Military Review

Is the Chinese “spring” coming?

15
In Russia, the concept of "plant", despite the recent attempt to resuscitate the defense industry, has moved into the industrial Soviet past and seems to many citizens to be archaic, taken from somewhere in the ancient era of "proletarians." But in China - the opposite is true. The basis of the Chinese economy is not at all “post-industrial,” that is, not at all what Alvin Toffler called the “third wave.” (And there can be no non-industrial economy: all this is fiction of armchair scientists, alas, far from life).

In the Celestial Empire, it comes to the fact that the construction of another industrial enterprise can cause mass protests - no, not akin to those that are headed by Messrs. Navalny, Yashin or here Ksenia Sobchak in Russia. And the scale of the protests in China is different.

Is the Chinese “spring” coming?


In Sichuan Province of China recently passed protestwhich was about 430 thousands of people. This huge crowd objected to the construction of a metallurgical plant in Shifan. Environmentally harmful plant, of course.

Protesting citizens threw bricks and water bottles into the windows of government offices, smashed cars and fought law enforcement officers. Citizens did not want to build a plant, but the authorities did not go to meet the citizens. As a result, several law enforcement officials protesting injured, and among the demonstrators in the hospital turned out to be 13 people. Reportedly also about the death of one student.

The Chinese Navalny, who are calling on the Internet for the “jasmine revolution”, are severely persecuted by the authorities. Bloggers, journalists, human rights activists are punished. At the beginning of 2012, 6 people were arrested by the police and 16 sites were closed, through which information about the actions of the Chinese security forces was spread. "Anyone who instigated the riots, planned or organized them, who participated in the looting and plunder, will be severely punished, - stated in the Chinese law enforcement agencies about the latest protest because of the plant. “Everyone who used the Internet, mobile phones and other methods to incite or organize rallies, protest marches and demonstrations, must immediately cease their illegal activities.”

True, the protesters continued to demonstrate after such statements.

In China, they seriously fear that the opposition "spring", which continues in the Arab world, will also affect the Middle Kingdom: of course, in view of the Chinese realities. However, they revolt in China for a long time, and the “scenario” of government actions does not change. The protest action related to the construction of the next plant is not a reason for statements about the “jasmine revolution”. In the same way, the next “swamp” performance in Moscow is not a reason for loud statements that a truly democratic “civil society” was born in Russia, in which everyone is equal to everyone (“but some are more equal than others,” Orwell would add) . No, it was not born, and not necessary. It was born and decay safely in London, where the Vice Premier hoisted the flag of homosexuals over the Cabinet Secretariat the other day, and in the USA, where the Gay and Lesbian Pride Day was recently celebrated at the Pentagon, but we don’t need that happiness. But it is, by the way.

In China, the number of local riots of discontent - whether the reason for the construction of a harmful plant or corruption of officials - has passed for 20.000 per year. The number is impressive. Russia is far from such indicators. And they say that freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, and other democratic freedoms are completely strangled in China. Analysts, considering this enormous number, speak of a possible transition of quantity into quality, in accordance with a known law.

Another reason for the discontent of ordinary Chinese - gulf of social stratification: seven dozen billionaires and half a million millionaires against 160 millions of Chinese who survive beyond poverty, and 700 millions balancing on this line. Four fifths of the PRC population are peasants living in poor provinces; 120 of millions of them moved to the rich east, where most of them live and work in about the same conditions as guest workers in the Russian Federation.

More than half a year on the Chinese Internet, including in the blogs of the influential party publication Renmin Ribao campaign is in progress on exposing the "bloody crimes" of Mao Zedong and the hypocrisy of the Chinese elites. The latter, according to the whistleblowers, "moved their families and funds to the United States, while they themselves extol the socialist system." The notions of the “Chinese famine” (from the period of the “big leap”) and the “land of barefoot” (the so-called China) are included in the new Chinese political language. New words and expressions are accompanied by arguments about the advantages of Western democracy. Not without a strong dose of dirt. According to many experts, the virtual lawlessness was the result of the confrontation of clans headed by Chairman Hu Jintao and former party leader Jiang Zemin. The arrest of Bo Xilai, rumors of a military coup and the fact that the main corrupt officials in China are the military elite and the Xi Jinping family are all episodes of a single democratic process, very reminiscent of the sad era of Soviet perestroika, which ended in "liberal reforms": freezing contributions to Sberbank, vouchers, private investment funds and Chubais privatization in the interests of the oligarchy. The outcome of the reforms were rabid inflation, a decrease in the population from poverty, alcoholism and a reduction in the birth rate, the collapse of industry, science and the education system.

