Forces and signs of fate. Prophets, politicians, and generals
The Chess Players. Allegorical painting by F.M. Retsem in the XNUMXth century
At all times and all ages, people wanted to know the future and their fate. The world seemed huge and scary, full of hostile forces, and the theme of death is a black thread through the whole history humanity.
Chess Death, Medieval Mural
“What will happen to the Motherland and to us?”
The title question, inadvertently posed by Yu. Shevchuk in one of the songs, is no less burning than the notorious “main questions” of Russian history: “Who is to blame?”, “What should I do?”, “Who should live well in Russia?” But still more universal, since the answer to it to the British, Belgians, Ukrainians, Syrians or Afghans is no less interesting than the Russians.
Alessandro Allory. "Allegory of human life"
All kinds of rulers of different countries (whatever they were called), politicians and generals, nothing human was alien, and they often turned to specialists at hand for predictions. Sometimes they didn’t really want to, but they had to: either a comet flies up, then a solar or lunar eclipse scares everyone, “false suns”, pillars and even crosses in the sky (halo) appear, the aurora will illuminate the night where it and never seen - just have time to "decrypt".
Los Angeles Lunar Eclipse, November 11, 2016
Voice of Heaven
Unfortunately for the current prophets, science has deprived them of the possibility of interpreting various astronomical and atmospheric phenomena. And now you will not frighten anyone with the prediction of a solar eclipse and you will not pass out some kind of column of fire in the sky as the will of heaven. Whether business before! Christopher Columbus on the island of Jamaica, having "stolen" the Taino Moon from the Indians (eclipse on February 29, 1504), was able to force them to supply their crew with food for free.
In 312, the army of Constantine the Great, who opposed Maxentius, saw a cross of fire in heaven. This halo was of great importance for the future of a whole world religion - Christianity. Because in the battle at the Mulvian Bridge, Konstantin won.
Rafael Santi, "Vision of the Cross." Fresco fragment of the Constantine Hall of the Pontiff's Palace in the Vatican
Another emperor, but no longer Byzantine, but German, Charles V, was so impressed with the phenomenon of a halo with false suns over the besieged Magdeburg (in 1551) that he allowed himself to be convinced that this city was protected by heaven.
However, there are examples of more rational behavior. You probably remember that the “black sun” blocked the path of Igor Svyatoslavich’s marching campaign to the Polovtsy.
The prince of Putivl looked at the sky and said:
(Ipatiev Chronicle.)
Or maybe in vain Igor neglected the "will of heaven"? No, after the first victory, he, the most experienced of the princes, called the others home, but they did not go: they said that the horses were tired. And the next day, they saw the enormous forces of the Polovtsy. And their appearance did not depend on a solar eclipse. These Polovtsy, as Igor rightly remarked, also saw an eclipse and could also frighten themselves if they wanted and refuse to fight with Russian squads.
In the same way, the start of the implementation of the Barbarossa plan, long prepared by the German General Staff, was absolutely independent of the opening of Tamerlane's tomb in Samarkand.
But what were the results of the work of all kinds of Pythia, Augurs, Haruspics, Magi, astrologers and other "magicians"?
Since this article is intended specifically for the “Military Review”, we will not talk about the prophecies received by “civilians”, even if they are very famous and famous. We confine ourselves to people related to politics and military affairs. And we will give some recommendations to those of the readers who, perhaps, someday want to set foot on the thorny road of the prophets. Let's try to remove some of the most weighty “cobblestones” from this road.
Specialty selection
First of all, you need to decide on a specialty. Try to choose one so that at least it is not very difficult to maintain a serious facial expression when performing professional duties.
After all, you probably read about the ancient Roman priests, who interpreted the will of the gods in flight and the cries of birds, and you know that they were called augurs. Have you ever heard the expression "Augur smile"? This phrase was made popular by Mark Thulius Cicero, who wrote in his book “About Fortune-telling” that, having deceived the simpletons of the augurs who deceived in such unpretentious ways, when meeting with their colleagues they could hardly help laughing.
