Military Review

A trap named Euro. About a possible European confrontation

26
The crisis of European integration seems to be reaching its apogee. And what next? Will Brussels decide to publicly declare the collapse of the integration process, and to put a big cross on such a concept as the Eurozone?

Of course, such a sharp step from European politicians can serve as a funeral march in general for the entire world economy. The announcement that a currency such as the euro is actually dead, and disconnecting it from the apparatus, let's say artificial respiration, will lead to tectonic shifts far from an economic plan. Such an announcement will unambiguously be followed by sociopolitical changes, which, by their tragedy, may well recall the situation when Europe was almost completely in ruins. Now these ruins may be imaginative, but this does not detract from their negative role for the entire world economic and political system. Yes, and from the image to its real embodiment, it is sometimes very, very close ...

In no case, without provoking the reader to some rabid alarmism, it is worth considering a situation that may develop with the hypothetical refusal of the European Union from further integration under the same conditions. One of the pillars of those very old conditions is the attempt to create a territorial entity that would be as homogeneous as possible both financially and politically. And in this regard, the single currency, the euro, to which the overwhelming majority of the ideologues of the large-scale European union had really high hopes, served as a guiding light for Europeans.

So, let us imagine for a second that the economic crisis that “Mammai” went through in the states of southern Europe led to an understanding of the futility of endless lending to Greek, Italian, Spanish and Portuguese banks. In this regard, further strokes of the picture look something like this: South European banks, which received generous funding from the German, French and other financial systems in Europe, can move to these very systems. In other words, if it seems necessary to the same Paris and Berlin, then the Greek and other banks will become French or German, and the very essence of financial integration through the banking platform will finally turn into ashes. However, is such a scenario a picture of the future of Europe?

Many European political scientists and economists say that already now the same Greek financial system is, in fact, a large, crisis branch of the Berlin system. The German authorities, who today, reluctantly trying to pretend to help out their southern European neighbors, in fact, pursue a completely different goal. It is to save the South European markets to continue the sale of German goods on them. In fact, the integration of the same Greece, as, in principle, of a number of other countries, into the Eurozone is nothing more than a thoughtful economic and political move, when major European manufacturers simply squeezed their competitors out of the market in those same countries that were accepted into the Eurozone. .

It's no secret that the industry of the Greek state, after declaring the country a member of the single financial space of Greater Europe, began to experience very serious difficulties. It would seem that the industry has not disappeared anywhere, and at first even got the opportunity to export their goods abroad on favorable terms. However, what happened next was what this record of total European financial integration was brought to. The Greeks (like Italians, Spaniards and others) have become, simply put, richer. The level of their income jumped quite seriously. Everything from such a joyful event came to an indescribable delight. But then no one, either in Europe or in other parts of the world, had any idea that European integration, and even on the basis of a single currency with different variants of national governments, was a time bomb.

Southern Europe, after joining the Eurozone, could afford a little more than just buying goods released exclusively within its territorial framework. The increase in incomes provoked a rather active interest in high-quality and expensive goods, produced, for example, by the same Germany. Obviously, this perfectly stimulated the German industry. Then everything went on a deep enough track.

The Germans and the French are more willing to feed the "southerners" with loans, and those, in turn, are more willing to take these loans. They say that if they give, then you have to take it - why refuse? Well, we say, now a single family - that's what the elder brothers are sharing with us. And first of all, from this state of affairs, it must be admitted, it was good for both the giver and taker. In general, it seemed that this almost paradise life would only improve: rich Germans would get richer and provide money at a certain percentage to those who are directly interested in their products.

But, as we all know perfectly well, this euphoria was destined to come to its logical conclusion. The “elder brother” suddenly felt that the “younger brother” became less and less willing to pay his debts, and besides, like the whole world, he increasingly began to pay attention to goods of far from European origin. It came to an actual collision of interests, when the Southerners were declared: friends, you are wrong, because “who feeds a girl, he dances her,” and you decided to “dance” in another direction. However, it was already too late, and now the same Germans from the south who have driven themselves into a dead end have, in fact, declared: if you want to maintain at least a precarious balance in the Eurozone, give money without any conditions. And the Germans give. Sweat, curse, but give ... After all, they have nothing more to do ...

And now just the same and consider the option when the Germans and other sponsors of a large European construction site with a dampened and rotten foundation decide to announce that the Greeks, Spaniards, Italians and others need to go to their drams, pesetams and liras, and only remember about the euro in colored dreams. But then the Germans themselves are already completely and irrevocably losing the South European market, trying, perhaps, to pull its banking system to the surface, which has long been in the hands of Berlin and Parisian financiers.

