474 Bulgarian kilometers. The gas pipe weld is not simple, but golden
Bulgarian transit with a Ukrainian accent
It is not easy to assess in which direction of gas transit Russia has more difficulties: northern, southern, or just in Ukrainian. The Danish rebus seems to have decided the Nord Stream, but it is not clear yet whether the Turkish Stream will deal with the Bulgarian demarche.
Recent ones news from Sofia are encouraging, and it seems that it’s not just that the Russian president has already made it clear to Bulgaria that this could bypass. And the Bulgarian prime minister even managed to answer that Russia has no alternative to Bulgaria.
The direct intervention of Vladimir Putin shows that everything is not easy. The dispute is clearly protracted, although the cessation of Ukrainian transit is getting closer and more likely. And unfortunately, the case clearly will not do without direct or indirect intervention of the American pragmatist from the White House - Donald Trump. Russia and Gazprom have already received the next batch of sanctions for the Nord Stream, and now, it seems, the Turkish Stream has also been put in the queue for sanctions.
There is one hero in Bulgarian literature, which many “brothers” do not like, about the same as the Czechs of the brave soldier Schweik. He came from the pen of the unforgettable Aleko Konstantinov and his name is Bai Ganyu. Rustic and fisted, but an economic provincial, as they say, on his mind. Somewhere, he can get into a mess, but he will never miss his own benefits, albeit miserable.
In anticipation of the hour X, when Ukraine will most likely block the Russian gas valve on January 1, the Bulgarian partners of the Russian Gazprom have clearly re-read the adventures of Bai Ganyu. What is even worth the accession of Bulgaria to the Trans-Balkan pipeline, through which blue fuel flows from Russia to Turkey. Through Ukraine. And if gas is cut off in Kiev, then it can be delivered to Sofia by reverse from the Turkish Stream.
The situation became especially acute when it became clear that with the launch of the Turkish Stream of the first, or, as Turkish President R. Erdogan stated, on January 8 of 2020, Bulgaria automatically ceases to be a transit of Russian gas. Currently, gas from the Russian Federation to Turkey is supplied through Ukraine, Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria via the very Trans-Balkan corridor. But the need for such supplies disappears - Ankara will receive Russian gas through the Turkish Stream.
The Bulgarians have already managed to calculate their losses from this - it turned out 110 million dollars. But, most likely, now the Bulgarian officials do not consider the losses, but simply rub their hands in pleasure due to their clever combination. Well, they say, they stayed with gas, and outwitted the Russian monopolist. After all, he will also have to do something with Hungary and Serbia, which have been much more loyal to Russia for the past ten years.
And all this after being able to cut the "Danish" node on the "Nord Stream 2". However, it would be very useful for the heirs of Bai Gan to recall that the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline with a final point in Baumgarten, Austria, remains unfinished. What is its fundamental difference from the Turkish Stream and the modest Trans-Balkan corridor.
Without looking at Turkey
The agreement that Moscow and Ankara will refuse supplies along the Trans-Balkan corridor as soon as the Turkish Stream is launched was reached back in 2017. And no one made a secret of her. Of its two branches, one supplies gas directly to Turkey, and the other in transit through this country to southern Europe.
How the second branch will go, they discussed for a very long time, and in the end the choice fell on Bulgaria, but, apparently, this was a mistake. Although Sofia can simply bargain, not only with Moscow and Ankara, but also with Washington, it’s not for nothing that Prime Minister Boyko Borisov flew there so quickly. Obviously, he asked how Sofia could be punished for participating in the Turkish Stream.
In the situation in the south, Gazprom does not have such powerful allies as in the north. But to supply gas in the direction of Budapest and Belgrade is somehow necessary. It is difficult to understand why Russia so long pulled with an ultimatum against Bulgaria, but, nevertheless, the threat finally sounded, and from the lips of the Russian president himself. Apparently, it was postponed only with the expectation of a more accommodating Ukrainian president.
The calculation did not materialize, but perhaps only for now. The gas war with Ukraine has practically not stopped since the collapse of the USSR and may well be longer than the Centennial. Every year it draws into the sphere of influence more and more countries, and for a long time not only European ones.
Maybe only Southeast Asia can still afford the luxury of not noticing the “Ukrainian syndrome,” although the “Power of Siberia” suggests that this is not entirely true. More precisely, not at all like that. Media in the West now regularly reminds that Russia is trying to use not only the weakness of Ukraine, but also Ankara’s divorce from Washington. At the same time, it is somehow forgotten that in the first place there is pure pragmatics.
In the case of the Ukrainian “no,” something needs to be done, since Russia is not the first time to receive a blow from Bulgaria below the belt. Once, in the 90 years, in the seaside Bulgarian Burgas, the Russian Lukoil seriously built up a powerful oil refinery there, but this did not help at all in resolving the crisis with the Burgas-Alexandroupolis oil pipeline (Bulgaria - northern Greece).
Oil in the pipeline was supposed to come from Novorossiysk, and it could unload the Turkish straits under Turkish control. This pipe did not work out just because of excessive requests from Bulgaria, as well as later with the gas "South Stream", which Moscow simply had to refuse.
Then even Greece made an indiscreet offer to Gazprom to extend the pipeline from Turkey through its territory, and then to Italy. However, at that moment Russia was just beginning to establish business oil and gas relations with Turkey, and Gazprom could not accept such an offer.
Today, the Turkish Stream is not enough to complete only 500 with a few kilometers, of which 474 pass through the territory of Bulgaria. The Balkan gas pipeline was to be built by the Italian-Saudi consortium Arcade, chosen as if deliberately in defiance of the Russian Gazprom. As you might expect, he openly failed the project, which was facilitated by the Bulgarians, who arranged a five-month showdown with rival Arcade.
At the same time, that very prime minister, Boyko Borisov, was shamelessly referring to the EU standards, because of which, in fact, many Gazprom projects were inhibited. He himself hastened to a rendezvous with US President Donald Trump for consultations, among other things, on the energy issue.
By the way, the same EU rules have repeatedly poked the Russian gas monopoly in the eye about another ambitious project - the Nord Stream. However, the Russian “Gazprom” ignored the last Danish “comma” with the direct participation of the European energy giants.
It so happened that the precedent did not work out. It turned out to only slightly slow down the implementation of the project. Now, the same thing can happen with the Turkish Stream, although in the allies of Gazprom, there remain mainly Turkish firms there. In the south, Gazprom has few arguments such as in the dispute with Denmark, but there are more alternative routes than in the case of the Danish Nord Stream 2 veto.
And as it became known literally the day before, almost the ultimatum of the Russian president worked without delay. The Executive Director of Bulgartransgaz, Vladimir Malinov, said that starting from January 1 of January 2020, Bulgaria will be able to provide transit gas supplies to Greece and Macedonia from the Turkish Stream. According to Malinov, on November 30, Turkey made a “golden” weld seam connecting the Turkish Stream with the Balkan Stream, which is located in Bulgaria.
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