Norman Four Summit. Zelensky as a successor of Poroshenko’s policy
The summit of the Norman Four has put everything in its place, the positions of the parties are clearly defined and we can talk about the possible contours of the prospects for the implementation of the Minsk agreements. Of the two blocks of issues stipulated by the agreements (ceasefire and the reintegration of Donbass into Ukraine), none have been resolved. Ukraine is fundamentally against their resolution. The summit ended with the signing of a final communiqué confirming the inviolability of the Minsk agreements adopted in February 2015. No breakthrough successes, as predicted, was achieved.
The interests of the parties at the summit
Only Zelensky insisted on the need for a summit for several months, hoping with the support of Europeans to achieve a revision of the agreements. Putin said the meeting could take place if the parties had something to discuss. Merkel and Macron nevertheless convinced Putin of the need for a meeting, setting out general requirements for a separation of forces and assets at three points, signing the Steinmeier formula and preliminary agreeing on the final document of the meeting. No matter how Zelensky tried to get away from fulfilling these conditions, he had to do it, and the meeting took place.
In spite of all attempts to convince the participants of the summit, Zelensky did not solve his main task of revising the agreements. The confrontation between Moscow and Kiev ended in favor of Moscow, Zelensky’s attempts to revise the Minsk agreements were harshly suppressed by Putin. At the same time, Merkel in her speech did not exclude the possibility of partial changes and clarifications, to which Putin replied rather sharply that most of the clauses of the agreements are clearly stated and do not allow their ambiguous interpretation, there are some unclearly stated points, and only they can be clarified.
A distinctive feature of the Ukrainian delegation was the presence in it of all the security forces: Avakov, Khomchak and Bakanov, while they did not participate in any of the summit meetings. The most likely version of their presence is the fear of Zelensky making a coup by their hands while he is in Paris. If Khomchak and Bakanov were silent and did not show themselves, Avakov distinguished himself by actively distributing interviews on the sidelines of the summit. He insulted the Russian delegation, argued that it was impossible to give special status to Donbass, immediately transferred control of the border to Ukraine, and impudently declared that the Armed Forces of Ukraine could not be withdrawn due to the loss of important areas captured by them in the gray zone.
He played his role as a counterweight to Zelensky well and emphasized that Ukraine does not seek to implement the agreements and opposes all points of principle. Zelensky also confirmed Avakov’s words at the final press conference, he said that the border should be transferred before the elections in Donbass, Donbass and Crimea are Ukrainian territories, and he will seek their return, he announced the withdrawal of all foreign armed groups from Donbass ( said that Donbass is a temporarily occupied territory) and about the impossibility of federalization of Ukraine and called the inhabitants of Donbass separatists. These provocative statements, intended for domestic consumption in Ukraine, emphasize the unwillingness and impossibility of the Ukrainian authorities to fulfill their obligations.
Provocative actions of the Ukrainian authorities
Having failed to implement any of his proposals at the summit, Zelensky nevertheless managed to satisfy the interests of the radicals, stating that he had not crossed the “red lines” that they drew for him, he promised the Europeans to extend the validity of the law that does not resolve the special status of Donbass, and satisfied he and the Americans, refusing to deploy troops on the entire front and retaining a military conflict on the border with Russia.
As predicted, the protests in Kiev against Zelensky and the statements of the radicals about a possible coup were one of the elements of the game in support of the irreconcilable position of the Ukrainian delegation at the summit and immediately stopped at the end of the summit.
At the summit Zelensky revealed his cards and all his previous statements lined up in a clear system of actions aimed at continuing the confrontation in the Donbass and breaking the Minsk agreements.
This was confirmed upon the return of the Ukrainian delegation to Kiev. Zelensky’s team went to the distortion of the signed text of the final communiqué and published the text with significant changes, suggesting a special status without changing the constitution. Gryzlov, the representative of Russia at the Minsk talks, was forced to declare that Russia would not allow any changes to the Minsk agreements.
In addition, the representative of Ukraine in the Tripartite Contact Group in Minsk Reznikov clearly not immediately announced on his own initiative that the Minsk agreements in the current version cannot provide a solution to the conflict in the Donbass, they need to be reviewed, and Ukraine is preparing for the next summit of the Fourth in March 2020 of the year proposals to amend the agreements.
What's next
The current government in Ukraine under the leadership of Zelensky has shown that it is not able to stop the confrontation in the country and does not strive for this. She cannot fulfill her commitments and achieve peace, call for order and force the laws to be enforced by radicals impudent from impunity. Moreover, the president’s team has practically no people who would strive for peace and normalization of relations with Russia.
The situation is aggravated by the fact that a significant part of society, under the influence of total propaganda, believes that the implementation of agreements is the surrender of Ukraine to Russia, and the world understands it as the final victory of Ukraine, which is impossible in principle.
Zelensky made his choice and became the successor of Poroshenko’s policy. In addition, he received US support. On the eve of the IMF summit, Ukraine allocated a loan of $ 5 billion to Ukraine, and after its implementation, the US Senate Foreign Affairs Committee approved a bill that recognizes Russia as a sponsor of terrorism and declares armed groups in the Donbas terrorist organizations. If such a law is adopted, Ukraine will have formal reasons to recognize the DPR and LPR as terrorist organizations and demand from the world community to intensify the fight against them.
The summit and the actions of Zelensky’s team upon its completion indicate that it is impossible to get intelligible actions from the Ukrainian authorities, and one can come to the conclusion that the steps of the Russian leadership are meaningless to admonish the Ukrainian authorities, they understand only power. It is necessary to change the approach in communicating with them, switch to offensive tactics, demand the immediate withdrawal of forces and means at the front, prohibit Nazi organizations, recognize the Russian language as the second state language, recognize Donbass’s right to self-determination. For Donbass, it is necessary to seek recognition of the international status and the presence of two Ukraine, unable to find common ground. We need new approaches to the situation in Ukraine and new formats for negotiating that can lead the conflict out of the impasse.
- Yuri Apukhtin
- yandex.ru
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