After the drones. Why is oil not at 100 $, but at 50?

Currently, according to ICE, the cost of the December futures per barrel of Brent crude oil, as at the beginning of this week, is still balancing near the 60 mark for the classic 160-liter barrel.




At the same time, the Russian Minister of Energy Alexander Novak at the last briefing even allowed himself an unexpected maxim:
“Everyone seems to have forgotten about 100 dollars per barrel.”


Meanwhile, the Russian Ministry of Finance hastened to calculate the consequences of lowering the price of “black gold” right up to 10 dollars per barrel — lower than it was in the fall of 1998 on the eve of default.

Washington steps


When from Riyadh they confidently reiterated that the drones that attacked oil facilities in Saudi Arabia were of Iranian origin, they mostly kept silent in Tehran. Western media did not even pay attention to how calm it was in those days in the Islamic Republic itself. Neither rallies, nor demonstrations, nor frankly provocative stories of television or newspaper articles.

In the good old Persia they knew how to endure and wait, in modern Iran they have not forgotten how. The necessary arguments to refute the Iranian trace, of course, have led, but that, by and large, limited.

Through the mouth of President Trump, the United States with might and main threatened Iran with an almost full-scale invasion, but for some reason they quickly changed their combat rhetoric to a more conciliatory one. Apparently, those who launched drones to the Saudi refineries did not really understand the possible consequences.

After the drones. Why is oil not at 100 $, but at 50?


Perhaps there was some expectation that in Riyadh the arrows would actually be transferred to Iran, and the region would burn. The escalating conflict is beneficial primarily to terrorists, and no one doubts that it was they who launched the drones. Another thing is which of them. It is unlikely that they will be able to find out quickly enough now, although there are experts who claim that everyone in Riyadh has long known. And perhaps they knew even before the September raid.

The scale of production and oil refining in Saudi Arabia after the attack was restored simply to envy promptly. We can assume that Iran was not even given the time to take advantage of the success. And although there is almost no doubt that Tehran had nothing to do with “success”, in such a situation, Allah himself ordered to search for new oil distribution channels.



But after all, they tried to seize the role of the main player in the beginning of the game in Washington. However, as it turns out, everything happened somehow at the wrong time. Washington has come to decide something with the Kurdish rebels, who in Turkey have long been considered a terrorist group, and now - and withdraw troops from Syria. It is possible, or rather, most likely, that this conclusion will be about the same as from Afghanistan - protracted, incomplete, and, obviously, not forever.

Although who knows, it is politicians in Washington who are not tired of wars, and the country may well make it clear that they are tired. And Donald Trump, one cannot but give him credit, knows how to feel his country. It’s not just that the USA suddenly started talking on the Iranian theme in a completely different tone.

Yes, in Washington, of course, they took into account the unprecedentedly unified and coordinated position of giving up pressure on Tehran. And this is done not only by Russia and China, but also by many of the US allies, who make it clear that they will find cheap and effective ways to circumvent US sanctions.

Impotence OPEC


Saudi sheikhs are able to negotiate. It would seem that Russia is so intractable that it regularly runs into some semblance of what was done to it in 1998, bringing oil dumping to default. But she went to a series of agreements with OPEC, where Eri-Riyadh is recognized leader. It is not possible to negotiate directly with Iran, but at meetings of the same OPEC, everything in the relations of the representatives of the two countries is quite dignified and even peaceful.



Some indirect agreements, by all indications, are taking place now, although this forces the same OPEC to remain silent about the new alignment in Syria caused by increased Turkish activity and about the same drone attack. There was, of course, a condemnation on duty; there were no decisions or proposals.

At the same time, it has already become noticeable to many that Saudi Arabia has recently begun to distance itself somewhat from OPEC, preferring not to shift to the Organization a number of decisions that require not only promptness, but also a certain anonymity. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that the sheikhs are quite capable of making some backstage agreements with the USA and a number of other countries, including those that are considered to be “oil outcasts,” up to Venezuela.

What and with whom will the sheikhs begin to agree? With whom, it’s clear: mainly with the Americans. About what? It is unlikely that a decrease in production volumes. Now, it seems, it's time to play just the opposite - to lower. To once again put large-scale dumping in the place of poorly controlled competitors. Including the same Iran, and, oddly enough, Russia. We should not expect any gratitude for all efforts within the OPEC plus and two pluses.