After such a precedent, obviously, a new phase of the European stories, which can be characterized by the famous phrase "from love to hate ...". “Southerners”, not without a share of logic, can accuse the “northerners” of all mortal financial sins: they say, first they themselves have lured into the trap by the name of the euro, and now they are trying to get rid of us, making them financially untenable. And this can already lead to a further strengthening of left-wing and right-wing forces capable of trying to rally society under the slogan of revenge. Revenge for hanging an eurolight, forced under this yoke, say, to plow a couple of uneven furrows, dismantled and, having ceased to give oats, were returned to their not very impressive stall.

And after all, revanchist views and appeals are quite capable of finding their mass fan. Then even the famous Athenian riots with burnt cars and the defeated offices of foreign companies will seem like flowers.

In this case, it will suffice to appear a person with the qualities of a leader who can, with the help of propaganda, convince people of the need for revenge (as, for example, the 1933 model of the year has already been in Europe), in order to put civil anger on a destructive course.

If events follow this scenario, and there are prerequisites for that, then Europe should expect a big social explosion, which certain forces can use to solve their interests. The end of European integration can generate one of the largest European confrontations since the end of the Second World War.
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  1. Chuck-norris
    Chuck-norris 20 July 2012 09: 32
    +3
    The EU is already dying, the project was a failure. New participants from eastern and southern Europe were simply destroyed, industry, population, agriculture. They simply made a raw materials appendage and a place for marketing goods from them. Only the elite won.
    1. skullcap
      skullcap 20 July 2012 11: 19
      +11
      EU EU, and does not expect similar relations in the future between Russia and the WTO. Didn't Russia jump at the last moment on the ladder of the Titanic leaving the coast?
      And in general, when the democrats in the 91 were eager to steer the Union, they yelled with foam at the mouth that they would establish the power of the people in the country.
      Meanwhile, for all 20 years, the opinion of the people has not been asked. Democrats, as well as earlier communists, actually rule on behalf of the people, only much less professionally, lie more and steal more, disregard the opinions and interests of the people more and more, subordinating all aspects of life to the interests of the golden calf more and more, rapidly developing pornography, prostitution , drug addiction and all other immorality and crime.
      Having lived 39 years in the Soviet Union and almost 21 years in the democratic Russian Federation, I can say with full responsibility that democratic power is orders of magnitude worse and bloodier than the Soviet one.
  2. Stelth
    Stelth 20 July 2012 09: 35
    +4
    As the saying goes: "Greed ruined the fraer." There is no limit to the greed of bankers, but there is not enough foresight. The idea may have been good, and with a soft financial policy, the eurozone would have existed for a very long time.
  3. volcano
    volcano 20 July 2012 09: 48
    +8
    The collapse of the EU will naturally turn out to be such a destabilizing factor that the consequences could be the worst, and not only for Europe. The whole world will get it.
    The only way I see it is this: to decide on the dissolution of the EU, but to withdraw the countries gradually, one after the other, over the course of several years .... accurately .... without jerking.

    Well, again, the United States will benefit from this.

    By the way, the question is: And Britain did not enter the EU, because she knew that her older brother (USA) would make every effort to collapse him, or what?
    1. Morgan stanley
      Morgan stanley 20 July 2012 11: 20
      +3
      Quote: volkan
      The collapse of the EU will naturally turn out to be such a destabilizing factor that the consequences could be the worst, and not only for Europe. The whole world will get it.

      In my opinion, while talking about the eurozone. EU - European Union. The Eurozone is a bunch of countries where the Euro currency is circulating.
      Quote: volkan
      The only way I see it is this: to decide on the dissolution of the EU, but to withdraw the countries gradually, one after the other, over the course of several years .... accurately .... without jerking.

      In my opinion ... It makes no sense ... We are talking about the eurozone, not the EU, if countries are withdrawn from the EU, this will not have such consequences. But if the Eurozone collapses, then yes, collapse.
      Quote: volkan
      By the way, the question is: And Britain did not enter the EU, because she knew that her older brother (USA) would make every effort to collapse him, or what?

      Great Britain is in the EU, it is not in the eurozone. Well, I think the United States is profitable so that the EU and the eurozone break up, the dollar will again be the only world currency, and the United States will be the first in terms of GDP (now the EU has the largest GDP).
      I think you did not quite understand or read the article. wink
      1. volcano
        volcano 20 July 2012 12: 10
        0
        Morgan stanley
        Under the Eurozone, you can understand a lot of countries.
        But the Eurozone rests on the EU, and we are talking about this first of all. There will be no EU, there will be no Eurozone.

