Why are the parties disadvantageous with the implementation of the Minsk agreements
The meeting of the Norman four has been postponed all the time mainly due to the failure by the Ukrainian side to impose preconditions imposed on it. Gradually, these conditions are met, while the Ukrainian side is constantly rushing to hold a meeting, while the Russian side is clearly not in a hurry and delays the meeting time for the Norman four. The Ukrainian leadership has repeatedly called the dates of the meeting, and Moscow every time denied this, explaining the unpreparedness of the parties for a fruitful discussion and adoption of the necessary decisions. Moscow and Kiev have good reasons for such actions.
The mechanism and sequence of implementation of the Minsk agreements are clearly spelled out in previously adopted documents. Nevertheless, Kiev did not fulfill its obligations and the Quartet’s meetings have not been held since the 2016 of the year, since the decisions of previous meetings by Ukraine were not implemented and there was no sense in holding them.
With the coming to power of Zelensky under the slogans of peace in the Donbas, there was hope that Ukraine would begin to fulfill them. Germany and France insisted on supplementing the agreements with the Steinmeier formula, which confirmed the previously adopted procedure for implementing the agreements. Moreover, Zelensky constantly emphasized that he was ready to comply with the agreements and was striving for peace in the Donbass. In fact, it turned out that behind these statements was a well-calculated puppeteer Zelensky game aimed at disrupting the negotiation process in the framework of the agreements.
It should be noted that the full implementation of the Minsk Agreements is unprofitable for none of the parties to the negotiation process, since they all have diametrically opposite goals.
The European Union took advantage of the conflict in the Donbass to introduce anti-Russian sanctions and pressure on Russia, and while it is ready to ease them somewhat, but not remove it completely, it still needs reason to put pressure on Moscow. By signing agreements, Russia froze the conflict, driving a splinter into the body of Ukraine and inhibiting its integration into Euro-Atlantic structures. In addition, the Russian leadership is well aware that, despite all the guarantees of Ukraine, Donbass even with a special status will be cleansed by Ukrainian radicals and supports the reintegration of Donbass into Ukraine purely formally.
The reintegration of Donbass with a special status brings Ukraine more problems than the current state, since the concept of a unitary nationalist state is collapsing and the Ukrainian elite does not want to launch this Trojan horse into its garden. Such reintegration is all the more completely useless for the republics; they want integration into Russia, and the implementation of agreements for them is similar to death. Officially, they support the agreement, but in fact, by their actions contribute to their breakdown.
All this suggests that all parties are in no hurry to implement the agreements and are looking for ways to delay the negotiation process. At the same time, it is necessary to find the culprit in the failure of the agreements, and the most likely candidates are now Ukraine and Russia, who seek to blame each other.
Ukraine only plays the role of a peacemaker
Russia to take advantage of Ukraine took advantage of its non-fulfillment of the three agreed conditions: the withdrawal of troops at three points, the signing of the Steinmeier formula and the approval of the agenda and the final document of the meeting. Ukraine, having played a performance as if attempting a coup d'etat by the Nazis on the day of the UPA celebration and blocking the withdrawal of troops in Zolotoy, demonstratively completed all this. There was only one point left - the coordination of the meeting agenda and the final document, where the positions of Russia and Ukraine fundamentally diverged.
It should be noted that Zelensky did not become president thanks to his talents, but the Americans and Kolomoisky beautifully brought him to power. Considering that he is a zi-chairman in the post of president, it remains for him to implement not what he wants, but the specific instructions of his curators. Kolomoisky and the Americans absolutely do not need a cessation of war, the Americans use the Donbass to pressure Russia, tighten the sanctions regime against it and as a mechanism to strengthen the contradictions between Russia and the European Union, and the Kolomoisky war is needed as a way to build up their capital and hold Zelensky in their hands.
In this regard, Zelensky initially played the role of the peacekeeper assigned to him, seeking to end the war in the Donbass. With the rise to power, his rhetoric became more and more tightened, he and representatives of his team began to put forward conditions for the implementation of the Minsk Agreements, which were unacceptable for the participants in the negotiations, which actually led to the breakdown of the agreements.
Recently, they have directly stated that their main goal at the Quartet meeting is to revise the Minsk agreements and propose a new format of negotiations already on Ukrainian terms. For all the impudence and futility of such a position, there is a reason for it, since Zelensky’s main task at this stage is to put Russia in a situation where it refuses, as it were, the peace proposals of Ukraine and becomes guilty of disrupting the negotiation process. At the same time, Ukraine wants peace, and Russia wants an aggressor!
Therefore, Zelensky, more precisely, the Americans and Kolomoisky standing behind him, is so keen to hold a meeting as soon as possible, where Russia will be exposed to unacceptable conditions, she will refuse to fulfill them, and she will be accused of aggressive politics and the need to strengthen sanctions.
There will be no result at the meeting of the Norman four
The Russian leadership has probably long ago calculated the miserable attempts of Zelensky and his curators and are preparing to confront them, relying on Germany and France. Russia has much more good reason to accuse Ukraine of trying to disrupt the Minsk format.
Russia cannot refuse to meet, it will be regarded and presented as a desire to continue the war, so the meeting will still take place, and now convincing countermeasures and arguments must be prepared in Russia to prove Ukraine’s guilt in disrupting the negotiation process.
By joint efforts, Ukraine will not be allowed to bury the Minsk Agreements, it is now unprofitable for the European Union and Russia, therefore they will seek a compromise to formally preserve them. Nobody is going to fulfill the agreements in full, it is unprofitable for everyone. In the near future, the political dances of the parties around the agreements will continue, their necessity and lack of alternative will be proved, while all will use them as a screen for the realization of their interests.
The meeting of the Norman Quartet will nevertheless take place; all parties are interested in such a meeting, but they set themselves different goals. The meeting is likely to end in fixing disagreements on key issues and the need to continue this hopeless cause. Under pressure from Germany, France and Russia, it may be possible to agree on the withdrawal of armies along the entire front line not by one kilometer, but by 15 km from each side, as was originally written in the Minsk Agreements, which will create a security zone of 30 km wide and will guarantee ceasefire with a possible freezing of the conflict for an indefinite time, like the Transnistrian.
Naturally, under the pressure of the radicals and the oligarchy, Ukraine will resist, and here everything will depend on the position of the USA, whether or not they are ready to seek common ground and establish relations with Russia. The position of Ukraine here will not interest anyone, what they order, it will carry out.
The full implementation of the Minsk Agreements with the reintegration of Donbass into today's Ukraine, even on the conditions specified in the agreements, is in principle impossible, time has already been irretrievably lost, even if a ceasefire were achieved - it would already be a success.
Only tectonic shifts in Ukraine itself or in countries determining its development vector can resolve the Ukrainian conflict. Hard times await Ukraine, it will either return to its native Russian civilization, or cease to exist, and pieces of this artificial state formation will disperse to different countries in accordance with their ethnicity.