Warsaw analysts: Russia is not ready for a nuclear war


Still, it is good that in the world there are such two countries as Ukraine and Poland, as well as the nano-powers of the Baltic states. Without them, life and the information field would be dull and gray. How much joy and healthy, and sometimes just hysterical laughter, is given only by the Ukrainian media! But politicians, generals and just grassroots "avatars" of the "most powerful army of the Universe"? It's just a storehouse for jokes, a sea of ​​laughter and tons of valuable information for practicing psychiatrists. Bloggers with analysts are not far behind them. Poland in this regard is sometimes able to give a hundred points ahead even to Ukraine. That's what happened now. This time, on the stage with its stand-up show, a certain “Warsaw Institute” - the “think tank” of Polish origin and location, with its “exploding the Internet” news that “Russia is not ready for a nuclear war,” appears.

Amazing discoveries of Warsaw analysis masters


An article posted on the institute’s website claims that the recent strategic command post exercises (SKSHU) of the Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces Grom-2019 allegedly showed that "Russia's strategic arsenals are well below the level expected by the authorities." Like, Putin himself saw this personally, being "at the main command post." This is the Poles who mean by it the National Center for Defense of the Russian Federation. In fact, the control of the armed forces and especially the strategic nuclear forces during such exercises, as during the war, goes through the system of a central protected command post, reserve protected command posts, protected command and control units and, most importantly, air and mobile command posts. And in the NTsUO it is simply duplicated. Polish "analysts" (the quotation marks are perfectly appropriate here) believe that Putin "personally became convinced of this by pressing a button and seeing that his order was not executed - the rocket did not take off." We are obviously talking about the fact that one of the two launches of the R-29РКУ-02 Station-02 SLBM from the Ryazan RPKSN of the Red Banner Pacific Fleet (CTOF) was canceled at the Thunder School.


For some reason, the Polish think tank considers this cancellation to be a “serious accident” at the “climax of the exercise,” and that “only single missile launches were carried out before”. The level of knowledge about our strategic nuclear forces and test methods is simply fantastic, to be sure.

Volleys of "Autumn Shootout"


In fact, any combat missile system of the naval component of the strategic nuclear forces is always tested by volley launches in the 2 and 4 SLBMs, and the assets of our strategic nuclear forces include the unique Behemoth-2 operation, when the whole RPKSN ammunition, 667BDRM, was launched in one salvo, that is, 16 missiles (well, most of the missiles have been replaced by flying models for throwing launches with the inclusion of the first stage, but this is unprincipled). And what's more, even a new cruiser handed over to the armament, as a rule, carries out volley launch of 2 missiles. At the same time, the Polish “institute” for some reason believes that, in particular, only X-55 air-based KRs were used in the exercises, although this antique modification was not there, and the difference between this missile and the X-55MS and non-nuclear X-555 is very large, not to mention the X-101 and X-102, which are completely different generation rockets. The Poles themselves note that the Grom had a record number of missile launches (and all launched were successful), but this record was due to the long-range missiles of land, sea and air bases, as well as the Iskander-M missile systems.

Actually, the strategic radius BR was launched as much as in all other "autumn shootings", "autumn nuclear wars" (and sometimes spring) - 3-4 missiles of all types, usually 1-2 ICBMs, and 1-2 SLBMs. Moreover, SLBMs launched from the KTOF to the firing range in the North, that is, to the west, are usually counted as an enemy attack, that is, the United States. And in this role, in recent years, usually the SSBN, etc. 667BDR, has been played, in particular, by Ryazan (which now has remained one of the entire project in the ranks). For a number of reasons, the new 955 Aircraft Launchers with the "Clubs" have not yet been fired in this direction (these reasons have nothing to do with their combat readiness and missiles in general, reasons of a completely different nature). But launching from west to east is already our oncoming, reciprocal oncoming or retaliatory strike, or even a “strike at the appointed time” against the American adversary-aggressor. And the scenario and course of the current exercises, when it reaches the American headquarters, will provide a lot of sad food for thought and reasons for action. What is the drama of canceling (for an unknown reason) the launch of one of the two designated missiles - it is not clear to any of the experts, this is quite a working moment. But on the other hand, in our press and blogs, this case was discussed in every way, and, as usual, the "opposition" was the most zealous of all kinds and colors. And the less authors of such publications and posts understood the issue, the more there was “righteous anger” from them. More precisely, "white noise".

Fingers sucked out


Launches are usually prescribed the oldest and most problematic missiles. And if one of them during the test failed one of the systems or a deviation in the parameters, then there is no problem with this. And the R-29РКУ-02, although it received this index during the modernization, but from the already very old R-29L SLBM, its carrier is the only cruiser that can serve, maybe for a year, maybe two - that's all. How will the combat SSBN become history "Prison of the Nations." Recall that so the naval witters called this project for numerous grates for draining water in the area of ​​the superstructure around the missile silos, which on 667BDRM avenue were replaced with one large slot for reasons of low noise. If the Polish "analysts" were so impressed with this episode that they made a "deep" conclusion from it about the incomplete readiness of the strategic nuclear forces, and in general the nuclear forces and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and Russia for a nuclear war, then they are sincerely sorry, like those doctors to whom they will inevitably be forced to turn.