With the fall in the growth rate of the Chinese economy and the statements of various experts about the powerful new phase of the global crisis, there will certainly be a basis for connecting dissatisfied “lowers” ​​and updated “tops”. That is, this is not about a revolution similar to the “Arab Spring”, but about a possible change of elites in China — which analysts and ideologues like Professor Zhang Jian (from about thirty years old) who have learned in the intellectual centers of the West will give assent: Chicago, and then at Oxford. Zhang, for example, learned at Columbia University USA. After graduation, he began teaching at Peking University - by the way, at the Faculty of Management. The most suitable place to prepare a shift of governing elites.

Zhang is a classical liberal who supports the free market and, of course, political reforms. What kind of liberal without reform? .. Professor right declares: "I would like the overall system of China to become more like the UK or the United States." Zhang was educated on the books of such liberalists as Karl Popper (author of the book “Open Society and His Enemies”) and Milton Friedman, monetarist, Nobel Prize winner in economics, famous for the fact that Chubais, Gaidar used his theories and other reformers in post-perestroika Russia.

However, in addition to the liberals, that is, the “rightists”, there are also “leftists” in the People's Republic of China — and those who received education in the democratic West as well. The main difference between these leftists and the rightists described above is the thesis of a strong socialist state (despite the fact that they do not completely reject the market).

For example, Cui Zhiyuan, a graduate of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and now a professor at Tsinghua University, claimsthat China should just free itself from the neoliberal economy.

Another example of the new “Left” in China is Professor Wang Wei. At one time he worked in a factory, and then he was able to go to study at Harvard (a good example of Chinese totalitarianism, isn’t it?)

It is interesting that, seeing with his own eyes how the economic principles of the West work, he, like many other educated Chinese, was disappointed.

At the same time, as noted by Sinologist Andrei Vinogradov, the attitude towards America in China in recent times has been more than cool. A. Vinogradov пишетthat he was personally convinced of this “in conversations with the Chinese, representing completely different strata of society (ranging from scientists to taxi drivers and businessmen). It is not without reason that in China there is a saying that the Chinese are the only ones who defeated the USA in the twentieth century in three wars. ”

The United States, according to A. Vinogradov, is viewed by China as the main geopolitical adversary. It is impossible not to add to this that the United States regards the PRC as the first strategic enemy on the planet. That is why the military resources will reorient America to the APR. Mitt Romney, who keeps saying everything about Russia as a geopolitical enemy №1, is simply not in the know.

The economic neoliberalism of M. Friedman in China simply does not take root. For the past thirty years, Beijing has been going uphill, despite the current slight slowdown. And America, unpopular in China, like the European Union, is becoming increasingly bogged down in the depths of the crisis.

Therefore, in China today we can expect changes, but rather gradual and socially oriented, rather than “shock”, clumsily worked out according to monetarist scenarios. In 2010, the Chinese peasants pensions appeared - and after all they were not there before. Salaries are rising - by 12-15% per year. In China, a worker can get an apartment or an interest-free loan for it, as well as to buy a car. With a liberal-type market model, such facts immediately go into the realm of fantasy. Peasants therefore go east in China, that they can still feed there. Liberals are able to feed only promises.

The total volume of foreign trade of China - 2972,7 billion. (The results of 2010, data A. Vinogradov). The volume of foreign trade of China with the United States - 385,5 billion. Dollars. The volume of trade between China and the EU countries - 479,7 billion. Europe and the USA are the first to depend heavily on China.

