Ukrainian Vіyskova analysis creates and destroys enemies
Habitual questions
For several years now I have been hearing from the readers the same question in different ways. “What do they smoke there?” What kind of idiot must be in order to make such a decision? ”This is about the decisions of the military and political leadership of Ukraine. It began with the appearance of the first boilers in the Donbass, where they grind the APU and punitive in hundreds, and still does not end there.
The questions became so familiar that they were simply tired of answering. It would be clear if there were no Soviet military schools and academies behind the senior officers and generals of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Navy. Then blame obvious mistakes and blunders of decisions could be due to lack of education. But at the beginning of his military career, these were Soviet officers. So what is going on? And why in the near future I will have to hear such questions and comments even more often?
Today, fairly young people have come to power in Ukraine, who simply, due to their age, cannot have Soviet specialized education. From this we can conclude that they will make decisions on military issues based on the opinions of military experts and analysts. One of the examples of modern military analytics in Ukraine today we will try to understand. Moreover, the text of this note is, according to some reports, on the tables of deputies of the Verkhovna Rada.
It will be about missile defense of Ukraine and its ability to withstand the attack of Russian short and medium-range missiles. The document is serious, so please take it seriously.
In August 2019, the INF Treaty expired, which naturally raises a reasonable question for the Ukrainian leadership: is Russia capable of breaking through Ukraine’s air defense and missile defense in case of an attack? Does Ukraine have the necessary potential for its own protection?
Why Russia is ready to attack Ukraine and what it has
Traditionally for Ukraine, the analysis begins with a veiled story about the meanness and cruelty of the Russian military:
“Russia did not particularly limit itself in the use of missile weapons, which was on the verge of being permitted. So, for example, the facts of the use of missiles by Russia in the civil war in Syria to destroy the combat units of the "Free Syrian Army" were repeatedly recorded, which many times killed a large number of civilians.
It is clear that “going to Europe” taught Ukrainians to believe only in Western propaganda. And consider the Western, and preferably American, point of view the only true one. Even in the absence of any evidence. It is useless to argue about this. And do not re-educate adults. Leopard change his spots.
Read on. What does Russia have at the moment for an attack on Ukraine? First of all, it is the Iskander operational-tactical missile system 9K720, which is capable of hitting targets at a distance from 50 to 2000 kilometers.
“According to open sources, as of 2019, the Russian Federation is armed with about 120 OTR Iskander.
No less formidable weapons are the air-launched missiles X-55 (developed by the USSR) and X-101 (developed by the Russian Federation), which are armed with the Tu-160 and Tu-95MS strategic bombers. A large number of missiles is compensated by a small number of carriers (aircraft).
By the way, Ukraine played a big role in arming the Russian army with X-55 missiles! It is thanks to the peace-loving policy of Ukraine that Russia received 575 X-55 missiles in payment of gas supplies in the 1999 year.
I think readers understood that it was Ukraine that in many ways “spawned” the current power of the Russian army. Handed over nuclear weaponrockets handed over. Suddenly? Maybe. But how warm the soul to Ukrainian nationalists, who already understand that it is impossible to return the industrial, and, therefore, military power to Ukraine. Another tale about the excavated Black Sea.
The enemy will not pass! Sleep well, Ukrainians
It is clear that “a full list of missile weapons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot be provided for reasons of secrecy. Ukraine’s missile defense and air defense are on combat duty today and are defending objects, "a list of which we also cannot provide for the same reasons.
Do not smile. It is precisely such motivation for the refusals of the deputies of the Rada and senior officials for our southern neighbor - the norm. If there is nothing to show, then the best thing is to classify information. We have it, but only those who are supposed to know about it. But back to the analytics.
So, most of the APU missile and anti-aircraft weapons are the S-300PT, S-300PS, S-300В1 and Buk-M1 systems. In the process of repair are no less powerful complexes "Cube" and "Tor". Ukrainian scientists today are solving the problem of increasing the speed and range of missiles for these complexes. (By the way, annually it is reported that these missiles are about to be tested or even armed.)
An analytical note mentions one fact that can explain the use of the Buk to destroy a civilian aircraft.
“According to the Russian concern Almaz-Antey, Ukraine has a sufficiently large stock of missiles for this complex. This is 991 rocket 9М38М1 and 502 rockets 9М38 »
(According to Ukrainian sources.)
The APU pays special attention to the deep modernization of the S-125 Pechora air defense system. Ukrainian gunsmiths have already been able to equate this complex to medium-range air defense systems (!), Increasing the firing range from 18 to 40 kilometers!
In addition to the weapons listed above, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are actively arming themselves with other systems: OSA-AKM, Strela-10, self-propelled ZSU-23-4 Shilka and 2K22 Tunguska. All these systems are being restored and used by the Ukrainian army quite actively.
As can be seen from what is listed in the note, Ukraine has forgotten how to produce something serious. All the power of missile defense and anti-aircraft defense of the Armed Forces is nothing more than the traditional devouring of the Soviet heritage for this country. But for an ignorant person, all these beautiful names sound menacing.
Why Russian planes are not afraid of Ukrainian air defense
Russians experienced the power of Ukrainian air defense during the conflict in 2008. When the Georgian army, with little or no experience in using the Bukov handed over by Ukraine (according to Russian sources, along with trained crews), according to various sources, destroyed from 4 to 8 Russian aircraft.
Unlike inexperienced Georgians, Ukrainian soldiers and officers have experience in the combat use of systems. The Armed Forces of Ukraine constantly participate in exercises, conduct training and practice shooting. Crew training is conducted taking into account the combat experience of countering Russia in Georgia and Syria.
Output. The Armed Forces of Ukraine possess sufficient means to repulse the attack of Russia at least in the capital, large cities and infrastructure. And considering that the Russian armed forces for attack are limited by the need to defend their own facilities in other regions, an attack on Ukraine is not planned in the near future.
Why do you need to scare to calm
Reading these opuses of “experts” and “analysts”, one involuntarily asks the question: why? Why do you need to first create the image of an aggressive neighbor, ready at any moment to start a war, and then "powerfully defeat him."
In the Ukrainian media today this word is very often used: "powerful." Everything connected with anti-Russian actions not only in one’s own country, but also in other countries, is necessarily “powerful”. “The United States imposed powerful sanctions against Russia”, “Ukraine powerfully responded to ...”, “Schoolchildren powerfully held a drawing contest against the war in the Donbass ...”
The popularity of the Ukrainian army today, to put it mildly, is not very. In Kiev alone, military commissariats sent more than 30 000 requests to the police to search for draft draftees. In these conditions, it is necessary to create in society an illusion of one’s own security and the ability to destroy any enemy in a short time.
This is clear to everyone. It is not clear another. Why supply such “analytical” notes to those on whom the fate of the state directly depends? Why lie to deputies, officials, their own military? The agony of the state? Maybe. But another explanation is closer to me. Ukrainians need to be accustomed to the idea that war with Russia is inevitable.
The task is actually not as difficult as it seems. In recent years, the whole planet has been taught to calmly accept talk about the use of nuclear weapons, about the third world war, about the right of a strong state to dictate its own conditions and requirements to weaker ones. Let's look at the development of events ...
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