Military Review

Or NATO standard, or gas transit. Does Zelensky have a plan?

56



President Zelensky is seeking a meeting with Russian President Putin, but only in the "Norman format." For the sake of this meeting, the decision of the heads of the "Norman format" on the deployment of forces on three sections of the front line in the Donbas from the 2016 of the year, and not at all for the implementation of the Minsk agreements, is being implemented. What does Zelensky want from this meeting? What is behind his general phrases about the need to end the war in the Donbass and "look into each other's eyes"?

Secret plan?


It follows from Zelensky’s public rhetoric that he would like to negotiate in the “Norman format” to replace the Minsk agreements, withdraw from them altogether, or change them so that Kiev propagandists could declare “overtax” over Moscow in the Donbass. All this is completely unrealistic, because for Moscow the “Norman format” is only a tool for Ukraine to implement the Minsk agreements. The signing of the "Steinmeier formula" and the withdrawal of forces in the Donbass are steps towards the implementation of the Minsk.

Therefore, there is a suspicion that there is also a secret "plan of Ze" on face-to-face negotiations with Putin, with whom Ze can safely meet only in the "Norman format." In order not to receive a new hail of accusations of surrender from the Nazi nationalists. In the "Norman format," he can meet with Putin and formally raise any questions. Even the question of the Crimea.

In general, Zelensky’s possible plans are quite clearly indicated by his former patron and current gray cardinal Igor Kolomoisky: he generally forgot about Crimea until better times and actually offers to let Donbass go free swimming, where, according to him, there is a “civil war”. It may well be that Kolomoisky is talking about what Zelensky is thinking of talking to Putin.

Roughly speaking, Kolomoisky proposes to “sell” Crimea and the Donbass to Moscow in exchange for special economic relations, which in Ukraine some leaders already call words “reparations from Moscow” pleasant for Svidomo patriots. “Sell” to Russia that which Kiev no longer belongs to anyway. For big money, for the supply of free gas, oil and electricity, for example. Reason: Zelensky cannot perform Minsk, or he is not allowed to perform, which is the same for Moscow.

And a personal meeting?


For such a “sale” Zelensky needs an official personal meeting with Putin without any preconditions. Zelensky could imagine such a meeting as "overpowering Moscow" to his Svidomo nationalists. Of course, Russia may refuse to “buy” what it already owns: Crimea simply will not discuss it, but in the Donbass it will offer to implement the Minsk agreements. Then Zelensky can make some kind of demarche.

All this is easily calculated, so Moscow is unlikely to put Zelensky’s and Putin’s personal meeting on the agenda of the “Normandy” summit, this becomes more and more clear in Zelensky’s office, and there’s less and less talk about the “Norman format”.

In principle, the subject of negotiations for the "Normans" is: the continuation of the withdrawal of forces in the Donbas along the entire front. Such an agenda for the meeting will suit everyone except Zelensky: it can hardly be passed off as "overpowering Putin."

Moscow does not need this “Norman” summit without further implementation of the Minsk agreements. It was interesting for Moscow to resolve the issue of continuing Ukrainian gas transit on acceptable terms, but after Denmark decided to remove its restrictions on SP-2 in this sense, it is hardly interesting. Therefore, the "Norman format" is unlikely to take place this year.

It turns out that Ukraine is not going to carry out “Minsk” further, and Russia does not need a “Norman” summit to revise “Minsk”. To hold a summit only for the sake of the separation of forces in some other sectors of the front in the Donbass? For this, negotiations in the Contact Group in Minsk are enough. Most likely, Moscow will simply say that Kiev is not ready to implement the Minsk agreements in full and will postpone the summit indefinitely when it is ready.

And about gas


The transit of gas through Ukraine is now coming to the fore, which may be terminated by Gazprom from the new year due to the absence of a transit agreement. Moscow is moving the dispute to the level of business entities and is preparing, it seems, to take advantage of Naftogaz's reassuring statements that Ukraine will do without gas transit. Energy Minister Alexei Orzhel said that Ukraine will have enough coal and gas, even if Russia stops the transit of gas in the 2020 year. That's good.

