Do not agree with Russia? On the contrary!


Project "ZZ". In the coming 2020, foreign experts, mindful of the events of recent weeks and statements by President Putin, focused on the “damned” political question: is it possible to agree with Russia? The answers are the opposite: from "compromises are impossible" to "must talk."


Russia is everywhere


Political scientist and publicist Cyril Brae in the publication "Slate" spoke about the “warnings” that Russia made to the rest of the world in 2020.

In a January article written concisely, the expert highlighted all the main messages of Moscow to the international community.

The author notes that in recent years, Russia sent a number of messages to the international community, which clearly indicated strategic intentions “in the coming months”.

Why was this done in the last days? Brae believes that the reason for this is the difference in calendar dates.

In Orthodox Russia, the expert notes, the New Year precedes Christmas. The Julian calendar defines Christmas on January 24th. And it turns out that between December 1 to January XNUMX, when Europe and the United States relax and have fun, Russia is "very active." And she, according to the political scientist, knows how to take advantage of the "gap in the calendars." These days are used for certain events. In addition, Russia recalls the priorities for the past year and is preparing for the coming year.

In recent days, the Kremlin has sent several messages to the world, the analyst further writes. And gives a list of Russian statements and accomplishments. The list begins with the Ukrainian situation.

On December 29, a new exchange of prisoners took place between Moscow and Kiev. The dynamics of negotiations, which has given little hope since 2016, is now becoming "promising," the expert said. After the first exchange, which took place last year on September 7, and the resumption of discussions in the Norman format on December 9 in Paris, Vladimir Putin seems to have given the new president of Ukraine the opportunity to act. Mr. Zelensky needs such an opportunity to prepare for compromises. At the same time, even if “signs of appeasement” are noticeable, something else is obvious: Russia will not make any compromise with respect to Crimea. The expert does not doubt it at all.

The second item on the Brae list is large-scale military exercises in the Indian Ocean (December 27-30). Russia, Iran and China chose the season of Catholic and Protestant holidays for these maneuvers. Three states issued several warnings for 2020.

Firstly, the participants in the exercises made it clear: the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf, the most important areas of world maritime shipping, are not “American backyards”.

Secondly, the two nuclear powers will support Iran at sea and in the UN Security Council.

It also follows that the strategic partnership of Russia with China and Iran will not weaken even if the United States ceases to wage a trade war with China in 2020.

Next, the expert stops at the arms race. In his opinion, Russia has chosen this period for the implementation of several arms projects announced by the president back in March 2018. Then the general public was told about the development of the Avangard complex and others. A reminder of this on the eve of 2020 very clearly informs the international community: Moscow will not give up its status as a leader in the field of strategic weapons. And she will supply such weapons to her troops and sell them on the world market. Of course, Russia will use its advantage (“if it can”) in order to close the defense gaps received “during the period of the humiliation of 1990-2000,” Brae concludes.

The next item for the expert is the Middle East.

Russia again recalled its central role, which it again plays in Syria and the Middle East as a whole. The expert has been counting such a restoration by Russia of participation in Middle Eastern processes since 2015. This includes “significant air support for the Assad regime in operations that have begun in the Idlib area since mid-December.” And here Russia again marks the date - 2020: this year can be marked by the political process of ending the war in Syria. If this happens, it will be done on the conditions of Russia and under its auspices, the author of the article is sure.


Please talk with Russia!


To the question "Why should we talk with Russia" on the site Atlantic Council Two experts responded: S. Charap and J. Shapiro (Samuel Charap and Jeremy Shapiro).

The authors recall that the other day UkraineAlert (the name of the project under the Atlantic Council) published an article by Anders Oslund in which he criticized the report of the brain trust “RAND” (October 2019, the topic of a consensus proposal on a revised regional order in post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia ) Oslund is by no means a supporter of compromises with Russia, and the article by Charap and Shapiro criticizes two analysts for his irreconcilable position.