        And your words
        Quote: MorganStanley
        In my opinion, while talking about the eurozone. EU - European Union. The Eurozone is a bunch of countries where the Euro currency is circulating.


        I don’t even know how to comment.
        Currency "Euro" as the official one in this very EU, as unofficial throughout the world .... what is the question then?
        1. Morgan stanley
          Morgan stanley 20 July 2012 12: 45
          0
          Quote: volkan
          Under the Eurozone, you can understand a lot of countries.

          in the EU 17, and by agreement or without another 7.
          Quote: volkan
          But the Eurozone rests on the EU, and we are talking about this first of all. There will be no EU, there will be no Eurozone.

          But, the European Central Bank may become like the Fed in the United States.
          Quote: volkan
          how unofficial all over the world ...

          it simply pays off countries for whom it is beneficial, for whom the dollar for whom the euro.
          1. DEMENTIY
            DEMENTIY 20 July 2012 14: 04
            +3
            Very, very likely.
            I hope Ukraine still does not buy a ticket for this "Titanic" of the XXI century.
          2. volcano
            volcano 20 July 2012 18: 48
            0
            Listen, you got into tautology.
            The Eurozone is the EU. But since your statement, SEPARATELY about the EU and the Eurozone, suggests that you mean other countries where the euro is also in honor, I told you about this.

            and you are now telling me about the EU and the 17 countries that are members of it.

            Wasn't this my first post?
            Did you understand the article yourself? And the fact that there is an equal sign between the Eurozone and the EU?
  4. vladimir64ss
    vladimir64ss 20 July 2012 10: 45
    +1
    Euro-makers urgently need to abandon the stereotypes of political decisions. Unlike amers, the eurozone can be relatively simple to contract. There will be many screeches, but after a while the European Union will become strong. Amers will have to move, and the EU will negotiate with Russia on equal terms. Otherwise, the EU will wallow in squabbles and become even more dependent on external circumstances.
  5. damba
    damba 20 July 2012 11: 35
    +2
    The people are waiting for us if all kinds of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan join the customs and later Eurasian unions, who want to get rich on our income, we will work and they will eat and howl and gasp, supposedly because of their mercy, they have not passed through them yet borders all sorts of different Taliban yes militants enough !!!
  6. Petrovich-2
    Petrovich-2 20 July 2012 11: 45
    +2
    Quote: volkan
    Well, again, the United States will benefit from this.

    Exactly.
    You can’t sit on two chairs with one ass: try to pursue your policy independently of the states and give yourself completely to them, following in the wake of their policy. Madame Europe would have been determined, prostitution was never an honorable occupation, and predominantly ended in various funny diseases.
    I’m silent about the economy.
  7. 8 company
    8 company 20 July 2012 13: 24
    +1
    The article is a rehash of old songs about the "decay of capitalism", they were sung by fans back in the 19th century. Judging by the comments, there are still plenty of fans to sing about "decay". The Belarusians have Poland "rotting" nearby: salaries are 3 times higher than those of Belarusians, and meat costs 2 times less. I think the Europeans will cope with the crisis and the euro zone will be preserved, they will simply tighten the rules of conduct in the zone so that there is no financial hooliganism, that's all. I fully admit that some hooligans will be kicked out of the zone.
    1. Volodin
      20 July 2012 14: 17
      +3
      And the expulsion, as you say, of the hooligans from the eurozone and the tightening of the rules of conduct for everyone else - this is the very decay of that very capitalism. By the way, the national debt of the Poland you mentioned, which is not even in the Eurozone yet, is 54% of GDP, but the national debt of Belarus (judging by your flag, you live in it) is 1,5 times lower than the Polish one. And now, attention, the question: how long will it take for the Poles to get a big bill for their cheap meat and high salaries, as happened with the "rich" Greeks. So, Andrei, your comment once again confirms the total crisis of the European Union. Here's a "rehash" ...
      1. 8 company
        8 company 20 July 2012 20: 13
        -1
        And how do you, Alexei, from the data that the public debt of Belarus is 1,5 times lower than the Polish, let me curiosity?
        The level of public debt of Poland in 2011 makes up 53,5% of GDP:
        http://top.rbc.ru/economics/01/04/2012/644284.shtml
        The level of public debt of Belarus in 2011 accounts for 52,5% of GDP:
        http://select.by/content/view/3408/782/
    2. Stary oper
      Stary oper 20 July 2012 22: 31
      +1
      8 mouth (1)
      "The article is a rehash of old songs about the" decay of capitalism "..."
      And now, instead of light irony, some dry statistics ... :)
      The average change in German GDP as a percentage between 1992 and 1999 (8 years) is + 3,4625% and the same indicator for the same 8 years, but between 2002 and 2009 is + 1,675%. Trend - a decrease of a little more than 2 times. :) And this is the locomotive of the European economy.
      The data are calculated based on the statistical tables given on Wikipedia.
      1. 8 company
        8 company 21 July 2012 00: 54
        0
        Quote: Stary oper
        The average change in German GDP as a percentage between 1992 and 1999 (8 years) is + 3,4625% and the same indicator for the same 8 years, but between 2002 and 2009 is + 1,675%. Trend - a decrease of a little more than 2 times. :) And this is the locomotive of the European economy.


