A moment of history
And finally a few words about falsification stories and, in particular, the “Russian world”. It would be at least once to hear from the defenders of history their assessment of the joint parade in Brest in the 1939 year of the Nazi troops under the command of Guderian and the Stalin troops under the command of Krivoshein. After the joint occupation of Poland, this parade was what? History or its falsification?
The question is this: tough and specific. About the "occupation of Poland." The question is asked at the end of the wonderful article "The ambassadors are gone, but the Russian world remains." His next Belarusian oppositionist and columnist Vladimir Podgol sets him. And, therefore, he really wants to hear the "assessment." Asked - we answer. Only unexpectedly answer. Suddenly so, unpredictable.
The trouble of the author of the question is that he himself does not even understand what exactly he is asking. And the point is not that there was no "parade" and could not be (the Red Army was not commanded by idiots and they would never have decided on such an action). The problem is precisely the political orientation of the issue, which the author himself is not fully aware of.
After the 1939, Belarus was “stitched” in two pieces. This, sorry, is a historical fact. “In 1937-39, a project was developed and began to be implemented to transfer the capital to Mogilev, since Minsk was located 30 km from the border." These are our “pies”. The border passed close to the glorious city of Minsk. And then she was pushed back. In 39. And the BSSR has become much more. Naturally, the Poles could hardly have liked it. In Europe, there is not much free land in general, as Belarusian publicists think.
And, of course, the Poles inevitably had to have claims. It is clear that in the era of the USSR and Poland it was rather difficult to present them. But times are changing, “independent Belarus” appears on the map and ... and the full circus begins. He has repeatedly noted the complete and categorical lack of interest of the Belarusian leadership in army construction. And such construction is primarily money. We have to pay people, we need to buy equipment and fuel and lubricants for it, a lot of what is needed.
That is, the presence of serious expenditures on the army would drastically change both the structure of the budget and the standard of living in the "new, independent republic." The army is always very, very expensive. Lukashenko is a populist (initially). Therefore, such expenses were absolutely uninteresting to him. Talking about independence from a high rostrum is easy and enjoyable. To create a modern combat-ready army is long, expensive and difficult. Therefore, the army simply did not bother all these years (it simply did not fit into the "unique economic model").
But not only that. The "revision of history" and the exposure of "Soviet crimes" began. And here the very “pulp” begins. There was no Belarus before the BSSR. That's it. It’s almost like with Ukraine (but not like with Armenia!): The BSSR is a product of the work of Soviet politicians and cartographers. As, however, and the Ukrainian SSR. Such matters, no one is to blame.
“The second enlargement of the BSSR occurred on December 28 1926, when Gomel and Rechitsa counties of the Gomel province were transferred to it. As a result, the territory of the BSSR became 125 854 square. km, and the population reached almost 5 million people. " “A significant increase in the territory of Belarus occurred after the so-called The Red Army’s liberation campaign in Western Belarus, which began on 17 on September 1939 on November 2, passed the Law On the Incorporation of Western Belarus into the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and its Reunification with the Belarusian Soviet Socialist Republic. As a result, the territory of the BSSR increased to 225 600 square. km, and the population is up to 10,239 million people. "
Such things are: both the territory and the population of Belarus (namely Belarus, and what kind of wars did Belarus win?) After September of the 39, they grew almost 2 times! Interesting, huh? That is, the position of the modern Belarusian press, "condemning" the "attack on Poland", looks rather strange, if not wildly. By the way, officially “reunion” in Belarus is somehow not much celebrated.
We are all from the USSR
In general, the “rejection of the USSR” in the case of Minsk looks rather ridiculous. “Preserved industry” is the legacy of the USSR, and A.G. Lukashenko has absolutely nothing to do with her. It would be unrealistic to save something after 91 without the Russian market and Russian help.
But the territory of Belarus itself is a product of administrative (and foreign policy!) Decisions of the USSR. The position that “and so it is clear to everyone that this is all Belarus”, gives a frank naivete - the Belarusian army has not only won the war, but has not won a single battle and is unlikely to win one. An attempt to renounce Soviet history while preserving Soviet territory is a very dubious occupation.
Until the 91th border, the BSSR existed within the framework of a superpower. The borders of the BSSR were simply monstrously powerful, capable of erasing life on the planet (and more than once), and therefore they were indestructible. You get used to the good quickly. After 91, the situation turned around radically. The USSR is no more. And the Belarusian borders are no longer under the patronage of a superpower. It is unlikely that it will be possible to replace the Soviet nuclear missile potential with the shy smile of the head of the Belarusian Foreign Ministry, Mr. Makei.
At one time, the author of the book “Why Russia is not America” openly laughed at the then Russian concept of “Saints 90's,” that “all fools spend money on the army, and we are smarter than everyone, and we don’t need an army”, and “ Moscow intellectuals who believe that they own the resources of the Far East ”(an absolutely crazy idea). Answering that "there is no army - there are no resources" and "this world is rather cruel to the weak."
