Warsaw analysts: Russia is not ready for a nuclear war


Still, it’s good that there are two countries in the world such as Ukraine and Poland, as well as the Baltic nano-powers. Without them, life and the information field would be dull and gray. How much joy and healthy, and sometimes just hysterical laughter, is given only by the Ukrainian media! But politicians, generals and just grassroots “avatars” of the “most powerful army of the Universe”? It's just a storehouse for jokes, a sea of ​​laughter and tons of valuable information for practicing psychiatrists. Bloggers with analysts are not far behind them. Poland in this regard is sometimes able to give a hundred points ahead even to Ukraine. That's what happened now. This time on the stage with his stand-up show, a certain “Warsaw Institute” - a “think tank” of Polish origin and location, with their own “exploding the Internet” the news that "Russia is not ready for a nuclear war", it turns out.


Amazing discoveries of Warsaw analysis masters


An article posted on the institute’s website states that the recent strategic command post exercises (SKSHU) of the Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces Grom-2019 allegedly showed that "Russia's strategic arsenals are much lower than expected (by the authorities)." Like, Putin himself saw this personally, being "at the main command post." This is the Poles who mean by it the National Center for the Defense of the Russian Federation. In fact, the control of the armed forces and, especially, the strategic nuclear forces during such exercises as during the war, goes through the system of a central protected command post, reserve protected command posts, protected command and control units and, most importantly, air and mobile command posts. And in the NTsUO it is simply duplicated. Polish "analysts" (the quotation marks are perfectly appropriate here) believe that Putin "personally became convinced of this by pressing a button and seeing that his order was not executed - the rocket did not take off." We are obviously talking about the fact that one of the two launches of the R-29RKU-02 "Station-02" SLBM from the board of the Ryazan RPKSN of the Red Banner Pacific fleet (CTOF).

For some reason, the Polish think tank considers this cancellation to be a “serious accident” at the “climax of the exercise,” and that “only single missile launches were carried out before”. The level of knowledge about our strategic nuclear forces and test methods is simply fantastic, to be sure.

Volleys of "Autumn Shootout"


In fact, any combat missile system of the naval component of the strategic nuclear forces is always tested by volley launches in the 2 and 4 SLBMs, and the assets of our strategic nuclear forces include the unique Behemoth-2 operation, when the whole RPKSN ammunition, 667BDRM, was launched in one salvo, that is, 16 missiles (well, most of the missiles have been replaced by flying models for throwing launches with the inclusion of the first stage, but this is unprincipled). And what's more, even a new cruiser handed over to the armament, as a rule, carries out volley launch of 2 missiles. At the same time, the Polish “institute” for some reason believes that, in particular, only X-55 air-based KRs were used in the exercises, although this antique modification was not there, and the difference between this missile and the X-55MS and non-nuclear X-555 is very large, not to mention the X-101 and X-102, which are completely different generation rockets. The Poles themselves note that the Grom had a record number of missile launches (and all launched were successful), but this record was due to the long-range missiles of land, sea and air bases, as well as the Iskander-M missile systems.

Actually, the strategic radius BR was launched as much as in all other "autumn shootings", "autumn nuclear wars" (and sometimes spring) - 3-4 missiles of all types, usually 1-2 ICBMs, and 1-2 SLBMs. Moreover, SLBMs launched from the KTOF to the firing range in the North, that is, to the west, are usually counted as an enemy attack, that is, the United States. And in this role, in recent years, usually the SSBN, etc. 667BDR, has been played, in particular, by Ryazan (which now has remained one of the entire project in the ranks). For a number of reasons, the new 955 Aircraft Launchers with the "Clubs" have not yet been fired in this direction (these reasons have nothing to do with their combat readiness and missiles in general, reasons of a completely different nature). But launching from west to east is already our oncoming, reciprocal oncoming or retaliatory strike, or even a “strike at the appointed time” against the American adversary-aggressor. And the scenario and course of the current exercises, when it reaches the American headquarters, will provide a lot of sad food for thought and reasons for action. What is the drama of canceling (for an unknown reason) the launch of one of the two designated missiles - it is not clear to any of the experts, this is quite a working moment. But on the other hand, in our press and blogs, this case was discussed in every way, and, as usual, the "opposition" was the most zealous of all kinds and colors. And the less authors of such publications and posts understood the issue, the more there was “righteous anger” from them. More precisely, "white noise".

