The Power of Siberia gas pipeline: is success obvious or doubtful?

One of the important events of the past year 2019 in the energy sector is the launch of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline, through which gas is supplied to the People's Republic of China. The Siberian deposits are becoming a donor for this gas pipeline. It is noted that the start of operation of the pipeline provides opportunities for the development of the East Siberian infrastructure, for attracting financial investments.

In the program "Prime Numbers" economist Anton Komolov sees no reason for particular optimism in terms of the start of the work of the Power of Siberia. The author of the program criticizes in connection with the fact that many settlements in the gas-bearing regions of Siberia themselves are still not gasified, but gas through the pipe went to China.

In this regard, a rather complicated question is being discussed: where to find that middle ground between the gasification of the Russian regions and the receipt of investment inflows against the background of supplies of "blue fuel" abroad.

For obvious reasons, the Russian budget will receive additional impressive funds from the sale of gas to China. But it is important that these funds go specifically to the development of the regions of Siberia, and not dissolve in doubtful accounts. At the same time, it is important to understand that Russia is fueling the Chinese economy, which receives additional competitive advantages, with cheap “pipe” Russian gas. is success so obvious or doubtful?

Komolov presents his vision of the situation in the issue of "Prime numbers":

Comments

[GKS 2111]

"For obvious reasons, the Russian budget will receive substantial additional funds from the sale of gas to China. But it is important that these funds go specifically to the development of Siberian regions, rather than dissolving on a dubious accountOh"
Yes, it will be so. In our region, half of the villages are not gasified, but China, with our respect ..

[max702]

Quote: GKS 2111

In our region, half of the villages are not gasified, but to China, with our respect.

And will not be! If such a population density in China or Germany would never have gone to these settlements, it would never pay for itself, and secondly, gas on our market is several times cheaper than with deliveries abroad and this is the main brake on gasification .. Alas, there will not be the income level of the population has been raised, you can forget about gasification .. The construction of gas and oil pipelines is precisely the fastest way to increase the income of the population. Even trivial construction involves tens of thousands of jobs across the country and well paid, I worked for the SS in logistics. Thousands of all kinds of necessary cargoes for construction went through me, from a needle to stop valves weighing under 20 tons, from a set of linen to X-ray machines for defectoscopy. pumps, generators, building materials, pipes, to hell with what else, the nomenclature totaled more than 15 units, there were both our goods and China and the whole gamut of foreign manufacturers .. One provision of builders' towns is a song! For example, Ust-Kut almost died in the 000s-90s with the construction of the ESPO and the SS the city just came to life because supplies went all through it .. Any ruble spent in our country, and not exported over a hill, is very good! Now we are talking about SS-2000 .. And yes, the settlements that lie in the immediate vicinity of the pipeline are just the same gasified, despite the small sense in this ..

[Far B]

and getting an investment inflow

Our state budget is bursting with undeveloped funds. What is the influx of investment from abroad ??? We cannot use our money. From bureaucracy only last year, more than a trillion rubles remained undeveloped. Iconists are bad.

[Vladimir Fedin]

How much can you listen to the liberal howls that the Power of Siberia did not go to Russian cities? It is enough to open the map to see that the pipe goes through the dense taiga, and hundreds of kilometers to the nearest more or less large settlements. And besides, in addition to monetary aspects, there are also geopolitical ones; liberalists do not see this point blank. The pipeline strengthens the economic ties between Russia and China. The more such ties, the more mutual interests and the less likely to see an armed confrontation.

[Gardamir]

Liberal howls

It's time to add the word "liberal" to the prohibited on the site, if you can't explain your opinion, then you are looking for the guilty. Once upon a time the Jewish-Masons were to blame, even earlier the enemies of the people, now the liberals.
I don’t know, but they say that all global gas pipelines will not pay off even in 50 years

[vitvit123]

When you don’t know, maybe it’s better to be silent?

[Gardamir]

do not you know

Well, since you know, explain. Or maybe you are a liberalist?

[vitvit123]

I wrote somewhere that I know? Once again, I asked you that when you don’t know, it might be better to remain silent? (even the proverb is such, there is something about smart ones that seem to be said).
Is Liberast somewhere near a kindergarten? or are you what?

[Gardamir]

something about smart

Well, New Year, and we have fun!

The main conclusion that Sberbank CIB analysts Alex Faq and Anna Kotelnikova make in the May report on Russian oil and gas companies is the main beneficiaries of Gazprom's projects for the construction of three export pipelines to China (Power of Siberia) and Europe (Nord Stream-2) and Turkish Stream) are not its shareholders, but contractors, among which Stroygazmontazh Arkady Rotenberg and Stroytransneftegaz (about 50% belong to Gennady Timchenko and his family).