The oil market is cruel and pragmatic. He does not live today, but trends. In order to launch the trend, even a large injection of oil into the shelves may not be necessary. Apparently, on the sidelines of various kinds of oil parties such "crazy" ideas hardly surprise anyone; the whole question is how much they are capable of "mastering the masses." To become, according to Marx, omnipotent.

It seems that it was just the increase in crisis sentiment that forced the specialists of the Russian Ministry of Finance just in case to analyze the consequences of a drop in oil prices almost to 10 dollars per barrel. And even though such a scenario is almost certainly unrealistic. Too many factors work to ensure that “black gold” does not fall heavily in price, because it will be bad for everyone - even customers. However, I repeat, it is enough for oil traders only to demonstrate the same tendency in order to drive into the corner those who had previously played for an increase.

According to the Ministry of Finance experts, under such a scenario, Russia may lose more than a third of budget revenues and will be forced to consume reserve funds and even gold and foreign exchange reserves. However, the events under such a scenario cannot be delayed by definition, although the United States and the Saudi sheikhs have enough money for everything: even the Fed’s machine will not have to be launched - it’s enough to add tokens on the computer.



The market will quickly experience indigestion of excess oil, and it will begin to roll back upward. This is not a joke - it is a market axiom. In the end, there is simply and quickly where to put all the excess oil in reserves. However, even realizing this, the Russian Ministry of Finance nevertheless went further, deciding to check what would happen if oil prices were low for several years.

So, the volume of the airbag accumulated now is enough to be able to transfer the economy to other - new tracks during this time. To balance domestic demand is no longer with external, but domestic supply. Something like an “iron curtain” in the new edition.

However, in recent days, demand for oil in the world market began to fall again. Now sales and purchases range from 52-54 to 58-60 dollars per barrel, and this corridor is gradually slipping down. At the same time, the situation on the oil market itself remains completely unpredictable, as Russian Minister of Energy Alexander Novak drew attention to in one of his recent speeches.
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  1. Keyser soze 9 October 2019 15: 18 New
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    in order to be able to transfer the economy to other - new tracks during this time.


    Which ones exactly? Neo-feudal lords can only profit, but the conditions for business and the well-being of people are not their thing.
    1. Greg Miller 9 October 2019 15: 26 New
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      I agree. What is the difference to ordinary Russian citizens oil at 20 or 120 dollars per barrel, if the authorities in Russia keep the economy on a starvation ration, withdrawing all funds abroad?
      1. AU Ivanov. 9 October 2019 15: 39 New
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        What authorities withdraw funds abroad? Business withdraws money and he has the right to it - this is his money, wherever I want, I invest there. And if you pay attention to what taxes the oil and gas sector pays to the budget, then far from all the same how much oil costs on world markets.
        1. Svarog 9 October 2019 15: 48 New
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          Quote: AU Ivanov.
          Business withdraws money and he has the right to it - this is his money, wherever I want, I invest there

          He has the right to this if the business is not done on the natural wealth of the country .. but it is precisely those who earn on the "people's wealth" and withdraw money over the hill .. And we do not have another business as such .. .
          1. AU Ivanov. 9 October 2019 15: 55 New
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            The business paid for all the necessary production licenses and paid taxes. He can do whatever he pleases with his legitimate profit.
            1. Svarog 9 October 2019 15: 57 New
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              Quote: AU Ivanov.
              The business paid for all the necessary production licenses and paid taxes. He can do whatever he pleases with his legitimate profit.