It is worth noting that Charap and Shapiro are the co-authors of the mentioned publication “RAND” along with nineteen co-authors from the European Union, the USA, Russia and several other states. Experts believe that Oslund’s article deserves an answer, inter alia, because it provides arguments that are often heard.

Charap and Shapiro et al in their report put forward a “compromise proposal” related to the idea of ​​revising the regional order in Eastern Europe. Compromise is inherently “dirty business,” both authors admit. This is a painful task: to separate what is really needed from what you just want to achieve. This requires an understanding of the prospects and fears of those people who sat at the negotiating table. And you need to understand these people even if you hate them, say Charap and Shapiro. At the same time, compromise is the quintessence of diplomacy, the only way to avoid coercion, violence and war in resolving international disputes. The main value of the report was that 21 authors, 21 experts could put forward their proposals, which at the same time would not be a panacea and would not be considered a kind of absolute. This is an attempt to demonstrate the existence of a compromise - regional leaders only need to be courageous and find one.

Do not agree with Russia? On the contrary!

Oslund, however, believes that efforts should consist in "identifying key dividing lines" and "real differences between the aspirations of Russia and the West." For this specialist, the essence of any diplomatic contact with Russia should begin with a description of the "reality" of the situation in Eastern Europe, by which he means a willingness to recognize Russia as the "guilty party" in many economic and political conflicts that concern the region. Charap and Shapiro in the question of “who is to blame” tend to agree more with their colleague Oslund than with Moscow, but this is not about that. After all, negotiations are conducted with opponents, and not with friends, the co-authors remind. And insisting that opponents “accept your story and renounce their own before you start negotiations is not diplomacy.” This is a "different way of war."

However, Oslund prefers to insist that no compromise with Russia is possible, experts further point out. “Of course, if everyone in Moscow and Washington shares his point of view, this will turn into a prophecy that will immediately come true,” analysts sneer. And they propose, for starters, to estimate the price of a new Cold War with Russia.

The first Cold War cost many trillions of dollars. Killed millions of people around the world. In the United States, civil liberties were undermined. Two generations of children grew up under the constant threat of nuclear destruction. But all this ended in a peaceful way, and experts consider such a finale as "something like a geopolitical miracle." And then they remark: "It would be foolish to expect a repeat of such a miracle."

Therefore, before accepting the “catastrophic result”, one should study the possibility of a compromise, even if for many in Washington “it is always the year 1938.” Experts propose considering a compromise before the lands of those nations that find themselves between America and Russia turn into a battlefield. “In the struggle of generations between the forces of good and evil, we are trying to understand whether it is possible to find a way to offer them a path to security and prosperity,” the authors conclude, because in the new Cold War “only China can win”.


Despite the fact that S. Charap and J. Shapiro are more likely to stand on the side of A. Oslund, both differ from the latter in that they not only recognize the path of compromises in complex international relations, but also do everything in order to find such a compromise. Denial of the compromise and declaring it impossible is an unequivocal path to geopolitical confrontation. In the words of experts, this is a war by other means.
Author:
Photos used:
kremlin.ru, Marina Stroganova
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  3. rocket757 9 January 2020 07: 00 New
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    All sorts of dreamers, “analysts,” also want their own sandwich with butter! Sometimes verbal battles in a public field are not badly paid, especially custom-made ones.
    1. Basil50 9 January 2020 07: 24 New
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      rocket
      You are very divorced right ......
      That the author is that those to whom he refers are asleep and see how they come up with something and then they will demand that everyone else, even those who do not agree with them, begin to change their beliefs and their memory of the past and much more. The basis of these requirements * Well, I want it so much, but I can meet you in some ways, for example, what we will drink when discussing how YOU will change both your point of view and your responsibility *.
      No wonder today in Europe so tolerance is praised by the very Talleyrand who openly made decisions only after payment.
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      2. rocket757 9 January 2020 08: 42 New
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        Quote: Vasily50
        No wonder today in Europe so tolerance is praised by the very Talleyrand who openly made decisions only after payment.