According to investment bank experts, investments in these projects are unprofitable. “We find that Gazprom’s decisions are completely understandable if we assume that the company is managed in the interests of its contractors, and not for commercial gain,” the report said.

And so?

[vitvit123]

There are a lot of such analytics every day for different orders and for different money. although I think you already know that. These are just people working somewhere as analysts! these words are the same as yours
----- I do not know, but they say --------

[Sergey1987]

Quote: Gardamir

According to investment bank experts, investments in these projects are unprofitable. “We find that Gazprom’s decisions are completely understandable if we assume that the company is managed in the interests of its contractors, and not for commercial gain,” the report said.

Just nonsense. Firstly, there are commercial benefits if Gazprom's net profit is $ 12 billion. Secondly, people also work in European corporations in the interests of Gazprom contractors, for this they invest money in SP-2?

[antivirus]

listened to - nonsense.
possible losses from SilSib are part of the profit of all Gazprom,
The main thing was to get away from the EU, Geyropec decided to bend the Miller (there are Americans friends), income independent of Europe changes the relationship with old buyers.
Gazprom only plays a role in the geopolitics of the Kremlin. + Gazprom is not a water pump, but an actor DIFFICULT (sometimes successful) its rules of the game on the gas market and all associated gas.
TNCs of the West organized coups, --- Gazprom is only growing — they are trying to stop it. the road will be overpowered (I have already repeated 3 times - trolling, like a spoon)
TO ACCOUNT PROFITS ONLY ANNUALLY - THOSE NEXT, NEED TO COUNT IN 10-15-30 YEARS.

[Erik]

Change the technique.

[antivirus]

I always have breakfast at the same time
what to change?

[Erik]

What wretched local magazines!))

[Vadim237]

And the Yutubov experts are even more miserable.

[Vadim237]

If I had listened to their advice, I would have long gone bankrupt.

[Tuk77]

In the case of Power of Siberia, payback is generally questionable.
No wonder the price at which Russian gas will go to China has never been announced. This is the mystery behind seven seals. Instead, prices voiced some kind of obscure formula. Why?
If, for example, the remaining data on gas sales to any European country is publicly available?
In addition, China has already stated that it will drastically reduce the consumption of Russian gas.
Now the question is: who did we want to deceive with the so-called "pivot to the East"? This next multi-move?

[Vadim237]

"In addition, China has already announced that it will sharply reduce the consumption of Russian gas." Probably in your fantasies and libels of Internet jaundice, the design of Power of Siberia 2 continues with a capacity of 80 billion cubic meters per year, construction should begin before 2030.

[Sergey1987]

Quote: Tuk77

In the case of Power of Siberia, payback is generally questionable.

The total price of the contract between Gazprom and China's CNPC will amount to $ 400 billion for 30 years. So how could there be a payback question?

Quote: Tuk77

No wonder the price at which Russian gas will go to China has never been announced. This is the mystery behind seven seals. Instead, prices voiced some kind of obscure formula.

What is incomprehensible there? Aleksey Grivach, deputy head of the National Energy Security Fund (NESF), told ITAR-TASS that the contract price is presumably in the range of $ 380-390 per 1 cubic meters. m. As the expert explained, when assessing the base price of the contract, he proceeded from the supply volumes of 1,025-1,04 trillion cubic meters. m for 30 years. At the same time, he added that in his calculations he took into account that the shelf supply of 38 billion cubic meters. m per year "Gazprom" will be released in five years from the start of supplies.

Quote: Tuk77

In addition, China has already stated that it will drastically reduce the consumption of Russian gas.

Where did you read that? Give a reference?

[Cottodraton]

It’s ironic to hear this from a liberal.

Doesn’t resemble anything?) And I thought liberalism is when everyone can express their point of view, but no, when only liberals can brand everyone) ... go on!)

[Gardamir]

but no, this is when t

You have been here for a year and a half, have you really not noticed that a liberal is a local obscene word. As someone who does not agree, so liberalist.

