The United States swung to the Black Sea. Russian containment strategy being developed
Black Sea: balance of power
For at least two centuries, the Black Sea region has been a place of confrontation between Russia and competing powers. At first it was the Ottoman Empire, England and France, now it is the United States and its allies in the North Atlantic Alliance.
Cutting off Russia from the Black Sea has been the "golden dream" of the West since time immemorial. With the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the socialist camp, this goal was practically realized. Romania and Bulgaria, who were allies of the USSR, moved into the sphere of influence of the West, the Northern Black Sea Region from Odessa to the Crimea became part of sovereign Ukraine, the Eastern Black Sea Region came under Georgian control.
Only a piece of the Black Sea coast remained in Russia in the Krasnodar Territory with the only serious port - Novorossiysk, and the naval base in Sevastopol, which the Ukrainian authorities were planning to take from Russia. But the happy cards were confused by Euromaidan in Ukraine, which led to the return of the Crimean Peninsula to Russia. As a result, Crimea again turned into a Russian fortress, in fact, the Sea of Azov was under Russian control. Naturally, such a situation could not but alert the American leadership. After all, the balance of power in the Black Sea region has changed significantly.
Another major US failure is the deterioration of relations with Turkey. After Ankara purchased Russian C-400 systems, the American leadership finally became convinced that Turkey, at least as long as Recep Erdogan was in power in it, could not be considered as a reliable ally of the United States. At least, the Turks will definitely not be at war for American interests and even even engage in the deployment of new military bases on their territory. And this circumstance has also become one of the main attacks on US positions in the Black Sea.
Now seven countries have access to the Black Sea - Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, Georgia and Abkhazia, which are not recognized by the international community. Turkey maintains neutrality in US-Russian rivalry, Ukraine and Georgia come out with sharply anti-Russian positions, Romania and Bulgaria are US allies in Eastern Europe. Accordingly, Washington can rely only on four countries of the Black Sea region.
But Georgia, as a military unit, is not of particular interest to the Americans. Ukraine is absorbed in its internal problems, plus it has an unresolved conflict in the Donbass. It remains to rely on Bulgaria and Romania. But the Bulgarians, although in the twentieth century and twice included in anti-Russian blocs - in the First World War and the Second World War, still avoided direct confrontation with the Russians. The mood of the Bulgarian elite both then and now should be separated from the general attitude of ordinary Bulgarians towards Russia and the Russian people. Remains Romania.
Thus, Washington’s fears about its future influence in the Black Sea region are quite understandable. And in these conditions, one of the most important tasks for the United States is maintaining control over Ukraine, further setting up Ukrainian society against Russia, increasing the power of the Ukrainian armed forces and deploying its own military facilities on the territory of this country.
US Strategy in the Black Sea Region
The US government analytical center RAND Corporation, which published a report on countering Russian expansion in the Black Sea, considers it necessary, first of all, to build up the military power and military capabilities of NATO countries with access to the Black Sea. The main focus of the report is on the deployment of missile and coastal defense equipment in Bulgaria and Romania, as well as on improving the military capabilities of Ukraine and Georgia as the main allies of the United States and NATO in the region.
Actually, recently the USA has already demonstrated extremely high military activity in the Black Sea direction. This was noted not so long ago by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who called Washington’s activity unprecedented since the end of the Cold War. In particular, the United States is deploying missile defense systems in Romania, does not hide its intentions to conduct military and naval exercises with Ukraine and Georgia as often as possible.
Perhaps these two countries are most interesting to the American military leadership in terms of confrontation with Russia, as they are closest to our country and have direct borders with it. At the same time, neither Ukraine nor Georgia are members of NATO. And it is very beneficial to the Americans. Indeed, in the event of aggravation of relations with Russia or even a direct armed conflict, the United States, not bound by obligations with Ukraine or Georgia, would prefer not to intervene.
Washington is also not responsible for the actions of Kiev or Tbilisi. It is very convenient to have two countries that can be used to test Russian military and political capabilities, to carry out various provocations, but at the same time do not bear any responsibility for their actions. What are the main steps the United States is taking to increase the military potential of Georgia and Ukraine?
First of all, these are constant military exercises and maneuvers in which the American army plays a key role. So, in July 2019 in Georgia, military exercises Agile Spirit 2019 took place. From the very beginning, the Georgian leadership took these exercises very seriously. So, Lieutenant General Vladimir Chachabayaya called them the next step on the path to Georgia’s entry into the North Atlantic Alliance.
