"Source of the world." The participants of the operation from the Turkish side
Another invasion
It must be recalled that Turkish troops are not entering Syria for the first time - without any permission from Damascus. Previously, Turkey carried out operations on foreign territory and achieved certain successes, although there were some problems and losses. The "Source of Peace" is becoming a new attempt to solve its problems on foreign territory.
As in previous times, Turkey is in no hurry to disclose all the details of the offensive and its plans. In particular, the strength and structure of the invasion forces are not reported. However stream News from the war zone allows you to create at least the most general picture. On its basis, estimates and forecasts can be made regarding the further development of events from a military point of view.
The operation "Source of Peace" again involved various kinds of troops and types of armed forces. The main work falls on the ground forces in the person of infantry, tanks and artillery. They are supported by the air force. Also, some groups loyal to Ankara and competing with other local organizations were involved in combat work.
By joint efforts, the army and groups are going to oust the Kurdish People’s Self-Defense Forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces from the border regions - “in order to ensure security”. In fact, Turkey is trying to get rid of disagreeable organizations located in the immediate vicinity of its border.
Invasion order
Turkish Armed Forces embarked on combat missions in the afternoon of October 9. The first to engage in combat work were F-16C / D fighter-bombers from the Air Force. Which of the compounds was used for air strikes - has not yet been specified. Perhaps it was the 132 I squadron that participated in Operation Olive Branch at the beginning of last year.
A few hours later, the land part of the operation began. Batteries of self-propelled artillery from positions on Turkish territory struck several enemy targets; shooting was conducted across the border. For some time, the artillery of the ground forces and the shock aviation worked together, hitting targets at different depths.
On the afternoon of October 9, media reported on the advance of the Turkish army to the Syrian border. On the roads leading to the neighboring state, armored vehicles of different classes, vehicles with personnel and support equipment were spotted. At the same time, the size of the Turkish group and the list of involved formations is still unknown.
Late in the evening of the same day, the Turkish military department announced the start of a new phase of the “Source of Peace”. The Turkish army entered Syrian territory. The offensive began at three points on the border. The Turkish military received support from the Syrian National Army.
According to the Turkish Ministry of Defense, in the first hours of Operation Source of Peace, aviation and artillery attacked 181 enemy targets. The success of the strikes was not specified. 10 October attacks on targets continued. How effective the work of the Turkish Armed Forces is is not yet clear.
Turkish army helps the so-called Syrian National Army. This is one of the groups opposing official Damascus and enjoying the support of Ankara. This organization consists of several thousand armed fighters, including previously fought as part of other groups.
Operation participants
Turkey does not provide details of the current operation, but some conclusions can be drawn. The Turkish Air Force in the framework of the “Source of Peace” is represented by at least one squadron of fighter-bombers. Also, the 142 reconnaissance squadron and military transport units may be involved in the work.
The ground forces appear to be represented by several brigades for various purposes - probably from nearby regions. The operation involved infantry, tank, artillery, etc.
Depending on the situation at the front, success or loss, the Turkish Armed Forces can attract new units and units to combat work. First of all, this concerns the formations of the ground forces. Also possible is the rotation of the Air Force squadrons. Thus, the army, solving combat missions, gets the opportunity to test their skills, as well as continue training personnel.
The potential of a loyal Ankara SNA is limited. Like other groups, this “army” is an infantry formation with limited quantities of equipment, often improvised. Logistics support for SNA is far from ideal. A small and poorly equipped group can work only on the sidelines and only provide some support for a full-fledged army representing Turkey.
Possible outcomes
In the operation "Source of Peace" a limited interspecific grouping is represented, representing the ground forces and air forces. Assistance is provided by loyal armed groups. Apparently, the Turkish command considers such a group sufficient to solve the assigned military and political tasks.
The operation aims to defeat several organizations considered terrorist in Ankara. These include the Kurdish National Self-Defense Forces, a longtime enemy of the Turkish army. It is planned to clear part of the Syrian territory from the enemy along the Turkish border to a depth of several tens of kilometers.
The Kurdish militia has a sufficient number, but the equipment is poor. From the point of view of the material part and capabilities, it is inferior to its opponents - even with the support of the SDS.
Nevertheless, the fight against the Kurds is unlikely to be simple, quick and victorious. This is not the first time that the Turkish armed forces have encountered this enemy, and the results of previous battles are far from those desired by Ankara. Self-defense units are well trained and are one of the strongest groups in the region. It will be extremely difficult to squeeze them out of their positions beyond the border “security zone”.
In this regard, the Turkish army may suffer significant losses in manpower and equipment. The first messages of this kind appeared already on October 10. First, Kurdish units reported fighting in the area of Tell Abyad, during which four Turkish tanks were shot down; five tankers died. Soon, the SDS was reported in a battle near the town of Ras al-Ain and the death of 14 Turkish fighters. The Turkish military, in turn, has reported the destruction of more than a hundred enemy fighters - from the start of the operation.
The results of the current operation are unclear and unpredictable. With equal probability, one should expect a solution to the tasks set, a return to starting positions or a change in the lines of contact. An additional factor is the international situation. A number of foreign countries condemned the actions of Turkey, and some even turned to open threats against Ankara.
It is obvious that the Turkish army during the operation "Source of Peace" is far from fighting "at full strength", but even in this case it has quantitative and qualitative superiority over the enemy. However, such superiority does not guarantee victory. The interspecific grouping of the Turkish Armed Forces, created for the new operation, has equal chances of success and failure. She can earn the title of victorious, but one cannot rule out a scenario in which she will suffer losses and fail to cope with the tasks.
- Ryabov Kirill
- Ria.ru, Bbc.com
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