Manned race: US projects against the Russian "Union"
Since 2011, the United States has not had its own manned spacecraft, allowing astronauts to be delivered to the ISS. For several years, work continues on the creation of the required equipment, and in the near future the first flights with people on board are expected. It is assumed that the Starliner products from Boeing and Dragon 2 from SpaceX will seriously compete with the Russian Soyuz and reduce its share in manned space exploration. However, such plans may seem overly optimistic for now.
Big plans
Recall that the development of new space technology started at the beginning of the current decade and was carried out as part of the NASA Commercial Crew Transportation Capability (CCDev, later CCtCap) program. Initially, several companies participated in the program, but only the Boeing and SpaceX projects - CST-100 Starliner and Dragon 2, respectively, entered the final stage.
According to initial plans, the Boeing Starliner trials were to begin in 2015, and by the end of the decade, the ship could go into operation. SpaceX's plans were similar. Her "Dragon-2" was supposed to fly to the ISS in the second half of the decade and then begin to transport astronauts.
However, the technical requirements for the projects, the need to master new solutions and technologies, as well as a number of other factors led to a serious revision of the work schedules. At the moment, only one test flight has been completed on two projects, with no crew on board. Manned flights, according to current plans, will begin only in the spring of 2020.
In mid-November, the Office of the Inspector General of NASA (NASA OIG) published a report on the current status of work on CCtCAP. According to one of the conclusions of this document, the first manned launches of new ships will be postponed until next summer.
Plans for the Starliner
The schedule of work on the Boeing project was repeatedly adjusted, and the deadlines for the implementation of certain stages were constantly shifted to the right. For example, in the middle of last year, unmanned and manned flights were planned for April and August of 2019. However, in these terms, only a few tests were completed.
To date, the Boeing has found the causes of last year's accidents and recycled the ship. At the beginning of November, tests of the rescue system were recognized as successful. Work is ongoing, preparations are underway for new tests.
The start of the Boe-OFT-19 mission is scheduled for December 1. The Starliner device in an unmanned configuration is planned to be put into orbit and returned to Earth in eight days. In the first half of next year, a Boe-CTF flight with astronauts to the ISS will take place. Its exact date remains unknown.
In the CCtCAP program, not only terms are of great importance, but also the cost of putting the cargo into orbit. Starliner can take on board up to seven people. According to the NASA OIG report, the cost of one seat for an astronaut can vary widely enough depending on various factors. In particular, the number of jobs will affect it. The average flight cost per astronaut will be at the level of 90 million US dollars.
Success of the Dragon
The project Dragon 2 or Crew Dragon from Space X started a little later than Starliner, but has already bypassed it. To date, the bulk of the development work has been completed. Moreover, this year the first flight in an unmanned configuration took place. Various works are now being carried out, designed to provide the first manned mission.
However, SpaceX also repeatedly faced various difficulties and repeatedly revised the work schedule. In particular, test runs with load and people were repeatedly postponed. There were also technical difficulties and accidents. For example, on 20 on August 2019, the first Dragon 2, which previously flew into space, exploded during ground tests.
SpX-DM1 unmanned flight began on 2 on March 2019. A few hours after takeoff, the ship docked to the ISS. 8 March, the device returned to Earth. The total duration of the mission is a little less than 5 days. In December, a test launch should be held with a check of the operation of the rescue system. This event will be carried out automatically.
The first manned flight SpX-DM2 was planned by the development company for the 1 quarter of 2020. The NASA Inspector General's Office considers such plans unrealistic and expects launch only in the summer. Next year, SpaceX is going to carry out the following Dragon 2 flights with cargo and people.
Depending on the configuration, Crew Dragon must transport up to 4 or up to 7 people or 3-6 tons. According to NASA OIG estimates, the average cost of one seat on such a ship will be 55 million dollars.
Against the background of the "Union"
Since 2011, NASA has been sending astronauts to the ISS using Russian Soyuz spacecraft, and this practice will take place before the creation and commissioning of its own new developments. Over the past few years, the timing of abandonment of the Unions has been repeatedly shifted in accordance with the change of schedules for CCDev / CCtCap. In recent months, loud statements have been made again about the imminent abandonment of Russian technology, but the real situation looks different.
According to a recent report by the Office of the Inspector General, from 2006 to the present day, NASA has acquired 70 spaceships from Roscosmos. They spent 3,9 billion dollars on this. Places cost from 21 to 86 million with an average of 55 million dollars. Negotiations are underway to purchase two more seats in the coming period. The appearance of this order is openly associated with a breakdown in the deadlines of their own projects.
In March of this year, against the backdrop of American trials, the leadership of Roscosmos revealed its opinion on current events. In particular, it was argued that the cost of space on the Soyuz within 80 million dollars allows you to compete with foreign ships. In addition, US companies do not have the opportunity for dumping.
After the start of operation of Starliner and Crew Dragon products, Roscosmos plans to switch to barter. NASA will be able to reserve seats at the Soyuz in exchange for the Starliner and Dragon seats. Such cooperation may be carried out without taking into account the cost of services, but will remain mutually beneficial.
Waiting for the "Federation"
In the foreseeable future, the current “Unions” will be replaced by the promising manned ship “Federation” / “Eagle”. To date, part of the work on this topic has been completed. Last spring, the beginning of the construction of the first flight model was reported. Necessary research and testing is underway.
Due to objective difficulties, the work schedule was repeatedly adjusted. Unmanned flight tests were originally planned to be carried out in 2017. To date, they have been transferred to the 2023. After that, a flight with the crew will take place. By the end of the next decade, the organization of the first missions with a flyby of the moon is possible.
The transport version of the "Federation" will be able to carry up to 2 tons of payload. A manned ship will be able to deliver to the ISS or to another target up to 4 people. The cost of space for an astronaut or a kilogram of cargo is still unknown.
Manned race
Thus, to date, a curious situation has developed in the field of manned space exploration. Only Russia in the person of Roscosmos has a spaceship that has long been in operation. The United States temporarily does not have such a technique, but is already working on a solution to this problem. Now the United States is in the position of catching up. Their projects started quite late, and in addition, they faced a lot of problems. As a result, the completion dates had to be postponed several times, and real samples are still missing.
However, the situation is changing, and next year Boeing and SpaceX will send people into orbit. In addition, advanced ideas are laid and implemented in their projects, due to which it is planned to ensure the growth of basic characteristics and create a foundation for the future. There is a risk that in the foreseeable future, Soyuz will already be lagging behind.
Including for this reason, we are creating a multi-purpose ship of the next generation. "Federation" will go into operation a few years after the American models and is likely to again provide an advantage over foreign partners.
It is important that now the competition between the ships is not only in terms of performance, but also in cost. Even older designs may have cost-effectiveness benefits. Data on the cost of space in the ships, cited by NASA OIG, emphasize the specifics of this confrontation.
In fact, in the field of manned space exploration there is a real race in which organizations and companies from several countries participate. While its participants are competing for orders from the space departments of their countries. According to various forecasts, in the future, the current developments can contribute to the development of space tourism. Who will be the winner of such a race is unknown. However, it is clear what the prize will be for the winner. And it is clearly worth the effort and investment.
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