Military Review

Norman Four Summit. Zelensky as a successor of Poroshenko’s policy

47

The summit of the Norman Four has put everything in its place, the positions of the parties are clearly defined and we can talk about the possible contours of the prospects for the implementation of the Minsk agreements. Of the two blocks of issues stipulated by the agreements (ceasefire and the reintegration of Donbass into Ukraine), none have been resolved. Ukraine is fundamentally against their resolution. The summit ended with the signing of a final communiqué confirming the inviolability of the Minsk agreements adopted in February 2015. No breakthrough successes, as predicted, was achieved.


The interests of the parties at the summit


Only Zelensky insisted on the need for a summit for several months, hoping with the support of Europeans to achieve a revision of the agreements. Putin said the meeting could take place if the parties had something to discuss. Merkel and Macron nevertheless convinced Putin of the need for a meeting, setting out general requirements for a separation of forces and assets at three points, signing the Steinmeier formula and preliminary agreeing on the final document of the meeting. No matter how Zelensky tried to get away from fulfilling these conditions, he had to do it, and the meeting took place.

In spite of all attempts to convince the participants of the summit, Zelensky did not solve his main task of revising the agreements. The confrontation between Moscow and Kiev ended in favor of Moscow, Zelensky’s attempts to revise the Minsk agreements were harshly suppressed by Putin. At the same time, Merkel in her speech did not exclude the possibility of partial changes and clarifications, to which Putin replied rather sharply that most of the clauses of the agreements are clearly stated and do not allow their ambiguous interpretation, there are some unclearly stated points, and only they can be clarified.

A distinctive feature of the Ukrainian delegation was the presence in it of all the security forces: Avakov, Khomchak and Bakanov, while they did not participate in any of the summit meetings. The most likely version of their presence is the fear of Zelensky making a coup by their hands while he is in Paris. If Khomchak and Bakanov were silent and did not show themselves, Avakov distinguished himself by actively distributing interviews on the sidelines of the summit. He insulted the Russian delegation, argued that it was impossible to give special status to Donbass, immediately transferred control of the border to Ukraine, and impudently declared that the Armed Forces of Ukraine could not be withdrawn due to the loss of important areas captured by them in the gray zone.

He played his role as a counterweight to Zelensky well and emphasized that Ukraine does not seek to implement the agreements and opposes all points of principle. Zelensky also confirmed Avakov’s words at the final press conference, he said that the border should be transferred before the elections in Donbass, Donbass and Crimea are Ukrainian territories, and he will seek their return, he announced the withdrawal of all foreign armed groups from Donbass ( said that Donbass is a temporarily occupied territory) and about the impossibility of federalization of Ukraine and called the inhabitants of Donbass separatists. These provocative statements, intended for domestic consumption in Ukraine, emphasize the unwillingness and impossibility of the Ukrainian authorities to fulfill their obligations.

Provocative actions of the Ukrainian authorities


Having failed to implement any of his proposals at the summit, Zelensky nevertheless managed to satisfy the interests of the radicals, stating that he had not crossed the “red lines” that they drew for him, he promised the Europeans to extend the validity of the law that does not resolve the special status of Donbass, and satisfied he and the Americans, refusing to deploy troops on the entire front and retaining a military conflict on the border with Russia.

As predicted, the protests in Kiev against Zelensky and the statements of the radicals about a possible coup were one of the elements of the game in support of the irreconcilable position of the Ukrainian delegation at the summit and immediately stopped at the end of the summit.

At the summit Zelensky revealed his cards and all his previous statements lined up in a clear system of actions aimed at continuing the confrontation in the Donbass and breaking the Minsk agreements.

This was confirmed upon the return of the Ukrainian delegation to Kiev. Zelensky’s team went to the distortion of the signed text of the final communiqué and published the text with significant changes, suggesting a special status without changing the constitution. Gryzlov, the representative of Russia at the Minsk talks, was forced to declare that Russia would not allow any changes to the Minsk agreements.

In addition, the representative of Ukraine in the Tripartite Contact Group in Minsk Reznikov clearly not immediately announced on his own initiative that the Minsk agreements in the current version cannot provide a solution to the conflict in the Donbass, they need to be reviewed, and Ukraine is preparing for the next summit of the Fourth in March 2020 of the year proposals to amend the agreements.

What's next


The current government in Ukraine under the leadership of Zelensky has shown that it is not able to stop the confrontation in the country and does not strive for this. She cannot fulfill her commitments and achieve peace, call for order and force the laws to be enforced by radicals impudent from impunity. Moreover, the president’s team has practically no people who would strive for peace and normalization of relations with Russia.

