Is Ukrainian Neptune Dangerous?
Throw test of product P-360. Photo: National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine
Last year, Ukraine began testing the promising Neptune anti-ship missile. The other day it became known about the next test launch, which should bring the moment of the adoption of the rocket into service. The coastal complex RK-360 with such a missile should become the most important military-political instrument and increase the combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian army. However, it is not yet clear whether the missile will be able to justify the hopes placed on it.
Unavailability
The Neptune project can be considered a typical “long-term construction,” characteristic of the Ukrainian military industry. The first proposals to create a promising RCC were made back in the nineties. The project in its current form was proposed in 2010, but real work began only at the end of 2014.
In 2015, GKKB Luch for the first time presented materials on the Neptune product. In the spring of 2016, a simplified configuration of the missile was built - it did not have a power plant and basic electronic equipment. Already at this stage, it became clear that the new Ukrainian P-360 Neptune product is inherently a modification of the old Soviet X-35 missile, processed to the capabilities of Ukrainian industry.
In January 2018, at the Alibey training ground (Odessa region), missile throw tests were conducted. The first full-fledged launch with a check on the operation of the equipment was carried out on December 5 and 2018. The next flight took place on April 5 on the 2019. It was alleged that during these tests, experienced RCCs traveled the required route and hit the intended training objectives.
On May 24, they carried out the next test launch of a missile with GOS. On November 28 another flight was completed as standard. GKKB “Luch” claims that the development of Neptune as an aircraft has been completed. Now the issues of improving the characteristics, as well as setting the complex into service, can be addressed.
Rocket complex "Neptune". Photo: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Despite the stated successes, the state of the Neptune project is not encouraging. About five years were spent on processing the initial X-35 project, taking into account the production capabilities of Ukraine, as well as on subsequent tests and refinement. How quickly the following work will succeed (and will it succeed) is a big question.
Thus, the Neptune missile system as a combat-ready and operational product is absent. Against the background of the April tests, the Ukrainian leadership claimed that the anti-ship missiles will go into service before the end of the year. In November, it was argued that state trials would end this year. It is unlikely that in such a time it will be possible to complete the required work and prepare for production a full-fledged combat-ready missile system.
Design features
To date, all the basic data on the RK-360 Neptune complex are known, which allows us to determine its strengths and weaknesses, as well as draw conclusions about the combat potential, military benefits and ability to influence the international military-political situation.
In its present form, "Neptune" is a coastal missile system consisting of several means on automobile chassis. The complex includes the R-360 missile, a launcher on the KrAZ-7634NE chassis, a control vehicle, as well as a transport and loading vehicle. The possibility of creating a ship and aviation versions of the complex.
The main objective of the missile system is the defeat of surface targets, however, declared the possibility of working onshore facilities. In particular, some hotheads have already claimed that with the help of Neptune, the Ukrainian army will be able to threaten the Black Sea the fleet Russia and the newly built Crimean bridge.
The layout of the active radar seeker for "Neptune". Photo: Ukrmilitary.com
Being a development of the existing X-35 rocket, the Ukrainian product P-360 retains its basic features and operating principles. Similar tactical and technical characteristics are also obtained. The missile is equipped with a turbojet marching engine, an active homing radar and a penetrating warhead.
Declared flight range - 300 km. Speed on the marching section - no more than M = 0,85. With its own weight of 870 kg, the rocket carries an 150-kg warhead. The existing version of the missile system has a self-propelled launcher with 4 transport and launch containers for P-360 products.
Advantages and disadvantages
It is curious that the main positive features of the Neptune project are related exclusively to the fact of its existence. Despite the well-known problems, Ukrainian industry continues to develop its first “own" RCC, which gives reason for pride. The adoption of the missile into service is associated not only with the combat effectiveness of the army, but also with national prestige.
The technical side of the Neptune project does not give much reason for pride or optimism. The P-360 missile is based on far from the newest project, which imposes significant restrictions. In addition, she had to develop new components - according to various sources, some of the key units for the rocket still need to be developed.
In its final form, the RCC "Neptune" may have several positive features. Mobile execution of the coastal complex allows you to quickly deploy it in dangerous directions and attack the ship's enemy formations. The theoretical possibility of adapting the P-360 to different media (modeled on the base X-35) will expand the range of tasks. The marching part of the flight is carried out at low altitude, which increases the likelihood of a successful air defense breakthrough and delivery of the warhead to the target. ARGSN is able to provide an effective target search and successful guidance on it.
Means of a rocket complex. Photo: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Declared flight characteristics may be insufficient for effective combat operations. So, subsonic speed can make a rocket more vulnerable to naval air defense. An effective defense breakthrough may require a massive launch, which requires the simultaneous use of several batteries with a set of launchers. As a result, new requirements for the production and deployment of complexes appear.
The Ukrainian RCC "Neptune" in its final form should have the characteristics and capabilities at the level of the base model in the form of X-35. Such achievements could be cause for pride - if the two missiles had not been separated for several decades. In fact, only now Ukraine was able to repeat the Soviet product of the early eighties, even if with a change in some components.
Military-political instrument?
The Neptune missile system is created not only to enhance national prestige, but also to solve political problems. He was repeatedly spoken of as an instrument to deter "Russian aggression." However, in recent years, the Ukrainian army and industry have hardly used other formulations.
It must be admitted that Russia should pay attention to the Neptune project. At the disposal of an unfriendly neighboring state in the foreseeable future a new missile system with a certain potential may appear, which poses a certain threat. This fact must be taken into account in military planning and construction.
Launcher with TPK for missiles. Photo: Wikimedia Commons
In theory, Neptune complexes can be deployed along the entire Azov and Black Sea coast of Ukraine. In combination with a firing range of up to 300 km, this will allow to control significant water areas of the two seas and attack surface (allegedly also ground) targets.
However, Ukrainian missiles should not be overestimated. They, of course, are going to be adopted, but one should not expect that Ukraine will be able to build a large number of complexes and missiles within a reasonable time frame, which is necessary to cover the main water areas. In recent years, many bold and important Ukrainian projects have encountered problems in terms of financing and production, which is why they did not give all the desired results.
The performance characteristics and origin sharply reduce the danger of Neptune. The R-360 missile is made subsonic, which limits its combat potential and simplifies interception. In addition, it was created on the basis of the Soviet X-35, and the Russian military can easily determine effective countermeasures.
Pride and Pessimism
The very fact of developing the first proprietary anti-ship missile and coastal complex for it may be a reason for pride of Ukrainian industry - despite the previous and expected difficulties. Otherwise, there are no reasons for optimism and positive assessments.
Test launch, December 2018. Photo: Facebook.com/petroporoshenko
In fact, a slightly modernized version of a fairly old rocket has been developed. Its characteristics are limited, but their receipt is associated with technical difficulties. Construction and deployment of such weapons requires special expenses, which can be prohibitive for the current military budget of Ukraine. Finally, the finished sample does not pose a particular danger to the “aggressor” represented by Russia.
To break into the international market will be extremely difficult. Developed countries have long divided the RCC market and coastal complexes, and are unlikely to give up their positions without a fight. In addition, one should not forget about the reputation of Ukraine as an arms supplier, damaged in recent years.
The Ukrainian Neptune is a cause for pride in Kiev, but does not become a reason for Moscow’s particular concern. It is necessary to take into account the presence of such weapons and take the necessary measures, but no more. The Black Sea Fleet and other troops in the region have all the means to counter the new missile “threat” and will be able to successfully counter it. Unless, of course, the P-360 missile can go beyond the range and get into the army.
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