In the novel by M. Lermontov “Hero of our time” (chapter “Princess Mary”) you can read:
And here is what is written on this subject in the "General History, processed by" Satyricon "":
It is also advisable to refrain from fortune telling on the internal organs of sacrificial animals: the people are now not so much in the Etruscan state and in the ancient Roman republic, flimsy, nervous and impressionable: some lady will faint when you like her haruspex, the liver is killed on her You will show the sheep’s eyes - why do you need these problems? Again hands in blood, no aesthetics.
Haruspex Priest Guessing Inside the Bull
The work of the Pythia will probably seem to some not too difficult and very promising.
That's just business: to find something that is vaguely reminiscent of a tripod, sit on it and, having previously chewed a bay leaf, inhale the “substances” (“treasured fumes” in the original source), retelling clients their “cartoons”. And let them figure out exactly what Heaven wanted to say. But such classes are harmful to health, and they can take a “seer” salon for drug trafficking. The same applies to some shamanistic practices associated with the use of a certain variety of mushrooms.
But astrologers who are trying to make individual predictions on such a shaky basis as the movement of planets and stars infinitely far from the Earth, are still thriving. They are not at all embarrassed that the world is full of people who were born or were conceived at the same hour and even a minute - and not one of them, for some reason, repeats the fate of the other.
In 1958, a curious experiment was conducted comparing the fate of the “astrological twins”, in which professional astrologer Jeffrey Dean took part. Astrological charts of more than two thousand people born at one time were compared with their character, state of health, abilities and chosen profession, marital status and some other parameters. No significant coincidences between their fates of the twins were revealed.
In 1971, a study was conducted at the University of Michigan, USA, to verify the well-known position on the compatibility (or incompatibility) of spouses born under different signs of the zodiac. The birth data of men and women in 3500 pairs were collected. Several professional astrologers, independently of each other, were asked to “guess” which of these marriages were happy, which ones ended in divorce. Almost all the conclusions of astrologers were false.
The only study in which the stars “failed” astrologers was conducted in the 50s of the 2th century by Michel Gauquelin, who stated that his analysis of the performance of more than XNUMX thousand athletes revealed that the best of them were born in a certain position of Mars. In a second study of the astrological charts of the same people by independent experts, the results of the experiment were disproved, and Goklen was accused of manipulating the facts. This circumstance does not prevent astrology fans from ever referring to his experiment.
Recently, all kinds of sorcerers, numerologists, fortune-tellers on Tarot cards and other little-esteemed people have also perked up. By the way, those who use “magic” balls can firmly believe in their predictions: with a long peering at them, a person with a rich imagination can do anything.
Wording choice
The second obligatory rule of a novice soothsayer is the ambiguity and maximum nebula of his predictions. The works of Greek and Roman historians are filled with tales of favorable, at first glance, prophecies received by kings, generals and heroes, and explanations of why these prophecies were not fulfilled or were fulfilled exactly the opposite. Yes, and W. Churchill once said:
Notice that Sir Winston placed the politicians on a par with the haruspex and augurs. And therefore, do not take seriously their speeches or their promises.
Churchill smiling cunningly here knew himself well, and therefore understood what the forecasts and promises of politicians are
The instructive story of Orvar Odd
Tales of misunderstood soothsayers are found not only among ancient authors. The Orvar-Odd Saga, for example, tells of a prediction by a Norman leader who looks suspiciously like our Prophetic Oleg.
Even in his youth, Orvara Odd, a certain prophetess Heydr predicted that he would live more than others, become a great warrior, accomplish many feats, become famous in distant lands, but die in his homeland because of the beloved horse of his adoptive father Ingiald. Do you think Odd began to jump to the ceiling with joy? You are mistaken, this young man was very offended by the witch, because death in battle was considered the best death for a Viking. He even hit her from an excess of feelings, and for this Ingiald had to pay Heydr a large virus. But Orvar didn’t care anyway. On the same night, he and the son of Ingiald Asmund killed an innocent horse (even his name is called Fax, that is, "Mane") and fled from the house.
Years passed, Orvar Odd became a great warrior, became famous, and then trouble came to the hero, from where no one expected - nostalgia tortured. Since this time he didn’t “get off”, but on a courtesy visit, he took very few soldiers with him - 80 people, but the best: veterans who had been tested in many battles, each of which cost a dozen. It was not worth taking more, so as not to scare the fellow countrymen, but it was also impossible to take less to such a respected person - they won’t understand. And Odd went with this small (but very fierce and terrible, for those who do not have due respect) retinue to his small homeland - the now abandoned settlement Beruriod on the island of Hrafnista (this is the north of Norway, the modern region of Halogaland).