        That's what I look at on our forum a lot of Russian-speaking representatives from stagnant Germany. Probably, we went to raise from the ruins a Mercedes with a Volkswagen, like on a Komsomol construction site winked
        1. Stary oper
          Stary oper 21 July 2012 11: 34
          0
          8 company (1) -
          I waited, waited for you to hook on this topic ... :) True, they thought for a long time, like the Armenian radio. :) I notice that as soon as there are not enough arguments in the dispute, they begin to turn to questions of a personal nature. Why and how I ended up there, I’m not going to tell you, if only because these are personal issues that I don’t discuss with outsiders. The second one. Patriotism does not depend on where a person lives. It’s like decency. She is either there or she is not. For example, Kvsparov, Alekseeva and a number of others live in Russia. So what?
          1. 8 company
            8 company 21 July 2012 12: 53
            0
            Quote: Stary oper
            8 company (1) -
            I waited, waited for you to hook on this topic ... :) True, they thought for a long time, like the Armenian radio. :)


            Well, you have hooked on the topic of "decaying" Germany, meanwhile you know very well that Germany is the locomotive of the EU and is forced to spend its resources on saving it, on the rehabilitation of the sick finances of some not very conscientious and decent EU members. The USSR also spent huge sums on border republics, do you also reject this?
            1. Stary oper
              Stary oper 21 July 2012 16: 56
              0
              I cited specific facts showing the development trend of the economic situation in Germany. Now, about the fact that Germany "is forced to spend its resources on saving him, on the rehabilitation of the sick finances of some not very conscientious and decent EU members." and parallels with the USSR. Here, as they say in Odessa, there are two big differences. The USSR - it was one country, and the EU - not even a confederation. By the way, in Germany, too, three lands are forced to subsidize the rest. And more recently, the Bavarian Minister-President expressed his displeasure on this subject. But back to the topic of "not very conscientious and decent EU members." I want to remind you that it was Germany that initiated the creation of a single European currency. Why? Have you ever wondered why the question of this was on the agenda at the end of the 90s? Here's the thing. Shortly after the war, with the formation of the system of socialism and the GDR, West Germany faced the issue of competition with it. The USSR and its allies (paradoxically) by their existence served as an incentive for some change in capitalism towards social orientation. For one should not think that the working class of the West completely ignored the existence and certain successes of the socialist camp (we recall only what kind of hype caused Gagarin's flight around the world). It was at this time in Italy that the Communist Party became the second most influential in the country. It was at this time that the ultra-left student movement "Red Army" arose in Germany. They even waged a revolutionary struggle in the style of Russian People’s Volunteers and killed the Prosecutor General of Germany. Which served in the future as a reason for the ban of the Communist Party. This whole situation could not help but worry capitalism and they were forced to change their policies. It was soon after this that the concept of "people's capitalism" appeared. When at large enterprises workers even began to receive company shares and became, as it were, co-owners. At the same time, pre-Christmas payments went on (in our 13th salary) and vacation payments. Various benefits for maintaining a family. In those years, it was the norm that only a man worked in the family, and the woman was engaged in the home and raising children. All these measures led to a sharp surge in domestic demand, which in turn contributed to further economic growth. Revenue growth led to an increase in housing and services. By the way, so far, 68% of GDP falls on the services sector. The question arises: why such a sharp growth was possible in the FRG (in addition to the above reasons), but in the USSR and, for example, in the GDR? There are a number of reasons for this ... The most important of them is the Marshall Plan, according to which Germany received 1,3 billion. dollars (note that the value of the dollar then was significantly different from the value today. Just compare the cost of an ounce of gold in 1949 and in 2012). Second.
              But, back to the beginning ... After the collapse of the socialist system (the reasons for this are a separate conversation), capitalism no longer needed to have a "human face". After all, the main principle of the capitalist is to maximize profit. And, moreover, it is desirable not in the long term, but as soon as possible. What's the main way here? That's right - cost cutting. And hence the cost of wages. But the products produced required sales and then Germany turned its gaze to its neighbors in Europe. And for new sales markets, first a common economic space and simplification of trade barriers were required, and then a common currency, complete with globalization. That is, with the attraction of cheap labor from the countries of Eastern and Southern Europe and the transfer of production to other countries. The German economy has become more and more export-oriented. Already, many economics professors are sounding the alarm. For the export-oriented economy is very exposed to the conjuncture and leads to crises. I could give you a specific ratio of prices and incomes in Germany in the transition to the euro, but I do not want to tire you. That is why Germans with nostalgia recall the times of the German mark, often without even realizing that if it had not been for "a pike in the river, which did not allow the crucian carp to doze," it would not have helped them either.
              1. 8 company
                8 company 21 July 2012 22: 30
                0
                Quote: Stary oper
                This whole situation could not help but worry capitalism and they were forced to change their policies.