In general, gas transit is a privileged cooperation; Russia cannot maintain such cooperation with Ukraine, which is pursuing a Russophobic policy. This is nonsense. Russia cannot economically support the Ukrainian anti-Russian pro-American project. Either the NATO standard or gas transit: Kiev will have to choose.
Author:
Photos used:
twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa
56 comments
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  1. Borik
    Borik 12 November 2019 15: 09 New
    +3
    Again, Okraina intends to blackmail Russia. And what is she hoping for?
    1. Greg Miller
      Greg Miller 12 November 2019 15: 25 New
      +1
      Zelensky from Putin needs recognition of himself as president of Ukraine.
      1. APES
        APES 12 November 2019 15: 30 New
        +5
        Zelensky from Putin needs

        upload photos to instagram
        1. Vladimir16
          Vladimir16 12 November 2019 15: 52 New
          +1
          Quote: Greg Miller
          Zelensky from Putin needs recognition of himself as president of Ukraine.

          That's right.
          But not yet earned.
          He did not stop the war. I was not cured of Russophobia.
          What recognition about dreams? request
          1. rich
            rich 12 November 2019 23: 31 New
            +2
            Zelensky from Putin needs ...

            everything is just Zelensky is seeking this meeting for fear of disobeying Trump. like the classics - "not for profit, but only by the will of those who sent me .... well, etc." yes
      2. sniperino
        sniperino 13 November 2019 00: 02 New
        0
        Quote: Greg Miller
        Zelensky from Putin needs recognition of himself as president of Ukraine.
        If only with a trial period.
      3. New Year day
        New Year day 13 November 2019 07: 29 New
        +1
        Quote: Greg Miller
        Zelensky from Putin needs recognition of himself as president of Ukraine.

        What for?
  2. iConst
    iConst 12 November 2019 15: 13 New
    0
    In general, gas transit is a privileged cooperation; Russia cannot maintain such cooperation with Ukraine, which is pursuing a Russophobic policy.

    There is not only this and other listed points.
    The situation is very complicated. This formula has a lot of unknowns and variables: the upcoming dollar crisis, contradictions in the European Union, the closure of the Israel project, and much, much more. And global players are trying to anticipate the situation.

    And Ukraine is not a subject yet.
    1. APES
      APES 12 November 2019 15: 25 New
      -1
      project closure israel

      when? and then I have a house there, on the Red Sea, in Elat - to sell already?
      1. iConst
        iConst 12 November 2019 15: 37 New
        -1
        Quote: APES
        project closure israel

        when? and then I have a house there, on the Red Sea, in Elat - to sell already?

        By year 22. This is Kissanger said five years ago. Actually, Crimea was supposed to be relocated. Do you think that Ukraine has just begun this way?

        Now massive residential construction is underway in the south of Ukraine - with a sharp impoverishment and a decline in the Ukrainian population, who is building it and why?

        But this does not mean that in the 22nd everything - then it will cease to be a secret and the process will stretch for several years under warranty.
        1. APES
          APES 12 November 2019 15: 44 New
          -3
          Now south

          Vernyak - Zelensky Jew
        2. Golovan Jack
          Golovan Jack 12 November 2019 15: 47 New
          +2
          Quote: iConst
          Now massive residential construction is underway in the south of Ukraine - with a sharp impoverishment and a decline in the Ukrainian population, who is building it and why?

          Gosss .. why not see on the Internet ...

          And if it doesn’t happen, you will eat your own sock, honestly related for a week. Hop? wink

          Quote: iConst
          this does not mean that in the 22nd everything

          Well ... rotten excuses have already begun ... deadlines, sister, deadlines laughing
          1. Vladimir16
            Vladimir16 12 November 2019 15: 54 New
            +1
            Quote: Golovan Jack
            you eat your own sock,

            And you?
            If happen wink laughing
            And why don't you wear clean socks every day? request
            1. Golovan Jack
              Golovan Jack 12 November 2019 16: 13 New
              -2
              Quote: Vladimir16
              Why don't you wear clean socks every day?

              And why did you decide that? wink laughing

              Quote: Vladimir16
              And you?

              Do not meddle, good advice yes

              Leave: this is a dispute between the Slavs,
              Home, old dispute, weighted by fate,
              A Question You Will Not Resolve
  3. Greg Miller
    Greg Miller 12 November 2019 15: 33 New
    -7
    It turns out that Ukraine is not going to carry out further “Minsk”


    “Minsk” is what ONLY the leadership of Russia continues to believe stupidly.
    1. Golovan Jack
      Golovan Jack 12 November 2019 15: 54 New
      +4
      Quote: Greg Miller
      ONLY the leadership of Russia

      Germany - no? France - not either?