Calling on China to make the economy neoliberal, i.e., to ruin it, the West risks a lot: if China’s dependence on Western open economies is great, then the West (especially the crisis one) can’t survive today’s competitive Chinese products. In America alone in retail chains of all goods sold 85% made abroad. 1/5 All goods that can be bought in the USA are made in China.

There are, of course, in the West and sensible people. "After 30 years, - пишет Evan Osnos ("The New Yorker") - China is nearing the end of a period of super-fast growth, but this should not come as a shock. In many ways, this is similar to the rapid growth of other Asian economies, such as South Korea, and this growth sooner or later gives way to a slowdown. However, they are able to quickly recover from a recession. ”

No, liberalism will not pass in China.

Observed Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
15 comments
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  1. Pers
    Pers 12 July 2012 08: 15
    +7
    Given the steady growth of the Middle Kingdom and the crisis of the mind, morality and economy in America, I think that if there is no revolution in China, the US economy and green candy wrapper will come to an end. I would like to see it
    1. tronin.maxim
      tronin.maxim 12 July 2012 08: 38
      0
      I am sure we will live to see this! And there you see a golden ruble as in the good old days. Although it was 2 times in the history of the country!
    2. Morgan stanley
      Morgan stanley 12 July 2012 19: 28
      +1
      The green candy wrapper will come to an end when it finally gets tired of the top ten leaders in terms of GDP. Another crisis and the dollar will be removed from the international arena of the economy.
      1. 755962
        755962 12 July 2012 21: 42
        +1
        No, liberalism will not pass in China.


        
My definition of liberalism is a subversive technology of organizing the betrayal of the "elite" in favor of the world's evil, using liberal rhetoric as the simplest and most accessible. The main weapon in this technology, its engine is the media, although news stories are created by intelligence and are always standard "active measures" ... Liberalism does not work without the media. The media is a launch vehicle, liberalism is a warhead that senselessly lies in place without a missile.

 


  2. Норд
    Норд 12 July 2012 08: 53
    +4
    Until the political "spring" comes in China, "summer and autumn" will fly by in the stars and stripes and "winter" will come, and without outside interference.
  3. Yoshkin Kot
    Yoshkin Kot 12 July 2012 10: 13
    +4
    um, China and India before the industrial revolution together had more than 50% of world GDP, everything is back to square one. Moreover, they should not be afraid of China, they have their own problems and it is not about the notorious liberalization, full of interethnic problems, plus an unbalanced export-oriented economy, plus a rise in the cost of labor, the main driving force of their economy. In general, China has a lot of trouble in the next couple of decades, which, however, does not make China a weak "partner".
    1. Ross
      Ross 12 July 2012 15: 31
      0
      Yoshkin Cat,

      China and India before the industrial revolution had, together, more than 50% of world GDP


      Accurate remark! Judging by the fact that by 1920 about 70% of the world's gold reserves were in Asia, it seems that the figure of the so-called GDP is close to 70%.
  4. 8 company
    8 company 12 July 2012 12: 44
    +4
    There is a suspicion that the author does not understand the meaning of the market economy. It turns out that in the West the economy is organized on some principles, and in China on others. In fact, both in China and in the West, the economy is the same - a liberal market, based on private investment and free enterprise. But there really is no political liberalism in Chinese society. I think this is correct - let's remember Russia in the 90s: they introduced liberalism in society and immediately the country was flooded with bandits. In countries where tough totalitarian regimes have been operating for a long time, one cannot declare "freedom" with a wave of a flag; here you need accuracy and gradualism.
  5. sapulid
    sapulid 12 July 2012 13: 36
    +7
    Thanks to the author! I haven't laughed like that for a long time! :) All in a heap. Maybe we should first analyze China's growth? COMPLETE DECOMPOSITION, DURING THE "BIG JUMP"! Then, an export-oriented economy. Moreover, export, with low added value. At a meager cost, a slave. strength. The reorientation of the economy towards domestic consumption is practically impossible due to the low standard of living. Raising this level will make it impossible to export cheap goods, the main component of Chinese exports. Further modernization is questionable, due to the global crisis and the rapid aging of the population. Moreover, with an impressive dominant number of men due to the one-child policy. Add to this the lack of pensions in the countryside and scanty social services in the city with the destroyed ecology and merciless exploitation of the slave. strength. China is DOED, either, while remaining a country with a low standard of living, to drive cheap goods for export, or to drown in its own crisis due to the stoppage of unprofitable production. In the second case, the consequences will be catastrophic, and for the whole world. The revolt and the subsequent collapse of China in the presence of a civil war, with endless crowds of refugees who will flood Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia due to the impossibility of penetrating the West, with the subsequent, sharp impoverishment of these countries due to spending on the maintenance of millions of refugees ... the question will remain in whose jurisdiction will the nuclear weapons of China. Hence the possibility of its application ...

