What is behind the speeches of the radicals against Zelensky
The confrontation in Ukraine between the Zelensky team and the radicals is increasing every day. The trigger for the active phase of the confrontation was the signing of the Steinmeier formula. The war party, represented by "gunboats" and radicals, had long been waiting for a reason to attack Zelensky, took advantage of this.
It should be noted that the signing of the “formula” did not essentially change anything, the “formula” only determined the order of implementation of the Minsk agreements and the procedure for holding elections in the Donbass, while the wishes of the radicals about holding elections after the transfer of control of the border to Ukraine were not taken into account.
In the confrontation, two points of view clashed on resolving the conflict: the radicals insisted on continuing the war to a victorious end, and the Zelensky team, under pressure from the West, was trying to play a peaceful version of the implementation of the agreements.
Opposing parties have different support, Zelensky enjoys the support of the overwhelming majority of the population, who long for a peaceful resolution of the conflict in the Donbas, and the support of the West, which at the given stage is interested in the cessation of hostilities out of its geopolitical interests.
"Gunpowders" and radicals with their military hysteria completely discredited themselves under the previous regime and almost now have no support in society, but they "keep the street" using active members of radical organizations. They are able to bring thousands of ideological and paid supporters to provocative rallies, which the police do not touch upon the command of the leadership of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and often take under their protection.
Naturally, the question arises: why does the new government condone the radicals and do not take the measures prescribed by law for them? The whole trouble of Zelensky is that from the moment he came to power, he did not create a power block loyal to himself. Today he has no one to rely on, in the SBU there have been changes only at the very top, without affecting the managerial vertical, moreover, this special service is not intended to suppress street riots.
The army is in the same situation, only the leadership of the Ministry of Defense has been replaced by people from the old guard who fought in the Donbass and defend the continuation of the war. The cessation of hostilities in the army is not popular, Zelensky in the army is not the authority for which she is ready to stand up a mountain.
The most deplorable situation is for Zelensky with the most powerful power structure of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, including the national guard, border troops, police and the Ministry of Emergencies with a total number of more than 200 thousand people. This structure is subordinate to Avakov, the initiator and organizer of the outbreak of war in the Donbass, the only person from the old team who remained in the structure of the new government. Avakov is not just a member of the team of the previous regime, he is one of the ideologists and leaders in the process of the formation of the Nazi regime in Ukraine and has never hidden his views. In addition, Avakov has a very serious influence on the radicals of Biletsky and on the initiative of Avakov in the structure of the National Guard under the fascist symbols was formed the regiment "Azov".
Zelensky made concessions to Kolomoisky and introduced into his team a serious opponent in the person of Avakov, who has a serious power resource and who for many reasons will look for a convenient excuse to speak out against Zelensky.
In the power structures Zelensky has no one to rely on, he understands that the security forces will be ready to betray and oppose him at any time. Today, he pays for his short-sighted policy of organizing a vertical line of command in the power structures, without the support of which he could very quickly lose power.
An explosive mixture of "gunboats" and radicals, with the connivance of law enforcement agencies, could constitute a serious threat to the Zelensky regime. Now there is a test of strength and intimidation of Zelensky. The first rallies and protests in different cities showed that the radicals did not have much power, only a few thousand supporters took to the streets, the bulk of the population ignored the actions of the radicals.
Zelensky came to power on the slogans of peace in the Donbas, and the vast majority of the population expects him to take concrete actions in this direction. It would seem that, using such massive support, he can calmly promote the idea of ending the war, without particularly looking at the actions of the radicals. But his supporters are a passive majority, unable to defend their interests and resist the radicals. In this regard, Zelensky has no one to rely on, he has no support from the security forces and the active part of society, and he is practically defenseless against them.
The radicals intimidate Zelensky with a new Maidan, disagreeing with his policy aimed, as it were, at the implementation of the Minsk agreements, which theoretically can lead to peace. Moreover, the possibility of implementing such a scenario is negligible, since the Maidan can take place only if certain conditions are met.
This requires a request for Maidan inside and outside Ukraine, since it is not a subject of international relations, but an object under the complete control of the West. Ukrainian society wants peace and in the elections clearly demonstrated this by refusing trust in the Poroshenko regime. Radicals with their hysterical calls for war are supported only by a small part of the population, concentrated mainly in Galicia, in other regions this is the lot of marginal groups. The radicals now have no social support in society, their ideas are not in demand and are not popular. In the elections, all together they were able to collect only about 2% of the vote, and that’s it. The oligarchy is also not yet interested in the overthrow of the Zelensky regime, the main enemy of the Kolomoisky oligarchs, and they are trying to organize a united front against it.
Without the support of the West, no Maidan is impossible; in 2004 and 2014, the West supported the radicals, as it was beneficial to him. Now the West, in its geopolitical interests, is interested in ending the conflict in the Donbas and is pushing Zelensky, brought with them to power, to implement the Minsk agreements, which is quite convenient for them and the West is clearly not going to overthrow it.
All this suggests that inside and outside Ukraine there is no customer for the Maidan and the coup, so the actions of the "gunboats" and radicals are doomed to failure. Even if they make a coup, its legitimacy will not be recognized within Ukraine and the West, and they will find themselves in isolation with all the ensuing consequences.