Fingers sucked out


Launches are usually prescribed the oldest and most problematic missiles. And if one of them during the test failed one of the systems or a deviation in the parameters, then there is no problem with this. And the R-29РКУ-02, although it received this index during the modernization, but from the already very old R-29L SLBM, its carrier is the only cruiser that can serve, maybe for a year, maybe two - that's all. How will the combat SSBN become history "Prison of the Nations." Recall that so the naval witters called this project for numerous grates for draining water in the area of ​​the superstructure around the missile silos, which on 667BDRM avenue were replaced with one large slot for reasons of low noise. If the Polish "analysts" were so impressed with this episode that they made a "deep" conclusion from it about the incomplete readiness of the strategic nuclear forces, and in general the nuclear forces and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and Russia for a nuclear war, then they are sincerely sorry, like those doctors to whom they will inevitably be forced to turn.

Surely something, and the reliability of our strategic nuclear missile arsenals has been repeatedly confirmed and does not raise questions. And in a combat situation, the failure of one missile or even several on the same cruiser does not mean anything - all this will be easily blocked by warheads of other missiles from other cruisers. After all, two or more combat units from different missiles are assigned to quite important targets - suddenly there will be a failure and the target will not be hit, so the combat unit from another missile (and not from the same one) will correct the situation.

Who really has problems


Polish "experts" did not stop there. They also analyzed the official data exchange between the parties to the START-3 Treaty in their own way. Noting that Russia has offset credited warheads (which are hundreds of charges less than actually deployed, in view of the rules for offsetting bombers) than the United States, but Americans have more carriers. Which, incidentally, does not play a special role, given that the Americans have fewer "return potential" charges, but the Poles do not write about this. But they believe that Moscow is very afraid that the START-3 will not be extended, and this will cause a strategic arms race, and our "arsenals leave much to be desired." Obviously, the Warsaw Institute is not aware that Russia has no problems either with the production of new, and radically new, carriers, or with the production of new warheads, and it proves this by deed, having produced over 6 ICBMs and SLBMs over the past 200 of previous years and stockpiling for them or installing on these carriers, presumably, about 1,6 thousand charges of a new type, because the old ones are not suitable there. And what problems does the United States have that are unable to produce new charges at the moment and will soon be able to again, and even, as it turned out, with very primitive work on remaking the B61 bombs into the B61-12 variant, there are difficulties and delays, and not only them. And the US arms race is not exactly what the US needs in this matter, and the US military is well aware of this, but politicians cannot understand it yet. Russia, through the lips of its president and supreme commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces, has already spoken out that nobody will forcibly extend the Treaty, you don’t want, they say, and don’t.

And if we talk about reliability, then we can raise information about the unsuccessful launches of the Minutemans-3 among the Americans, and there have been such ones in recent years. And even the recent four-missile launch of the Trident-2 D5 SLBM also, by the way, raises questions. The fact is that there was not one volley, but two 2 missiles, with a pause of a couple of days. This may indicate that the launch of the first pair was not as successful as it was announced (say, they did not fit in the given framework for accuracy) and the backup pair of SLBMs with inert equipment was prepared and launched. Why not think-tank from Warsaw to discuss this point? Or to talk about the fact that the new head of the STRATK US Armed Forces immediately declared that extending the resource of carriers of the US strategic nuclear forces to infinity is not an option, and the limits are already close? The American admiral stated this, and not the commander of the Strategic Missile Forces, Colonel General Karakaev.

But among Polish analysts, it seems that servile complexes with respect to the overseas pan are too developed. And if there are problems in that narrow little world in which they live, then, of course, Russia always has it. And to understand the issue under discussion is not fashionable not only in Poland among the "experts", but also in the USA, in Europe, and it happens with us. Just Polish analysts and the media in this regard are far ahead of many. What is there not only! And the revelations that the Russian heavy supersonic anti-ship missiles (and hypersonic) "will not be able to hit the target hundreds of kilometers away, because they will be hindered by the radio horizon." And the fact that Putin, they say, scares the West with "cartoons", and there is nothing behind them. Although the first regiment of the 15A35-71 ICBMs with the planning high-power winged unit 15Y71 "Vanguard" is already taking up combat duty, and with the rest of the "cartoons", things are moving.

And what a magnificent, enchanting reaction there was to the recent "drape" of the Americans from their temporary bases in Syria, on Polish news portals. Like, now the Russians will at least see how people live (rather, they will see how they don’t behave, throwing garbage under the fence of the base), because they don’t have washing machines in their parts, no stoves, no microwaves, no TVs. And it’s not only newspaper scribblers, but ordinary users actively supported such a heresy! And against this background, timid voices of few adequate analysts and commentators were not heard, calling to watch a video of how the Russians actually live and serve at their bases in Syria or in Russia, how people actually live in Russia, and in general, it’s better to concentrate on the fact that in exactly the same way as from Syria, the Americans will flee from Poland, leaving the Poles to kill according to the good old tradition of Western alliance. And what is it not for the Poles to talk about nuclear war, even if it comes down only to the use of tactical nuclear weapons - the Poles will be completely plowed completely by this very tactical nuclear weapons, because once again they make themselves both a target, a training ground, and a battlefield . So far, potentially. But if the mind never returns to their heads, then it really can happen.