        Welcome soldier
        Now there is a commercialization of TOTAL!
        LODGE! Everything is clear with her for a long time. Everything is divided and paid there.
        Now they are trying to release the TRUTH in the same way!
        President "young man" is already the edge !!! Although if you dive deeper into history, there have already been precedents, but the form and methods were different, you cannot directly compare.
        Maybe it’s just such a time? We will see.
    2. Siberia 75 9 January 2020 08: 16 New
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      The author notes that recently Russia sent a number of messages to the international community

      Yes, in general, Russia sends one message - Stop dictating the terms, talk.
      1. rocket757 9 January 2020 08: 48 New
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        Quote: Siberia 75
        Yes, actually that message Russia sends one

        Yes, it’s written on the poster and hung on the facade ... LONG TIME!
  4. Same lech 9 January 2020 07: 06 New
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    And you need to understand these people even if you hate them, say Charap and Shapiro.


    Experts slept ... it is necessary as they love us.
    1. Monster_Fat 9 January 2020 10: 43 New
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      "Russia's influence in the world"? Oh yeah! "Great raw superpower"! love
      1. Nyrobsky 9 January 2020 11: 41 New
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        Quote: Monster_Fat
        "Russia's influence in the world"? Oh yeah! "Great raw superpower"! love

        Are you ironic ?! Well, why, then, the entire political establishment of the United States and Europe is constantly howling, aching and complaining that the "Great Raw Material Superpower" does not allow them to live in peace? If they shared your irony, then surely their analysts and media workers would die of hunger.
  5. nikvic46 9 January 2020 07: 10 New
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    The war between good and evil. I think this concept has stuck in their heads for a long time. Everyone who is aggressive considers the whole world as such.
    1. bessmertniy 9 January 2020 07: 25 New
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      Perhaps what can be welcomed in our foreign policy is a reorientation towards constructive contacts, from which Russia can really be of some use. With countries that have been sprinkled with sanctions on us, there is nothing worth waiting for. In such a situation, relations with Iran, Turkey, the Philippines, a number of African countries, etc. become beneficial for us. what
      1. Same lech 9 January 2020 07: 28 New
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        In such a situation, relations with Iran, Turkey, the Philippines, a number of African countries, etc. become beneficial for us.

        Well, what are you saying ... the leaders of these states have long been on Trump's list after Suleimani ... he probably already scribbles another Twitter that they have beautiful and beautiful rockets prepared for them ... hehe and everything will be fine.
      2. nikvic46 9 January 2020 07: 42 New
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        Victor. At the moment, such a relationship is beneficial for us. It would be a counterbalance to the opponent. The United States has many enemies. I think not every enemy of my enemy is my friend. And as for "where were the rockets ...", it’s unlikely Americans will answer it.
    2. GKS 2111 9 January 2020 07: 34 New
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      Quote: nikvic46
      .Everyone who is aggressive considers the whole world as such.

      There is a concept of projection in psychology. This is when a person has some qualities, but cannot, does not want to recognize them in himself and begins to blame another person for them. It can be easier said, from a sore head to a healthy one ..
      1. bessmertniy 9 January 2020 07: 51 New
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        We are talking about the fact that we need to have our own benefit. If it is more profitable for us to import not California apples and other fruits, but from Africa, Latin America, then this must be done. It is possible that instead of Bush’s legs, it was more profitable for us to import meat and poultry, say, from Argentina. But for some reason they brought from the USA.
    3. Boris55 9 January 2020 09: 15 New
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      Quote: nikvic46
      Everyone who is aggressive considers the whole world as such.

      In other words "For one who has a hammer in his hands, the whole world is nails".
      Can a nail come to terms with a hammer? It is unlikely, but a hammer with a hammer - quite.