The organizers and puppeteers of street protests perfectly understand this, their main task is to put pressure on Zelensky to tighten the negotiating position in discussing the implementation plan of the Minsk agreements. They also want to force Zelensky to bend under their demands to aggravate relations with Russia.
Kolomoisky and Avakov are waiting and have not yet made any statements. They all understand perfectly: at this stage it is beneficial for them to intimidate Zelensky so that he becomes more manageable and accommodating. To oppose the position of the West supporting Zelensky is unprofitable and dangerous for them, and they will act only within the permissible corridor. On the one hand, they set the radicals against the demands of “stopping the surrender of Ukraine to Putin” and abandon the “Steinmeier formula”, and on the other hand, restrain them from decisive action in relation to the Zelensky regime, whose existence the West is still interested in.
If you look at the "party of war", then it is represented not by those people on whom you must bet and who can win. Poroshenko is no longer needed by anyone, the Americans put him into circulation, he is a wagered card. Among the radicals, Biletsky is trying to rise on a protest wave, he acts as a “Fuhrer” from the plow, hoping to become the leader of a powerful protest movement. He never enjoyed authority among politicians and businessmen and, despised by a significant part of the population, is trying to show his significance, traditionally relying on scumbags and football fans, as he is incapable of more.
The radicals, having seriously strained themselves, can bring only about 15 of their ideological and paid supporters from all over Ukraine and create the appearance of mass protests, but they will not be able to win, because nobody needs them.
Biletsky, using Avakov’s patronage and impunity for his provocative actions, is trying to blackmail the power with his militants and puts ultimatums to her. All this will continue until he goes beyond what is permitted. The siloviki, at the command of the same Avakov, will quickly find a council on him, and he will end up in prison, where he sat before the coup.
They have not yet been touched, because for the Russophobic Zelensky regime, radicals are largely needed as a consumable to create the appearance that the "masses" are resisting the end of the war, and he needs concessions from the West and Russia to calm them down.
With the West’s submission, a political swing has been established in Ukraine, on which one side is as if seeking peace, while the other does not allow it to be done. Moreover, none of them can win, and this process is controlled by Western curators in the right direction, where all the dividends go to the West.
Zelensky now feels confident and is not very concerned about the street protests of the radicals. They know the price, their actions pose no serious danger to the ruling regime, since they act at the same time. Once again, a Russophobic card is played out in Ukraine with the involvement of moderate and radical Russophobes, who are faced with the task of tearing Ukraine away from Russia by all possible means and creating reasons for putting pressure on it.
It should be noted that the signing of the “formula” did not essentially change anything, the “formula” only determined the order of implementation of the Minsk agreements and the procedure for holding elections in the Donbass, while the wishes of the radicals about holding elections after the transfer of control of the border to Ukraine were not taken into account.
The reasons for the confrontation
In the confrontation, two points of view clashed on resolving the conflict: the radicals insisted on continuing the war to a victorious end, and the Zelensky team, under pressure from the West, was trying to play a peaceful version of the implementation of the agreements.
Opposing parties have different support, Zelensky enjoys the support of the overwhelming majority of the population, who long for a peaceful resolution of the conflict in the Donbas, and the support of the West, which at the given stage is interested in the cessation of hostilities out of its geopolitical interests.
"Gunpowders" and radicals with their military hysteria completely discredited themselves under the previous regime and almost now have no support in society, but they "keep the street" using active members of radical organizations. They are able to bring thousands of ideological and paid supporters to provocative rallies, which the police do not touch upon the command of the leadership of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and often take under their protection.
There is no support for security officials
Naturally, the question arises: why does the new government condone the radicals and do not take the measures prescribed by law for them? The whole trouble of Zelensky is that from the moment he came to power, he did not create a power block loyal to himself. Today he has no one to rely on, in the SBU there have been changes only at the very top, without affecting the managerial vertical, moreover, this special service is not intended to suppress street riots.
The army is in the same situation, only the leadership of the Ministry of Defense has been replaced by people from the old guard who fought in the Donbass and defend the continuation of the war. The cessation of hostilities in the army is not popular, Zelensky in the army is not the authority for which she is ready to stand up a mountain.
The most deplorable situation is for Zelensky with the most powerful power structure of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, including the national guard, border troops, police and the Ministry of Emergencies with a total number of more than 200 thousand people. This structure is subordinate to Avakov, the initiator and organizer of the outbreak of war in the Donbass, the only person from the old team who remained in the structure of the new government. Avakov is not just a member of the team of the previous regime, he is one of the ideologists and leaders in the process of the formation of the Nazi regime in Ukraine and has never hidden his views. In addition, Avakov has a very serious influence on the radicals of Biletsky and on the initiative of Avakov in the structure of the National Guard under the fascist symbols was formed the regiment "Azov".
Zelensky made concessions to Kolomoisky and introduced into his team a serious opponent in the person of Avakov, who has a serious power resource and who for many reasons will look for a convenient excuse to speak out against Zelensky.