              This business just avoids taxes through offshore ..
              1. EvilLion 10 October 2019 08: 15 New
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                Actually, Putin first of all covered this shop, it was at the beginning of the 2000s, and somehow money immediately appeared for paying debts, for which Putin was already hated in the West, and for “superjets”, and tanks with airplanes, and to the growth of incomes of the population, which no longer knows where to put cars in the courtyards, and turned country houses from booths to drink seagulls in between in the digging into individual recreation areas covered with 2-meter fences
                .
                You can’t notice this only if you lie in the freezer all these years.
            2. Beringovsky 9 October 2019 17: 54 New
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              All necessary, this is a loose concept, Comrade Ivanov. In some countries, this is 70% or more taxes. In addition, in some countries, business workers are not in a position of disempowered semi-slaves, because There are independent and efficient trade unions and numerous public organizations. Which in Russia are successfully strangled by the joint efforts of business and government.
              That's when we will have it, when the people will have real power, then business will be able to do whatever it pleases with its profit. But under the law, of course.
              1. AU Ivanov. 9 October 2019 18: 00 New
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                The oil industry is taxed above the roof. Yes, in some countries there are unions, independent unions. It is only we who cannot self-organize. It is not easy to create a trade union, but I can say from my past activities in the HOA that everyone is a damn thing, even that which directly concerns a personal wallet. And here is the struggle. A truly independent trade union has never been created at the direction of the top, only the bottom.
                1. nikolai.kolya 10 October 2019 07: 22 New
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                  Why is it that '' yours doesn’t understand '', it’s clear that they steal from state funds (taxes)
          2. Chaldon48 10 October 2019 22: 38 New
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            Our business is rooted in the nineties, dark and wild. Now he is trying to trace white and fluffy.
        2. Greg Miller 9 October 2019 15: 54 New
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          At the beginning of 1999, oil cost $ 9-12 per barrel, and the Russian economy grew at a rate of 27% per year. It was not the price of oil, but the fact that E.M. was then prime minister. Primakov, the government all consisted of communists and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation was controlled by Viktor Gerashchenko ...
          1. Vadim237 9 October 2019 17: 03 New
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            "At the beginning of 1999, oil was worth $ 9-12 per barrel, and Russia's economy grew at a rate of 27% per year." Only indicators of the economy then and now are absolutely incomparable: in terms of the number of goods of all, in terms of inflation and money. Yes, and oil and gas revenues in the 90s mainly went past the treasury.
          2. Alexzn 9 October 2019 20: 35 New
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            [/ quote] [quote = Greg Miller] At the beginning of 1999, oil cost $ 9-12 per barrel, and the Russian economy grew by 27% per year. It was not the price of oil, but the fact that E.M. was then prime minister. Primakov, the government all consisted of communists and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation was controlled by Viktor Gerashchenko ...

            CHATTERBOX!
            In 1999, in the first half of the year, GDP fell by 0,7%, but in the second half there was growth slightly more than 2%. The casket opened simply - oil went up almost 2 times over the year from 9 to 18-20 dollars.
            Tell tales about Primakov, the Communists and Gerashenko ...
          3. EvilLion 10 October 2019 08: 18 New
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            In the 1999th economy jumped from the bottom to which flew away in the 1998th. And then the growth was not 27%, but EMNIP only 10%. 27% - This is only in the era of early industrialization, it is possible when for every 4 plant, it was possible to build the 5 and this made sense.
      2. Svarog 9 October 2019 15: 46 New
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        Quote: Greg Miller
        What is the difference to ordinary Russian citizens oil at $ 20 or $ 120 per barrel,

        In this case, the citizens will feel the difference .. The dollar will double again and then prices for everything will rise .. that is, not the rich will turn into beggars, and the poor will begin to die en masse, and if they don’t want to die, then riots will begin ..
      3. EvilLion 10 October 2019 08: 09 New
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        That is, your new car abroad? Like the school stadiums in my city that got the real green lawn of a football field, the net around and a whole bunch of sports. inventory nearby. I, apparently, was stupidly thinking that such things are done only when there is an excess of money in the country. But it turns out, it seemed to me, that the hologram is visible, not a stadium.
  2. Yrec 9 October 2019 15: 28 New
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    I think that Israel attacked drones at KSA refineries, this is in their style. Even the Hussites used the blind in the wings. However, the main players quickly realized whose hands it was and let it go on the brakes. At first they started to drive Iran, but no one believed. And the Iranians themselves through the diplomatic channels, most likely, pointed to the main binifer of this venture and promised to make it public if they did not stop blaming them. Something like this.
  3. Amateur 9 October 2019 15: 39 New
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    just in case, analyze the consequences of a fall in the price of oil to almost $ 10 per barrel

    I wonder if the author ever heard the word "cost"?
    1. max702 14 October 2019 10: 58 New
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      Quote: Amateur
      I wonder if the author ever heard the word "cost"?

      The head of Rosneft somehow let slip that in Russia the average cost of a barrel is $ 2.3.
      1. Amateur 14 October 2019 13: 03 New
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        The head of Rosneft somehow let slip that in Russia the average cost of a barrel is $ 2.3.

