Blue Stream and the Turkish Stream. In addition, the Energy Triangle forces Turkey to work more closely with Russia.