If anything, the issues of defense construction (and collapse) over the past 10 years have been actively discussed on the pages of the Russian press. VO is a prime example of this very trend. And this is not fashion, and not sophistication, not the desire to "play some tanks". It just dawned on people that without defense would not be nothing. When is the question of foot cloth vs. socks is becoming one of the main topics on a national scale, this testifies to a lot.
Aggressive imperial Russia as the antipode of a small European non-conflict Belarus is just a beautiful legend. And the Belgians, and the Dutch, and the Swiss, and the Danes simply had gigantic geopolitical problems with their neighbors. A well-fed and cultured European life involves periodic robbery and massacre of losers. It is simply that Belarus is actively “hiding” its own lack of independence and dependence on Russia.
At first glance, it’s like “almost Switzerland”, but if you take a closer look ... the Belarusian economy is not viable without the Russian market (no one is obliged to let Belarusians into it). Belarus is completely unsustainable without Russian oil and gas sold at a discount through pipelines. Belarus did not come close to creating a powerful, modern army capable of defending national borders. Excuse me, where is this “independence”?
“European and non-conflict Belarus” can exist only while “aggressive imperial Russia” feeds and protects it. But talking about it is "not accepted." In fact, the huge amount of hydrocarbons consumed by the poor and backward RB is a very valuable resource. And it is customary to fight for resources in this cruel world. What are the chances of Belarus in such a fight? For the markets, too, decided to fight. By the way, it was the struggle for raw materials and markets that caused two world wars (one of the main reasons). So what are the chances of Belarus to get markets and resources? On your own?
Within the borders of the Republic of Belarus there are neither sufficient resources for an industrial society, nor a large independent market, but the “preservation of these borders” is in itself a big and big question. This world is cruel enough to the weak. Alas. The fact that Belarus should be present on the map of Europe (and precisely in the borders where it is indicated today) is obvious only to the Belarusians themselves, but not to anyone else.
And the borders of France, and the borders of Turkey, and even the borders of Switzerland were determined in the course of numerous wars. More recently, we had an example of the defeat of the SFRY and the “division” of Czechoslovakia. None of those who talk about the territorial integrity of Ukraine, stutters about this in relation to Syria or Serbia. That is, the borders are quite mobile.
Immediately after the Minsk talks on the Donbass, the Belarusian leadership was seized by megalomania in the field of “donation in the field of European security”. No, being a donor is good! It’s just great when you have this very safety, like shoe polish by Uncle Cat Matroskin. A small, poor and socially unstable Belarus, which does not have a modern army, cannot be such a donor by definition.
All propagandists of the concept of “donation” ignored the simple fact that without Russia and Putin no one would have gone to Minsk. The trouble with Belarusian politicians is that they constantly confuse their wool with Russian. Natural resources of Russia and the Russian market are the property of Russia, but nobody else. And all this has nothing to do with Minsk. The same applies to the military-political capabilities of the Russian Federation. Minsk-1 and Minsk-2 are a meeting of leaders of the "big" powers. And not because Minsk is “feyno mysto”.
The military-political capabilities of Belarus in the modern world are very small. And starting a conversation about the "Stalin crimes" and the "attack on Poland" is a very bad idea. Dangerous idea. Dangerous for the very “Belarusian statehood”. Why? Yes, a long time to explain. It turns out funny - the tail wags the dog: Belarusians have been interpreted for so long that Poland is good, and Russia is bad that this is already in complete contradiction with the preservation of Belarusian statehood.
“Creative salad is a sapper’s mistake.” Once upon a time, Belarusian elites came to a consensus that the ideology of Belarus should be anti-Russian. Well, without further ado ... what's next to us? Member of the EU and NATO - Poland! So Russophobian and propolian. Not by a great mind, by the way, this choice was made, because half of the territory of modern Belarus is precisely what took away the “bad” Stalin from the “good” Poland.
More than once or twice it was said that the gap with Russia is fatal for the Belarusian economy, but for the Belarusian geopolitical model it is fatal. To preserve the territorial integrity of the Republic of Belarus, there can only be one ideology: Stalin is good, September of the 39 is good, the Red Army is just great. Molotov - Ribbentrop - a wonderful treaty! Or big questions arise. Serious questions. And the questions are to Minsk (RB is an independent power!), And not to Moscow (Russia does not have territories obtained under the Covenant).
Sudden solution to complex problems
And it seems that Belarusians do not fully understand the seriousness of the situation. It's like with 10 billions of dollars of compensation for Russian tax maneuver. The Republic of Belarus suddenly wanted to receive 10 billions of Russian money just like that: right away and for beautiful eyes. That is, the country is as if independent, but for some reason Russia was supposed to finance it. The Belarusian approach is interesting: talk about the tax maneuver, preparation for it and its implementation has been going on for a very long time.