The situation is aggravated by the fact that a significant part of society, under the influence of total propaganda, believes that the implementation of agreements is the surrender of Ukraine to Russia, and the world understands it as the final victory of Ukraine, which is impossible in principle.

Zelensky made his choice and became the successor of Poroshenko’s policy. In addition, he received US support. On the eve of the IMF summit, Ukraine allocated a loan of $ 5 billion to Ukraine, and after its implementation, the US Senate Foreign Affairs Committee approved a bill that recognizes Russia as a sponsor of terrorism and declares armed groups in the Donbas terrorist organizations. If such a law is adopted, Ukraine will have formal reasons to recognize the DPR and LPR as terrorist organizations and demand from the world community to intensify the fight against them.

The summit and the actions of Zelensky’s team upon its completion indicate that it is impossible to get intelligible actions from the Ukrainian authorities, and one can come to the conclusion that the steps of the Russian leadership are meaningless to admonish the Ukrainian authorities, they understand only power. It is necessary to change the approach in communicating with them, switch to offensive tactics, demand the immediate withdrawal of forces and means at the front, prohibit Nazi organizations, recognize the Russian language as the second state language, recognize Donbass’s right to self-determination. For Donbass, it is necessary to seek recognition of the international status and the presence of two Ukraine, unable to find common ground. We need new approaches to the situation in Ukraine and new formats for negotiating that can lead the conflict out of the impasse.
Author:
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47 comments
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  1. 210ox
    210ox 14 December 2019 15: 08
    +7
    Any negotiations with these "people" is an empty exercise. And that Ukraine no longer exists. There is a territorial entity. But our policy, as it was from the time of Pochinok, has remained the same. First we inflate our cheeks, and then we deflate.
    1. Proxima
      Proxima 14 December 2019 15: 39
      +8
      The Minsk agreements are undoubtedly the success of Russian diplomacy (special thanks to Lavrov hi) In the Agreements LDNR is registered as a party to the conflict, and therefore an equal party! What is Ze trying to do now? - right, trying to give LDNR the status of terrorist organizations, which goes against the Agreements. In a word, The Minsk agreements are a trap on the foot of Ukraine, crying from which she will never get rid! No.
      1. major147
        major147 14 December 2019 17: 45
        +7
        Quote: Proxima
        What is Ze trying to do now? - right, trying to give LDNR the status of terrorist organizations,

        Ze and the Americans can think anything and recognize anyone as anyone. But! "Minsk agreements" signed in addition to the outskirts of the LPR and also approved by the UN. Question. UN approved an agreement with "terrorists"?
        1. revnagan
          revnagan 14 December 2019 21: 46
          -2
          Quote: major147
          Question. UN approved an agreement with "terrorists"?

          If the status of LDNR changes, then the UN resolution changes. There are no unshakable things.
    2. Baloo
      Baloo 14 December 2019 16: 19
      -2
      Quote: 210ox
      Any negotiations with these "people" is an empty exercise. And that Ukraine no longer exists. There is a territorial entity. But our policy, as it was from the time of Pochinok, has remained the same.

      Politics Poroshenko? This is the policy of a group of U.S. congressmen, not prosenso and zyuzi.
      As for the politics of Russia, geopolitics, like medicine is the art of the possible. We are not given to know all the subtleties of this game. And if only a shooter and a certain Orthodox oligarch (for the protection of which he had served for some time), and if their role was not in an attempt to draw the RF Armed Forces into the territory of Ukraine?
      1. 210ox
        210ox 14 December 2019 18: 00
        +1
        The policy of Pochinok, Zurabov and others like them is "our" policy. Remember where they ended up putting it. No work with pro Russian forces, no attempt to negotiate with thieves and deceivers ..
    3. max.chipoletto
      max.chipoletto 14 December 2019 22: 50
      0
      with our people is not useless with the west hell
  2. janeck
    janeck 14 December 2019 15: 08
    +9
    on the part of Zelensky .. it was a "movement, for the sake of movement" and show himself and look at Putin. no one will allow him to, or in Ukraine .. decide something.
  3. Hunter 2
    Hunter 2 14 December 2019 15: 09
    +10
    Well, did someone believe that Zelensky would really stop the war? Duck and Petruccio - promised to stop the fighting in two weeks! During the election, making promises is one thing, and keeping them is another!
    Zelensky’s fate is unenviable, he will stumble a little - they will crush him! Poroshenko even had money ... and Zelensky became President - on credit!
    1. Pete mitchell
      Pete mitchell 17 December 2019 20: 34
      0
      Quote: Hunter 2
      Poroshenko even had money ...