And our MO is better not to announce in advance exactly how many missiles it is planned to launch at the next "shootout", as it happened more than once before. So that later incompetent scribblers from near and far abroad, who understand rockets even worse than oranges, do not reproach anything.

As for Russia's readiness for a nuclear war, it is definitely ready for it better than any likely set of adversaries. It’s another matter that we are just not ready to start it just like that, and we hope that our "main potential partners" also have no such desire - they need it even less.
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  1. carstorm 11 15 November 2019 06: 09 New
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    I'm surprised that someone reads similar Polish opuses) the military analytics mod has become such that people already do it who even have no relation to this topic remotely))) we also have enough of them)
    1. maksbazhin 15 November 2019 07: 53 New
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      And I am surprised that someone responds to such opuses. Moreover, in this style: Here they were mistaken (screwed up) - what experts they were after that, but here they were not mistaken, but this is not important. Author minus negative
    2. Fedor egoist 15 November 2019 12: 59 New
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      Quote: carstorm 11
      I am surprised that similar to the Polish opuses in general someone reads)

      The fact of the matter is that they not only read, but also believe. Therefore, we need such articles, especially for those who are not in the subject. If the situation is biased and only on the one hand, then sooner or later it will begin to be perceived in the same way.
      The author simply took advantage of the pretext and spoke about the past exercises of the Strategic Missile Forces, not forgetting the launch cancellation incident. And to drive and mock incompetent "colleagues" in the pen and other "talking heads" - so this is generally his style and favorite pastime laughing
  2. Pessimist22 15 November 2019 06: 20 New
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    Why don't rockets fly?
    1. Geo⁣ 15 November 2019 07: 15 New
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      Quote: Pessimist22
      Why don't rockets fly?

      Because they are heavier than air winked
      1. Pessimist22 15 November 2019 08: 41 New
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        Polish analysts concluded that the button had broken, Putin himself checked and was not satisfied.
  3. tihonmarine 15 November 2019 06: 20 New
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    There is nothing to be surprised at, because all these institutions are a method of info war, and by whom it is founded and who pays for it is visible to everyone.
  4. Masha 15 November 2019 06: 22 New
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    It's just a storehouse for jokes, a sea of ​​laughter and tons of valuable information for practicing psychiatrists.

    Five minutes of healthy laughter, they say, prolong life for a year ... with such "analysts" we will live forever! laughing love
  5. andrewkor 15 November 2019 06: 28 New
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    You can understand these analysts, you want to eat, but what can be sold in the information space, if not Russophobia, that's what they are trying, heartfelt. Ugh, on them!
    1. Masha 15 November 2019 06: 32 New
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      Quote: andrewkor
      Ugh, on them!

      Ugh, on them! Again! laughing
  6. Amateur 15 November 2019 06: 33 New
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    a stand-up show of a certain “Warsaw Institute” - a “think tank” of Polish origin and location, with its “exploding Internet” news that “Russia is not ready for a nuclear war,” (Today)

    In Poland: Russia is still not ready for a nuclear war
    November 13 2019

    Someone in Poland blundered something, but in VO got excited "nowhere else."
    The second article in three days is about the same thing.
  7. parusnik 15 November 2019 06: 37 New
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    And figs with them, the Poles, let them rave .. Why also delirium and analyze ...
  8. Geo⁣ 15 November 2019 06: 44 New
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    And our MO is better not to announce in advance