        In the Saudis in the mid-70s, oil flowed by gravity at 10-12 $ / barrel.
        The head of Rosneft was strongly "in the oil supply"
        1. max702 14 October 2019 13: 08 New
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          It was published in a specialized publication of power engineers .. They also boasted there at some highly specialized forum the size of the hole from which oil is supplied to a new large field, such as in knowledgeable circles is very indicative and important infa.
  4. Stirbjorn 9 October 2019 15: 46 New
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    Shale oil will not allow to rise to $ 100, you can not dream of. No matter how many factories the Saudis blow up, the Yankees will fill in the missing volumes with pleasure
    1. AU Ivanov. 9 October 2019 15: 59 New
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      Shale oil will not give the price and much sag.
    2. Vadim237 9 October 2019 17: 07 New
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      If the Hussites strike again - when the winter is in the USA and Europe, then the price of oil may well exceed one hundred square meters. Moreover, the United States is already selling its oil reserves.
    3. max702 14 October 2019 11: 03 New
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      Quote: Stirbjorn
      Shale oil will not allow to rise to $ 100, you can not dream of.

      By the way, this is why OPEC and Russia keep oil at 50-60 dollars, they absolutely do not need a flourishing shale at a price of 100 dollars per barrel, and 50-60 is the very border that does not give profitability for new shale projects and at the same time satisfied with the state-va exporters ..
  5. parusnik 9 October 2019 16: 03 New
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    When they write about the collapse of the USSR, usually the main argument is a drop in oil prices ... But what will happen to Russia if prices fall below the lower limit? ...
    1. Kronos 9 October 2019 17: 20 New
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      Collapse won't just sink to the bottom of poverty
    2. AML
      AML 10 October 2019 01: 51 New
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      Quote: parusnik
      When they write about the collapse of the USSR, usually the main argument is a drop in oil prices ....

      And in the late 60s and early 70s it cost $ 1-2 per barrel, and something the USSR did not really notice. Do not talk nonsense.
  6. Vadim237 9 October 2019 16: 54 New
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    Exports will drop by $ 30 billion at a price of $ 10 per barrel - no problem, these losses will be replaced by increased exports: grain, arms exports, and metallurgy. Gold and foreign exchange reserves and the National Welfare Fund - in which no one will eat up more than eight trillion rubles now - as Plan B, they will simply reduce all budget expenditures by 10 - 15% for each of the items.
    1. Beringovsky 9 October 2019 18: 19 New
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      Vadim237
      Exports will drop by $ 30 billion at a price of $ 10 per barrel - no problem,

      Vadim, you have fun with your pearls, worse than Petrosyan lol
      Actually, "$ 10 a barrel" and "up to $ 10 a barrel" are not the same thing wassat
      will replace these losses with increased exports

      Why haven’t you been replaced in 2014? Oil fell by half and the ruble followed by it at the same rate crying
      Gold and foreign exchange reserves and the national welfare fund - in which now no one will eat more than eight trillion rubles

      Vadim, rubles are generally inedible by themselves. But there will be no dollars.
      What do you buy for rubles abroad? Nothing. So what's the use of them?
      1. Vadim237 9 October 2019 18: 27 New
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        What didn’t replace in 2014 - there aren’t any such volumes now.
        1. Beringovsky 9 October 2019 18: 54 New
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          Volumes of what, sorry?
          TV propaganda?
          1. Vadim237 9 October 2019 20: 44 New
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            "TV propaganda?" - On TV, they don’t really talk about harvests and volumes of metallurgical products, and everything is the same, but there are a lot of weapons.
      2. Glory1974 9 October 2019 20: 52 New
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        Why haven’t you been replaced in 2014? Oil fell by half and the ruble followed by it at the same rate

        So it was a substitution.
        it was 100 dollars per barrel, this is 3000 rubles.
        Oil began to cost 50 dollars per barrel, the ruble was lowered to 60 rubles. per dollar, the output is the same 3000 rubles.
        1. Beringovsky 9 October 2019 21: 59 New
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          Yes of course. Previously, they ate pancakes with caviar, now cabbage with horseradish. But the output is the same.
  7. d.olegov44 9 October 2019 17: 37 New
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    After the drones. Why is oil not at 100 $, but at 50?


    You just have to wait for the US shale bubble to burst, as local experts predicted:
    https://topwar.ru/155042-slancevyj-puzyr-v-ssha-na-grani-grandioznogo-buma.html

    Perhaps, the esteemed Viktor Kuzovkov will appear here and explain to Koga this will happen.