      Dear, well, you can’t do this, you read the article carefully:
      On the eve of the IMF summit, Ukraine allocated a loan of $ 5 billion
      lol You do not think that everything to the last cent will go where it should. Where should you go?
  4. withoutreverse
    withoutreverse 14 December 2019 15: 11
    +9
    this jester wanted a Normandy summit. GDP did not allow reformatting to "95th quarter")
    1. tihonmarine
      tihonmarine 14 December 2019 15: 45
      +5
      Quote: withoutreverse
      this jester wanted a Normandy summit. GDP did not allow reformatting to "95th quarter")

      Yes, he probably thought that the Normandy summit was a gathering of "block 95" where Nrinloh tells stories to everyone, and the audience applauds and laughs. And then it turns out to be "face and about table", no luck poktsanu.
  5. The leader of the Redskins
    The leader of the Redskins 14 December 2019 15: 12
    +3
    (c) ".... And again there was a hassle about Romanian Bangladesh ..."
    V.S. Vysotsky.
    It has been almost a week since the summit passed. It seems that everyone voiced, everyone told what is possible. And analysts cannot calm down ....
    1. major147
      major147 14 December 2019 17: 47
      +3
      Quote: Leader of the Redskins
      (c) ".... And again there was a hassle about Romanian Bangladesh ..."
      V.S. Vysotsky.
      It has been almost a week since the summit passed. It seems that everyone voiced, everyone told what is possible. And analysts cannot calm down ....

      But the details and nuances will still float.
    2. revnagan
      revnagan 14 December 2019 21: 53
      -2
      Quote: Leader of the Redskins
      (c) ".... And again there was a hassle about Romanian Bangladesh ..."

      "... about the insidious abroad" hi . Maybe analysts have "ignition later"? Or are there admixtures of Estonian blood there? laughing
  6. xomaNN
    xomaNN 14 December 2019 15: 16
    +3
    As can be seen from the leaked rumors, the "Normandy Four" is real - this is the confrontation between Putin (+ Macron, playing along with him) and Ze! (+ Merkel, playing along with him). ...
    The question is what is the real goal of Russia in relation to the Donbass. (recognize the DPR, include in the Russian Federation, following the example of the Crimea, give to Ukraine crying ) And then you can evaluate who wins in the litter.
    1. janeck
      janeck 14 December 2019 15: 22
      +7
      Quote: xomaNN
      The question is what is the real goal of Russia in relation to the Donbass. (recognize the DPR, include in the Russian Federation, following the example of the Crimea, give to Ukraine


      you won’t be able to give, (the Russian people, and Donbass will not understand) you can recognize if the Ukrainians do not come to their senses .. who they are. and where did they get this state from.
      1. Kronos
        Kronos 14 December 2019 15: 24
        +1
        For example, people did not understand about raising the retirement age, but the government did not stop it.
        1. Xnumx vis
          Xnumx vis 14 December 2019 20: 56
          0
          Here will be the contempt of the people in the highest authority of Russia! Complete and merciless contempt ... They cannot justify themselves ... But contempt threatens with excitement and decay.
      2. tihonmarine
        tihonmarine 14 December 2019 15: 42
        +2
        Quote: Janek
        give will not work, (the people of Russia, and Donbass will not understand) you can recognize

        And it will not work to give, and recognition will not work. So they will not be recognized, but this is not a bad option, but the slaughter must be stopped, although all international organizations protect cats and dogs, and the Lao PDR people simply do not notice.
  7. Alien From
    Alien From 14 December 2019 15: 21
    +3
    Yes, from the side of the non-brothers, you don’t have to wait for the good ..... until you get it on the forelocks, you’ll not calm down!
    1. janeck
      janeck 14 December 2019 15: 25
      +7
      lack of mind .. this is not a lack of mind, but such a mindset.
      -This is relative to some rulers in the post-Soviet space.
    2. Lelek
      Lelek 14 December 2019 17: 26
      +3
      Quote: Alien From
      Yes, from the side of the non-brothers, one does not have to expect good.

      hi
      5 days after the summit in Paris, and the APU (not otherwise than with the "good" of the supreme comedian) are returning to their former positions in the "gray zone". Your move, Vladimir Vladimirovich.
  8. knn54
    knn54 14 December 2019 15: 24
    +7
    They chose Goloborodko, but got ... "Poroshenko".
    1. tihonmarine
      tihonmarine 14 December 2019 15: 38
      +3
      Quote: knn54
      They chose Goloborodko, but got ... "Poroshenko".