[g1v2]

This is called infrastructure. Intellectuals are constantly howling that new bridges, roads, railway lines, power plants, gas pipelines will not pay off. After all, they go where there is nothing. But without infrastructure, nothing will appear and will not be able to. A simple example is the Power of Siberia. Intellectuals with one meandering like this "economist", for example, do not know that a gas pipeline, before going to the PRC, goes to the Amur gas processing plant under construction, where all parallel fractions are separated from this gas. As a result, only methane goes to China, and ethane, propane, butane, helium, etc. will be processed into chemical products. Intellectuals have never heard of the new project in Ust Luga, ZapSibNefteKhim and much more. Now we are barely getting into the top ten in terms of chemical production in the world. After the end of all the projects under construction, we will take a solid third place. But howling hysterics are not interested in this. A shovel, a fecal pit and a fan are all they need to be happy.

[Sergey1987]

Quote: g1v2

After finishing all the construction under construction, we will come out on a solid third place. But howling tantrums are all not interesting. A shovel, a fecal pit and a fan are all they need for happiness.

I shake my hand and subscribe to each word. Finally a normal comment. Already tired of nagging and nonsense to read these pseudo experts.

[Mavrikiy]

Quote: Gardamir

It's time to add the word "liberal" to the prohibited on the site, if you can't explain your opinion, then you are looking for the guilty. Once upon a time the Jewish-Masons were to blame, even earlier the enemies of the people, now the liberals.

Oh, how insulting the liberals. Well, you deserve it and wear it. Otherwise, it will be necessary to ban "urapatriot", "all the fugitives", "Putinist".

[Ingvar 72]

Quote: Vladimir Fedin

The pipeline strengthens the economic ties between Russia and China.

Strengthening ties should be mutually beneficial.

[Sayan]

Quote: Vladimir Fedin

How much can you listen to the liberal howls that the Power of Siberia did not go to Russian cities? It is enough to open the map to see that the pipe goes through the dense taiga, and hundreds of kilometers to the nearest more or less large settlements. And besides, in addition to monetary aspects, there are also geopolitical ones; liberalists do not see this point blank. The pipeline strengthens the economic ties between Russia and China. The more such ties, the more mutual interests and the less likely to see an armed confrontation.

I am also amused by such "analysts", they are chatting about what they have not seen))), I would take this whiner a ticket to Talakan, from there to Chayanda on a shift station, where the pipe begins and along the pipe I moved to Svobodny and looked what and how, at the same time I saw branches from it to a few settlements where there is central heating and a grandiose construction site in the Free Gas Distribution Station - not only the Chinese will go gas

[Sergey Sfiedu]

"It is enough to open the map to see that the pipe goes through the deep taiga, and hundreds of kilometers to the nearest more or less large settlements."
Actually, it’s not very far from my house. There was no gas, and no.

[Lbaralgeen]

In Japan, they don’t understand what gasification is? There are no gas pipelines in principle.
And in Canada, just outside the city - everyone has a balloon.

[Ingvar 72]

Japan and Canada produce gas?

[AU Ivanov.]

Canada produces gas. Norgs in small towns also have gas in cylinders, and the heating is wood. Moreover, part of the firewood is imported from Russia.

[Ingvar 72]

Quote: AS Ivanov.

Norgs in small towns also have gas in cylinders

But let's cancel gasification altogether, it’s not profitable, right? Andrei, are you tired of justifying the stupid economic policies of the government within the country?
For example, you would look at gas reserves in Canada, and the number of non-gasified settlements. In Europe, more settlements are gasified by our gas than in our country.

[Vadim237]

You have already written how much money is needed to gasify the whole of Russia and that this work will last for decades. "In Europe, more settlements are supplied with gas with our gas than in our country." Compare the areas of Europe and Russia to begin with, as well as compare the population density.

[AU Ivanov.]

Gasify gradually. I spent gas in my village four years ago. But we have cheap wood, alder is considered a weed tree.

[Zaurbek]

There are other videos .... for example Marcinkiewicz. There, too, everything is painted in detail.

[knn54]

China imports LNG from Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia, and New Guinea, as well as more and more from the United States. These LNG volumes account for about 60 percent of China's natural gas imports. Two pipelines come from Central Asia, mainly from Turkmenistan.
The Power of Siberia is interesting for the PRC for the following reasons:
-reserve, in case of supply interruptions from the Yankes and Co. because it is laid in the "deep rear";
-price;
-in the supplied gas, in addition to methane, are propane, butane, and helium. T.E., after purification, finished raw materials for the chemical industry.
Regarding domestic supplies. No wonder nuclear plants set records. T, e EVERYTHING will be converted to electricity.

[Vadim237]

LNG will soon rise in price, as these countries sell it below cost.

[Cottodraton]

Helium and other associated gases will be taken at the Amur GPP

[vitvit123]

Quote: Ingvar 72

Japan and Canada produce gas?