                You have the terminology of the times of "Capital" Karl Marx. Capitalism, socialism ... It's all outdated. The model of a planned economy and a socialist state has completely exhausted itself, and in the world for 20 years already, as soon as Cuba and North Korea follow this model completely, and Belarus and, possibly, a couple of other countries have more than 50% of state-owned enterprises. All others, including the state that you have chosen for your residence, have a normal market economy with freedom of private enterprise and private investment. The state only creates uniform laws for all, and monitors their implementation. It's funny when you write:

                After the socialist system collapsed (the reasons for this are a separate conversation), capitalism no longer needed to have a "human face".

                Presumably, your capitalist employers with "inhuman" faces have already begun to squeeze the last juices out of you? I invite you to emigrate to Belarus, here you will find yourself in one of the last strongholds of the planned economy in the world and you can easily earn at least 250-300 dollars a month. Maybe even 400! fellow
                1. Stary oper
                  Stary oper 22 July 2012 00: 02
                  0
                  8 mouth (1)
                  Don't make assumptions about my life. And yet - do not idealize the market economy (although, for your information, there is no pure market economy in the "country of my residence", since it is a mixed economy like an economic system) It would be nice to know such basic things. From my point of view, you cannot have a substantive conversation, so do not strain yourself in the future with discussions with me. :)
                  With hope for understanding.
                  For this, as they say, I take my leave, mister / comrade (underline as necessary) 8 companies. :)
                  1. 8 company
                    8 company 22 July 2012 01: 54
                    0
                    Quote: Stary oper
                    For this, as they say, I take my leave, mister / comrade (underline as necessary) 8 companies. :)


                    Have a nice one you too. Look, do not choke on the capitalist sausage produced by mercilessly exploited workers laughing
  8. segamegament
    segamegament 20 July 2012 17: 02
    +1
    This can become a reality if only it is possible to turn the Geyropa away from him and put him at least sideways, not to mention the face ...
  9. Uncle
    Uncle 20 July 2012 18: 10
    +1
    The collapse of the eurozone cannot but affect NATO.
  10. SlavaP
    SlavaP 20 July 2012 22: 53
    0
    The so-called euro zone is a sheep's skin for NATO. And our "exes" were lured there like flies with Velcro, only to step more painfully on the corn of Russia. Internal contradictions in the EU are huge, what we see is only the tip of the iceberg. Believe me that 90% of us in Britain only dream to die from there and are glad that they saved at least our pound sterling
  11. Oleg Rosskiyy
    Oleg Rosskiyy 20 July 2012 23: 49
    +2
    The entire European Union was initially created as a secondary organization, in the first place was NATO, thus two blocs were created - military and political, economic, to confront the former USSR, but after the collapse of the Union, the most important locomotive of the West - the United States, economic allies became are not needed as equal partners, so the United States artificially launched the mechanism of the economic crisis. Now, when the United States completely controls Western Europe, it is not difficult for Washington to settle, in its own interests, any of its geopolitical projects. But the "perfect minds" of the Pentagon could not even imagine that Russia would take the place of the USSR without asking their permission, and now the downtrodden, humiliated country not only rose from its knees, but also put it - the "World Hegemon" before the fact that now he will have to reckon with her opinion.
  12. fgc56gfs
    fgc56gfs 21 July 2012 23: 30
    -2
    You will probably be surprised - but there is a site in which data about all the inhabitants of the beating USSR.
    Everything that the authorities carefully concealed is now known to everyone on this site ydn. * Ru / sngpoisk (copy the link without *)
    You drive a name, a surname - and it shows you everything that can beat
    (your relatives, friends, phone numbers, well, a lot)
    And most importantly, it is accessible to everyone, I was really scared at first - you never know what moron there will climb
    Well, the truth is that you can remove yourself from the site, there you just need to find yourself, go through registration and delete