Surely something, and the reliability of our strategic nuclear missile arsenals has been repeatedly confirmed and does not raise questions. And in a combat situation, the failure of one missile or even several on the same cruiser does not mean anything - all this will be easily blocked by warheads of other missiles from other cruisers. After all, two or more combat units from different missiles are assigned to quite important targets - suddenly there will be a failure and the target will not be hit, so the combat unit from another missile (and not from the same one) will correct the situation.

Who really has problems


Polish "experts" did not stop there. They also analyzed the official data exchange between the parties to the START-3 Treaty in their own way. Noting that Russia has offset credited warheads (which are hundreds of charges less than actually deployed, in view of the rules for offsetting bombers) than the United States, but Americans have more carriers. Which, incidentally, does not play a special role, given that the Americans have fewer "return potential" charges, but the Poles do not write about this. But they believe that Moscow is very afraid that the START-3 will not be extended, and this will cause a strategic arms race, and our "arsenals leave much to be desired." Obviously, the Warsaw Institute is not aware that Russia has no problems either with the production of new, and radically new, carriers, or with the production of new warheads, and it proves this by deed, having produced over 6 ICBMs and SLBMs over the past 200 of previous years and stockpiling for them or installing on these carriers, presumably, about 1,6 thousand charges of a new type, because the old ones are not suitable there. And what problems does the United States have that are unable to produce new charges at the moment and will soon be able to again, and even, as it turned out, with very primitive work on remaking the B61 bombs into the B61-12 variant, there are difficulties and delays, and not only them. And the US arms race is not exactly what the US needs in this matter, and the US military is well aware of this, but politicians cannot understand it yet. Russia, through the lips of its president and supreme commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces, has already spoken out that nobody will forcibly extend the Treaty, you don’t want, they say, and don’t.

And if we talk about reliability, then we can raise information about the unsuccessful launches of the Minutemans-3 among the Americans, and there have been such ones in recent years. And even the recent four-missile launch of the Trident-2 D5 SLBM also, by the way, raises questions. The fact is that there was not one volley, but two 2 missiles, with a pause of a couple of days. This may indicate that the launch of the first pair was not as successful as it was announced (say, they did not fit in the given framework for accuracy) and the backup pair of SLBMs with inert equipment was prepared and launched. Why not think-tank from Warsaw to discuss this point? Or to talk about the fact that the new head of the STRATK US Armed Forces immediately declared that extending the resource of carriers of the US strategic nuclear forces to infinity is not an option, and the limits are already close? The American admiral stated this, and not the commander of the Strategic Missile Forces, Colonel General Karakaev.

But among Polish analysts, it seems that servile complexes with respect to the overseas pan are too developed. And if there are problems in that narrow little world in which they live, then, of course, Russia always has it. And to understand the issue under discussion is not fashionable not only in Poland among the "experts", but also in the USA, in Europe, and it happens with us. Just Polish analysts and the media in this regard are far ahead of many. What is there not only! And the revelations that the Russian heavy supersonic anti-ship missiles (and hypersonic) "will not be able to hit the target hundreds of kilometers away, because they will be hindered by the radio horizon." And the fact that Putin, they say, scares the West with "cartoons", and there is nothing behind them. Although the first regiment of the 15A35-71 ICBMs with the planning high-power winged unit 15Y71 "Vanguard" is already taking up combat duty, and with the rest of the "cartoons", things are moving.

And what a magnificent, enchanting reaction there was to the recent "drape" of the Americans from their temporary bases in Syria, on Polish news portals. Like, now the Russians will at least see how people live (rather, they will see how they don’t behave, throwing garbage under the fence of the base), because they don’t have washing machines in their parts, no stoves, no microwaves, no TVs. And it’s not only newspaper scribblers, but ordinary users actively supported such a heresy! And against this background, timid voices of few adequate analysts and commentators were not heard, calling to watch a video of how the Russians actually live and serve at their bases in Syria or in Russia, how people actually live in Russia, and in general, it’s better to concentrate on the fact that in exactly the same way as from Syria, the Americans will flee from Poland, leaving the Poles to kill according to the good old tradition of Western alliance. And what is it not for the Poles to talk about nuclear war, even if it comes down only to the use of tactical nuclear weapons - the Poles will be completely plowed completely by this very tactical nuclear weapons, because once again they make themselves both a target, a training ground, and a battlefield . So far, potentially. But if the mind never returns to their heads, then it really can happen.

And our MO is better not to announce in advance exactly how many missiles it is planned to launch at the next "shootout", as it happened more than once before. So that later incompetent scribblers from near and far abroad, who understand rockets even worse than oranges, do not reproach anything.


As for Russia's readiness for a nuclear war, it is definitely ready for it better than any likely set of adversaries. It’s another matter that we are just not ready to start it just like that, and we hope that our "main potential partners" also have no such desire - they need it even less.
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