The training was attended by more than three thousand troops from 13 countries, including the United States, Britain, Ukraine, Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Belgium, Montenegro and Georgia itself. As you can see, the list of participants includes NATO countries and two allies of the alliance - Ukraine and Georgia.
Secondly, the United States plans as frequent as possible calls of its warships in the ports of Ukraine and Georgia. So the Americans emphasize their presence in the Black Sea. After all, the own naval forces of Ukraine and, especially, Georgia, are practically not able to withstand the Russian Black Sea the fleet. Therefore, the American leadership is considering the possibility of creating permanent US naval bases in the region.
Thirdly, the United States is financing the modernization of the Ukrainian and Georgian armies, although this is not an easy task due to the very high level of corruption in these countries. But one should not underestimate American aid either - now, more than five years after the outbreak of armed conflict in the Donbass, the Ukrainian army is already far less weak than before. It was well armed, a significant part of the officers were “run-in” during the conflict, many military personnel trained under the guidance of American instructors.
The fourth and no less important area is the information and ideological war against Russia in the Black Sea region. The United States does not skimp on financing those projects that are aimed at undermining Russian political and cultural influence.
Money is being invested in supporting anti-Russian political forces in Ukraine and Georgia, in anti-Russian media, publishing books, and adjusting courses in schools and universities. The task is to form a stable anti-Russian vector in public opinion, to set up as many Ukrainians and Georgians as possible against Russia.
In 2020, elections to local authorities are to be held in Ukraine. And in the USA, a grant is already being prepared with an initial cost of almost a million dollars to “strengthen democratic processes and support elections that meet international standards,” that is, to ensure victory in the election of pro-Western forces negatively inclined towards Russia.
All these measures fit into the overall US strategy in the Black Sea region, the main purpose of which is to surround Russia from the south-west with a ring of hostile states towards it. To do this, isolate Moscow from Ukraine, Georgia and several other countries, as much as possible spoiling their relations with Russia.
The main obstacles to the implementation of American plans
However, the US anti-Russian strategy in the Black Sea region faces a number of obstacles. After all, each of the Black Sea countries has its own interests, often contrary to the interests of its closest neighbors, including those whom in Washington they would like to see in a single anti-Russian bloc.
For example, Romania and Ukraine have not very simple relations, which are aggravated by long-standing territorial claims (Romania considers Bessarabia and Bukovina to be its territory), and the position of Romanians as a national minority in Ukraine. Kiev has even more complicated relations with Warsaw and especially with Budapest: Hungary is the main critic of Ukrainian national politics in Europe because of the oppression of ethnic Magyars living in the Transcarpathian region.
In addition, the success of American politics in the Black Sea region depends on the position of the European Union and Turkey. Recently, the US position in Europe has noticeably shaken. France and Germany, which play a key role in the EU, no longer want to follow Washington unquestioningly. In the European Union, skepticism is growing about the American military presence in Europe, about the US actions in the Middle East, which led to a migratory attack on Europe. European countries are well aware of the negative consequences of anti-Russian sanctions on the economies of the EU countries.
As for Turkey, it also demonstrates a special relationship with Russia, constantly emphasizing their importance, and is currently distancing itself from American foreign policy. “Ritual” participation in military exercises in the Black Sea is one thing, and Turkey’s readiness for any real actions is quite another.
For Turkey, the Syrian direction is much more important now, since Ankara is trying to protect itself from the growth of the Kurdish national movement, which threatens the national interests and territorial integrity of Turkey itself. Belonging to the Crimea, the Black Sea ports, the situation in the Sea of Azov - all these issues are secondary to Turkey.
And the public opinion in Turkey is very cool towards the Americans. After all, civilizational peculiarities must be taken into account: the Turks are much more in solidarity with the Afghans, Iraqis or Libyans whom the American bombed aviationthan with Washington.
Therefore, it’s very important for the United States to show that Russia supposedly poses a real threat to the Black Sea countries and only a military coalition led by Washington is able to protect their interests in front of their powerful northeastern neighbor. It is for this purpose that American propaganda sets up the countries of Eastern Europe against Russia, having achieved the greatest success in Ukraine and Georgia, less in Romania and hardly achieved it in Turkey and Bulgaria.
- P P 'SЊSЏ RџRѕR "RѕRЅSЃRєRёR№
- inosmi.ru
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