In the power structures Zelensky has no one to rely on, he understands that the security forces will be ready to betray and oppose him at any time. Today, he pays for his short-sighted policy of organizing a vertical line of command in the power structures, without the support of which he could very quickly lose power.
Is Maidan possible?
An explosive mixture of "gunboats" and radicals, with the connivance of law enforcement agencies, could constitute a serious threat to the Zelensky regime. Now there is a test of strength and intimidation of Zelensky. The first rallies and protests in different cities showed that the radicals did not have much power, only a few thousand supporters took to the streets, the bulk of the population ignored the actions of the radicals.
Zelensky came to power on the slogans of peace in the Donbas, and the vast majority of the population expects him to take concrete actions in this direction. It would seem that, using such massive support, he can calmly promote the idea of ending the war, without particularly looking at the actions of the radicals. But his supporters are a passive majority, unable to defend their interests and resist the radicals. In this regard, Zelensky has no one to rely on, he has no support from the security forces and the active part of society, and he is practically defenseless against them.
The radicals intimidate Zelensky with a new Maidan, disagreeing with his policy aimed, as it were, at the implementation of the Minsk agreements, which theoretically can lead to peace. Moreover, the possibility of implementing such a scenario is negligible, since the Maidan can take place only if certain conditions are met.
This requires a request for Maidan inside and outside Ukraine, since it is not a subject of international relations, but an object under the complete control of the West. Ukrainian society wants peace and in the elections clearly demonstrated this by refusing trust in the Poroshenko regime. Radicals with their hysterical calls for war are supported only by a small part of the population, concentrated mainly in Galicia, in other regions this is the lot of marginal groups. The radicals now have no social support in society, their ideas are not in demand and are not popular. In the elections, all together they were able to collect only about 2% of the vote, and that’s it. The oligarchy is also not yet interested in the overthrow of the Zelensky regime, the main enemy of the Kolomoisky oligarchs, and they are trying to organize a united front against it.
Without the support of the West, no Maidan is impossible; in 2004 and 2014, the West supported the radicals, as it was beneficial to him. Now the West, in its geopolitical interests, is interested in ending the conflict in the Donbas and is pushing Zelensky, brought with them to power, to implement the Minsk agreements, which is quite convenient for them and the West is clearly not going to overthrow it.
All this suggests that inside and outside Ukraine there is no customer for the Maidan and the coup, so the actions of the "gunboats" and radicals are doomed to failure. Even if they make a coup, its legitimacy will not be recognized within Ukraine and the West, and they will find themselves in isolation with all the ensuing consequences.
The organizers and puppeteers of street protests perfectly understand this, their main task is to put pressure on Zelensky to tighten the negotiating position in discussing the implementation plan of the Minsk agreements. They also want to force Zelensky to bend under their demands to aggravate relations with Russia.
Kolomoisky and Avakov are waiting and have not yet made any statements. They all understand perfectly: at this stage it is beneficial for them to intimidate Zelensky so that he becomes more manageable and accommodating. To oppose the position of the West supporting Zelensky is unprofitable and dangerous for them, and they will act only within the permissible corridor. On the one hand, they set the radicals against the demands of “stopping the surrender of Ukraine to Putin” and abandon the “Steinmeier formula”, and on the other hand, restrain them from decisive action in relation to the Zelensky regime, whose existence the West is still interested in.
War party
If you look at the "party of war", then it is represented not by those people on whom you must bet and who can win. Poroshenko is no longer needed by anyone, the Americans put him into circulation, he is a wagered card. Among the radicals, Biletsky is trying to rise on a protest wave, he acts as a “Fuhrer” from the plow, hoping to become the leader of a powerful protest movement. He never enjoyed authority among politicians and businessmen and, despised by a significant part of the population, is trying to show his significance, traditionally relying on scumbags and football fans, as he is incapable of more.
The radicals, having seriously strained themselves, can bring only about 15 of their ideological and paid supporters from all over Ukraine and create the appearance of mass protests, but they will not be able to win, because nobody needs them.
Biletsky, using Avakov’s patronage and impunity for his provocative actions, is trying to blackmail the power with his militants and puts ultimatums to her. All this will continue until he goes beyond what is permitted. The siloviki, at the command of the same Avakov, will quickly find a council on him, and he will end up in prison, where he sat before the coup.
They have not yet been touched, because for the Russophobic Zelensky regime, radicals are largely needed as a consumable to create the appearance that the "masses" are resisting the end of the war, and he needs concessions from the West and Russia to calm them down.
With the West’s submission, a political swing has been established in Ukraine, on which one side is as if seeking peace, while the other does not allow it to be done. Moreover, none of them can win, and this process is controlled by Western curators in the right direction, where all the dividends go to the West.
Zelensky now feels confident and is not very concerned about the street protests of the radicals. They know the price, their actions pose no serious danger to the ruling regime, since they act at the same time. Once again, a Russophobic card is played out in Ukraine with the involvement of moderate and radical Russophobes, who are faced with the task of tearing Ukraine away from Russia by all possible means and creating reasons for putting pressure on it.
- Yuri Apukhtin
- im0-tub-ru.yandex.net
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