      Swimmer, explain laughing
    2. Ros 56
      Ros 56 12 November 2019 17: 39 New
      +1
      Think primitively, smart people have long been convinced that this is not so. The near future will show who Greg and who Miller.
  4. prior
    prior 12 November 2019 15: 50 New
    +11
    What can we talk about with Zelensky?
    Seiner "Nord" is not returned.
    Crimean museums did not return the gold.
    3 lard credit hustled.
    According to the concluded agreements, all courts write slogans. Well, Russia will conclude a new transit agreement with them, and the next day they will again to The Hague or Stockholm with a yabid, that they have underpaid money or under-pumped gas.
    For the transit of reverse gas, despite the fact that there is no reverse, but there is a selection from the transit pipe, the money for the transit is fully received and silent in the pipe!
    "Shitting on the mat" regularly.
    Yes, only for the bas-relief of Zhukov in Odessa and the house of trade unions to Zelensky to approach yourself do not respect.
    No meetings!
    1. Lelek
      Lelek 12 November 2019 17: 48 New
      +1
      Quote: prior
      Well, Russia will conclude a new transit agreement with them ...

      hi
      Most likely this will happen, but only on Russian conditions

      Kiev’s are already bustling, cunning and fighting in a tantrum that doesn’t affect not only the Russian Federation, but also former EU sponsors, trustees who were insured against Ukrainian “show off” in advance.
      1. Barmaleyka
        Barmaleyka 12 November 2019 18: 07 New
        -7
        Quote: Lelek
        Most likely this will happen, but only on Russian conditions

        Well, at a disadvantage, just we, so, are not sure about "OUR conditions"
        p / s / tales about opal can of course be told, but if you're interested, just count the ALL possible pipe throughput without Ukraine
        1. Lelek
          Lelek 12 November 2019 18: 18 New
          +1
          Quote: Barmaleyka
          not sure about "OUR conditions"

          hi
          Not sure - don't hug. And EU passes through the northern and Turkish streams have been calculated and fully satisfy the needs of the "Europe" (with the possible exception of Poland and the Baltic states, which have stuck to American very democratic LNG). With regards to the "Opal", it will be unlocked if the cockerel bites. <anyway I put you +> yes
          1. Barmaleyka
            Barmaleyka 12 November 2019 18: 29 New
            -6
            Quote: Lelek
            And EU passes through the northern and Turkish streams have been calculated and fully satisfy the needs of the "Europe" (with the possible exception of Poland and the Baltic states, which have stuck to American very democratic LNG).

            In 2018, Gazprom Export delivered 200,8 billion cubic meters to European countries. m gas
            the throughput of ALL Russian pipes including SP2 without noisiness is about 150
            1. Lelek
              Lelek 12 November 2019 18: 34 New
              -4
              Quote: Barmaleyka
              about 150

              This is at 70% of the pipeline load according to EU regulations.
              1. Barmaleyka
                Barmaleyka 12 November 2019 18: 56 New
                -3
                this is bandwidth
            2. Astronaut
              Astronaut 12 November 2019 22: 45 New
              -1
              throughput of ALL Russian pipes including SP2

              Interestingly, and what amount of supply did you calculate for the unfinished gas pipeline?
              1. Barmaleyka
                Barmaleyka 12 November 2019 22: 59 New
                -3
                Quote: Astronaut
                Interestingly, and what amount of supply did you calculate for the unfinished gas pipeline?

                in google banned ?!
                once again, I gave the PASSING CAPACITY, for SP2 - 55 billion m³ per year
            3. Barmaleyka
              Barmaleyka 13 November 2019 10: 37 New
              -3
              well yes minus it’s easier to put than to add five numbers
    2. Xnumx vis
      Xnumx vis 12 November 2019 18: 59 New
      +1
      Quote: prior
      What can we talk about with Zelensky?
      Seiner "Nord" is not returned.
      Crimean museums did not return the gold.
      3 lard credit hustled.
      am
      The North Crimean Canal was blocked (Built the entire USSR!), Zh.D. traffic was blocked in Crimea, air links with Russia were stopped, electric lines going to Crimea were blown up, people of Russia were rotted in every possible way, all kinds of sanctions were imposed and imposed, people were grabbed by our people in Ukraine, and they could be added to infinity closed and banned, the language is Russian, schools The Russians, the books of the Russians, have not fulfilled all sorts of state orders of Russia for military equipment and more, and more! am
  5. parusnik
    parusnik 12 November 2019 15: 51 New
    +3
    Thank God, the article is at least without the biden and the rest ...
    1. The leader of the Redskins
      The leader of the Redskins 12 November 2019 16: 38 New
      +4
      But why on Tuesday? Kamenev usually went on Mondays and Thursdays !!!
  6. Seld
    Seld 12 November 2019 15: 59 New
    0
    And about the gas .......
    I understand that the journalist (s) should (s) write something, because by doing this he (and) earns (s) a living .... with caviar.
    And yet .... If in politics, in the world which; in geopolitics, which is also global; in the economy (!!!!!), which happens not only as a kitchen, but also as a macro, everything was decided so simply, ohhhhh ..... THE PROBLEMS WOULD NOT BE AT ALL !!!!! And in the whole world there has long been one world ...
    Alas, sir ...., but the realities, firstly, look different and goraaaaaazdo multifaceted; realities, secondly, cannot be accessible to general discussion in the trash (oh, sorry, on the Internet); thirdly, by the way: when a neighbor has “FSE is bad and has a good time,” this will certainly make people uncomfortable.
    Who is sumlevoets, come in and the student is 5 years old at MGIMO. They will teach everything, explain everything. Including and journalist (s).
  7. IvanT
    IvanT 12 November 2019 16: 03 New
    -1
    If only the Darkest did not suffer on humanism, when the valve is closed!
    1. Barmaleyka
      Barmaleyka 12 November 2019 16: 44 New
      -3
      Quote: IvanT
      when the valve is shut!