    1. Arturov 9 October 2019 19: 23 New
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      * A shale bubble * has already built two pipelines in the USA and is about to invade exports with a saber. But propagandists stubbornly do not notice it ... laughing
  8. Karabin 9 October 2019 20: 33 New
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    So, the volume of the airbag accumulated now is enough to be able to transfer the economy to other - new tracks during this time.

    And who will translate it? Those who only know how to "dug-sold-shared"?
  9. Glory1974 9 October 2019 20: 53 New
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    To balance domestic demand is no longer with external, but domestic supply. Something like an “iron curtain” in the new edition.

    Something like this was proposed by Glazyev. He was recently fired. Conclusion: Glazyev’s plans failed.
  10. eagle owl 9 October 2019 21: 36 New
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    The escalating conflict is beneficial primarily to terrorists, and no one doubts that it was they who launched the drones.

    In international circles, uniform hysteria began. The League of Arab States resolutely condemned the incident as almost a terrorist act. Completely ignoring the fact that Saudi Arabia and the Hussites are in a state of official war. Which makes their logic somewhat incomprehensible, according to which it is possible for the Saudi armed forces to strike at targets in Yemen, but the Hussite formations do not answer the same.

    wink
  11. Lexus 10 October 2019 00: 03 New
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    More expensive, cheaper - what's the difference? All the same, everything rises in price and will rise in price. Till...
  12. AML
    AML 10 October 2019 01: 59 New
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    Quote: lexus
    More expensive, cheaper - what's the difference? All the same, everything rises in price and will rise in price. Till...


    Is it getting cheaper somewhere? 5 years ago gasoline cost 1.10 euro, now 1.25 euro. Was it cheaper over this period? Let me think .. No, not cheaper.
    1. Spring fluff 12 October 2019 23: 38 New
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      In the USA, it's getting cheaper. Oil was falling and gas was falling too. Specially recognized from a friend there. She just threw links to sites from gas stations, I looked
      1. AML
        AML 14 October 2019 13: 19 New
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        In the United States, you can judge the value only by holding a check on your hands, and not seeing it on a website, magazine, signboard. Plus oil products are subsidized. I won’t be surprised if in the USA they will give away gasoline for free, they will draw 50billion for themselves and then it’s business. Therefore, your example from the USA is not indicative of the word at all.

        In the EU, if I see the cost on the signboard 1.2 per liter, then the check will be exactly 1.2 per liter and no additional charges.
  13. dgonni 10 October 2019 11: 15 New
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    That would not much rassusolit! If such an attack occurred 10 years ago, the price of oil would have jumped instantly by 30-50 percent and would have a tendency to further increase!
    But the shale bubble of the states, as Miller used to say, was not a bubble, but a gold mine. Therefore, the market practically did not react with a price increase. Since there is oil, and at the same time a lot! So the fall in prices will continue! By the middle of next year, the states will complete pipelines to the east coast and then oil and gas will collapse at a price of 50 percent.
    Monopolies are over, an open market begins with its evil grin.
  14. Rostislav 12 October 2019 11: 29 New
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    Russia, which regularly runs into some semblance of what was done to it in 1998, bringing oil dumping to default

    Still not tired of exaggerating this stupidity?
  15. DimerVladimer 15 October 2019 13: 40 New
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    in order to be able to transfer the economy to other - new tracks during this time


    Who will transfer the economy to “new tracks” and what prevented this from being done 10-15 years ago or after 2014?
    The current government only had the mind to depreciate the ruble by 100% - to drop Russia from 7th to 11th place.
    Instead of accelerating the circulation of money in the economy, on the contrary, they squeezed the money supply, which led to a drop in tax revenues.
    Instead of providing the economy with cheap working capital, the Russian banking system, in which state-owned banks set the rules for the game, was promoted in every way - and these are their loan rates of 12-15% per annum, when in China it is 6%, in Europe 2-3% - which competitive economy?
    Unlike China, we also need to heat the workshops in the winter season ...
  16. Blacksmith 20 October 2019 16: 14 New
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    East is a delicate matter. Even experienced geopoliticians were forced to go to a meeting with the Saudis to understand why everything went wrong as intended. The scale of production and oil refining in Saudi Arabia after the attack was restored for some reason very quickly. We can assume that Iran, which was already deprived of the opportunity to sell oil products on the market due to international sanctions, is now in a difficult situation on the verge of possible military action, and geopolitics on the other side of the globe who have an economy tied to the sale of hydrocarbons, even did not give time to take advantage of the success.