I deliberately did not touch the topic of the civil war in Ukraine for a long time. Just because for many people this country has been and remains a part of our own lives, a place where friends and relatives live, a place where we used to come from childhood on vacation, on vacation, at work.
Entreux as a natural state of euphoria after an imaginary victory
Even then, when the majority of Ukrainians enthusiastically spoke about the victory over the hated Poroshenko democratically, about the election of a new person in politics who is not biased by the oligarchs and has no political ambitions, it was already clear that the country was being led in a certain direction. The global West, sadly to write this, won this game already then.
Today I will not analyze the actions of the "new" team of the Ukrainian government. There are many such materials in the media. Today I just propose an option for the further development of Ukraine on the basis of current events. Own opinion about the future of a neighboring country, if you will.
Very often I hear a rather controversial thesis, which quite a few interlocutors pass as an axiom. The thesis that it does not matter at all who the politician was in the “past life”. It is important that he achieved certain results in his profession. And that is what is the main thing. Efficiency and success in your profession.
Examples of a fairly large number of famous people are given. However, for some reason no one notices, perhaps intentionally, that all these politicians were always either in opposition or in a team next to the leader. No one became the locomotive of any important changes. And if by the will of fate they became the head of state, the consequences of this were quite tragic for their own state, and sometimes for the world.
But back to Ukraine. President Zelensky came to power without promising anything. More precisely, the image created by the comedian Zelensky came to power. And it was the image that promised nothing. Everyone has already seen many episodes of what he was doing in power. And that means he will do the post of president of Ukraine.
Moreover, this was his "trick" at that time. I spoke with quite serious analysts at that time. And all this phenomenon has caused concern. The people were so against it that it was enough for voters to vote for a "pig in a poke." Invented by Vasily Petrovich Goloborodko becomes the real president ...
Remember the answers to the logical questions of that time? And why is Zelensky doing nothing in this direction? And he did not promise anything! And here? I didn’t promise it either! And they answered with the appearance of the winners. Even when it came to very serious things like dominating youth gangs and radicals on the streets, the answer was not much different. He is not used to being president. Wait, and you will see another Zelensky. Stalin in the guise of the Ukrainian president!
Summarize the achievements of Ukraine
So what do we have in Ukraine today? Industry? Successfully finished off Poroshenko's factories, which are the pride of the USSR, and subsequently Ukraine, not only do not revive, but also achieve the new government. What today stands out for victories in this area is worthy of some umba-yumba tribe in equatorial Africa, but not in the recent industrialized republic of the USSR itself.
Agriculture? Voting in the Rada put a huge end to the dreams of Ukrainians about an agrarian power. Through 5, for a maximum of 10 years, the land will be owned by a small group of entrepreneurs, and ordinary people will simply be thrown out from villages to cities. And not always in Ukrainian cities. It looks at least strange. Given the fact that this year agriculture really gave Ukraine a record amount of grain.
Army? No matter how triumphant the reports of the army and navy commanders may sound, the army and navy of Ukraine today are a miserable sight. Attempts to modernize old Soviet weapons, pleas for the transfer of decommissioned NATO weapons and equipment, problems with conscription, loss of control over armed groups ...
Numerous statements by republican military personnel “from the trenches” such as “come and try to take our land” today do not at all look like some kind of bravado. They are really confident in their victory. “At zero” one can clearly see the state of the enemy and his capabilities, and even then, he goes on the offensive or heroically lies down after the first shots in response.
Society? What kind of society can we talk about today? There is no Ukrainian society. What has always been a problem of Ukraine, a very clear division into friends and foes, East and West, Ukrainians and Bandera, Selyuk and townspeople, today is no longer just a problem. This is hostility today. Moreover, the anger on both sides is so strong that a social explosion can occur at any time. Blood is pouring, but so far locally.
Social security? What kind of security can we talk about today? Education, medicine, science and everything that forms the basis of the desire to live in a given country is in such a state that it’s time to simply forget even the words meaning the concepts themselves. The paradox, diplomas of Ukraine received before 2014 in Poland, Romania, Hungary and some other countries do not need to be confirmed. But what is received later, Europeans are in doubt. I don’t even want to write about diseases that have become the norm in Ukraine today.