      Powder Nephew, or clone.
    2. Baloo
      Baloo 14 December 2019 18: 05
      +4
      Quote: knn54
      They chose Goloborodko, but got ... "Poroshenko".

      It turned out popandopolo
      1. SASHA OLD
        SASHA OLD 14 December 2019 18: 21
        +3
        Quote: Balu
        It turned out popandopolo

  9. onix757
    onix757 14 December 2019 15: 27
    0
    The absence of comments under the articles on the topic "Ukraine" (with the exception of those on duty) indicates a lack of confidence in the authorities.
  10. tihonmarine
    tihonmarine 14 December 2019 15: 36
    +2
    Of the two blocks of issues stipulated by the agreements (ceasefire and the reintegration of Donbass into Ukraine), none have been resolved. Ukraine is fundamentally against their resolution.
    Well, we never doubted that the negotiations would give a positive result. Whether it's Poroshenko, Zelensky or anyone else, "the sum does not change from the rearrangement of the terms." Ukraine does not need peace, and they will not let this peace be established. Peace is needed only by the people of Donbas, they do not need a war. And this swing back and forth under Zelensky's rule will not end. We will wait for new elections.
    1. parusnik
      parusnik 14 December 2019 16: 30
      +3
      We will wait for new elections
      ... So it will be the same ...
      "the sum does not change from the permutation of the terms."
      1. tihonmarine
        tihonmarine 14 December 2019 16: 54
        +1
        Quote: parusnik
        So it will be the same ...

        And who doubts this?
      2. Revival
        Revival 14 December 2019 19: 56
        0
        And we again "We will wait for new elections.")))
    2. Lelek
      Lelek 14 December 2019 17: 36
      +4
      Quote: tihonmarine
      Be it Poroshenko, Zelensky or someone else

      hi
      It turns out a strange thing: a case of treason is being initiated against Waltzman for signing the "Minsk", the inviolability of which was confirmed in Paris by Hetman Ze, against whom it is also necessary to initiate (logically) a case of treason. This is only possible with potheads. Even insects would not have thought of that.
  11. parusnik
    parusnik 14 December 2019 15: 37
    +6
    Sorry, dear author, but the article is full of previously written truths ... Absolutely nothing new ... And that's right, you all write ... But, improving the situation in Ukraine is not possible without the active support of the position of Russia, from the "guarantors" Minsk agreements, France and Germany, without their economic and political pressure on Ukraine, but they are not going to do this ... They have their own interests in this country, since 1918 ... And their own interests are more important ... By the way, the EU still Crimean sanctions against Russia were extended for six months, including the guarantors ... And it happened, it was literally after the Paris summit. Coincidence? I don't think (c)
    1. tihonmarine
      tihonmarine 14 December 2019 16: 57
      +2
      Quote: parusnik
      on the part of the "guarantors" of the Minsk agreements, France and Germany, without their economic and political pressure on Ukraine, but they are not going to do this ... They have their own interests in this country since 1918 ... And their interests are more important ...

      As soon as the turmoil began in Little Russia, "our shoots ripened everywhere." They grabbed like ticks at the withers of a cow, and will not unhook themselves.
      1. Lelek
        Lelek 14 December 2019 17: 48
        +2
        Quote: tihonmarine
        They grabbed like ticks at the withers of a cow, and they themselves did not detach.

        hi
        Western "guarantors" today are interested in the former Ukraine only from a selfish position, so that the supply of Russian gas to "Europe" does not stop. They perfectly understand the unreliability and theft of the transit agent, so they pat him on the shoulder and wink, while making a big mistake, extending sanctions against Russia, expelling embassy workers and wagging their tails in front of the United States. They do not understand the main thing - Russia can do without the EU, but whether the EU can do without Russia is a big question.
  12. Vladimir M
    Vladimir M 14 December 2019 16: 03
    +4
    Firstly, you need to understand that Vova Zelensky got into this presidency. Why did he need it? He made people laugh and earned money, which is typical for any government. I was led by Benny's persuasion, won the presidency and ... got. Vova now has only two ways, or he will let the Natsiks under the knife or they will. The claim that Avakov was at the summit to keep an eye on Zelensky is an excuse for the Nazis. None of the serious people with Avakov would simply not talk. It looks like some kind of "third assistant" Merkel or Macron lucid explained that it was time to put the Nazis under the knife. This is evidenced by the fact that the ATOs and volunteers in the case of Sheremet's murder began to be closed. Although, for the sake of justice, it is worth admitting that under Poroshenko, ATOs were also closed and shot, but the truth is that the insane were removed.
  13. Tomich3
    Tomich3 14 December 2019 16: 50
    +2
    All these meetings of the "Norman Four" are for fools, which always end with the signing of meaningless documents. The uncontrolled borders of the DPR and LPR are uncontrolled trade in weapons, drugs, alcohol, cigarettes, coal, "cashing" money and so on for a narrow circle of confidants. Even Lukashenko closed the border with Ukraine because of the flow of weapons))).
  14. tihonmarine
    tihonmarine 14 December 2019 17: 04
    +1
    Quote: Vladimir M
    What the hell was that for? He amused people and earned money, which is typical of any government.