    How do you like the picture of the future of China? However, even with the development of the first scenario, there remains a high probability of the collapse of China with the same consequences, due to the sharp social stratification.
    1. 8 company
      8 company 12 July 2012 14: 34
      +3
      Quote: sapulid
      The reorientation of the economy to domestic consumption is almost impossible, due to the low standard of living.


      You are mistaken: the Chinese took the first place in the world on gross purchases of cars a year ago. The average income of the Chinese is growing dynamically and significantly, and domestic consumption there has reached levels that can offset the decline in exports due to the crisis in the EU and the USA. So your pessimism regarding the PRC is based on incorrect sources of information or on their incorrect interpretation winked
  6. neri73-r
    neri73-r 12 July 2012 15: 15
    +1
    8 company
    In terms of gross purchases of cars, the Chinese came to first place in the world a year ago


    Yes, but they are far from the first in terms of gross population !!! And if 120 million Chinese people buy cars, this does not mean that the rest (and not commensurably large) of the Chinese live well!
    1. 8 company
      8 company 12 July 2012 15: 37
      +1
      Quote: neri73-r
      And if 120 million Chinese people buy cars, this does not mean that the rest (and not commensurably large) of the Chinese live well!


      That's right, it doesn’t mean, but only 20 years ago only a few Chinese could afford to have a car, and today there are tens of millions of them. Is there any dynamics?
      1. smile
        smile 12 July 2012 18: 14
        0
        8 company
        Right. The first private car in China appeared, in my opinion, in 1986 .... the dynamics are simply monstrous .....
  7. Alexander 1958
    Alexander 1958 12 July 2012 23: 51
    +1
    . Good evening! Yes, the dynamics can be envied! But each coin has a flip side ... the USSR developed its own project, but did not stand alone against everyone. He was simply killed with the help of his own leadership. China began to develop when it accepted the conditions for joining a foreign project. Trillions of dollars and a huge number of off-the-shelf technologies have been invested in China. I am sure that the people who made the decision about such investments took care of the insurance .. China, of course, also does not bast! And he wants to rise as a state, and he does it well, but still he is part of the project. When the Moor does his work, they will leave him or at least they will not allow him to develop, as is now happening with Russia.
    With uv. Alexander 1958
  8. mind1954
    mind1954 13 July 2012 04: 09
    +1
    In China, the NEP after War Communism! NEP fulfilled its task
    and now the question begins, which way to go next ?!
    If the ruling class succumbs to the temptation to continue along the path
    State capitalism, that is, the danger that quantity
    will go into quality, and there will be a restoration of capitalism !!!
    Then the threat could arise that he would simply tear China apart, as
    centrifugal forces! Since the hoop holding everything together
    at the moment is an ideology !!!
    There are two ways.
    State Monopolized Capitalism,
    as in the USSR, BUT WITH THE MARKET! Then you have to eliminate
    private capital! We’ll have to somehow agree on the party and the standing
    behind her army with the Office of Administration
    on liability for economic performance
    in market conditions ?!
    Another way.
    Cancel private equity. Try to move on to Socialism.
    Introduce socialist production relations.
    To do this, take from AXA one-man management in enterprises,
    leaving him executive power and transferring legislative
    the proletariat - ordinary workers, at all levels, right
    to the workplace, with full control over the work of the administration
    and with the full economic responsibility of everyone,
    for the results of the enterprise !!!
    I don’t know if the population is ready for this or not? Although, these are principles
    cooperatives that were born according to the laws of "negation-negation"
    back in the last century in the bowels of capitalism!
    It would be nice to create a system of Soviets from the workplace to the very top!
    According to the territorial - production principle!
    Then at different levels economic
    activities of citizens on the property of the Soviets and under their control,
    in different forms of organization: individual, group, family,
    collective !!!
    I do not know, unfortunately, the specific situation in China?
  9. Magadan
    Magadan 13 July 2012 05: 02
    +1