      they won’t block it, otherwise we’ll violate the gas supply agreement for the gay people
      1. IvanT
        IvanT 13 November 2019 10: 07 New
        -1
        Overlap. There were precedents. And smart geyropeytsy pump gas to the beginning of the kipish. What is Gazprom reporting about + 15%
        1. Barmaleyka
          Barmaleyka 13 November 2019 10: 36 New
          -5
          Yes, study the mat part at last, without the Ukrainian pipe Gazprom is NOT ABLE to pump volumes at the level of 2018
          1. IvanT
            IvanT 13 November 2019 11: 10 New
            -3
            We studied the mat and part. Everything is possible if the snot on a fist is not wound
            1. Barmaleyka
              Barmaleyka 13 November 2019 11: 48 New
              -6
              Well, what can YOU do if the capacity of the pipe without the Sumerian part is not able to pump the volume purchased in 18, no, I don’t mind if this all goes to the domestic market, but we don’t need to yell that we can fulfill the contracts

              p / s / can you show in numbers HOW you can ?!
              1. IvanT
                IvanT 13 November 2019 13: 54 New
                -2
                Think a little narrowly .... Along the pipe there are alternative means of delivery. Learn the materiel). In order to fulfill the contracts, you can buy from competitors. The question is price. Someone whines, and someone does.
                1. Barmaleyka
                  Barmaleyka 13 November 2019 14: 46 New
                  -2
                  Once again, broadly and in numbers, provide data
  8. tihonmarine
    tihonmarine 12 November 2019 16: 04 New
    0
    In general, gas transit is a privileged cooperation; Russia cannot maintain such cooperation with Ukraine, which is pursuing a Russophobic policy. This is nonsense.
    It’s like two friend-neighbors live in the village, one ownerless across the road, a cat and a rooster from the living creatures, and a cow and pigs in the other. Well, the second one sells butter, bacon and meat to a friend all the time for cheap milk. Everything was fine and the guests went to the guys. And then the first considered herself the first beauty in the village and the second began to constantly swear in public, call names and steal tomatoes, cucumbers from the garden. She was the second and said, “Until Dunk becomes a human being, you don’t have either milk butter or meat
    sala. And more so that I would not see you in my yard. "Well, who would sell something to such Dunké? This does not remind anyone of you.
  9. Igorpl
    Igorpl 12 November 2019 16: 18 New
    -2
    The plan really seems to be there, it’s so picky.
    1. Lelek
      Lelek 12 November 2019 17: 56 New
      0
      Quote: Igorpl
      The plan really seems to be there, it’s so picky.

      hi
      There is no plan, there are Wishlist and not 10, not 100, but wholesale "in Ukrainian". But after all, as the Italians say: "it is not enough to want, it is necessary for it to stand ...". So, my condolences to Svidomo.
  10. Barmaleyka
    Barmaleyka 12 November 2019 16: 43 New
    -4
    In general, gas transit is a privileged cooperation; Russia cannot maintain such cooperation with Ukraine, which is pursuing a Russophobic policy. This is nonsense. Russia cannot economically support the Ukrainian anti-Russian pro-American project. Either the NATO standard or gas transit: Kiev will have to choose.
    it’s not clear why lying, we unfortunately can’t do it today (even with a working joint venture 2) without Ukrainian transit, today's volume of deliveries to Europe cannot be completely closed without noisiness, it’s not clear what these dances with a tambourine are for
    1. The comment was deleted.
  11. Amateur
    Amateur 12 November 2019 16: 59 New
    -5

    Well, he knows how the “butt” with Russia ends. But anyway, "Cheeks puffs"
  12. BAI
    BAI 12 November 2019 17: 03 New
    +3
    about the continuation of Ukrainian gas transit on acceptable terms, but after the decision of Denmark to remove its restrictions on SP-2 in this sense, it is hardly interesting.