    Well, he will always return to "block 95" or to another block. So they promised well, and as a clever hade, of course, he received an advance. And then for the rest of his life he will have a prefix to the name "Former President". Just imagine somewhere on the "party" where the suckers are represented "Former President Zelensky". Sounds! The truth of which country will keep silent for his own good.
  15. samarin1969
    samarin1969 14 December 2019 17: 06
    +5
    For all parties (stern of the people of Donbass), the purpose of the negotiations is to "play for time." Therefore, it would be a surprise to expect something from the "Normans".
  16. tracer
    tracer 14 December 2019 17: 09
    +1
    They will climb to Donbass. Everything goes to this. Even "prezik" is who "did not want" this and Avakov is at a low start. And they are preparing for battles in the city. Heavy vehicles were driven up. Kiev idiots have nothing to lose, nothing, neither money nor time. Otherwise, weapons will be deployed against them. The same army. The scenario of drawing Rossi into the conflict is the most acceptable one. I think that it was calculated by those who are supposed to calculate it.
  17. Aliken
    Aliken 14 December 2019 17: 52
    +2
    Everything is simple here. Zelensky is elementary afraid for his life, his family, he realized that he was surrounded by scumbags with Avakov at the head.
  18. RoTTor
    RoTTor 14 December 2019 19: 03
    +1
    Wasted time:
    1. There is no subject for negotiations without the DNI and LC.
    2. Zelensky, who does not control either the country, or his "party" and its scandalous grunt in a parody of parliament, or even the sidewalk at his windows, is NOT CONTRACTUAL

    Nothing depends on the last president of the country with the talking number "six" falling apart before our eyes.
    From Germany and, especially, from France, almost nothing.
    Do they need it? - His problems are head over heels!
    From the Russian Federation, DNI and LC! - ALL !

    1. Donbass will never return
    2. Donbass can gather around itself a healthy part of the country
    3. The return of Donbass = the end of anti-Russia. semi-fascist. state woo
    4. Kiev is afraid of the world as hell incense, what can be attributed to the whole collapse, psychosis and theft?
    5 "patriots" dream of getting political asylum in the United States



    What if the "strange war without fighting" stops? - where to put this horde with millions of trunks and grenades?
    And therefore, too, do not finish.
    Much divorced, only dust.
  19. iouris
    iouris 14 December 2019 20: 13
    0
    Any Ze in this position will be the "successor of the policy" of Washington. Washington's goal is to weaken Europe. "Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok" can do nothing.
    1. Chaldon48
      Chaldon48 15 December 2019 04: 52
      0
      This whole talking shop reminds me of Krylov's fable about Vaska the cat: "Vaska listens and eats!", You need to beat this cat and beat it cruelly, but I think the top decided that the appointed hour had not yet come.
  20. Sadam
    Sadam 14 December 2019 20: 18
    +1
    some kind of one-sided review did you get. moderate ukrosis took it into account as Zeli's victory - he managed to weave it and did not confirm a single thesis on which they had previously agreed ... Putin was nervous the people himself were more gloomy than ever, although I write off VADA for the ripened news ... there’s probably no more Normandy It will be - everyone hears only himself - some rested brazenly threw ... although right now the movement in Kiev with these accusations and atoshnikov if all this Makhnovism is driven under the bench ...
    but Zelia, as without soap, turns out ... well, how the winter will pass and how they will solve it with gas
  21. Ren
    Ren 16 December 2019 09: 36
    0
    Briefly about the summit in Paris:
    Putin: And we have gas in Yamal!
    Zelensky: And we have a gas pipeline, here!
    Macron: And from our window - the Eiffel Tower is visible!
    Merkel: And from our window - only the Baltic a little ...
    And also the gas pipeline, it will be soon - that's about it!