You already guessed that he was stung by a snake crawling out of a horse’s skull there?
Why do we know about this story? Before his death, Orvar Odd divided his people into two parts: the first 40 people prepared a mound for him, the others listened and remembered the story of his life. Since there are no other versions of the death of this king, apparently, it will be necessary to admit that the Norwegian soldiers at that time had a good memory. And Scandinavian concepts of honor did not allow lying to self-respecting Vikings.
In the Novgorod First Annals, by the way, it says so about the death of Oleg the Prophet:
And is added:
And there were Oleg’s graves in Kiev - on Mount Shchekovitsa (as stated in The Tale of Bygone Years) and at the Zhidovsky Gate. You should not be surprised at this, because the "grave" in Russia was not called the burial itself, but the hill, which was poured to send trisens. Famous and respected people could have several “graves”: how many trisens, so many barrows.
But back to the soothsayer Heydr: couldn’t she tell Odd directly that not a living horse would destroy him, but a skull? Apparently not, corporate ethics did not allow. But the horses do not live as much as was predicted to you, dear Orvar Odd, or whatever they called you. And you didn’t have any reason to move a peacefully lying horse skull with a spear.
Pythia as an example to follow
Note that in ancient times, usually no one reproached the soothsayers for the ambiguity and impenetrable darkness of their predictions - they were not responsible for the stupidity of the client.
Here you need to learn from the Pythians, these were high-level professionals, and it was practically impossible to correctly understand them. The most famous example, of course, is the Lydian king Croesus, who did not understand that the kingdom that he would destroy in the event of war was not a stranger, but his own.
The Macedonian king Philip, who received such an oracle, turned out to be a great optimist.
He decided that the calf is Persia, which he will crush in the upcoming campaign. But, after Philip was killed by his own bodyguard Pausanias, it became clear to everyone that the oracle was misunderstood. And who is to blame? It is clear that it is not Pythia. After all, another mystery - about the "silver spears" that should be used in the storming of cities, this king guessed.
Alexander the Great Method
The son of Philip Alexander was a smart man (it was not in vain that he studied with Aristotle) and therefore decided to determine for himself what is a prophecy and what is not.
In 334 BC e., before going to the Persians, he traditionally arrived at Delphi, but got there on the so-called ill-fated days, when the Pythia did not give prophecies: they lost their "astral connection" with Apollon. Great things awaited Alexander, so he himself had no time to wait. For this, you must admit, a very good and respectful reason, he simply took the Pythia “in an armful” and dragged it to the tripod. The indignant priestess inadvertently said: “Yes, you are invincible, my son!”
These words, as the prophecy of Alexander, were quite satisfied - he did not want to hear others.
Andre Castaigne. Alexander the Great and the Pythia
In the winter of 334/333 BC e., in the glorious Phrygian city of Gordion, Alexander saw in the local temple a golden chariot, which, according to legend, was installed there 500 years ago by King Midas, son of Gordia.
Guess why the chariot, which, according to legend, was previously wooden, became gold? And why did this Midas have “such big ears” (donkeys), too, remember?
The belts of this chariot were connected by a very complex knot of dogwood bast - so that you could not even find the ends. And the prophecy to Alexander was very necessary: if you untie the knot - get all of Asia. Alexander solved the problem with the help of the sword - not entirely honest, of course, but who would dare to tell him about this? Let the other disciples of Aristotle upset. "Counted and played."
Jean-Simon Barthelemy. Alexander the Great cuts the Gordian knot, a painting painted in 1767
"Nothing personal"
The third rule of a successful soothsayer is to avoid predicting your own fate, because those in power may have a bad desire to test your qualifications. For example, in 1071 in Novgorod, a certain magician, a rebel people, the sorcerer, announced to the head of the local administration (Prince Gleb Svyatoslavich, Oleg’s “Gorislavich’s brother”) that he “knew everything.” Further events in The Tale of Bygone Years are described as follows:
“I will create great miracles,” he said.