    Russia cannot maintain such cooperation with Ukraine pursuing Russophobic policies. This is nonsense. Russia cannot economically support the Ukrainian anti-Russian pro-American project. Either the NATO standard or gas transit: Kiev will have to choose.

    If anyone has to choose, then Russia. Through Ukraine it is necessary to drive 40-60 billion cubic meters per year in any situation (praise to the greed of Gazprom, which concluded contracts no matter what). Moreover, the figure may be greater, but not less.
    1. Sergey Ka
      Sergey Ka 12 November 2019 18: 51 New
      +2
      Now, for this comment, they will throw you tomatoes here :) It seems that the majority here, including the author of the article, did not teach arithmetic at school. They cannot compare the volume of Gazprom contracts and the capacity of gas pipelines. Russia will push until January 1 with all its might, then agree to transit, having received partial fulfillment of its requirements. The most important issue is Ukraine’s refusal of lawsuits. The next in importance is the guaranteed volume of pumping. Let's see whose nerves are stronger - in Russia, Ukraine or the EU
    2. Geo⁣
      Geo⁣ 12 November 2019 21: 41 New
      -5
      Quote: BAI

      Through Ukraine it is necessary to drive 40-60 billion cubic meters per year in any situation (praise to the greed of Gazprom, which concluded contracts no matter what).

      In Ukraine, the mass of hungry parasites, ready for anything, just to not work. If Gazprom suddenly does not want to make the minimum pumping, I won’t be surprised that one of these parasites, under the next clumsy slogan, will blow up a couple of KSok and the pipeline will stall for technical reasons.
    3. Astronaut
      Astronaut 12 November 2019 23: 08 New
      -2
      You are mistaken: the "lack" of capacities is about 16 billion m3. out of 87 “Ukrainian” billions, 55 will go through SP2 and 16 along one of the threads of the Turkish stream.
  13. Mainbeam
    Mainbeam 12 November 2019 17: 03 New
    -5
    Russia cannot maintain such cooperation with Ukraine, pursuing Russophobic politics.

    Yes, okay ?! All of Europe-Russophobic politics)))) So Brexnya pro-Kremlin.

    Or NATO standard, or gas transit

    But this is pressure with the help of energy carriers, from which Gazprom denies by hook or by crook in relation to Europe in the international arena according to the same pattern that the Americans are laying for democracy. But in the modern world, the same Americans are taking full advantage of economic leverage. So the flag of Moscow in hand.
    1. xax
      xax 13 November 2019 02: 55 New
      +1
      Quote: MainBeam
      Whole europe

      That is strangers. And Ukraine is flesh from flesh. We have decided to punish our own seriously.
  14. Ros 56
    Ros 56 12 November 2019 17: 34 New
    -3
    Of course he has a plan, so high-quality, he uses it every day, and then begins to carry such nonsense that his ears fade. lol
  15. Terenin
    Terenin 12 November 2019 17: 41 New
    +6
    President Zelensky is seeking a meeting with Russian President Putin, but only ...

    ... however, only now, for negotiations with Zelensky, Moscow has a special Putin

  16. Berkut24
    Berkut24 12 November 2019 18: 16 New
    +1
    All politicians say that this meeting is likely to be the last. The EU says that if the meeting breaks, it’s because of Russia, because Ukraine type, did everything it could and as if took something away ...
    In fact, the issue of gas transit just decides whether Russia will continue to feed Ukraine, or all the costs from the New Year from the New Year will fall on the shoulders of the "luminaries of democracy." Just these 2 questions, as I think it is no coincidence, coincided in time.
    Does Russia need to rush somewhere in this situation?
  17. rocket757
    rocket757 12 November 2019 18: 41 New
    -2
    But he has a transparent platform .... everyone can see that there is NO nest egg!
  18. Ryaruav
    Ryaruav 12 November 2019 19: 27 New
    0
    so that Ukraine lags behind the Donbass, they require preferences, but in this case we will have to spend money on Ukraine and the Donbass why pay twice - the Donbass is a Russian region and it will take less money than on a free outskirts
  19. NF68
    NF68 13 November 2019 16: 29 New
    0
    It seems that Ukraine will not see as its ears neither the NATO standard, nor the transit of a large amount of gas. Dry the oars, horses.