What next? Where will Ukraine go?
I don’t know if you noticed that the situation in Ukraine is deliberately heating up. And this is done very competently. Each creature - a pair.
Veterans of environmental protection are dissatisfied with the breeding of units in the Donbass. Moreover, they provoke both parties to return to position. Remember the last episode of the undermining war on an unknown explosive device of officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including Colonel, brigade commander of the 128 OGShBr Korostelev. Trying to blame the blast on Republicans looks ridiculous. And further actions of the OOS command speak otherwise.
The SBU and the military prosecutor’s office arrived in the brigade. At the site of the explosion, two more radio-controlled landmines were found. But the most interesting thing is that in the area of responsibility of the brigade, almost in the rear, the fighters of the tactical counter-sniper group "Terek" from the 3 OPSpN GUR APU are seen. What caused a panic in the ranks of the radicals. Today they are sitting in full combat readiness in their own dugouts.
Strange look and other events relating to the Donbass. The media is full of interviews with various Ukrainian economists who talk about the impossibility of restoring Donbass in case of victory. Journalists like Drozdov give out programs that are clearly aimed at residents of the republics, in which they talk about concentration camps for republicans, about the deprivation of their civil rights and freedoms, and about mopping up. Ukrainians are told that the Donbass is a territory of a “plague” that can destroy Ukraine.
The adoption of the law on the sale of land raised the protests of the villagers. And this is really a big force in Ukraine. By the way, I think you should pay attention to how beautifully this is done.
Donbass, the confrontation between Naftogaz and Gazprom, political squabbles in the Rada and the like for the villager - is nonsense. It is there, somewhere far away, in Kiev, in Donetsk, in some Brussels. This does not concern us. Lovely scolding - only amuse. Gas? Yes, how many times has it been. There will be December - there will be a contract. And everything will be as always. And here is the earth. My land! Yes, I put a throat on my throat.
Dissatisfaction within all layers of the Ukrainian people, though not quickly, but growing. Zelensky is rapidly losing its rating. The situation in some strange way completely copies Russia 1917 of the year. Only the surname of the ruler is different. Then there was Kerensky, today Zelensky. The frenzied popularity is rapidly changing to hatred.
What's next? Further, the demand of the people to restore order in the country. Remove radicals and bandits from the streets. The demand for a "strong hand." The second Maidan? No, the majority, even students and schoolchildren who are inclined toward change, will not go to the Maidan today. Too great a disappointment with the previous Maidan. And the new generation has not yet grown up.
What is left? There remains indeed a "strong hand." A person who represses and harshly reacts to opposition appearances to calm society. In Russia, on 1917, Krasnov could have become such a hand. And in Ukraine? The answer is on the surface. Avakov! Robespierre of the Ukrainian revolution.
A revolution can take any form, but cannot change the content.
Alas, the fact that the people of Ukraine will require Avakov to restore order in the country will thereby give him carte blanche. It's unavoidable. The question today is a little different. When? How long will Zelensky still be in power?
In my opinion, the Moor has already done his job. Only a little remains. It is necessary to bring the law on the sale of land to its logical conclusion. And this is a matter of two to three months. Presidential signature and time for the implementation of the first projects.
On gas, too, everything is clear. Zelensky is well aware that Russia's position will not change under the pressure of anyone. Time lag is playing against Ukraine. December is near. Problems with the GTS too. No matter how encouraging Ukrainian politicians are, gas tariffs have already grown. And they will grow further.
The conclusion on gas is simple. Who can give gas? Russia, USA and Qatar. No one else. Now a simple question. What restrictions will sellers have in their appetites? None! The contract will be enslaving. Akin to the act of surrender.
Donbass today has become the very stone that is tied to the neck of Ukraine, and with which it will have to "swim" further. Politicians in the western part of the country openly say "either Donbass or Galicia." In fact, this means the separation of Donbass, and Galicia too.
From here it’s quite simple to conclude. President Zelensky was given two to three months to complete the operation on the deriban of Ukrainian land. February-March is the deadline. Entre is ending. The next number of the circus program will be the taming of predators. The transformation of lions and tigers into large domestic cats. Or stuffed for a zoological museum. This is someone as lucky ...
* Antre (circus) - a comic scene performed by clowns.