Gleb, having taken out the ax, cut the wizard, and he fell dead. ”
And if a direct question follows and it is impossible to get away from it, follow the example of the resourceful astrologer of the French king Louis XI. This astrologer inadvertently predicted an imminent death of the favorite of King Margarita de Sassenage (grandmother of the famous Diana de Poitiers), and she suddenly, in fact, died after 2 weeks.
Margarita de Sassenage
For some reason, Louis did not appreciate the efforts of the astrologer, and decided to execute him far from sin - all of a sudden, he would drive some metress with his predictions into the coffin. But he wanted to do it “beautifully”, disgracing him in the end - he asked: did you know, oh wise one, how much life did you have left for yourself? The astrologer realized what was happening and answered: “Sire, the stars revealed to me that I would die three days earlier than you.”
For some reason, the king did not want to check this prediction.
Jean Leonard de Lugardon. Louis XI roi de France
King Louis XI, nicknamed Prudent, Cautious and Spider, the hero of the novels Quentin Dorward (Walter Scott) and Notre Dame de Paris (Victor Hugo)
“Set the desired date yourself”
The next rule is no binding to specific dates. Here, as an example, we can cite the famous quatrain of Michel Nostradamus:
A large commander surrounded the enemy.
Silenced in the distance by a volley of guns,
Soldiers are not afraid of blue snow. ”
You understand that the cunning Frenchman did not risk anything: someday, if not after a hundred years, then after two hundred or three hundred, some commander will necessarily lead his army through the Alps. And the necessary quatrain - here it is, has long been lying, the hero is waiting. And when Nostradamus tried to indicate the date (14 quatrains contain an indication of the time of the fulfillment of the prophecy), the percentage of hits turned out to be zero. Here is the most famous example of the fiasco of the advertised prophet:
The great King of horror / terror / will come from heaven,
He will resurrect the great King of Angouleme.
Before and after Mars will reign happily. "
Nothing terrible happened in July 1999, as we know.
The prediction about the “Russians and Muslims” attack on Western Europe between 1982 and 1988 did not come true. Another quatrain reported that at the end of the sixth month of 2006, the king of Spain would cross the Pyrenees with his army. His legions will win the battle in the center of Europe and return the Holy Grail.
It was impossible to expect anything like this from the King of Spain, Juan Carlos I, so we decided that we were talking about predicting the victory of the Spanish national team at the World Cup. Alas, the “Roch Fury” failed both Nostradamus and their fans - she lost the French team in the 1/8 finals with a score of 1-3.
Currently, it is estimated that out of 449 Nostradamus predictions, 18 are clearly incorrect, 41 can be considered fulfilled, 390 - it is still impossible to identify with any event. Only 9% of guessing - the result is simply insignificant.
Centuries of Nostradamus. 1568 edition
The son of Nostradamus, also an astrologer, stepped on the same "rake", indicating the exact date of the fire in the city of Pusen. When I saw that nothing lights up on the indicated date, I decided that the stars needed to be “helped” and tried to set this city on fire, for which it was executed in 1575.
In the XNUMXth century, another famous scientist lived in Italy - the doctor and mathematician Gerolamo Cardano.
He was the first to publish a picture of the articulated mechanism (later called the driveshaft), and they claim that he even realized this mechanism in 1541 when he proposed to equip the carriage of the Spanish King Charles V entering Milan with a suspension of two interconnected shafts. He also became the author of the code lock idea, invented an encryption device known as the Cardano Lattice, left the first detailed description of typhoid fever and suggested that living creatures that are invisible due to their small size are the cause of infectious diseases. He also "dabbled" in astrology and somehow ventured to make a horoscope of Jesus Christ, for which he ended up in prison, where he spent several months. To the English king Edward VI (who became the hero of the novel by M. Twain “The Prince and the Pauper”), he predicted life by duty, and he took and died after 9 months. Well, he also did not deprive himself of prediction. According to legend, when he felt that he was not going to die on the indicated day of death, he committed suicide. In fact, Cardano did not try to “help the stars” and calmly lived for another three years.
In the next article, we will talk about various dates of the "end of the world", false predictions of famous and great people, and give some more valuable advice to future prophets and seers.
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