    I can only wish the Chinese success, and I am terribly afraid if Western crowd control technologists can knock our peoples head-on. There have been too many screams about the "Chinese threat" lately. At the same time, China now with might and main is climbing into Africa, because there are resources and cheap labor and a huge sales market for Chinese consumer goods in the future.
    So, I hope that the Chinese people are smart and will not rock their boat. And if so, then the sunset of the world liberal policeman is just around the corner.
    1. Sanches
      Sanches 13 July 2012 10: 03
      0
      According to the Ministry of Commerce of China, by March, when the military operation began, 75 large Chinese companies were working in Libya, they entered into contracts for $ 18 billion. Chinese companies expect huge losses due to military operations in Libya.
      Gaddafi seems to be a really good reason to deal with China, which in recent years has literally bought up the entire African continent. If in 1995 China’s trade with Africa was $ 6 billion, then in 2010 it exceeded $ 130 billion. According to the South African Standard Bank, by 2015, China’s direct investment in African countries alone will reach $ 50 billion. China now receives from Africa has 28% of oil imports, and this figure will increase: Chinese companies acquire the largest fields there one after another.
      China's expansion into Africa is purposeful and well-organized. So that Chinese companies are more willing to develop the mineral resources of Africa, they are lending to banks at low interest rates with state support, and the specially created China-Africa Development Fund (assets - $ 5 billion) covers investment risks. In most African countries, China has permanent trade missions. The Sino-African Chamber of Commerce has been opened in Beijing, negotiations are underway to create a free trade zone with the states of southern Africa. China intends to create five free economic zones in Africa, and the first has already been created in the "copper belt" of Zambia.
      Along with economic influence, China has gained powerful political weight in Africa. He builds roads and schools there, lends to African governments, and increasingly dictates his own rules. And, naturally, it stumbles upon the discontent of the Americans, who cannot boast of the same. The IMF got a significant click on the nose at the end of 2008: after spending several years discussing a loan agreement with the Government of Angola, IMF officials on the eve of its signing learned that this country had already received a cheap Chinese long-term loan of $ 2 billion and did not need its help. The same thing was repeated in Chad, Nigeria, Sudan, Ethiopia, Uganda.

      http://www.daokedao.ru/2011/06/17/amerikanskaya-vojna-s-kitaem/
      Chinese business has become too independent, and most likely the world monopolists will try to subjugate it to themselves again with the help of a well-run revolution.
      Just do not understand, in any such three wars, China defeated America ??
  10. gregor6549
    gregor6549 14 July 2012 13: 07
    +1
    In China, the most effective system of relations between the state and business has been formed at the moment, which already shows stunning results in many areas of China's life. For example, in just 10 years, China has managed to build an exceptionally developed road infrastructure whose quality level is ahead of the famous German autobahns. And this was done simply and quickly, projects of these roads were imposed on private business voluntarily, but it was envisaged that the roads would be paid and leased to investors for long periods and deducted a certain part of the profit from the fare to the budget. In this case, citizens could make a choice. Either use these roads and pay for it, or lag around and free of charge. Everyone won. And in the defense industry, China also managed to combine the interests of private owners and the state. That is, the state exercises tight control over the defense industry, and provides its intelligence with information about the latest technologies from all over the world. finances the development and manufacture of military products, but everything else (conformity of the level of production to customer requirements, quality and quantity of products, etc.) is entirely on the shoulders of a private trader whose head may not be held on these shoulders if he does not ensure this. Naturally, the profits from arms exports are also divided between the private trader and the state, allowing the private trader to raise the level of production and invite high-class and highly paid specialists from all over the world. Some specialists, however, disappear without a trace after the execution of contracts, but what to do ... production costs, so to speak