    The author mistakenly believes that the set of input data can influence the conclusions of those who want to distort the reality of “analysts”. They simply mix the corresponding addition of lies to the source data of any quality, and part of the uncomfortable source data is simply ignored - after which the necessary analysts again get the output. They have no task of writing the truth, understand?
  9. oracul 15 November 2019 07: 02 New
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    Whatever Poland entertains, it’s only not to bark. It is the United States that may in one way or another cast doubt on Russia's readiness for a nuclear war. Apparently the task of Polish analysts is to calm themselves beloved. The trouble with Poland is that in the event of a real nuclear war, it will be one of the first to “evaporate” as a state, regardless of whether they consider Russia ready for such a war or not.
  10. Flooding 15 November 2019 07: 16 New
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    How did I miss you. Finally unban.
    "Be prepared for a nuclear war." A strange phrase, even for Polish experts.
    This is equivalent to saying "be prepared for a post-apocalypse."
    You can be ready for a retaliatory strike. And then ...
    1. Alien From 15 November 2019 14: 35 New
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      Tell me, you were banned on May 16 and unban on November 15 ??? For what are such sanctions ???????))) and Polish analysts, compared to sprats, are simply lambs)))))
      1. Flooding 15 November 2019 16: 34 New
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        Alien From
        I was sent in the spring to the eternal ban.
        They did not agree with the moderator on the characters and views on Orthodoxy.
        But today, lo and behold, I accidentally saw that I could not only read articles, but also comment.
        I don’t know why I was given such mercy.
        Either a general amnesty, or a review of the case))
  11. rocket757 15 November 2019 07: 17 New
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    Warsaw analyst ... English scientists !!! Does anyone have any associations?
  12. Avior 15 November 2019 08: 03 New
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    For a long time no one is ready for a nuclear war.
    The life of those who can decide on its beginning has become so good that there is something to lose.
  13. dsdelta 15 November 2019 08: 29 New
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    Asche Polska did not perish. Oh, gone ...)))
  14. K-50 15 November 2019 09: 15 New
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    Warsaw analysts: Russia is not ready for a nuclear war

    You might think that someone is ready! fellow
    Someone is ready to risk their citizens, the integrity of the country and safe living on it for the sake of ambition.
    Where is the madman who is willing to risk the future of his children and grandchildren?
    Not in Russia, for sure.
    We can answer, to the ashes of the enemy, but to climb somewhere is just nonsense !!! We have everything in Russia, except perhaps for parmesan and blue cheese. lol
    We can safely live in complete isolation, but how many such countries?
    Yes, most consider it necessary to get into the neighbor, rob him, beat him all the "pots". So in the medicine of psychiatry there seems to be even a diagnosis like this - there is manic-depressive psychosis.
  15. arnulla 15 November 2019 10: 41 New
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    Psheks ... no further discussion
  16. Ros 56 15 November 2019 10: 41 New
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    Well, these Poles analolytics still not come up with that.
  17. rotmistr60 15 November 2019 11: 02 New
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    Warsaw analysts: Russia is not ready for a nuclear war
    One gets the feeling that Polish Russophobes will not wait until “to spite Russia” they will burn up in the nuclear apocalypse. How much foam over the past 25 years has caused in Europe and the United States and how many substances floated. How are they still not choked with all this.
  18. Vladimir_2U 15 November 2019 11: 03 New
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    Useful article! For example, I learned from her about the "prison of peoples." Thanks to the Polish analysts! Oh, I also learned about them from the article! )))
  19. tatarin1972 15 November 2019 12: 59 New
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    For pshek cf., but do not relax yourself. They mentioned Hippopotamus 2, the SSBN crew prepared for it for six months, and before that there was a Hippopotamus, in which we had a good shit. For mattress-makers, any SSBN can carry out a full launch of all missiles, but for us it’s vryatli. So think and be adequate in your statements.
    1. andj61 15 November 2019 15: 25 New
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      Quote: tatarin1972
      For mattress-makers, any SSBN can carry out a full launch of all missiles, but for us it’s vryatli.

      And when did the mattresses carry out a full launch of ALL missiles with an SSBN? recourse Something I do not recall such facts ... request Or maybe I'm behind the times? what
      The full launch was the last time they were axes at the airfield in Syria. They shot well - it seems that out of 57 axes even 56 flew according to their own information. In ours - half as much. But axes are not sea-based ICBMs.
      In the same way, our 1-2-3 missiles are fired: more is not required to test the combat readiness. And if there was an abnormality with some missile, then this is only an excuse to prevent such an abnormality with the rest of the ICBMs. For this, including launches. hi
      1. tatarin1972 15 November 2019 21: 18 New
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        Are you up to date with all US submarine drills ?! We tried twice, once unsuccessfully.
        1. andj61 18 November 2019 10: 17 New
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          If they had tried at least once and it would have worked, then they would have boasted of this achievement and compared with Russia. In reality, they did not even have any attempts. yes
  20. New Year day 15 November 2019 13: 59 New
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    Well, if Russia is not ready, then Poland is definitely ready laughing
  21. kimlykvp 15 November 2019 17: 34 New
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    Poland is the birthplace of the great victories of Polish arms. Who better than the Poles to judge the armies of the countries of the world from the filing of their Yankees masters. They all know
  22. Ivan Osipov 16 November 2019 21: 39 New
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    The conclusions of the great Polish analysts are not worth a damn.
  23. pafegosoff 18 November 2019 12: 02 New
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    Enough nap pshek enough!
  24. LeftPers 20 November 2019 16: 06 New
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    "... conclusions sucked from the finger ...." from the finger?
    "... Warsaw analysts ..." are the users of the Warsaw anal?