Under Putin, there will be no natural population growth. So officials say
And it’s not like a war ...
The demographic situation in Russia will deteriorate in the coming years, after which (by about 2024 year) a certain turning point will occur. The Ministry of Economic Development of Russia made such a forecast, accompanying the budget submitted to the State Duma with an appropriate document. Over six years, the population of our country should increase by two million people. But there is one caveat ...
Most of this growth will be of a migratory nature! Actually, we will get a natural population growth at best by the 2024 year. True, this does not fit very well with the May President’s “super-order”, according to which demography is an absolute priority for the development of the state in the coming years, and the corresponding national project “Demography” receives huge funding - more than three trillion (3 000 000 000 000) rubles. But few people are interested in such trifles in the country, right?
Measures to reduce the mortality rate, especially of the working-age population, will help to reduce the age-specific mortality rates, which nevertheless will not be able to compensate for the birth rate trends and will lead to the preservation of the natural population decline until the 2023 of the year. In 2023, the natural decline will continue, and in 2024, natural population growth will be noted.
What are the experts of the Ministry of Economic Development hoping for? It’s hard to say for sure. The incomes of the population are falling, the level of loans is growing, the quality of life also does not inspire people to demographic exploits. Perhaps all hopes that the so-called zero generation will enter into adulthood, are somewhat more numerous in comparison with what was born during the monstrous demographic pit of the nineties. And in a sense, these hopes have the right to life - our women still give birth to one child, and we can count on the younger generation not to change this tradition.
I take out from wide trousers ...
By the way, even with the migration growth of the population, everything is not so simple, no matter how we relate to it. It's no secret that in recent years it has declined quite significantly. Now it no longer covers the natural decline. But, as you know, the government and the "bright minds" of pro-government and near-Kremlin experts did not waste time and came up with a number of innovations that should stimulate the delivery of new citizens to Russia.
First of all, it is planned to simplify the very procedure for obtaining citizenship. Including due to the mandatory refusal of the applicant for Russian citizenship from the citizenship of another state. Previously, as you know, such a rule existed, but now they plan to abolish it. All for the benefit of new citizens, as they say: why give up another citizenship, so that later, having become rich on drug smuggling (for example), try to get a second or third passport? Now everything will be simpler and more convenient: no matter how many passports you have, they will not be redundant. Ride around the world, travel, transport capsules of heroin in your stomach ... Oh, I'm sorry, I forgot that migrants are a priori kind, sincere and unable to do any harm to anyone.
Also, through various programs, it is planned to increase the number of foreign students in Russian universities. They are considered “promising” new citizens in our country, because for several years at our university they have more or less mastered the Russian language and are gaining a profession. And such a specialist is very necessary for our national economy, here and do not go to the grandmother. There is more to command "new citizens", most of whom have little understanding of Russian, and there is nobody ...
Where do we get the money to study hundreds of thousands of students, leave out of brackets. But it is clear that there is a lot of money in the country, and they are not at all sorry for attracting an Ethiopian doctor or a Somali teacher. Moreover, if we ourselves learn it ...
Frankly, I am shocked by the fact that it is the Ministry of Economic Development that deals with this issue. That is, is this the only department that for some reason still needs us? I understand that many simply will not understand me and will make round eyes: what, they say, of this? But I am very embarrassed that the population is interested in our government only as a labor force. Moreover, this is the leitmotif of any studies and discussions that can be found recently: the population is getting smaller, which means that the competitiveness of our products is falling (people will have to pay more, horror!), There will be no one to provide pensioners (well, income from hydrocarbons is not for pensioners, did not deserve), new production does not open, and so on.
We are not wine - with age we only get worse
But are we already completely uninteresting to the government in itself? Or the fact that our salaries are already lower in places than in China, does anyone care? Let’s bring some more millions of foreign workers, let the aborigines (you and I) not even think about raising wages?
It is not surprising, by the way, that another stone is thrown in the aforementioned document towards the national project “Demography” - it is explicitly stated that the age structure of the population is aging and “deteriorating”. And this despite the fact that the national project is largely “sharpened” precisely for improving the quality of life, increasing its duration, increasing the so-called age of survival. But for Mr. Oreshkin’s department, these are meaningless words - you work less, which means that you are already “worse”.
I especially want to note that this is "getting worse" - no, they absolutely do not want to see in us anything but draft power. The logic is simple - the horse has become older, which means it has become worse, because it is possible to plow less on it in one shift. That's all, the Ministry of Economic Development has no other ratings for us, be pleased with the fact that they are not yet sent to the slaughter ...
A quick analysis of the document shows that, in principle, our demographic strategy lacks even hints of any new approaches and solutions. The same emphasis is on increasing life expectancy instead of increasing birth rates, migration substitution, and not so much by Russians as by indigenous people of the Central Asian republics, reckoning on the assimilation of foreign students, for which you just need to maximize their number - maybe someone will remain.
And when you read all this, it becomes clear: our sovereign people are only interested in statistics, only statements that can be put on the GDP table and calmly continue to transfer papers in your office. Let the official sit still in his chair, and there, as they say, either the donkey will die, or the paddies will lose their spirits.
By the way, it is very likely that the optimism of officials regarding the natural population growth since the 2024 of the year is connected with the fact that this is the last year of Putin's presidency. He may already fail to verify these forecasts ...
No, just a coincidence! Really right?
- Viktor Kuzovkov
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