      The Western concept of building the World on the principle of "man to man is a wolf", where the whole World works for the interests of one, has failed. Russia is building a new world order where everyone is equal and cooperation is mutually beneficial, where everyone works for their own interests and the interests of the whole World.
      1. Monster_Fat 9 January 2020 11: 42 New
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        Russia is building a new world order where everyone is equal and cooperation is mutually beneficial, where everyone works for their own interests and the interests of the whole World.

        laughing lol That's what, I look at the "equal", "mutually beneficial" "prosperous" population of Russia .... Especially, at Russian pensioners. good And the fact that “everyone works for their own interests” and “the interests of the whole world” is the true truth — the government, the leadership and the Duma of Russia will not let you lie:
        Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev signed a decree on the provision of subsidies to stimulate demand and increase the competitiveness of Russian industrial products.

        According to the document, which is published on the government website, 2020 billion rubles will be allocated from the federal budget for these purposes in 9,8.

        The money is provided for "meeting the needs of industrial enterprises in the modernization of production" and will be available to "a wide range of consumers," the statement to the decision says.

        Up to 80% of the pledged amount should go to the auto industry and railway engineering, another 10% to agricultural equipment manufacturers. The operator of the program will be the Ministry of Industry and Trade, which will collect applications for subsidies, hold a tender and distribute funds according to a formula that includes the actual volume of production.

        The amount budgeted for industrial competitiveness will be almost half the cost of maintaining the State Duma and the Federation Council (18,01 billion rubles).

        According to the Accounts Chamber, in 2020 the government will increase funding for the Duma by 9,6%, or 1,07 billion rubles, to 12,096 billion.
        About half of the new budget money will be used to increase salaries: the costs of “payments to personnel” from 7,4 billion rubles last year increase to 8,146 billion rubles in this (+ 10%).
        Expenditures on the Federation Council will grow by 11% - from 5,327 to 5,914 billion rubles.

        The new money will probably help the State Duma to get out of the list of federal officials lagging behind in their standard of living. According to the Federal State Statistics Service, in 2017 the average salary in the lower house was 158,8 thousand rubles, while in the presidential administration - 236,6 thousand rubles, and in the government - 240,3 thousand. In the Federation Council, officials received an average of 186,4 thousand rubles.

        https://www.finanz.ru/novosti/aktsii/na-modernizaciyu-rossiyskoy-promyshlennosti-vydelyat-menshe-chem-na-soderzhanie-gosdumy-1028795530 smile
        1. Boris55 9 January 2020 12: 24 New
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          Quote: Monster_Fat
          That’s why I look at “equitable”, “mutually beneficial”, “prosperous”

          I’m not even talking about foreign policy, but about the global one that Russia pursues and with which the United States has to reckon. You are talking about domestic politics, the essence of which is defined in the May decrees, but their implementation is entrusted to the government and the Duma, which we all have chosen together. New elections coming soon. If we choose the same, then nothing will change.
          1. Monster_Fat 9 January 2020 12: 55 New
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            Yeah, as always, the "thought is to blame" ..... No, this is not a "global policy" at the expense of "internal resources" - Gazprom and its SP-2 will not lie (well, VTB Bank with its recapitalization "is the same). Or, a fresh example of "international, mutually beneficial cooperation":
            1. Boris55 9 January 2020 13: 16 New
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              Quote: Monster_Fat
              Or, a fresh example of "international, mutually beneficial cooperation":

              Do not confuse the family budget with the state. If in the family budget money is a way of survival, then in international relations it is a tool for conducting foreign policy.
  6. BAI
    BAI 9 January 2020 08: 57 New
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    Russia will not compromise on the Crimea. The expert does not doubt it at all.

    This is obvious to everyone.
  7. K-50 9 January 2020 09: 11 New
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    On December 29, a new exchange of prisoners took place between Moscow and Kiev.

