December meeting in Paris. Ukraine at the Minsk Dead End
An agreement on a meeting in the "Norman format" in Paris was reached, but Moscow was in no hurry to confirm this sensation, leaving all the laurels to Europe. This suggests that Moscow does not expect serious breakthrough results from this meeting. To the peak of Kiev, where, as it were, some awesome agreements were expected, or rather, concessions and even surrender to Russia. They have been waiting for this for almost 6 years, since 2014 years.
Is there any hope?
Obviously, Moscow agreed to this summit without any pleasure, at the request of Berlin and Paris: Vladimir Putin has just reiterated Moscow’s harsh stance, which consists in the need for Kiev to comply with the Minsk agreements. While in Kiev they are hoping for some reason to begin the negotiation process with Moscow, they want to conclude some kind of peace agreement with Moscow. Instead of the Minsk agreements. Nevertheless, there is hope that it will be possible to continue the withdrawal of troops in the Donbass. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas flies with her to Kiev.
In general, the tactics of Russia since 2014 of the year are not to aggravate the situation while it is possible, since the other side is already actively engaged in this. Zelensky’s government, Foreign Minister Priestayko continue this tradition and escalate hysteria, trying to achieve a stronger negotiating position, and then there will be a “hitch”: Russia will refuse to surrender again. As a result, Putin will win again, and Kiev will be mistaken in his calculations, although he tried so hard, he intensified passions. So don’t overstate - and you won’t be mistaken!
Background question
The excitement surrounding this “Norman” meeting has long been fueled by the statements of President Macron and Chancellor Merkel; it was supposedly planned in September tokmo to promote the Minsk agreements. And now, finally, is scheduled for December 9. Otherwise, Paris and Berlin would be in an awkward position, on the other hand, Kiev carried out the withdrawal of troops in three sections. With great difficulty, overcoming the resistance of the Azov Nazis, and this in itself says that the provocative shelling in the Donbass is carried out by the Ukrainian side.
All meetings of the "Norman" experts before this were unsuccessful, if not to say that they ended in complete failure. They are led from Russia by Vladislav Surkov, and this does not bode well for our "Norman" partners. Surkov of the American special representative Kurt Walker “made” so that his “peacekeepers” are no longer remembered. In August, Volker asked Moscow for a meeting in the Donbass, but it did not take place, apparently, Surkov did not find time for Volker.
At a meeting of experts in Berlin, Surkov repeated the position of Russia from the 2016 of the year, inviting Ukraine to fulfill what has already been agreed and signed: withdraw troops in three pilot sites, stop shelling, begin to implement the “Steinmeier formula”, which leads to the recognition of the republics of Donbass and giving special status of Donbass. Today Zelensky began to fulfill what Poroshenko had signed up to, but could he complete the fulfillment of the commitments undertaken by Kiev?
Zelensky's move
We see that President Zelensky lay down under Bandera, as Poroshenko used to be, hence his provocative statements about Crimea, anti-Minh phrases about “militants in the Donbass”, denial of special status and amnesty for Donbass. Zelensky changed his campaign promises, his voters, because the streets of Kiev are completely under the control of Ukrainian Nazi fighters.
Such an entry of Zelensky into the “Bandera consensus” may adversely affect the fate of Poroshenko, who, in general, is becoming unnecessary for nationalists. “The Moor has done his job,” and now you can sacrifice it, and Zelensky will fulfill at least one of his campaign promises. Although Poroshenko himself called the "cynical Bandera"!
Moscow’s tough stance on Kiev’s implementation of the Minsk Agreements leaves Zelensky with no hope of direct negotiations with Putin over a “peace treaty.” Ukraine remains at the Minsk deadlock because its Bandera consensus remains. The economy of Ukraine is collapsing, so the "economist" Kolomoisky speaks with a scandalous interview in the New York Times, in which he urgently urges restoration of ties with Russia. Finally, on 1 on January 2020, Gazprom’s gas transit through Ukraine may end.
The ex-deputy of the Rada, and now the political emigrant and expert Oleg Tsaryov, believes that the fate of Ukraine will be decided before the New Year. It may very well be ...
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