Canada definitely produces and it seems a lot. No matter in the region of 5th place in production.
But I have a question, and should production and gasification (of the country) be interconnected?
I immediately remembered about Qatar (), what percentage of gasification there ...

[Ingvar 72]

Quote: vitvit123

and production and gasification (countries) should be interconnected

The mind must.

[vitvit123]

Ahhh, then - yes ..

[nikvic46]

I don’t think that the buyer will blackmail the seller. The benefits of China are obvious. First, the population’s employment. These are import companies. It is processing gas into hard and soft products. It will be exported sequentially. China will grind (process) any raw material imports. To send finished products for export.

[Vadim237]

China primarily needs gas for energy consumption.

[karabass]

Of course, it will not pay off, I also have an open secret, it’s not for nothing that the price sections of the contract are classified
It was not built for the sake of making a profit, remember - after the Crimea, when the United States wanted Europe to give up Russian gas, and in turn promised to turn off the swift for us. But the European Union did not agree to this, not wanting to suffer because of Ukraine. This pipeline was supposed to be a "holy crutch" for Russia in the event of a worst-case scenario

[Vadim237]

If this gas pipeline were not paid back, no one would have built it, but it has already paid off by creating large Russian enterprises like Sibneftekhim and Amur Gas Processing Plant which will produce processed products that are necessary for the entire world industry. The price for 1000 cubes for China is more than 210 dollars.

[atalef]

Quote: Vadim237

If this gas pipeline weren’t being paid back, nobody would build it,

come on

Mikhail Krutikhin, a Russian economic analyst, oil and gas market specialist, historian and orientalist, partner at RusEnergy consulting agency, commented in a NI comment that China did not need the Power of Siberia gas pipeline initially, Russia will be able to reach its rated capacity at best 10 years later and that the project was not originally commercial - this is an expensive window dressing:

“First. The project was surrounded by lies from the very beginning. When they announced at the signing of the document that it was a contract, and it was not a contract, but a memorandum of understanding. All contract numbers had to be inserted there later.
The second one. It was announced that the Chinese will co-finance a project worth $ 20-25 billion. The Chinese did not promise anything and didn’t give a dime. It was also a lie.
Further, they said that from the moment of opening, 38 billion cubic meters of gas will be pumped to China, they even calculated how much it will be for 10 years, they even gave the amount. But, one must take into account that the gas pipeline together with the entire system can reach this annual volume not earlier than in another 10 years - well, if by 28, or even by 30. That is, this is also a lie.
Regarding the profitability of the project, if the Minister of Energy himself, speaking in the Duma, said that this was a non-profit project, this should be taken into account. And, when we see the calculations of Gazprom experts, saying that up to 28-30 the project will not reach its payback - i.e. it is a costly, unprofitable project for Russia - everything is becoming clear.
Then. China does not need so much gas. He was persuaded for 15 years to agree to this project, hardly persuaded, and China is now cutting back on gas imports. Therefore, firstly, he will not take so much gas - this is absolutely accurate, and secondly, he will, as the only consumer at that end of the expensive pipe, dictate his terms, as he already dictated through the oil pipe.
Therefore, this project looks like an expensive window dressing, and the only ones who materially benefit from this project are the contractors who profited from its construction. With their contracts, bloated estimates.
The Russian budget in the person of Gazprom, which is still a state-controlled company, only lost on this.
The total cost of the project, if we were to calculate it, together with a gas processing plant, field development, the cost of a pipeline, compressor stations, and so on, it will reach approximately $ 100 billion. Not 55, as Gazprom said, but, if everything is taken into account, up to one hundred billion. And it never comes back and never pays off
https://newizv.ru/article/general/02-12-2019/mihail-krutihin-proekt-sila-sibiri-s-samogo-nachala-byl-okruzhen-vraniem.

Quote: Vadim237

The price for 1000 cubes for China is more than 210 dollars

do not tell tales.
Price depends on the price of oil.
And the calculation formula is classified.
The question is why?

[Zusul]

How the whiners got it! Is it really hard to turn on the brain?
Well, it's simple math ... How much will the infrastructure for supplying gas to a village of 10 yards pay off? A hundred years? After all, nobody will allow you to lift prices 10 times. And if everyone (or dies of old age) is dumped from the derkvni in 5 years? Do you want to indemnify for our account with you?
Where there is no volume, there is no profit and, accordingly, there is no economic feasibility to invest. Everything is simple, nothing personal, just business. And it's ok