    And what does Moscow have to do with it?
    Between Kiev and the Donbass, more truly and precisely! fool
  8. Ros 56 9 January 2020 10: 04 New
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    How many more are sitting and wondering on the coffee grounds ..... I have the impression that the West is simply degrading and spinning in my head the thought, why are we trying to follow in their footsteps in terms of education (debilitation of citizens), culture (or rather lack of culture), TV (entirely dominance of vulgarity and swagger), etc.
    1. Boris55 9 January 2020 10: 16 New
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      Quote: Ros 56
      I have the impression that the west is simply degrading

      West is preparing for the next campaign tries ost. Too many people, too many emigrants, it would be necessary to "recycle" and the war with Russia is an ideal option, and if you are lucky then destroy Russia. Ours, to put it mildly, pro-Westerners to help them - this is the debilitation of our population and everything else that works to destroy the country.

      I have already written about Sokurov more than once, but how many of them, having reached the microphone and screaming about freedom of speech, forgetting to mention that they are interested in freedom of speech only for them and for no one else ...
      1. Monster_Fat 9 January 2020 12: 12 New
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        Ours, to put it mildly, pro-Westerners to help them - this is the debilitation of our population and everything else that works to destroy the country.

        It has been precisely noticed that the "patriotically oriented" Russian leadership has long identified the main threat to Russia, these are .... doctors and teachers are the "main corrupt officials", the "pillar of the" fifth column ", and" ardent pro-Westerners ", yes.


        Well, the main "saviors" of Russia, according to the president, are Russian oligarchs (whom the guarantor called "patriotically oriented entrepreneurs", though they all have money and families in the "West", but this is "not considered" yes ), yes.
        1. Boris55 9 January 2020 12: 31 New
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          Quote: Monster_Fat
          It’s precisely noticed that the “patriotically oriented” Russian leadership has long identified the main threat to Russia, that’s .... doctors and teachers

          Add here the same pensioners, payers of housing and communal services, VAT, rising energy prices, etc. All this is done by some kind of mythical leadership, and we elected the Duma, through the adoption of relevant laws. Let me remind you that only the Duma and no one else can make laws in our country.

          Constitution of the Russian Federation Xnumx
          1. Federal laws are adopted by the State Duma.
          2. Federal laws are adopted by a majority of the total number of deputies of the State Duma ...

          Quote: Monster_Fat
          According to the president, the main "saviors" of Russia are Russian oligarchs

          There are some.
          Patriotic Jew Rotenberg built the Crimean bridge, and not the Russian patriot Rogozin ditched three budgets, but never built the Vostochny Cosmodrome ...
          1. Monster_Fat 9 January 2020 13: 00 New
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            Patriotic Jew Rothenberg

            yes laughing lol love hi Thank you, you made me morning. I will bring your statement into my notebook with successful “aphorisms”.
  9. steelmaker 9 January 2020 10: 08 New
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    It would be better if Putin did not talk and did not agree with the West at all. These his conversations and agreements on the well-being of his people have no effect. WRONG! 20 years in power, but he can’t really feed people! For a salary of 11300 rubles, only you can not die of hunger!
  10. Arkady Gaidar 9 January 2020 11: 09 New
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    If the author of the article and readers are interested in the causes of the New Year's world events and their consequences, leave your e-mail, or sites where they will transmit information to you. And you will be surprised how simple it is, to the commonplace. Politicians and political analysts like to attach importance to themselves. But in fact, these "meteorologists" slept through the "hurricane of the millennium," which will strike 10 years later. And now they are trying to justify themselves, they are taking the conversation the other way, thimbles in one word))
  11. kriten 9 January 2020 12: 50 New
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    The United States will follow the path of increased tension, hybrid wars and coups. Hundreds of thousands and millions of people dying at the same time will only please them. After all, this is one of the main goals of the global corporations community ... And despite the fact that groupings of corporations may have different interests (for example, financial and industrial, etc.), they are united in this matter.