But until the last moment Minsk pretends that “independent Belarus” is not very interesting. And literally at the last moment they are with honest eyes require 10 BILLION. And no politics - so, a petty economic issue. As we know, the war in Syria / in the Donbass rumbled in parallel with the preparation of this very tax maneuver. In one country and another, official Minsk maintained freedom of hands and distanced itself from Russia (we are an independent country and we ourselves determine our foreign policy!). And then suddenly: uncle, give ten billion!
With 40 fighters it was about the same thing when (and only when) the collapse of the Air Force and Air Defense of the Republic of Belarus became quite obvious: uncle, give 40 fighters! That is, the “secret” of the sovereignty of the Republic of Belarus is the ability to “competently” work with “external resources”. And no one as a result of asking: “What is the matter with the army?” People are interested in the free transfer of “Sushki”. In economics? People sit and work hard waiting for 10 billions of “compensation”.
I’m afraid that the issue of ensuring the “inviolability of the Belarusian borders” is a one-on-one situation. Until the last moment, there will be intrigues, provocations and completely suicidal policies, and at the last moment ... Russia is obliged to "flee and save everyone." "And we thought we were allies." Such a magic phrase.
“Donbass option”, it just takes place to be in the case of Belarus. By the way, the author did not immediately understand this, because it is not from Russia. But from the Polish side - quite (that is, rather Romanian-Moldavian) ... As you know, young Belarusians get a so-called “Pole map” in bulk, while this does not bother the state bodies of “independent RB”. The press press constantly writes about the threat posed by “imperial Russia”, but about Poland, it’s only good. Not quite, you know, it is clear what the Belarusian authorities want to achieve in this way.
In the conditions of the collapse of the Belarusian economy and the categorical unpopularity of the Belarusian political system. And if you add to this the persistent and frankly anti-state propaganda about the attack in the 39 of “bad Russia” on “good Poland”, then the picture of years through 5 will be just hellish. Lukashenko’s regime is not considered legitimate in Europe and especially in the USA. "The last dictator of Europe." Which means that, in principle, любые anti-Belarusian actions will be supported by the West if necessary.
How it will look, we can see on the example of Syria, Libya, Yugoslavia, Iraq, Ukraine. No illusions - due to the illegitimacy of the regime, Lukashenko, in which case there simply will not be diplomatic means of struggle. The head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, Mr. Makei, can make a very serious person, but little depends on him in terms of the country's security. For some reason, Belarusians are actively instilled with unreasonable illusions that their country is something like Finland or Austria.
The “interesting” approach:
“Well, you don’t want a war?”
- We do not want!
- Do you want to live in Finland or Austria?
Pink dreams and lead gray reality
You can want anything, it does not affect reality in any way. Belarusians can live as much as they like in some kind of “virtual Austria”, but with the very first salvos of a new war all illusions will collapse (as hopes for a kind of “unique social state” collapsed). If anything, then the Yugoslavs were completely neutral and did not want to fight with anyone. If anything, Poland and Belarus are completely incomparable in all respects. To begin with, the Poles have an army. Large and modern (compared to Belarus). Poland is a full member of NATO and the EU and "a privileged ally of the United States in Eastern Europe." And her economy is not a couple of Belarusian. And (like a cherry on the cake!) Young Belarusians dream of a “map of the Pole”.
You know, as they say, there is no need to look for malicious intent where everything is explained by something else. The basis of the economy of independent Belarus were made by Soviet industrial giants and Soviet collective farms. In state property. For 25 years, huge money was pumped into them, but they never gave a return. But was it done from evil? They simply didn’t know how or didn’t want to. And even when the dead end (the boundary of 00's and 10's) became obvious, they did not change anything. And then from a "independent country" suddenly sounds a "request" (very similar to the demand) for 10 billions (otherwise there is already famine and collapse).
Something similar seems to be happening with geopolitics. People simply don’t understand the consequences of their decisions, and they won’t understand them until they’ll get into them, and then it will be too late. It’s like after the 91, in Poland, Lithuania, Russia and Ukraine, privatization and the transition to a market economy are underway. In different ways and with different results ... but Belarusians from the 94 year are sitting and waiting for something. Quarter of century. Despite the fact that all neighbors are moving away from the state model of the economy. All without exception. And the Belarusians all this time sat and waited for something ... and then suddenly showed up ...
But literally until the very last moment, Belarusian politicians and commentators made very smart faces when they talked about their “unique economic model”. The situation with the “unique geopolitical model” is somewhat similar. The Belarusian leadership (without abandoning the Union State and the Collective Security Treaty Organization) almost openly announced through the lips of Mr. Makei (Foreign Minister) to the city and the world of their “neutrality”. At the same time, the Poles and the Americans are moving troops east ... in parallel with this, the Belpress press openly discusses “Stalin’s aggression against the Polish Republic” and the “Molotov-Ribentropp criminal pact.” And in parallel with this, the same press openly spat upon modern Russian and “non-modern” Stalinist policies.
You know what's the funniest thing? At the same time, Belarusians for the most part are absolutely convinced that they personally are not in danger. At least from the West.